Rate Their Chances- Smash Ultimate Day 349: First Party characters after the Fighters Pass

Aug 24, 2018
Switch FC
SW 0818-9732-6979
Chance: 65%
Want: 85%

Considering both Subspace Emissary and Adventure Mode were somewhat similar to Metroidvanias, the chances that Spirits will be similar are fairly high. (Especially since Castlevania is now represented along with Metroid in Smash) I loved Subspace Emissary when I first discovered its existence in Brawl, and thinking about it makes me more and more hyped for Ultimate. Adding more Metroidvania elements to Spirits mode would make the mode more fun and challenging to defeat. (Just don't make it too hard like the Great Maze level again please...)

Predictions: Linkle 0%

Nominations: Xurkitree x5 (Blasted past 100!)
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Smash Champion
Aug 3, 2014
New Jersey
Switch FC
Metroidvania Adventure Mode

Chance: 50%
I think we are definitely getting some sort of adventure mode. How the adventure mode actually will play is completely up in the air though. It could either be a straight-forward adventure mode like in Melee or be like the final section of Subspace that was one big giant Metroidvania map with different save points.

Want: 100%
Having any sort of adventure mode would be amazing. If we do get one I'm mainly hoping it deals with Nintendo-themed locations.

Nominations: Kyo Kusanagi x5
Jul 28, 2013
Infinite Glacier
Concept: Kirby and The Amazing Spirits:

Want: 50% - I don't really care either way. I do think it'd be cool, though, to go through an adventure mode that's similar to the Great Maze or The Amazing Mirror, as long as each area is based on a franchise (though I'd still like it if the areas were generic, it'd just be better with franchises).

Chance: 25% - I'm not sure it would happen, as I'm expecting Spirits to be similar to Melee's adventure mode. It's possible, though, so I'll give it a 25%.


Any Minecraft Representation x3
Steve? x2
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Sep 22, 2012
Balloon Fighter x192
Concept: More than five unique newcomers (excl. Ridley/Daisy/Inkling) x190
Kyo Kusanagi x190
Dovahkiin x185
Papyrus x180
Tsubasa Oribe x160
Concept: All-Star Versus x158

200 - 151

Snip & Clip (Snipperclips) x155
Fire Emblem Three Houses Protagonist x155
Concept: Octopath Traveller Character x151

150 - 101

Item: Beast Ball x150
Concept: Punch Out Newcomer x145
Edelgard x145
Black Knight as a boss character x140
Susie Haltmann x139
Barbara the Bat x132
Project Zero/Fatal Frame Protagonist x132
Stage: Poke Floats x130
2B x126
Guzma (Pokémon) x120
Zeraora (Pokemon) x118
Klonoa x117
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x115
Concept: Pikmin Newcomer x115
Daroach x115
Pokemon Trainer (Gen 2) x114
Gooey x113
Sans as a boss character x112
Raiden (Metal Gear) x110
Xurkitree (Pokémon) x103
Tora & Poppi x102

100 - 51

Merric (Fire Emblem) x100
Concept: Ken Masters alt Costume for Ryu x96
Viewtiful Joe x95
The Prince (Katamari) x95
Slime x91
Concept: Only 4-6 newcomers for base roster x90
Concept: Cross series Echoes x90
Rhythm Girl x90
Silvally x86
Concept: Character alternate costume DLC x80
Saki Amamiya x80
Chorus Kids x77
Yu Narakumi x76
Frank West x75
Veronica x73
9-Volt x68
Item: Breidablik x65
Toon Zelda x65
Concept: Historical Character x65
Endou Mamoru x62
Earthworm Jim x59
[Rerate] Steve? x58
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei Character x56
Leo (Fire Emblem) x55
Concept: Wars Characters x53
Takumi (Fire Emblem) x51
Concept: Any Minecraft representation x51

50 - 25

[Rerate] Spyro x45
Concept: DLC character pass x45
Donbe and Hikari (Shin Onigashima) x44
Joker (Persona) x44
Concept: Unique newcomer with low support (less than 20 supporters on Smashboards) x40
Concept: Xenoblade newcomer x40
Stage: Melemele Island x40
[Rerate] Sora x40
Adeleine x39
Quote x38
Stage: Ultra Space x35
Assist Trophy: Chun-Li x35
Concept: Break the Targets & Board the Platforms stage builder x35
Box Theory x34
Dixie Kong & Kiddy Kong x25
Blacephalon (Pokemon) x25
Master Chief x25

