Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[BandanaWaddleDee]

Rayman
Chance: 20%
Want: 10%

Krystal Prediction
Chance: 14.55%

Nominations
Decloned Dark Pit x5

 

[Opossum]

Don't speak for everyone.
Opo actually wants the Rabbids in (that's what I inferred from his posts) and I know plenty of others who do.

I don't necessarily want them, but I'd take them over Rayman no questions asked.

 

[Deleted member]

I don't necessarily want them, but I'd take them over Rayman no questions asked.

I said that's what I inferred. Sorry for putting words in your mouth.
That said, my point still stands.

 

[Senselessbreak]

Rayman:
Chance 70%
Want 80%

 

[Opossum]

I said that's what I inferred. Sorry for putting words in your mouth.
That said, my point still stands.

No problem, just wanted to clarify.

Plus there's an entire support thread dedicated to Rabbids here, so at the very least some people want them, even in an echo chamber like Smashboards, haha.

 

[PeridotGX]

Beamdude

Odds: 60%. Pretty likely, but things could happen

Wants: 30%. He seems interesting, but I don't care too much

Nominations: Marx x4, Kamek x1.

 

[Erureido]

Rayman

Chance: 40%

Arguably the most likely third party to be included due to his trophy inclusion in Smash 4, his solid popularity, and the generally good terms Nintendo and Ubisoft have in terms of their relationship. Only major issue I can think of is being third party.

Want: Abstain

I'm not familiar with Rayman enough to give him an accurate rating since I've never had much exposure to him.

------

Predictions:

Krystal (Star Fox): 17.27%

I get the feeling her falling relevancy and her competition with Wolf will lead to lower scores tomorrow.

------

Nominations

Professor Layton (Professor Layton): x5

 

[Aetheri]

Rayman

Chance: 35%
Having him in Smash 4 in some capacity is a big step in the right direction...and Ubisoft and Nintendo being on very good terms with each other, I can definitely see it happening...

Want: 20%
Not particularly interested but I see the potential he would have should he join the playable cast...

---

Krystal: 24.5%

---

Zelda Newcomer x5

 

[Ura]

Ray-Dude

Chance: 75%

Unlike most prospective third parties, Rayman actually has a presence in the current Smash Bros and relevancy is on his side with the Rabbids game on the Switch. Being a gaming icon also helps. Although he still faces stiff competition for inclusion.

Want: 50%

Indifferent either way. Although it would be cool to have another gaming icon in the game.

Prediction: Krystal

Chance: 23%
Want: 56%

Nomination

Andy X 3
Agumon X 2

 

[Kirby Dragons]

Nominations: Urban Champion x5

 

[Jave]

Rayman

Chance: 60%
I say as far as 3rd Party characters go, he has one of the best chances, with his games being prominently on Nintendo systems and Ubisoft developing an actual Mario game on the Switch featuring the Rabbids. He even got that Trophy in Smash 4, which there was never a precedent for before. Of course, being a 3rd Party, a lot of things can happen, and 60% is probably the best chance I can give him (and probably the highest for any 3rd Party).

Want: 80%
Not my most wanted character but definitely someone I'd love to see in Smash. Bring it on.

Nominations:
- Phoenix Wright x 5

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Rayman
Chance: 40% - Of all third parties I think he's the most likely, between the buddy-buddy relationship of Nintendo and Ubisoft, and the trophies of Rayman characters, combined with the positive reception and inevitably good ballot results.
Want: 95% - Only one I want more is Sora.

Prediction: Krystal
Chance: 24.71%
Want: 38.90%

Nominations:
Sora x5

 

[GaroMaster]

Rayman:
Chance: 60%
Ok, so I'm going to go label all of the potential hurdles Rayman has to face before being included and I'll give my take on the situation. Let's start.

