Rate Their Chances- Smash Ultimate Day 349: First Party characters after the Fighters Pass

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Steve
chance
man I am glad that he was not announced at E3 really lowers his chances. Sure Microsoft and Nintendo are close at the moment which is why I will rate him above 5. However the game seems to be fan service and Steve hopefully didn't seem to have much support so I think he will be in Smash Ultimate.
3%

want
0% same reasons as before

Chibi Robo
chance
I always feel bad for this guy he always gets missed in Smash not even a AT or stage. But while he did have a small fan base going for Smash 4 and had a game around that time he has a chance just don't think he will make the cut.
25%

want
He needs this. His series is on the rocks and Smash is known to bring people to try other Nintendo game's this could be his very last chance to stay afloat. Not to mention he would have a new moveset
100%

predicting
Banjo Kazooie 10%
Andy 4%

nominating
Incenoroar x5
Labo guy x5
 

AlphaSSB

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Characters not being seen in Final Smashes, as Assist Trophies, or no-longer having alts that reference them honestly has no impact on if they'll be playable or not.

Characters not being shown as Assist Trophies yet doesn't mean anything. It wouldn't surprise me if Sakurai and the development team prioritized adding in new Assist Trophies before new ones to show off. Plus, there's supposedly over 50 Assist Trophies, and I doubt all of them were in the demo. There's still a lot we haven't seen, new or returning.

Based off Ridley from the demo missing his Meta Ridley alt, I think it's safe to say that some of the palette swaps we've seen are placeholders. Maybe Sakurai wanted a pure black Samus suit? As for Ike, he's lost his last three alts, being a brown and burgundy, black, and 'Chrom' white. With 'buff' Ike only having four alts as opposed to eight, and with the default 'buff' Ike sharing the same default scheme as 'Brawl' Ike, I'm not surprised he lost a few.

Lastly, I'll agree that Final Smashes were shown off during the presentation in a way that deconfirmed characters. Protoman, Mecha Fiora, etc. However, many fighters got new Final Smashes. Maybe Robin got a new Final Smash that doesn't use Chrom, but it was unfinished and thus not shown? I think it's a safe call that any character that wasn't 90% finished wasn't added in the demo. I say 90% because it's obvious some characters don't have all their alts (Ridley), some characters are still broken (Bayonetta), or that some character's textures still need a touch-up (Fox).
 
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Steve

Chance: 10% (<- 40%)
Minecraft would only really need a stage to feel properly represented, if it's included at all. That's what you'd really want to represent, not the infinitely-customizable avatar that the game comes with. Bomberman's cameo did a number on the chances of every franchise with less than stellar recommendations, and Minecraft, for all its success, is still both relatively young and ridiculously lucky. Steve himself is still less of a character than most other icons, with his argument relying more on "deserving" the spot through Minecraft's undeniable success than by actually being a desirable character. While either Microsoft or Mojang would undoubtedly nudge the possibility forward if they ever negotiated with Sakurai, I doubt he'd really choose the character himself, especially when he has enough third-party companies to juggle around for Ultimate.

Want: 1% (<- 15%)
Too mainstream to count as an indie, and far more at home on the PC than any Nintendo system, a Minecraft character would hardly belong on an "ultimate" Smash Bros. We've got old favorites to prioritize for what few slots there are, and trying to negotiate a character from Minecraft out of Microsoft would take more resources than it'd be worth. A stage would be good enough, and a large-enough honor for a Western game with its kind of origins.


Chibi-Robo

Chance: 12% (<- 27%)
Not nearly enough slots to go around this time. Like Dillon, Chibi-Robo hasn't moved forward very much to make its chances any better, if at all. Maybe Sakurai takes pity on him this time, but I doubt that pity is in abundance with this kind of schedule.

Want: 33% <- 32%
Whether Chibi-Robo ever gets lucky enough to be included or not, I'm cool with its inclusion either way. Plenty of other candidates are controversial enough that a sizable number of people would rage over their inclusion, but Chibi-Robo is hardly one of them.


Predictions
Banjo-Kazooie: 9%
Andy: 13%

Nominations
Ninten x5
 
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Steve

Chance: 10%
(Previous score: 1%)


Microsoft and Nintendo do seem to have a better relationship than I may have thought before, so it's not entirely unfeasible after all, but I'm still hesitant to call it likely. I think it might be DLC, if anything. Even if Microsoft does happen, we're not necessarily guaranteed a character, and if we do get one Steve is not at all guaranteed to get in over Banjo & Kazooie. Steve does have a few things more in his favor, of course. Minecraft is admittedly more iconic, it's still very relevant, and he's probably more recognizable to the more casual crowd. On the other hand though, the bear and bird have been around longer, seem to be far more commonly requested online, were once Nintendo characters, and Phil Spencer's even commented on them. I would say at best Steve is about tied with the duo. If either gets in at all, anyway. Microsoft is still a direct competitor.

Want: 0%

Most iconic third parties will get decent scores from me, but I just don't like Steve. I didn't like Minecraft, I hate his design, and I don't think he'd be that interesting. There's plenty of other third parties that are better choices in my opinion. The fact that he's against my most wanted newcomer doesn't help, but I'd pass on him regardless. I'd be ok with like a Minecraft stage, though.

Chibi-Robo

Chance: 10%
(No change in score)


It's probably now or never for him, and unfortunately it's looking like it's going to be never. The good news it at least the series has been around for a while and at least the last game had good timing? The bad news is that said last game might have really been the last game, it could have very well killed off the series for good. He's just not as big of a name as others. There is a chance that Sakurai will want to give him a chance, but it's not a large one.

Want: 100%

I'm not even the biggest fan of his games, but I've always been a fan of the character. He's adorable and deserves better than what he's gotten, and it's very likely I'd find him to be a fun fighter. Would love to see him get in here.


Banjo-Kazooie prediction: 20.48%
Andy prediction: 4.80%


Nominations: Tails x10
 
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STEVE- Chances- 45% Minecraft is one of the best selling video games ever made and it's release on three Nintendo consoles (Wii U, 3DS, Switch) boost his chances even more as well as Sakurai commenting that he has played the game. I do however think that Sakurai may find him as a very boring choice due to nothing really making them stand out besides building which would be weird. There is also the fact that they are competing with a ballot favorite Banjo the bear whom Nintendo fans hold dear to their hearts and have been requesting since pre-Melee as well as other third parties characters who are more interesting to Sakurai. Also someone as big as Steve would've been an E3 bombshell for sure.

Want- 22% I have fond memories of playing Minecraft but I believe putting Steve/Alex in Smash Bros is a pretty lame idea. Their attacks are pretty basic and seem uninteresting to me. I'd prefer Microsoft to lend Banjo&Kazooie since they can bring more to the table. The best representation I would give is a stage that is randomly generated like Mario Maker and is constantly changing.

CHIBI ROBO- Chances-43% He was relevant back in 2015 when the project plan was made due to the release of Chibi-Robo ZipLash which helps him alot. Chibi-Robo does have his chances hurt by the poor sales of his franchise. According to VGchartz, none of his games has even broke the 500k copies sold barrier and he has competition with other franchises such as Rhythm Heaven and Golden Sun for a playable representative which both broke the million copies sold barrier and have bigger fanbases. His franchise may be shelved in the meanwhile due to the sales failure of ZipLash as the developers commented it may be their last chance.

Want- 77% The only Chibi-Robo game I've played is the first game and although I do not consider it to be outright amazing, it still is a pretty solid and charming game series with a dedicated fanbase. I love the simple design and aesthetic of the character and having a Nintendo character that isn't from a franchise with a playable rep especially one as beloved as Chibi-Robo is a huge plus for me. I prefer Smash being a museum of fan favourite Nintendo icons rather than promoting the latest games Nintendo want to promote that players have little attachment too. I can see Sakurai doing some really cool things with him especially with the use of his household appliances, his plug and his gadgets as weapons.
 

