Rate Their Chances- Smash Ultimate Day 353: Geno (Mario RPG) as playable and Kracko (Kirby) as a boss

BowserKing

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Feb 16, 2019
Messages
339
Location
winnipeg
Jon Kazama

Chance: 10%. Heihachi will most likely be there before Jon, so this narrows the chance a bit. Competition is another main concern, but we have been surprised before.

Want: 50%. He would be a fun character to play however. But of course, Heihachi would be the main Tekken Rep, if we get one.

Noms: 2 for King Boo and 3 for Concept: Pokeball Pokémon Promotion
 

Artix

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Jul 9, 2018
Messages
254
Jin Kazama

Chance: 15%
When it comes to a Tekken rep in Smash, there are two characters that are most likely to represent the franchise: Heihachi Mishima and Jin Kazama. While it is pretty obvious that they would pick Heihachi due to Sakurai initially considering him back in Smash 4, to say Jin would not get in before Heihachi is kind of an understatement. Yeah sure, Heihachi has appeared in some crossovers but so is Jin and granted, some of these crossovers also features Heihachi alongside him, but Jin has been the main focus in some of these crossovers (Namco X Capcom, Project X Zone 1&2 in particular. He also appears in the front cover of the aforementioned games as well, expect for PXZ2, where he was replaced with Kazuya). Not to mention, Devil Jin (not a character, just his fighting style and his outfit that you can use on the Character Creation) appeared in Soul Calibur 5 as well. This really shows that they really care Jin just as much as they care for Heihachi.

So, in a situation where they can't have Heihachi in the game (which I highly doubt would happen, I gotta admit), then Jin is their secondary choice. But being from Bandai Namco, he really faces competition from other series like Tales, Dark Souls and many more. Plus, the whole 'whether Bamco will have a second fighter in Smash or not' and 'Tekken characters are harder to implement in Smash' statements are still in effect, so who knows at this point.

Want: 90%
I would really appreciate it if Bamco were to put a Tekken character in Smash. While I'll be fine if it's Heihachi representing Tekken, it would pretty cool to give Jin the spotlight in Smash, just this once. That would make my dream come true as he's my most wanted character in Smash, but I can understand why they would have Heihachi first before him and I'll accept him, even if it means having Jin as the next Tekken rep.

Prediction:
Velvet Crowe - 5.22%

Nomination:
Ryo Hazuki x5
 

SKX31

Smash Ace
Joined
Feb 22, 2019
Messages
638
Location
Sweden
Jöns Kazama: (A Møøse once bit my sister... bork bork bork!)

Chance: 15 %

Okay, lets play Devil's Advocate for someone with the, uhm, Devil Gene? Yes, we're going there.

Yes, Heihachi will be the frontrunner, no doubt, but I could see Jin getting in. He shares the Devil Gene with his beloved (natch) dad, but Jin's the one who has essentially two characters in your Tekken CSS. If anything the Devil Gene might be a major leg up on Heihachi because it provides a very important gameplay element. Not just an obvious Up B (which is one place where Sakurai might've possibly stumbled with Heihachi) but also LAZOR BEAMS in addition to the Mishima moves.

It also depends on what Harada has in mind going forward with Tekken. Yes, Tekken 7's story can be described as "Oh **** we gotta resolve this in an epic fashion! Also, Akuma.", but depending on if Heihachi takes a backseat or not that could be brought up in any possible Sakurai / Harada talks.

His negatives are already stated, and again, Heihachi is the frontrunner. Jin might not be the deepest character, but he's an intriguing dark horse.

Want: 50 %

Not my favorite Tekken character (that goes to Kuma / King / Heihachi / Alisa / Jack robots), but I don't have much of anything against Jin. Theme? Check. Moves? Check. Style? Well, he's a Walking Shirtless Scene, so... check I guess? This might not be the thread to go deeper into that rabbit hole...

Noms: Lara Croft x5

Velvet Crowe Prediction: 5.63 %
 
Joined
May 6, 2019
Messages
1,566
Location
Nowhere (no, not the Islands)
So if Jin = Jon and Jon = Kira, then Jin = Kira?