Under 25

Blog Theory x24
[Rerate] Concept: Zelda newcomer x20
Kat & Ana x20
Stage: Yoshi’s Crafted World x20
[Rerate] Gengar x20
Sub-Zero x17
Concept: Unique puzzle game rep x17
Concept: Modern Kirby Stage (Post Kirby Air Ride) x15
Concept: Custom Moves return x15
Concept: Custom Alternate Colors x15
Alexandra Roivas x15
[Rerate] Cranky Kong x15
Big Boss x15
[Rerate] Excitebiker x11
Ryuhi (Flying Dragon) x10
Metal Sonic x10
Dr. Lobe (Big Brain Academy) x10
Cross (Xenoblade Chronicles X) x10
Break the Targets x10
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x10
Concept: Dragon Quest content x10
Bub & Bob x10
Conker x10
Concept: Danganronpa music x10
[Rerate] Porky Minch x9
Volleyball Girl (NES Volleyball) x8
Stage Builder x8
Zeke (Xenoblade 2) x6
Stage: Gyromite Stage x5
Nia (Hyrule Warriors) x5
Concept: Valve Newcomer x5
Stage: SR388 x5
Concept: Playable Indie Character x5
Blaze the Cat x5
Alm x5
[Rerate] Octoling x5
Yandere Chan (Yandere Simulator) x5
Concept: Team Rocket as a Pokémon Trainer Echo x5
Cooking Mama x5
Playable Master Hand x5
Pam (Stardew Valley) x5
Captain Syrup x5
Concept: Return of Palutena’s Guidance/Codec Calls x5
Concept: Free DLC characters x5
Jin (Xenoblade) x5
Concept: Assist Trophy DLC x5
[Rerate] Black Shadow x5
Doshin the Giant x5
Stage: Mute City Melee x5
[Rerate] Lloyd Irving x5
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x5
Bartz Klauser x5
Stage: Tetris x5
Elite Beat Agents x5
Erdrick x5
King Hippo x4
[Rerate] Ayumi Tachibana x4
Concept: New Yoshi item x4
Black Mage x4
Stanley the Bugman x3
[Rerate] Ninten x3
Creeper x3
Concept: WarioWare newcomer x2
Concept: F-Zero newcomer x2
Assist Trophy: Creeper x2
Diskun x1
Item: Wumpa Fruit x1
Birdo x1
Goomba x1

Kyo Kusanagi passes Papyrus and Dovahkiin and ties with Concept: More than five unique newcomers for second place. He’ll probably reach number 1 (and 200 nominations) tomorrow.

Xurkitree crosses 100 noms.

Concept: Any Minecraft representation breaks past the 50 nom mark.


Smash Apprentice
Mar 28, 2018
Metroidvania Adventure Mode:

Chance: 40%

I´d say the Story Modes in the past Smash Games could be seen as "Metroidvanias", making it more likely for Ultimate too. Now with the Belmonts as Fighters in Smash (one of which is the first third Party Echo we got in Smash) and 2 new Metroid reps, it would fit perfectly. That we get a kinda Story/Adventure Mode seems also likely with the Name "Spirits" discovered.

Well, there is not really anything speaking against it, it´s just that there are also some other types of mode "Spirit" could be, simply making it lesss likely imo.

Want: 40%

While I liked the Story Modes we got so far, it was more because of the cutscenes and having a Story with all those childhood Characters Fighting together or against each other and more single Player Content that is a more different from the usual Gameplay. Furthermore, I am not the biggest fan of this genre, they usually feel a bit repetitive and annoying, but if done Right, they can be amazing. What I would really like to see for Ultimate of Course, is a Story mode with Adventure like stag,es if they are now in Metroidvania style, or simple platformer, or Focus more on Fighting, I don´t really care.

Slime: 5x


Smash Champion
Jun 8, 2017
That Distant Shore
Switch FC

Chance: 35%. We don't know what spirits is, so it's possible. Plus, Sakurai has experience with Metroidvanias with the GCO and Amazing Mirror. Sakurai liks to revisit old ideas (see Smash Run and City Trial). Not any higher because like I said, we know nothing about spirits. For all we know it could be Smash Tour deluxe.

