Rate Their Chances- Smash Ultimate Day 349: First Party characters after the Fighters Pass

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Hmm honestly with all the hype going around and the drought leading up to it I left this direct feeling disappointed.
FE looks good but I was already excited about it so that's not really saying anything and if anything the focus on the school makes me a little nervous that we're getting FE: High School Teacher.
Mostly neutral about most of the games with the new Platinum game taking the prize for the most hype.
Smash news was basically non-existent and considering PP came with 2.0, 3.0 being for Joker and not much else wouldn't really surprise me.
No Pikmin, no Luigi, no Metroid, no F-Zero/Star Fox thing.
Zelda game being a remake was a huge let down, I'm excited to play it and it really looks great but I was so sure the 2019 Zelda game would be something new.

Overall I give it a 5/10, a solid meh.

Nominations: Monster Hunter x10
 

Flyboy

Smash Master
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Dayton, OH
Personally, I was VERY satisfied with the Direct. I got a Joker release window and a tease that proved to me he wasn't just a fever dream. That's all I wanted.

But then they also gave me Super Mario Maker 2, and that alone would have sealed it, but Tetris Battle Royal, a surprise FF9 drop, Hellblade, that absolutely bonkers-looking Astral Chain, Daemon X Machina and Yoshi demos, and a remake of my second-favorite Zelda game of all time? Plus Fire Emblem looking great? Oh yeah, this was awesome.

The 3.0 update has me intrigued and it means we are gonna get big time updates in the future just like 2. Love that.

Satisfaction: 99%

Only knocking off 1% because I really want a darn XCX port but c'mon...Mario Maker 2!!

Nomination: Ryota Hayami x10
 

CaptainAmerica

Smash Champion
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Aug 21, 2014
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Location
New York
Moral of the Story: Expect Nothing, and you won't get disappointed...

I wasn't really expecting much going into this direct. I'm still on the fence about DLC - I want more characters, but I know that my most wanted are pie-in-the-sky so I'll end up disappointed if I don't get them. Beyond Smash though, there are a lot of games I don't play much, so I'm not fussed about what was there.

What I am stoked about: Marvel Ultimate Alliance! Woo! But no release date... But I get to put Tasha on my teams this round, so that's a win. Still hoping that Bucky'll be important enough, but that one's a long shot. But yeah, Cap/Nat/Hulk/Tony is gonna be one of my go to teams. This'll be awesome.

The Smash news is interesting. I'm shocked we still have no Mii costume news...guess they'll come with Joker in April - if I remember correctly, that's when the first set came out with Mewtwo for Sm4sh. But we did get some great news!

The leak was real! HYES!

I guess we'll have to wait for the next direct to get release dates for :ultisabelle::ultpichu::ultsquirtle::ultivysaur::ultpokemontrainer::ultsnake::ultsimon:, but they're confirmed. And Best Buy has :ultyounglink::ultdaisy::ultken: up for preorder already, so my wallet's feeling a bit lighter already.

As someone who doesn't have a PS and doesn't favor JRPGs, I still have 0 clue who Joker is. I guess he looks cool enough, but I'm still waiting to see him in action before I decide to buy (or if I need to be a completionist). Shocked that Erdrick's still in the 'unconfirmed' pile though. Maybe they'll try to make a Japanese-dragon-quester-meets-Western-dragonslayer thing? I can only hope.

But can we talk for a bit about their version numbering? Usually v. 2.0.0 is reserved for huge updates, like "We've added HRC back." I'd have expected massive balancing to be a 1.2.0 or something. Sm4sh didn't make it above a 1.6.0 iirc. So now we're already talking about a Smash 3.0.0? WTF? I guess based on all of that it'll just be adding Joker and fixing balance, but they've even admitted that the balance is really good as is. Hmm.
 

PeridotGX

Smash Champion
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Pros:

Mario Maker 2 looks fantastic! Smash Ultimate has competition for all my attention.
Deltarune on Switch is neat.
Crafted World demo is nice

Cons:

Hardly any Smash News (I'm not saying to rush Joker though)
The LA remake has a weird artstyle.

It was a little underwhelming after the first 2 minutes or so, but the first 2 minutes were amazing. 7/10 direct.

Noms: Maxwell x10
 

Luigifan18

Smash Master
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My favorite part of the Direct was Vergeben getting Gematsu'd.
Oh, and Mario Maker 2.
Smash getting a non-announcement was disappointing, though.
Noms: Square Enix rep x10
I don't think you meant to imply that Vergeben was accurate, then Nintendo changed up the contents of the Direct and Vergeben's source(s) couldn’t realize what had happened and notify Vergeben in time for Vergeben to correct his statements before the Direct (or that Vergeben’s source(s) got canned and blacklisted between providing Vergeben with information and Nintendo changing the Direct (making that information inaccurate)). But that's what you implied.