Spoiler: Counter Arguments

1. Rayman and Ubisoft do not have enough history on Nintendo hardware - This argument has always been confusing to me. Rayman has made an appearance on every piece of Nintendo hardware since the N64 with Rayman 2, with appearances on GBA, GCN, DS, Wii, 3DS, Wii U, and now the Switch. In this regard, Rayman has made a significant footprint on Nintendo hardware. Also, Ubisoft is currently one of the biggest third partners of the Switch, with Mario + Rabbids being the best selling third party game on the system. Needless to say, Ubisoft does have a long history with Nintendo and Rayman would be a great fit for Smash, which leads to....
2. Rayman isn't iconic enough - Look. I am not here to convince you that Rayman is on the same level as Sonic, Mega Man, Pac Man, Cloud, and Ryu. To say otherwise would be ignorant and show bias on my part. However, Bayonetta proves that you do not need to be a household name to be considered for Smash. I realize that fan demand and game exclusivity were the reasons why Bayo was included, but her games didn't exactly sell like gangbusters, either. Rayman may not be a gaming icon on the level of the aforementioned five, but he isn't obscure. After all, his series has been around since 1995 and sales amount to over 25 million, so he has seniority and success behind his belt. Plus, he is the mascot of Ubisoft, who is one of biggest video game companies in the world.
3. Rayman is a Western character - This is the strongest argument that can be used against Rayman. Rayman may be fairly well known in America and Europe, but he isn't a big nane in Japan. He also originates from France, not Japan. However, there are several factors to consider in regards to this issue. First of all, the Rayman series has its foot in the Smash door with three trophies. There hasn't been any explanation as to why this was the case, but many point out that Rayman Legends was published by Nintendo in Japan for Wii U. Perhaps he was considered for an inclusion, but he got trophies following Legends going multi plat? Who knows. It wouldn't have been such a big deal if Rayman only got one trophy like Commander Video, but he got three. Being obscure in Japan hasn't stopped other characters in the past from joining, though. I realize he is a first party, but Little Mac got in mainly due to high demand from Western audiences. This may be speculation on my part, but given how Bayonetta was announced to be a top choice in the U.S., Europe, and worldwide, why didn't they go over the Japanese results at the time? Was she not a popular choice in Japan? If you really want to get technical, then Diddy might as well be a western character since he was conceived by Rare, a British company. Of course, I'm just saying this for the sake of my argument, but I do think it's something to consider. Also, has Sakurai ever outright said that there would be no western characters in Smash? Even if he did say that, though, it's not unheard of for Sakurai to change his mind. After all, Sakurai did say that an Animal Crossing character would be too peaceful for Smash, yet here we are. It's not a sure thing to happen, but I wouldn't put it past Sakurai to go back on his word, either. Rayman may be hurt by the lack of Japanese popularity, but it doesn't seem to be the end all-be all for an inclusion. Being Western himself may be one of those things that hurts Rayman's chances, but Sakurai has been known to break trends, so who knows.
4. Rayman has been dormant - Rayman hasn't had a new game since 2013, but dormancy didn't stop Mega Man from joining Smash. Unlike Mega Man before his eventual inclusion, Rayman Legends has been ported to many platforms in recent years with the most recent rerelease being on Switch so it's not like Rayman has been doing nothing these past few years. As for Rayman not being included in Mario + Rabbids? I still think that Rayman would get in over Rabbids due to demand, but never say never. I'm just saying that Mario + Rabbids might have come out too late for the Rabbids to be considered for Smash 5's roster, but that's just a guess. Rayman isn't as active as, say, Sonic, but he hasn't been completely dormant like Mega Man was back then.

Rayman has a lot going for him. He's unique, fairly iconic, has a long history on Nintendo hardware, three trophies in Smash, and is the mascot of a company who is currently very close to Nintendo right now. The lack of Japanese support does hurt him as does the mere possibility of a Rabbid getting in, but overall? Rayman is in a good place that not many third parties can claim to be in. Ubisoft would also be very willing to work with Nintendo on his inclusion, so negotiations could go smoothly. He's no shoo-in, but Rayman has a strong shot at making it in Smash 5, whether it be in the base game or as DLC.
Want: 100%
The Omni leak is the reason why I made an account on Smashboards. It opened my eyes to just how awesome it would be to have Rayman in Smash and apparently, a lot of other people shared the same desire. Maybe he wasn't such an outlandish pick to be in Smash. Also, Rayman 2 was my childhood and everyone needs to play Origins and Legends. Without a doubt my #1 most wanted newcomer and would be a dream come true if he joined the battle.

