Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[CaptainAmerica]

Samustoo

Chance: 25%
Want: 0%

Ok, this echo thing is getting annoying - first we hate clones, but then Sakurai tells us they were end-of-production desserts to make us not feel like they took dev time. Now he gives them a new name, reveals one at E3, and suddenly everyone wanted to take their favorite character to Hot Topic for an edgelord makeover to make them an echo since it's the 'next big thing.'

I don't think that 'echoes' in this game are anything more than the Lucy/Pittoo style clones from 4 or the set of clones we had in Melee, just with a different name so we don't hate them at first glance (marketing - it works!). As such, they'll be another character taking a roster slot and will need to be played to unlock stuff. This is different from alternate costumes like Olimar/Alph (or Ike/Ike, or Riddles/Meta-Riddles) where the characters are so similar that they're interchangeable. Plus, we only got Daisy, who is quite popular in her own right - will popularity play a role in selection of echoes?

A lot of people are also suddenly latching onto missing assist trophies. Despite them saying we'll get 50+ and we've only seen about 30 so far, we're jumping to the conclusion that every one we've not seen yet not has incredible odds of being playable. I wouldn't be so quick to say their chances have changed just because they may not be finished yet. Also, Isaac says hello.

Also, are we 100% sure that all of each character's recolors are there? Kinda like how we've been promised a Meta-Ridley alt but Ridley had 8 normal recolors and that's it in the demo? I feel like this is also jumping to conclusions.

Now this isn't to say it all can't happen, but so far I really have to question anyone who's rating anything over a 60% chance, considering the swerve we already got at E3.

I think the roster is in great shape now, and doesn't need to be bloated with a dark clone of each character. I'd sooner leave her out. Besides, DS's story is done. Otherwise, Metroid's finally got the representation it deserves, and we don't need another here. Besides, like I've mentioned I feel echoes should be dessert characters that are quite popular but would be similar to playables, so my picks are Tails (Sonic), Isabelle (Villager), and Impa or Chrom, and I don't need more echoes than that.

Fashion Disasters

Chance: 20%
Want: 0%

Xeno's got a weird timing situation going on. Elma's a bit on the old side, and Rex is too young.

Whether or not Rex had a finalized design in time for the roster, that doesn't leave any time to gauge popularity or anything of the sort. I feel Sakurai's trying to be fanservicey this time, which means that putting in characters who may be popular isn't as safe a bet as it was back for Greninja. They may get a chance to shine with DLC, but I'd wonder if more of those characters who "ugh just because their game gets a Switch port people want them in Smash!" are then also going to be battling them for that as well.

For me: No. Hate the JRPG design, and I've got a different RPG protagonist I want in.

Van Helsing

Chance: 40%
Want: 10%

Well, Vergy's been right so far...

Still, now that we know Konami's willing to play ball, does that mean that Simon's in? I honestly don't have much to say here. Sakurai does like the series, so it does seem plausible, but I wonder how requested he was. And how much is Sakurai versus Fanservice going to play a part in the roster?

Whip user could be fun, but there's a different leather-armored barbarian-esque character I want instead. Gimme Dovahkiin though, and I'll even take Shrek.

Nom: Tails x5

TCT~Phantom : do we really need to rerate that many characters? I feel like most of those haven't really had many changes since the last time from E3, even if they got a new game which would be far too recent to affect the roster at this point, whereas there are some others that may be interesting who never got their chance.

 

[Opossum]

Dark Samus

Chance: 20%
Same I gave Chrom. The costume thing makes it possible.
Want: 15%
No strong feelings.

Simon Belmont

Chance: 99%
I trust Vergeben's source.
Want: 100%
Simon is an NES icon. Whips are neat.

Rex and Pyra

Chance: 50% (zero for base game, lock for DLC)
Big request, over one million sales, and Sakurai loved the game.
Want: 0%
Their designs are an eyesore so I'd rather they not be in.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

CaptainAmerica the rerate safe due to our info and belief on Smash switch being different from smash ultimate. Plenty of these ratings may as well be very inaccurate, rating most of the higher chance and want chars makes sense.

