Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[ShinyRegice]

Rex and Pyra chances: 76% abstain
Sakurai directly commenting about the game, and confirming that he played it, seems to be a good sign, especially in addition to the Rex outfit in Breath of the Wild. While him playing XC2 could simply him profiting from his free time, I suspect the later is limited for him and on video games is better spent on games he wants to represent in a major form in Smash, because it offers a new perspective for him to imagine how to implement content from a video game. Also getting representation in Breath of the Wild is nothing to ignore, although to be fair that's likely due to Monolith's involvement in this game. However, he's pretty recent to the point his game was announced when Smash Switch's development already started, which means there would have been some early discussion between Sakurai and Monolith somewhere in 2016, although with Greninja it's now not without precedent. Considering Monolith's plans for the future and the Wii U's poor performance, it wouldn't surprise me if this discussion led Sakurai to choose an XC2 representative over an XCX one.

Edit: looking at some of the other comments it seems that it's the specific duo we're rating that matters, so even though I still believe a XC2 character has a good chance of happening I'm actually going to abstain this time. I feel like I could give a more informed score if I knew more about the game's mechanics.

Rex and Pyra want: abstain
I don't know enough about XC2 to form an opinion and I'm mostly indifferent for now. I wasn't sure I was eventually going to get a Switch, but the more time passes by the more I'm tempted, especially after the announcement of Smash, and if this year's Nintendo E3 is good then it will probably convince me to actually get one. I could imagine getting XC2 considering I loved Xenoblade, but I have some personal reservations. For the art style, I'm not a huge fan of the exaggeratedly neotenic appearance of characters, I prefered that of previous games where characters are a bit closer to realistic proportions, and for what I've understood this game seems to have a large playable cast with plenty of "blades" (what Pyra is) to collect, while I personally prefered the small cast of XC compared to XCX's large one for both gameplay and storytelling reasons. Oh, and because I know so little I have absolutely no idea what a moveset could look like

Also since Smash Wii U has massive Xenoblade spoilers with some Mechon trophies (glad I did beat the game before I looked at all these trophies - although to be fair it could have been even worse if some other trophies were put instead) I suspect Smash Switch will do the same for XC2, so this might work as an incentive for me to try it before this new Smash, if I get past the character art style.

Ivysaur prediction: 11.13%
Squirtle prediction: 12.84%

Nominating:
Concept: veteran character artworks recycled from Smash 3DS/Wii U x5

 

[Fenriraga]

Yikes, I knew the spectrum between want and don't want for these two would be wide, but damn. Anyway...

Chance: 75%
If not the base roster, I feel they'll absolutely be DLC. The game preformed well, Xenoblade has become a mainstay for Nintendo, and Sakurai admitted that Xenoblade 2 is one of his favorite games that he's played in quite some time. It's pretty dang likely we'll be seeing them. The only thing they have going against them is how recent 2 is, but they've made 'new' characters work before.

Want: 100%

I may not have liked 2 as much as 1, but that's like saying I like vanilla ice cream more than chocolate ice cream: It's still DELICIOUS either way. The character designs might be dumb, but the characters THEMSELVES are not (For the most part), and I'd love to see them join Shulk to get some Smashing in. Plus, I feel Rex and Pyra as well as Xenoblade 2's general combat system would lend itself to a very unique character.

Nominate: Geno x5

 

[AlphaSSB]

Rex & Pyra

Chance: 45% - Given the positive reception to Shulk from Xenoblade 1 making it in, and all the support Nintendo has shown for Xenoblade 2, I'd say the chances of getting Rex & Pyra aren't too bad.

Want: 10% - I know nothing of them or their series, but at least they're from a 1st Party series already in Smash.

Nominations: Midna x5

 

[-crump-]

Xenoboy 2 and The Reason I Don’t Watch Anime

Chance: 60%
Betting on another Greninja situation. XC2 had a pretty long development cycle from what I know, and since Shulk was a popular pick last time I could see Sakurai adding the newest protagonists.

Want: 0%
Character design is honestly my only reason for this. Pyra might as well be the poster child of blatant, excessive fanservice, something I’ve always been against. She’s what you’d see on the naughty side of some weeb’s body pillow, and that’s not what I want to see in Smash. Plus when they do add her, and inevitably try to cover her up a bit, we get to deal with the “B-but muh censorship!!” crowd, and that’s never fun.

Rex just looks and sounds like a crappy off-brand Shulk, so that’s all I got on him.