We have evidence that the Gematsu Leak was an accurate description of a previous phase of the plans for Smash 4, but those plans changed mid-development and the Gematsu leaker’s information wound up being an inaccurate description of the final game. It‘s too early to tell whether or not the same thing has happened to Vergeben, and it's unlikely that we'll ever know for sure. However, it is more likely that Vergeben and/or his source(s) fell for good old-fashioned leakbait.
 
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
6,064
Sorry for being so late with noms, this is literally the earliest I could get them.

(Dante x205)
Maxwell (Scribblenauts) x184
Concept: 100 characters (counting Echo Fighters and Miis/Pokémon Trainer as 3) x180
Concept: World of Light expansion x180
Magikarp x179
Concept: Style Savvy rep x175
Cranky Kong x175
Concept: No fan favorite/highly requested characters x170
Ryota Hayami x170

200 - 151

Monster Hunter x155
Q*Bert x154


150 - 101

(Hat Kid x150)
Sly Cooper x150
Kat & Ana x145
Bonkers (Kirby) x130
Concept: Boss Rush x130
Poochy x125
Tracer x121
Concept: Undertale rep x120
Amy Rose x115
Vaati x115
Brash the Bear x115
Impa x101
Porky Minch x101

100 - 51

Nathan Drake x100
Concept: Microsoft Rep x100
Aloy x100
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x100
Concept: Third-party character from unrepped Company x95
Lora (Xenoblade) x95
Ryu Hayabusa x90
Boss: Kracko x85
Freddi Fish and Luther (Freddi Fish) x80
[Rerate] Erdrick x75
9-Volt x74
Spyro x67
Creeper x67
Yuri Lowell x65
Noctis Lucis Caelum x55


50 - 25

Black Mage (Final Fantasy) x50
Frogger x45
Ninten x45
Papyrus x41
Frisk x40
Concept: Assist Trophy becomes Fighter x30
Jin Kazama x30
Thrall (Warcraft) x25
Cooking Mama x25
[Rerate] 2B x25

Under 25

Boss: Perfect Chaos x20
Kamek x20
Earthworm Jim x20
Gooey (Kirby) x20
Metal Sonic x20
Decidueye x19
Hector (Fire Emblem) x15
Pyra & Mythra (sans Rex) x15
Reporter & Wrestler x15
Tetromino x15
Adeleine (Kirby) x12
Brian (Quest 64) x12
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x10
Concept: Bethesda rep x10
Frog (Chrono Trigger) x10
Amaterasu x10
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x10
Tora and Poppi x10
Concept: Spectator Emotes x10
Concept: Spirits aren’t disconfirmations x10
Saber (Fate) x10
Concept: Fire Emblem Three Houses rep x10
Blacephalon x5
Zhao Yun (Dynasty Warriors) x5
Monokuma x5
Concept: Another joke character x5
Neptune x5
Concept: Crazi Taxi rep x5
Oliver (Ni No Kuni) x5
Concept: Free updates (Splatoon-style) x5
Courier (Fallout) x5
Scorpion x5
Concept: Another literally who Level-5 Character who's popular in Japan, like Achilles or Mark Evans x5
Starman (Pro Wrestling) x5
Black Shadow x5
Marx (Kirby) x5
Malzahar (League of Legends) x5
King Boo x5
Concept: Master Chief Mii Costume x5
Crono x5
Worm (Worms) x5
Kyle Hyde x5
Lizalfos x4
Toon Zelda x3
Eight (Dragon Quest) x3
[Rerate] Slime (Dragon Quest) x3
Boss: Sans x2
Urbosa x1
Stahl x1
[Rerate] Steve? x1

Dante has crossed 200 noms. Style Savvy rep passes No fan favorites and stays at 5th place. Cranky Kong hops past No fan favorites and Ryota Hayami and ties Style Savvy rep, with the other two tied in seventh.

Monster Hunter cuts through the 150 nom mark.

Noctis Lucis Caelum warps past 50 noms.

Jin Kazama leaves the under 25 club.

Fittingly, today’s new concept is Fire Emblem Three Houses rep, with 10 nominations.
 
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Pros:
-Three Houses looks good.
-Mario Maker 2 looks amazing.