 

[RandomAce]

I’m confused on how this one works. But oh well.

Dark Samus:

Chance: 10%
As an echo fighter, sure, but the removal of her alt doesn’t mean anything, we still don’t have enough information on this game and if she’s back as an AT, which chances are, she most likely is. So I’m keeping her chances low.

Want: 0%
I would rather keep her as an alt. Yeah, she has different abilities and all, but she still is a dark counterpart.

Rex and Pyra:

Chance: 60%
I still think they have a good chance at joining the roster along with Elma. But to put it simply, we don’t know how many newcomers are in the game and how much development time they had into creating newcomers. But seeing as how Sakurai did play Xenoblade and there is like 9 months of development time left after he finished. I think he could finished up creating Rex and Pyra on time.

Want: 70%
They look like interesting fighters with the whole blade mechanics and all. So I would be happy if they joined and would gladly play as them.

Simon Belmont:

Chance: ABSTAIN

Vergeben is basically starting to become this games Gematsu, and Simon is another one of those bandwagon characters. Now although Vergeben did get some things right, there were some things that he was missing such as all the veterans returning, and Daisy’s inclusion. There’s also the fact that the source that leaked Simon could also be wrong unlike his other source so we really don’t know what’s going on. Then we have the ballot, and if any third party makes it into this game, it’s going to becoming for the Fighter Ballot.

So I really don’t consider a Simon a lock unless there’s new info.

Want: 45%

He looks cool with the whip and all, but I don’t have much to say about him. Didn’t play his games, but the Music and stages seem to be something people want in Smash.

But I would rather have Snake as our sole Konami third party.

 

[RawstyleEevee]

Dark Samus 50%

The Prime games are still to this day insanely popular and and Echo fighter is more a bonus character, so I could see Sakurai do it. Also Samus does lack her Dark Samus colour and the AT is missing.

Rex & Pyra 80%

If not in base, they are near guaranteed for DLC, plus Pyra's voice actor did say she's working on a new project, right after they revealed Smash Ultimate, i'm getting Shulk in Smash 4 vibes (something similair happend with his voice actor)

Simon Belmont 95%

I feel Vergeben is this games Gematsu and Sakurai always had fond memories of the Castelvania series, plus if he was able to convince Konami to get Snake back, Sakurai can do anything

Want 90% for all 3

 

[NeonBurrito]

Dark Samus (Echo Fighter)

Chance - 65%

• Samus no longer has her Dark Samus based costume
• The Dark Samus assist trophy was nowhere to be seen
• Lots of requests for Metroid newcomers before Smash 4 (already partially answered with Ridley)

Want - 55%

Having Dark Samus as a echo fighter would kind of be doing a disservice to her character, honestly. However, with Ridley in the game, anything at this point is just icing on top of the cake, when it comes to Metroid representation in Smash.

Rex & Pyra

Chance - 20% (base game)

Considering the amount of Switch-related things we've seen in Smash thus far have been an Odyssey stage, Cappy as a part of Mario's taunts, a BotW stage, as well as Link pulling from his BotW design, I'm inclined to believe that the amount of Switch-related things we get in Smash Ultimate will be rather light. Odyssey had been in development since 2013, BotW had been in development since around the same time, and even still, the amount of content from those games seems rather low.

Considering Xenoblade Chronicles 2 begun development in early 2015, and we don't even know when character designs were finalized, I consider it somewhat unlikely that we'll be seeing these two in the base game. Plus, considering Smash Ultimate seems to be a lot more about fanservice, and a lot of the requests for the duo came about LONG after Ultimate's character roster had been finalized, I don't think we'll see them in the base game.

We really need to decide if DLC is a factor or not in Chance scores. The fact that some people are and some people aren't really changes the vote.