Want: abstain.

Nominations: Cross Series Echoes x5
Jun 21, 2013
New Jersey
Chance: Abstain. We have absolutely no idea what Green/Spirits mode is. It could be this, it could be something else, but nothing has given us any indication.

Want: 50%. I mean I want something that matters for singleplayer (it's why I sold Smash 4) but I don't know if a Metroidvania would work.

Noms: 5x Unique Puzzle Game Rep


An old friend evolved
Jul 8, 2013
Getting geared up for the 20th
Chance: 30%
It's possible, we do know Spirits exists and we are getting Boss battles, but we don't know the full extent of it yet. It could be multiple other things from an updated Adventure Mode, a basic SSE, or even something multiplayer related. Due to that, I don't think I can give it too high a chance since we know so little to suggest what it could be, we just have some sparse information and our own speculation.

Want: 50%
I'd have to see the execution of it.

Addendum: There's not going to be a Monster Hunter stage. The arena we see Rathalos battle in is literally a plain, featureless background - perfect for a boss fight, but comparatively lousy for any multiplayer battle. Monster Hunter is pretty full of vibrant and unique locations, all of which could be easily repurposed into a flat plain for the Rathalos battle, so there's no real chance they'd have wasted time on making two separate Monster Hunter stage backgrounds, let alone chosen a flat, featureless, easy-to-model part of the Ancestral Steppes as their Monster Hunter stage.
At the risk of going a bit off-topic, isn't that exactly what's being speculated to have happened to Castlevania? The arena we see the Belmonts fight Dracula in is a featureless flat stage that despite sharing some assets with Dracula's Castle does have a differing background and features from its originator, so if that did happen for that stage it's not out of the realm of possibility that other stages are getting the same treatment.
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Feb 8, 2014
I'm going to skip chance because I have no idea, but I 100% WANT this. Such an awesome idea! And I actually liked Subspace emissary Great Maze. Just a area to fight Classic Nintendo enemies with a sense of progression would be amazing

Nominate Daroach x5


Smash Journeyman
Jul 9, 2018
Metroidvania-styled Adventure Mode

Chance: 50%
I feel like the Adventure Mode in Ultimate is going to be like this. I mean, Smash Run, which had a similar but not quite the same concept, was a thing in Smash 4, so I can definitely see that happening. However, it is entirely up to Sakurai whether the Adventure Mode in Ultimate should be like that or not.

Want: 100%
I would absolutely loved a Metroidvania-styled Adventure Mode. Imagine fighting some boss characters like Rathalos in a certain area and getting some items along the way, it would definitely be the best Single Player mode in Smash Ultimate. I would definitely play that everytime I'm bored.

Kyo Kusanagi x5
Sep 22, 2012
Finally, after three days of double zeroes, a good concept!

Now, I don’t feel like I can accurately rate this with a number, but I do think it’s likely. Sakurai has a history with Metroidvanias (Great Cave Offensive and areas of Subspace Emissary, including but not limited to the Great Maze, come to mind). Smash Run also has a byte-sized Metroidvania feel to its map design.

With the comments about streamlining the character unlocking process, any story mode could do the trick. The idea of a Metroidvania where instead of unlocking new powerups you get new characters is interesting, and it matches with previous content (like character-specific Break the Targets). However, it also has issues (how valuable would unlocking Falco be when you already have Fox?).

As for want, I’ll give it 85%. I love Metroidvanias, so I would be hella happy. But to be honest, I’m really hoping we get another instance of the cutscene goodness that was SSE. While a Metroidvania could have cutscenes, it seems unlikely if there’s sequence breaking of any sort (unless they account for multiple paths I guess). There’s also the fact that part of SSE’s charm was having different characters interact and collide, and that was aided by the fact that the characters started out separate and slowly gathered into different groups. In this hypothetical Metroidvania, it seems like it would just be one big team adding characters one at a time.

None of these issues are unfixable, but they do tend to point towards a Metroidvania meaning the exclusion of SSE’s cutscenes. As much as I love Metroidvanias, there’s a ton of them out there I can play, so I’d rather it borrow SSE’s style.

