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Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

WaddleMatt

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Geno:

Chance - 5%

I really really doubt he is happening, especially with Nintendo picking the roster. If they are going to choose a SE rep it will be something that SE might actually care about like Dragon Quest or heck maybe even Kingdom Hearts. All he has is the fan demand and that Sakurai likes him but that most likely will mean very litle this time.

Want - 5%

I mean, he could have a cool moveset but I would much rather have other Mario characters. Give us Toad or Paper Mario first, even Waluigi.

Nominations: Rhythm Girl x10
 
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RileyXY1

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Geno

Chance: 5%
He's not relevant. He has no upcoming titles and the only people who want him in are hardcore Smash fans. Choosing someone else is better for SE and Sakurai's financial interests.

Want: 0%
I was never really interested in Geno and I couldn't understand why he's so popular.

Nominate: Kat & Ana x5
 

Cosmic77

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Funny. Just a couple months ago, saying Geno was basically confirmed for Ultimate was like saying the sky is blue.


Geno

Chance: 10%
Base game is dunzo, meaning that all we have left are DLC characters hand-picked by Nintendo. Do I think Geno would be one of those characters? Seeing how Nintendo themselves can't even be bothered to implement Geno in any of their games, I'd chalk that up as a hard "No."

Take it from a Ridley supporter. If things look grim for your character, chances are they'll stay that way or get even worse. Don't set yourself up for disappointment you could've easily avoided.

Want: 10%
The only reason I would've wanted him before is because the fans would finally get their character, but now that the base roster is finished and we only have five character spots left, I'm limiting myself to supporting the characters who I'd genuinely like to get in Smash. Unfortunately, Geno isn't one of them.
 

Geno Boost

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Geno

chance 85%
he is probably the most requested character right now he is in the same level as :ultkrool::ultridley: in terms of request also he is the only mii costume that got splash screen i expected him to be in the base roster because of :ultkrool::ultchrom::ultisabelle::ultdaisy::ultinkling: getting confirmed and they had a mii costume but thinking about it again i think he might better become DLC if his mii costume is the most sold one since this would print money for both square-enix and nintendo and also sakurai wants him in this game i dont see him being left out this time also lets not forget that most picks this time around were fan service
the only thing that would hurt Geno's chances alot if the 2nd square-rep isnt Geno because that might mean that square-enix did give a big no to sakurai

want 100%
why? i explained it million times in the past :bluejump:

nominate: Alex kidd x5
 
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waddledeeonredyoshi

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Geno

chance 85%
he is probably the most requested character right now he is in the same level as :ultkrool::ultridley: in terms of request also he is the only mii costume that got splash screen i expected him to be in the base roster because of :ultkrool::ultchrom::ultisabelle::ultdaisy::ultinkling: getting confirmed and they had a mii costume but thinking about it again i think he might better become DLC if his mii costume is the most sold one since this would print money for both square-enix and nintendo and also sakurai wants him in this game i dont see him being left out this time also lets not forget that most picks this time around were fan service
the only thing that would hurt Geno's chances alot if the 2nd square-rep isnt Geno because that might mean that square-enix did give a big no to sakurai
>He is probably the most requested character right now

According to what exactly? If you're going by those fan made Reddit polls where he tends to rank the highest, he still gets beaten by Banjo. Also him being popular right now doesn't really matter with the DLC likely having been set in stone for months.

>He's one the same as :ultkrool:and:ultridley:when it comes to request

"X got in and Y is about as popular so Y must get in too" Sorry but that's not how things work. Getting into Smash takes more than just popularity. The reptiles had more things going for them besides just that.

>Mii costume splash screen
Why exactly does this mean much of anything?

>Best selling costume so he would sell hotcakes as a fighter

Gonna need some source on that. Also I think those sales would likely come mostly from Geno fans within the Smash community since I don't think the general consumer would want to spend money on a costume of a character they haven't heard of. Mii costume sales =/= Fighter sales. Costumes are for the hardcore fans. A fighter appeals to hardcore fans as well as well as the casuals. Geno would still likely appeal mostly to the former group who's relatively small compared to the amount of people they would want to sell the fighters to.