Neutral:
-Pokemon Trainer, Squirtle and Ivysaur amiibos look amazing. Neutral because my poor wallet.
-I don't care about Dragon Quest.
-No Wii Fit, F-Zero, Punch Out, Golden Sun, Advanced Wars, Rhythm Heaven or Pikmin (I didn't expect them.)

Cons:
-No Smash Bros news.
-No Animal Crossing, Metroid, Luigi's Mansion, Pokemon, Mario Kart or Persona news.

WHAT? WHY?!
-TETRIS BATTLE ROYALE!?

Nominations
Tracer x1
Decidueye x4
Porky x2
Poochy x 1
Persona Spirits x 2
 
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The FE section didn't last as long as expected so no complaints there but there were a bit to many jrpgs in a row. Lack of Animal Crossing, Luigi's Mansion 3, Pikmin, Metroid and Spyro are a bummer. This year's first half isn't shaping up great.
Interested in Mario Maker 2, Link's Awaking, Boxboy, Marvel, Yoshi, Tetris, Deltarune, the FF games and maybe DQ. Everything else was whatever. 6/10

100 characters x10
 

ryumo the Zekenator

Oh, but he's back He's the man behind the mask..
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Never played one, but it’s a game I’d always heard.

I was actually surprised to hear that the game on the Direct was a Rune Factory, since it looked awful to me (sorry pls don’t kill me).
Its a quick port from a quite early 3DS release, the ones on the Wii certainly look better. It's pretty much a farm sim like Harvest Moon/Story of Seasons (RF is a Harvest Moon spinoff after all) and Stardew Valley with a focus on combat and dungeons. Additionally you get monsters to do your work by taming them instead of getting them at the store like the other two games.
 

Sid-cada

Smash Lord
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Jan 19, 2013
Messages
1,480
Eh... I wasn't expecting much out of this one. A few good surprises, but as someone who doesn't really play RPGs the games felt overly centric them. Mario and Zelda look good, nice to see more Yoshi, but there was nothing that blows me away. Still, it looks like there are still a few more games that I get to enjoy.

I figured that there will be little smash news when it was sandwiched in the middle, though. Guess we will just have to wait even longer...

Nominations

Monster Hunter X10
 

Among Waddle Dees

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Mar 23, 2017
Messages
115
I was actually pretty happy with this Direct. I don't believe anything struck me that powerfully after Mario Maker 2, but I think that's since I've been waiting for a sequel (NOT A PORT) of the original, which has lost most of its community. And making a 3D World skin for the game is a clever way of re-using game content without recycling it (even if 3D World lost the point of its name.) Part of me still wants a Kirby Battle Royale expansion (I guess sequel since the 3DS may be dead) with all the Dream Friends, but I was somewhat relieved not to see Kirby this time, just for the lack of possibly repeating Star Allies' release scramble.

Nominations
Adeleine (Kirby) x10
 
Joined
Jun 21, 2013
Messages
814
Location
New Jersey
Not sure how I feel about Tetris 99, on one hand it's pretty fun and an interesting take on Tetris, on the other the last thing Puyo needs is its one-and-only modern English release being delisted and there's a non-0% chance that it could happen.

Mario Maker 2 looks ****ing awesome, and honestly I didn't really care about Smash's non-news other than Joker's model. I knew I was totally off after Mario Maker 2 showed up.

All in all, it was pretty good, had some interesting reveals. I don't have much to say about it because it didn't have too much that caught my eye.

Sly Cooper x 10.
 
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Well, as far as this Direct goes...
Good things:
*Mario Maker 2 announced
*Ultimate Alliance 3 news
*Final Fantasy VII release date
*Platinum Games' new project
*Simon and Snake amiibos
*Link's Awakening

Cons:
*The f***ing Smash segment. Seriously, Joker will be ready before April ends and there's no trailer to show? Is Nintendo implying that he's being rushed out?
*That Disney game
*No news on MK11

Neutral stuff:
*Deltarune
*Three Houses
*Dragon Quest XI
*All the other stuff

It was overall a 7/10.
What really concerns me is what the hell happened with Vergeben there. Not so much because he's wrong, or as I'd rather say, wrong in his straight words and right were he wasn't (he knew about Mario Maker 2 and the new Zelda, so he definitely had something right) but because he hasn't said anything about this issue, and he's not the guy to run away from issues like this, unlike someone here likes to claim, so I'm overall just wondering what's going on on his behalf.

Nominations: Morrigan x10
 
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What really concerns me is what the hell happened with Vergeben there. Not so much because he's wrong, or as I'd rather say, wrong in his straight words and right were he wasn't (he knew about Mario Maker 2 and the new Zelda, so he definitely had something right) but because he hasn't said anything about this issue, and he's not the guy to run away from issues like this, unlike someone here likes to claim, so I'm overall just wondering what's going on on his behalf.
I'd rather have Vergeben keep his mouth shut for the rest of the fighters pass. The more he gets wrong, the better.
 