DaUsername

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Steve
Chance: 1%
At this point, I feel like if we're gonna get Steve, it won't be as a playable character.
Want: N/A

Chibi-Robo
Chance: 5%
Sadly, his franchise is dead, so he probably wont appear.
Want: 25%
Only because I feel sorry for him.

B-K Prediction: 22%
Andy prediction: 7%
Noms: Smash Run x10
 

Nimbostratus

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Steve
Chance- ABSTAIN
It's not clear to me whether or not Nintendo or Microsoft would be willing to work with each other- there's evidence that could be provided either way. Steve never does well on popularity polls, but I could also see where he might have been silently popular on the ballot by casual fans. He's from an iconic game, but would Sakurai have any interest in a blocky, terraforming character? I lean no, but I don't know where to put Steve's chances between 10-40%, so I'll abstain.
Want- 0%
For what's it's worth, I've had some fun playing Minecraft. I'd even be down for a Minecraft stage. But I'm very much opposed to Steve as a character joining Smash. Honestly, I'm not entirely sure why. It's probably that I think his design would just clash with the other characters, even if it works in his own game. Or that the terraforming aspects of his character wouldn't transition well. And some parts of the fanbase can, well... yeah.

Chibi-Robo
Chance- 10%
He's had games, some fairly recent. However, I don't think he made much of an impact on the ballot. Most people here seem like him, but I don't think he was many people's first choice, and I don't think he holds much mass appeal. Maybe his games would be enough to get him in, but Nintendo has been bungling the series for a while now. I'm not exactly confident they're going to fix that now. He's from one of the few series that is essentially "officially" dead, along with Mother. Not a good sign.
Want- 75%
No personal connection, but the fate of his series is very regrettable. He's a worthy first-party that could have a good moveset. Sure.
 
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Steve

Chance: 5%
Want: 0%

Although he is popular, I feel as though the Mincraft representation will just be the stage and AT from Vergeben's leak. Also if a Microsoft character is going to be added, it'll be Banjo.

Besides, keep this abomination away from Smash.

Chibi-Robo

Chance: 10%
Want: 70%

Sadly I still think he'll not make it. Series is dead now and spots are very tight right now. His only saving grace is the potential moveset the devs could see in him.

Nominate Lloyd Irving x5
 
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I think people are disregarding Steve in a rather rude way. While he may not be your (or my) favorite character, the kids today love the series and characters. I think it's a bit petty for the teens and young adults to think what they want is over what the kids might like to see as well.

Steve
Chance - 25%
Huge icon for the kids now. His series is huge and it got on the Switch. A stage could be enough though.
Want - 50%
0% as in no personal interest and concern on him looking good or 50% to appease the modern kids or 100% to watch you guys rage and cry over.
So I'll go with 50% for the nice middleground.

Chibi-Robo
Chance - 5%
Basically a newer Isaac. Character from a dead series, but his games were close to the project time. But his games were also less successful and less popular than Isaac's. At best, I can see him as a trophy or AT.
Want - 0%
No interest in him. His series failed. He's a little cute, but meh.

Nominations 10x Monster Hunter (If the 10 is still going on?, If not, 5)
 
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I think people are disregarding Steve in a rather rude way. While he may not be your (or my) favorite character, the kids today love the series and characters. I think it's a bit petty for the teens and young adults to think what they want is over what the kids might like to see as well.
Well, people will pick their Want scores based on what they want. Nobody else has to be taken into account for that. It’s not like being in Smash is some sort of charity, where you got to think about ‘what the little kids want’.

It’s not like you see kids clamoring for Steve in Smash either, it’s pretty clear that the Minecraft fandom is its own bubble and doesn’t have much overlap with anything else.
 
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CometX-ing

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I think people are disregarding Steve in a rather rude way. While he may not be your (or my) favorite character, the kids today love the series and characters. I think it's a bit petty for the teens and young adults to think what they want is over what the kids might like to see as well.
Honestly, speaking, Sakurai himself pays attention to what people are most vocal about and kids aren't vocal, it's teens and adults. I honestly cannot think of a character who was added for the sake of children. Ridley, Duck Hunt, Ryu, Cloud and most definitely Bayonetta weren't getting requested by kids. There isn't any real reason to consider Steve when evidence has shown that what makes kids happy really doesn't seem to influence who Sakurai chooses for Smash.
 
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Steve chances: 15.3%
What I wrote for his day:
As usual I'm not giving high scores to third-party characters, even though I'm confident we'll get at least one as a newcomer in the base game I don't feel like gessing who it might be, it's just that taken together it's unlikely that we'll get none. Anyway, as far as third-parties are concerned I think Steve is not in a really bad position. Minecraft is a cultural phenomenon caliber game with huge appeal and has been released on Wii U and Switch; Sakurai being familiar with the game helps too. The biggest obstacle is that he's literally owned by a rival company, although the fact his game actually released on Nintendo systems makes that less of a deal breaker compared to Banjo Kazooie who haven't appeared on a Nintendo home console since the Rare buyout; could that extend to his appearance in another Nintendo owned game? Maybe, but there's the risk it would benefit Nintendo more than Microsoft if we consider that the later might not like the prospect of people buying a Switch instead of an Xbox One to play as Steve in Smash. These people could potentially buy Minecraft on the Switch, but asides from that would also buy games licensed by Nintendo rather than by Microsoft. The royalties Microsoft would ask for to allow for Minecraft content in Smash would probably be high enough to make up for that.
I don't think much changed about him since last time, asides from the fact we got every previous third-party back and no confirmed third-party newcomer yet. Maybe it's reasonable to assume that third-parties from outside the companies that own the returning ones are less likely for the base game.

Steve want: 25%
What I wrote for his day:
I'm not really familiar with Minecraft, but at least I recognize it's a big name in the video game history, and for that reason having it represented in Smash might be interesting.
Nothing else to add.

Chibi-Robo chances: 3.85%
What I wrote for his day:
An already niche series that got pretty much the reverse fate of Fire Emblem, I think he'd be lucky to be seriously considered for the roster, let alone prioritized. I think he has a decent chance of getting in as an Assist Trophy, if anything.
Sums up my expectations about him pretty well. I only slightly increased his chances because he survived the Assist Trophy massacre; I know Chibi-Robo has never been an Assist Trophy but imo looks like perfect material to be one.

Chibi-Robo want: 10%
What I wrote for his day:
I don't really care.
That was, well, a quick explanation. But I don't really have an interest in the series or in the character, although if he makes it in I guess I wouldn't hate it. The only notable connection I have with him is when I made a robot factory-themed course in Super Mario Maker and he was a Mystery Mushroom costumes I put in the stage.

Banjo-Kazooie prediction: 15.23%
Andy prediction: 8.68%

Nominating:
Returning game mode: Smash Run x10
 

Indefinite Minimum

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Steven the Craftmine
Chance: 30%
Steve is basically the Mario of PC gaming.

Want: 100%
Steve vs. Sans at EVO finals is my dream.

Chibi-Robo

Chance: 5%
Chibi-Robo 2 for Switch never ever.

Want: 100%
Zip-Lash was a good game, you should play it.

Nominations:
Dragonite x5
 
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Steve:
Chance: 15%
One of the only third parties I could imagine making it in. Minecraft dwarves basically every other game franchise in the modern era.

Want: 30%
Like others I don't like the art style(is Steve smiling or has he a goatee? It's hard to tell) but I can't deny Steve is a video game legend at this point. He has move set potential and I'd be largely indifferent to his inclusion as a result. Taking away 20% because of a different pickaxe wielder I want from a cube like world who may manipulate terrain in a similar vein to Steve. If he got in though I'd accept it pretty fast.