Wanting Geno is fine but I wouldn't advise giving him, or any third-party for that matter, a 85%. You're just setting yourself up for disappointment with that.
 

AirMac1

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462
Geno
Chance:85%-I would of rated him even higher if Nintendo wasn’t choosing the DLC. But think about it, Nintendo’s a big corporation, so they want money, and the more characters the fans want, the more money the DLC pass gives them.

Want:100%-I’m on the hype train for the DLC pass, and hype=Geno. So please Nintendo, please give us Geno.

Prediction:Banjo and Kazooie Chance:70%

Noms:9-volt x10
 

PapillonXtreme

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Geno

Chance: 5%
Geno literally has no chance of making it in Smash through DLC since he has so many hurdles to face. First off, Nintendo themselves planned the DLC, so it's highly unlikely they would pick him over someone who would appeal more to the fans. Second, even in his own company, Square, he still has stiff competition with Sora or a Dragon Quest character for the spot. And finally, he literally has nothing to promote since he hasn't appeared ever since Super Mario RPG and DLC is mostly for promotional characters.

Want: 5%
I just don't understand why many people want him in Smash. It's not like I hate the character or anything, I just don't see the appeal behind Geno at all. Besides, there are other characters that are most likely to get in as DLC that I want more than Geno does.

Nominations:
3rd Party Character from an unrepped company x10
 

Calamitas

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Geno

Chance: 10%
Nintendo picking the DLC hurts his chances. Him getting used for anything outside of Smash again is incredibly unlikely, so he's not really going to make much of an impact to people in general.

Want: 0%
Never played Super Mario RPG, only ever watched a (Chuggaaconroy's) Let's Play of it years ago, and he left pretty much no impact on me at all. I simply don't see the appeal of him. As for as representatives of Mario RPGs go, I'd much rather have Paper Mario or Fawful. The latter in particular would also help adding more villains to the roster.
 
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RealPokeFan11

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GENOT GONNA HAPPEN (sadly)
Chance: 3%
Want: 60%

His chances seemed very high before the recent direct, and lowered slightly for DLC considering Vergayben opening his trap about a different Square Enix character. However, Sakurai took to Twitter and said that Nintendo chose all of the DLC characters this time. Nintendo probably doesn't give a flying crap about Geno, and his chances went from 90% to about 75%, then CRASHED ALL THE WAY DOWN TO 3%. He did make it into the game, but as a player icon for the online waiting room. He isn't deconfirmed yet, but his chances took a major crash after Sakurai talked about Nintendo picking the DLC. I have recently started supporting Geno a litttle bit, considering his fans have been trying very hard since Melee, and he would have an interesting moveset. Sadly though, I'm losing a lot of hope for this character, and there's a chance I might jump off the Geno hype train pretty soon, and remove him from my wanted section.

Predictions: Banjo-Kazooie: 50%

Nominations: Reaper x10
 
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Sid-cada

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Geno

Chance - 2.5% - While we know that Sakurai had an affection twords him. Sadly, we now know that Nintendo seemingly has more sway over the roster at this point. Combined with negotiations with Square and such, I'm not certain he is as strong a chance as others. Someone like Slime would be more profitable, I think.

Want - 30% - Not really interested in him. He doesn't seem that cool moveset-wise, and there are many characters I would prefer more.

Prediction

Banjo - 13.24% - Who knows?

Nominations

Arle Nadja X10
 

Sigran101

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Geno

Now, as incredibly popular characters go, he’s probably got the best shot, given he’s appeared in basically zero capacity. Although, I am expecting there to be a Spirit for him (that icon would be bizarre if it were only that), and if his Mii Costume comes back things might get wonky.