NotAPro Bro

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Dec 10, 2018
Messages
264
I'd rather have Vergeben keep his mouth shut for the rest of the fighters pass. The more he gets wrong, the better.
So looking at your signature, you're ok with a tetrominoes but not Minecraft Steve?
















WAIT A MINUTE DO I SEE FREDDI FISH IN YOUR LEAST WANTED!?!?!?!?!? YOU'RE GOING TO DIE MISTER!!!!!
 
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Just because you don't like the idea of Steve, doesn't mean it will be Vergeben's fault if it happens.
So looking at your signature, you're ok with a tetrominoes but not Minecraft Steve?
Steve is nowhere to be found in my least wanted section. The square yellow head in there is actually a Roblox character. He would actually be interesting due to his moveset potential, but I prefer Banjo over him. The reason why I'm tired of Vergeben is because he ruins the fun of speculation by spoiling everything, and it usually boils down to: "These characters are getting in, and you must treat me like gospel.". And when people don't listen to him, he takes to Twitter and starts throwing hissy **** fits. I like surprises, and when Verge leaks a subpar character like Erdrick, speculation just feels really boring knowing that this character is most likely gonna make it. He's been losing credibility as of recent however, which makes speculation more interesting.
 
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CaptainAmerica

Smash Champion
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Steve is nowhere to be found in my least wanted section. The square yellow head in there is actually a Roblox character. He would actually be interesting due to his moveset potential, but I prefer Banjo over him. The reason why I'm tired of Vergeben is because he ruins the fun of speculation by spoiling everything, and it usually boils down to: "These characters are getting in, and you must treat me like gospel.". And when people don't listen to him, he takes to Twitter and starts throwing hissy fits. I like surprises, and when Verge leaks a subpar character like Erdrick, speculation just feels really boring knowing that this character is most likely gonna make it. He's been losing credibility as of recent however, which makes speculation more interesting.
All too true.

I’d like to add it also spoils speculation talk on forums as well. We can’t even speculate our characters (or in some cases, even express that we like one) without a subset of people shooting everything down with the equivalent of “the leaker said so.” After a major leaker drops a name, all discussion about possibility turns into that character only.

I’ve also noticed that characters who get leaked will have massive fanbases spring up. True, some people support in silence since they don’t expect much, but once a name gets leaked the popularity explodes. After all, look at the dates for the OPs of the Katalina ir Erdrick threads - it was after they were initially leaked. I’ve also noticed it does start to get hostile toward people who just don’t know or aren’t enthused by the series/character in question, and comments of “who is this?” or “meh” are treated with the same heavy hand as “this is the stupidest character in the history of ever!!!!”
 

Flyboy

Smash Master
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Messages
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Dayton, OH
Ezio Auditore
Chance:
60%
Crazy, right? Well, here's my thinking: If Spirits deconfirm, Rayman and the Rabbids are out of the picture. To me, those are the "obvious" Ubisoft reps. So what does that leave? Well, why not Assassin's Creed? I truly do believe Ubisoft will be getting a rep in this pack because of how much they've been working with the Big N, and if you want a surprising but still hype third-party, this guy is the one. I really have a good feeling about Ezio, maybe with other assassins as Mii costumes. Plus it fills the requirements of the Fighters Pass as a whole: great music, stage potential, and character potential.

Want: 80%
I don't enjoy Assassin's Creed and I still liked Assassin's Creed 2. Ezio was a blast in Soulcalibur V as well, and he's a super cool character. Out of all the series protagonists, he's the coolest and most popular, and I admit I'm biased towards anything Italian because I used to live there. ;) He's not in my most-wanted, but he's exciting, interesting, fun, and it'd be awesome to get a real assassin character in the game. Sign me up.

Nominations: Style Savvy Rep x5
 

Sari

Smash Champion
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Aug 3, 2014
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New Jersey
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Switch FC
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Ezio

Chance: 15%
Ezio is pretty recognizable in the gaming community and Ubisoft has been friendly with Nintendo in recent years. We even have AC3 on the Wii U and the remaster of it will be coming to the Switch. Not that it changes anything but Sakurai is at least somewhat familiar with the series as he owns AC Syndicate (and I assume some of the other games in the series as well). The main thing holding Ezio back is his competition with fellow Ubisoft character Rayman who is way more popular and requested for Smash. Granted while I'm sort of on the spirits deconfirm train, I feel that exceptions may be made for third party characters who have a lot going for them such as Rayman.