Chibi-Robo
Chance: 10%
Limited spaces. His game series did well, he has a lot to work with and he actually did something during the recent years.

Want: 90%
As far as characters go, I like Chibi a lot. I think Ziplash got unfairly panned too, it's not even that bad? Just different from standard Chibi-Robo games.
Chibi is probably my number five Nintendo want right now but he seems like a pipe dream...

Short today due to phone access only.
 

TCT~Phantom

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Holy crap sorry for such a long day, friends bday and they made me walk so much in New York City. Expect a ton of calcs tomorrow since theres gonna be a heat wave and im stuck inside.

Today we got Banjo Kazooie and Andy, tomorrow we got Professor Layton and Skull Kid. Y'all know what to do.

Rate Banjo and Andy, predict layton and sk.
 

CaptainAmerica

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I guess we're going grave-digging for this set of ratings...
Burger King

Chance: 10%
Want: 10%

Still not big on third parties, but at least the Bear and Bird would fit in well enough stylistically. Unfortunately, DHD came in and stole that thunder already, and I don't want them cut.

Still, my childhood was Sonic, not these guys, so meh.

Prediction for Sora: 17.3%
Nom: Mewtwo x5
Obligatory Toy Story joke for Ura


Chance: 10%
Want: 0%

Honestly, I don't really know much about the Advance Wars series beyond the Assist Trophy they had in Brawl (and it's in SSB4? I can't remember ever seeing it...). It has been a long-running series, but it hasn't had a new game since 2008. And Andy himself wasn't even in the last one.

Since the game seems more of a strategy thing, it'd be tough to consider (though I know people have done it). Still, that'd bring him into Captain Falcon's territory of "completely original moveset since the series doesn't really rely on character moves."

Based on where they are now, I really can't see Wars getting more than the assist they already have.

Also, I hafta say that I'm not a fan of the character design. When I think of a commanding officer for a full-out military battle, I think of General Patton, not Andy from Toy Story. If we're in a bright and happy colored world where kids are leading full-scale military invasions, this really does end up looking like a child's fantasy.
Nothing's changed for either.
 

Slyshock

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Banjo and Kazooie

Chance: 45%
This is me putting a lot of eggs into the leak basket. If the leak is either incomplete or inaccurate, then Banjo and Kazooie's odds fall drastically.

Assuming Minecraft has exclusively non-playable representation in Ultimate, then that means Sakurai cut a deal with Microsoft where Minecraft content was a Bomberman-esque bonus rather than the focus. The only other Microsoft-owned property that I've seen highly requested everywhere online is Bear and Bird, perhaps the mother of all 3rd party fan requests. I can believe that Jessie and James weren't "realizable" at the time of the ballot due to backroom politics, but that circumstances may have changed enough between games for that to change.

As far as 3rd parties go, few are as intertwined with Nintendo history as they. 4 out of 5 Banjo-Kazooie games have been released on Nintendo platforms. Abbott and Costello in Smash has been requested since the days of Melee, with the only legal barriers presented as why they couldn't join. With the continued assurance from Phil Spencer that he'd like to see it happen, this may not be as big an issue as it once was.

Despite the fact that Nintendo houses most of the series, they haven't gotten another game since Banjo-Pilot was released on GBA in 2005. Granted, there hasn't been a new Banjo-Kazooie game in general since 2008, but that only further hurts their odds. Statler and Waldorf are significantly less significant than Minecraft's Steve or even exclusives like Halo's Master Chief, and not being particularly relevant hurts 3rd Party characters far more than it does 1st parties. If Microsoft were to push for any character, they would likely choose another unless they had something up their sleeves.

It's worth noting how strange it is that a big 3rd party addition from a direct competitor wouldn't be revealed at E3, regardless of who was chosen. Then again, that could be said of most 3rd party additions, and I do think we'll get some on the base roster. Rare doesn't seem quite as enthusiastic as one would expect from a company waiting on a Smash reveal, with the 20th anniversary celebration seemingly focused on Sea of Thieves just as much as Chip and Dale.

Want: 75%
Love Banjo-Kazooie, adore Banjo-Tooie, fond of Grunty's Revenge. Moveset would be obvious, not necessarily unique among the Smash cast but accurate to the games. Never had that strong a desire to see them in for whatever reason, even when they were relevant. As time goes on and their limelight falls further and further away from the present, it becomes harder to consider Yooka and Laylee as iconic enough to warrant a spot in the first place.

Andy

Chance: 5%
The Wars franchise is extensive, spanning 12 games across 8 systems. First appearing on the Famicom 30 years ago, it predates even Intelligent Systems darling Fire Emblem. The series has always had lofty reception, though sales are a bit harder to find hard data on. As far as I can find, however, it was never that big of a moneymaker. The last game released in 2008 on the DS, and going a decade without so much as a peep of a new entry being planned is concerning. According to one article, the primary reason is that the series is too niche compared to the far larger Fire Emblem.

While Wars did see representation in Brawl, it was only as an Assist Trophy and 6 stickers (one of which was Andy). The transition to Smash 4 cut stickers entirely without adding so much as a Wars song or trophy, leaving the Assist Trophy as the sole reminder the franchise exists. With the franchise being as small as it is, it's unlikely that fans were able to make too big of waves in the ballot. Furthermore, Andy's not even the clear-cut choice for Wars character; The entire first half of the series is Japan-exclusive, which would be more retro than anything from Advance Wars onwards, and Andy was only one protagonist (though the most front and center) in his two games.

Want: 75%
I can't profess to have much of a personal connection with Wars. While I always enjoy seeing a new series receive representation, translating an RTS into a fighting game moveset sounds like quite the uphill battle. Wars might be one of the few franchises more accurately showcased through non-playable means. That being said, if Sakurai could come up with a decent kit, then I'm sure it'd be quite unique.

In addition, I have fond memories of the Isaac/Andy/Ray alliance from the early days of Smash 4 speculation. It'd do my heart good to see an old comrade finally achieve what none of us were able to back then.

Nominations: Nikki x10
 
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Nerd Saga Nate

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Banjo & Kazooie
Chance: 15% -
It's now or never for these two. With ballot results in hand and a push to please the masses, their chances are the highest they've ever been. It's definitely possible Nintendo and Microsoft, who seem to have a much friendlier relationship than before, could have cut a deal to get them in Smash. They've got the Nintendo history to back them up as well; and I seriously doubt we'll get Steve or Master Chief first as Halo has never officially appeared on a Nintendo console and a playable Minecraft character just doesn't seem like something Sakurai would go for.
Want: 75% - I may not personally be attached to them, but I know lots of people who were. These guys are a part of Nintendo's history; it'd be a shame for them not to be included in the ultimate Nintendo crossover.

Andy
Chance: 5% -
The franchise has been dead for years; and the most the series has gotten was a single assist trophy. Unless the series is up for revival sometime soon, I don't see him making it in. Especially since the demand is so minimal for him.
Want: 15% - An Advance Wars character could be cool; but not at the cost of more fan favorite options.

Nominations:
Sakura Shinguji x5
 

Quetzal77

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Banjo Kazooie
Chance: 50% / Want: 10%
It's higher than I'd usually rate them, but... they fit the crowd-pleasing theme of this game. And it's not even impossible since they've been named by their new owners specifically as possible for Smash. It's really only up to Sakurai. They definitely fit in. Again, my low want rating is because I'd rather have certain other third parties more.

Andy
Chance: 0% / Want: 25%
Until there's a new AW game he's out unfortunately. He's not retro enough and there's better retro choices anyway.