The reason I think he has the best shot is because he’s third-party, and I’m expecting all third-parties. However, he also has the most competition, including the increasingly popular and very good promotional pick Sora, the hugely successful and popular (in Japan) Dragon Quest series (and Slime is definitely in the running if ****ing Piranha Plant was), the dark horse picks Neku (who works as advertising for a recent port and a sequel has been hinted at) and Crono (for that hardcore gamer cred, and maybe a sequel please?), and the low but non-zero possibility of a second FF rep (Terra, Cecil, Noctis, Chocobo, Sephiroth, Tifa, Zack, or my boy Zidane, most of whom work for the upcoming ports and are videogame legends in their own right).

Damn, that’s a competitive category.

Want: 100%
Jesus, there are so many huge fandom picks unfulfilled. Why the **** did they even hold a ballot? They should have just given Ultimate one or two more years of development and included all the characters and modes it feels like it’s missing.

Nominations: Mach Rider x10


You don’t need to clarify, I know there’s only one real Joker.
I figured people would know who I meant, but given the characters some people want, it honestly wouldn't surprise me if someone voted for the joker from Batman. Just wanted to make sure.
 

11th

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Oh boy.


Geno
Chance: 0.5% (1/200) -
... yeah, not looking good. It seems very likely that we'll be getting a character from Square Enix for DLC, but I can't see them handing him over when they would have even more to gain from a character from a recurring property, such as Final Fantasy, Kingdom Hearts, Dragon Quest... the list goes on. Add to that the fact that Nintendo made the picks this time. Even if he did do okay on the official ballot (which we can't confirm because the results were never released), he wouldn't help promote anything for either company because he's a one-off from a 22-year-old game. Short of Nintendo managing to buy him back with the intent to use him outside of Smash, I don't think he'll ever make it. All of this isn't even mentioning the possibility of him being a Spirit, which seems likely given that the lobby icon images are probably shared with the Spirits images. (It would be silly to use it for one and not the other.)
Want: 5% - Not against, not really for. He'd be a pure fan pick, which I guess could be interesting, but that's about all he would do for me.


Skipping noms/predictions, as usual.
 

SwitchButton

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Geno:
Chance: 0%

Nostalgia can only carry a character so far. He could have all the fan demand in the world but the fact is that Geno as a character is simply not even slightly important or significant enough for Nintendo to consider a priority. He was a sidekick in a single spinoff game, and if Nintendo decided to remove Geno's cameo from Mario and Luigi then why would they decide that he should be DLC for Smash?
People latch onto that interview so hard, but really I think it was Sakurai explaining why the character wouldn't be in. He mainly talked about how Geno's arm guns fit Mii Gunner really well, and he said that he hoped the fans were satisfied with it.
And in terms of Square Enix characters, I can guarantee that SE and Nintendo would want to push Sora or Slime harder then Geno, since both have MUCH more selling power, and Sora could lead to his collection of games being ported to Switch for the first time ever. Slime would also help push DQ11 Switch.

Want: 80%
I've played Mario RPG since I was a kid. I adore both Mallow and Geno.. but I adore them in the same way I adore Goombella, Koops, or Vivian. As a party member sidekick. I feel that Geno is just.. not big or important enough to be added to Smash. You can talk my ear of about fan's putting the character on a pedestal but take that away and look at nothing but the character and what do you have? Almost nothing, really.

But hey look at it this way. Geno is a spirit that possessed a doll. If you make a Geno Mii Gunner and attach the Geno Spirit, you're literally playing as Geno in the EXACT same way he was in Mario RPG
 

Opossum

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The rule is two sentences per score. You have two scores for Rex (chance and want) so that would require four sentences.
When was it ever the case that Want required two sentences? I get it for chance because it's a statement of likelihood, so one's thought process is kinda needed. But want? Nah man, that's purely subjective. Why does it need a two-sentence justification?

The rule has never been two sentences per score. It has always been two sentences total.
 

GoodGrief741

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When was it ever the case that Want required two sentences? I get it for chance because it's a statement of likelihood, so one's thought process is kinda needed. But want? Nah man, that's purely subjective. Why does it need a two-sentence justification?

The rule has never been two sentences per score. It has always been two sentences total.
Not according to TCT~Phantom TCT~Phantom and he makes the rules.
 

