Rate Their Chances- Smash Ultimate Day 349: First Party characters after the Fighters Pass

NotAPro Bro

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Chance: 5% We already have a SEGA DLC character, so I don't see it happening. Plus I don't see a Puyo Puyo character mainly because I don't think they would have a good moveset.

Want: 0%, never played a Puyo Puyo Game. So I honestly wouldn't care.




this is it, with the vote they can finally get 50 noms… I'm so happy for this day....
Nominations
Freddi Fish and Luther x5 !! YAY! I knew we could do it buddy, I'm soooo proud of you :,D


maybe one day that attachment will come true (I swear to god I actually did make that in Microsoft Paint)
 

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683
Mis Puyo Puyo
Chance:10%: The only SEGA character could get would be a Sonic rep. and Arle isn't even right after a Sonic rep.
Want:50%: I did like Dr Robotnik's Mean Bean machine. And she could have a cool moveset.
Nominations:
shy guy x5
 
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Arle Nadja:

Chance - 2%

I really don't see this one... We already have a SEGA character for DLC so our chances of getting another are unlikely and with limited slots I think other companies would like some characters. Also I think SEGA would probably have another character before them if you ask me.

Want - 10%

I guess a character which represents puzzle games would be cool but I'd rather have something else. I know nothing about Puyo Puyo but I guess its popular and would make some people happy???

Nominations: Vaati x5
 

Flyboy

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Arle Nadja
Chance:
10%
Puyo Puyo is a series with longevity. It's been going for years, and even though outside of a few big games it's mostly been in Japan (not counting Kirby's Avalanche/Dr. Robotnik's Mean Bean Machine) it's still mega popular. Like, when you think of legendary puzzle games you think Tetris and then you think of Puyo Puyo. It has esports in Japan. It has crossover games and mobile games and Arle herself was way high on every single Japan Smash ballot fanpoll. In fact, I believe she was consistently one of the higher-scoring non-veteran unrepped third party choices. However, while I don't think getting Joker nullifies another Sega rep, I do think it hurts her chances a lot.

Want: 100%
Absolutely. I LOVE Puyo Puyo. Puyo Puyo Tetris is one of my favorite games of all time, period, the best version of both Tetris and Puyo Puyo. While my favorite PP character is Ringo Andou, Arle is the iconic face of the series and I love her just as much, especially with Carbuncle. Also, look, I want Lip as well, but I think it's incredibly shortsighted to compare the two when Puyo Puyo is a longer-tenured series (especially if you count the Madou Monogatari games). Like, you can have both, and you should have both, but Arle is a LOT less obscure than Lip overall.

I hate making it a competition though, since I like both games, I like both characters, and I think boiling it down to a Lip vs. Arle fight does a disservice to them both. Arle is fantastic, Puyo Puyo is fantastic, and I'd love to see an Arle playable character with Tee as an assist trophy to get both Puyo Puyo and Tetris repped.

Nominations: Style Savvy Rep x5
 
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596
Arle Nadja

Chance: 35%
Wow, talk about things looking on the up-and-up for Arle. Nintendo open for negotiating more characters out of Sega? Check. Nintendo and Sakurai picking more Japan-sided franchises? Check and double-check if Dragon Quest shows up. Lip firmly put down as a Mii Costume and spirit? Checkeroni.

Still, as Morgana says, she'll be going up against the best of the best, and Arle isn't really some household name to the rest of the world. Puyo Puyo Tetris has enjoyed the exposure from the Switch eShop long enough, and the franchise doesn't seem to have any plans for itself beyond the occasional anniversary release. Nintendo would have to see a pretty big part of Puyo Puyo's sizable earnings going their way if they invest in it.

Want: 80%
Why do I support Puyo Puyo's inclusion so much when I only discovered it between Smash 4 and Ultimate? I think it'd enjoy the exposure bump, but that's a line of reasoning that I don't like support threads being built around. I see its long history and think that it should be recognized, but it's gotten that far by coasting on its original solid formula, rather than maneuvering its way through modern sensibilities like SMT/Persona did. I think that trying to integrate the craziness of a competitive Puyo game into Smash Bros would be an interesting playstyle to see, and...yeah, actually. That's what I'd like to see.


