Rate Their Chances- Smash Ultimate Day 349: First Party characters after the Fighters Pass

TCT~Phantom

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Can we just set a general rule on timing then? I'm EST for example, so judging by your typical post schedule maybe saying each day rolls over at 10PM EST would be fair. Would definitely be useful so everyone knows the exact timetable they have to work with each day.
I do not think I could establish a consistent time due to life stuff.

Rex and Pyra
64.69% Chance
46.10% Want

Rex and Pyra have ousted Wolf as the second most likely character overall. However, there has been a lot of controversy within the want section, as there were several very high scores and very low scores. Perhaps XC2 is too much anime for some people.

@KeybladeSmasher was the closest so they get five extra noms.

Today we have a double day of Squirtle and Ivysaur. Rate the 2/3 of Pokemon trainer that got cut. Also please predict the scores for Shantae Tomorrow.
 
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Both get the same rating

Squirtle and Ivysaur
Chance : 5%
Honestly despite being veterans, they face too much competition and we already have two vastly more popular starters in Smash. The 6 we have now are the best for Pokemon lineup and if any more get added, I don't think it'll be these two

Want: 20% I enjoyed playing as them I prefer their evolution line to Charizard.

Prediction Shantae
10%

Nominate Skull Kid x5
 
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Squirtle and Ivysaur

Chances: 15% apiece

Honestly, this is probably high-balling it, but yeah, they don't have much of a shot. Their best chance is if the game started as a port that brought back the cut Brawl vets for easy roster padding, but even then they'd have needed a lot of reworking to exist outside of the Pokemon Trainer concept and at least one new move apiece. By comparison, simpler vets like Wolf and Ice Climbers are much easier and much more worthwhile. They're not in the worst spot for vets though. They both have completely unique movesets unlike Young Link and Pichu, and don't have to deal with the murky waters of rights negotiations like Snake does. It's not impossible for that situation to happen, but I definitely wouldn't count on it. If one happens, the other is a lock though.

Want: 80% each

Man I miss these guys. Charizard feels lonely without his lil buddies in Smash 4 to me, I personally much preferred both of their movesets to his, and I'd love the chance to use them without the stupid stamina and type weakness mechanics (poor Ivysaur ;n; ). I hope the situation I mentioned above comes to fruition, but I'm resigned to them not happening. I'd be so hype if they did show up again though.

Shantae Prediction: 13.21%

Nominations:
Dark Matter Blade x 5
 
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TCT~Phantom

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Oh cool, a grace period. Might as well take this opportunity to start weighing in on these.

Rex and Pyra

Chance: 63%

Sakurai's a big fan of the franchise, these two have plenty of potential for a unique moveset and gimmick, and their series is only expanding, both in sales and importance. They're one of the safer bets for Smash Switch's roster.

So why am I not giving them such a low score for that resume? Mostly because I have a sneaking suspicion that we'll be getting a XenoX character instead. Character selection would have been happening during when Xenoblade X was more relevant, not Xenoblade 2, and unless Sakurai had super early access, I don't see him being able to get them ready in time for a 2018 release considering the game's late 2017 launch. I still rate them as high as I do though, because I feel they'll be very strong candidates for DLC. At that point, it'd be up to Sakurai's discretion whether or not we deserve three full Xenoblade characters. And considering how he's treated his other favored series *coughkidicarusfireemblemcough* I have a feeling he won't be too worried about it.

Want: 30%

I hate Xenoblade 2's artstyle and character design and much prefer the look of the other two titles. Rex looks like an incredibly unlikable character from what little I've seen of him. That said, I have a friend who's massively rooting for these two, so I'd not be fully mad.

Predictions
Squirtle: 10.11%
Ivysaur: 8.55%

Nominations
Dark Matter Blade x 5

Umm..Ya missed the day man.
 

Ura

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Sloppy Seconds (no not really lol)

Chance

Squirtle: 15%
Ivysaur: 25%

Neither of the two are all that likely really. TPCi wants their newer PKMN to be in the game so if there is any additions it's going to be from Gen 8 or Gen 7 if the former couldn't make the game in time. I would say Ivysaur is a tad bit more likelier due to the lack of any grass PKMN. Charizard continues the legacy of the PKMN Trainer Trio from Brawl.