Chance: 10%
At this point, everyone has pretty much drilled the point down already: if any Tekken character is making it, it's probably Heihachi. He's the mascot and a favorite of the developers and has been namedropped by Sakurai in regards to Bamco characters. And even if it wasn't Heihachi, Kazuya would probably have priority over Jin. Don't get me wrong, the potential is still there, it's just that Jin doesn't seem like the biggest contender for Tekken.

Want: Abstain
Don't know enough about Jin to rate him, I feel.

Predictions
Velvet Crowe: 8.26%

Nominations
[Rerate] Sora x 5
 
Joined
May 7, 2015
Messages
869
Jon !?

Chance- 25%
Want- 90%

Jin is one of my favorite fighting game characters ever. Him making it in Smash, as unlikely as it is would be pretty bad ass. Also thanks to his Devil powers he'd probably fit in Smash better than other Tekken characters.

Nominations: Euden x5
 

DrifloonEmpire

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Aug 2, 2019
Messages
474
Jin Kazama

Chance: 15% - We are more than overdue for another Namco rep, I'm surprised they're being conservative with their character additions. While he isn't as desired as Heihachi, he doesn't have a returning Mii costume to worry about, and as Heihachi's Japanese VA has passed away it presents a problem unless they are able to use prerecorded lines for him. I don't know a ton about Tekken, but Jin seems like a logical choice of we don't get Heihachi. However, one of Sakurai's reasons for not including Heihachi in the past was because he was unable to replicate the Tekken mechanics faithfully, a problem that would hurt Jin as well. Furthermore those recent Tales trademarks could be a blow to him if they end up being related to Smash. Still, Terry showed us that we can't limit our scope to "expected" characters, so Jin could surprise us all.

Want: 5% - I don't have much of an attachment to Tekken, but I'd still be more interested in him than a Tales or Soul Calibur rep. Furthermore, my friends and I used to make custom characters in SC5 and a lot of the ones I made used Jin's playstyle, so there's a small connection there. Still, our next Namco rep would likely be our last, so if that's the case I'd personally rather have The Prince of All Cosmos from Katamari, who's my most wanted character by far.


Nominations:
[Rerate] Dovahkiin x5

Predictions:
Velvet Crowe - 4.29%
 
Last edited:
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
6,176
Kyo Kusanagi x155
Amaterasu x137
Zhao Yun (Dynasty Warriors) x135
[Rerate] Micaiah x130
Kratos x128
Captain Rainbow x127
Lara Croft x120

150 - 101

Farmer (Harvest Moon/Story of Seasons) x118
Rundas x115
Ninten x115
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x115
9-Volt x110
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x105

100 - 51

Aloy x100
Blaze the Cat x100
Concept: Valve rep x95
Boss: Kracko x95
Frogger x85
Glover x85
Noctis Lucis Caelum x80
Sunflower (Plants vs. Zombies) x80
[Rerate] Arle Nadja x80
Proto Man x75
Prince of Persia x75
X (Mega Man) x68
The Horrible Goose (Untitled Goose Game) x65
Brian (Quest 64) x60
Concept: Any grass-type starter x60
[Rerate] Dovahkiin x60
Papyrus x56
Decidueye x53

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Reporter & Wrestler x50
Thrall (Warcraft) x45
[Rerate] Bandana Dee x40
Sol Badguy x40
Concept: No more stages beyond the Pass x35
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x30
Riesz (Mana) x30
[Rerate] Steve x25
[Rerate] Sora x25
Ryo Hazuki x25
Concept: League of Legends rep x25

Under 25

[Rerate] Heihachi x20
Earthworm Jim x19
The Blob (De Blob) x15
[Rerate] Geno x15
Concept: First-parties after the Fighter Pass x15
[Rerate] Dante x12
Chun-Li x11
Giygas x10
[Rerate] Lloyd Irving x10
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x10
Urbosa x9
King Boo x8
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x8
[Rerate] Quote x7
[Rerate] Tetromino x5
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Concept: Lord Fredrik as an Echo of K. Rool x5
Gordon Freeman x5
Akira Howard x5
[Rerate] Monokuma x5
[Rerate] Phoenix Wright x5
[Rerate] Rayman x5
Sackboy x5
Monokuma x4
Black Shadow x2

Micaiah and Kratos warp past Captain Rainbow and end the day in fourth and fifth place respectively. Lara Croft breaks her tie with Ninten and Rundas, keeping seventh place for herself.