PokéfreakofBACON

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Geno-
Chance: 60%
Geno IS relevant. SMRPG has been re-released so many times on VC and the SNES classic and continues to be incredibly popular, and Smash fans have wanted him for years. If he's the first DLC character, it'll show everyone the fighter pack is aiming for fan requests, and more people will want to buy the season pass thing. Being a 3rd party character that hasn't appeared in a new game in a long time obviously brings him down, but people seriously underestimate his chances.

Want: 85%
I don't really want any 3rd party characters, I'd prefer this to stay a NINTENDO crossover. That said... Geno is a Mario character, and a really cool one from my favorite JRPG of all time. So yeah, I want him.

Banjo prediction: 23.69%

Rhythm girl x10 nom
 
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Opossum

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Not according to TCT~Phantom TCT~Phantom and he makes the rules.
Except in the past he clearly stated that two sentences for chance will get your score counted. It's the entire reason some folks have written lengthy explanations for their chance scores and did nothing for their want scores, and still had both scores counted.

You're out of line here.
 

GoodGrief741

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Except in the past he clearly stated that two sentences for chance will get your score counted. It's the entire reason some folks have written lengthy explanations for their chance scores and did nothing for their want scores, and still had both scores counted.

You're out of line here.
I have PMs with him saying it’s per score and not per character. I’d appreciate it if the tone were to get less aggressive.
 

TCT~Phantom

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It’s per score, has been per score for a while. I say exceptions happen if someone clearly puts a lot on one like say a lot for Chance or want but skimps on the other, but it has been per score.
 

Opossum

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I have PMs with him saying it’s per score and not per character. I’d appreciate it if the tone were to get less aggressive.
I'm not being aggressive here at all.

PMs that the thread itself doesn't see? Then I don't see how it's relevant. When the rule was put in place there was a trial period with higher forgiveness, but even after that ended pretty much nobody gave anyone issues with not having an explanation for a want score.

It's been a major issue with this thread in general. There's a lack of clear communication (just as an example, the OP of the thread contradicts what you are saying here because it doesn't say the word "each," which is vital for this rule) and signs of unprofessionalism in general (even going beyond rule inconsistencies, there's stuff like scores taking forever to update and partiality of the hosts coming into effect, skewing things).
 

GoodGrief741

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I'm not being aggressive here at all.

PMs that the thread itself doesn't see? Then I don't see how it's relevant. When the rule was put in place there was a trial period with higher forgiveness, but even after that ended pretty much nobody gave anyone issues with not having an explanation for a want score.

It's been a major issue with this thread in general. There's a lack of clear communication (just as an example, the OP of the thread contradicts what you are saying here because it doesn't say the word "each," which is vital for this rule) and signs of unprofessionalism in general (even going beyond rule inconsistencies, there's stuff like scores taking forever to update and partiality of the hosts coming into effect, skewing things).
I have communicated many, many times that the rule is specifically two sentences per score. Every time somebody had a concern or felt that I had made a mistake, if they pointed it out I responded quickly and with an explanation. I never got any followup complaints. I’m sorry if despite all that you felt that the rules weren’t communicated to your satisfaction, but now you know and it should be pretty clear for you and everyone else reading this. If anyone still has any doubts, I encourage them to present them and I will clarify to the best of my ability.
 

TCT~Phantom

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I'm not being aggressive here at all.

PMs that the thread itself doesn't see? Then I don't see how it's relevant. When the rule was put in place there was a trial period with higher forgiveness, but even after that ended pretty much nobody gave anyone issues with not having an explanation for a want score.

It's been a major issue with this thread in general. There's a lack of clear communication (just as an example, the OP of the thread contradicts what you are saying here because it doesn't say the word "each," which is vital for this rule) and signs of unprofessionalism in general (even going beyond rule inconsistencies, there's stuff like scores taking forever to update and partiality of the hosts coming into effect, skewing things).

Literally it has been this way for a long time. Two sentences each. You knew this. This happened with you on the last one day in particular where your scores were not counted. Whenever I post about this thread in other threads, I mention two per score.