Want: 10%
I'm usually against realistic/gritty third parties unless they have a very deep history with Nintendo, though considering that Ezio is pretty iconic and he has a cool design I could sort of get past his inclusion. Still a somewhat low rating though since I want a ton of other characters over him and I'd much prefer Rayman as a Ubisoft rep.

Professor Hector chance prediction: 0.92% (I mean... at least he isn't a spirit?)

Nominations:
Concept: Fire Emblem Three Houses rep x5 (or whatever the max is for the day)
 
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DaUsername

Smash Journeyman
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Ezio
Chance: 95% There was Assassin's Creed in the last Direct, he's basically confirmed.
Real Chance: 0.01%
AC may be a major franchise, but that doesn't mean it should be in Smash. If any Ubisoft character were to be playable, it would be Rayman, who is not only the most demanded Ubisoft character by a significant margin, but also one of the most wanted characters in general. Ubisoft and Nintendo seem to be aware of this, too, considering the trophies in Smash 4 and the Spirit in this game. If Spirits are truly disconfirmations, then we're probably not getting a Ubisoft character at all. But hey, at least Ubisoft is right there alongside Yacht Club Games and Wayforward in The Exclusive Club of Western Third Parties with Any Sort of Representation in Smash.
Want: 1%
I don't have anything against Assassin's Creed II, I'm just one of the many people who would rather have Rayman. So that automatically lowers his want score. (Even then, his score would be pretty low no matter what.)
Edit: I just realized he'd also prevent the Rabbids from being playable, so I'll give him a point just for that.

Professor Hector prediction: 0.5%
Noms: Square Enix rep x5
 
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ryumo the Zekenator

Oh, but he's back He's the man behind the mask..
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Ezio Auditore da Firenze, protagonist of the Assassin's Creed II Trilogy

Chances: 40~50%
Ubisoft has a quite good relationship with Nintendo (I think the only western company with not so good relationship is EA), and has produced a good amount of projects with Nintendo as of late like Mario + Rabbids and the additional Star Fox content in Starlink. It's a company that is already represented by a few spirits in the game related to Rayman and the Rabbids.

Assassin's Creed is one of the most popular franchises from Ubisoft with pretty much annual releases, and got entries in the DS, Wii U and the Switch. The only issues with it, are two:

1) Up until now Smash is pretty much limited to Japanese IPs, AC would be the among the first that would be Western
2) There may be other franchises from Ubisoft that appeal more to Nintendo and its fanbase like Rayman or the Rabbids

Still I think it got a decent chance.

Want: 50~60%
I only played AC II, its quite an improvement over I considering that it fixes a lot of issues with the game and Ezio is a much likeable protagonist than Altair. Ezio has an arsenal of skills and weapons in AC II, that considering Snake, wouldn't be so out of place in Smash (well maybe except the hidden dagger). He is pretty similar to Link in this regard but with a more Renaissance flair to him. In addition, he possesses a few cool gadgets like the Da Vinci's Flying Machine that he could use as recovery and look pretty appealing. He would be an almost unique addition profession-wise due to the only existing character similar to him is Snake (maybe Sheik but Sheik is more like a bard), who is more focused on being a spy that uses explosives while Ezio is more focused on being an Assassin that uses martial weapons.

Bonus points due to the idea of him interacting with Mario would be quite funny due to his in-game Uncle being based on Mario.

Noms: Erdrick (Rerate) x 5
 

Cabbagehead

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Ezio

Chance: 10%

Ezio is an iconic character (and really, that goes for any hooded figure with knives strapped to their wrists, for us peons who don't know anything about Assassin's Creed), so it's not like Ezio is a "literal who". And as far as the AC series itself goes, Ezio seems to be the most prominent protagonist, so if an Assassin's Creed character happens, it'll definitely be him. Lastly, I understand that logic would dictate that Ubisoft's recent closeness to Nintendo would solidify a place on the roster...but it's hard to agree with that thought when one of Ubisoft's most iconic characters (Rayman) has amounted to an inconsequential cameo twice now. And it's not like Ezio would blend with the rest of the roster any better than Rayman would.

I must confess, that is about all I have on Ezio. There are just some characters that you can feel will never happen, and as of now, Ezio has no reason to be out of that camp. But I'll leave a 10% chance, because it's not like we don't live in a world where Solid Snake, Bayonetta, and Joker ended up happening.

Want: 0%

I don't care about Assassin's Creed, nor am I particularly concerned with it being represented in Smash.
 