Steve, Sora, Ryo Hazuki and League of Legends rep bust out of the under 25 club.

Today's newcomer is a rerate of Rayman, with 5 noms.
 
Joined
Jun 21, 2013
Messages
834
Location
New Jersey
ProtonJin

Chance: I'm gonna say it, just like everybody else. There is no world in which Heihachi is not the first Tekken character. 0% until Heihachi gets in. After that, Jin still has to compete with other characters to varying degrees, but his chances raise drastically... to around 20%.

Want: I'll abstain. I rarely hear talk of the guy and don't have an opinion of him. I will say that I think that Heihachi's higher fan demand makes me want him first, and Heihachi looks cooler in general, but I don't really care. I do also believe without first-hand experience with Tekken I cannot truly understand how he would play.

There's a typo, it should be Jin Kazama in the title. Arle Nadja x 5. I think Velvet will be underrated due to Lloyd and Yuri, but still have something solid like 6.39%.
 
Joined
Aug 13, 2018
Messages
618
Jin Kazama

Chance 1 - I don't expect this to happen at all. I have to think that Heihachi is probably the most likely Tekken character, but with the voice actor dying and the character being in one of Pac-Man's taunts I think we might not be getting any Tekken reps at all. I'm also not really sure that we're getting Namco characters since it seems like Pac-Man is there to rep the whole company. Only chance Jin has is if they decide they can't use Heihachi and want another Namco rep, but I don't think so.

Want 5 - Not that into anyone other than Heihachi from Tekken getting in

Prediction - Crowe 4.21

Noms:
Kratos x5
 
Joined
Mar 7, 2019
Messages
546
Location
Hulao Gate
Jin Cena

Chance: 16%

It's hard to estimate Jin's chances in Smash. We all know Sakurai has implied in the past that implementing Tekken's mechanics to Smash would be difficult, but with time passing by, we don't really know if that's the case anymore. Another thing that might hinder Jin's chances are the other 2 characters that could potentially be in Smash before him: Heihachi and Kazuya. As far as I know, all 3 of them are the main characters of Tekken and are usually on the covers of each Tekken related game ever. It's a triple threat, but Heihachi seems to be the most predictable of the 3 to be in Smash since Sakurai did consider Heihachi to be 1 of Bandai Namco's biggest icons when he was talking about Pac-Man or at least implied that to be the case. It's easy to see why Jin would probably get sidelined as a spirit in Smash since Heihachi has been the central focus of Tekken, but the only reason his chances aren't below 10% is because of the fact that he's 1 of the main faces of the franchise.

Want: 29%


Well, I'm still not huge on any Tekken character in Smash mainly because there's too many fisters Tekken in Smash doesn't really feel that special to me when compared to Soulcalibur or Guilty Gear as of late. With Soulcalibur, they were the 1 of, if not the first fighting game to popularize guest characters and even had Link in SCII, and with Guilty Gear, its style looks so good it'd be a travesty for Arc System Works to get ignored for a character in Smash. Tekken doesn't really stand out to me outside of the fact that it's the biggest 3D fighting game currently, and being a huge series won't always be a reason for me to want to see the franchise in Smash. As far as what I think of Jin, he's okay, but he would have to rely on a good trailer/showcase for me to get behind him in Smash since he doesn't excite me. If his moves or gimmick appeals to me, then I might be able to appreciate seeing him in Smash, but for now, I'd pass on seeing Jin in Smash.

