Rate Their Chances- Smash Ultimate Day 349: First Party characters after the Fighters Pass

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Season 2: 40% This is the ULTIMATE Smash so it's definitely possible they can come back for more especially following Furukawa's comment for more DLC although it really depends on whether Sakurai wants to proceed with more characters past the first wave and the unlikely scenario where he'd appoint a successor in his place.

PREDICTIONS: WAVE 1

I see us either getting Banjo or Steve from Microsoft and I hope Banjo is the one that prevails.

For a Nintendo owned character, Bandana Dee has a pretty amazing chance I reckon. He has relevancy and fan popularity backing him up making him the most likely choice in my eyes and you can't argue that he's a generic enemy anymore lol. Edelgard or another Three Houses rep is another first party choice that can happen since Fire Emblem is one of the more notable Switch games releasing next year. Heck after Piranha Plant happened, I won't be shocked if Poochy will become a character to promote the new Yoshi game. I'm really eh on a big Gen 8 Pokemon since we just got Incineroar. Rhythm Heaven could definitely get a character in Wave 1 since that franchise wasn't affected as much as Golden Sun or Arms since popularity and relevancy helps it. Although it isn't as likely maybe we can get a classic character like Excite Bike/Mach Rider.

Regarding the Square Enix character, Nintendo being in charge of the selection hurts Geno for me but doesn't make him impossible, I see a Dragon Quest character or Sora being pretty likely so we need to wait and see. Personally I'd love Crono out of this bunch but the relevancy garbage can hold him back to the other candidates

I could see us getting a popular western third party character like Crash Bandicoot or Rayman or something from Bethesda maybe with it either being Doom-Slayer or Dovahkiin.

Lloyd Irving. I never played a Tales game but during the speculation cycle Lloyd really grew on me especially from how awesome his fan base is and I'm looking forward to giving the series a try. Tales is a big franchise with a game coming to Switch and Lloyd did get a Mii costume so I wouldn't be surprised if he gets in and I'll be cheering for his fans. Anyway Namco could still recieve a second representative such as Agumon, Heihachi/Jin etc.

PREDICTIONS: WAVE 2
It's hard to say for sure since we have no idea what is in wave 1 but they could add more fan favorite that missed their chance and promotional characters based on upcoming games down the line.
Since I think Rex barely missed the mark for wave 1 I think he has an amazing shot for Wave 2. Maybe they can even promote fan favorite characters that were relegated to assist trophy roles like Waluigi, Isaac, Bomber-Man, Ashley, Shadow, Skull Kid etc. Characters like Isaac and Spring-Man have easy replacements that perform the same functions such as Matthew and Spring-Tron to replace their current ATs if that were to happen or they could cut the AT completely which is the less likely scenario.

The only ones I ever see getting promoted are the ones in this image
assist trophy upgrade.png
 
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Season 2
Chance: 4% - Extremely unlikely. Sakurai specifically said five newcomers. The phrase “season 1” was never dropped and I’m not sure why we’d define five completely separate DLC purchases unveiled on five separate dates into a single “season” in the first place.
Want: 100% - Obviously, who wouldn’t want this?

DLC predictions (watch them all be wrong!!)
1. Geno - Many have pointed to a Square Enix DLC character coming and honestly I consider Geno to be by far the mostly likely candidate from that company. He’s one of the very few characters left that’s been continuously requested since Brawl and Sakurai seems to want him in.
2. Banjo Kazooie - He’s one of the very few characters who I’m almost 100% positive did well on the ballot and it also helps that Microsoft seems surprisingly open about working with Nintendo.
3. Steve - Yes, I’m putting two Microsoft characters on here.
3. Elma - The complete absence of anything X related in Ultimate should raise a few flags.
5. Bandanna Dee - One of the most popular first party characters left who hasn’t been deconfirmed.
 

StormC

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Season 2
Chance: 10%. I doubt Nintendo is going to put out character DLC that approaches the cost of the game itself, and Sakurai will have been working on Smash more-or-less nonstop for eight years once the final DLC releases in February 2020. He's done. These are the last five Smash characters for the forseeable future, and people getting their hopes up for a season 2 are asking to be disappointed. I'll give it a slight chance, but very slight.

Want: 95%. Always up for more, although again, the idea of having potentially 60 dollars worth of DLC doesn't quite sit well with me, so I took 5% off.

Abstain from DLC predictions.
 

SupriceSupplies

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Season 2:
Chance: 1%
Want: 100%
Any extra chance for my Bandana boy to get in is a plus in my book. That being said, with how they worded it ("It'll take a bit over a year to release ALL DLC" or something among those lines.) makes me believe these five sets of DLC are all we're going to get. As for who, recent announcements have left me unsure, but I'll list characters who I think are serious contenders:

Bandana Waddle Dee: I know that the dev team doesn't really look at filling quotas, but Kirby is the only major franchise (Mario, DK, Zelda, Metroid, Kirby, Pokémon, Fire Emblem, Animal Crossing (aside for maybe Xenoblade if you count that)) to not recieve anything in terms of characters. Every other series from the original 8 (barring Yoshi I guess) either got a character cut from Melee or Brawl or a new character entirely. So I wonder if Nintendo argued for throwing the Kirby fanbase a bone. Of course I'm just pulling that from my arse, and I'm just heavily biased, but with plenty of moveset potential, relevance, and popularity, I'm just surprised he didn't make the cut for the base roster.
Honorable mention: Prince Fluff. Not nearly as likely, but Extra Epic Yarn is releasing next year.

Elma: I'm of the opinion that Rex's Mii costume is most likely a consolation prize. Leaving Elma as the more likely Xenoblade candidate. As others have stated, the lack of X content so far is a bit suspicious, so we may or may not see Elma come up as part of one of the 5 DLC sets.

Fjorm: I'm actually not too sure of this one. Sakurai already hesitated with Corrin thanks to the amount of FE characters already in 4, and only added them thanks to moveset potential. I have to wonder, is that going to happen again? I believe the possibility of a FE3H character is unlikely for the lack of standout abilities. (Edelgard has an axe, sure, but it's not in the same level as shapeshifting.) I wonder if Fjorm's lance and ice powers will be enough.