Predictions:
Rhythm Girl: 1.4%

Nominations:
Hat Kid x5
 
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TCT~Phantom

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TCT~Phantom
For the record I let this day run long since it was our first new community day in a while.

Arle Nadja
15% Chance

To be honest ProfPeanut ProfPeanut summed up most of what I was gonna say. I am not one of the people going all doom and gloom over Joker on her chances. However, I am a tad more pessimistic than they are. I do find the relative lack of Western exposure is a big knock. It is one of the reasons I am still a DQ skeptic of sorts. While Puyo Puyo Tetris being a thing has certainly aided her, I still think that she is not exactly a big name so to speak. However, her fanbase and Sega's relationship w Nintendo are good signs.

100% Want

Love me some Puyo Puyo. Puyo Puyo Tetris is a great game to whip out on the switch for multiplayer shenanigans, up there with Ultimate Chicken Horse and Astro Bears as some of my favorite games to whip out with friends outside of Mario Kart and Smash. Puyo Puyo Fever is amazing, get it for the gamecube it is a gem. Honestly a ton of fun. Also Puyo has some damn fun music and would have an awesome stage.

Nominating Sephiroth x 5

Day over.

Today we have Rhythm Girl from Rhythm Heaven. She is a recurring character of sorts who can work off all the minigames. Tomorrow we have the concept of all our dlc characters being third party. You know what to do.
 
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Rhythym Heaven mark 2.
Chance: 1%: Sorry but no. Karate Joe and Chorus Kids have more potential. Plus they represent the series better IMO.
Want: 50%: Just give me a rhythm heaven char. Chorus Kids would be preferable tho.
Nominations:
Shy Guy x5
 

Sari

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Rhythm Girl

Chance: 10%
I still feel that if we were to get a Rhythm Heaven rep, it would be the Chorus Kids. Rhythm Girl does have one advantage over them in that she is not a spirit but even with that I'm not even sure if we'll be getting a Rhythm Heaven rep at all with the DLC seemingly being mainly third party.

Want: 55%
I think she could represent the Rhythm Heaven series pretty well and the series is long overdue for a playable character. I still think that the Chorus Kids would be better though.

All DLC will be third party chance prediction: 36.97%

Nominations:
Concept: SNK rep x5
 

Cabbagehead

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Rhythm Girl

Chance: 5%
She isn't anywhere to be found in the base game. But, then again, so is a lot of Rhythm Heaven content. It's almost like Rhythm Heaven has joined Wario Land in the category of "franchises that are criminally underrepresented".

And the fact that Joker is our first DLC character doesn't instill any optimism in me for Rhythm Heaven DLC.

Want: 95%
The lovely thing about Rhythm Heaven is that all of its characters are so wacky and emblematic of the franchise that you could pick any single character and they could rep the series well. Rhythm Girl is no exception.

Personally, I have a bias for the Barista, but if we got a Rhythm Heaven character at all, I would be incredibly happy, no matter who they are. But yeah, Barista would get the biggest reaction from me, because it's the specific character I prefer.
 
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I never played Rhythm Heaven so...

Chance: 10%. We might be looking at an all 3rd Party pass, which is no good (for Rhythm Girl). Her only advantage over the other two is that she's not a spirit, but if we get a Wave 2 then things will go up in flames for her. I'm not feeling this one at all.

Want: 20%. If I had to have a rhythm game character, even though he's never been on a Nintendo console before, I'd prefer Parappa since he founded the genre to begin with. I can't say any of the RH characters interest me for any reason besides adding a first party series. They're not Arle competition, so they get the flat 20% I give to that, but besides that... I can't say I'm interested.

Ryu Hayabusa x 5. All 3rd Party pass is looking at a 20.92% chance because of Joker's precedent.
 
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RG

Chance: 5%
Well she’s not a Spirit, but in this case it’s less of a glaring omission and more of a ‘they probably didn’t care’. I don’t expect first parties, but if a Rhythm Heaven character were to happen, I’d expect them to just do Chorus Kids.