Want

Squirtle: 70%
Ivysaur: 60%

I would be down for either of the two returning or even better both of them returning. More so Squirtle who was one of my favorites in Brawl.

Prediction: Shantae

Chance: 12%
Want: 54%

Nominations

Andy X 3
Agumon X 2
 
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me: "I don't want to do ratings because we know nothing of the game"

also me: "

Squirlte and Ivysaur

Chance: both 5%
Might be being generous. Best chance is that if they are reusing a lot of assets the dev team decides they can go back for a few vets that were left behind because the other vets were so easy. Otherwise, they don't really have a shot. They are in the same place they were for Smash For. No new variables. Arguably they are in a worse spot. At least XY had the Kanto starters in a prime spot again.

Also I doubt we get one without the other

Want:
Squirtle: 50%
They're ok. Would be nice to see an updated moveset I guess and not needing to deal with stamina

Ivysaur: 100%
Ivysaur was one of my most played in Brawl. I want my baby back

Noms
Palutena x5"
 

DaUsername

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Squirtle & Ivysaur
Chance: 15% (For both)
The only way I see them coming back is if they bring back every character ever, which is pretty unlikely.
Want: 90% (For both)
All the vets need to be brought back.

Shantae prediction: 8%
Noms: Phoenix Wright x5
 

chemo

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Squirtle and Ivysaur

Chance: 3%

Eh, I just don't see them coming back considering the amount of Pokemon representatives and there's probably newer-gen Pokemon that are higher priority

Want: 5%

Basically the same reasons as above

Nomination:

Doomguy x5

(also sorry if i sound rude but you may want to merge the doomguy and doom slayer votes since it's basically the same character)
 
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Squirtle
Chance: 5%
Want: 30%

Ivysaur
Chance: 5%
Want: 10%


I liked Squirtle from the anime so I was sad to see him go. Never cared too much for Ivysaur. They most likely won't return individually and PKMN Trainer is dead since transformation is gone. Charizard will be the only gen 1 starter we have in Smash from now on.

Shantae Prediction: Chance 20%

noms: Tethu X5
 
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Quetzal77

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Squirtle
Chance: 2%
He was in because of the RB remakes. Unless Pokemon Switch is another RB remake, which I highly doubt, the Pokemon Co. are gonna push for other monsters, and they are more influential than other companies in deciding which of their characters get in.

Want: 5%
I like him, but I don't really need him to be in Smash. His moveset could always come back on a new mon.

Ivysaur
Chance: 1%
Same as Squirtle, only Ivysaur is less popular.

Want: 5%
Same reasoning as above.

Shantae prediction: 17%

Nominations: Pyra/Mythra (without Rex), Elma, Mipha x 3
 
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Squirtle & Ivysaur

Chances 1% I just don't see either of them making it in.

Want 50% I've always liked them but it would be kind of weird without the Pokemon Trainer and Charizard to complete the set.

Nominations:
Jibanyan 2x
Midna 2x
Skull Kid 1x
 
D

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Squirtle and Ivysaur

Chance: 10% (for both)

They seemed to be low priority after the Pokemon Trainer trio was split, and only Charizard ended up returning in Smash 4. They also didn't seem to have as much of a following on the Ballot as Wolf or Snake or the Ice Climbers did, but there's no real way of knowing that by simply looking at fan polls, is there?

Want: 60% (Squirtle), 50% (Ivysaur)

Prediciton: Shantae - 14.5%

Nomination: Shulk x5
 
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Squirtle

Chance:35%

Want: 60%

IvySaur

Chance: 35%

Want: 70%

Since they're cut vets their likelyhood is a little more in my opinion. Not to Wolf and Ice Climbers extent though.

Prediction

Shantae: 24.67%

Nomination

Lucas x5
 
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Squirtle

Chance: 30%
Squirtle was very popular in the anime and was easily the best/most popular of Pokemon Trainer's Pokemon. Add that with the fact Japan generally wants returning characters more than newcomers, and he has a decent-ish chance. The only problem is that there are already a lot of Pokemon characters, and almost definitely a Gen 7/8 newcomer as well.