Also for professionalism, this is not a super professional thread. Scores take time to come out partially because I want them to be as accurate as possible and make sure to run at least four run throughs to make sure I am accurate. For example early on I made a math error that ended up knocking a character down a few percent in want, which got caught by someone which was good. Scores should be out tonight or tomorrow night.

Also I will be partial when discussing characters and concepts. That is the point of the game. I won’t outrigt bar anything unless it fails to meet a rule. There’s a reason Merric, a character which I have been very against rating (primarily because I view it as such a non Chance) is slated on the DLC schedule. There was a dedicated effort to rate him, which I disagree with but will respect. People will be partial with characters and concepts they won’t like. I usually even rate generously in want if I am convinced by people in the thread.

Also this is not some sort of formal event. This is a game in the end. This is a sample that is not representative of the population. We did do ok at points in terms of speculation, but we clearly overrated and underrated a few characters across the board. Overall I feel when we do analysis it can be a good source of info, but many favors keep this from being professional. Perhaps the biggest factor is rallying behind a character. Elma, who is not a huge request, was sixth on our top ten of Want at one point. Geno people right now can be seen doing this as well. I encourage people to participate , but rallying can damper it.
 

CaptainAmerica

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Mii Costume

Now the big one...
Pinocchio

Chance: 35%
Want: 0%

Sakurai likes him, and he has a rabid fanbase. Sm4sh has shown third parties are a non-issue and he got the Mii costume, so he’s definitely visible.

But ugh, no thanks. At all.

I never understood all the support for him in the first place. A (i) third party (ii) one-off character who’s (iii) spin-off only from (iv) over twenty years ago (v) with no future who’s (vi) not exactly iconic. Any one of those points is used as a hit against other characters we’ve rated so far, so why is a character with all six better?

If Geno gets in above Daisy, that is just a royal **** you to Daisy fans. And feel free to replace “Daisy” with “Waluigi” for another Mario rep, “Midna” or “Skull-Kid” as one-offs who actually bothered to get a remake, or “Doomguy” or “Dovahkiin” for third parties whose games made immense impacts.

Geno’s one of those few characters I actively don’t want because he does hit all the criteria for irrelevance. There are too many characters I want who are denied by various arguments above, so someone with that many hits against him should not be considered a Nintendo All-Star because of nothing but a vocal fanbase. Give him a trophy in the next game and leave it at that.

Prediction for Isabelle: 29.6%
Nom: something from Skyrim x5
I’ll bump the chance up to 40%, but very begrudgingly. And I’d drop my want score if I could.

With the game seeming to be fanservicey, and with as rabid a fanbase as Geno has, it’s looking likely. Sakurai has even mentioned him by name, which he’s only done for one other character - Ridley.

Still, Geno is only known from a single spinoff twenty plus years ago, so we can’t assume that there’s some massive secret fanbase of teenagers who make up a silent majority like Bayonetta had. Geno hasn’t shown up in any other spinoffs, so nobody really knows him outside of Smash speculation circles. You’d think Nintendo would just buy the rights to Geno (not like Square’s using him) and start letting him show up in Mario Karts/Parties/etc so people would get a feel for him and his personality (which is an aspect not many people talk about)

We like to say that Waluigi is in a perfect place in the game since he’s never been in a main series game, only every other spinoff where he’s a walking meme. And Geno...was never in a main series game, only a single 22 year old spinoff where he wasn’t even the most important party member.

Not to mention that we’re hitting saturation on Mario characters (we already have one), and that third-parties need to be more strictly vetted. Bomberman gives a nice idea - stick him as an assist, and then we’re good.

But here’s the deal: I’ll support your one-off third-party from a 20-year-old cult classic if you manage to get in my one-off third-party from a 7-year-old triple-A megahit that proved Nintendo can play with the big boys. If I get a playable Dovahkiin, I’m rating everyone 90+in want. But until the roster is big enough for the Dragonborn, Geno’s place is not in the roster either.
New Chance (this DLC is it): 5%
New Chance (more DLC): 25%
Want: 0.00%

It's always fun when Geno comes up - it really shows how much of an echo chamber the Smash speculation scene is.

