Rate Their Chances- Smash Ultimate Day 349: First Party characters after the Fighters Pass

Joined
Oct 14, 2016
Messages
539
Shulk

Chances: 90%
Only way he is not back is if he gets replaced by Rex or maybe Elma, which I do not see happening although I could see one of them joining Shulk on the roster.

Want: 90%
Never played Xenoblade but want to and Shulk is a fun fighter to play as and the face of the franchise.

Nomination: Linkle X5
 
Joined
Jul 12, 2014
Messages
19,183
Location
An elevator
lol this might be the highest rating yet. Doing another "rating because no matter what the facts of what smash Switch winds up being it doesnt really matter"

Chance: 99%
No logical reason to be cut. The Marth of the series, and one on the rise too. The only way would be from some pretty severe cutting.

Want: 100%
XC1 is one of my top 3 favorite games of all time. Shulk was pretty cool in that game and was my main for most of Smash 3ds's lifespan. Would love for his moves to not be ass though


Noms
Elma x5
:061:
 
Joined
Jan 7, 2013
Messages
1,329
Shulk
Chance: 96% - Shulk has pretty much everything going for him. He’s a very popular character with a unique move pool who also represents an extremely well recieved game. I’d be shocked if he got cut.
Want: 80%

Skull Kid prediction: 6%

Nominations: New story mode x5.
 

PeridotGX

Smash Champion
Joined
Jun 8, 2017
Messages
2,941
Location
That Distant Shore
NNID
Denoma5280
Switch FC
2036-9032-5151
Hulk

Odds: 100% No way he's getting cut

Want: 75%. He's a cool vetran, but I don't really care personally

Nominations: Kamex x4, Doesn't-Matter Blade x1
 

MrElectroG64

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Jun 26, 2014
Messages
309
Location
PNF-404
Shulk

Chances: 99%
I have no doubt in my mind that Shulk is coming back. Only way he dosen't is if he, well, just doesn't. For "Sakurai" reasons.

Want: 40%
I've personally never cared about him, but I hate to see him go.


Nominations: Marx x5
 

Xenigma

Smash Ace
Joined
Jun 12, 2013
Messages
831
Location
Charleston, SC
NNID
Xenigma
On one hand, yeah, this day kind of feels like a waste. On the other, he's a veteran who isn't on the no-vote list, so by extension we really should be doing a vote for him like all the other eligible veterans. Instead of pouting about it, let's make it meaningful:

Shulk
Chance - 100%

Like I said last night, I've been trying to think of good reasons Shulk wouldn't return, and as of right now I've still got nothing. He's unique, is the only rep for his series, is from a series that is actively growing in importance to Nintendo, is from a series Sakurai is known to like, and has no good reason to be replaced by a XC2 character in particular. In fact, to drive it home, let's look at all the veterans who have ever been cut and why (as far as we know):

Clones - Dr. Mario, Pichu, Roy, Wolf, Young Link
Licensing Issues - Snake
Technical Difficulties - Ice Climbers
Removed Transformations - Squirtle, Ivysaur
Cut Late in Development - Mewtwo

Shulk isn't a clone, so that's out. He's a Nintendo-owned character, so no licensing issues. He doesn't have an unusual moveset like Ice Climbers, so technical difficulties seems a stretch at best. He's not a transform character, so no worries there. The only thing that could remotely apply is being cut late like Mewtwo was in Brawl, and he ended up returning anyway as the first DLC character of Sm4sh. Considering Mewtwo was from a series with multiple other unique veterans and Shulk isn't, I doubt he is considered that expendable, nor do I think they want to remove any unique veteran without a very good reason.

Really, the only way Shulk gets cut is unpredictable elements, such as Smash for Switch being a major reboot of the series and/or the launch roster being substantially smaller than Sm4sh's. Considering such an event would effectively invalidate this entire thread, I don't think that should affect this or any other rating. Really, the biggest hurdle for Shulk getting into Smash was Xenoblade in general getting into Smash, and that hurdle was cleared in Sm4sh. Now he's here, and nearly as I can tell, he isn't going anywhere.