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Parcour
Chance: 0.1%
AC may be a succesfull franchise but when it comes to the third-parties sales don't matter that much. Otherwise I have to ask where's our GTA, CoD or Tetris content. I don't see why they would want to put in this generic sneaky dude with blade instead of Rayman or even the Rabbids. Rayman's the fan-favourite and judging by how Pacman has the design the fans prefer this matters more than you may think. Also the Rabbids are kind of the mascot of the company and crossed over with Mario so I'd also call them a better fit. Yeah, both are spirits but I don't care. In fact, I'd say that gives them the better chance, since they are significant enough to be in the game at all.

Want: 0%
Rayman is the only Ubi character I want to see and Ubi franchise I care about the most. Not to say I have no interest in any of Ubisoft's other IPs but Assassin's creed isn't one of them. I should avoid the series from what I've been told by our lord videogamedunkey.

Professor Hector: 0.53%
100 characters x5
 
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
6,064
(Dante x205)
Maxwell (Scribblenauts) x194
Concept: 100 characters (counting Echo Fighters and Miis/Pokémon Trainer as 3) x190
Magikarp x189
Cranky Kong x185
Ryota Hayami x185
Concept: World of Light expansion x180
Concept: Style Savvy rep x175
Concept: No fan favorite/highly requested characters x175
Monster Hunter x175

200 - 151

Sly Cooper x160
(Hat Kid x155)
Q*Bert x154

150 - 101

Kat & Ana x145
Bonkers (Kirby) x130
Concept: Boss Rush x130
Poochy x126
Tracer x122
Concept: Undertale rep x120
Amy Rose x115
Vaati x115
Brash the Bear x115
Porky Minch x103
Impa x101

100 - 51

Nathan Drake x100
Concept: Microsoft Rep x100
Aloy x100
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x100
Concept: Third-party character from unrepped Company x95
Lora (Xenoblade) x95
Ryu Hayabusa x90
Freddi Fish and Luther (Freddi Fish) x90
Boss: Kracko x85
[Rerate] Erdrick x85
Yuri Lowell x75
9-Volt x74
Creeper x72
Spyro x67
Black Mage (Final Fantasy) x60
Noctis Lucis Caelum x55

50 - 25

Ninten x50
Frogger x45
Papyrus x41
Frisk x40
Concept: Assist Trophy becomes Fighter x30
Jin Kazama x30
Thrall (Warcraft) x25
Cooking Mama x25
[Rerate] 2B x25

Under 25

Decidueye x23
Adeleine (Kirby) x22
Boss: Perfect Chaos x20
Kamek x20
Earthworm Jim x20
Gooey (Kirby) x20
Metal Sonic x20
Hector (Fire Emblem) x15
Pyra & Mythra (sans Rex) x15
Reporter & Wrestler x15
Tetromino x15
Brian (Quest 64) x12
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x10
Concept: Bethesda rep x10
Frog (Chrono Trigger) x10
Amaterasu x10
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x10
Tora and Poppi x10
Concept: Spectator Emotes x10
Concept: Spirits aren’t disconfirmations x10
Saber (Fate) x10
Concept: Fire Emblem Three Houses rep x10
Concept: Square Enix rep x10
Morrigan Aensland x10
Blacephalon x5
Zhao Yun (Dynasty Warriors) x5
Monokuma x5
Concept: Another joke character x5
Neptune x5
Concept: Crazi Taxi rep x5
Oliver (Ni No Kuni) x5
Concept: Free updates (Splatoon-style) x5
Courier (Fallout) x5
Scorpion x5
Concept: Another literally who Level-5 Character who's popular in Japan, like Achilles or Mark Evans x5
Starman (Pro Wrestling) x5
Black Shadow x5
Marx (Kirby) x5
Malzahar (League of Legends) x5
King Boo x5
Concept: Master Chief Mii Costume x5
Crono x5
Worm (Worms) x5
Kyle Hyde x5
Lizalfos x4
Toon Zelda x3
Eight (Dragon Quest) x3
[Rerate] Slime (Dragon Quest) x3
Boss: Sans x2
Concept: Persona Spirits x2
Urbosa x1
Stahl x1
[Rerate] Steve? x1

Magikarp flops past World of Light expansion, is now in third place. Cranky Kong hops over Style Savvy rep and World of Light expansion, lands in 4th. Ryota Hayami gets a boost and ties with Cranky. Monster Hunter joins the top 7, tying with Style Savvy rep and No fan favorites for last.

Sly Cooper and Hat Kid cross the 150 nom mark.

Black Mage casts over 50 noms.