Here's the deal - Geno's game was over 20 years ago, and only got localized in Europe in 2008 (now 10 years ago). He didn't even bother to show up in the Mario/Squeenix crossovers. He is the definition of an obscure side character, and the only reason anyone talks about him is that he's got a fanbase. Why not Mallow? Same game, same impact, but there's nothing there.

People love to talk about Geno and how much Sakurai wanted him more than anyone else on the roster and that he's his absolute number one choice. And we all reference the same article. Still, I don't see the Sakurai quote of "Oh, Geno is totes my favorite character ever, but those ****** at Square won't let me use him! Oh I wish upon everything that I could get him in!!!!!" It really sounds more like "It would have been fun, but it wouldn't work out so he's not in."

Now DLC of Geno would sell well...to the speculation scene (and Geno is divisive, so there's no guarantee that every Smash speculator would buy it). To the casual crowd...not likely. Especially if the Spirits don't even have infoboxes anymore, then people won't be able to figure out who he is or what games he's from. With the suits picking DLC, is it likely that they're going for an obscure character from an ancient cult classic game that has a small but dedicated following, or a groundbreaking guaranteed seller to the casual market (which is likely much bigger)?

Geno would have made a great assist so he gets acknowledged, and then we can learn more about him from his character description (again, assuming spirits get background info). True, we haven't seen a spirit yet, but the character icon is interesting - there probably is a spirit in game (notice the icon uses the same official render we see all the time...so Geno didn't get a new one. And with DLC already decided, it seems they're not going to promote people unless we get another DLC wave.

Yes, I have some bias against him. I don't know the game at all, and I'm a fan of the current Mario crowd in all of the spinoffs (:ultmario::ultluigi::ultpeach::ultdaisy::ultrosalina::ultyoshi::ultwario:Waluigi:ultbowser:). Waluigi missing that is a bit annoying - I'm not a WAA superfan, but he does seem to be missing out as just an assist. Yes, PP getting in before him was funny since it was so random. But Geno before Waluigi is just weird to me. Geno hits every point that we've used to knock down characters before, so it does seem hypocritical when people champion him but deny most other characters because of various reasons.

But as I said before: if we get Dovahkiin, I will delightfully and unironically support Geno's addition. Until then? No thank you.

Banjo Prediction: 29.3%
Nom: More DLC x5
 

Opossum

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Literally it has been this way for a long time. Two sentences each. You knew this. This happened with you on the last one day in particular where your scores were not counted. Whenever I post about this thread in other threads, I mention two per score.

Also for professionalism, this is not a super professional thread. Scores take time to come out partially because I want them to be as accurate as possible and make sure to run at least four run throughs to make sure I am accurate. For example early on I made a math error that ended up knocking a character down a few percent in want, which got caught by someone which was good. Scores should be out tonight or tomorrow night.

Also I will be partial when discussing characters and concepts. That is the point of the game. I won’t outrigt bar anything unless it fails to meet a rule. There’s a reason Merric, a character which I have been very against rating (primarily because I view it as such a non Chance) is slated on the DLC schedule. There was a dedicated effort to rate him, which I disagree with but will respect. People will be partial with characters and concepts they won’t like. I usually even rate generously in want if I am convinced by people in the thread.

Also this is not some sort of formal event. This is a game in the end. This is a sample that is not representative of the population. We did do ok at points in terms of speculation, but we clearly overrated and underrated a few characters across the board. Overall I feel when we do analysis it can be a good source of info, but many favors keep this from being professional. Perhaps the biggest factor is rallying behind a character. Elma, who is not a huge request, was sixth on our top ten of Want at one point. Geno people right now can be seen doing this as well. I encourage people to participate , but rallying can damper it.
When I was talking about being partial, I was talking about when you outright discouraged people from voting for Box Theory because you thought it wasn't worth rating...shortly before it was proven correct in the final direct. It's one thing when you give your own viewpoint during ratings, as that's to be expected, but it's another thing when it potentially sways what topics get voted for.
 