King Boo: Luigi's Mansion 3 is releasing next year, enough said.

Dixie Kong: ...I actually don't have any grounds for her. Tropical Freeze got a rerelease, I guess? And she has moveset potential, but I'm hesitant to say whether she would be a priority as admittedly, the DK series hasn't been too active the last decade aside for Returns and Tropical Freeze's (re)releases.

Lycanroc/Gen 8 Pokémon: Of this one I'm even less sure than Dixie. Lycanroc, to my knowledge, has been the Lucario of generation 7. And with plenty of unique abilities to offer, I have to wonder why Sakurai chose Incineroar over him. Maybe they're planning to use Gen 7's poster boy for DLC? That would bring in cash. Same for a gen 8 Pokémon.

Capcom:
Monster Hunter: Rathalos is already in, might as well go all the way.
Phoenix Wright: Plenty of moveset potential and a history with Nintendo to go along with it, I think he's one of the frontrunners for a Capcom character.

Konami:
....No one comes to mind.

SEGA:
Jack Frost/Joker: Shin Megami Tensei seems like the next obvious choice. With Persona Q2 releasing extremely soon, I can see a character from this series coming in.

Bandai Namco:
Lloyd Irving: If I recall, Sakurai has talked about him before and that he'd be his choice for a Tales of character. Whether or not it happens remains to be seen.
Heihachi: Was considered for 4 but it was difficult to implement his moves. If he could make Ridley work, then the possibility of Heihachi should not be overlooked.

Square Enix:
Dragon Quest Character: It's... kind of a big deal. If Nintendo wanted another Square character, I think this would be the most logical one.
Lara Croft: Just a gut feeling.

Others:
Rayman: Ubisoft has been handling Nintendo IP's as of late, and Kingdom Battle has been a pretty big success. With Rabbid spirits confirmed to be present in the game, I consider Rayman the most likely character period.
Steve: I hate leaks. But if there isn't a Minecraft spirit in the base game, he's a lock for DLC.

But if I had to pick five, my choices would be as follows in no particular order:
-Bandana Waddle Dee (Nintendo)
-Elma (Nintendo)
-Rayman (Ubisoft)
-Steve (Microsoft)
-Slime (Square Enix)
 

Ninjaed

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For now, I'd say these are highly likely:
- Monster hunter (Monster Hunter)
- Dovahkiin (Skyrim)
- Heihachi (Tekken) or Lloyd (Tales of)

Then 3 personal wishes:
- Chocobo (Final Fantasy)
- Amaterasu (Okami)
- Eggman (Sonic)

And possible contenders:
- Slime or Erdrick (Dragon Quest)
- Sora (Kingdom Hearts)
- 2B (NieR:Automata)
- Tails (Sonic)

That's a wrap, 10 characters.
 
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DLC season 2 chances: 8%
DLC season 2 want: 92.5%

I give this a low chance score because there's simply no evidence for more DLC beyond what has been announced by Nintendo. The expectation of more DLCs might come from the fact we might think of Smash Ultimate as a game-as-a-service taking advantage of the expected long lifetime of the Nintendo Switch. But again, there doesn't seem to be any evidence of that, and I don't expect Nintendo to overmilk the game. Yeah, there's great potential for more Smash content, but this could be said for pretty much any game with DLC. The only thing Smash has over other games is that it might give a fairer representation to the recent Switch era, which by the way would mean mostly promotional DLC.
Do I expect it? No, as I explained. Would I love it? Heck yes! I don't think I would mind the promotional content too much as it would be an opportunity to give a broader representation to content of a very succesful system with many potentially great games to come, and it would also naturally increase the chances of seing playable characters I'm interested in (since I wouldn't expect all choices to be promotion for recent games anyway). The reason why this score is not 100% is because I'd like Sakurai to take a break too for his amazing work (he deserves it) and because an overmilked Smash game is not the only thing I want for the Nintendo Switch.

And for my predictions, well, don't expect a list of specific characters from me. It was said that it was Nintendo who chose the characters this time, which honestly asks more questions than it gives answers. Who precisely at Nintendo chose the characters? Miyamoto and his colleagues? Business people? The interests of these people might vary considering of who it is, for example if business people chose the characters then we might expect mostly Nintendo-owned characters and no more than two third-parties because they might be interested in getting all the benefits from selling DLCs rather than sharing it with other companies.

At this point I'd say the only character who seems more likely than not might be Steve because of Vergeben's excellent track record when it comes to this game and the fact he makes so much sense when you think about it (one of the most succesful games period ant it came to Nintendo consoles). To be fair I expected mostly third-party characters at first but with Nintendo people choosing characters this time I'm now mostly expecting Nintendo characters, and if that's true I might believe Bandana Dee has a more than decent shot due to being arguably the one character in the most advantageous position when it comes to multiple factors (popularity, especially in Japan, but more than decent in the West too; star power as a major new face of his home series; easy to acquire the rights of — he's co-owned by HAL but seems to be barely is an obstacle to his inclusion). Also there's no stage from modern Kirby games and including the most recent Kirby All-Star along with one seems like a very logical choice.

I wonder if we will see Spirits promoted from equippable bonuses to playable characters; they're this game's trophies so the default assuption should be that they don't deconfirm characters for DLC, but we've seen that Spirits that represent playable characters in their default appearance (not WFT yoga poses, no alter egos, just the plain character) are here just to look nice if we generalize Daisy's fighter Spirit, which a priori doesn't sound good for equippable Spirit promotion. I want to see if Piranha Plant has an equippable Spirit in the base game, which would discard the "Equippable Spirits deconfirm characters" assuption, but if it doesn't I think we might have a reason to be worried.

And since I talked a bit about it in the first paragraph... what about promotion characters to represent Switch games more recent than Smash Ultimate? Rex being seemingly denied a place in the playable roster due to being too recent seems hardly compatible with this idea. Or maybe he wasn't one of the characters chosen by Nintendo to become playable through DLC? Or maybe it was Nintendo and not Sakurai who chose not only the DLC roster but also the newcomers for the base game? The later hypothesis seems to be the most incompatible with the idea of promotional recent Switch characters, because it would strongly suggest that the DLC characters chosen by Nintendo were supposed to be in the base game but didn't get in bue to being too late.