Today’s new nominees are Concept: Square Enix rep, Morrigan Aensland (both with 10 noms), and Concept: Persona Spirits (2 noms).
 
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
6,064
EZ

Chance: 15%
Assassin’s Creed has been on Nintendo consoles, but Ezio himself hasn’t, so he’d have to get in with a more extreme version of the Cloud and Joker clause. Still, stranger things have happened. Assassin’s Creed is an iconic series (even if it sucks nowadays), and Ezio is an iconic character. He has the arsenal, without being necessarily bloody, and he has the humor as well. It could work, given how buddy-buddy Nintendo and Ubisoft are acting. He is also not disconfirmed through Spirit.

Want: 65%
Now more than ever has shown me how much of the Smash fandom are purely Nintendo gamers. In another universe, maybe, but in our universe Rayman is nowhere near as iconic as Ezio, the Rayman games are nowhere near as popular as Assassin’s Creed, so all Rayman has going for him is a larger Nintendo presence, popularity, and the backing of Ubisoft (dudes sent a model, that’s desperate). On one hand, those three attributes might someday push Rayman over the edge, but on the other hand Nintendo wants those crazy hype picks, and Smash Ultimate X Assassin’s Creed is one of the top dogs I can imagine.

Personally my preferred Ubisoft pick is the Prince, but between Rayman and Ezio, I’m gonna go for the icon.

Noms: Style Savvy repx5
 
Joined
Jun 21, 2013
Messages
814
Location
New Jersey
I know that one of the games has a character named Mario who says the line of our Mario, but I forget whose uncle he is.

Chance: 55%. As much as Rayman fans would probably not like to admit, he is quite the sleeper pick. While Rayman has pre-representation, Assassin's Creed (which is, last I checked, the much bigger series) does not, and it perfectly fits Reggie's statement. If anybody from Ubisoft is getting in this particular set of characters, I'd guess it'll be Ezio.

Want: 20%. I'll take Rayman competition over Arle competition, but that's all Ezio's got. Assassin's Creed was a series I just never really cared about, and he could be fun in Smash, but I don't care about him whatsoever. I'm also partial to Rayman, but I could accept Ezio getting in over him.

Ryu Hayabusa x 5.
 
D

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Guest
My time to shine.
ASSASINATION SMASHROOM

Ezio is the main character of Assassin’s Creed 2, developed by Ubisoft. As an assassin, his family is killed setting up a revenge quest against the Templar Order. Ezio quickly became a breakout character. Assassin’s Creed 2 was received better than the first, and Ezio would later go onto star in several more games. He is undeniably the series’ most popular character, and the series itself continues to thrive and sell well to this very day. Hell, Assassin’s Creed 2 alone sold over 1.6 million in its very first week, and has sold well over 10 million copies. Ubisoft has famously had a rather strong relationship with Nintendo as of late. Rayman, another of the company’s mascots, was featured as a trophy in Smash 4, one of the only third party trophies without a character in the game. Rayman alongside the Rabbids are featured in Ultimate as spirits, and Rayman legends was pledged to be a Wii U exclusive and wa spublished by Nintendo in Japan. Hell, just look at Mario+Rabbids or Starlink. Nintendo has a tight grip over their IP, so the fact that they trusted Ubisoft with these crossovers, even with their biggest franchise in Mario, just demonstrates their relationship. Needless, to say, negotiations wouldn’t be an issue, and based on datamining it seems Rayman was included as one of the earlier spirits. Ubisoft was one of the first developers to announce a Switch game, alongside Sega(got a new character) and Square(rumoured to get a new character).Now, you may by asking:


Why wouldn’t it be Rayman then?


Here’s the thing, Rayman, while certainly finding success, is just eclipsed by Assassin’s Creed in popularity. Remember, Nintendo is ultimately the one deciding here, and Assassin’s Creed is arguably Ubisoft’s biggest franchise these days. Ezio himself is very iconic, and with the DLC lineup seemingly going for popular third-parties, Ezio fits that lineup quite nicely.
Here’s another thing that’s pretty interesting
https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&t=2045&v=VZ8VyX8-PV8
That’s Xander Mobus saying that alongside Rayman, one of the fake names he got given was Altair, protagonist of the first Assassin’s Creed. This suggests two things. One, NOA at least has Assassin’s Creed on the mind. Two, NOA has other Ubisoft franchises apart from Rayman and the Rabbids on the mind. There’s also the question of Rayman being a trophy for two games in a row now which makes me wonder if the Smash team really thinks he should be added.

But Assassin’s Creed isn’t popular in Japan!