Want - 50%
I'm not going to say Shulk shouldn't be in Smash at this point. Unfortunately, old grudges die hard: back in 2014 I was unhappy because it felt like Shulk took the character slot that Isaac deserved to have, and, justified or no, I can't get past that thought while Isaac remains in Smash limbo. Sure, Shulk should stay on the roster, but do I want him? Not yet.

Nominations - Bayonetta x5
I think it's safe to say Lucina will be rated soon, and with low-vote characters theoretically being purged from the nominations any day now, let's give a bump to another veteran that should provide some interesting discussion.

Skull Kid Predictions - 7.5% Chance, 37.5% Want
I missed Zelda newcomer day, so maybe there is more expectation here than I would think, but this feels like the sort of character that will attract quite a few 0s and 1s.
 
Last edited:

Nimbostratus

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Apr 14, 2014
Messages
419
Shulk
Chance- 98.5%
Don't see why another Xenoblade character would hurt his chances. Compounding the fact that this game might just be an enhanced port/semi sequel, I find it remarkably unlikely that he would leave.
Want- 100%
Why would I want him gone?

Skull Kid Predictions- 12%

Nominations:
Ashley x10
 

Kitty-chan

Happy Pyromaniac Neko
Joined
Aug 8, 2015
Messages
201
Location
Buried 10 feet under nya
3DS FC
1203-9800-8781
Was looking at the rankings... and I need to nyo; am I going crazy, or shouldn't Decidueye having a score of 57.87% be nyabove Takamaru who has a score of 57.56% in newcomer chances nya? Cause it's nyot...
 
Last edited:

Celever

Smash Rookie
Joined
Jun 2, 2013
Messages
5
Shulk

Chance: 100%
Popular, representative of one of Nintendo's new big breakout series. Is as likely to return in Smash 5 as Olimar was likely to return in Smash 4, and that obviously happened. Not that it shouldn't have, but it's an obviously similar set of circumstances between them because they were both incredibly heavily requested by fans before they were first introduced into Smash, both series were new Nintendo IPs with strong sales and company backing, and both had a lot of moveset potential. It just doesn't make sense at all for Shulk to be cut at all.

Want: 100%
I don't want any cuts. All non-clones have reason to remain as they represent important parts of a franchise or interesting movesets, and clones require minimal effort to include so there's little reason not to.

Nominating Travis Touchdown x5
 

Cycrum

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Apr 1, 2018
Messages
125
Shulk (Veteran)
Chance: 100%
Shulk represents a new IP that has performed quite well before and since Smash 4's release, so I see Shulk like some others would: the Marth of this new IP. Because he happened to be the first representative of this new IP and his inclusion in Smash 4 was quite well-received, I see no reason why he would be cut since the only characters to have been cut so far are either clones, third-party reps, separated transformation characters, or simply low-priority characters. I highly doubt they'd put Shulk on the backburner due to the only characters to be cut from this were all from preexisting franchises. I definitely think that he will return as a veteran in Smash for Switch.

Want: 100%
I've personally never played any of the Xenoblade Chronicles games, but, from seeing him in action, he is definitely a very unique character who is quite fun to watch, especially with the Monado Arts in play. I also hate when characters in general get cut.

Nominations:
Steve (Minecraft) x3 (yes, really)
Spyro x1
Bomberman x1
 
Last edited:
Joined
Apr 10, 2015
Messages
1,822
Want - 50%
I'm not going to say Shulk shouldn't be in Smash at this point. Unfortunately, old grudges die hard: back in 2014, I was unhappy because it felt like Shulk took the character slot that Isaac deserved to have, and, justified or no, I can't get past that thought while Isaac remains in Smash limbo. Sure, Shulk should stay on the roster, but do I want him? Not yet.
I know convincing you to let go of a grudge may be difficult or impossible but as an Isaac and Shulk fan, I feel I should try. There are no slots mate if Shulk wasn't in the game it is far more likely we just would have one less character on the roster than having Isaac. Plus Shulk has nothing similar to Isaac and neither does Robin for that matter. His inclusion in no way prevented Isaac nor prevents him from joining in the future. In fact, Shulk being on the roster shows Sakurai is more willing to accept niche characters than he has been before, so I say him being included actually helps Isaac join the next Smash.
 