Anyway, while I'm highly curious as to what the DLC characters are gonna be, the roster feels huge and amazing already and I'm looking forward playing it more than speculating DLC characters. And I expect a news drought of at least five months from now on when it comes to DLC characters anyway.

Edit: typo fix.
 
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DaUsername

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Season 2
Chance: 10%
Considering Sakurai's "I need a break" comment, this is probably all we'll get. Season 2 could still happen if the DLC does well enough, but even then it's not a guarantee.
Want: 90%
More characters are always nice. Unless they end up being terrible like what season 1 will probably be.

DLC Predictions
I can see two possibilities here, The Worst Timeline (in which Vergeben continues to be right) or The Best Timeline (in which Vergeben gets Gematsu'd), so I'm gonna come up with rosters for both of those.

The Worst Timeline
-Steve
-Katalina
-Square Enix character (Not Geno or Sora)
-Fire Emblem Three Houses character
-Gen 8 Pokémon

The Best Timeline
-Banjo
-Rayman
-Geno or Sora
-Bandana Dee
-Dixie Kong

Other possible characters are Elma, Lloyd, Crash, Phoenix Wright, a Monster Hunter character, and probably some others I'm not thinking of.
 
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Season 2:

Chance - 5%

I don't want to get my hopes up, Sakurai needs a break.

Want - 95%

Of course I want more characters, stages and music! But then again I really do think Sakurai deserves a break.

DLC Predictions:

I am still quite unsure about all this tbh, I don't know what Nintendo's approach will be but here is what I am thinking right now:

Sora, Banjo-Kazooie, Bandana Waddle Dee, Rex and Pyra / Elma, A Zelda character but unsure on who (Impa?)

Other possibilities: Geno, Steve, Rayman, Heihachi, Lloyd, Monster Hunter, Katalina, Gen 8 Pokemon, FE: Three Houses character.
 

Ninjaed

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Considering Sakurai's "I need a break" comment, this is probably all we'll get. Season 2 could still happen if the DLC does well enough, but even then it's not a guarantee.
I don't know, I took it more as a "we're really giving it our all to deliver the best game experience we can for all of you."
Though Sm4sh didn't have a 2nd wave of DLCs either. Then again, Ultimate has probably been developed with longetivity in mind so a 2nd wave is not necessarily out of the question.
 

PK-remling Fire

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Season 2:
Chance: 10%
Season 2 DLC will likely hinge on both the longevity of the Switch and how much revenue the first wave of DLC makes. Either way, I don't see it happeneing if it isn't worth the cost.
Want: 95%
No matter how you slice it, more characters are good, unless they're outright broken.

DLC Predictions:
The template of DLC will likely be:
1. Microsoft Rep
2. Square Rep
3. First Party Rep
4. Advertisement for Upcoming Game
5. Wildcard Character

With this template, here are the characters who will probably make it in:
1. Steve
2. Noctis or Sora
3 and 4 could have any mix of these characters: Bandanna Dee, Melmetal, Zeraora, a character from Town, or yet another Fire Emblem character
5. Katalina

Though my personal wish-list would be:
1. Banjo & Kazooie
2. Geno or Sora
3. Bandanna Dee
4. Melmetal
5. Jack Frost or Demi-Fiend
 

Crash4Smash

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I say we're getting a Pokémon Rep... unfortunately, Gardevior's popularity as a fighter leaves one logical choice, I say
Gardevior 40% chance of making it in.
Crash Bandicoot 30% chance of making it in.
Banjo-Kazooie 21% chance of making it in, given that these aren't based on the Ballots.
another ARMS Rep, sure I can see Ribbon Girl or Ninjara or Minmin becoming available as DLC chances for another ARMS rep being considered 65% chances of a decision being made, 40%
Sora has zero chance of getting in, sure he's popular, but Disney has a PS4 exclusive contract right now.
Geno has a higher chance than Sora at 20%
Dixie Kong, however... has about an 80% chance of being DLC given Nintendo would want to promote Tropical Freeze for the Nintendo Switch and the character is in high demand. Dixie Kong has a slight chance of using the Rare Logo on her hat if Banjo Kazooie gets in as DLC, or simply using the SNES 4-color logo on an alternate outfit, if Banjo Kazooie doesn't get in.

Steeve has a higher chance of getting in if Minecraft fans decide to pull their heads out of their butts and call him "Minecraft Player" as the name "Steeve" is confusing and doesn't translate well into the Japanese market. Especially since the Minecraft Player's name translation is not quite solidified in the Japanese fanbase, and Japanese players pretty much ignore Minecraft character names as much as the American audience ignorantly names Black, Lucas, Brendan and Gold "Ash"
 

KHJason95

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Here's my picks for Season 2 DLC if it happens, which is a 95% want.

Noctis Lucis Caelum (FINAL FANTASY XV) & Jin Kazama (TEKKEN) are 100% wants
Impa (Hyrule Warriors) is a 60% want
Blaze the Cat (Sonic Rush) is an 85% want
Mach Rider (Mach Rider) is a 25% want
 
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UtopianPoyzin

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I originally posted my picks in the news thread for Sakurai's tweets about the DLC finalized, but I figured it would very much be worth it to post here as well.

No matter what happens, I am really hoping we can get at least 3 new unrepresented franchises into the fighter roster in some way, shape, or form. I don't have a complete preference on who, but I have some ideas.

For one, I figured I would mention first parties. I hate to break it to everybody, but I am pretty confident that being a spirit at this point practically dec-es the character from becoming DLC. At Exhibit A, we have Bandana Dee. I am highly confident that Bandana Dee will finally be included as a DLC character with him being both highly requested AND not appearing as a spirit from what we have seen. Unless we see a screenshot of him as a Spirit, I think he's a good bet. At this point, I also would have included a Rhythm Heaven rep, but because Chorus Kids AND Karate Joe being showed off as spirits, I think that department is no longer safe for viewing. Instead, I personally would love to see either a new Legend of Zelda rep, or a new Xenoblade Chronicles rep (but not both). If this were to be true, I would predict Impa and Elma respectively. Either of those characters + Bandana Dee are my personal choices to take the two 1st party selections.

