Rate Their Chances- Smash Ultimate Day 349: First Party characters after the Fighters Pass

DaUsername

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Isaac
Chance: 55%
Isaac is a pretty popular character in Smash speculation, so he has a pretty decent shot. But unlike :ultkrool: and :ultridley:, he's from a dead series, so that might hurt his chances a bit.
Want: N/A
Abstaining from the other guy.

Isabelle prediction: 90%
Shadow prediction: 80%
Noms: Nathan Drake x5
 

Barbasol

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British Columbia
Isaac
Chance: 25%

Unfortunately Golden Sun has only gotten less and less relevant and remembered by gaming as a whole as time has gone on, and it seems to be reaching the likelihood levels of an Advance Wars or Custom Robo rep. The poll definitely would help, but not sure how much he resounds like K Rool did.

Want: 45% - Don't want him personally, but would be happy for the community to get him.

Nominations:
Black Knight x10
 
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Isabelle and Shadow have Echo ratings of 80% expectancy, and Unique ratings of 0% expectancy from me. Isabelle has a 10% want, and Shadow has a 65% want. Elaborating on their chances is meaningless when others have discussed them much more. I have no desire to see Isabelle for anything other than a helper, though that could be reflected in her idles or other things and hey, she's got the fanbase and star power. Shadow is basically nostalgia of mine and an appreciation for the character, even (and by even I mean especially) in his much maligned starring role.

No predictions.
 
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Nemuresu

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Shadow:
Chance: 70%-Considering how requested Shadow is, I'm quite sure Sakurai took notice from that in the same way he did with the last two echo fighters. Also, AT still absent.
Want: 90%-I have a thing for edgy characters in fighting games (eg. Jedah from Darkstalkers or Freeman from Garou), and I used to play his game a lot when I was a kid. I'd sure love to play as him.

Isabelle:
Chance: 80%-A lot of people want her and she's been very prominent in other Nintendo games like Mario Kart 8. Not much else to say.
Want: 50%- Never played New Leaf, but I'm not against her inclusion, anyways.

Predictions:
Porky and Masked Man: Both get a 5%.

Nominations:
Concept: DLC character pass x5/x10 (depending on how many points are available for this round)
 
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Shadow:
Chance: 80%- With the rise of Echo Fighters I see Shadow as one of the first characters to come to mind as an echo fighter.

Want: 60%- I see it as possible and while I would sort of want it... seeing more sonic characters that aren't Eggman or Knuckles just doesn't excite me that much.

Isabelle:

Chance 80%- Animal Crossing has become one of the most prominent Nintendo games and Isabelle would be the face of the series if Villager wasn't a playable character in smash 4.

Want: 65% - sort of want it but wouldn't care that much if she wasn't in.
 

Sari

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Isabelle

I've been waiting for this day forever.



Chance: 85%
She's appeared in most of the leaks and hasn't been shown off as an AT yet. I feel like Kapp'n being shown off as an AT instead of her has essentially sealed the deal of her making it in. The popularity of AC as a whole and Isabelle being featured in most AC media (as well as appearing in Mario Kart 8) also helps a bit.

Want: 100%
Isabelle and Celica are my most wanted first-party newcomers, and in Isabelle's case she was one of my most wanted characters for SSB4. I loved New Leaf and Isabelle's bright attitude would always makes me smile. If it's true that she'll be a Villager echo then that's fine by me since I love using Villager. Whether she's unique or an echo, I plan to main her.

-----

Shadow

Chance: 90%
Been in most of the leaks, extremely popular, and would be fairly easy to make as a Sonic echo.

Want: 15%
If he's going to be a Sonic echo then I can't say I'm too excited since Sonic's moveset is one of my least favorites in the series. Also if the Sonic series were to get another rep, I'd prefer Tails or Robotnik.

-----

Chance predictions:

Porky: 34.62%
Masked Man: 7.31%

-----

Nominations:
Terry Bogard x5
 
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aarchak

Smash Ace
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Jul 29, 2018
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501
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The blast zone
Isabelle

Chance: 50%
It's very possible, but I don't really have much to go off of, so I'm going with my gut on this one.
Want: 30%
I'm not a fan of the Animal Crossing series, but I don't dislike the characters, so I'm sort of "ehh" on her.



Shadow

Chance: 80%
It's pretty likely, easy, obvious, and fan-pleasing, so I think Sakurai would do it.
Want: 70%
I'm not too keen on the Sonic series, but I think Shadow would work well, so he's fine in my eyes.


Nominations: Zeke (Xenoblade 2) x5
 

Starbound

Worlds Apart, But Still Together.
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Isabelle: 99% chance / 70% want

I don't see any scenario where she doesn't get in unless Sakurai decides to drop the game tomorrow. She is the most important character missing from the roster.

Shadow: 70% chance / 10% want

Would prefer Tails but this is an easier choice for an echo. Not a fan of the character though.

5x nomz for Pam (Stardew Valley)
 

hposter

Smash Apprentice
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Aug 13, 2018
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Shadow
Chance: 75%
Shadow's probably the most logical choice for an echo as of right now, other than arguably Ken Masters from Street Fighter. With Sonic being as big of a franchise as it is, and with Sega having pretty good relations with Nintendo, I believe Shadow's inclusion is definitely warranted. While Tails may be the more sensible choice for a second Sonic character in general, having Shadow be an echo of Sonic with Mewtwo's Up+B would be easy to create and would make sense.

Want: 100%
I dunno, I just like 'em.