Want - 55%

Huge fan of Xenoblade Chronicles 2, but not so much Rex and Pyra. I don't even have an issue with their designs like a significant amount of people here do, I just find them both to be incredibly dull. Xenoblade Chronicles 2 has such an incredible cast: Nia and Dromarch, Morag and Brighid, Zekeinator and Pandoria, hell, even some later game characters I won't name drop for the sake of people here would be more interesting.

I know they aren't as likely, but I'd sure as hell prefer them over Rex and Pyra. They're just both so boring.

Simon Belmont

Chance - 80%

The Vergeben leak seemed pretty damn legit, and got a whole ton of things right. There's the possibility that we get Gematsu'd again, where Simon Belmont was considered, and not implemented into the game, but with Konami back on board, things look better than ever for this vampire killer.

Want - 80%

Probably the highest Want score I'll give any 3rd party character. Although I kind of wish I could redo my Banjo Want score, I took way too many points off for him not being super iconic and for being western.

I'm not a fan of adding more 3rd parties at all, but I've always felt like with Konami's absence in Smash 4, they're the last big Japanese video game company with a significant relationship to Nintendo to not be in Smash, unless I'm forgetting someone.

Aside from that, Castlevania is a great series. Not my absolute favorite franchise, but I absolutely adore Super Castlevania IV and Symphony of the Night. In terms of Simon himself, we don't have a whip user in Smash either, so he'd certainly bring something new to the table, along with all of his sub-weapons, like his holy water, dagger, cross, axe, etc.

And honestly, Simon would be worth having in Smash just for the music alone.

 

[Troykv]

Dark Samus:

Chance: Abstain

Personally I see pretty much all the Echo Fighter Option as Wild Cards, so I don't want to predict their chances.

Want: 50%

I would be okay with... it... appearing in the game.

Rex & Pyra

Chance: 15% if we're talking about base game (but it evolves to a mindblowing 90% if DLC is taken in consideration... I think we should do something special with these characters).

Rex & Pyra have the problem of being too freaking new for the game's base roster, specially because Smash 4 isn't exactly searching advertising dogs this time... But Rex & Pyra have evolved into favorites from the community, and if it's possible, they will take in consideration; just... I don't think they have enough time to found about their breakout popularity for the base game.

Want: 50%

Their designs are... interesting I'mfanofPyrasbutt, and the mechanic around them it would be fun; now that we have the Ice Climbers and PT in the game; I think Sakurai can now go wilder with these characters' potential.

Simon Belmont

Chance: 50%

Vergeben definitely have helped to gain notoriority (I don't want to believe completely his leak unless his wildest non-Simon leak appears in Smash)... but it also makes us realize many things that ended up being in Simon's side, specially after Smash Ultimate's annoucement... Castlevania is a franchise that Sakurai actually cares and recognize and something important; Konami is willing to work with Smash team with the return of Snake and the Bomberman AT... probably even more...

Want: 60%

I like Castlevania, and it would like to see the franchise represented in Smash.

_________________________

Prediction:

Decidueye: 22.4%
Mimikyu: 23.1%
Lycanroc: 22.5%

_________________-

Nominations:

Leon Kennedy x5

 

[Kitty-chan]

Dark Samus

Chance: 65%
With Echo fighters as a thing, Samus missing her Dark Samus colors, and Dark Samus nyot seen in a AT as of nyao... she is a possibility nyao nya~ That or she'll remian in a AT nya~

Want: 80%
Opinion hasn't changed, I still wanya see her nyapear and shoot pretty blue orbs of death at opponents faces nya~ With Ridley in the game, she's nyao the next Metroid character I wanya see nya~


Rex and Pyra

Chance: 75%
Still seems pretty likely to me nya. Opinion hasn't changed mew~ If nyot base game, than as dlc nya. They do compete with Elma though, so nyo guarantee nya~

Want: 95%
Opinion hasn't changed nya. XC2 was pretty good imo and I'd like to see some of it in smash, either base game or as DLC nya~


Simon Belmont

Chance: 75%
He is an iconic Character and having Snake in the game means Konami shouldn't have much reason to nyot let Sakurai add him nya. Add in the leak which is true so far and he has a decent chance nya.