 

[Basty]

Rayman

Chance: 70%
I think Rayman is up there with Bomberman as one of the last third party characters from a platforming series that should be added. He's unique as well and Ubisoft and Nintendo are on good terms

Want: 80%
I love Rayman but if he missed out I would be disappointed but it wouldn't be the end of the world

Krystal: 22% Chance

Gooey x5

 

[MrMcNuts]

RAYMAN!!!

Chance: 50%

My reasoning is pretty much the same as everyone else here with Ubisoft working well with the big N recently. And ya ya I know there is the whole "Oh but Mario had a crossover with the Rabbids so it would be them instead!". My arguement against that is that Rayman actually has a pretty decently big amount support for wanting him in smash, and I think Ubisoft would know that he has a much higher demand than the Rabbids and suggest him to Nintendo instead. Sure there are some people who unironically want the Rabbids, but from what I have seen, that amount is nowhere near the amount of people who want Rayman. Also I recall hearing that the smash bros team would use the ballot to help determine characters for future games, so they could probably see that he had a decent amount of support in that.

Want: 100%

I am currently sacrificing my left foot in a satanic ritual in order to increase his chances as we speak!

 

[MrNantendo]

Rayman

Chance: 60%

Rayman is a weird one. Nintendo and Ubisoft have a good relationship. Ubisoft is the biggest western publisher to have close ties to Nintendo. But they aren't from Japan which we know makes it harder for Sakurai to work with. Not only that but outside of Europe Rayman isn't that big of a series. Critically acclaimed most of the time but never a massive seller or must-have title. On top of that Rayman's impact on gaming isn't that large. Rayman isn't even Ubisoft's biggest series. But he is popular among Smash fans and Nintendo published Rayman Legends in Japan and both of these help. But then there is Rabbids and oh boy they could also get in.

Want: 60%

I'm indifferent on Rayman now. I use to be big for him but not as much anymore, at least compared to the likes of Simon, Bomberman and Arle.

Nomination: Arle Nadja x5

 

[MacDaddyNook]

Rayman:

Chance 40%
He did get a trophy in Smash, so he is at least recognized by Sakurai. However, I think the Rabbids will be chosen over him should a UbiSoft character be included.

Want: 20%
I've never had a real connection with the character. The only game of his I ever played had him outshined by the Rabbids.

 

[PhilosophicAnimal]

Gotta get this in quick--I'm on break at work, and I'm not gonna get home till the day ends. So here I go...

Day ten, the anatomical marvel.

Rayman

Chance: 75%

After several other big name 3rd party devs got their characters in Smash, I have to assume Ubi was kicking itself for not promoting Rayman in the same way. That should be apparent enough based on the inclusion of the Rayman trophies. Of course, this is all heresay, but it just seems like Ubi would not want to be left out this time. Plus, Ubi and Nintendo worked together on Mario and Rabbids, which surely prompted some discussion about Ubi IPs in Smash. And yes, that could mean it's more likely the Rabbids would get in, but somehow, I doubt they will make it as a playable character--they are guaranteed at least a few trophies, and are likely to get an assist, but a full character? Something tells me if Ubi was to pick someone to represent their company, it would be someone more prominent to their brand--Rayman, an Assassin's Creed character, someone from Watch Dogs...ANYTHING that better represents them. Of course, that's mostly opinion, too...but I will say this: if we were rating the Rabbids, I'd probably give them the same chance percentage.

...As much as I would hate to...

Want: 65%

I like the guy and his games, definitely. There's moveset potential too, and a lot of lore to dip into. But he's one of my "fringe likes", if you will. I'd like him, but I'm not excited for him. One of those that I think I wouldn't know I wanted till I had it.