From here we move on to the unrepresented series/third party choices. Now, a couple of these choices that I originally had, such as Crono from Chrono Trigger, Saki Amamiya from Sin & Punishment, Amaterasu from Okami, and Neku Sakuraba from The World Ends With You, were once very high on my list back during the base game, but began to quickly die down after E3 of this year. I figured I would mention those characters because they have very active fanbases, and I used to wholeheartedly support them, but I realized that the relevancy was not there from Nintendo consumers, and if we are talking DLC speculation, would not get the people talking or have the majority Smash Ultimate buyers excited to purchase them (even if they would all be incredible fighters in the roster and would fit into the roster very well.)

The final names that I still think very much deserve a spot are Rayman from the Rayman series, Banjo & Kazooie from the Banjo Kazooie series, and Crash Bandicoot from the Crash Bandicoot series, with runner-ups going to Spyro, Professor Layton, and Heihachi Mishima. Rayman, Banjo, and Crash are my personal final three picks for DLC and who I want the most, because these are some of the biggest/most wanted characters who have yet to be added, and these would be the types of characters that would generate the most hype, and are rather recognizable names to say the least. Out of these though, I think Banjo is the least likely, but I included him due to the amount of support he has for his inclusion.

My only problem with my DLC list (and it's a picky thing) is that all but one of the characters are very... cartoony. If we recall Sm4sh's DLC, we had Lucas, Ryu, Roy, Cloud, Corrin, and Bayonetta ALL being very much human(oid), which is 6/7. The reason I mention this is that the picks I put forth really aren't, except for Impa/Elma, making 1/5 being human(oid). I just have a feeling that in the DLC, we will be more likely to get human(oid) characters than cartoony ones. I am at an inner conflict as I'm writing this, because I still really want to see Lloyd Irving be more than just a fighter in Super Smash Flash or a Mii Costume. Same goes to Heihachi Mishima. Professor Layton and Phoenix Wright would be very cool to see in Smash, and these are the characters that I feel Nintendo is looking for. Dragon Quest definitely needs a rep, but would Erdrick work? It could also be Slime, but that would go against the human(oid) argument. As long as it doesn't replace Elma/Impa.

So basically, I'm indecisive.
I realized that I really wanted to see a Tekken rep and a Dragon Quest rep after I made the list, but then I wanted to see Banjo and Crash be a part of it again. I kept flip-flopping, but this was the way that the coin landed when I posted. I'm going to stick with it for consistency. However, with Impa being revealed as a Spirit in her Ocarina of Time form, I feel like it is safer to put my bets on Elma rather than Impa. Not that I don't want to see Impa though (especially in her Skyward Sword design, flawless), it's just that I used to have hope for the spirits, but Sakurai showed us the spirits he did for a reason. I have been losing my grasp on spirit becoming fighters recently, and the concept of "Fighter Spirits" separate to normal spirits really got me bummed for the theory that Dixie Kong still has a shot. Ah well, there's always next iteration (?). Still am not giving up hope for spirits to become fighters, its just that there's a sliver of it left.
 

Quetzal77

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Season 2: highly likely I think. Even if there's a year break between the end of season 1 and the start of season 2, I think we're early enough in the Switch's lifetime where Nintendo will want to keep supporting it, and knowing Sakurai I could see him agreeing to do a smaller season 2 pack. I believe we'll get 3 fighters in season 2 with maybe some echoes too.

DLC season 1 predictions:

1. Rex and Pyra (Xenoblade)
While I took the costume as deconfirmation at first, I've come around and now see it as a positive sign that Sakurai regrets not having Rex ready for launch and will be prioritizing him for DLC.

2. Edelgard or another Three Houses character (Fire Emblem)
The timing is perfect for this one and the 3 main characters fight with weapons that aren't swords. I'm positive Nintendo suggested this and I don't think Sakurai would pass it up.

3. Noctis (Final Fantasy) or Sora (Kingdom Hearts)
Square Enix was heavily rumoured to have a newcomer joining and I think it's happening. These two are their most iconic current characters, I think. Dragon Quest isn't as popular outside of Japan, which is why I don't think it'll get a fighter, and Geno doesn't seem likely to me.

4/5. A gen 8 Pokemon, a Metroid Prime 4 rep, a Zelda character, or a Dragalia Lost character
I'm not really sure which of these will fill the last two spots, but they're all series with current relevance and/or upcoming games that Nintendo would definitely want to promote through Smash. I would bet on Pokemon and Dragalia Lost, but I really really hope we get a new Zelda character.

Others I think might have a chance are Elma, Rayman, an Atlus rep, or a single surprise AT promotion.
 

TCT~Phantom

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When can we expect to see what the rerate schedule will look like?

Glad you mentioned it.

The rerate schedule would have been up today. But I had one minor snag. Well two. Spirits and Assist Trophies.

I need to hear from you all what they mean for characters. If we were to consider ATs for DLC, the ones I would highlight would be Ashley, Bomberman, Isaac, Lyn, Shovel Knight, and Waluigi. Spirits is less of a big conundrum but thee are some people who murmur about how a spirit deconfirms a character. Mii costumes are a bit weird. Part of this whole sitch is the season 2 debacle. If there is a season 2, I feel Rex would be a lock given his treatment in R1. But otherwise it is a 0.

What I am trying to say is that there are characters that I feel would be important to rate if we decided Spirits were fair game, or even ATs.


Here are the characters I think would be the best place to start for a new fixed schedule. I will not have ATs on here just for sake of arguement.

Dixie
Bandana Dee
Rex
Geno
Melmetal
Edelgard
Rayman
Banjo
Steve
Erdrick
Slime
Sora
Sans
Shantae
Crash Bandicoot
Doomguy
Travis Touchdown
Celica
Lycanroc
Chibi Robo
Ray MK III
Saki
Paper Mario
Captain Toad
Lip
Professor Layton
Phoenix Wright
Jibanyan
Lloyd Irving
Heihatchi
Leon Scott Kennedy


And From the noms list, a few that I felt we should do.