Predictions:
Squirtle: 15.5%
Ivysaur: 10%

Noms:
Hector x2
Codename: STEAM Rep x3

 

[Llort A. Ton]

T Rex (Super Mario Odyssey) & Pyro (Team Fortress 2)

Chance- 60%
Were probably getting a new Xenoblade character, but I think its a 60/40 toss up between them or a Xenoblade X character.

Want-1%
There are very few JRPGs I can get into.
Xenoblade isnt one of them.
I like in Smash Bros 4, but Id be perfectly fine if they just kept him as the lone Xeno rep.

Ivysaur- 8.02%
Squirtle-15.04%

Doomguy X 5

 

[Deleted member]

Rex & Pyra

Chance: 30%
I think the roster was probably finalized back in late 2016, and unless Sakurai had access to concept art of them I don't see them making it in.

Want: Abstain
I haven't any of the Xenoblade games yet, so I have no idea what they can do and that's the thing I care about first and foremost.
I won't deny that they both have trash designs though.

Squirtle prediction: 15.43%
Ivysaur prediction: 22.11%

Noms: Decidueye x5

 

[skylanders fan]

rex and pyra

chance 50% I'm going with the coin toss on this one too

want- 20% not the biggest fan of the characteters

 

[Mario & Sonic Guy]

Rex & Pyra

• Chance: 50%
• Want: 50%
• I think the biggest problem with those two being together would be if 8 sets of them cause 8-player Smash's performance to suffer.

 

[Deleted member]

The salvager king and his fiery Blade

Chance: abstain
I've already stated it in the Rex support thread, but their inclusion is a 50/50 case for me.
It all depends if Sakurai has been aware of Xenoblade 2 in time before having decided of the base roster or not.
There are great chances we'd get XC2 elements such as Assist Trophies and musics however.

Want: 90%
I won't lie, Rex isn't my favorite Xenoblade character.
That doesn't mean I hate him however.
In fact the whole main cast of XC2, and also the one from XC1, are likable. And that's also part of why I'm such a fan of this series.
Not to mention all the possibilities the Blade system from his source game could offer on the table.

Also lol @ people who limit themselves only to their designs for giving them low rates.


Nomination:
CONCEPT: Metroid: Samus Returns stage x5

Prediction:
Squirtle: 14%
Ivysaur: 16%

 

[Rockaphin]

Rex and Pyra:

Chance: 60%

Want: 5%

Predictions:
Squirtle 13%
Ivysaur 13%

Nominations:
Ken Masters Alt Costume for Ryu x5

 

[Smady]

Rex and Pyra Chance: 5%

Their game only came out last year, I don't see Sakurai caring particularly about a game that comes out only a year before Smash Switch. This is the exact window that you'd see used in the next Smash game after this one. I'd give Elma a far higher chance as she was in Xenoblade X, a game that came out right inbetween Smash 4 and Switch. Not that I'm a fan of Elma as she is excessively boring but that would obviously satisfy the majority of fans.

On top of that this particular form of the character is practically impossible. I'd guess it'd be like Wolf Link at best, Rex summoning Pyra for individual moves? Except that's not how this game plays in action. Pyra is out at all times. The two characters together is something you'd see in MUGEN, not designed by Sakurai. Even then I'd give Elma a massive edge over Rex and Pyra both solo. I'll only even give it 5% because Sakurai has a bias for the game.

Not going to bother giving a want as I haven't played their game, I just wanted to point out that everyone is in my opinion over-estimating their chances.

Ivysaur: 8%
Squirtle: 12%
Squirtle gets the slight edge due to bias, I'd rate them a little higher just in case Sakura has an "add back all original movesets" mentality this game.

Eggman x5

 

[Nimbostratus]

Rex & Pyra

Chance- ABSTAIN

I don’t know enough about their game or their dual mechanics to have any independent opinions on their chances. The timing of the game is a question mark, but it seems very possible given the game’s success and Sakurai’s comments. However, I don’t feel like I can put a number to this one without doing more research.

Want- 10%

From what I can tell, there might be some interesting play mechanics, but I don’t have any association with the game, and I don’t care for their design. I’m fine with keeping Shulk and leaving it at that.

Predictions:

Ivysaur- 12%
Squirtle- 11%

Nominations:

Ashley (WarioWare) x3
Banjo-Kazooie x2

 

[Munomario777]

Pyrex (P.S. haven't played their game)

Chance: 65%

Their game released pretty late into the development cycle, so we might not be able to see them make an appearance. Could be a Greninja situation, though, or given the popularity of the game, they could appear as DLC.
​

Want: 60%

The blade / driver mechanic sounds really cool as a moveset gimmick! I quite dislike Rex's design and voice, though. If this were something like, I dunno, Pyra + Mythra instead, this would be something more like 80%.
​

Noms:

Snip & Clip x5​

 

[PushDustIn]

Rex and Pyra

I haven't played Xenoblade 2, and I'm pretty unfamiliar with the pair. @MrNantendo wrote a Dream Smasher article for them awhile back though.