Last edited:

Starcutter

Resident Beedrill
Joined
Dec 13, 2012
Messages
7,220
Location
Viridian Forest
3DS FC
1908-0357-9077
NNID
Legendofrob1
WOW people overrated Decidueye, it's almost like they thought he's the only choice for pokemon. (He's not.)

Shulk: 95%

I really don't see him getting cut. Since Smash 4, Xenoblade was ported to both New 3DS AND Wii U. Even in "relevance" he's just as relevant to a Xenoblade X character, and some people are all over that. Also, he's extremely popular now, and the sequels were both regarded as excellent games. No reason to cut the protagonist from the original.

Want: 110% (100% if going overboard is banned)

I don't just want Shulk back, I want him back and him to be GOOD. I want his basic attacks to be quicker, stronger and overall have better utility than his current moves. This might be biased, but if Shulk is top 5 next game I'd love the heck out of that.

Skull Kid: 14.3%

Nominations
Snip & Clip x5
 
Last edited:

Xenigma

Smash Ace
Joined
Jun 12, 2013
Messages
831
Location
Charleston, SC
NNID
Xenigma
I know convincing you to let go of a grudge may be difficult or impossible but as an Isaac and Shulk fan, I feel I should try. There are no slots mate if Shulk wasn't in the game it is far more likely we just would have one less character on the roster than having Isaac. Plus Shulk has nothing similar to Isaac and neither does Robin for that matter. In fact, Shulk being on the roster shows Sakurai is more willing to accept niche characters than he has been before, so I say him being included actually helps Isaac join the next Smash.
I get that and understand my feelings are likely based on a faulty premise: in fact, there were people back in RTC for Sm4sh saying much the same sort of thing, both pre- and post-reveal. Still, Isaac's exclusion from Sm4sh is a topic I feel very strongly about, and Shulk's inclusion in the roster happens to be the easiest thing to blame. It's no coincidence that I also have difficulty being excited for Robin, a sword-wielding mage much like Isaac, despite otherwise being a big fan of Awakening. I wish I could put aside my feelings on the matter and view Shulk simply as Shulk, but it's been four years and so far I just can't.
 
Joined
Apr 10, 2015
Messages
1,822
I get that and understand my feelings are likely based on a faulty premise: in fact, there were people back in RTC for Sm4sh saying much the same sort of thing, both pre- and post-reveal. Still, Isaac's exclusion from Sm4sh is a topic I feel very strongly about, and Shulk's inclusion in the roster happens to be the easiest thing to blame. It's no coincidence that I also have difficulty being excited for Robin, a sword-wielding mage much like Isaac, despite otherwise being a big fan of Awakening. I wish I could put aside my feelings on the matter and view Shulk simply as Shulk, but it's been four years and so far I just can't.
I get that it's hard to like a character that seems to prevent your favorite character from joining but I'd just personally feel that it's easier to look at why the character doesn't prevent the inclusion of who you want. Like for instance, some people claim Duck Hunt is in so there's no reason to add Banjo & Kazooie, my most wanted. I could have hated him but it's just easier to look and see that the similarities are superficial at best. I just don't think hating or blaming a character is ever beneficial. It's fine if you never like Shulk I just think it's a little sad to hate him for something that's not his fault, but if that helps you understand why Isaac isn't in yet that's cool too.
 

Nerd Saga Nate

Part-Time Youtuber, Full Time Nerd
Joined
Feb 5, 2013
Messages
6,645
Location
Bored
Shulk
Chance: 98% -
He's super unique, popular, his series is on the rise much like Fire Emblem, and he's one of the most popular additions (even though he's not the greatest.) No reason to be cut.
Want: 100% - I love Shulk and Xenoblade. Keep him.