Isabelle
Chance: 50%
Isabelle's a weird case in my opinion. I personally can't see Isabelle being an echo whatsoever. (c'mon, isabelle with the balloon up+b?) And aside from that, I can't imagine anything for Isabelle's moveset other than, say, smacking you with a clipboard or something along those lines. Though if she's an echo, I could imagine her variant of Villager's gyroid Side+B having Lloyd (the gyroid with a hard hat) instead of a regular one. Maybe it moves slower and can't be used as a horizontal recovery but has super armor in the front? Who knows.

Want: 40%
Isabelle would be neat to see, and more Animal Crossing representation would be fine by me. Though Isabelle would have to have a very unique spin on Villager's moveset for me to be satisfied with her being an echo.
 
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Whew, a lot of posts to sift through today!

Ninten x338
Terry Bogard x317
Jin Kazama x300
Django (Boktai) x290
Reinhardt Gets a Trophy x285
[Rerate] Phoenix Wright x275
Rowlet x265

Over 200

Concept: Hanafuda Character x257
Gardevoir x240
Thwomp x226
Linkle x225
Concept: Disconfirmed Characters as DLC x225
Ray (Custom Robo) x217
Nathan Drake x205

200 - 151

Concept: Fire Emblem Spear User x198
Balloon Fighter x190
DeMille x188
Papyrus x180
Concept: More than five unique newcomers (excl. Ridley/Daisy/Inkling) x165
Amaterasu x165
No More Stages x163
Louie x160
Tsubasa Oribe x160
Concept: All-Star Versus x158
Snip & Clip (Snipperclips) x155
Fire Emblem Three Houses Protagonist x155

150 - 101

Concept: Octopath Traveller Character x150
Rick/Coo/Kine x144
Stage: Poke Floats x130
Item: Beast Ball x127
2B x126
Concept: Metroidvania-like Adventure Mode x126
Fjorm (Fire Emblem) x125
Barbara the Bat x122
Concept: Punch Out Newcomer x120
Klonoa x117
Pokemon Trainer (Gen 2) x114
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x110
Concept: Pikmin Newcomer x110
Project Zero/Fatal Frame Protagonist x107
Raiden (Metal Gear) x105
Susie Haltmann x104
Daroach x102
Tora & Poppi x102

100 - 51

Edelgard x100
Zeraora (Pokemon) x99
Concept: Ken Masters alt Costume for Ryu x96
Viewtiful Joe x95
Gooey x94
Concept: Only 4-6 newcomers for base roster x90
Dovahkiin x90
Reimu Hakurei x85
Guzma (Pokémon) x80
Veronica x73
Yu Narakumi x71
Item: Breidablik x65
Frank West x65
Toon Zelda x64
Endou Mamoru x62
9-Volt x62
Concept: Historical Character x60
Slime x58
Chorus Kids x56
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei Character x55
Concept: Wars Characters x53

50 - 25

Takumi (Fire Emblem) x50
Black Knight as a boss character x50
Rhythm Girl x50
[Rerate] Spyro x45
Silvally x45
Hilda (The Legend of Zelda) x40
Earthworm Jim x39
Stage: Ultra Space x35
Assist Trophy: Chun-Li x35
Concept: Unique newcomer with low support (less than 20 supporters on Smashboards) x35
Adeleine x34
Concept: Xenoblade newcomer x30
Dixie Kong & Kiddy Kong x25
Blacephalon (Pokemon) x25
Sans as a boss character x25

Under 25

Donbe and Hikari (Shin Onigashima) x24
Master Chief x20
Concept: Break the Targets & Board the Platforms stage builder x20
[Rerate] Concept: Zelda newcomer x20
Sub-Zero x17
Concept: Modern Kirby Stage (Post Kirby Air Ride) x15
Concept: Custom Moves return x15
Concept: Custom Alternate Colors x15
Alexandra Roivas x15
Ryuhi (Flying Dragon) x10
Metal Sonic x10
Dr. Lobe (Big Brain Academy) x10
Cross (Xenoblade Chronicles X) x10
Break the Targets x10
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x10
Concept: Dragon Quest content x10
[Rerate] Cranky Kong x10
Kat & Ana x10
Leo (Fire Emblem) x10
Volleyball Girl (NES Volleyball) x8
[Rerate] Excitebiker x6
Stage: Gyromite Stage x5
Nia (Hyrule Warriors) x5
Concept: Valve Newcomer x5
Concept: SR388 Stage x5
Concept: Playable Indie Character x5
Blaze the Cat x5
Alm x5
[Rerate] Octolings x5
[Rerate] Gengar x5
Yandere Chan (Yandere Simulator) x5
Concept: Team Rocket as a Pokémon Trainer Echo x5
Cooking Mama x5
Playable Master Hand x5
Joker (Persona) x5
Big Boss x5
King Hippo x4
[Rerate] Ayumi Tachibana x4
Concept: New Yoshi item x4
Diskun x1
Item: Wumpa Fruit x1

Jin Kazama breaks 300 noms and jumps to number 3, passing Django and Reinhardt’s trophy.

Nathan Drake climbs past 200 noms (and just as I’m about to beat Drake’s Deception too! Real excited for this guy to get rated)

Big Boss joins as a new challenger, with 5 nominations!

Cetus Cetus Al-kīmiyā' Al-kīmiyā' PK_Wonder PK_Wonder Starting with Isaac’s day we’re going back to 5 nominations each, so only five nominations were counted for you.

Final Smash Gamer Final Smash Gamer Even if a character’s day extends, you don’t get twice the nominations (if you were just reiterating I apologize for the confusion). Either way, only five noms were counted.

warpenguin55 warpenguin55 Sorry, but you were warned. As your nominations weren’t divisible by 2, they were simply not counted. Make sure you do five a day from now on.