Merric Opossum Opossum
Character Alternate Costume as DLC
Barbara the Bat
Prince (Katamari)
Chorus Kids
Xurkitree
Joker (Persona 5)
Master Chief
2B


But lets talk about spirits and whatnot today, because I feel having that discussion on Spirits, ATs, and potentially mii costumes is healthy.
 
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Merric Opossum Opossum Opossum Opossum
Character Alternate Costume as DLC
Barbara the Bat
Prince (Katamari)
Chorus Kids
Xurkitree
Joker (Persona 5)
Master Chief
2B
Big F for Rhythm Girl we were so close

Anyway, first of all Mii Costumes don't deconfirm in my opinion since we have Link, Falcon and Chrom costumes already. For Spirits I am not entirely sure but since they are the replacement for trophies and Mewtwo and Lucas both had trophies in Smash 4 before DLC I don't think they deconfirm.

Now, the fun one....

Assist Trophies. I think if ATs become fighters it will be in a second wave (if we get one that is) since Nintendo would want to push new fighters for obvious reasons. I don't think it is too out of the blue though, if enough support for certain characters is gathered it could happen and if anyone gets the treatment it is Waluigi or Isaac. I don't know anything about development but it could also be easier to make some of these fighters since they have moves and fully rendered models. That being said, Sakurai does view ATs as representation so I am unsure. It could happen, the only reason we say it doesn't is because it hasn't happened yet but so many 'rules' have been broken at this point that we can't say anything is solid evidence.

The one and ONLY rule is that it has to be a video game character.
 
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Ok, time to talk about deconfirmation machines here.

Spirits: 0% Spirits are a replacement for trophies in this game. Mewtwo and Lucas had trophies in Smash 4, and were later added as DLC. Additionally, King K. Rool, Wii Fit Trainer, and Daisy also all have spirits.

Assist Trophies and Pokeballs: 100% YES! Both have been deconfirmation machines since Brawl. If a character becomes an assist trophy or Pokeball, they will sadly have to wait for the next Smash game.

A big F for the fallen victims here: Ashley Bomberman Isaac Krystal Mimikyu Waluigi Shadow Spring Man Shovel Knight Skull Kid Knuckles Lyn Black Knight Scizor Marshadow Tapu Koko Meowth Bewear. Let me know if I missed any big ones.

Mii Costumes: 70% This one feels mixed. In Smash 4: they were used as a deconfirmation machine, but they also had costumes for fighters already in the game. Mii costumes are a good sign though, for the next smash game. K. Rool, Isabelle, and more had costumes to show that they did well on the ballot. They were later added into the next Smash game. Rex in my eyes sadly got deconfirmed, but who knows what will happen.

Background characters: 95% I don't think they have a chance unless they do the King Dedede method of removing them from the background when they are on the battlefield.

Non video game characters: -∞% Do I seriously need to explain this? Characters like Goku and Shrek are not allowed into Smash Bros because this game is a celebration of Nintendo and video games as a whole. The only way this will ever happen is if Sakurai stops working on Smash, or ends up getting mad and not caring anymore about the game. I think it's best if you completely stop requesting these characters, because they're not happening no matter what.

Xurkitree is on the schedule now. I can rest easy...

Are we starting the new noms list yet?
If so: Reaper (Overwatch) x5

[INSERT POINTLESS DELETED SPOILER HERE]
 
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They are all different tiers of disconfirmation, not all are equal.

Explicit Statement of not being a Fighter: 100%. Unless there's a "psyche!" after then you are donezo. This includes if the VA for your character was not contacted to perform in Super Smash Bros. and are allowed to say "Nope, I didn't do it lol" or something along those lines.

Not a Video Game Character: 101% At this point, the only NVG character who stands a chance is Son Goku, and it's 00.0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001%. And this is with his amazingly large fanbase, and that miniscule percent I gave is if Sakurai suddenly had a change of heart and even allowed 4th Party Assist Trophies. That's my score for him appearing as an Assist Trophy. As a Fighter? Nada. Zilch.

Assist Trophy/Poké Ball/Boss Battle: 99.99% Out of the question. You already have a role intended by the developers, and you already are present on the battlefield and able to do stuff, so they won't bother changing it. I would be saying as much if Arle, Banjo, Paper Mario, and Geno (all in a row) were disconfirmed by Assist Trophy. And if you're an Assist Trophy more than once, it's 200% and a sign that you'll never be playable. Now since this has never officially been stated as a DLC rule, I'm willing to give it 00.01% more than I should, but if and only if the fan outcry was significant enough that unless. :ultwaluigi:, :ultshadow:, :ultskullkid:, :ultspringman:, :ultshovelknight: will never be filled in.

Mii Costume: 90% Disconfirmation. Repeat what I said about Assist Trophies, except since there are Mii Costumes of standard fighters, it's not as potent. Still, you're probably done for if your Mii Costume comes before you do. This is based on King K. Rool's Mii Costume back in Smash 4 [many people were not happy to be, and right now Rex in particular really reminds me of K. Rool in that regard. :ultrex: is unlikely to be filled in.

Spirit: 50% Disconfirmation. Unlike the above two, you're not on the battlefield, so there's more wiggle room. A lot of people like to compare Spirits to Trophies in terms of Disconfirmation power, but A. the promoted trophies were veterans and B. did not serve a purpose besides existence. Spirits do have a purpose, and Fighter Spirits are much more comparable to trophies in that they exist to gawk at and not anything else. Gooey, Shantae, I'm not so sure have a chance, but if nothing else they're likelier than Spring-Man. :ultshantae: is not something I'd bet on, but I would consider it possible.

Background Element: It depends. If you just show up in the background, it's 50%. You're not really on the battlefield. If you have a purpose, it's 99.99% and you're now Waluigi tier.

Only "part of a Final Smash" I'd say is dead. Paula, Tom Nook, Dunban, and Proto Man rejoice: Chrom plays double duty. While I don't think you should ever give up hope that maybe it's possible, I'm acting with the assumption that Wave 1 is the one and only set of DLC Fighters we ever get. If, by some ridiculous miracle, we do get a DLC Season 2 and onwards, then everything besides Assist Tier is fair game.

For new noms: Rerate Arle Nadja x 5 if allowed. If Lip and Layton are there, I don't see why Arle shouldn't be now that we've reached the endgame. Disregard if not doing new noms.
 