Just don’t give us Melee’s Adventure Mode.

Linkle prediction: 3%

Nominations: Saki AmamiyaX5


Smash Lord
Jan 19, 2013
Metroidvainia Mode

Chance - 20% - Honestly, I don't think we have enough info to give an accurate rating here. Whatever Spirits mode ends up being is likely to determine if this is confirmed or not. While statistically speaking I don't think so, it fits given what Sakurai has done in the past.

Want - 50% - Heavily dependent on execution. It could be amazing, or it could be a massive waster of resources like Subspace. I want to see it implemented first before saying anything.

Linkle prediction - 1.23% - Not happening...


Slime X5


Smash Ace
Jul 29, 2018
The blast zone
Metroidvania Adventure Mode

Chance: 25% Base, 5% DLC
It's definitely a possibility. Although there is a greater chance it might not happen, it seems like something Sakurai could do. It does seem a little big for the time constraints of Smash Ultimate, though.
Want: 100%
This would totally be a fun ride. As one of the few people who actually liked The Great Maze, I would have a grand old time playing through it, and would probably replay i multiple times.

Character alternate costume DLC x5


Smash Journeyman
Feb 26, 2015
Nagoya, Japan

Chance: 60%
Seems like a better-than-average chance of happening. We know there's gonna be some kind of 'story' mode, and Subspace was already in the vein of a Metroidvania. Having both Metroid and Castlevania in the roster, and with what we've seen of bosses including Dracula himself... It just seems like the best assumption with the limited information we have right now.

Want: 100%
Love Metroidvanias, love Smash single-player content, love this idea. I'd be happy with any kind of Smash story mode, but a Metroidvania just suits Smash's playstyle better than most options. I mean... what other genre are you pull from? An RPG?

Nom Nom Noms: [Concept] Character alternate costume DLC x5
Sep 1, 2018
Mexico City
Metroidvania Mode
Chance: ABSTAIN-Yeah, first time I'm doing this. I just don't know what to think about such idea. The mystery mode is such a, well, mystery, it can really go any way, it could even be another Smash Run for all I care.
Want: 80%-I'd appreciate anything like Melee's Adventure Mode really. Doesn't matter how it's formatted so long as it's fun to play.
Nominations: DLC character pass x5
Oct 1, 2008
Metroidvania-like Adventure Mode

Chance: Abstain
There's no telling what Spirits mode is, or whether it's single-player content at all. While Smash Run proved that a giant overworld map full of enemies can be a pretty fun arena, that's not to say with any certainty what Ultimate will do for its solo adventure, if it has one.

Want: 75%
How many times are people going to nominate a Story Mode? Yes, everyone wants one, but it's a hell of a luxury to develop, and Sora Ltd. isn't made of infinite developers that do 100-hour work weeks (...I assume.)

A Metroidvania-style adventure might be the most interesting way to go about it, though, since you wouldn't have to worry so much about making a big linear plot that'd probably fail to live up to most people's fanfics anyway. You could let people complete it with whichever characters they wanted, allowing them to finish the story with whichever heroes or villains they wanted. While that might sound a little like the Great Maze, most of the problems people had there was that it was almost 100% reused assets, stages we'd already played through. A more focused attempt could also choose to lock out portions of the map based on the characters that people had unlocked, making barriers that can't be passed until you bring a character that's fast/strong/tricky enough to get past them.

Linkle: 1%

Sans (boss) x5

At the risk of going a bit off-topic, isn't that exactly what's being speculated to have happened to Castlevania? The arena we see the Belmonts fight Dracula in is a featureless flat stage that despite sharing some assets with Dracula's Castle does have a differing background and features from its originator, so if that did happen for that stage it's not out of the realm of possibility that other stages are getting the same treatment.
They use essentially the same backdrop - similar window panes, similar column, similar castle layout. They both serve as interesting stage backdrops and use similar, if not the same, assets efficiently.