Want: 4%
To me RH should be repped by Chorus Kids or Karate Joe. I’d take Reporter and Wrestler as a third pick. Way behind are other characters like Tibby that just feel like G&W-style pull from all the minigames, without a real uniqueness of their own. In last place is Rhythm Girl, who doesn’t even have a fun design. To have her represent RH is just poor representation for such a wacky series, at least to me.

Nominations: Prof HectorX5

Predictions: I’m going all out and say that all third parties will do 100%. Will probably not hit that but I’m still expecting to be the closest.
 
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Rhythm Girl:
Chance: 5%-There's just something about Rhythm Heaven that makes me think they're not gonna happen. I mean, the Chorus Men (or at least someone from the game) were planned for Smash 4, and ended up being scrapped. You'd think with them becoming more popular after the Gematsu leak, there'd be enough demand to guarantee an inclusion in Ultimate, and that's not without mentioning that the series is alive and kicking, but they, nor Karate Joe appeared. Sure, she doesn't have a spirit, but it's not like that's a really big chance booster (I'll expand a bit more on this the next day) when the small amount of RH content in the game is probably a better argument on her favour.
Want: 0%-Not interested in characters from this series. She's even more generic on design than the Chorus Men and Karate Joe, and looks like she came straight from a Lays logo.
Nominations: Dante x5
 
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Grovyle (Pokémon Mystery Dungeon) x272
Concept: Stages outside Fighter Pass x260
Reaper (Overwatch) x256
Concept: Gen 8 Pokemon x251
Concept: More DLC x250
Concept: SNK rep x200
Sephiroth x185

200 - 151

Dark Matter x155

150 - 101

Ravio x150
Professor Hector x147
Ezio Auditore da Firenze x145
Dante x140
Concept: No fan favorite/highly requested characters x135
Kat & Ana x135
Bonkers (Kirby) x130
Andy (Advance Wars) x130
Shy Guy x130
Concept: World of Light expansion x130
Ryota Hayami x120
Arthas Menethil (Warcraft) x120
Concept: 100 characters (counting Echo Fighters and Miis/Pokémon Trainer as 3) x120
Amy Rose x115
Concept: Boss Rush x115
Sly Cooper x115
Maxwell (Scribblenauts) x112
Q*Bert x112
Brash the Bear x110
Poochy x110
Vaati x110
Concept: Style Savvy rep x110
Magikarp x109
Impa x101
Porky Minch x101

100 - 51

Tracer x100
Monster Hunter x100
Cranky Kong x100
Nathan Drake x100
Concept: Microsoft Rep x100
Aloy x100
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x100
Concept: Undertale rep x100
Concept: Third-party character from unrepped Company x95
Hat Kid x95
Lora (Xenoblade) x90
Boss: Kracko x85
9-Volt x69
Spyro x57


50 - 25

Freddi Fish and Luther (Freddi Fish) x50
Creeper x47
Papyrus x41
Frisk x40
Concept: Assist Trophy becomes Fighter x30
Ninten x30
Thrall (Warcraft) x25
Cooking Mama x25

Under 25


Boss: Perfect Chaos x20
Kamek x20
Earthworm Jim x20
Hector (Fire Emblem) x15
Pyra & Mythra (sans Rex) x15
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x10
Decidueye x10
Concept: Bethesda rep x10
Frog (Chrono Trigger) x10
Amaterasu x10
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x10
Tora and Poppi x10
Concept: Spectator Emotes x10
Concept: Spirits aren’t disconfirmations x10
Brian (Quest 64) x10
Ryu Hayabusa x10
Blacephalon x5
Zhao Yun (Dynasty Warriors) x5
Monokuma x5
Concept: Another joke character x5
Neptune x5
Concept: Crazi Taxi rep x5
Oliver (Ni No Kuni) x5
Concept: Free updates (Splatoon-style) x5
Courier (Fallout) x5
Scorpion x5
Concept: Another literally who Level-5 Character who's popular in Japan, like Achilles or Mark Evans x5
Starman (Pro Wrestling) x5
Black Shadow x5
Marx (Kirby) x5
Saber (Fate) x5
Tetromino x5
Lizalfos x4
Toon Zelda x3
Eight (Dragon Quest) x3
Boss: Sans x2
Adeleine (Kirby) x2
Urbosa x1
Stahl x1
[Rerate] Steve? x1

Concept: SNK Rep reaches 200 noms.