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All of them are deconfirmations imo, even spirits. The DLC lineup has already been decided. I do not see the point of making spirits, assists and costumes out of characters who are already planned to get in as a fighter later. Also in the direct it was stated that ''spirits are a way to enjoy characters other than fighters'' so that settles it for me.
 

aarchak

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Disconfirmations

VA Disconfirmations: 80%
As for right now, I believe this only applies to Pyra, where Skye Bennett said she wasn't contacted for Smash. Either way, if your character's VA wasn't contacted, their chances just shot down a bunch. However, they could still be added, just with a different VA, which is less likely.
Rex: 100% or 30% based on when DLC characters where chosen
This is the only case where Sakurai himself said he couldn't do Rex due to release time. Therefore, if the DLC characters were chosen earlier, like in 2016 or early 2017, they still wouldn't have picked Rex. However, if the DLC lineup was decided recently (like this year), Rex is still on the table, just a bit less likely.
AT/Pokeball/Boss: 99%
These guys have almost no chance of making it in now. I'm sorry, Isaac. I'm deeply sorry, but this is a specific, irreplaceable role in the game, and historically, nobody got the promotion treatment until the next game.
Mii Costume (other than Rex): 0%
With many current fighters as mii costumes, this doesn't disconfirm anybody on its own. You can have a mii costume and still make it as a fighter.
Spirit: 20%
Eh, their chances have been hurt, but they're not completely out of the running yet. Looking at the Mewtwo and Lucas trophies in Smash 4, this seems to be the case.
Background: 30% replaceable 100% irreplaceable
This is basically the difference between Toon Link on Spirit Train and Pauline on New Donk City. If your role cannot be replaced with someone else, your chances are done.
 

Sari

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Chances of each of the following deconfirming characters:

Spirit: 55%
We've seen spirits for the regular versions of Daisy and WFT who are already playable so we know fighters can be spirits. However, I'm still unsure if spirits can eventually be fighters. One thing I will say though is that alternate versions of a character (child Celica/Alm, bus getup Kapp'n, rock Mario, etc.) shouldn't deconfirm them as they can be compared to alternate trophies like spring Mario in SSB4 or hooded TP Zelda trophy from Brawl. If the most iconic version of a character (the one you'd expect them to look as when playable) is used for their spirit variant then they may be in trouble. For the purpose of the later ratings I'll just assume spirits don't deconfirm characters.

Assist trophies/Pokeballs: 95%
We have yet to see a character be both an assist trophy and a playable character in the same game. If Sakurai wanted to make them a fighter he would not have gone out of the way to incorporate their moves as a support fighter. Only reason I can see an assist trophy being playable is if there was a giant amount of fan outcry for one.

Mii costume: 85%
I feel that mii costumes are basically their way of saying "sorry they can't be playable, here's an alternate method to use them in battle!" Sakurai basically said that when he showed off the Rex costume. Like AT's we have yet to see a mii costume character be promoted to playable status within the same game.
 

TCT~Phantom

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(Also I think you missed Katalina for the new schedule considering TurdBen is talking about Slime and Steve)
Given that Vergeben has not leaked her himself, I was hesitant on having her up there. He is just stating that someone else heard about her, not his sources. I am willing to add her though.

Furthermore, this will not be really calculated for scores. Give them if you want, this day is explicitly to set up the fixed schedule. Feel free to suggest characters if you wish to.
 
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Not a video game character: I would be surprised if they're even thought about for a single minute.

Assist trophies/Pokeballs: DOA for the first wave of DLC. Sorry, maybe next wave.

Spirits: 25%. It's been established that they outright replace trophies, and that we've seen spirits of fighters, including Daisy. Also, as mentioned, Lucas and Mewtwo were trophies at 4, so there still is room for promotion. Also noting that Geno is not yet confirmed as a Spirit, only appears as an icon so far.

Mii costume: 50/50 for returning costumes, 80% if new. Many of them were shown right off the bat in the last direct because there's possibly no hope; this is possibly as far as they can get. We did have the return of Chrom's Mii Swordsman costume although that can be chalked up something decided on prior to the Echo treatment. And I think I've heard that all costumes from 4 will make their return, thus 50/50.
 
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CaptainAmerica

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I'd also include Byleth with Edelgard - she's shaping up to be the Azura to Byleth's Corrin, so it may be good to consider both of them. Also I'll always suggest Dragonborn and Vault Boy as other potential Bethesda characters - Vault Boy's day was a while ago, and Dovahkiin did get overshadowed since his day was the first day of the Grinch.

About Disconfirms:

Honestly, the DLC roster has been decided too soon after before release, so I'd expect that any role in the game is a disconfirm for Season Pass 1. If there were a Season 2, I think everyone's fair game (unlikely since we haven't seen assists/bosses get promoted in the same game, but possible), but the way they gave us a Rex costume already and called it a consolation and talked about the DLC being already fully planned make me think that they'd still be able to remove the Spirits for anyone who's going to be coming. If they haven't, it wasn't meant to be.

Now, if we get a season 2, or even if they start throwing out extra-pack characters or exchoes, then spirits are definitely in the running, and I'd even say that just because an assist hasn't been promoted yet isn't a rule. But for this (what we know as the only) season...RIP Tails.
 

Aetheri

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Considering the DLC lineup has already been decided...I'm looking at Assist Trophies, Spirits, and all current Mii Costumes (including Rex) as deconfirmations for DLC.

The fact that there's a distinction bewteen Spirits and unequippable Fighter Spirits is a pretty big red flag to me. So sorry Geno, Dixie, Shantae, Tails, etc fans I don't see these characters happening for DLC...and we've all been burned before by AT's so I don't see them happening.

I'm also thinking, sonce Sakurai has the final word on Nintendo's choices, he may decline any characters they choose who are already in these roles.
 

Cabbagehead

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Spirits: 0% Disconfirmed

Spirits are essentially the Trophies and Stickers of this game. While it might not make complete sense from a story perspective to have both a Spirit and a playable fighter of the same character, that's the hand we've been dealt (we've seen Daisy as a Spirit, I'm pretty certain).