Barbasol Barbasol Black Knight is scheduled to be rated, so your nominations weren’t counted. After his day, feel free to nominate him for a rerate if you so desire.
 

Buzzwole

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Messages
455
At this point, I'd be SHOCKED if Shadow isn't playable. I'd say he's a lock. I'm like 95% sure he'll get in.

Isabelle on the other hand is like a 50%.
Her exclusion as an assist trophy so far is weird, but I still really have a hard time seeing her fighting.
 
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Isabelle
Chance: 80%
I personally believe that alongside Shadow and Ken, she is one of the most likely echo fighters to join.
Want: 60%
Why not? She is essentially the face of Animal Crossing and if she's a unique fighter, even better.

Shadow
Chance: 80%
With his AT MIA, this could either mean that he is a retired assist trophy or he is planned to be playable, although things seem to lean towards the later.

Want: 90%
While I would like him to be a unique fighter, if he got in as an echo, I would be OK to see him go back to his roots, just throw in Chaos Control as a differential move and there we go.
 

Cetus

Smash Apprentice
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Jul 5, 2018
Messages
190
Shadow

Chances-80%
Not much I can really say other than everything points to Shadow being playable. Echo fighters and Knuckles being the Sonic assist really make it almost guarantee.

Want-15%
Never been a huge fan of the Sonic games but... I guess he'd be cool.

Isabelle

Chances-90%
From her popularity, echos being a thing, and Kapp'n being the Animal Crossing assist, I think her chances have never been higher.

Want-100%

She's probably one of my biggest requests for the game so far, so I'm all for her inclusion.

Nominations-
Pikmin Newcomer 5x
 
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StormC

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Oct 29, 2014
Messages
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Isabelle
Chance: 80%
Want: 50%

I had my reservations about Isabelle's chances before but after the 8.8 Direct, I feel if she was still an AT she would be shown by now, not to mention displaying a brand new Animal Crossing AT in the form of Kapp'n. She's incredibly popular and heavily pushed by Nintendo, and echoes don't have to be as close as originally thought so she could very easy be tweaked to Villager's proportions. There's a chance she could be unique but I personally don't see it with the kind of game Animal Crossing is and none of the suggested movesets have changed my mind on that. Still a small chance her AT remains.

I don't play Animal Crossing but her inclusion absolutely makes sense and seeing a secretary dog do battle is a funny idea. Especially if she boxes.

Shadow
Chance: 70%
Want: 60%

Shadow seems good to go. Popular but controversial character who would cause a lot of outrage if he was a unique fighter, but would be totally accepted as an echo, a la Daisy. His AT is nowhere in sight and Knuckles is there instead. At this point I consider him more or less the most likely echo. Still, almost nothing is a sure thing in Smash, except that Waluigi isn't playable.

Initially I didn't care about Shadow but I've warmed up to the idea. It would be a nice surge of Sonic Adventure 2 nostalgia and these days Shadow's "edginess" is tame and almost charming in a weird goofy way. Plus there would be so, so many memes. And isn't that what Smash is really about?
 
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Isabelle
Chance: 55%
Want: abstain

Re-quoting what I previously said about her, but she's easily the 2nd most recognizable face of Animal Crossing after :ultvillager:.
Abstaining in want score as I don't know which score to give her, as I'm still not sure if she'd suit well withing Smash's fighting spirit.

Shadow
Chance: 100%
Want: 70%

:ultrichter:, yet to be seen as an AT as Knuckles is the new Sonic assist character, to me there's too many coincidences for Shadow to be planned as a :ultsonic: echo.
And I'd welcome him with open arms as Sonic Adventure 2 was my first and is my favorite Sonic game.


Noms:
Metroidvania-like adventure mode x5

Porky prediction: 9.37%
Masked Man prediction: 6.41%


Final Smash Gamer Final Smash Gamer Even if a character’s day extends, you don’t get twice the nominations (if you were just reiterating I apologize for the confusion). Either way, only five noms were counted.
Yes I was just reiterating my previous post, I should have precised it.
 
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562
Shadow.png

Chance - 85%
Probably the highest I'd be willing to go on anyone now, but Shadow just has that big of an arrow pointing towards him. He's popular and iconic. He's very similar to Sonic which provides easy Echo opportunities. I wouldn't doubt he scored decent to good on the ballot as well. Richter kicked the door open for him as well showing 3rd party franchises can score another rep. I think the only possible outcome of him not getting in is if Tails takes the spot instead, but, I could even see Sonic getting both Tails and Shadow. Sega isn't exactly shy on sharing the Sonic cast anymore. Knuckles is out as AT, Eggman would make a stellar boss, and Amy doesn't hold popularity on Tails or Shadow's level. I could easily see Tails as a unique newcomer, Shadow as a echo, and we get Eggman as a boss. (though I note Shadow could be awesome as a unique newcomer as well, but i feel he is more likely to be a echo)

Want - 100%
I loved Sonic Adventure 2 Battle growing up and poured quite a bit of time into it. Shadow raised many Chao that he fed, played with, raced, threw, and stomped on. (you know, the usual Chao stuff) While I could see Tails deserving the position just as well, I'd be excited for Shadow just as much. Even though he may be edgy (especially in his game), I can't start but like him more than other edgy characters that came afterwards or even Sonic himself who can be pretty obnoxious.

Isabelle.png
Chance - 75%

Animal Crossing is big and she is a pretty big face now as she even landed in Mario Kart. She can turn into a Villager echo pretty easily, but I do have doubts on how popular his move set really is to be cloned over. But I don't think it'll matter much cause she pretty much took a stand as Animal Crossing's mascot.

Want - 50%
I have no personal love and hate for her. I'm not that keen on Villager or his moves, but I'd probably like her more cause she is cute. I never played an Animal Crossing game as well, so that doesn't help her out.




