Lip, the flowery princess of the obscure, but beloved Panel De Pon.
Chance 35%
With Takamaru reprising his role as an Assist Trophy, and Balloon Fighter's dismay in Villagers Up-B once more (which does not disconfirm 100% btw), it is hard to figure out who the next form of Retro would be. Some people speculate that there might not even be a retro this time around, but knowing Sakurai and his love for obscurity, and surprising the fanbase, I'm very confident that a character in this regard will happen. People are allowed to be entitled their opinions, and that's why I hold mine in this regard.
With the new system not having any issues with limitations, making the grand return for Ice Climbers and their mechanic, and the fact that everyone is here, there is only for us to speculate the newcomers. And, in regards to the SNES who has not often actually gotten anything like the NES representatives, it might be time to look at the SNES. Many things are hinting to this game being about fanservice. With the Ballot exploding in current time of day with the exposure of Bayonetta and Corrin, and the factual proof of Ridley, and presumably late addition Daisy, we could understand that this is the ultimate game for fans of Smash.
A lot of other things are also pointing to this might being Sakurai's love letter to the fans, or his swan song. People are speculating their heads off with old interviews and records of Sakurai and his statements, which often seems to change in each installment of the franchise. Why is all of this important for Lip? Well ...
Lip comes from a Japan exclusive title for the SNES known as "Panel De Pon", the item Lip's Stick has been present since Melee, and Lip's theme since Brawl. While the character itself has not left Japan, the series has, and left marks in the western market. Titles such as Tetris Attack, Yoshi's Cookie, Pokémon Puzzle League, and Pokémon Puzzle Challenge are amongst the titles with the familiar "Panel De Pon formula". Sakurai has shown in the past his love and dedication on his Japan-Exclusive titles, with tons of Assist Trophies, and characters in the past. Notably, Marth & Roy for Melee, and Lucas for Brawl.
For Smash 4, the Japanese exclusive characters did not make a jump to playable, but all shafted into Assist Trophies. Now, knowing Sakurai not being predictable, and how he seems to change his own statements through games, and decision making, it is not too far fetche'd to believe he could do a Marth and Roy again. Why believe that? Because of the Smash Fighter Ballot of course. This is the first time the fans from all around the world gets their chance to vote for the characters they want.
I've seen research done by individuals trying to speculate what characters might have gotten a chance for consideration, regarding their following, campaigns and fanart. When it comes to Retro representation, Lip is the clear victor. Not even Takamaru had the same size of vocal following as what Lip had (Stated by
BluePikmin11
in his analyse for Lip), and while some might have thought Excitebiker being the logical choice, this did not happen until the reveal/tease of Smash 5/Ulimate. Excitebike did not have such following back in the Ballot days as Lip did. Why is this important outside of some votes? Well, it is apparent that Lip not only having followers in Japan, but also in Europe and America, which is something noticable, regarding her exclusivity. Sakurai has mentioned that he considers Panel De Pon a masterpiece, and that he wishes for people to play it, and back in Melee (where this comment came from), he was wondering if people would even know who she was. Now, with the Ballot clearly showing a cult following all around the world, it must have come to his attention at some point.
This could make Sakurai wish to work on Lip, as she would be an unique fighter, and adding something new to the already huge roster. We know that was one of the biggest focuses for Smash 4, and that not every character is going to be predictable. This leads me to believe that Lip does have a fair chance to appear in this game. Wether it is in form of Playable, or an Assist Trophy, I'm confident at some point we will have Lip appearing in the game.
Want: 100%
If you clearly read through my analyse you could get a lot of information to why I'd love the character. The game formula, and series is something I'm really enjoying, and finding it as my own masterpiece in that regard. I think she would be unique, and the retro rep I'd love the most.
Hopefully we will get to see Lip in some form or shape. This is to hoping that Panel De Pon will be localized, and utulized for further new titles in the series.