Predictions:
Velvet: 22%


Noms:
Zhao Yun x5
 
Joined
Jun 22, 2019
Messages
246
Jin Kazama
Chance 15%:While Jin is likely, I don't see him getting over Heihachi since Heihachi is basically the mascot of tekken.
Want 20%:Jin would be a okay pick I guess.
Prediction: Velvet Crowe-5.50%
Nomination: The Blob X5
 
Joined
Jul 16, 2014
Messages
3,193
3DS FC
0189-8502-2597
NNID
WitchofKnowledge
Switch FC
SW-5227-6397-6112
Jon The Evil(Good) twin of Jin Kazama

Chance: 10%

Jin doesn't suffer the voice actor problem like heihachi does(and even then it seems moot now with that mobile collab). But they still share another more glaring problem. Translating Tekken's 3D mechanics into a 2d Fighter like Smash. Same thing I said with Heihachi, Sakurai wants to be very faithful with the 3rd party characters(unless you're Sonic). He was willing to cut Pac-Man if his Ghostly Adventures design was used. Sakurai's issues of adding Heihachi and by extent a Tekken character is not comparable to Ridley or Villager as their issues are far less of an issue.

Want: 20%. Like I said with Heihachi. My preferred Tekken character would be King.

Velvet Prediction: 10.66%

Nominate Sol Badguy x5
 
Joined
Aug 20, 2018
Messages
59
Jin Kazama
Chance: 5%
I have some serious doubts about Heihachi being passed over for a Tekken rep. Heihachi is the face of the game, it should be him.

Want: 0%
I have no experience with the character.

Noms: League of Legends rep x5
 
Joined
Aug 24, 2018
Messages
1,095
Location
Circhester
Switch FC
SW 0818-9732-6979
Jinny Jon Kazama
Chance: 0%
Want: Abstain

This is a character from an (almost) unrepresented franchise in Smash, who also isn't even the main character from said game. The closest thing we have to Tekken in Smash is Heihachi appearing in PAC-MAN's taunt, which is pretty sad. Plus, we JUST got Terry Bogard, and I doubt we're getting another fighting game character so soon.

Velvet Zerowe: 0.97%

Untitled Goose x5
 

Nquoid

Smash Ace
Joined
May 21, 2019
Messages
579
Kyo Kusanagi x155
Amaterasu x137
Zhao Yun (Dynasty Warriors) x135
[Rerate] Micaiah x130
Kratos x128
Captain Rainbow x127
Lara Croft x120

150 - 101

Farmer (Harvest Moon/Story of Seasons) x118
Rundas x115
Ninten x115
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x115
9-Volt x110
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x105

100 - 51

Aloy x100
Blaze the Cat x100
Concept: Valve rep x95
Boss: Kracko x95
Frogger x85
Glover x85
Noctis Lucis Caelum x80
Sunflower (Plants vs. Zombies) x80
[Rerate] Arle Nadja x80
Proto Man x75
Prince of Persia x75
X (Mega Man) x68
The Horrible Goose (Untitled Goose Game) x65
Brian (Quest 64) x60
Concept: Any grass-type starter x60
[Rerate] Dovahkiin x60
Papyrus x56
Decidueye x53

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Reporter & Wrestler x50
Thrall (Warcraft) x45
[Rerate] Bandana Dee x40
Sol Badguy x40
Concept: No more stages beyond the Pass x35
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x30
Riesz (Mana) x30
[Rerate] Steve x25
[Rerate] Sora x25
Ryo Hazuki x25
Concept: League of Legends rep x25

Under 25

[Rerate] Heihachi x20
Earthworm Jim x19
The Blob (De Blob) x15
[Rerate] Geno x15
Concept: First-parties after the Fighter Pass x15
[Rerate] Dante x12
Chun-Li x11
Giygas x10
[Rerate] Lloyd Irving x10
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x10
Urbosa x9
King Boo x8
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x8
[Rerate] Quote x7
[Rerate] Tetromino x5
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Concept: Lord Fredrik as an Echo of K. Rool x5
Gordon Freeman x5
Akira Howard x5
[Rerate] Monokuma x5
[Rerate] Phoenix Wright x5
[Rerate] Rayman x5
Sackboy x5
Monokuma x4
Black Shadow x2

Micaiah and Kratos warp past Captain Rainbow and end the day in fourth and fifth place respectively. Lara Croft breaks her tie with Ninten and Rundas, keeping seventh place for herself.