The Ancestral Steppes plain is visually uninteresting and pragmatically barren, almost as if its only function is to be a place for the Rathalos battle to happen. If they had a more interesting portion of the map to use as a stage, they'd have used that as the backdrop instead of making the plains at all.
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Jan 4, 2010
Switch FC
Metroidvania-like Adventure Mode:

Chance: 40% - I think it could happen, and it's more plausible than SSE 2.0, but it would also be extremely difficult to piece together. Like, if instead of collecting powerups you collect fighters (tying into how you unlock characters) it'd be an enormous task to design a world where all 70+ fighters can be played without completely breaking it, at that point you either accept that there's going to be a ton of sequence breaking, or you design the world in such a barebones way that no one's powers can really be used in interesting ways to unlock more of the world, and neither is ideal. They could just place a bunch of forceful locks everywhere which unlock when progress is made, rather than depending on which abilities you get from the new fighters you've collected, but that'd kind of defeat the purpose, at least in my opinion.

Again, I could still see it happen, we've already seen them attempt a smaller version of this with The Great Maze, so obviously the idea is there, and they've continuously shown a willingness to make compromises in the past, but I do also think the amount of challenging design issues they'd have to overcome (what I mentioned is just the tip of the iceberg and more the issues it presents on a conceptual level) could shy them away from it.

Want: 60% - I'm not really that interested in what Spirits is going to be as Adventure Mode has never been a defining part of my Smash experience, but this could still be neat. It'd at least be better than a Melee Adventure Mode 2.0 or a watered down SSE as it could have a higher replay value, and it would provide a fast and more interactive way of unlocking characters.
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Smash Journeyman
Jul 4, 2018
The Netherlands
Metroidvania-like Adventure Mode:
Chance: 5%
I'll just be blunt, I find that the mysterious green spirits mode to be an adventure mode of any kind is extremely unlikely. I think a much more safer bet is a multiplayer mode like Smash Run or Smash Tour. My reasoning is simple: Smash Run and Smash Tour were both multiplayer modes featured on the main menu in green. On top of that, doesn't an adventure mode sound more like something that'd be featured under "Games and More" like classic and all-star? Of course, they can break patterns, I just don't see why they would in this case. This is all just talking about its placement within SSBU's menus, however, and not the probability of it actually happening.

I won't deny however, that an adventure mode has been in demand. And I can see it being a mode regardless. IF we're going to even get a metroid-vania style ANYTHING, my personal theory is that they're going to have event matches be mixed with a metroid-vania like hub-world, maybe? I dunno. Then again, it would just seem like unnecessary padding between the event matches.

That being said, I can see "streamlined character unlock conditions" going well together with a metroidvania style. Subspace unlocked characters you found on the way, so I'm not throwing out the possibility completely on a fresh take on it. However, I doubt there's going to be an actual story behind it all, considering we've gotten CG trailers like with 4.

Want: 1%
Not against the idea, but I'm just not a metroidvania enthusiast from what I've played. I also wouldn't really care if we didn't get an adventure mode of any kind myself.
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Jun 25, 2014
Hunting Down Ever Amiibo
abstain just can't give a fair judgment on this one

I want a adventure mode but I really liked the SE start more than the end of the game. So if I had to choose I would rather have something like but I still enjoyed the end of SE so I would be cool with it.

earthworm jim x5


Smash Cadet
Jun 12, 2018
Chances: 1% - Basically not going to happen, unfortunately. It'd just be too much dev time.
Want: 100% - Metroidvania's are my favorite genre, so you can imagine how much I loved The Great Maze. A dedicated Metroidvania style area would be wonderful.

Nominations: Papyrus x5


An old friend evolved
Jul 8, 2013
Getting geared up for the 20th
They use essentially the same backdrop - similar window panes, similar column, similar castle layout. They both serve as interesting stage backdrops and use similar, if not the same, assets efficiently.

The Ancestral Steppes plain is visually uninteresting and pragmatically barren, almost as if its only function is to be a place for the Rathalos battle to happen. If they had a more interesting portion of the map to use as a stage, they'd have used that as the backdrop instead of making the plains at all.
Potentially yes, but if I may raise a counterpoint we also have to consider the nature of the bosses we're comparing. Dracula in his iconic appearances is fought completely on the foreground of a 2D plane, never interacting with lithe background outside of his throne and thus not conflicting with any objects within it. Rathalos makes complete use of a 3D arena, flying around it, breathing fire, etc., fundamentally making use of what the stage allows. This is reflected in their boss battles, Rathalos, unlike Dracula, interacts completely with the background, swooping in and out, firing fireballs, and other such things, essentially existing in both a 2D and 3D plane. If there were more objects in the background, most of his actions would clash with other obstacles if they were present. Thus, if the intent was to have a boss arena to fight the Rathalos, it makes more sense to have a plain field for the boss battle to take place on since the focus should be on the Rathalos first.