So yes, Spirits can happen as DLC. If they can't, then the only DLC we're getting is a slew of third-parties who have absolutely nothing to do with the base game, because any significant Nintendo character you can think of is almost guaranteed to be a Spirit.

Mii Costumes: 50% Disconfirmed

Considering Mii Costumes are exactly what they sound like (a Halloween-tier costume your Mii can wear), one would think that this would be the least effective at disconfirming a character. However, they seem to have been created as a consolation prize for fans of obscure characters/characters who barely missed playability for whatever reason. So far, we haven't seen the promotion of new Mii Costume characters as DLC within the same game, but both Mii Costumes and DLC are still new concepts to Smash. Not to mention, veteran fighters get Mii Costumes all the time, so it wouldn't be that weird for a promotion to take place (footage from the November Direct showed a Captain Falcon costume that I'm almost certain wasn't a thing in Smash 4, so they're still making new veteran costumes).

Assist Trophies: 80% Disconfirmed

Everything in my little heart begs and pleads to Sakurai to put AT'd characters in the DLC running. But the closest thing to a precedent is Chrom both being a playable character and making a cameo in Robin's Final Smash. While it isn't quite the same, it is certainly a glimmer of hope, or at least an eyebrow-raiser.

On the off chance Nintendo decides to expand upon Smash's DLC and create another Wave of it, then they'll have to start doing one of two things:

- Continue giving money to third-party companies in order to make their characters playable fighters.

- Start tapping into the Assist Trophy lineup and making bank on all those awesome characters they keep screwing over.

However, as far as Wave 1 goes, I've given up hope on a playable Ashley Assist Trophy character. And if DLC doesn't move beyond those initial five characters, then that's that.

I do have my hang-ups about completely giving up on AT DLC, however. After all, Assist Trophies were partially created to answer the question "What about all the characters who didn't make the cut?" Well, now we live in an era of DLC, and DLC answers that same question in a much more satisfactory manner. Perhaps Sakurai, wanting to make a full game without DLC in mind, kept certain, lower-priority characters as Assist Trophies, and then Nintendo requested some of them be made playable for DLC. Who knows.

Of course, I'm not blind to the alternative: Sakurai wrote off a bunch of cool characters as summons, under the impression that we'd be happy with it, and then called it a day. Unlike the above hypothetical, there is an actual precedent for this.

Tl;dr - Spirit characters are undoubtedly still in the running, Mii Costumes are still up in the air, but seem pretty harmless to promote, and Assist Trophies have no precedent on which to garner hope, but on the flipside, DLC is a better, alternative solution to a problem Assist Trophies tried to fix back in the Brawl days, so who knows.
 

Cosmic77

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Assist Trophy/Pokeball: 95%

The fact that Sakurai took the time to develop the character and give them special animations and attacks tells me there's no plans for said character to be included in the future.

Mii Costume: 75%

Not a direct disconfirmation I suppose, but if we get a Mii costume as DLC, I'd say that character's chances are basically shot. No way Sakurai would waste time creating a costume for a character who's already planned.

Spirit: 5%

I don't think this is a disconfirmation at all, and here's why. If you look at this by the base game, certain characters missing would cause suspicion. For example, if Paper Mario was missing, but other PM characters were present, wouldn't that give it away? If we got SMRPG characters, and everyone but Geno was present, wouldn't that stick out?

Unless all five DLC characters are either from a game that came out too late to have it's characters as Spirits or from a franchise not already included in Smash in any capacity, I don't see why this should be considered a disconfirmation. Spirits really don't take that long to make; they're even easier to implement than trophies.
 
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DaUsername

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ATs: Yes, I don't really see them putting in the effort to make a character an AT just to change their mind and make them playable.
Mii costumes: Probably, while we've seen Mii costumes for already playable characters, we haven't seen the reverse happen.
Spirits: Probably not, Mewtwo was a trophy in Sm4sh before being DLC so I could see a similar situation happening here. Unless all the DLCs end up being unrepresented 3rd parties or characters from games that haven't released yet.
 

Ze Diglett

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Spirits: 0%
Simply put, they're this game's Stickers. If Trophies didn't deconfirm Mewtwo and Lucas for Smash 4, a glorified JPEG won't deconfirm anybody either.

Mii Costumes: 10%
Eh... nah. We have Mii Costumes for plenty of playable characters already, most notably Chrom, whose costume was ported over from Smash 4 despite him being promoted to playable this game. (K. Rool's also might still exist, for all we know.) The only one who I think is actually deconfirmed by a Mii Costume is Rex, and even that's more due to the circumstances surrounding his exclusion than the Mii Costume itself.

ATs: 99%
Yeah, sorry, but I just don't see them taking out ATs to sell them again as fighters. Even ignoring that it's borderline illegal to remove content from a game to resell it later down the line, ATs have been straight-up deconfirmers since Brawl, and I don't see that changing any time soon, not even for the *ahem* vocal reaction to Waluigi's deconfirmation. The closest thing we have to a precedent against this sort of thing is Chrom being in Robin's FS despite being playable, and while weird, it doesn't really prove much considering we've been able to pit four Marios against each other since the 64 days, so that's most likely not the issue at this point.
 
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I don’t think anything theoretically disconfirms characters from DLC. Spirits, they can probably have duplicates. Mii costumes don’t disconfirm characters, as we’ve seen with Chrom. Background cameos and stage hazards, as seen with Toon Link and Donkey Kong, are alright. A presence in an attack? Chrom. The only thing we haven’t had is an Assist Trophy also be playable in the same game. I see no reason they can’t be playable.

Now whether they will, that’s a different question. Sakurai puts you in any capacity, that’s the capacity he sees you in. It can be hard to change a man’s mind. (Though not impossible, as seen with Mewtwo and Lucas)

On the other hand, the dude doesn’t think of DLC while working on base, and he might certainly have a different viewpoint by the time he gets to DLC. Particularly when it comes to cut content.

Conclusion: nothing keeps a character out of being DLC

... generally speaking

For the case of Ultimate DLC, I don’t see any character getting promoted.

Nintendo’s calling the shots, and I don’t see them promoting anyone. I feel like DLC will be all third parties, because those are what they know will sell. I’m not seeing any first party characters getting in until a hypothetical season two (and I don’t think season two will happen). IF season two happens, I could see characters getting promoted only if there was a huge outcry from fans - basically, Waluigi, Ashley or Isaac, the loudest fanbases for each disconfirmation massacre.