Noms 5x Gardevoir
 
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Luminario

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Your guess is as good as mine
My girl Issy
Chance: 90%
Massively popular character from a massively popular series, could get in as either unique or an echo, Kapp'n as a new AC AT, she ticks all the boxes here. The only reason I didn't give her 100% is cause Sakurai can make some pretty questionable decisions.
Want:100%
My most wanted. She's a STAR.

Edgy Sonic
Chance:85%
As a canon Sonic echo, he's probably in, with a nice teleport up B to boot. His AT missing with Knuckles taking the spotlight adds to his chances even more.
Want:5%
Don't really give a **** about him, but the jet boots are cool. I dread to think about having to fight 2 different versions of Sonic though.
 
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warelander

Smash Apprentice
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Oct 13, 2015
Messages
199
Shadow

Chances: 80%
Richter has shown that Sakurai doesn't mind a second rep for third party franchises, SEGA is on good terms with Nintendo and Sonic is big on Nintendo.

Really, I'd be more surprised if Shadow wasn't in Ultimate.

Want: 80%
I'm not as big into Sonic as I used to be, but I still have a soft spot for the characters and the games that I like, so I'd welcome Shadow.


Isabelle

Chances: 50%
I can see things go either way for her, she's being heavily promoted by Nintendo, but that doesn't need to translate into a SSBU roster spot, as some other characters have already shown.

Want: 5%
I wouldn't hate her inclusion, but I'm not an Animal Crossing guy and Isabelle doesn't interest me at all as both a fighter and a character.

Nominations: 5x Kat and Ana
 

Strider_Bond00J

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Shadow:
Chance: 75%
If you ask me, Shadow's one of the likeliest third-party Echo Fighters alongside Ken. He's got a strong casual fanbase and I imagine plenty of requests to be playable. Knuckles also seems to be taking over the role of the Sonic series' Assist Trophy, and his previous AT has gone missing in action. Given that we've seen Dark Samus and Chrom, I can definitely see them adding Shadow as an Echo of Sonic, but maybe draw stuff from other characters to emulate his signature Chaos Control abilities.

Want: 70%
Although Tails or Eggman are the next Sonic characters I wanna see in Smash as their, Shadow wouldn't bother me too much if he were playable if he were a straight-up Echo or his own fighter. Then we can have Team Edgelord represented! :ultdarksamus: :ultdarkpit: :ultshadow:

Isabelle:
Chance: 65%
Once again, another bizarrely MIA Assist Trophy, but Isabelle clearly has popularity to her name as one of Animal Crossing's main characters. I guess she might have scored enough popularity from places like Mario Kart 8 that they might want to keep Isabelle as a recurring name in the community, so they'll add her as an Echo Fighter since Villager already captures the most of Animal Crossing as they are. Maybe as her own character, but it's more likely she could easily be an Echo.

Want: 50%
Neutral towards Isabelle as a character. She's cute as a button, and if she's an Echo for Villager that's fine by me, and a win in the book for many Animal Crossing fans since she's one of the main mascots for the series these days.
 
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Joined
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Isabelle

Chance: 90%
She’s the face of Animal Crossing, bar none. Hell, she’s one of the faces of Nintendo, at least as far as Nintendo is concerned! But oh wait, Ultimate is about popularity? She has that too!

Want: 100%
A Nintendo All-Star if I’ve ever seen one. Sadly the consensus seems to be that she’d be an Echo, as I feel she has the potential and merit to be unique, but if I can see her in the game I’ll take what I can get.

Shadow

Chance: 85%
Echoes being a thing helps him. Chrom showing Echoes can have moves from multiple characters especially helps him. He’s iconic and the number 2 of the Sonic games (sorry Tails). While he might not have had too high a spot on the ballot (although casual voters might have helped him), the previous factors may prop him up. Him being third party could either help (Sega asks for him) or hurt (he’s lower priority).

Want: 90%
I’m all for third party characters when they’re iconic. Shadow fits the bill. Plus I personally like the character. Really, the only reason he’s not 100 percent is because I’m a ****ing Smash purist and I feel threatened by every third party addition (even though all of them so far have been deserving and pleased me, heh).

Nominations: Phoenix WrightX5 (I’m trying to avoid ol’ Nick falling off the top 7, if somebody could help with either him or Ninten it’d be appreciated)
 

BlueMagician

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Jul 17, 2018
Messages
390
Isabelle

Chance: 55%
She might get in as an echo or semi-clone or original character, depending on how much they want to draw on from the Animal Crossing series. I don't think she was a Ballot choice, however, and some people don't want to fight her in Smash. On the other hand, her popularity has gone up since the Ballot and general expectations are that she should just get in regardless.

Want: 72%
So, I think Isabelle's been a great addition to Animal Crossing, probably one of my favorite things about the series. I want to see her, but hopefully with an original moveset, because at this point I'm sick that we don't have a new female-only fighter with an original moveset.


Shadow the Hedgehog

Chance: 67%
It seems really easy to put him in as an echo, considering he was meant to be physically similar to Sonic. Shadow also can be really similar or really different to Sonic as the situation calls. It might be different to make him feel different from Sonic's Smash set outside of special moves, but that's not too important for Echo Fighters. Shadow was decently popular during the Ballot, too (edit: or at least based on what we know). However, I wouldn't be surprised if Shadow didn't make it for any reason.

Want: 55%
I like Shadow well enough, but I must admit I want to see him primarily because it'd feel natural what with Echoes and all. Also, I want to see other fighters that SEGA owns as well, and I'm hoping people don't hold Shadow against that.