Prediction: Skull Kid
Chance: 21.91%
Want: 80.32%

Nominations:

Sora x5
 

KingofPhantoms

The Spook Factor
Joined
Feb 12, 2013
Messages
29,130
Location
Southern California
3DS FC
1006-1145-8453
NNID
Ravenant
Shulk Chance: 99%

Why would Shulk be cut? Apart from it being unlikely that a whole series gets their one character cut (the only time this has happened so far is with the Ice Climbers, due to hardware issues, and Snake, likely due to legal issues) the character and franchise has seen an immense rise in popularity over the years, helped of course by his addition to Smash 4. He's not a low effort clone either, there's no good reason why he'd be low priority otherwise. The only way he could possibly fail to get in is if tons of cuts become necessary for some reason, and the roster gets purged. That in itself is already very unlikely to happen, and even if it did, lower effort clones would still more than likely be in greater danger than him or other more unique characters.

Want: 100%

Xenoblade's pretty awesome (still need to beat it, however) and Shulk is actually one of my mains. I'd be very unhappy in the event was cut.

Nominations: Tetra x5
 
Last edited:

ZeroSoul

Zerp
Moderator
Premium
Writing Team
Joined
Sep 28, 2014
Messages
4,375
Location
Candler, North Carolina
Shulk
Chances: 98%
I mean, Mewtwo got cut so who knows, anything's possible.
Want: 90%
I don't care much for Shulk personally, but I don't want to see anyone's mains get cut, and Shulk being cut would be an actual tragedy for Xenoblade's representation, don't do it please.
That said though, if they don't fix his Jigglypuff grab release kill confirm I'm going to be very upset.

Predictions: Skull Kid 14%
Nominations: Steve (Minecraft) x 2
Dragonite (Pokemon) x 3
 
Last edited:

Xenigma

Smash Ace
Joined
Jun 12, 2013
Messages
831
Location
Charleston, SC
NNID
Xenigma
I get that it's hard to like a character that seems to prevent your favorite character from joining but I'd just personally feel that it's easier to look at why the character doesn't prevent the inclusion of who you want. Like for instance, some people claim Duck Hunt is in so there's no reason to add Banjo & Kazooie, my most wanted. I could have hated him but it's just easier to look and see that the similarities are superficial at best. I just don't think hating or blaming a character is ever beneficial. It's fine if you never like Shulk I just think it's a little sad to hate him for something that's not his fault, but if that helps you understand why Isaac isn't in yet that's cool too.
Two things to that. One, it's not that I hate Shulk, I just can't find any passion for him at the present time. I agree he didn't really do anything wrong per se, he just happens to be the generic JRPG protagonist that got in first despite Golden Sun having been around much longer. In a perfect world both would be playable based on their own merits, but sadly we aren't in that world yet. Here's hoping that by the time Smash for Switch launches we're seeing Shulk and Isaac and Rex all battling it out as it should be.

Two, seriously, comparing Duck Hunt to Banjo and Kazooie? I guess there is an extremely superficial similarity, but now I'm just amused by the idea that someone thinks one of those two being in has any bearing whatsoever on the other. At least Xenoblade and Golden Sun are the same genre. :p
 
Joined
Apr 10, 2015
Messages
1,822
Two things to that. One, it's not that I hate Shulk, I just can't find any passion for him at the present time. I agree he didn't really do anything wrong per se, he just happens to be the generic JRPG protagonist that got in first despite Golden Sun having been around much longer. In a perfect world both would be playable based on their own merits, but sadly we aren't in that world yet. Here's hoping that by the time Smash for Switch launches we're seeing Shulk and Isaac and Rex all battling it out as it should be.

Two, seriously, comparing Duck Hunt to Banjo and Kazooie? I guess there is an extremely superficial similarity, but now I'm just amused by the idea that someone thinks one of those two being in has any bearing whatsoever on the other. At least Xenoblade and Golden Sun are the same genre. :p
It happens ALLL the time. I guess because it's a mammal with a bird companion they're exactly the same. I dunno man people have some weird "logic" at times.
 
Last edited:

TCT~Phantom

Smash Champion
Joined
Dec 10, 2013
Messages
2,283
NNID
TCT~Phantom
Shulk

Double 100s

Literally the only reason I did not put him on the initial list of do not rate is because I wanted to be conservative with that list.