Want: 65%
With Snake in the game, I nyactually wanya see him a bit more nyao. Seeing a whip slinging vampire hunter vs someone like Snake sounds humorous to me nya~


Nyominations
Tingle: x5

 

[TheFritzle]

Dark Samus:
Chance: 30%
Dark Samus is one of the remaining alts that would fit being an echo fighter, but I'm just not convinced yet. We didn't see their assist trophy, which is of note, but I'm not taking it as solid evidence. We also didn't see a Dark Samus alt color for Samus, but I don't think that means too much. Ridley had a Meta Ridley alt costume in his trailer, but we didn't see it in the demo. I'm still of the mind-set that we're going to get 1-2 more echoes in this game, and Dark Samus is a prime candidate, but none of the supposed evidence has swayed me yet.

Want: 10%
I don't care at all. I'm not interested in Dark Samus being added. There are other characters I'd rather see, and other echoes I'd rather see come first.

Rex & Pyra:
Chance: 75%
I think the only problem in their way is timing. I don't know if they had good enough timing to make it into the base roster. They have an interesting mechanic that I think Sakurai would be interested in exploring. Greninja was added to the plan as a Pokemon from X and Y, so timing may not be the biggest issue. I definitely think they'll be in the game, it's a matter of base game or DLC.

Want: 70%
I put hundreds of hours in Xenoblade 2, and I love the game, but I honestly hate Rex. I think the blade mechanic would make an interesting fighter, so I'd still like to see them, but just not Rex.

Simon Belmont:
Chance: 80%
The Vergeben put him on the map for me, but there is a lot of evidence towards his inclusion. For one, the Vergeben leak seems to be true. I can't say for certain that it's true until I see it, as some parts may be real and some fabricated, but I'm leaning towards real. Sakurai has stated that he views Metroid and Castlevania as revolutionary games, so he may want Simon because of that. Snake is also already in the game as playable, and Bomberman as an assist, so Simon is the only on left.

Want: 50%
I don't really care either way, I've been played Castlevania. I think he would have an interesting playstyle with his whip, but beyond that I don't really care.

 

[Deleted member]

Gonna quote what I said earlier for Dark Samus and Simon Belmont as my thoughts on them haven't changed since:

Dark Samus

Chance: 45%
Want: 65%

The Prime Trilogy, or the original one at least, is old news, and so is Dark Samus.
However, by a combination of circumstances, she still made it as an Assist Trophy in Smash 4, which might make her as a viable candidates for the role of Smash Switch's .
The fact we'd get a 3rd character with 'Samus' in the name might cause some sort of confusion for the more casual audience, even if she'd fight in a lot of different ways than .

Simon Belmont

Chance: 30%
Want: abstain

Not much to say on him again.

For Rex & Pyra however:

Chance: abstain
I've already stated it in the Rex support thread, but their inclusion is a 50/50 case for me.
It all depends if Sakurai has been aware of Xenoblade 2 in time before having decided of the base roster or not.
There are great chances we'd get XC2 elements such as Assist Trophies and musics however.

Want: 90%
I won't lie, Rex isn't my favorite Xenoblade character.
That doesn't mean I hate him however.
In fact the whole main cast of XC2, and also the one from XC1, are likable. And that's also part of why I'm such a fan of this series.
Not to mention all the possibilities the Blade system from his source game could offer on the table.

I update my chance score to 70%.
Game may be too recent but reminder its development started since Xenoblade X wasn't even completed, and Sakurai could pull a new situation.
Not to mention how successful it has been sales-wise and that it keeps being hot news thanks to its Season Pass.

And I also update my want score to 100%.