Nominations:
Terry Bogard x 5
 
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EricTheGamerman

Smash Champion
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Jul 21, 2014
Messages
2,546
Shadow

Chance - 95%
He’s the closest to a lock of any character in my opinion. He’s a super popular character that is super easy to stick over Sonic and tweak as necessary. We haven’t seen the assist trophy for him, and Sega has probably the best relationship with Nintendo of any third party at this point. Additionally he’s a much more logical echo than say Tails, which would be the only real reason not to include him.

Want - 50%

All of that said, Shadow has zero meaning to me. I know people like him, and I’d be happy for those people. If they put some extra work to make him a little more unique he might also be a more appealing Sonic to me. I’d much rather see Tails as the second Sonic Rep (Unique mind you). But he’s the only post Genesis Sonic character I can really tolerate too... so let him in.

Isabelle

Chance - 65%

Isabelle is a little more difficult to rate, as I can see a reality in which she makes it in the game as unique, but that is much less likely in my mind. I give her this high of a rating based upon being a potential Echo for Villager. She’s one of the few breakout stars from the past few years (and more importantly, one of the few left). She’d make sense as a Villager echo, and her assist trophy is still missing. That’s enough for me to believe she has a solid chance as an Echo fighter.

Want - 100%

I pretty much just think it would be hilarious to fight with her, so I just want it to happen. I also love Animal Crossing and I’m all for more representation of the series, especially from a character I like. Though I think Tom Nook and KK Slider are better second representatives
 

Aeon Lupin

Survival of the fittest
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Aug 24, 2014
Messages
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Shadow

Chance - 95%
Shadow is the first time I feel truly confident in a character's inclusion. Virtually everything has been aligning itself for him to make it as an echo. So much so, Sakurai might as well have a sign up saying "Shadow's Sonic's echo." With echoes being a way to pad out what would otherwise be a scarce newcomer list, Shadow is a prime echo who'd help bolster the list of all-stars for far less work.

Want - 65%
I'd more than welcome Shadow's inclusion. I enjoyed playing him in Heroes, and SA2, and I think he's sufficiently cool. There are Sonic characters, though, that I'd much rather want, but I recognize he's the most feasible at this point, so I'll take what I can get.


Abstaining on Isabelle

No predictions
 
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Cabbagehead

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Isabelle
Chance: 95%
Want: 80%

Despite being a newer face in the Animal Crossing franchise, she was obviously created to be the official mascot of the series. With her debut in New Leaf (Animal Crossing's best-selling game, mind you), a wave of Isabelle cameos and merchandise came following soon after. Her presence is significant, and she seems to be propped up by Nintendo as one of the "All-Stars". The only hurdle she might have to overcome is moveset potential, but considering how great of a job Villager's moveset does of encompassing the AC series, a visually tweaked version of it would be all that's necessary for Isabelle. I seriously can't see a world where Ultimate comes and goes without a playable Isabelle.

As far as my want score, she isn't my most-wanted, but she is a true Nintendo All-Star from a personally nostalgic series. I would feel nothing but joy to see her make the cut.

Shadow
Chance: 95%
Want: 65%

Like Isabelle, Shadow is a prominent character who benefits from the high priority placed on Echo Fighters. A breakout character from his own franchise whose first appearance was that of a "clone" of Sonic (gameplay-wise), he fits the bill perfectly for what we've come to know as the "Echo Fighter". On top of that, his Assist Trophy is nowhere to be seen. While that normally doesn't mean anything, the (typically) limited amount of third-party Assist Trophies paints a more optimistic picture for Shadow, with Knuckles's Assist inclusion adding an extra layer of optimism.

While I'm not the biggest fan of third-parties, I have a soft spot in my heart for the Sonic series. Also, I'd get a good laugh out of hearing Shadow in full edge swing while I'm playing Smash Bros. Hopefully, he still hasn't found that fourth Chaos Emerald so he'll be in an extra angsty mood.
 

Souldin

Smash Journeyman
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250
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Souldin
Isabelle (Animal Crossing series)
Chances: 95%
If Isabelle is not playable, I will be completely shocked. She has so much going for her; popularity, promotion, prominence, possibilities. Her series is a big one of Nintendo's and she's been pushed heaving as a sort of mascot for it.​
Her chances I'd put above anyone else's, because not only does have all these strong points in her favour, she also has Echo potential. I personally believe she'll get in as a character with a unique move-set, but the fact that she even has the alternative option of being an Echo is strong argument for her gaining a playable role, regardless of how that is.​

Want: 56%
I'd prefer Tom Nook, but Isabelle is a pretty deserving character for inclusion and Animal Crossing is a pretty deserving series for multiple reps. This Want will probably be a lot lower if she is an Echo; I feel people pass on her potential for a unique move-set too easily (though I feel that is my problem with the introduction with Echoes in general). Aside from that... I'm not a fan of Animal Crossing but she is a cute character and a Nintendo one at that who'd allow an under-represented Nintendo series to gain more representation.​