Want: 90%
Yes, please, I loved him.

Ivysaur

Chance: 10%
Significantly less popular than Squirtle and Charizard, mostly because it's a mid-evolution, and is known for being the anchor that sunk Pokemon Trainer into mediocrity.

Want: 10%
While I don't hate it as much as the Ice Climbers, I still hold a grudge for ruining Squirtle and Charizard for me. It won't matter because it'll be its own character if it gets back in, and they might be able to make something decent out of it, but I'm still mad at it.

Shantae prediction: 40%

Nominations:
Travis Touchdown x2
Funky Kong x3
 
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Fane

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Squirtle & Ivysaur

Chances:
10% (S) 5% (I)
-I doubt we'll see either of them back as playable characters. Though Squirtle is more popular than Ivysaur and has a better chance because of this, they clearly chose Charizard over the two when it came to Smash 4, and considering they'll likely bring in a Gen 7 Pokemon, which if they don't cut any reps from the series, their inclusion would bring a total of 9 representatives. That's TOO much for this series at the moment even though it's one of the most popular and iconic of the represented series.

Want:
60% (I) 40% (S)
-I love Ivysaur's unique moveset, and I think we could use a grass type to complete the fire/water/grass trio, but if we get a grass type rep, I'd rather it be Sceptile, Decidueye, or even Serperior. Since we got Greninja, I don't care too much for Squirtle, even though he was cute and had a good moveset.

Nominations:
-Poipole (Pokemon) 3x
-Petey Piranha (Super Mario) 2x

Shantae Predictions: 33%
 

FrozenRoy

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(As someone who likes anime, the problem isn't Rex/Pyra is less that they're too anime, and more they're just baaad.)

Chances, Squirtle: 5%

Squirtle has anime appearance and is fairly popular, but really, this character is pretty old, not very popular, not indicated to be considered for inclusion in Smash 4 to my knowledge, not to mention that this is an old Pokemon and so doesn't even have appeal for advertising or whatnot. The 5% is solely due to anime popularity.

Want, Squirtle: 10%

I'd rather have Wartortle. Squirtle's 10% is because if exclusively sunglasses Squirtle got in or with that as an alt costume, then I would be pretty happy, but that's not gonna happen.

Chances, Ivysaur: 0%

Even less likely than Squirtle. I'd expect Bulbasaur to get in more, Ivysaur is pretty obviously only in to round out Pokemon Trainer. I would be shocked

Want, Ivysaur: 20%

He was kind of fun to play, I like Ivysaur's design, soooo many more Pokemon I'd rather have though.

Nominations

Travis Touchdown x4
Blue Bowser x1

Prediction

Shantae: 28%
 

CaptainAmerica

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This one is gonna be painful...

Captain of the Squad and his Floral Partner in Crime

Chance: 5%
Want: 100+%

This cut hurt. I was pissed that Mewtwo was gone for Brawl, I was bummed about Wolf, but this cut was the worst.

I love Gen 1. That was my first Pokémon game, so of course I like those mons on the whole better than later generations. I can still name them all and their types in order.

I've never been so hype for a character as I was when they announced the Trainer on the Dojo. That was a character I was not at all expecting, and I loved it at first sight. I think I even woke my roommate up I was shouting so loud. The character was a genius idea, and really fun to play. Since then, I've traded Pokémon in my main series games so I could have these three as my fire/grass/water for basing my teams.

Now I know it's an unpopular opinion on the boards, but I do like the transformation mechanic (eew, filthy casual). It was loads of fun to learn all three movesets, and be able to use them each when needed. I usually stuck with Squirtle for most of the game, but performing a bullet seed as Ivy when standing directly under someone's platform was great. Honestly, Charizard was my worst character. The stamina never affected me too much, because they ran out of stamina around the time I hit KO percentages anyway, so I could always just get ready for the next mon to come out.

Pity they decided to just remove the transformations instead of fixing them. In Melee, Zelda and Shiek were loaded simultaneously, so you could instantly transform, in case you needed Shiek's speed and then immediately Zelda's recovery. In Brawl, the game had to pause while the next form loaded, so that affected the flow of battle. If that could be fixed, the Trainer could be more viable, especially if they also let you choose which way to go (choose to switch Squirt for Ivy or the Zard, not go in a defined order).