Nominating Spyro x5

Day over, calcs in the morning
 
Joined
Jun 1, 2015
Messages
52
Shulk

Chance: 85%

There seems very little reason to cut him, even if Rex & Pyra make it in who's going to complain that Xenoblade has 2 characters in Smash, it's arguably gotten even more popular since Smash 4 development? However, there's still a chance, and characters have been cut for less (looking at you Wolf)

Want: 75%
He's a relatively unique veteran celebrating a relatively new IP.

Nominate Ganon x5
 

Ura

Advance Wars is the new Mother 3
Joined
Feb 4, 2014
Messages
12,139
Switch FC
SW-2772-0149-6703
Shulk

Double 100s

Literally the only reason I did not put him on the initial list of do not rate is because I wanted to be conservative with that list.

Nominating Spyro x5

Day over, calcs in the morning
Well to be fair you did have Jiggs on that list despite the fact that she was almost cut in like every Smash game. I would say Shulk is a safer bet to return than Puff.
 

Ghirahilda

♥Smash Beauty♥
Joined
Aug 6, 2012
Messages
1,196
Location
Sorocaba
NNID
Marcelinho21
Shulk

Chance: 99.9%
There is only 0,1% of chance of him being cut

Want: 100%
Please let him stay

Nominations: Octopath Traveller character x5

TCT~Phantom TCT~Phantom are you having trouble making the front page on point? Where is Layton's scores? Also the day count on your third post stopped on Dilon. Are you sure ou can keep this thread on task? Sorry if I'm being rude. Just questionig
 
Last edited:
Joined
Oct 11, 2007
Messages
1,465
Location
Brooklyn, NY
3DS FC
4828-5479-7054
NNID
AzureJay89
Switch FC
2162-7423-7143
Shulk

100% Chance
100% Want

No cuts please especially to literally brand new rising star franchises with popular characters. Xenoblade is a breakout franchise and earns its rights to both Shulk and a newcomer tbh.
 

andimidna

Smash Master
Joined
Dec 22, 2013
Messages
3,330
Location
Gusty garden galaxy
I prob don’t have much time aaa
Shulk:
Poses no problems. Still most recognizable of series.
See: Marth
Rex can be made different just fine.

Chance: 99%
Want: 95%

No reason to leave. I didn’t end up playing as him because he was pretty bad, but a buffed Shulk would be interesting.

Skull Kid prediction: 13.5%
I feel like he’ll be just barely above Midna

x4 Azura
x1 Sylux
 

Scamper52596

Smash Lord
Premium
Joined
Apr 4, 2014
Messages
1,157
Location
Florida
Shulk

Chance: 96%
Really no reason to cut him. He's the first main character in the now fairly popular Xenoblade franchise, and it's very likely that he'll stick around to represent it. I highly doubt he'll be getting replaced by any of the new main characters from the last couple Xenoblade games.
I'll give the Monado boy a very likely rating of 96%. If he can see the future, I'd bet his future in Smash seems pretty clear.

Want: 100%
I love the first Xenoblade game. I also enjoy playing Shulk in Smash from time to time. I'd want to see him return.

Prediction
Skull Kid: 11.4%

Nominations
Tetra x 3
Toon Zelda x 2
 

TheDukeofDorks

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Mar 9, 2018
Messages
193
Shulk

Chance: 99%

The only reason it's not 100 is because there are no such things as absolutes when it comes to Smash speculation. Shulk's one of the safer characters to return imo, even if the roster is getting a revamp. He represents his own series, is the most popular character from said series, and features one of the most unique mechanics in the game.

Want: 100%

Easily my favorite newcomer from Smash for Wii U, I would hate to see him go.

Nominating Pig Ganon x5

Skull Kid Prediction: 15%
 

TCT~Phantom

Smash Champion
Joined
Dec 10, 2013
Messages
2,283
NNID
TCT~Phantom
Shulk
97.65% Chance
88.85% Want

Shulk got high scores, not really that surprising. Turns out most people think he was a lock. Highest scoring vet so far, then again he is our first non cut vet.