Shadow (Sonic series)
Chances: 68%
I think I may have rated Shadow a little lower than others here, but I tend to make these rate their chances without looking at other people's ratings first. Now to be clear; this is in regards to Shadow having a role as an Echo fighter, as I highly doubt he'd be included as an original character (so far the only 2nd rep from a 3rd party series is an Echo, so I'm using that as a limiter until proven otherwise).​
I'm assuming everyone will have gone over why Shadow is likely; he's an easy Echo, popular, fits a rival theme that seems to be a popular belief as of late, has a character distinct from Sonic that can be expressed through taunts and such, no costume confusion, etcetera. So instead I'll talk about reasons why he might not be included. For starters, the whole Simon/Ritcher thing might be a special exception, given that Simon's move-set takes a lot of inspiration from Ritcher. Shadow also has competition for the Echo spot from the likes of Tails, and despite fitting as a rival to Sonic, Shadow doesn't fill in a villain spot or anything like the inclusion of Ridley, King K. Rool and Dark Samus.​
My final reasoning as to why I believe Shadow isn't as guaranteed as a Sonic as others believe... I'm pretty Sakurai hates Sonic, or at least doesn't care for him. Just look at all the love and dedication that has gone into the other 3rd party inclusions, particularly Mega Man and Simon Belmont, then look to Sonic. His move-set is bland, consisting of mainly variations of his spin attack rather than other potential moves such as Light Speed Dash, Sonic Wind/Blue Tornado, Bound Jump/Bounce Attack, Super Boost, and many more. Even his alternative costumes are boring, with it being difficult to tell them apart in the midst of battle. I just don't think Sakurai cares for Sonic quite like he does some of the other 3rd parties in SSB. I still think Sahdow's chances are in the realm of more likely than not for inclusion, but if other 3rd party Echoes get included such as Roll or Ken... I wouldn't be surprised.​
Want: 25%
I like Shadow... not as much as I used to (Sonic Adventure 2 and Heroes was good... I'd have liked him being a robot clone, that was a cool idea), but I like him. I don't like 3rd parties in SSB, nor am I a huge fan of Echoes; though a 3rd party Echo is pretty much the only way I feel comfortable with the inclusion of a 2nd rep for any of the 3rd party series represented in SSB as it doesn't take development time away from the Nintendo characters. If he does get included, I hope he at least has Chaos Spear; love that move.​

I've so many I want to see nominated for rating, but I doubt I'll get more than one at this rate... ah well, you know who I'm nominating:
Nominations: x5 Fatal Frame Protagonist
 

zeonie888

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Feb 26, 2007
Messages
86
Shadow:

Chance: 75%
With Echo fighters being interesting and not seeing his assist trophy in the demo for now might lead to him promoting to a playable character like Little Mac did. With what Chrom had shown Shadow doesn't have to have all of Sonic's moves.

Want: 65%
I have played Sonic Adventure 2 and the gamecube port. Along with Sonic Heros. He does look interesting and I wouldn't mind to see him return and maybe duel it out with Sonic.


Isabelle:

Chance: 80%
Despite me not playing any of the animal crossing games Isabelle has been popping up in a lot of things and even a guest character for Mario Kart 8. Her assist trophy hasn't been seen yet.

Want: 75%
She's very cute and it would be very interesting to see how she would play either as an echo or unique. I'm really curious to see how she would use items or different ones.
 

DarkFoxTeam

Smash Journeyman
Joined
May 28, 2013
Messages
348
Location
Washington D.C.
Shadow

Chance: 75%
What is there to say about him that hasn't been said at this point? I believe he has a fairly good shot considering his absence as an AT along with Richter proving that 3rd party characters can also receive echos. It also helps that he is very popular and the ballot may have influenced their decision to make him an echo. I know for Source Gaming's poll in Japan, Shadow placed in the top 25. I've also seen many Japanese videos and tweets campaigning for him. So that shows he has worldwide appeal which may or may not help influence Sakurai.

Want: 100%
Shadow is personally my favorite Sonic character. I've been a fan of Sonic since I was a kid, so I grew up with all the classics, but no character really stuck out to me like Shadow did in SA2. I enjoyed his whole arc between SA2 - STH and really got to like him. I was also really happy to see him get a playable role in Forces (even if it was minimal) and I like how he's being promoted for Team Sonic Racing. So I'm hoping this is the beginning of a resurgence for him. Anyways, I remember back during the Brawl days how Sonic was my most requested character and I was so happy to have gotten him. He's still my main to this day and that wont change, but I've always loved the idea of having both him and Shadow together in Smash. I would definitely main both if he's added.

Isabelle

Chance: 80%
Isabelle seems like a she has a strong chance of joining the roster if you ask me. Her popularity has exploded in recent years and the fact that she's playable in Mario Kart 8 shows that Nintendo has big plans for her. It also helps that she hasn't been seen as an AT, so that definitely helps towards her inclusion. My only worry is that her whole character seems to go against the idea of fighting, but I don't think that really matters in the whole grand scheme of things.

Want: 80%
I actually want her as much as I think she has a chance of getting in. I like the Animal Crossing series a lot and I think they really did change things up when they added her in New Leaf. Plus, I like the idea of Animal Crossing getting two reps. It's such a popular series, so it's definitely earned a secondary character. I'm also interesting in seeing how different she would be from Villager. I'm sure they'll be minor, but considering what Sakurai has done with other echoes, I bet it'll be something really nice. Here's hoping she makes it in.
 
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Messages
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I said previously I wouldn't go above 75% for any newcomers

Isabelle is the exception
Chance 85%
Isabelle is the unique position that I think they will definitely try and get in the game, she's pretty much the Mascot of the series at this point, she's everywhere, EVEN Mario Kart, AND I think she could get away with being either unique or echo easily.
Want 60%
She makes sense to me, and I like characters who make sense.


Shadow
Chance 65%
Richter has given me a different opinion. Third party echoes are now a thing.
Want 30%
I'm not completely sold on the idea of third party echoes, but if it's happening we may as well get Shadow (although I'm not sold on his current voice actor). Give him Mewtwos teleport.

Nominate No More stages x5
 

Artix

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Jul 9, 2018
Messages
254
Isabelle

Chance: 80%
I have a feeling that Isabelle might get in Smash. For one, she's very popular and I can see why, since I always see her in every Smash Poll I've encountered in the web. Plus, if I remember correctly, New Leaf was the highest-selling Animal Crossing game of all time, so that's another reason why people want Isabelle in Smash.