Chance:
50% for the main game.
If not in the main game, I'm going 60% as DLC.

I think Xenoblade as a series has really expanded since Shulk appeared in Smash. Shulk really promoted the series, and I can see Sakurai taking Xenoblade under his promotional wing just like he did with Fire Emblem. Another character from the Xenoblade series isn't that improbable. Whether it's from X or 2 has yet to be seen. So if they aren't in the main game, I think their chances will raise with DLC as they would still be semi-relevant -- especially with DLC being planned until Fall.

We know Sakurai really enjoyed the game, if anything.

Want:
20%
Just like Fire Emblem, I'm not interested in the series as a whole.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Chance 55%

If Shulk returns 75% for representing xenoblade two if not 35%

Want 20%

I'm not a xenoblade player but I will be happy for you guys if they make it.

 

[Aetheri]

Rex and Pyra

Chance: 30%
A lot of people seem to be speaking as if they are shoe-ins, and while the game is rather popular and Sakurai has posted an article on how much he loves the game, the timing is somewhat of a problem I feel...While DLC isn't out of the question, putting them into the base game is a different story since the game is still just a few months old...
Yes it's possible that sakurai got the heads up while the game was being developed, but so far he only really does this with Pokemon characters...

Want: 60%
They could be interesting...So long as we don't just get Rex on his own since that'd feel quite redundant next to Shulk...but personally I want to see Elma in the game...XCX needs some attention as well and I feel it shouldn't just be forgotten...

Squirtle: 15.65%
Ivysaur: 12.32%

Nominations
Zelda Newcomer x5

 

[Wyoming]

Rex and Pyra

Chance - 70%
All signs point to their inclusion: developers working closely with Sakurai, the man himself playing the game, a fun and unique move set that Sakurai can work with, the development times between both games being close, and Xenoblade has grown in popularity since Smash 4.

Want - 60%
Loved the first Xenoblade. Anything that can add content from such an inspired series is a-ok in my book. They are distinguishable and unique enough to be worth a place in the game.

Squirtle prediction: 11.3% chance
Ivysaur prediction: 7.5% chance

Noms: Phoenix Wright x5

 

[ShinyRegice]

Edited my chance score so I'm actually abstaining today. I still believe a XC2 character is likely, but apparently it's really this specific duo that matters, not just Rex in some form, and since I'm not really informed about the game I prefer to not give a rating this time.

Smashoperatingbuddy123 I think you should choose a specific chance rating so a clear rating can be counted for today's final score. Considering your comment I suggest you to take your personal opinion of Shulk's likeliness to return into choosing a specific score for today's rating, like if you think Shulk is likely to return then give a final score closer to 75% and if you think he's in danger of being cut then a score closer to 35%.

 

[colder_than_ice]

Rex and Pyra
Chance: 50% - I actually consider them to be the most likely newcomers. They’re one of the most relevant characters who’ve debuted on a successful in a franchise that Sakurai is a fan of. They also have a lot of potential for a unique move pool. They’re hitting all the checkboxes.
Want: 30% - I was actually very disappointed with Xenoblade 2.

Squirtle prediction: 8%
Ivysaur prediction: 10%

Nominations: New story mode x5

 

[nirvanafan]

Rex & Pyra

Chances: 90%
Xenoblade is on the rise so seeing the latest protagonist make it in makes too much sense.

Want: 90%
Never played Xenoblade but i really want to at some point plus the games seem fun and characters seem cool.

Nomination: Asuka X5

 

[Sid-cada]

Rex and Pyra

Chance - 50% - If Sakurai knew about them early enough, I think they are shoo-ins. That's a big if, though.

Want - 50% - Eh. Not an RPG type of guy, so I won't really care much about their inclusion.

Predictions

Squirtle - 9.23% - The more popular of the two.

Ivysaur - 7.34% - Not likely.,


Nominations

Anna X5

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Edited my chance score so I'm actually abstaining today. I still believe a XC2 character is likely, but apparently it's really this specific duo that matters, not just Rex in some form, and since I'm not really informed about the game I prefer to not give a rating this time.