Prediction: Krystal

Chance: 37.57%

Nominations

Marx x5

 

[Mighty Moose]

Rayman

Chance: 60%
Can't shake the feeling that Sm4sh was his best chance, but the evidence points to him being the most likely third party character. And considering at least a couple from Smash are probably gone there's room for him

Want: 70%
The Wii and Wii U Rayman games are great, he's a fun, quirky character, he'd be fun in Smash. There's a handful i'd want more though.

 

[Oasis Dealer]

Rayman
Chance: 60%
Probably the next most likely 3rd party character imo. Nintendo and Ubisoft have had a pretty good relationship so far (Especially letting them develop a Mario spin off of all things) and it doesn't seem to be stopping. Not only that, but Rayman has at least been represented some way in Smash already with his 3 trophies. While not a huge icon in the likes of Sonic, Pacman, or Cloud, Rayman as a franchise has sold considerably well. If the demand is there, I can see Sakurai trying to add him.

Want: 100%
I loved Rayman 2 as a kid and I've always liked Rayman from a design standpoint. The potential stage options would be amazing to see in Smash, not to mention the music.

 

[Gunla]

Short rating today, apologies. Mostly agree with Push but I don't think he is 70% likely.

Chance: 60%
Probably one of the frontrunners for a third party spot, especially in the new company category.

Want: 80%
Grew up with Rayman 3 and 1, so... yeah. I'd take him or Travis as the next third party.

Nominations: Celica x5

 

[Wolfie557]

oh yh this is a thing again, thanks push's tweet.

Rayman
Want: 100%
Chance: 65%

he only really has bomberman and crash to go against in that 3rd party pool.

and his limbs could make him have interesting hitboxes, maybe. Whatever happens he would fit right in.

Krytsal Prediction: 17%

 

[Troykv]

Rayman

That man without rays...

Anyway.

Chance: 40%

Okay, usually this would be considered too generous for my part, but I think Rayman is at least in Sakurai's mind thanks to the Wii U trophy and the recent colaboration with Ubisoft.

Want: 50%

Eh... I don't care

_____________________

Predictions: Krystal 22.5% (I'm expecting some overkill rates even considering she is now in a similar situation to other character I don't think I need to talk about).

Nominations: Micaiah x5

 

[Shyy_Guy595]

I don't get the overrating thing. The

Rayman

That man without rays...

Anyway.

Chance: 40%

Okay, usually this would be considered too generous for my part, but I think Rayman is at least in Sakurai's mind thanks to the Wii U trophy and the recent colaboration with Ubisoft.

Want: 50%

Eh... I don't care

_____________________

Predictions: Krystal 22.5% (I'm expecting some overkill rates even considering she is now in a similar situation to other character I don't think I need to talk about).

Nominations: Micaiah x5

What character? I'm curious

 

[Smasher 101]

Short-ish post today:

Rayman
Chance: 40%

Hesitant to rank third party newcomers too high as I have a harder time predicting those (though I expect at least a couple regardless), but I do think he's a frontrunner for reasons others have said.

Want: 80%

Sure! I like his games enough and he's a solid third party choice all around.

Krystal prediction: 24.47%

Nominations: Jibanyan x5

 

[Troykv]

I don't get the overrating thing. The


What character? I'm curious

Well, it can apply to some female protagonist/deuragonist that don't have many playable roles and are a bit overlooked nowadays (and in Krystal's case, still hadn't got an opportunity to reobtain recency) but are wanted for their fans because of their unique potential... But in this case I was thinking in Micaiah

 

[KingofPhantoms]

Were the extra nominations for Captain Toad predictions ever handed out?

That aside, I haven't had the time to do a more in-depth rating today, so this is gonna be shorter than my usual ratings.

Rayman Chance: 45%

I don't think his odds are that high, but they're up there. One of the more likely third-party newcomers, imo, hell, the fact that he got a trophy in Smash to begin with speaks volumes all on it's own. There's some other things in his favor as well as other things that are not, but I'm gonna leave it at this.

Want: 85%

I'd absolutely be happy to see Rayman in the game.