Today we shall be rating Skull Kid, please rate him in chance and want. Also predict the scores for Doomguy.

Also the first page has been updated, noms list is at its most current, if PK_Wonder PK_Wonder @ShinyRegice has a more current noms list I will update it with that. Everything else should be in order.


Also since BluePikmin11 BluePikmin11 asked for a schedule, here is my proposal. Starting tomorrow, I will take the highest seven scores and make them scheduled days. I will repeat that each week. Please let me know if you all want more structured days like that.


Also as one more note, I have decided that the nominations list will have a purge of any nominations under 25 at the end of the month. I will remind people of this, especially in the last week of the month. The primary motivation for this is the fact the noms list often looks cluttered with several low noms. I will not do purges like this often, only every few months.
 
Joined
Dec 23, 2012
Messages
2,833
Location
France
3DS FC
1848-2225-1295
NNID
FinalSmashGamer
Switch FC
SW-1567-9471-9502
Lost Woods' guardian

Chance: 40%
Among the few other recurrent characters Zelda has, Skull Kid has the best chances, as the main antagonist of one of the most favorite installments by the fans, who also appeared in the previous entry and in Twilight Princess (though he may not be the same in this game). Not to mention the numerous references to Majora's Mask not only in the latter Zelda games like A Link Between Worlds but also in other Nintendo games like Animal Crossing: New Leaf.

Want: 0%
Like with Midna, I have nothing against him, but like during the other days related to Zelda content:
[...] I prefer to see under-repped series like Donkey Kong and rising ones like Xenoblade getting newcomers first rather than a series which has been obscenely over-milked those last 7 years outside of Smash.
Having :4link: who is likely to have a moveset overhaul based from Breath of the Wild is more than enough already.

Noms:
Music: Final Destination (Ver. 2) x5

Doomguy prediction: 20.1%
 

AlphaSSB

Bring Back Star Fox
Joined
Jun 19, 2014
Messages
2,731
Location
United States
3DS FC
0018-1370-8449
Switch FC
0691-1639-9303
Skull Kid

Chance: 10% - Made it in as an Assist Trophy, but which is arguably a good sign, but I don't see him becoming anything more than that. The only way I see him getting in is if Sakurai has an itch to add another Zelda character, and sees more potential in Skull Kid than his competition, or if his performance in the ballot was a lot better than expected.

Want: 60% - I'd love to see more Zelda characters, although Skull Kid wouldn't be my first pick.

Nominations: New Story Mode x5
 
Last edited:

chemo

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Mar 20, 2018
Messages
75
Skull Kid

Chance: 15%

My same reasonings as Midna

Want: 55%

Again, I don't really care which Zelda newcomer we get as long as it isn't a clone or Tingle, but bonus points because I like Skull Kid both personality and design wise.

Predictions

Doomguy
Chance: 15%
Want: 50%

Nomination:

Banjo & Kazooie x5
 

BluePikmin11

Akko is my dear daughter!
Joined
Jan 5, 2013
Messages
28,242
Location
https://twitter.com/BluePikmin11R
NNID
blue
Skull Kid is likely one of the top Nintendo candidates voted in the Smash ballot. But much like Midna, I cannot see Skull Kid playable until he becomes a highly marketed Zelda staple that Nintendo wants Sakurai to add in the game. Hyrule Warriors is as far as Skull Kid has went in terms of notable roles, but that game is not a new mainline Zelda title that Skull Kid appeared in. Him being playable ultimately depends on Sakurai and how much he wants to break the rules for ballot candidates like Bayonetta, if he chooses those kinds of candidates for Smash Switch at all. I personally believe that ballot results will be used in Smash Switch mainly as a reference, with Sakurai using the same judgment of deciding newcomers like in Brawl and in Smash 4. Thus, with Skull Kid’s lack of notable roles in Zelda games, I feel Skull Kid will be return as an Assist Trophy for Smash Switch, despite the immense gameplay potential the character would offer.

x5 Tom Nook
 
Last edited:
Top