It's highly unlikely that, as unevolved Pokémon from the first generation, they would come back on their own. Squirtle does have a bit of a leg up in popularity because of the 1st season of the anime and the fact that nobody cares about the middle children, but even so...they're nothing without the team together. And therein lies the problem. If Charizard stays solo, the best we can hope for is that Squirtle and Ivy can be easily ported as DLC. They could also do what I really want and reassemble the avengers, but I think that there are only three people on these forums including me who want the transformations back, so I don't know how popular that idea is in the outer world.

And to those who are saying "just give his moves to a new gen mon:" NO! I WANT SQUIRTLE DARNIT! If I wanted another Pokémon, I'd ask for a different one. (Feel free to add any non-Captain America language as appropriate)

Please, please, please give us the team back. Or at the very least make these two into DLC so I can play them and then anyone who doesn't like them can avoid them.

Prediction for Shantae: 31.5% and a lot of arguing
Nomination: Mewtwo x5 (I'm sorry, I wasn't bashing you, I love you too!)
 

Yams

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Squirtle and Ivysaur:
Chance: 0%
I just really don’t see any reason for or possibility of their return.

Want: 60%
I actually enjoyed playing as them, in PM at least. I’d imagine they’d be fun characters, but not the most of my desires.

Shantae prediction: 63.04%

Noms:
Dragonborn x3
Geno x2
 

a smart guy

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For this rating, I'm assuming we're rating them as characters you can select on the title screen, and not part of the Pokemon Trainer.

Squirtle:
Chance: 15% He is a recognizable character who already has a moveset. The problem is we already have a water Pokemon in Greninja. I could see him getting in, but it's not likely.
Want: 50% I'm always down for more quick and small characters, and I love the Squirtle squad. I just didn't care for him in Brawl for some reason. Oh well.

Ivysaur:
Chance: 0% There's no way she gets in on her own. She is not iconic in the slightest, and there are plenty of other grass type Pokemon. Her only saving grace is being part of the Pokemon Trainer again, which I'm not rating right now.
Want: 20% I would feel weird if she took up a playable spot with all the other characters. However, I loved playing as Ivysaur in Brawl, so I would selfishly want her in.

Shantae Prediction: 43%

Nominations: Chibi-Robo x5
 
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I love how these forums are all for "bringing back veterans" and defending that Fire Emblem should have 6 characters, two dlc, and two that are clones.... yet highly more iconic characters in Squirtle and Ivysaur, easily more marketable to a non gaming audience, are essentially forgotten to this community.

Id say the only veterans more likely to come back are Wolf and the Ice Climbers.
 

Troykv

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I love how these forums are all for "bringing back veterans" and defending that Fire Emblem should have 6 characters, two dlc, and two that are clones.... yet highly more iconic characters in Squirtle and Ivysaur, easily more marketable to a non gaming audience, are essentially forgotten to this community.

Id say the only veterans more likely to come back are Wolf and the Ice Climbers.
Squirtle and Ivysaur have two important problems compared with other veterans:

1.- They will always have lower priority because Pokémon (Series) will try to get the newer Pokémon (species).

2.- They were essencially "carried" for Charizard's popularity, and him was the sole survivor of the trio's end; unlike other veterans that stand more in their own (that hurts them popularity-wise in this fandom, not exactly chance-wise).
 
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Squirtle and Ivysaur have two important problems compared with other veterans:

1.- They will always have lower priority because Pokémon (Series) will try to get the newer Pokémon (species).

2.- They were essencially "carried" for Charizard's popularity, and him was the sole survivor of the trio's end.
Charizard may be the most popular of the three, but Squirtle, and honestly any identifiable Pokemon, is more recognizable than at least half of the Smash roster at large.

Also... Fire Emblem and Pokemon at this point are being handled in the same way.
 
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Squirtle-

Chance: 20% He has veteran status favoring him, and I won't rule out the possibility of Pokemon Trainer as a whole returning since 3DS isn't bogging down the game. I think if they wanted to bring back any kind of transforming character, Pokemon Trainer would be the most logical one due to that being a major Pokemon mechanic. I think Squirtle also has a chance of returning as a solo character if Sakurai is feeling ambitious.