Krystal Prediction: 33%

Nominations: Shovel Knight x5

 

[AvionFinch]

Rayman

Chance: 50%
I feel like, if we get a western 3rd party character hes the most likely (followed by a certain couple of western indies imo), yet I could also see them going with a rabbid (at least be rabbid peach please). However, western 3rd parties also have all the problems that have been discussed so far (language barrier, Sakurai considering smash more of a Japanese showcase, etc).
But then come all the positives people have said so far, Ubisoft's standing as a top AAA company and their great relationship with Nintendo are really big plusses. And of course Rayman has gotten a LOT of buzz in the Smash community due to the fake leak. I could honestly see it going either way 3rd parties are super unpredictable, so I feel a 50-50 is accurate.

Want: 60%
I don't have a super strong connection with the fella, but I would still like to see him, if only because he'd be somewhat interesting (disjoints for daaaaaays) and it would make a lot of people quite happy. That being said, hes far from my most wanted 3rd party, Shantea, Shovel Knight, and of course Phoenix Wright are way higher up for me.

Speaking of Nick.
Nomination: Phoenix Wright x 5

 

[Wyoming]

Rayman:

Chance - 60% - trophy representation in Smash means Sakurai and his team are aware of him. Ubisoft cooperating with Nintendo decently enough recently. He isn't in the same tier as other third parties added to Smash previously in terms of importance, but remains a sizable and recognizable face of gaming.

It's a third party, however. You can never be too sure when there's tons of legal and contractual issues to negotiate.

Want - 70% - I liked the N64 era games. Not someone I'd be too bothered way or the other if he got in, but would be a nice addition to Smash.

Krystal Prediction: 16.4%

Noms: Cranky Kong x1, Black Shadow x3, Concept: Playable Master/Crazy Hand x1

 

[TheDukeofDorks]

Rayman

Chance: 15%

I don't think anybody has a clear idea as to how third parties will work this time around. The last two characters added to Smash for Wii U were CLOUD and BAYONETTA! What's next? Steve from Minecraft? Master Chief?! Sure, Rayman is in a pretty good spot when it comes to potential third party characters, having technically appeared in a Smash Brothers game before, but there are so many other characters to compete with. Crash, Spyro, Bomberman, Simon Belmont, even from within Ubisoft itself from... ugh... the Rabbids.

Want: 100000000000000000000000000%

There are a lot of characters I would be excited to see in Smash Brothers, but Rayman takes the cake. If he is revealed, I will cry. It'll be ugly, I'll need multiple tissues, and I'll probably be unresponsive for several hours. I wanted to unlock Rayman in Melee, he's been a pipe dream of mine for so many years, I used his face as my online avatar for years, the Rayman games practically raised me, and his inclusion would be the perfect kick in the pants for Ubisoft to start making Rayman 4.

Prediction for Krystal: 14%

Nominating Bomberman x5

 

[Xenigma]

Short post again, this has been a bizarre weekend.

Rayman
Chance - 25%
I can see it, but I don't think he's really high-profile enough to justify playable, especially depending on what other options are out there (Sm4sh's, Crash, etc). His trophy inclusion definitely helps, I just don't know if he can make the cut.
Want - 0%
I feel like this would be setting the bar too low for third party inclusions. Bayonetta is a de facto Nintendo character at this point, and I feel like every other third party character included so far is on another level of popularity/fame than Rayman. Curious to see where the line gets drawn on this front because I feel like it needs to be really high to keep being in Smash "special" as it were.

Nominations - Lucina x5

Krystal Prediction - 22% Chance, 44% Want
This feels like one of those characters where hope will never die, even if it probably should, and yes, I recognize the irony of saying that as an Isaac fan.

 

[Kitty-chan]

Rayman

Chance: 65%
If Nintendo's looking at ubisoft for 3rd party characters, he'd probably be the most likely one they choose nya.

Want: 25%
In all honesty, I wouldn't really care if he's in or nyot nya. Never played a rayman game before, nor ever had an interest in the series mew.

 

[zipzapsparkle]

Rayman

Chance: 40%
Want: 0%

I thought he would get in last time and then nothing happened. He’s still in the running but I think there’s a lot of competition between a lot of third parties.