Nominations: Medusa x5
 

BluePikmin11

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As far as Andy is concerned, I still remain pessimistic on his chances. With Banjo & Kazooie, I have been a wee bit open on the possibility of it happening with the direction of Ultimate's newcomer selection likely being ballot focused and Vergeben's leaks gaining more credibility, with Minecraft getting some form of representation in Smash. I do not think it will happen though, and I feel that all third-party characters being added in Ultimate will be from globally recognized, uniquely Japanese franchises. I could see Banjo happening via DLC, but not for the base game.

x5 Leon Kennedy
x5 Hanafuda character
 
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CometX-ing

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Banjo Kazooie & Andy

Chances: 60% & 1%
From one Microsoft character to another, one whom I am more inclined to rate highly. Though while am I am inclined to rate Banjo highly, I am honestly hesitant to put him over 50% because while Phil Spencer has said that he is willing to work with Nintendo on getting Banjo in Smash, I doubt it was anything more than lip service or him offering his personal opinion. Phil may be the Head of Xbox, but I highly doubt he can just decide to collaborate with another company without first reporting it to Microsoft's CEO, he's only head of a division and has someone to report to.

If it wasn't for Nintendo and Microsoft seemingly having a better relationship with cross play and Minecrafts existence on the Switch I wouldn't have rated them higher than a 50%. There's also the matter of Banjo not being on a Nintendo console, and even more, being on a rival console. We may have gotten Cloud, but Final Fantasy games still appear on Nintendo consoles, and Square being a third party, they don't have a console they can release Final Fantasy games on exclusively.

Microsoft has the Xbox, and even released the Rare Reply on it exclusively, I don't know if Nintendo will want promote a character owned by a direct competitor, which they still are. Cross play and Minecraft aren't a big thing that shows a massive change in their dynamic, it just shows they are willing to let their player base play together. Unless we see Banjo appear on a Nintendo console again or a influx of Microsoft owned games on Nintendo consoles, I wouldn't get my hopes up.

There is also the matter of Master Chief being Microsofts mascot and not Banjo. But I don't think that would be a real issue because I could see the both of them getting in similar to how both Ryu and Megaman got it. Or simply that Banjo gets in since he appeals more to Nintendo's audience.

I really have nothing to say about Advance Wars, it's been dead for years, barried under the popularity of Fire Emblem. It would be lucky if it got a revival, let alone a character in Smash

Want: 40% & Abstain
I actually haven't played Banjo, and thus don't really care much about their inclusion. I would welcome them but I wouldn't lose my mind over it. I'll probably get shot for this but I honestly have more of a connection with Halo and would be more excited at the prospect of Master Chief getting in as far as Microsoft reps go.

I also never played Advance Wars, so I have no opinion either, honestly though, a lot of the advance wars characters look extremely generic to me, especially Andy so I feel like it would be a waste somewhat.

Nominations:

Primarina x10
 
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Ura

Advance Wars is the new Mother 3
Joined
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Messages
12,124
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Andy; Thy Prodigal Son
For simplicity sake, i'm just going to re-post what I said back in March albeit with a different moveset. I had to remove the pictures in here because they're don't work anymore.

Also want to thank TheRealHeroOfWinds TheRealHeroOfWinds for giving me the idea of the whole Unit Purchasing system for Andy. Admitingly, it was much better than the idea I had before.
Before I begin I want to give you guys my sales pitch for Andy. I know he's not going to have the greatest of chances obviously (thanks daddy Intelligent Systems) but hopefully i'll influence you guys to give him a high want scores. Gonna have to abridge this somewhat because i'm a bit under the weather.

So what's that Advance Wars thing you're so passionate about Crazy Uncle Ura?

If you haven't already, you need to play Advance Wars (any one of the four games released worldwide) and see for yourself how fun and addicting the game is. If you still own a Wii U you can get Advance Wars 1-3 on the Virtual Console. Said alternative would be the best way to support the official release but otherwise you can look to alternative means like finding a used copy or something.

Advance Wars is the critically acclaimed turn-based strategy game made by Intelligent Systems. It's roots goes all the way back to 1988 when the franchise debuted on the NES as Famicom Wars. With that, the franchise is one of Nintendo's most senior franchises ever with only a handful of series that predate Wars (Mario, Zelda, Metroid, Kid Icarus, Punch-Out, and the retro's) and is older than it's fellow TBS series; Fire Emblem. Wars is also a franchise that had perfect attendance on every Nintendo system prior to it's absence in the 2010's (spawning 12 games across the NES, SNES, Game Boy/Colour, Game Boy Advance, Nintendo DS, and the Gamecube). The only exception to this is the N64 which actually had a game in development that got cancelled.

As you can see, this is a franchise with so much historical significance to Nintendo's history.

Despite what people might say, Advance Wars is not a "modern Fire Emblem (technically Fire Emblem is a medieval Advance Wars when you think about it lol). AW plays competently different from it's sister series. For an example, where Fire Emblem puts an emphasis on building relationships between characters and keeping your units alive, Advance Wars is all about that pure strategy experience with all the different kinds of units that can be used. I would also argue that while Fire Emblem is the better of the two in the story/narrative department, Advance Wars' gameplay is way more complex and requires for much better strategic planning. Really, the only two similarities between the two are that they're both TBS games.

It's also a misconception that "units are expendable" in Advance Wars which does have some truth to it but doesn't paint the whole story. In Advance Wars, you want to keep certain units alive on the battlefield to obtain a strategic advantage over your foes. If you just brain dead build a Neo Tank and send it to die a death, then you're not playing the game right. You also have to consider the money aspect of the franchise so naturally the more you spend on a unit (more so the much more expensive ones) you'll have more emphasis to keep those units alive. Your resources are only so limited and you want to make the best decisions that will lead you to victory.

Outside of the game itself, the series has achieved massive critical acclaim from critics all across the spectrum. Advance Wars was also retroactively awarded a perfect 10/10 score from Edge magazine and is in the elite camp of a dozen or two games that have gotten that rating along with Ocarina of Time/Breath of The Wild and Super Mario 64/Galaxy.

Fans have also been clamoring for the series to return as well. rNintendoSwitch did a poll asking what series not yet on the Switch they wanted to see on the console and Wars was voted in the Top 5 with nearly 4,000 votes accounted for (after Smash Bros was revealed of course). Indie titles like Wargroove and Tiny Metal show that interest in the AW genre is still alive and well despite the series' absence.

Okay so what about the goofy, dim-witted wrench kid anyways?

To put it simply, Andy is the face of Wars as a whole. He's the first central character of his franchise and is pretty much to Wars what Marth is to Fire Emblem. It's a common mistake among some people that Max and Sami are on equal footing on Andy when it comes to series importance. This just isn't true. Andy is the main character throughout the entire campaign and in the last AW1 mission he's mandatory to use while Max/Sami are optional if you met certain criteria. Even the Advance Wars logo itself bares Andy's signature wrench as it did for that game and all of the Wars World Trilogy

Yeah, Andy wasn't the main character in every AW game but the other main characters of the franchise don't have as much importance as he does. Jake was the co-protagonist of Dual Stike alongside Rachel and Will was the main character of a game that was a serious departure to the classic style of Advance Wars. Andy himself represents the goofy, cheerful feel of the franchise better than anyone in the series and when it comes down to it he would have the most to offer as a Smash Bros character with his unique wrench gimmick (will explain later).

So now that I talked about Andy's importance to his own franchise, what about the Hyperactive Whiz Kid himself?