Dark Matter warps past 150 noms.

And today’s new nominee is Tetromino, with five noms. Yep.

Oh yeah, a scheduled reminder to FancySmash FancySmash and Ze Diglett Ze Diglett that they have extra noms.
 
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Tap Tap Tap
Chance: 1%
While I do think a Rhythm Heaven rep can still be a possibility I don't see why they would go for the lady from that one tap dancing rhythm game. That seems like a pretty random inclusion doesn't it? Especially when Chorus kids and Karate Joe are much more popular and iconic to the series. She lacks a spirit? Okay, but so do alot of RH characters to my knowledge, notably Tibby, the mascot of the latest RH game. That might help out him more than her. Not that I still think spirits deconfirm at all.


Want: 50%
I'll appreciate any RH character for the sake of repping that series. Still, I can't help but feel Chorus Kids and Karate Joe would do the franchise a bit more justice, making them the more appealing choices for me.


All third-party: 53.89%
100 characters x5
 
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Artix

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Rhythm Girl

Chance: 1%
I'm not even sure if we're getting a Rhythm Heaven rep as DLC this time around, especially since I think the DLC will mostly be third-parties. When it comes to a Rhythm Heaven rep, Chrous Kids and Karate Joe always came to my mind, not Rhythm Girl, so I don't think Nintendo will choose her over those two. Besides, there are other Nintendo characters that might have a higher priority than the Rhythm Heaven characters.

Want: 0%
I would rather have either the Chrous Kids or Karate Joe to represent the Rhythm Heaven series than Rhythm Girl, since those two are the most iconic characters of the series. But even then, I'd still put them in a lower priority as there are other characters I want in first before them.

All 3rd-Party DLC Prediction: 32.41%

Nominations:
Arthas Menethil (Warcraft) x5
 
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Rhythm Girl

Chance: 1%
Rhythm Girl is one of the few notable Rhythm Heaven characters to lack a Spirit in Smash Ultimate... While this could mean that she's possible as DLC, I kinda doubt it... From the looks of it, it seems that Nintendo plans to have mostly 3rd party characters as DLC... the lack of a Spirit could very well be just because she wasn't a big enough character... If we were to get a Rhythm Heaven character, she probably wouldn't be the first choice... Characters like Karate Joe, the Chorus Kids, and the Wrestler and Reporter seem like more likely options when it comes to Rhythm Heaven characters...

Want: 100%
Hands down, my most wanted character. Rhythm Heaven is one of my all time favorite Nintendo series, and if I had to choose a rep, it would be Rhythm Girl. She's a blank slate, so she could easily use items and characters from throughout the series in her moveset without feeling out of character. If she got in, I would be more than excited...

All 3rd Party Predictions: 55.53%

Nominations: Reporter & Wrestler x5
 

Ornl

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The new average prevision for Arle Nadja is now 10% The old was 8%.

Rhythm Girl
- She isn't the mascot of Rhythym Heaven.
- She is a dynamic woman with white skin. Like Wii Fit Trainer.
- There is no reason (promotion, hype, tribute...) for she to be in DLC instead of appearing in the basic roster. The concept of Rhythym Heaven game isn't new, unique, original, different... and even in Japan, the series is not preferred : http://www.gamekyo.com/blog_article388678.html
Chance : 0%. Want : 0%
 
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The new average prevision for Arle Nadja is now 10% The old was 8%.

Rhythm Girl
- She isn't the mascot of Rhythym Heaven.
- She is a dynamic woman with white skin. Like Wii Fit Trainer.
- There is no reason (promotion, hype, tribute...) for she to be in DLC instead of appearing in the basic roster. The concept of Rhythym Heaven game isn't new, unique, original, different... and even in Japan, the series is not preferred : http://www.gamekyo.com/blog_article388678.html
Chance : 0%. Want : 0%
Lol "dynamic woman with white skin = disconfirmed" apparently. Does this mean that every white girl that has a chance (say, Tracer) is disconfirmed?