Want: 100% Pokemon Trainer was my favorite character to play in Brawl, and I mained Squirtle in PM. Would love to see it return.

Ivysaur-

Chance: 15%: You can largely copy my chance section from Squirtle for this. However the difference is that I don't think Ivysaur has any chance of returning as a standalone, so it has a lower overall chance.

Want: 100% Pokemon Trainer things, and Ivysaur felt really satisfying to play. Bulbasaur was my favorite gen 1 starter, too.

Nominations:
Mipha x5
 

Arcanir

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Squirtle and Ivysaur

Chance: 5%
Oh my poor sweet starters, fate has truly been cruel to you.

The two of them got in partially owed to PT's gimmick, and now that it looks like it's gone with little hint to its return, they unfortunately are left upstream without a paddle. Despite being very popular in their own franchise, the franchise in question has an ever expanding cast that usually prioritizes adding new faces, which leaves them in stiff competition that will take precedence due to the very nature of their roster picks. Additionally, unlike the Ice Climbers or Wolf, there doesn't seem to be as much of a push for their return even in terms of the ballot, which means that they also may not be able to rely on fan want to bring them back. They're stuck in a place where neither the developers or the fans really desire their return and prioritize other characters over them, and that unfortunately leaves them to fall to the wayside alongside the gimmick that brought them in.

Want:
Squirtle: 80%
I love this little guy, he was my first starter in Blue and I loved playing with him the most out of the three. Losing him was a painful blow and I still do miss him even now.

Ivysaur: 50%
I don't have as much of an attachment to her, but I wouldn't mind her return nonetheless.

Edit:

Nominations: Lycanroc x5
 
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Troykv

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Charizard may be the most popular of the three, but Squirtle, and honestly any identifiable Pokemon, is more recognizable than at least half of the Smash roster at large.

Also... Fire Emblem and Pokemon at this point are being handled in the same way.
Squirtle is definitely a popular character; I just comment that they suffer the syndrome that people believe before it would also affect Ike: being out-prioritized for a more recent character.

And about the second thing... at least with the Fire Emblem characters it seems Sakurai won't do new Unique Fire Emblem Main Character unless they have something cool to play around (unlike Pokémon where having a cool concept to play around is basically the appeal of a Pokémon).
 
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andimidna

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Squirtle and Ivysaur:
The only chances these characters have is if this game is marketed as the ultimate smash with every veteran. Like, I can’t see it any other way. Squirtle is popular, yea, but how are you going to dig back to a popular gen 1 Pokemon and ignore Meowth or Eevee or even Gengar, or plenty of other iconic choices? Because he has a moveset already made? I mean, that’s not a bad point, but I don’t see it. It hasn’t been balanced for the current state of the game and still requires a new down b and final smash. In general, his moveset was fun but somewhat bland. Plus, imagine including Squirtle and Charizard but NOT Ivysaur. I can’t see it.
And Ivysaur’s merits? Really nothing except veteran status, which takes me back to the possible “ultimate version of Smash.” Marketing it this way would require all vets imo, which means Snake and Pichu. I think if Snake doesn’t roadblock this entire idea, the concept of 3 lesser choices for Pokemon from the past would. Especially when the series is alive and progressing, not just with its new stars Decidueye and Mimikyu, but with a new generation we haven’t seen.
“Reps” isn’t really a thing, but I definitely think someone would speak up if the amount of Pokemon was suddenly 10, assuming 1 newcomer (Pikachu, Pichu, Jigglypuff, Mewtwo, Charizard, Ivysaur, Squirtle, Lucario, Greninja, Decidueye).
Besides, this way of marketing the game just seems inferior in general. This would just push the idea that it’s an enhanced port. Even if it is an enhanced port, they would be wise to market it as a new game, as that’s just blatantly more appealing. People want what’s new.
So, with all that said, I gotta quantify it all.
Squirtle chance: 2.5%
His inclusion without Ivysaur would look awkward, but so did a separate Sheik and ZSS at first. I’m not going to call it impossible, or equal to Ivysaur exactly.
Ivysaur chance: 1.5%
The middle child that never gets paid any attention.
Squirtle want: 60%
He was fun, but I’d rather move on. I’d gladly take a total of 10 Pokemon though if it didn’t require as much development, whatever
Ivysaur want: 65%
He was awkward and had a bad recovery, but he was the most visually interesting and unique, and still fun to play. his recovery wouldn’t be an issue in smash 4 since it’s no longer be a tether, another reason that probably makes him less likely. Only problem is he’d kinda stick out like a sore thumb a bit, but I guess that’s not entirely the case since there’s a story behind it, being the Trainer mechanic in Brawl and all. I don’t know, I love him, honestly, but I’m more interested in seeing new Pokémon. I love Decidueye, Mimikyu, Primarina, etc.
I would take him over Incineroar and Lycanroc though.
Shantae prediction: 26%
x4 Midna
x1 returning custom moves (concept)
Edit: Which of the 3 was most unique is subjective/debatable and I’m rethinking that point entirely tbh
 