Andy at the start of the first Advance Wars is a new CO to the Orange Star Army (Orange Star being one of the four nations in Wars World; the setting in which Advance Wars 1-3 take place). Andy is a bit dim-witted and usually requires the aid of his strategic advisor for the fundamentals of the game. Even despite this, Andy is a bold, friendly, and courageous CO that will do anything to help those around him. Throughout the entire game, Andy is blamed by fellow nations Blue Moon, Yellow Comet, and Green Earth for attacks done on it's nations and the whole story revolves around Andy and co. fighting their way against all these factions. This goes on until it's revealed that it wasn't Andy who did the attacks but rather a clone of Andy created by the otherworldly, diabolical tyrant known as Sturm; the leader of a nation know as Black Hole. In a bid to claim Wars World for himself, Sturm orchestrated all the chaos in order to conquer all the nations amidst their unrest. However, Sturm's plot was discovered and foiled by Andy & co. who teamed together for the final conflict of the game and ended the tyrant's ambition. Andy himself is the central force against Sturm in the final mission and he's the one who takes center position against Sturm (the only CO that's mandatory to use in the game). It's here where his personality truly shows off where despite the odds heavily against him, Andy had none of Sturm's ambitions and motivates everyone to take him head on despite Sonja's plea to escape.

In the sequel; Advance Wars 2: Black Hole Rising, Sturm returns making good on his promise to take revenge on the nations of Wars World. Andy is once again thrust in to battle as he and fellow Orange Star CO's are responsible in liberating their nation from Black Hole's grasp. While AW2 doesn't have a central character the way it did before, Andy is still the most important character of the franchise once again. He's the leading force against Sturm once again in the end of the game and displays his courageous, fearless attitude where he takes Sturm head on despite knowing that doing so could result in his death. Even right at the end of the story, Andy is the only CO among the Allied Nations to stand up to Sturm when the latter attempts to self-destruct and kill all the allied CO's. Just watch the ending of AW2 and see for yourself. Even with Advance Wars not being a story heavy game, Andy's personality clearly shines bright here and we see just how far his courage will take him if it meant the safety of his friends and the world around him.


In Advance Wars: Dual Strike, Andy is not featured in the story as Jake/Rachel take on the mantel of lead protags. Despite this however, it's stated in the story of Dual Strike that Andy became a legend throughout Wars World for his efforts in putting an end to Sturm's ambition on two different occasions. Andy, however remains playable in Dual Strike despite not being apart of the campaign.

Alright that's fine and all but what does Andy bring to Smash Bros that sets himself apart?

Andy; with all the creative attacks he can have implemented with his wrenches and various different units straight from Advance Wars would hands down be the most interesting character from his franchise. Andy also has a very unique aesthetic to him that hasn't been used much in Smash Bros. I guess the closest to him would be Ness in terms of stature but even then Andy would be a bit taller and looks a lot different from the rest of the cast.

Andy's playstyle would be a blend of the summoner archetype along with unique wrench attacks that do more than just act like a sword; but also traps foes, catches items when timed right, and provides Andy great, quick options to use when he fights in close quarters.

Unique Attributes to Andy

Andy has a fund system very similar to how it works in Advance Wars. Andy starts off by having a certain amount of money at the start of the game but he needs to get more funds to use his units. By using his Down Special; Building Capture, Andy can generate funds that will be displayed below his stock icons showing the amount of money he has. The longer the building stays active (it can be destroyed by the opponents), the longer Andy will continue to generate funds. Using these funds, Andy can use his Neutral Special; Unit Purchase and he can buy various different land units by purchasing from a small sub-menu that shows the various different units he can purchase (Tanks, Anti-Air's, etc.)

Additionally, Andy has unique Codecs similar to the ones Snake had in Brawl where he can radio Nell, Max, and Sami about the opponent he;s facing. Nell would give Andy insight on the character he's facing while Max and Sami give additional insight and occasionally mock Andy. Other CO's from Advance Wars also give their insight to the character as well occasionally. Think of it as a blend of Snake's Codecs and Palutena's Guidance.

Melee Attacks

All of Andy's standard attacks are based are unique moves done using his wrenches as mentioned before with some exceptions here and there.

Entrance Animation: Andy comes out of an APC similar to how Lucas enters.

Idle Animation: Andy wields his wrench in his hand while holding his other below him very similar to his official AW2 pose.

Jab: Andy repeatedly jabs his opponents with his wrenches with both hands before giving a final thrust to end the series of jabs. Andy's jab can also be used to catch items with his wrench when timed perfectly as an enemy throws a projectile at him. I.e. if Peach throws her Turnip at Andy he can catch it by simply jabbing at the right time and then can throw it back.

FTilt: Andy quickly lunges his wrench at his foe doing small damage.

UTilt: Andy lunges his wrench in an upward animation to strike foes either on the ground or on the air. Can also be used to juggle opponents as part of a combo.

DTilt: Andy very briefly lunges his wrenches towards his opponents feet trapping them in the ground for a very short amount of time allowing him a follow up move.

Dash Attack: Andy throws one of his wrenches towards the opponent that lunges them in the air depending on how much their damaged.

NAir: Andy gets a rifle similar to the ones carried by Infantry units and fires shooting a few bullets that do mild damage.

FAir: Andy lunges his wrench forward that covers some distance similar to Marth's FAir.

BAir: Andy lunges any foes behind him backwards with his wrenches.

UAir: Like his Up Smash listed below, Andy spins his wrench multiple times in the air to launch his foes in their air for star/screen KO's.

DAir: Similar Cloud's DAir, Andy can use one of his wrenches to spike the opponent downwards sending them crashing to the ground. Great edgeguarding tool.

FSmash: Andy smashes his foes with his wrenches in a 1-2 punch fashion. First he lunges his wrench at his opponent that keeps them in place and then he uses his other wrench to do hefty damage that sends the opponent flying

USmash: Andy lunges his wrench upwards and spins it multiple times launching his foe in the air; similar to how King Dedede's Up Smash works. An effective kill move.

DSmash: Andy lunges his wrench downwards in a 360 motion launching any foes near him in the air. An effective way to punish players who roll frequently.

Grab: Andy grabs his opponent with one of his wrenches in their mid-section; stopping them dead in their tracks.

Running Grab: Same deal only he dashes while doing that.

FThrow: Andy uses a Recon unit to launch his opponent forwards as they keep getting hit for a while by the Recon in motion. Can also be used to hit other enemies also in the way.

BThrow: With his foe still trapped by his wrench, Andy launches his foe backwards with his wrench to send them flying.

UThrow: Andy summons a mech unit to shoot a rocket above him doing considerable damage to his foe that sends them flying upwards.

DThrow: Andy tosses his foe down to the ground and repeatedly smacks them with his wrench; sending them flying.

Specials

Neutral B: Unit Purchase. Using the money Andy has at the start of the match as well as generated from his Down Special; Building Capture, Andy can purchase various different land units from a small sub-menu with varying costs, (i.e. Tanks, Artillery's, Anti-Air's, etc.).

Side B: Bazooka. Referencing the Mech units from Advance Wars, Andy uses a bazooka that fires a quick, rapid missile at the opponent that's both quick and does mild damage (i.e. around 7-9% damage).

Up B: Battle Copter. Andy summons a Battle Copter to not only aid him in recovering to the stage but also striking opponents that are in front of Andy. Controlled for a few seconds (3-5) and is more powerful with Hyper Upgrade.

Down B: Building Capture. Andy captures a city (which he spawns out) and the longer it's used, the more money Andy will have generated that's displayed under his stock icons. It can be destroyed by opponents of course which will cut Andy's funding.

Final Smash: Hyper Upgrade/Megatank. Andy's CO Super Power from Advance Wars. Andy recovers 50% damage (referencing the fact that his CO Super Power heals 5HP to all his units in Advance Wars) and on top of that Andy summons a massive Megatank straight from Advance Wars: Dual Strike that has very powerful, rapid firepower which does massive damage & knockback to anyone that's in the way.