Thanks for making me laugh yet again, because you're even dumber than Electrichu300. Appreciate it. Rating coming soon.
 
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CureParfait

Smash Apprentice
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Dec 26, 2018
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Rhythm Girl

Chance- 5%
Although I do think she have a chance,but if Rhythm Heaven gets a rep it is most likely going to be Karate Joe or Chorus Kids.

Want- 75%
Since the Rhythm Heaven series looks really interesting, I would love to see a Rhythm Heaven rep. Also Rhythm Girl might bring in some very unique movesets.
 

PapillonXtreme

Smash Apprentice
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Jul 11, 2018
Messages
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Rhythm Girl

Chance: 5%
Rhythm Heaven is something that I personally don't believe they're getting a playable character. Even if they did, Rhythm Girl would not be the first choice for the series, it has to be either Karate Joe or the Chorus Kids. Besides, I don't think a Rhythm Heaven character is likely as DLC since I believe they're going to be third-party characters.

Want: 0%
I'm still skeptical about Rhythm Heaven getting a rep in Smash. Even if they somehow include a Rhythm Heaven character, I pretty much would rather it to be Karate Joe or the Chorus Kids, since they're the most iconic character of the series.

Nominations:
Noctis Lucis Caelum x5
 

CaptainAmerica

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Rhythm Waifu

Look, the big names in the RH series are the Chorus Kids (because Gematsu) and Karate Joe (since he's a fighter and has been in most games). The girl is...honestly as important as anyone else in the series, i.e. not, and doesn't have the bandwagoned fanbases of the two above. But I'm only speaking from the one RH game I've played...which didn't have her in it.

Still, the reasoning for the other RH characters is mostly the same, so copied for your convenience.
Chance: 5%
Want: 0%

I'll rate both of these together, since the whole "Rhythm Heaven" series could have any one of a number of interchangeable characters.

Each character in RH is just another excuse for a minigame to happen, very much like the Warioware crowd. Still, it is a huge series, so it does seem horrifically underrepresented with only three songs and a handful of Spirits. The only issue is how that representation is best gotten.

Any character would have to end up pulling a Game and Watch in the first place - no one RH character has enough for a full moveset without reaching into the other games to get some specials. GnW is also taking the 2D-character-without-smooth-motion slot, so there would be a loss of uniqueness there. Also, there are very few minigames consistent across the series, and therefore there are few consistent characters. I've only played the Wii version, and the Chorus Kids weren't in that.

Not to mention that both of these options are spirits in the first place, and it's looking more and more like Spirits are a no go for promotions.

Yes, they're on everyone's mind for the past few years because of Gematsu, and that did have some truth. But the CKs were probably scrapped very early in development since Sakurai couldn't figure out how to get them to dance in his head, and he never considered them high enough priority to revisit either.

Now if I were to be the director of the game, I'd have ensured that RH got some representation...as a stage. There are a lot of catchy tunes, and a rhythm-based minigame stage like WarioWare could be a lot of fun. But a character? What could the gimmick be, push a button in a certain rhythm to power up attacks? Gee, and you thought that Falcon Punch was predictable and competitively useless since it's too easily telegraphed. Take that away, and all you've got an a bunch of random minigame items being spontaneously generated.
Nom: More DLC x5
 

Good Guy Giygas

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Rhythm Grill

Chance: 5% - I feel like there's gotta be a pretty good reason we haven't seen a fighter from Rhythm Heaven yet. Chorus Kids were rumored to be in Smash 4 but never made it and they weren't added in Ultimate either. This leads me to believe that the idea of a Rhythm Heaven character was just abandoned completely, meaning either they couldn't create a proper moveset or felt their focus could be better prioritized elsewhere. So I wouldn't expect to see a RH character any time soon.

Want: 10% - I wouldn't really mind a RH rep, and I guess Rhythm Girl would be an okay character to represent the series. I just don't really have much an attachment to the games having never played them. I'd be curious to see what kind of moveset she'd have, especially if it was indeed rhythm-based. So far that concept hasn't been implemented very well in Smash though (see Donkey Kong's old Final Smash... This is also why I suspect a RH wouldn't really work). I'd be interested just to see if they could indeed pull it off.