TCT~Phantom TCT~Phantom Should I start counting nominations?
 

Icedragonadam

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Assist Trophies: 90%. I think it's pretty clear that being AT means the character can't be playable as DLC. Considering that making ATs also takes time and thus making them playable as DLC makes making them AT in the first place pointless.

Mii Costumes: 5%. Considering that all mii costumes might return from the previous game, I don't think this matters. Of course if we're talking about new Mii Costimes though.

Spirits: 50%. Mainly because of the fact that Fighter Spirits are reusing artwork from the character's appearance in one of the games, like the case with Daisy's Fighter Spirit. It doesn't bode IMO, but it can go either way.
 

Nemuresu

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Given that Vergeben has not leaked her himself, I was hesitant on having her up there. He is just stating that someone else heard about her, not his sources. I am willing to add her though.

Furthermore, this will not be really calculated for scores. Give them if you want, this day is explicitly to set up the fixed schedule. Feel free to suggest characters if you wish to.
Keep in mind that Vergeben trusts Hitagi and does believe he has legit info. Not to mention, that guy leaked Female Skullomania and Miss X in SNK Heroines. Still, if you think he isn't reliable enough, then fine.

As for rates:
Spirits: 40%-They are meant to be a replacement for trophies with a brand new gimmick. Trophies didn't prevent Mewtwo and Lucas from becoming DLC in the last game, so there's that.
Mii Costumes: 90%-For the new ones only. None of the Mii costumes released in the last game became DLC characters, and I'm sure none of the new announced ones (Ray, Chibi-Robo, Lip, etc.) are gonna become DLC. Now, for the old costumes like Heihachi, Lloyd, Geno and Gil, I'm confident they still have a chance as characters, since they are the only costumes that didn't become ATs or characters, I'll give those a 50% disconfirmation.
Assist Trophies/Poké Balls: 100%-Considering how ATs can be KO'd and how no Poké Ball pokémon has become a character later on, there's no reason to believe they stand a chance.
 
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NineS

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I know you're reading this. Vote 2B.
And From the noms list, a few that I felt we should do.

Merric Opossum Opossum
Character Alternate Costume as DLC
Barbara the Bat
Prince (Katamari)
Chorus Kids
Xurkitree
Joker (Persona 5)
Master Chief
2B


But lets talk about spirits and whatnot today, because I feel having that discussion on Spirits, ATs, and potentially mii costumes is healthy.
You had me at 2B.
This is what I'm on Smashboards for.

Please @ me when you do 2B. Or tell me when it'll happen if possible so I may be here on time.
I'm not very well informed on how Rate their Chances works....
But, seeing as I'm already here, I might as well contribute.

Spirits: 10% Deconfirmation. As many stated before, in the last game, trophies of certain characters made it in as DLC. Many state that it is because they're veterans, but the truth is, we only have evidence that it is possible for trophies of characters to become fighters as DLC, not that only certain can. Stickers are important to look at as well, as there were multiple stickers of the same character, often times multiple of the player characters. My point is that in all the previous Smash games, being these sorts of "extra" collectible items has never counted as deconfirmation, meaning that the chances for this counting as deconfirmation are extremely low as well. There's a possibility, yes, but not a likely one.

Mii Costumes: 50% Deconfirmation. This, I feel, could actually tilt either direction. Having a mii costume shows that Nintendo, or at least Sakurai acknowledges a character and how wanted they are, or that they themselves like the character. Chrom shows that you can have the mii fighter of a character and the character itself in the same game as playable. However, I don't think mii costumes will be DLC characters this time. Unless there's another round of DLC, I do not believe current Mii Costumes will be in the Fighter's Pass.

Assist Trophies: 99.99% Deconfirmation. I didn't put 100% because truthfully, there is a chance that they can become fighters. Albeit, an extremely small and unlikely chance. The only reason I didn't make it 100% is because nothing is a lock to me.
 
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Keep in mind that Vergeben trusts Hitagi and does believe he has legit info. Not to mention, that guy leaked Female Skullomania and Miss X in SNK Heroines. Still, if you think he isn't reliable enough, then fine.

As for rates:
Spirits: 40%-They are meant to be a replacement for trophies with a brand new gimmick. Trophies didn't prevent Mewtwo and Lucas from becoming DLC in the last game, so there's that.
Mii Costumes: 90%-For the new ones only. None of the Mii costumes released in the last game became DLC characters, and I'm sure none of the new announced ones (Ray, Chibi-Robo, Lip, etc.) are gonna become DLC. Now, for the old costumes like Heihachi, Lloyd, Geno and Gil, I'm confident they still have a chance as characters, since they are the only costumes that didn't become ATs or characters, I'll give those a 50% disconfirmation.
Assist Trophies/Poké Balls: 100%-Considering how ATs can be KO'd and how no Poké Ball pokémon has become a character later on, there's no reason to believe they stand a chance.
How does Gil have a better chance than Lip, Chibi Robo or Ray?
 

Nemuresu

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How does Gil have a better chance than Lip, Chibi Robo or Ray?
Not saying he's a lock, but if you ask me who's more likely between characters that didn't get any status change in the game and characters that got a new one that isn't being a character (barring spirits), I'm gonna go with the former.

There was Charizard.
Oh right. But that still happened between games though, not as DLC.
 
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Not saying he's a lock, but if you ask me who's more likely between characters that didn't get any status change in the game and characters that got a new one that isn't being a character (barring spirits), I'm gonna go with the former.


Oh right. But that still happened between games though, not as DLC.
Once again, how does Gil have any chance to get into Smash Bros?

If you’re going to be dogmatic, Gil should serve as proof that the dogma is wrong.
 

Nemuresu

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Once again, how does Gil have any chance to get into Smash Bros?

If you’re going to be dogmatic, Gil should serve as proof that the dogma is wrong.
Dogma ain't wrong until proven as such. I don't think he has a chance either (more so since Nintendo is in charge of the DLC choices), but it'd be a lie if I said it's impossible for him to become playable.
 
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