Additionally, we also have to remember that the field of Ancestral Steppe in that sequence is still a very notable (if not the most notable) part of the area. That's the image that the MH4 covers use, that's the area that gets showcased in cutscenes, and that's an area where you can fight the most iconic monsters such as Rathalos. With that in mind it makes a lot of sense to draw from that particular area and develop a stage from there since it's one of the most recognizable areas you can use, and then with a playable version you can add more backdrops and objects to make it more distinct since then the Rathalos won't have to be a consideration.
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Smash Champion
Aug 21, 2014
New York
The Great Maze

Chance: abstain
Want: abstain

Confession Bear: I really don’t know what would exactly define Metroidvania.

Still, I’m up for more single player content. Sm4sh was trash in that regard, with the exception of some overly repetitive Smash Run rounds. If we’re just talking about something like the Great Maze part of Subspace...

Confession Bear 2: I actually really liked the Great Maze and thought it was a great culmination of the SSE.

With both of the namesakes in, :ultsamus::ultsimon:, it makes semse that something Metroidvania-esque could end up in game. We also have zero idea what Spirits entails...or really anything beyond vs. mode and “classic is now a predetermined story for each character.” I’m very excited to see what there is for those of us who don’t have the lives the people in the Switch ads do - I have to make plans with my flaky friend months in advance to get someone to come by, and then he’ll cancel twenty minutes before since his wife’s sister’s mother’s guinea pig needs to go to the hardware store or something.

Here’s hoping we get news soon...

Nom: Dovahkiin x5


Super Pac-Fan
Jun 7, 2013
US (Mountain Time, -7 Hours)
Metroidvania Adventure Mode

Chance: Abstain
Want: 100%

I'm not positive about chances, especially because I wouldn't consider Subspace to be Metroidvania-like. Going off of Wikipedia:

"...interconnected world map the player can explore, though access to parts of the world is often limited by doors or other obstacles that can only be passed once the player has acquired special items, tools, weapons or abilities within the game." (Emphasis mine.)

If this is referring to a true Metroidvania adventure mode, it would require things like powerups in my eyes. The chances of that seem very, very low to me.

If, however, this is meant to refer to a mode ala Subspace or a fleshed out Smash Run, then I consider that more likely than not.

Want should be fairly self-explanatory either way.

Nominations: x5 Historical Surprise Character
Dec 23, 2012
Switch FC
Metroidvania-like adventure mode concept
Chance: abstain
Want: 80%

I've explained my idea on this concept once, it would consist of a map like the Great Maze where you have to find new fighters to unlock. The starting point depends on which of the 8 starter fighters the player has chosen.
Whatever the Spirits mode will consist of, this concept may be the new "fun way" to unlock characters Sakurai talked about last E3.

Noms: Break the Targets & Board the Platforms stage builder x5
Jan 7, 2013
Vaguely defined “gamer lingo name” style adventure mode
Chance: 4% - I feel that a lot of people are jumping the gun to assume that “Spirit” mode is some kind of in-depth huge adventure mode. As of now we know absolutely nothing about it other than its leaked name and the fact that it’s probably where Rathalos and other bosses are fought. I imagine that if we are getting a new free-roaming mode than it will most likely be like Melee’s “adventure” mode: short enough to play in a single playthrough, with mostly linear level design. It’s becoming increasingly clear that Sakurai and his team have reached the point where they need to take a lot of development shortcuts to balance out an enormous 75+ character roster ( the fact that over 90% of stages so far are remakes is evidence of that). I can no longer see them finding the time to make a complete metroidvania style adventure mode.
Want: 40% - I’m not entirely sure if it’s something I’d enjoy. I loved subspace emissary but the great maze seemed to drag on forever. I think I’d prefer an adventure mode without any backtracking or room hunting.

Nominations: Edelgard x5