Nominations:
Andy x5
 
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Melody Lady

Chance: 5%
Slightly better for not having a spirit, but she's not as big a name in the Rhythm Heaven series as Karate Joe or Chorus Kids. As it stands, DLC appears to have a 3rd Party approach, and Rhythm Heaven as a series seems to be in the Dixie Kong treatment territory, where once it was skipped over, they don't plan on returning to it.

Want: 0%
Not really a fan of rhythm games myself, though I have played some Dedede Drum Dash. That said, I recognize that the series deserves some form of playable representation, but I don't think Rhythm Girl is the right Rhythm Heaven character for the job.

Predictions: Concept All Third-Party
Hoo, oh boy. I can honestly speak for myself and say that I expect this, but everyone else? Majority seems to say yes... so... 57%

Noms:
Professor Hector x3
Q*Bert x2
 

NotAPro Bro

Smash Journeyman
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Rhythm Grill
Chance: 1%, Chorus Kids would be better. So would Karate Joe. Still could be intresting but I still gave those two 1% (I think) so I'm giving her the same rating.
Want: 5%, Stilll never played one of the games, so I still don't want her. But I think having someone like her would be great in this game.



Nominations:
Freddi Fish and Luther x5
 

TCT~Phantom

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TCT~Phantom
The new average prevision for Arle Nadja is now 10% The old was 8%.

Rhythm Girl
- She isn't the mascot of Rhythym Heaven.
- She is a dynamic woman with white skin. Like Wii Fit Trainer.
- There is no reason (promotion, hype, tribute...) for she to be in DLC instead of appearing in the basic roster. The concept of Rhythym Heaven game isn't new, unique, original, different... and even in Japan, the series is not preferred : http://www.gamekyo.com/blog_article388678.html
Chance : 0%. Want : 0%
That average seems very off. I can only recall one or two times we get whole numbers from an average. Rounding in scenarios like that is something that we avoid I. This thread. I round to two decimal points to better reflect the average. A 59.62 is significantly different from a 60 for instance.

Furthermore, some of this logic seems flawed. While I appreciate the use of a poll of some sort, it lacks much statistical power. Just using a poll without explaining the reason why it is significant is important. Furthermore the sample size is relatively small. I don’t buy too much into polls unless they have a representative sample. It can be very easy to torture data to get results you want as evidence.

Also not gonna comment on the WFt parallel in depth. Look at Fire Emblen or swordsmen in general and tell me they do not overlap in design more than WFt and Rhythm Girl would.

Slap Slap Slap! Clap Clap Clap!

Chance: 0%
Want: 0%

Noms: Magician (House of the Dead) as a boss x5
Roxas as a Sora Echo x5
1. While I appreciate the Bolbi reference, you need to actually discuss the character in question for your scores and noms to count.

2. Today is only 5x noms. I would also suggest just doing something like Roxas x 5 instead to be broader.

Now onto housekeeping stuff. Something more of a plan going forward than anything concrete.

Scores will be out before Valentine’s Day for the game being completely up to date. Expect the front page to be up to date as well.

Onto abstaining and discussion stuff. Abstaining by demand would be focused on chance abstain. Want abstains would be allowed still provided Chance explanations are good. Furthermore, some people brought up changing the two sentences rule. This was put in place mainly because I wanted to avoid making it too much about semantics for length. Revisions to show effort while still keeping the bar of entry low are open to discussion.

When we get gameplay of joker we will do satisfaction on him. This is like what we did w inklings beforehand.

I was thinking of looking for someone to do a designated music dump each day for a character. Anyone interested pm me.

I was also thinking of maybe doing a banner for the thread going forward, but I ain’t no artist. If interested pm me.

Finally I want to get more exposure for this game going forward. I have tried posting in socials in the past and bumping support threads, but only the latter really works. Ideas to boost participation are welcome. I know CaptainAmerica CaptainAmerica has some good ideas. Keep in mind score updates will be regular starting mid February.
 

Ornl

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Also not gonna comment on the WFt parallel in depth. Look at Fire Emblen or swordsmen in general and tell me they do not overlap in design more than WFt and Rhythm Girl would.
So much the better that you do not mention it, then.
This will prevent we to (re)discourage more unusual observations on this thread, and to debate around your fallacious answer that uses "appeal to tradition" sophism.
 