Want: 20%
Eh, not really interested about her. But I wouldn't mind if she was a playable character in Ultimate, since I've played New Leaf sometimes in my spare time.

Shadow

Chance: 65%
With Richter proving that third-party characters can have Echo Fighters and Chrom proving that Echo Fighters can have different moves from the original, I'd say Shadow has a better chance of making it in Smash. He's been highly requested by fans and he's also very popular in the Sonic franchise, but it's really up to Sakurai whether he should add him or not.

Want: 90%
I really love Shadow the Hedgehog, he's one of my favorite characters of the Sonic franchise, alongside Blaze. Like everyone said, he could obviously get in as an Echo of Sonic, but the only (and obvious) difference is that Shadow can perform some Chaos attacks, like Chaos Control. And his Final Smash should involve him going Super Shadow and then use Chaos Blast or something.

Nominations:
Jin Kazama x5
 

MasterOfKnees

Space Pirate
Joined
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Isabelle:

Chance: 95% - As sure as I've ever been about anyone's inclusion really, she's in, and I even feel like there's still a chance she could be completely unique.

Want: 50% - Never played AC, and as such I don't really care about her, but she's definitely more than earned the right to take part in Smash.

Shadow:

Chance: 85% - Makes too much sense given everything we've seen, he has everything to back him up: popularity (among the wider community), been replaced as an AT, 3rd party echoes are happening, and as such Shadow is almost certainly happening aswell.

Want: 50% - I don't like Shadow at all, he's like an amalgation of everything I can't stand about modern Sonic. However, I do still think he'd be a fun addition, having watched my brother slave himself through modern Sonic titles we'd at least have a lot of ironic fun with him.

By the way, these two are by far the most likely characters imo, so it's not that I hand out these percentages to just about anyone.
 
Last edited:
Joined
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Isabelle
Chance: 90%
Only this high by the virtue of being leaked by Verg. I'm one of the people who thinks she'll be an echo with one move changed at most.

Want: 25%
I guess I wouldn't mind her if she were a echo.

Shadow
Chance: 65%
Sure we haven't seen him as a Assist trophy yet, but there still is the chance he actually does turn out to be one... or maybe they could've just trashed
him because he's honestly just an inferior version of the Timer item. Also it's not like he's the only option for a Sonic echo out there anyway.

Want: 0%
Still don't like him. Rather have Tails or Metal as echoes.

Porky: 7.58%
Masked Man: 5.94%

Punch Out newcomer x5
 
Joined
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Echo Day

Isabelle
chance
popular AC charcter and easy echo. Also miising AT and has a AC replacment AT so I think she has a decent chance
85%

want
not really a big fan of AC so not really intrested in her. I just hope that they make her interesting and not a exact echo give us something slightly diffrent from villager
40%

shadow
chance
the biggest issue I thought woudl have been if they wanted to not do 3rd party echos but richter proves that they are all for it. Not only is he a missing AT he also is a fan favorite sonic charcter that would be a really easy echo. This is by far the most likely chrcter I think we have atm.
95%

want
I like shadow so I am all for him. Not really much to add here so I just hope that he gets new taunts from sonic
100%

nominating
rick coo and kine x5
 
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Isabelle:

CHANCE: 85%

I thought she was one of the most obvious inclusions even before echo fighters were a thing. What more could you ask for? Extraordinarily popular as an Animal Crossing character who would've been one of the first disconfirmed if she were not playable. She got into Mario Kart, for goodness' sake! With focus given to high ballot placers and uncertainty around a full unique moveset for her, she will probably only be an echo, but she has enough appeal to Nintendo's audience that she'd still fit right in as a choice who'd get a lot of fans happy.

WANT: 90%


She's adorable and quirky in her role as the mayor's loyal assistant. I didn't play New Leaf for all too long but once an Animal Crossing game comes out for Switch, I'm sure she'll return to that role and be as enjoyable as ever.

Shadow:

CHANCE: 85%

Same rating here. I thought he had a decent shot before, but once Richter was confirmed, it now feels like it would be a strange omission to not have Shadow. Again, he would've been shown off early if he were not in, but instead we get Knuckles shown off thrice, as if they're saying, "hmm, isn't there somebody missing?".

He does play much like Sonic in some of his biggest appearances, but while his abilities still warrant a semi-clone moveset, Chrom shows that Shadow can have some creative liberties that will make him feel more like Shadow. Sonic characters are popular enough that even if they weren't high on the ballot, one could easily get Richtered in as somebody who has large appeal. In that regard, Shadow is the most popular character next to Sonic himself, so it only makes sense.

WANT: 80%

The Dreamcast/GameCube era of Sonic is something that I grew up on, and I still have a soft spot for the franchise even in its current struggles. Shadow isn't my favorite Sonic character but he has an enjoyable backstory in SA2 and is probably the best part of 06. I'd enjoy having him even if I like Knuckles and Silver more

I'll predict the Mother characters since I'm a big fan of the series.

Porky: 7.25%
Masked Man: 4%
 
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Isabelle
Chance: 85%
Last time I was harsh on her because if she was going to be a fully brand new character I could not see how different she could be compared to the villager. But if she were to be a echo than that would make a bit more sense.

Want: 50%
I have played new leaf but I'm kind of indifferent.

Shadow
Chance: 90%
The thing about shadow is we always see him in every iteration of smash. So why didn't we see him up until now? He's very important to the sonic franchise leaving him out or down grading is a waste. He's going to be a fighter.