Smashoperatingbuddy123 I think you should choose a specific chance rating so a clear rating can be counted for today's final score. Considering your comment I suggets you to take your personal opinion of Shulk's likeliness to return into choosing a specific score for today's rating, like if you think Shulk is likely to return then give a final score closer to 75% and if you think he's in danger of being cut then a score closer to 35%.

Fixed made the chance the mean of both numbers

 

[Quetzal77]

Rex and Pyra
Chance: 95%
Sakurai loved the game, so much that I believe he called it the best RPG he's played in years (don't quote me on that). The game would've been in development by the time the roster was being decided, and even if it wasn't, do people really think Sakurai wouldn't add in someone from a game he loved so much just because of some arbitrary roster deadline? I subtracted 5% because while I think the pair is very likely, I could also see a certain other, less complicated pair happening instead...

Want: 99%
I loved the game, loved the cast, and Pyra is my most wanted newcomer. Why not 100% then? Well... see my nominations.

Predictions:
Squirtle: 18%
Ivysaur: 15%

Nominations: Pyra/Mythra (without Rex) x5

 

[slambros]

Nominate: Geno x3, Lyn x2

Lyn has been added to the March schedule, so it'd be in your interest to distribute those nominations elsewhere.


Rex and Pyra

Chance: 35%
A 2nd Xenoblade rep could happen in a different sort of way; this is the likeliest, though.

Want: 50%
I've never played Xenoblade, but these characters seem cool. I think Cenoblade as a franchise should certainly gain a new representative.

Nominations:
Dillon x5

Predictions:
Squirtle - 11.4% Chance
Ivysaur - 13. 1% Chance

 

[Swamp Sensei]

I haven't played Xenoblade 2 and have little connection to Rex and Pyra right now but wow.....

Today is depressing. It's like I stepped into one of the Fire Emblem debates from pre Smash 4.

 

[Jubileus57]

Rex and Pyra:

Chances: 40% I can see it happen, but I cannot say for sure.
Want: 10%. Their design are just... meh. Far too complicated and downright hideous IMO

Nominations: Daisy x5

 

[Nimbostratus]

I haven't played Xenoblade 2 and have little connection to Rex and Pyra right now but wow.....

Today is depressing. It's like I stepped into one of the Fire Emblem debates from pre Smash 4.

Lots of design criticism, but at least there aren’t open arguments at the moment?
And to think, we are just a few days away from the first wave of “Too much FE” posts. Oh boy...

 

[Megaban]

Hmmm.

Chance: 90%
Well, quite likely. One of most likely newcomers actually. Recent, from well received (and epic) game. Can bring a cool mechanic. So yeah, not much to deny here. It's not 100% because you never know with Sakurai.

Want: 57%
Literally on the verge of yes and don't mind. I DO want to see the game represented. Tho I'd prefer Poppi with Tora. But no objections if they are added.

Predictions:
Ivysaur: 5%
Squirtle: 10%

Nominations: Lana x5

 

[Graizen]

Rex and Pyra:
Chances : 50%
Want : 50%

I really became a serious Xenoblade fan with the Wii U version, so a character like Elma would make me very happy. But as we know that the Wii and Switch versions will be the most famous ever, then this pair should make a lot more sense.
The more characters from this series the better, so I want them to.

Nomination :
Agumon X5

 

[RouffWestie]

Rex & Pyra

Chance: 95%

It just makes sense considering Xenoblade 2 is so recent.

Want: 0%

Looks like another typical jrpg character. I'll pass.

Nominations: Arle Nadja ×5

 

[Shyy_Guy595]

People want Pyra and Mythra together why exactly? Fanservice?

Anyways...

Rex and Pyra

Chance: 75%

While they are highly requested and popular, the time of the game actually coming out may be an issue, even if it hasn't before for some franchises.

Want: 10%

Personally not attached but they'd seem to have a neat gimmick.

Predictions:

Ivysaur - 10%

Squirtle - 15%

Nominations:

Midna x3
Ghirahim x2

 

[MacDaddyNook]

Rex and/or Pyra:

Chance: 40%
Their game is new, but that's pretty much all they have going for them. Their series is incredibly niche and this title wasn't exactly a runaway hit. It's no Splatoon.

Want: 0%
I think Shulk is fine by himself as the face of Xenoblade.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Rex and Pyra

Chance: abstain
I don't know anything about Xenochronicles 2 alas.

Only thing I know is Pyra is causing some fuss over in the Smash speculation thread due to her questionable costume and that Tharja's trophy was considered too risque.

Want: 50%
Due to not knowing about them I'm neither for or against their inclusion. If they got in I may find out more and enjoy them however.