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I love how these forums are all for "bringing back veterans" and defending that Fire Emblem should have 6 characters, two dlc, and two that are clones.... yet highly more iconic characters in Squirtle and Ivysaur, easily more marketable to a non gaming audience, are essentially forgotten to this community.
Id say the only veterans more likely to come back are Wolf and the Ice Climbers.
Well, actually 5, Lucina is a costume it doesn't matter she has her own space. But anyways, if by "Id say the only veterans more likely to come back are Wolf and the Ice Climbers" you mean from the cut veterans then yeah but that doesn't mean much in comparison to the likes of Pichu, but that still doesn't do much for their chances.
 

TheDukeofDorks

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Squirtle and Ivysaur

Chance for both: 5%

I cannot see Sakurai spending the time to bring back these two when the Pokemon company will almost certainly be pushing for more modern choices. Maybe if they come back alongside the Pokemon Trainer, but then that would be a downgrade for Charizard, and I don't see that as being very likely either.

Want for both: 60%

Honestly, I had completely forgotten about these two until Smash for Switch speculation started up. Would be nice to see them back, but I'm not particularly invested in their fates.

Prediction for Shantae: 18%

Nominating Bomberman x5
 

Graizen

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Squirtle and Ivysaur
Chances:
50%
Want: 30%

I really like them a lot, I think they play their part very well in Brawl, but unfortunately I do not think they should get in. The reason is quite simple: There are many other water and plant Pokémon that could represent the Pokémon franchise much better.

Nominating: Agumon x5
 

Erimir

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Squirtle & Ivysaur

Well, a thing here is that Pokemon is highly likely to get a newcomer regardless. But bringing back one of them is totally possible. I highly doubt that we'd see both return, but it has a small chance. Another issue is that the evolution positions were chosen for Pokemon Trainer... Squirtle as the starter, Ivysaur as the middle evolution, Charizard as the final evolution. As separate characters, this makes a bit less sense.

However, I would say that for Smash... those choices make sense. Blastoise is gonna be very Bowser-like in proportions. I guess he could still work, but yeah. Personally I think Wartortle looks kinda dumb. Bulbasaur is very similar in proportions to Pikachu, and Venusaur is bit too lumbering... Ivysaur is a good middle ground.

I'd note that in Smash 4, we have a water type... but not a grass type. Which is reason to think that Ivysaur would be a little more likely to return than Squirtle. Ivysaur also seems generally more unique in terms of design (not many quadrupeds) and move set. But Squirtle is still pretty different from Greninja, nonetheless.

Squirtle chance: 12%
Ivysaur: 18%
I think Ivysaur is a bit more likely due to greater uniqueness, however, both of them suffer from significant competition/recency bias for Pokemon representatives, and the fact that they probably only got in in the first place because of the Pokemon Trainer/Charizard idea. And for returning veterans, I think Wolf is a lot more likely.

Squirtle want: 60%
Ivysaur want: 85%
I'd be cool with Squirtle returning, it's cute and all. And while Greninja is also water-based, water-based attacks are hardly overrepresented in Smash (meanwhile, there's fire everywhere).