TCT~Phantom

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When I was talking about being partial, I was talking about when you outright discouraged people from voting for Box Theory because you thought it wasn't worth rating...shortly before it was proven correct in the final direct. It's one thing when you give your own viewpoint during ratings, as that's to be expected, but it's another thing when it potentially sways what topics get voted for.
I can ask people not to vote for something but I still counted box theory votes. When I said I would rather not rate Merric I did nothing. I will be partial, but I won’t not count something even if I disagree with it. I don’t throw out scores unless they are either highly factually inaccurate (and when that happens I inform people and let them omit inaccurate statements) or fail to meet sentences rule. I remain impartial when counting 0s for my most wanted.
 

GoodGrief741

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When I was talking about being partial, I was talking about when you outright discouraged people from voting for Box Theory because you thought it wasn't worth rating...shortly before it was proven correct in the final direct. It's one thing when you give your own viewpoint during ratings, as that's to be expected, but it's another thing when it potentially sways what topics get voted for.
Box Theory was stuck around the 20 nom mark since about a week after it happened, which was iirc before TCT spoke out about what he thought should and shouldn’t be rated. There’s not much to be done if people lose interest in nominating something.
 

Opossum

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I can ask people not to vote for something but I still counted box theory votes. When I said I would rather not rate Merric I did nothing. I will be partial, but I won’t not count something even if I disagree with it. I don’t throw out scores unless they are either highly factually inaccurate (and when that happens I inform people and let them omit inaccurate statements) or fail to meet sentences rule. I remain impartial when counting 0s for my most wanted.
I mean that's fair I suppose. Still kinda rubs me the wrong way, I'll admit, but it is what it is.
 

UtopianPoyzin

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Opossum Opossum GoodGrief741 GoodGrief741 and TCT~Phantom TCT~Phantom ; reading what has been said, I can confirm that there has been meaningful discussion, and that there was a miscommunication concerning whether there are 2 sentences per score or character. I can verify that GoodGrief741 has called me out on that once in the past and did not count my nominations. However, there has been a lot of debating, and perhaps this isn't the place to post all of it? Maybe the first few were necessary, but keep in mind the quantity.

(Edit: I meant to say quantity, not quality. Fixed now)


This probably isn't the place for me to say. I'm just glad that the discussion has reached a conclusion, and that everybody has a better understanding of the rules.

This is in good faith, please don't take this the wrong way. Just wanting to diffuse any drama.
 
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Icedragonadam

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Geno

Chance: 1%. Sorry he's not getting in. He's a literal who outside of hardcore Smash fans. Doesn't help that he's a just a side character as well. SE would go with someone with more profitability like a DQ character or Lara Croft.


Want: 20% Maybe in Base Game I wouldn't mind, but when it comes to DLC, I want someone actually worth it. Sorry Geno but you're out with this one.

Nominate Concept: All DLC characters are 3rd Party x10
 
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11th

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I don't mean to drag this out, but now I'm curious... what gets counted as a sentence? I know I tried to pair down my earlier posts because I'm prone to rambling and long-winded sentences, so there's a chance that they may not have been counted (and if so, I accept that), but is the content of the sentence taken into account at all?

There's a difference between these example "want" explanations:
-"I like them. I want them in."
-"I think this character could fill a gap for their series in Smash, and they could bring a neat moveset to the game, but I don't really care if they get in or not."
One is the absolute minimum, while the other at least attempts to give some reasoning, even if it's technically one proper sentence. Would the first be counted in spite of that, would both be dismissed, or could the second be counted despite not meeting the rule?
 

PrettyIvyPearls22

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It's been a while, but I'll bite with this one. Hope I'm not too late!

GENO
Chance: 5%
So yeah, Geno......Oh boy, this one. Sorry, I don't see him making it in, especially over other Square characters that Square themselves would want to put in over Geno. It's just a big echo chamber when it comes to him and Smash speculation at this point. For me it was base game or nothing for Geno as far being that second Square character goes. As of now that Square spot is up for grabs for anybody else but him at this point. Square would choose literally anyone else from Sora to Dragon Quest and we could get someone else from Final Fantasy again (for all we know) those franchises represnt what Square is all about to video games within the RPG genre way better than this puppet from Mario. You guys want Geno to represent that for Square! Really? No thanks.
I
I just don't see it aligning for him anymore. Sorry.