Other

Up Taunt: Andy positions his wrench towards the screen and lets out his signature grin.

Side Taunt: Andy gives the peace sign much like how he does in his winning animation in AW1; grinning all the while.

Down Taunt: Andy checks his tool box for utilities while also scratching his head.

Victory Animation 1: Andy throws his wrench in the air and grabs it, striking his AW2 pose.

Victory Animation 2: Andy climbs on top of an APC and gives the peace sign.

Victory Animation 3: Andy see's an Airport in the distance and asks "What's an airport again?" to the player; breaking the fourth wall as a reference to his infamous line.

Victory Theme

Chance (as a retro newcomer): 50%
Chance (as a standard newcomer):
5%

You guys might think i'm crazy from giving out a 50% score for Andy but this is all on the condition that he's this game's "retro" character. Which I think is very possible actually.
  • Sakurai typically looks to series from the NES era to put in to Smash Bros. Famicom Wars; being one of the more prominent retro series from that era would be a prime candidate for that "retro" role despite Andy himself debuting in the GBA era (there wasn't even a main protag before Andy anyways). It's also one of the few series left from that era to be added in with Takamaru as an AT again.
  • Famicom Wars has it's 30th anniversary this year.
  • The series ties to Fire Emblem which Sakurai could make note of.
  • Advance Wars is a title beloved by "overseas fans" so naturally Andy wouldn't fall in to the same rut Takamaru did with the lack of Western notoriety.
  • If Andy/Sami did remotely well on the Ballot, it could really help Andy's chances and maybe get Sami in as a Snake clone.
Of course if Andy wasn't a "retro" character then I don't think he would stand much of a chance. I just have some confidence in him being picked as said "retro" character this time around. Only time will tell.

Want: 100%

This is the worst kept secret to anyone that remotely knows me. Advance Wars means a lot to me on a sentimental level; particularly the GBA games and I want to see the series thrive once again. Andy in Smash would be the way to garner interest in this series and boost demand for the series to return. On top of that, I feel that this franchise is long overdue for representation in Smash. I would argue it should have been added in Brawl when it met most of Sakurai's criteria for inclusion. But alas that never happened. With this upcoming Smash game, I really hope this is the time where the franchise breaks out of Assist Trophy hell and finally has it's place on the roster.

Here's hoping for my boy one day...

Oh yeah and Banjo lol...

Chance: 15%

Want: 90%

He's not likely for the base roster for sure but he might stand a chance as DLC. Competition from Steve and Master Chief might hurt him but I think both Nintendo and Microsoft are aware of Banjo's popularity in a "Smash context" which is important to consider. On a personal note, I would love to see Banjo in as would a lot of other people that grew up with the classic Rare titles in the SNES/N64 days. His abilities in his games are almost tailored towards a Smash moveset in a way so he's a perfect fit for the franchise. More so than Steve and the Chief IMO.
 
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AquaSol

Smash Apprentice
Joined
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Messages
110
Banjo and Kazooie are definitely classic Nintendo 64-era characters, but I don't see them happening this game. I can't really predict how they did on the ballot, but I think the franchise is more niche than many people realize. The Microsoft relationship looks promising, though. Andy would be a cool character, but his chances seem very slim.

Chances: Banjo and Kazooie @ 35%, Andy @ 10%
Wants: Neither in particular. Banjo and Kazooie are two of the ugliest video game characters I've seen lol. Of course, that's just my opinion, though (and no one else seems to agree).
 

Lord-Zero

Smash Lord
Joined
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Messages
1,740
B-K
Chance: 6%
- They’re requested but I don’t see it happening.
Want: 1%
- I’d rather have a different character.

Andy
Chance: 2%
- Advance Wars has been dead for quite some time. FE was saved and they’re going all-out with it.
Want: 8%
- Not a priority but I wouldn’t mind him much.

Predictions
Professor Layton: 17.4%
Skull Kid: 21.5%

Nominations
Katrielle Layton (Professor Layton) x4
Neptune (Neptunia Series) x1
 
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I'm usually late but today's a special day.

Banjo & Kazooie

Chance: 10%
(Previous score: 1%)


Can't believe I'm even rating them that high.

Basically explained this on Steve's day already. If Microsoft somehow gets a character which I'm not at all confident in, it's between them and Steve in my opinion. If Sakurai wants to go for a modern icon that the newer players know more, he'll pick Steve. If he wants to include the fan favorite with the longer and notable Nintendo history, the bear and bird are in. It just depends on which he'd rather do. If one gets in at all, which may not be completely unrealistic as I thought before, but I'm still shaky on it.

Want: 100%

Just going to repost my reasons from their last day:

The Nintendo 64 was my very first console, and I have a lot of love and appreciation for the system as a direct result. I had a lot of games for it as a kid and have now played almost every major title for the system, and the two Banjo games have always been among my favorites. I love most of Rare's stuff from this era really, but in the case of these two I realized I was into 3D platformers very early on, and these guys delivered. I love the characters, the humor, the worlds, the music, just about everything. I eventually 100%'d both games which is one of my happiest gaming achievements, and I feel both still hold up very well, with Tooie remaining my favorite N64 title.

If you haven't figured it out from that, a Banjo & Kazooie pair is my most wanted newcomer by far. I love them, I love their games, I still pretty much consider them Nintendo characters even though they're not anymore, and they basically have a great moveset made for them already. I realize it will most likely never happen and I'll live with that, but if by some miracle I get my wish and they show up in Smash I will be ok with almost anything else Sakurai does with the game and will happily main the bear and bird without any hesitation.

Andy

Chance: 3%
(Previous score: 5%)


Pretty much same reasons as before with a couple of additional points docked due to limited space. Wars is a big franchise, but it's completely dormant, last game isn't old enough for him to qualify as retro, and Andy likely isn't popular enough to overcome his obstacles. Maybe Wars will keep its assist trophy, but it's unlikely to get more.

Want: 100%

I may have less to say than the above but Wars is still a solid franchise that should probably have more. He'd be a really fun and unique addition too. I'd love to have him in.

Professor Layton prediction: 18.32%
Skull Kid prediction: 30.29%


Nominations: Tails x10
 

andimidna

Smash Master
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Banjo-Kazooie:
I think he’s looking better than he has for a long time. There’s likely at least some working with Microsoft, and there’s no way they don’t know about the fan demand now, but we don’t know how it exactly stands up against the rest of the ballot potentials.
Chance: 24%
Want: 55%

Andy:
This would only happen if they wanted a bunch of newcomers, which isn’t happening. There’s just no way he could be high enough priority from a dead series that isn’t rly retro
Chance: 2%
Want: 40%

Layton pre: 17.5%
Skull Kid pre: 24%

Nominating hanafuda character
 
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Banjo is interesting. First of all, I want to talk about Vergenben leak.

Key details involve, Ridley, No cuts, Ice Climbers, Snake, Simon Belmont, Minecraft content and at least 6 announcements. (I believe that's everything)

Now my understanding is that he has shaky reputation, but despite that, even without this leak, I consider Simon to be the most likely character, Snake is back so Konami is on board and Bomberman is an assist trophy so we know we're getting more than Metal Gear from Konami AND it deconfirms Simon's biggest competition.

So that just leaves the Minecraft content, and they don't specify character. What if they add a Minecraft stage, but a character from a different Microsoft franchise. Banjo and Kazooie got quite a following during the ballot and we know Microsoft is on board and Microsoft and Nintendo have been incredibly buddy buddy lately. This is something I can definitely see happening. If we get Minecraft anything, I think Banjo is right around the corner, even if just as DLC
Chance 35%
But that does not guarantee him, and that's even if we get Minecraft content in the first place. But I do think this is his best chance. Heck, thanks to Minecraft, Banjo is actually on the Switch already.
Want 100%
They're a bit of a pipe dream character but its kinda crazy that I think they have a genuine chance

Andy
Chance 5%
I don't really see it happening, Advance Wars is kinda forgotten by Nintendo and Intelligent Systems.
Want 10%
Not really interested. Sorry.