Want: 40%
I don't really use sonic in smash. Kind of a boring move set. But shadow could bring maybe 1 or 2 different moves but then again meh.

Nomination Django x5
 

SamDunk

Smash Cadet
Joined
Aug 9, 2018
Messages
43
Isabelle
Chance: 80%
I do trust Vergeben, but even if he's wrong, the fact that she hasn't shown up as an Assist is very suspicious.

Want: 60%
She's popular and would make a lot of sense as an Echo for Villager. She doesn't generate too much excitement in me, is all.

Shadow
Chance: 85%
Same reasons as Isabelle.

Want: 55%
I've always been kind of indifferent towards Shadow, but he is popular and perfect for a Sonic Echo.
 

CaptainAmerica

Smash Champion
Joined
Aug 21, 2014
Messages
2,833
Location
New York
I went to a zoo once, but they only had one animal. A dog. It was a Shih Tzu.

Chance: 60%
Want: 80%

Bel may not be one of my most wanted characters, but she absolutely deserves it.

Besides the fact that she would be a ridiculously easy Villager echo, she's basically staged a coup on the franchise and became its new face since her debut in 2012. She is unequivocally the most important Nintendo character not currently playable in Smash.

Still, Ashley's importance has grown in leaps, but didn't save her from being an assist. Isabelle's known to eschew fighting, so her assist is actually a proper representation for her; I wouldn't be surprised if it stayed. Still, I think that if anyone gets the jump to playable, she should be first in line. She's playable in Mario Kart even! (That was April 2015, so before the Smash plan was made)

I want to see Ridley impale her with his tail stab. And then I want to see her running around with the Death's Scythe reaping everyone. My headcanon is that she has a secret dark side, and I really want to see it come out.

OW THE EDGE

Chance: 50%
Want: 0%

Here's another of those 'want' scores that is absolutely dependent on another character.

Shadow is completely a product of the late 90s - early 2000s. He's become the most popular character in the Sonicverse behind Sonic himself and he's a ridiculously easy Sonic clone. He's basically 'Sonic, but a dark anti-hero version.'

but...

In what universe does it feel right to add Wario before Luigi? And with Knuckles' promotion to assist and Shadow's existence as an assist and potential echo, Tails deserves a lot more than just getting stuck with Silver in the loop. Tails is Sonic's original best friend, and is one of the more recognizable characters to non-fans of the series.

For me, I won't really care about Shadow one way or the other after Tails gets in. But as Tails is recognized as Sonic's number 2, he should get priority.

---

Now, to address something for both of them - they were both assists in 4, and a lot of people took the Smash Ballot as 'This will decide DLC for Sm4sh' (only the Japanese admitted future games), and the fanrule was 'Assists can't get promoted' so many characters who were assists probably had throttled votes. We also don't know if the Mii costumes were for characters who were intending to get promotions in some way or not: by this time, some characters like K. Rool and Chrom are now in, but characters like Ashley are confirmed not. Isabelle (and Tails) did get one, Shadow didn't.

Prediction for both Mothers: 39.5%
Nom: Unpopular character x5
 

TerminatorLOL

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Apr 3, 2015
Messages
185
Shadow

Chance: 80%
With his AT still being MIA and seemingly being replaced by Knuckles, as well has the invention of echo fighters, Shadow's chances have never looked better. And thanks to the last bunch of echos we learned that third party's can have echos :ultrichter:, that they can have different running/idol animations :ultdarksamus:, and that they can have at least one different B special :ultchrom: (hope for a Chaos Control like warp up-B). Being Sonic's echo is just to perfect for him.

Want: 100%
I've wanted Shadow in Smash since Brawl. Sonic Adventurer 2 was one of my favorite childhood games and Shadow he has been one of my favorite characters since I was a kid.

Isabelle

Chance: 80%
I'm pretty much just trusting Vergeben on this one, since he has had good info so far. Just like Shadow her AT is also MIA and she makes sense as a echo fighter.

Want: 10%
Only played Animal Crossing on the GameCube, so I have no experience with her. But I get that she is pretty popular and she makes sense as the second rep for that series.
 

MajoraMoon

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Sep 2, 2018
Messages
161
Location
Termina
Shadow I would give him a decent 80% Since he was replaced by Knuckles and since Dark Samus is an echo fighter of Samus.

Want would be 75%


Isabelle I would give an 80% Since Animal Crossing hasn't gotten a new game yet and it would be nice to add Isabelle to hype players for an Animal Crossing game for the Switch that (maybe) might be announced alongside Isabelle's echo appearence.

Want would be 45%
 
Joined
Aug 20, 2018
Messages
55
Isabelle:
Chance: 50%
Shes popular but would she fit the model of Villager. Also, would it really make sense for her to use the same moves as him? I don't play Animal Crossing, I don't really know this stuff. Her assist trophy disappearing is another point in her favor as well.

Want: 0%
I don't get Isabelle and I don't care about Animal Crossing. Not interested in a rep from a series I don't care about. Plus, if what I heard about her being a pacifist is true, it wouldn't make since for her to fight. I'd really rather not continue past this point on as why I'd rather not see her in smash because it would just turn into me flaming the character and nobody wants to read that.

Shadow:
Chance: 85%
When echo fighters were first revealed, Shadow was one of the first characters that came to mind. With Richter echoing Simon, we now know 3rd party's can have echo fighters, and with his assist trophy still MIA, he's looking pretty good

Want: 45%
While I'd rather not have any more Sonic reps, Shadow is my 1 exception. He's already been in past smash games, he's such an obvious choice for an echo even I thought of him right away, and he wouldn't eat up a lot of dev time if he was added.

Nominations:
Silvally x3
Zeraora: x2
 
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