Steve, Sora, Ryo Hazuki and League of Legends rep bust out of the under 25 club.

Today's newcomer is a rerate of Rayman, with 5 noms.
Is there an archive of the DLC chance/want scores I can have a look at? I know you did the post when did the over/underrated characters
 
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
6,176
Is there an archive of the DLC chance/want scores I can have a look at? I know you did the post when did the over/underrated characters
In theory, every score should be on the OP in the first page, but we haven't been really updating that as often as we should. Aside from that, no, not really.

I do have every score on my computer, so when I get back home I can get you the whole file or any specific data you wanna see.
 

Flyboy

Smash Master
Joined
Aug 26, 2010
Messages
3,844
Location
Dayton, OH
Jin Kazama
Chance:
25%
Tekken is in an unusual position. It's a legendary fighting franchise that has earned its place in Smash. It has the side effect of having several viable options for a rep, mostly all Mishimas. Jin was the face for a while and has cool devil powers, is recognizable as part some of the most popular Tekken games, and once upon a time I'd have said he was one of my most-wanted Tekken reps. However, after Tekken 7, that changed and I'm sure it did for many others too.

Want: 25%
And that's because in Tekken 7, Heihachi really solidified himself back on top as THE Tekken rep. Now, this is the Jin post and I absolutely feel like he'd be hype and has a legit shot. Devil powers, Kung Fu, crazy specials, he has it all. But I can't help but want the badass old man more due to his provenance and personality. Still, any Tekken rep would make me happy.

Nominations: Heihachi x5
 

PapillonXtreme

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Jul 11, 2018
Messages
126
Jin Kazama

Chance: 20%
Let's face it, if there's any Tekken character in Smash that have the potential to go in, it's definitely Heihachi as he's the mascot of the series and has been used in crossovers involving Tekken. However, I'd be lying if I say Jin literally had no chance of getting in before Heihachi. Jin has been the face of Tekken 3 to 5, with Tekken 3 being the highest-selling Tekken game. He also appeared in crossovers as well (usually ones that had Heihachi on it) as well as Soul Calibur 5 as a Devil Jin costume set. He's like the secondary pick for Tekken should they ditch Heihachi for someone else. But he still has to face competition from Tales series, particularly Lloyd and Yuri. Besides, I'm pretty sure Sakurai is still facing difficulty in implementing their movesets into Smash and that really hurts their chances as well.

Want: 80%
I may have not played Tekken a lot, but I'm liking Jin as a character. He's one of the characters that I can relate to and his movesets involving the use of his Devil Form is going to be awesome. He may not be my most wanted character, but he's definitely on my top 5 characters that I want in Smash.

Prediction:
Velvet Crowe - 3.19%


Nomination:
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x5
 

Neosonic97

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Dec 18, 2018
Messages
202
Aw, damn it.

It's a bit off-topic, but I just realized, I missed my chance to mention that there was also a leak back in January that had Reimu in it. I'm pretty inclined to believe it since it's been accurate on most of the things it said so far, and nothing that definitely disproves it.

It mentioned three pairs of things: Dragon Quest Ports to the switch and Erdrick to promote that (Both confirmed), a Rare Replay Port to the switch and Banjo to promote it (Banjo confirmed), and Touhou ports to the switch and Reimu to promote it (Touhou ports confirmed, starting with AoCF).
 
Last edited:

Strider_Bond00J

Smash Champion
Joined
Jul 23, 2014
Messages
2,768
Location
Garreg Mach Monastery
Switch FC
2525-8699-9095
Ah yes, my favourite Tekken character - Jon Kazama.

Chance: 25%
Tekken is certainly one of the most popular fighting game franchises, but it's certainly not without challenge to bring to Smash so easily. I remember Heihachi was considered, but Sakurai couldn't figure out how to get Heihachi's moveset to fit Smash Bros perfectly. I can see a similar issue arising for Jin, however I think he might have a bit more of a push with some of the more fantastical elements to him, like the Devil Gene or Devil Jin abilities; in addition to his current moveset and playstyle.