Prediction
Skull Kid (this will be interesting): 27%
Professor Layton: 12%

Nominate Parabo and Satebo x10
 
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Ura

Advance Wars is the new Mother 3
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To the people who are saying Advance Wars isn't retro...

- The series started in 1988 with Famicom Wars. It didn't start in 2001 with Advance Wars like some people might think.

- It's last entry was an entire decade ago. Current Nintendo hardly resembles what it was back then.

- The trilogy of games which Andy hails from was around 2001-2005 back in the GCN/GBA era. This was before the Wii era even began.

It's not a stretch to think that Sakurai could have the series as this game's "retro" addition based on that with Andy being the one to rep the franchise naturally as the first major protag. It's a series that started off on the NES and one that unlike other retro's has a lot of recognition among western fans.
 
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Impa4Smash

Smash Lord
Joined
Jun 22, 2018
Messages
1,605
Banjo-Kazooie

Chance 70%
I actually think they have a pretty good chance this time. They seem very popular. But most importantly, Nintendo and Microsoft seem to be very friendly as of late. I mean, Banjo was even in the Switch version of Minecraft. A Smash appearance would not be too far fetched. One of the likelier 3rd Party Reps, IMO.

Want 100%
My 2nd most wanted newcomer. Banjo-Kazooie was the first video game I ever played and owned. To have them be in Smash, and back on a Nintendo console would be a dream.


Andy

Chance 5%
Unfortunately Advanced Wars seems to be dead. And I don't think it's "retro" enough to justify his inclusion.

Want 20%
Never a huge fan of Advanced Wars, but his move set would be interesting, and I'd never say no to an unexpected fighter.
 
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Banjo&Kazooie

Chance: 55%

I overrated them last time, but they still have a good shot for a 3rd party. They were one of the big shots on the ballot. You'd always see support for them in discussions. With the project plan finalized in 2015 I'd say they fit the timing more than Steve did. Though that only matters if they're in the base game. With DLC Steve and Master Chief could be major competition for Microsoft newcomers. Also... something, something, westers 3rd party something, something...

Andy

Chance: 0.1%

Advance wars is gone and it's not coming back. And despite me thinking we're getting more newcomers than some people think, I can't see Andy or anyone from AW being among them.

Layton: 19.30%
Skull Kid: 9.41%

Canon Bowser/DK/Diddy voices x10
To my knowledge we didn't hear them at E3 so this nomination is back.
 
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PsychoIncarnate

The Eternal Will of the Swarm
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Banjo Kazooie
Chance: 20%
Want: 100%
Banjo Kazooie was one of my favorite N64 games, and the sequel was good too, even if I didn't actually get to play it until a couple years ago. By a couple years I think it's probably 10 years at this point. I actually think it's possible he could get in the game. I know Microsoft during last gen said that if Nintendo was interesting in using Banjo, they could. They have also had a pretty good relationship lately, even if it's just to crap on Sony. It's also Banjo's anniversary year! Perfect timing for him. However, I don't think that chances are that great.

Andy
Chance: 5%
Want: 0%
I don't think I've ever played an Advance War game. Doesn't look bad, but it needs some modernization if it comes back.

The last Advance Wars that was coming out, but never did, sounded pretty awesome.

It's pretty much a dead series at this point with the popularity of Fire Emblem taking the niche.
 

Diem

Agent of Phaaze
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Banjo Kazooie:

Chance: 50%

Another long-time request that's "soft third-party" like Geno, though not quite as much. Banjo Kazooie's reputation comes primarily from the two N64 games and some GBA games. Outside of that, there's Nuts & Bolts, which only lives in infamy, and Rare Replay, which is just a port of the N64 games on Xbox One. Banjo Kazooie is inextricably tied to Nintendo in terms of history, and that means a lot more than most people seem to be willing to give credit for.

"But he's owned by Microsoft now!"

The head of Xbox, Phil Spencer, has said he'd be totally willing to let Banjo Kazooie be in Smash, and his first comment back in 2015 when the ballot was going on said "I think it would be cool if Banjo was in the next SSB DLC. We've worked with Nintendo on Rare IP before, no issues." On top of that, Nintendo and Microsoft have really gotten along together on crossplay. There's absolutely nothing preventing Nintendo from using Banjo Kazooie in Smash, despite Microsoft's ownership of the property. They're 100% willing to let it happen.

All that said, it comes down to if Sakurai wants it to happen. How much has Banjo Kazooie really been requested over the years? How much support they get in the ballot? Definitely not as much as Ridley or some other characters, but still high up there. It's a coin toss, really. If Sakurai decided to put them in the game, there's nothing stopping it, but that's if he decided to.

Want: 50%

Never played Banjo Kazooie, it doesn't appeal to me at all, but I still think it'd be cool to see them in the game. It'd also open up a direct relationship to Microsoft, which is one step closer to Master Chief showing up, as unlikely as that'd still be.

~~~

All right, I have no idea who this Andy guy is, so I'm gonna abstain from that and talk about Chibi-Robo, since I was late for that. If that's allowed, of course.

CHIBI-ROBO:

Chance: 20%

This one's difficult, as there's a lot of factors that may or may not have this happen. The biggest negative is that Chibi-Robo is still an obscure Nintendo character, more so than Olimar and some others. His one big game was on the Gamecube, and after that he had one DS game, an insubstantial 3DS eShop game, and then 2015's Zip-Lash, which you'll still find stores trying to get rid of to this day. He hasn't been able to find mainstream success, and probably never will, as it's just something that won't have a hugely broad appeal.

However, that's just in the West. In Japan, he's clearly more popular. A second DS game, a direct sequel to the Gamecube game, was only released in Japan, as well as a Wii rerelease of the Gamecube game with updated controls. So he's more popular in Japan than he is in the West, but he's still a character known in the West, so it's not like he's a Japan only character.

Furthermore, while Zip-Lash didn't sell too well, it came out in late 2015. The plan for Smash Ultimate, including all the characters, was finished in December 2015. At that point, Zip-Lash was still fairly recent, so its lack of retail success might not have been apparent enough to have an impact yet. Instead, that timing could line up to help Chibi-Robo get in the game, as he'd have more relevance, and since the game is more action-packed than the previous games, making him a fighter may seem more natural.

Lastly, he's an oddball pick. He's not really a fighter, but neither is Wii Fit Trainer, Duck Hunt, or Mr. Game & Watch. Sakurai is known for taking odd characters that would be challenging to make fighters, and then overcoming that challenge. The same could be done for Chibi-Robo, and so it's definitely not outside of the realm of possibilities. Super Smash Flash 2 already made Chibi-Robo a fighter, using a variety of the items in the GameCube game as attacks, proving that it can be done in a creative way.

But for Smash Ultimate? Where long-time requests like Daisy and Ridley finally make it in? I don't know if Chibi-Robo would make sense, over all the other majorly supported characters with more mainstream clout. I doubt we'll see any oddball picks in Smash Ultimate, and instead due to the tight amount of newcomers allowed, we'll only see the most requested characters, and Chibi-Robo certainly isn't one.

However, compared to Smash 4, he's a bit more relevant at the time of Ultimate's initial planning, and does have a few things going for him, so it's possible. Just not likely.

Want: 100%

If Chibi-Robo made it into Smash, I'd be on a mission to become the best Chibi-Robo player in the world. Don't care if he's F- Tier or not, I'd main him until the day I die. He and Dark Samus are my two most wanted characters. I used my ballot vote on Dark Samus, since Dark Samus makes more sense overall (more Metroid representation, doesn't have to be too radically different from Samus, was a main antagonist of two popular console games, smaller than Ridley, already an Assist Trophy), but if I had a second vote, Chibi-Robo would be it. They're my two top-wanted characters.

The Dark Samus speculation looks promising on that front, so I may get one of my wishes. However, I hope Chibi-Robo is a fighter in Smash someday, be it Ultimate or some future title. But I am willing to accept that it may never happen, since he is an obscure character, and his success record hasn't been the best. Time will tell.
 
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PsychoIncarnate

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Banjo Kazooie:

Chance: 50%

Another long-time request that's "soft third-party" like Geno, though not quite as much. Banjo Kazooie's reputation comes primarily from the two N64 games and some GBA games. Outside of that, there's Nuts & Bolts, which only lives in infamy, and Rare Replay, which is just a port of the N64 games on Xbox One. Banjo Kazooie is inextricably tied to Nintendo in terms of history, and that means a lot more than most people seem to be willing to give credit for.

"But he's owned by Microsoft now!"

The head of Xbox, Phil Spencer, has said he'd be totally willing to let Banjo Kazooie be in Smash, and his first comment back in 2015 when the ballot was going on said "I think it would be cool if Banjo was in the next SSB DLC. We've worked with Nintendo on Rare IP before, no issues." On top of that, Nintendo and Microsoft have really gotten along together on crossplay. There's absolutely nothing preventing Nintendo from using Banjo Kazooie in Smash, despite Microsoft's ownership of the property. They're 100% willing to let it happen.

All that said, it comes down to if Sakurai wants it to happen. How much has Banjo Kazooie really been requested over the years? How much support they get in the ballot? Definitely not as much as Ridley or some other characters, but still high up there. It's a coin toss, really. If Sakurai decided to put them in the game, there's nothing stopping it, but that's if he decided to.

Want: 50%

Never played Banjo Kazooie, it doesn't appeal to me at all, but I still think it'd be cool to see them in the game. It'd also open up a direct relationship to Microsoft, which is one step closer to Master Chief showing up, as unlikely as that'd still be.