That’s another interesting thing. Surprisngly, even to me, while the series initially seems to have sold poorly over in Japan (Assassin’s Creed 2 sold around 250,000 copes in Japan based on the notoriously innacurate VGChartz), the more recent entries seem to have flipped that around. In this interview http://www.playstationlifestyle.net/2018/09/12/assassins-creed-odyssey-rpg-series-transformation/ Ubisoft Asia general manager Steve Miller says the series has a “core following” in Japan and is one of the most successful Western series over there. That’s a direct statement from a guy who would know about this. These articles http://www.pushsquare.com/news/2018..._assassins_creed_odyssey_starts_strong_on_ps4
http://www.pushsquare.com/news/2017...rts_assassins_creed_origins_climbs_into_top_5 depict the recent entries in the series topping the sales upon their week of release. With this, I think it’s fair to say that the series at least isn’t a flop over there. For comparison, here’s how Rayman sells over in Japan https://nintendoeverything.com/rayman-legends-sells-under-1500-copies-in-its-first-week-in-japan/ https://gonintendo.com/stories/302881-japan-rayman-legends-definitive-edition-first-day-sell-through
This is just another argument for Ezio being chosen over Rayman. Whether it’s the East or the West, Assassin’s Creed frankly eclipses Rayman in popularity.
Here’s another thing, in Soul Calibur 5, the guest character for that game was our main man Ezio himself.

While Soul Calibur has included characters like Geralt who are far more popular in the West than Japan, this just further demonstrates that Ezio has clout. He’s been noticed by Japanese devs. He’s not an unknown. Ultimately no matter which way you slice it, Ezio is gonna be a bigger name than pretty much anybody else from Ubisoft,

The series has no history with Nintendo!

While the series ain’t exactly known for being on Nintendo, it’s made appearances. There have been several Assassin’s Creed games for the Wii U and 3DS. Just two days ago they announced that Assassin’s Creed 3 and Liberation would be remastered for the Switch. Hell, Assassin’s Creed Odyssey has been ported to the Switch too, albeit through a streaming service and exclusively in Japan. Another thing is that while Joker’s press release mentions SMT’s history with Ninty, Persona itself has never been on a Nintendo console, and with NOJ making decisions here I do have to wonder how big a factor history really is. With the rumoured Erdrick and the confirmed Joker, Nintendo seems to be wanting to draw in new audiences to Smash with the DLC. Ezio certainly does that considering he’s coming from a popular series that doesn’t have much overlap with Smash. I will concede though that this is a blow against him.

He’s too violent!

While Ezio is, y’know, an assassin, his actual weapons aren’t really much more violent than Snake choking someone or Joker using his knife. Plus Ike and Samus are mercenaries! They managed to fit him in Soul Calibur, Smash shouldn’t be too much harder. Again though, this is a bit of a point against him.

In conclusion, while Ezio is held back to an extent by his lack of history and violence, if Ubisoft is gonna get a character, I think it’s gonna be him. While Ubisoft couldvery well just not get a character, I think their (to put it bluntly) sucking up to Nintendo in recent years might just net them something in terms of Smash. Ezio is honestly an underrated character right now imo.
Chance: 50%

Want :
Plot-twist, I’m not actually an Assassin’s Creed fan. While I did enjoy 2, I can’t say I’m the biggest fan of the new games and some of the practices the series has taken, and I would actually prefer Rayman. However, Ezio is just a cool character. He’s got a cool design, a fun personality, cool weapons and a fun moveset in Soul Calibur. The potential for a stage and music set is definitely there with the numerous location the series has taken place in. While I’m not a fan, I definitely wouldn’t mind Ezio getting in. Plus, it means we would get a proper assassin in Smash.
60%

Wooh, there we go. Hope I didn’t dissapoint ya. Now my noms feel justified.

Oh, noms: rerate 2B x5.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Joined
Oct 30, 2018
Messages
677
Best AC protag
Chance:50%: Most likely Ubi rep imo. He appeared in Soulcaliber, and is the mascot of Assassin's Creed. Honestly very likely IMO.
Want:90%: While I would prefer the dude from Black Flag, Ezio would be great. I would love to see how assassin's creed would be represented.
Nominations: Black Mage x5
 
Joined
Aug 13, 2018
Messages
570
Ezio

Chance: 50 - I could actually see this. AC is a very popular franchise, Ubisoft has content in the game already, and Ezio fits what Reggie said very well. If there's an Ubisoft rep I think it would be him,

Want: 80 - I haven't played an AC game, but getting a main character from the series would just feel like a really big deal. Characters like him and Joker are the types I'm looking for in my DLC fighters

Noms:
Cranky Kong x5
 
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