TCT~Phantom

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So much the better that you do not mention it, then.
This will prevent we to (re)discourage more unusual observations on this thread, and to debate around your fallacious answer that uses "appeal to tradition" sophism.
There’s a difference to appealing to tradition and using evidence to poke holes into a nonsense arguement. Very convinient if you to only acknowledge the smallest point of my critique, rather than the far more substantial critiques. Furthermore, your arguement is that two characters share a basic visual similarity and therefore they can’t get in, despite very clear differences in movesets. I feel I shouldn’t need to explain this further, but several smash characters already share latent similarities to each other. See the Links or the Fire Emblem cast. I have provided evidence to support my claim, yet you are going off of a hypothetical.

Furthermore, if we are going by logical fallacies, you are clearly in line with the fallacy fallacy. If I committed the logical fallacy that you accuse me of (which I did not), then you are attempting to use that logical fallacy to discredit my entire arguement, despite my position still holding value.
 
D

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Y’know, I was originally going to right this post while rhyming, but I typed one word and realised my skills would just be criming. You’ve been spared expense of seeing my awful flow in word action, but enough with that, I think we should just get onto this reaction.
TAP THE BUY BUTTON FOR 5.99

Chance:
Rhythm Girl is a character from the Rhythm Heaven series, having appeared in the very first game and making many appearances since, being one of the series’ mascot. She’s notable for being one of the only important Rhythm Heaven characters to not be a spirit. Rhythm Heaven itself is arguably the most major first-party series not yet featured with a character in Smash, having had many successful entries since debuting in 2003, and with there even being evidence to suggest the Chorus Kids were planned to be in Smash 4 but were cut for unknown reasons. If they are to represent a new first-party series in Smash, Rhythm Heaven is a top contender, with it’s last game only being released about two years ago. A new Rhythm Heaven game on the Switch is certainly a possibility, and Nintendo might want to promote it by adding in Tap Trial Girl to represent the series. Rhythm Heaven in Smash is only represented by some spirits and a few songs, so the potential for a dlc pack is there and the series does appear to be on Sakurai’s radar. However, the DLC pass based on what we know seems to have a greater emphasis on third-parties who really make headlines, and Rhythm Girl herself isn’t a super well-known or important character, as Rhythm Heaven is a collection of mini games not focused on characters in the first-place. You could argue it would best be represented by a stage. One must also question why a Rhythm Heaven wasn’t added this game if they were seemingly cut last game and a new Rhythm Hevaen came out only a month before the project plan was made. Perhaps Sakurai just doesn’t think the series is important enough to get a character. Another thing is that Rhythm Heaven works very closely with a Japanese singer called Tsunku who has been involved in every game in the series, but unfortunately Tsunku has recently suffered from throat cancer and has had to get his vocal records removed since 2015. This makes the chances of a new Rhythm Heaven game seem less likely.
15%
She seems more likely for a hypothetical 2nd DLC pass focused on first-party characters.

Want:
Rhythm Girl’s pros are
Evident and compelling
Karate’s better
50%
Noms: Ezio x5
 
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Well it is time....

u go gurl.png


Ok, so first let's look at her character:

So Rhythm Girl (or Tap Trial Girl) is one of the most reccuring characters in the Rhythm Heaven franchise, she was even the most major part of the boxart for Rhythm Heaven Fever. She is part of the mingame Tap Trial which has appeared numerous times in the series which involves tap dancing to a certain rhythm. Now to me already this sounds like good moveset potential, timing dance moves that could double up as attacks for more power would be extremely unique. She also has the benefit of being the character making appaearances elsewhere in the series in other minigames meaning she could take moves from them as well, her proportions could really benefit her in that situation. Overall, she is a pretty signifact character in the series as she has appeared across many different areas of the series even soundtrack covers and arcade cabinets! Oh, and she is also considered to be the mascot of the original Rhythm Heaven for the GBA. So yea, none of the minigame characters are really that stand out but she has been the most advertised of them all.