I think the big issue would be trying to figure out how to perfectly represent a Tekken character in Smash. Tekken is a very different type of fighting game compared to Street Fighter and Fatal Fury/King of Fighters, so I think unless they figure out how to get that perfectly represented, the Mishima family might have a bit of trouble making the cut. That's not to say it hasn't been done before, since Heihachi has appeared in PSASBR with no problem. There's also competition from his own family too - Heihachi and Kazuya. Both of them are the antagonist/main focuses of the Tekken series, so they have a bit more of a 'main character' push, I guess (but the Mishima family's so screwed up it's hard to say who's good or evil at this point lol)

Want: 20%
I enjoy playing Tekken from time to time, but admittedly it's not my go-to fighting game series. Jin is a pretty interesting character and I could see him working in Smash, but I'd probably prefer Heihachi as the Tekken rep. Tekken's not too high on the series I want to see in Smash, but if it happens, I'd be okay with the addition. Unless for some reason we get NEGAN.

Nominations: Akira Howard X10.
 
Joined
Jul 29, 2014
Messages
909
Location
Duwang
Switch FC
SW 6027 0894 6117
Aw, damn it.

It's a bit off-topic, but I just realized, I missed my chance to mention that there was also a leak back in January that had Reimu in it. I'm pretty inclined to believe it since it's been accurate on most of the things it said so far, and nothing that definitely disproves it.

It mentioned three pairs of things: Dragon Quest Ports to the switch and Erdrick to promote that (Both confirmed), a Rare Replay Port to the switch and Banjo to promote it (Banjo confirmed), and Touhou ports to the switch and Reimu to promote it (Touhou ports confirmed, starting with AoCF).
Well there's no sign of Rare Replay coming and judging by Sakurai's words I don't think it will anytime soon. Also wasn't Erdrick already highly talked about even as early as January? Could likely just be piggybacking. Doubt Banjo also really was that hard of a guess.

We've had many leaks that didn't have definitive proof against them not turn out completely true in the past. Don't see why this one's any different.
 
Last edited:

Neosonic97

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Dec 18, 2018
Messages
202
God damn it. Talk about awkward timing. Literally just today, a certain drunk man (Read: ZUN) had an interview, where he outright stated he wanted Touhou characters in Smash. That PROBABLY could've changed Reimu's results a bit, considering one of the main counterpoints for Reimu would be that ZUN wouldn't want her in Smash. This says otherwise.

Here's the interview itself: https://touhougarakuta.com/interview/specialtaidan_zun_hiroyuki_10

And below is an approximate translation of a particular section. Even with the horrendously bad Google Translate, Smash is clearly mentioned:

ZUN said:
In addition, I would like characters from Touhou to appear in other games so Touhou can become more recognized. Naturally, I want them to appear in Smash Bros. (laughs) But that's something that I can't make happen by just thinking about it.
Well, I know I'm nominating Reimu again once her time's up, just because of this interview. What is it with the major developments for Reimu happening RIGHT after her day's over?!
 
Last edited:

Neosonic97

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Dec 18, 2018
Messages
202
Um, doesn't that deconfirm her all together?
That's the argument we used with Hat Kid, so same logic should apply here...
I mean, weren't the same things said about Banjo and an SNK rep, under an NDA no less? And look where those went. Of course, there's also the question of if the post-pass DLC is planned or not. I'm not wholly convinced on that argument.
 
Last edited:

Calamitas

Smash Lord
Joined
Aug 17, 2018
Messages
1,482
Location
Germany
Mr Jonathan Shrek-ken

Chance: 10%
I'll admit right away that I have very limited to knowledge on Tekken, so I'm basing this mostly of what I've seen other people rate this character, plus my own feelings on the matter. Seeing as Heihachi is apparently the mascot or something of the series, and he's already in Pac-Man's taunt to "represent" it, it doesn't seem to likely that they'd go for another guy to me. Still, 10% because the usual "who knows".

Want: 0%
Thanks, but I'm good on fighting game characters in Smash for another while.

Nominating Amaterasu x5 (let's see if I can get her to the #1 spot before the next purge)

Predicting Velvet Crow to be around 0.9%
 
Top