I'd be more pleased with Ivysaur returning though. For one, Bulbasaur was my first Pokemon ever (Pokemon Red). And I liked playing as Ivysaur more than Squirtle, it's more interesting, and there are even fewer plant-based attacks than water (Mega's Leaf Shield, Villager's Tree, Pikmin are kinda I suppose).

Either way, I'd be interested to see how they change the move sets due to the elimination of Pokemon Change.

Nominations: Bayonetta x5

Shantae prediction: 14%
 
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FrozenRoy

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I love how these forums are all for "bringing back veterans" and defending that Fire Emblem should have 6 characters, two dlc, and two that are clones.... yet highly more iconic characters in Squirtle and Ivysaur, easily more marketable to a non gaming audience, are essentially forgotten to this community.

Id say the only veterans more likely to come back are Wolf and the Ice Climbers.
Ivysaur isn't even the most iconic member of his line, let alone particularly iconic for Pokemon. I'm pretty confident most Smash 4 newcomers are a lot more iconic than Ivysaur, let alone Smash 5 possibilities. I mean there's a ton of Pokemon possibilities who are a lot more iconic and I feel would get in before Ivysaur as well.

Plus the vast majority of Fire Emblem characters added in are from Awakening/Fates, which sold very well, while Ivysaur is...really not iconic at all, I am going to guess most Pokemon players (not necessarily ones big enough to go on this forum) could not name Ivysaur if you asked them.
 

MasterWarlord

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Squirtle and Ivysaur chance: 15%
They'll never get in before Ice Climbers and Wolf, but those are very likely. Their best chance is if the Pokemon Trainer character is brought back, or they're last minute additions to pad the roster. These Pokemon are still pretty recognizable even today, even if Ivysaur should be Bulbasaur/Venusaur instead of the more obscure middle form. I'd argue that more people know who they are than some of the characters who made it into Smash 4, but they still don't have big chances.

Squirtle want: 8%
Ivysaur want: 50%

Squirtle's moveset was really boring and unimaginative, but Ivysaur brought a lot to the game as a quadruped with a more fun to play set. I also just like his design better. Still, I know that if they get in it'd be a package deal.

Predict Shantae 22.2%

Nominate Blue Bowser x5
 

Morbi

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Squirtle and Ivysaur

Chance: 25%

The inherent problem with rating the two of these is that it more or less depends on if Pokemon Trainer himself is returning, as that was how they originally were. Beyond that, the other issue is, why were they removed in the first place, was it a balance problem (which I suspect) or was it consistency with Sheik and Zero-Suit? Or perhaps it was because the 3DS could not handle transformation characters? Therein lies the fundamental crux that makes answering this question egregiously difficult. If it is the former, they are not returning, period. Zero percent chance. If it has to do with consistency, they could return individually, but why cut them in the first place? We are talking perhaps a 25% assuming they were on the priority list. They are not entirely likely but certainly possible in that scenario. If it is the latter, that limitation is gone; however, the paradigm is literally the same. Albeit, with the restriction cleared indefinitely, closer to a 50/50. I guess I will just go with the median, that is only fair.

Want: 50%

The same problem applies here. Will they return as one entity, or 3 separate characters. They might even pull a fast one and convert Squirtle to Blastoise or Ivysaur to Bulbasaur, to address popularity concerns and keep them both fresh. The thing is, almost every scenario sounds appealing to me. Whether Red returns or whether the Pokemon roster makes Mario look small, or even if they alter the characters, it is hard to deny the first generation starter Pokemon. Assuming worst case scenario, the two individually, unchanged, as that is the intent of the question, I put them a bit lower than most of my hopeful wishes.
 

Sailor Waddle Dee

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Squirtle & Ivysaur


Squirtle
Chance: 32% - Even though they were newcomers. I don't see either of these guys returning. I don't doubt for a second pokemon will have more characters in the roster. but I feel like we're more likely to see a newcomer than the likes of Squirtle or Ivysaur returning. that said, if 1 was to return, I'd say Squirtle has the better chance. when it comes to starter pokemon, 1st and final forms are more prominently featrued in things than middle forms. so that would possibly include smash as well.
Want: 60% - I'd like to see these guys return

Ivysaur
Chance: 30% - Like I said, I don't see their chances as high. but theres a chance they could come back. I could see Squirtle happening before Ivysaur though.
Want: 62% - Personally, I liked playing as Ivysaur more than Squirtle so I'd like to see him return more than Squirtle.