If you ask me she is a better choice than Chorus Kids and Karate Joe since Chorus Kids would have more trouble representing the series as a whole and 3 characters on the screen at once would be very messy if you ask me (not saying it is impossible). As for Karate Joe, he is a rhythm-based fighter but Rhythm Girl is a rhythm-based dancer which is much more unique. Also across the minigames and other aspects she has appeared more often. Overall she would be extremely unique with an interesting gimmick. Also she has PERFECT alts from her numerous outfits.

So she has a lot of potential and probably the best representive for Rhythm Heaven overall.... but is she likely for DLC?

Unfortunatley, it has been a while since we have gotten a new Rhythm Heaven game and having a character from it as DLC isn't looking likely (unless promotion for a new RH which is super unlikely) and even if we get a Nintendo character I doubt she is the first choice. Second wave maybe, but even then she seems more like a character that would be in the base game.

Oh yeah, and she isn't a spirit which is odd considering I would expect her to be an Ace. I don't think this means much for DLC but it is very strange if you ask me... It probably means she was just forgotten, too many RH spirits or we are getting a RH event later down the line. But hey, RH has stage and music potential so who knows?

With all that together, I'll put her chances at 7.5%...

It isn't looking likely but it certainly isn't impossible and like I said I would expect her more in a potential second wave.

And yea I'll give her 100% want, I love Rhythm Heaven and I wholeheatedly think she is the best representation for the series in Smash and I will continue to hope she makes it in eventually.

Nominations: Vaati x5
 
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Rhythm Girl:

Chance: 0 - I really don't think her chance was ever high than 0 at any point in the speculation. Chorus Kids were the ones cut from the game in 4, and Karate Joe and a bit of fan support IIRC. Chorus Girl had neither of those going in her favor. I don't know if she has a spirit so i can't comment on that, but I don't think we're getting a RH rep if the obvious top 2 only got spirits themselves

Want: 20 - An RH rep would be cool I guess. Dont have a particular choice between the 3 potential reps personally.

Noms
Gen 8 Pokemon x 5
 

PeridotGX

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Rythym Girl

Chance: 2%. If we were to get a RH character, it would likely be chorus kids (due to their popularity). I think RG's lack of a spirit is more forgetfullness than a hint.

Want: abstain. I've never played RH

Noms: Maxwell x5
 
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"Dynamic woman with white skin" -Ornl
Chance: 5%
Want: Abstain

Gonna be short, Rhythm Girl is one of the most well known characters in the Rhythm Heaven franchise, and one of the few without a spirit. This is the same case as Sylux, Adeleine, and Porky, which is somewhat suspicious and increases the chances of all of them. She isn't the mascot of the series, but she is very popular and has a following. I'm abstaining for want because I have no connection to the character, and I've never played an RH game.

All DLC is Third Party: 63.92%

Reaper x5
 

Sid-cada

Smash Lord
Joined
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Messages
1,480
Rhythm Girl

Chance - 2.5% - She earns some recognition for being on the title screen for most of the Rhythm Heaven Games. That said, she's no where near as iconic as some of the other Rhythm Heaven characters like the Monkeys or Karate Joe, and the fact that she technically doesn't have a name or a consistent deign doesn't help her out. While the fact that she is not a spirit raises some eyebrows, I don't think she was as notable as some people might think. Still, she got in over some major mascots, so that has to be worth something.

Want - 60% - I do want a Rhythm Heaven Character, but my choice would be Karate Joe. I can take her, I guess, because the main things I want from a Rhythm Heaven Representative, imitating the motions rather than using a bunch of props from the games, can also be done by her.


Prediction

Full 3rd Party DLC - 46.24% - Looks more likely, by the day...


Nominations

Dark Matter X5
 

DaUsername

Smash Journeyman
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Rhythm Waifu
Chance: 3.5%
She's somewhat well-known, but nowhere near the level of Chorus Kids or Karate Joe. (At least among the Smash fanbase.) And at this point, we're probably not gonna get an RH character at all.
Want: 35%
Any RH character gets an automatic 35 because the series needs more music. But I don't know what to think about the character herself. I'm not really sure what she would bring to the table.

Spirits will never be playable prediction: 50%
Noms: Poochy x5
 
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