Want: Abstain
I never understood the appeal or hype around Geno. I've played Super Mario RPG before and recently again as of last year because of the Super NES Classic. I don't get it. The Mii costume is what Geno is if you ask me. Let him just be that. As a big Square Enix fan myself, I never thought of Geno being their best choice to be their second rep, especially if it's paid DLC.


Nominations: I don't know who to go to for nominations, and I'm pretty sure a lot of characters has rated since I've last been on here, so I'll just wait for the next interesting character to rate.

NOTE: Also, I can't belive how much things can change within a course of a year of specualation. If this was a couple of months Geno would be doing a lot better right now, but because he wasn't in the base game people are changing their tune on him again. This is why we should not say that certain characters are "locks" or "shoo ins."
 
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Troykv

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Geno

Geno...

Chance: 20%...

This one is... weird... Geno technically isn't the kind of character you would expect in Smash Bros... but he's incredible popular, and even Sakurai recognize his potential as a Smash Character... while isn't the most likely idea, he is at least in the creator's mind already, a with a positive picture.

Want: 55%

I admire Geno's fans dedication; and he would be fun to play... Never stop believing~
Well... Geno's sittuation is pretty much the same, with the only major differences being some new positives and negatives.. so... heck, just leave the same scores xD.

Chance: 20%

Want: 55%

______________

Predictions:

Banjo: 33.3%

Nominations:

Reimu Hakurei x10
 

DaUsername

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Geno

Chance 95%
Want 100%
Geno: Chance: 1%.Want: 30%. He's unlikely, period.
You guys are gonna need to explain your scores if you want them to be counted
I don't mean to drag this out, but now I'm curious... what gets counted as a sentence? I know I tried to pair down my earlier posts because I'm prone to rambling and long-winded sentences, so there's a chance that they may not have been counted (and if so, I accept that), but is the content of the sentence taken into account at all?

There's a difference between these example "want" explanations:
-"I like them. I want them in."
-"I think this character could fill a gap for their series in Smash, and they could bring a neat moveset to the game, but I don't really care if they get in or not."
One is the absolute minimum, while the other at least attempts to give some reasoning, even if it's technically one proper sentence. Would the first be counted in spite of that, would both be dismissed, or could the second be counted despite not meeting the rule?
Honestly, when I can't think of a second sentence, I usually just take one of the commas and turn it into a period.
 

Ze Diglett

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I must say I'm a bit confused by all the people coming in here and saying something along the lines of "Square would choose Sora or a Dragon Quest character instead, so Geno's done for". You all realize Square Enix doesn't choose the characters for Nintendo's game, right? Believe it or not, Nintendo does have a say in what characters go in their own game, and I don't think they'd go for Sora, a character whose benefits begin and end with Ultimate for them, would need to have DLC profits split between both Square and Disney, would cost extra to license, and serves only to promote a major release coming to every platform but their own, as their first, second, or probably even third choice. From an economical standpoint, Sora's not as obvious a choice as people assume. Remember, negotiation is always a two-way street, and just as we shouldn't consider solely Nintendo's interests in these types of deals, we also shouldn't only consider what Square Enix wants, which is the trap that I'm seeing an awful lot of posters here fall into.
 
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Mogisthelioma

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You guys are gonna need to explain your scores if you want them to be counted
Sakurai said he wanted him in but these days it's becoming harder and harder for him to add favorites. While I think he has a chance, it's not good compared to Sora/Steve/Generic Fe fighter/Dee.
 

Joinallthreacs.smash

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Chance 23% : I don't think it is very likely because :ultpiranha: was our new Mario character and a big boi ghost named King Boo stands in his way, i think that Nintendo does acknowledge Geno's exsistence but, he is not relevant in the slightest. King Boo also has a new game comming so, you know

Want 50%: completely neutral
 
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