~~~

All right, I have no idea who this Andy guy is, so I'm gonna abstain from that and talk about Chibi-Robo, since I was late for that. If that's allowed, of course.

CHIBI-ROBO:

Chance: 20%

This one's difficult, as there's a lot of factors that may or may not have this happen. The biggest negative is that Chibi-Robo is still an obscure Nintendo character, more so than Olimar and some others. His one big game was on the Gamecube, and after that he had one DS game, an insubstantial 3DS eShop game, and then 2015's Zip-Lash, which you'll still find stores trying to get rid of to this day. He hasn't been able to find mainstream success, and probably never will, as it's just something that won't have a hugely broad appeal.

However, that's just in the West. In Japan, he's clearly more popular. A second DS game, a direct sequel to the Gamecube game, was only released in Japan, as well as a Wii rerelease of the Gamecube game with updated controls. So he's more popular in Japan than he is in the West, but he's still a character known in the West, so it's not like he's a Japan only character.

Furthermore, while Zip-Lash didn't sell too well, it came out in late 2015. The plan for Smash Ultimate, including all the characters, was finished in December 2015. At that point, Zip-Lash was still fairly recent, so its lack of retail success might not have been apparent enough to have an impact yet. Instead, that timing could line up to help Chibi-Robo get in the game, as he'd have more relevance, and since the game is more action-packed than the previous games, making him a fighter may seem more natural.

Lastly, he's an oddball pick. He's not really a fighter, but neither is Wii Fit Trainer, Duck Hunt, or Mr. Game & Watch. Sakurai is known for taking odd characters that would be challenging to make fighters, and then overcoming that challenge. The same could be done for Chibi-Robo, and so it's definitely not outside of the realm of possibilities. Super Smash Flash 2 already made Chibi-Robo a fighter, using a variety of the items in the GameCube game as attacks, proving that it can be done in a creative way.

But for Smash Ultimate? Where long-time requests like Daisy and Ridley finally make it in? I don't know if Chibi-Robo would make sense, over all the other majorly supported characters with more mainstream clout. I doubt we'll see any oddball picks in Smash Ultimate, and instead due to the tight amount of newcomers allowed, we'll only see the most requested characters, and Chibi-Robo certainly isn't one.

However, compared to Smash 4, he's a bit more relevant at the time of Ultimate's initial planning, and does have a few things going for him, so it's possible. Just not likely.

Want: 100%

If Chibi-Robo made it into Smash, I'd be on a mission to become the best Chibi-Robo player in the world. Don't care if he's F- Tier or not, I'd main him until the day I die. He and Dark Samus are my two most wanted characters. I used my ballot vote on Dark Samus, since Dark Samus makes more sense overall (more Metroid representation, doesn't have to be too radically different from Samus, was a main antagonist of two popular console games, smaller than Ridley, already an Assist Trophy), but if I had a second vote, Chibi-Robo would be it. They're my two top-wanted characters.

The Dark Samus speculation looks promising on that front, so I may get one of my wishes. However, I hope Chibi-Robo is a fighter in Smash someday, be it Ultimate or some future title. But I am willing to accept that it may never happen, since he is an obscure character, and his success record hasn't been the best. Time will tell.
Andy, not Chibi Robot
 

Sari

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Banjo Kazooie

Chance: 50%. Banjo Kazooie is considered to be one of the most memorable N64 titles and IIRC someone at Microsoft expressed interest at Banjo appearing in Smash. He's easily the best Microsoft rep and has a pretty decent chance compared to other 3rd party characters. Still fairly low though.
Want: 60%. Would fit in really well with the Nintendo cast.

Andy

Chance: 10%. It's been over a decade since the last Advance Wars game so the series really isn't relevant anymore.
Want: 80%. I would love for an AW rep and Andy is easily the best choice (aside from possibly Sami).
 
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First, let’s get the bird and bear out of the way. I don’t really feel confident rating third party characters given what we know, but I do know they have better chances than ****ing Steve. As for want, that one hundo, absolute legends, games are masterpieces, and Nintendo should have freaking bought Rare when they had the chance, end of discussion.

Now with Andy, things are different. There’s no denying that Advance Wars is dormant, but in my opinion, there are three Nintendo franchises I’m expecting to make a comeback any day, and this is one of them (the others are F-Zero and Murasame). Think about it, with the success Intelligent Systems had with Fire Emblem, it seems nuts that they wouldn’t attempt to capitalize on that. There have been statements about the subject, and nothing concrete has come out, so hopes aren’t too high either.
Getting back on topic, the name of the game this time is popularity. Andy has it. Yeah, not as much nowadays as other characters (by the way, the Andy fandom really needs to step up their game. Be more vocal, guys, I know there’s more of you than it appears!), but still good enough. Andy likely did reasonably well in the ballot, at least enough for Sakurai to notice if he’s looking for new series to rep.
There’s also the fact that Sakurai might be looking back to Brawl speculation for inspiration, as that’s the time when most enduring fanbases popped up.
After this dissertation, I’m going to give 13% (aka lower than 15 because I think Isaac beats him in his own category).

Want? 100%
Love the Wars games, in case you didn’t notice by me ranting more about them than freaking Banjo-Kazooie.

Nominations: Well, we got Leon up there so I’m going back to the good ol Ayumi TachibanaX10
 

PsychoIncarnate

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Banjo Kazooie? More liek Banjo Whooie!

If I wanted a Microsoft rep, I'd get someone that's more iconic to them like Master Chief or Clippy
 
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