Squirtle prediction: 7%
Ivysaur prediction: 9%

Nominations:
Concept: Zelda newcomer x 5

 

[MrMcNuts]

Rex and Pyra

Chance: 60%

Their game is doing decently well from what I've heard and is probably alot more recognizable than Xenoblade Chronicles X. So I'd say they have a good chance.

Want: 50%

I don't want this Smash to have too many sword fighting anime looking characters again but I'm enjoying Xenoblade Chronicles 2 so I'll make an exception for this pair!

 

[BluePikmin11]

In the case of Rex/Pyra, I can definitely see Sakurai considering the idea of XC2 character. I for one feel that there is NO issue of timing for a XC2 character getting in. Sakurai most likely knows all the ins-and-outs of what games Nintendo is developing, considering many things:

1. Melee with Roy, a character whose game did not come out in Japan until 2002 was playable.
2. Melee with Lucas, a character that was originally considered way back in Melee back when MOTHER 3 was also developed for the N64 before it got cancelled in 2000.

Considering that these characters got considered ahead of time even though the franchises' popularity is less than of Mario and Pokemon, I feel it is safe to assume that Sakurai would have likely known of XC2's development (being developed since 2014) and had highly considered adding a character from the sequel regardless, likely having early concepts of Blades to figure out a moveset. With Xenoblade 2 being a new mainline game from an already playable-represented franchise in Smash, it makes me think that Rex/Pyra are in THE forefront of Sakurai's radar for character development, with recency giving them the biggest favor.

In addition, I think the Blade mechanic is unique enough of a concept for Sakurai to easily dance his mind with several Smash gameplay ideas. Also, given that Nintendo and Monolith Soft have been pushing and marketing Xenoblade Chronicles 2 big-time (more promotional advertising than the original Xenoblade), it makes me think that a XC2 character for Smash Switch is a lock-in for the game. Is there competition for Rex/Pyra? Not really. I cannot picture Rex/Pyra being passed off by Sakurai at this point given the two major points I mentioned favoring the character. Elma from XCX is a possibility though. But, I feel Monolith Soft would most likely reject Sakurai's potential request to make Elma playable, in favor of making a XC2 character playable. To have XC2 be marketed highly, but add Elma instead would be a bad move for business and for Sakurai in terms of timing.

And this is more of a theory than anything else. But remember when Sakurai recently said he was developing Smash Switch in silence every day. But also recall a few months ago that he also completed Xenoblade 2 and said he enjoyed it? I think at that time, Sakurai was not only playing XC2 for enjoyment purposes, but also to further research Xenoblade 2 and how Rex/Pyra could be incorporated for Smash gameplay. We might even see some obscure fan-service costumes or easter eggs that only Sakurai could add, given that he has played the game in full.

 

[Spazzy_D]

75% - Literally, the only reason they won't be in is timing.
70% - Not my most wanted, but I enjoyed their game and would have fun playing as them in Smash.

 

[AwesomeAussie27]

Lots of design criticism, but at least there aren’t open arguments at the moment?
And to think, we are just a few days away from the first wave of “Too much FE” posts. Oh boy...

I can already imagine the controversy once my nomination starts having her day.

"Tokyo Mirage Sessions #FE is not a real crossover, it was ****"

"It's just a weaboo character that happen to disguise themselves as a Fire Emblem rep"

"The game was a flop, therefore it doesn't deserve a character".

 

[Murlough]

Rex and Pyra
Chance: 75%
Want: 30%

I don't care much for Xenoblade. Rex and Pyra look about as uninteresting as Shulk to me but as others have said Sakurai loves the series. I will be surprised if they don't get announced at this point.

 

[Mighty Moose]

Rex and Pyra

Chance: 80%
We know Sakurai likes the game and Xenoblade has grown a lot between Smash 4 and Smash Switch. Would probably be easy to make a moveset and have it be somewhat unique too.

Want: 50%
I know nothing about Xenoblade 2, I've never played it and I have no strong opinions on its representation in Smash. But they look mildly interesting as a character so I'll stick straight down the middle.

 

[Swaggy-G]

Chance: 60%
Hard to say. If Sakurai could add them, he probably would, but timing may be an issue. I definitely feel like we’ll be getting a new Xeno rep, but not necessarily them.

Want: 90%
I loved Xenoblade 2 and I’d love any character from that game really. Only reason they’re not at 100% is that they were my least favorite party members and I’d prefer other characters to them, but that’s not saying much. Also if Pyra does get in but is censored then hearing the whining from the anti censorship crowd won’t be fun.