Waluigi x4
Kamek x1

 

[Strider_Bond00J]

Rayman:

Chance: 60%
He's got one foot in the door already - He's been requested quite a bit ever since the infamous ArtsyOmni leak, and Ubisoft went out of their way to make their own model of Rayman for a Trophy in the Wii U version. So I can imagine that Ubisoft could easily request for Rayman if they wanted to or that they agreed Rayman would be a guest fighter. Problems I could see Rayman encountering are probably his series' lack of popularity in Japan (as quite Western franchises seem to suffer the same fate - Mortal Kombat being a prime example), he's passed up in favour of other possible third-party characters, or face competition from other characters from Ubisoft like an Assassin or the Rabbids.

Want: 90%
Although admittedly I'd say my most wanted third-party character is Doomguy, I'd absolutely LOVE to see Rayman in Smash Bros. Profound sadness was felt when I found out about the Rayman leak being fake, but I am hoping that maybe we'll see him in Smash alongside the other figures of gaming.

 

[Fenriraga]

I missed a few characters but eh.

Anyway, Rayman. YEAH! *Blows on trumpet then cackles*

Chance: 25%
I think Rayman is in the upper half of 3rd party characters in terms of possibility, but not by too much. I'd probably put him a bit higher if he didn't have fairly stiff competition, but as a Ubisoft rep, He's among the most likely, I'd say on fairly equal footing to our BWAAAAA-ing friends.

Want: 55%
Mostly indifferent. I've never really been wowed by any of Rayman's games, but that's just me. He's earned his place, at least, and I have a friend who would be VERY happy with his inclusion.

Nomination: Geno x5

 

[YoshiandToad]

Got to get this in quick!

Rayman

Chance: 60%
One of the more likely 3rd parties.

Want: 75%
I love the new Rayman games, and the original Raving Rabbids(the one with Rayman as protagonist still) was one of my very first Wii titles. Yes...

Prediction for Krystal: 41%

Nomination:
Concept: Zelda Newcomer x5

 

[DaUsername]

Rayman
Chance: 50%
Want: 99%

Krystal prediction: 32%
Noms: Crash Bandicoot x5

 

[ZealousGamer]

Rayman

Chances 45% I think Rayman had a better chance during the ballot. However, I don't think his chances went down too low.

Want 5%: I'd rather have someone else personally. I don't hate him or anything just wouldn't be excited.

Nominations:
Jibanyan 2x
Midna 2x
Skull Kid 1x

 

[Rioni]

Oh boy oh boy, the limbless wonder!

Chances: 50%
I don't know, he's kinda like in a weird spot. I mean, he does have a trophy in the last game but I don't know he would be actually a playable character for the next game. There is a slight chance but yeah.

Want: 100%
Rayman 1 was the first game I have ever played back when I was a wee tot so he holds a special place in my heart. I would definitely love it if he were to be playable! Though I wont be too disappointed if he wasn't in.

Nominations:
Sora (Kingdom Hearts) x3
Joker (Persona 5) x2

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Oh this is back cool

Chance 35%

Well he did get trophy in smash 4 no question about that but I think there's a couple of third parties higher tier than him

And that's Crash bandicoot and shovel knight

Want 90%

Another classic character for the game would be great

Nominations

Shovel knight 5x


Shame I missed Ridley and king k rool on this

Spoiler

If I were to do it it would be like this

King k rool

Chance 67%

The costume in smash 4 is good hope and also he should probably number 1 or 2 on the ballot

But not necessary means confirmed. Big road blocks is Dixie and funky

Want 100%

This I wanted for a while


Ridley

Chance 15%

I would be higher but big problem I see sakurai is driving the boat again and we know he was making excuses in the interview on why Ridley failed in smash 4 (his reason are clearly easy fixes for other people) he's basicly refusing to make Ridley playable

But it's not 1% due to two reasons 1 Ridley could be the villager of smash switch (he's know for having change of heart) and 2 there's a tease by Jonneh on another site.

Want 100%

Purple dragon and a alien all my favorite things.



Sorry couldn't resist doing them even though they were the first two days.