Prediction for Shantae: 46%

Nominations
Qbby x 3
Banjo & Kazooie x2
 
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Squirtle:

Chance:
5% - Charizard stole their thunder, and they can't stand on their own, there are simply far more marketable Pokémon they could include. I don't see either one of them getting in without the other either. The one and only chance they stand is for DLC, but I don't see that happening either.

Want: 60% - I like Squirtle, even if he's my least favorite of the three in Pokémon and I don't like his Smash moveset at all. I know the inclusion would also make my little brother very happy.

Ivysaur:

Chance:
5% - Same reasoning as for Squirtle.

Want: 90% - The Bulbasaur line is my favorite Pokémon evolutionary line and have been so ever since I got Pokémon Red 19 years ago, and even if Venusaur is my absolute favorite Pokémon it was a dream to get to play any one of them. Project M Ivysaur is also one of my favorite Smash characters throughout all of the games, and although I know it's wildly different to Brawl Ivysaur just getting something reminiscent of it would be so good. It's the only character who'll even get close to Ridley in terms of want % throughout this game, which says a lot about how much I want Ivysaur, the only reason it's not even closer is because I know it won't be the PM moveset.
 
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Young Water Starter Turtle and Littlebulb

Chance: 5% for both
With their main purpose being the transformation gimmick being gone for good (hopefully so), they have little to no valuable enough reason to come back.
Not to mention "too much Gen I Pokémon" and ":4greninja: replaced :squirtle: in the water starter niche".

Want: 50% for both
Wouldn't mind both of them either if they come back or not.


Nomination:
Concept: Sonic Mania stage x5

Shantae prediction:
22%
 
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Squirtle and Ivysaur
Chances for each: 12%

It might be said that Sakurai would want to recover as many past characters as possible, but unconfirmed Smash 3DS/Wii U characters are in the same situation as them right now, and I think are likely to get in general higher priority than cut characters. My reason for the low score is that I don't see them to be likely to get high in Sakurai's priority list, considering the sheer amount of other returning characters to get back and the obligatory newcomers. I think they have a better chance at being DLC though.

Want for both: 60%

Shantae prediction: 12.06%

Nominating:
Concept: veteran character artworks recycled from Smash 3DS/Wii U x53
 

AlphaSSB

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Ivysaur and Squirtle

Chances: 10% - Just to clarify, my rating for both is with the assumption that they come back as separate characters, like how Charizard did, but I personally don't see these two coming back. Unless Sakurai decides he wants to bring back all the veterans he possibly can, I don't think Sakurai would really see these two as something worth bringing back.

Want: 25% - I won't necessarily mind if they come back, but I'd be able to live without the both of them.

Nominations: Midna x5
 

TheAnvil

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Ivysaur & Squirtle
Chance: 25%
They're veterans, and we all know that Sakurai dislikes cutting characters. There are so few cuts now (with Ice Climbers and Wolf returns highly plausible) that the idea of Sakurai bringing back all veterans isn't at all absurd considering two of the others are easy clones.

Want: 100%
Ivysaur was my Brawl co-main, and I love me some Squirtle.

Nom: Banjo-Kazooie x5
 
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Depressed Gengar

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Squirtle & Ivysaur Chance: 5%
I guess Squirtle's in a somewhat better position since he's way more iconic and popular (blame Ivysaur's middle-stage syndrome) but I still can't see Sakurai bringing these two back.

Squirtle Want: 80%
Squirtle and the rest of his family were my favorite Pokémon for the longest time and Blastoise is still my second favorite. That said I can still definitely live without Squirtle.

Ivysaur Want: 15%
I like the Bulbasaur line but not enough for me to care about Ivysaur in Smash. And I just can't see any reason to bring Ivysaur back otherwise.

Shantae Prediction: 10%

Nominations: Dr. Eggman X5

:007:
 
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