For the added satisfaction to see all these BS arguments from all their ****talkers around here to get wrecked to death the day they'll be confirmed.

 

[Opossum]

And I also update my want score to 100%.

For the added satisfaction to see all these BS arguments from all their ****talkers around here to get wrecked to death the day they'll be confirmed.

I mean, is potentially being too new for the base game really a BS argument? No need to get so defensive lol.

 

[Sid-cada]

Dark Samus

Chance - 10% - Compared to what we know about echo fighters, there's still a question of who will get in. I think there are a few cues about that, though. We still don't have her AT, and on top of that Samus's Coloration for that was modified to resemble her less. I do think it's a slight hint, but I don't think it's that big. I'll give her 2.5% more than last time.

Want - 50% - Now that Ridley is in, I don't mind.


Rex and Pyra

Chance - 20% - I rated them 50% last time? What was I thinking... anyway, I don't think they are so likely now. Timing is a concern a bit, and with a smaller roster and from how Smash looks to be developing, we are going to have more old facorites instead of the Hot Fresh Thing. That said, they are esentially one of the few big games that is likely to recive a character, I can't rate them too low.

Want - 50% - I don't care for RPGs. I have no atachement to them.


Simon Blemont

Chance - 60% - We have a so-far reputable leak, Konami already having a decent amount of involvement, and one of his biggest compeditors in the company, Bomber Man, out. While I don't want to jump to conclusions here, I do think that he is actually more likely than not. I want to play conservative, and I don't think I will be giving any individual character more than 50% from here on out, but I think I can make an exception this time.

Want - 75% - As a gaming character with some history behind him, I can appreciate his inclusion.

 

[QrowinSP]

Dark Samus

Chance: 70%
Evidence of the missing assist trophy and missing color swap seems pretty compelling. It makes a lot of sense to include her this way, too. Also, ECHO fighters. Heh.

Want: 70%
I love the Prime games and I love her. There's lots they could do to make her feel a bit different from Samus in meaningful ways.

Rex/Pyra

Chance: 25%/90% (Base game/DLC)
Pyra's VA's recent tweet adds some possibility that they are included, but it's just a bit too recent. I'm not sure they'd be included.

Want: 100%
I love Xenoblade Chronicles 2, but what makes these guys one of my top choices is their potential mechanics. The dual system, like with IC abd Rosalina, is very interesting, and their asymetric roles would make it even more interesting. Gettin kills by throwing your sword to Pyra and having her attack would be insane.

Simon Belmont

Chance: 80%
Verge seems like he's onto something, but I'm not 100% sure.

Want: 60%
Not familiar at all with Castlevania, but a whip character sounds very interesting to play.

 

[Gerrothorax]

Dark Samus: Chance: 50%
The fact that Samus dark alt costume was changed from Dark Samus to the phazon suit boosts her chances significantly. There's just no reason to change it if Dark Samus isn't getting a more significant role.
Want: 80%
The Prime Trilogy has been sorely neglected in Smash so adding her as a character would give them some much needed representation.

Simon Belmont: Chance: 80%
The Vergeben leak has been true so far and even if it does turn out to be bull Simon is still a highly requested character from a beloved series. With Snake's return we know Konami is willing to play ball and since the only competition, Bomberman, is an assist trophy he is now the forerunner for a Konami newcomer.
Want: 100%
Hopefully they go with the Conan-esque design.

Abstaining from Rex and Pyra as I don't know or care enough about them.
Nomination: Slippy Toad X5

 

[Runic_SSB]

Dark Samus

Chance: 50%
Ridley shot down its chances of being a regular character, but (Metroid Prime 2) Echoes are a thing, so its chances shot even further up. Also, it was suspiciously absent from the assist trophy line-up at E3.

Want: 35%
No real emotional attachment, but I love the AT and always thought it'd be fun to play as.

Rex & Pyra

Chance: 30%
I'm not lowering my score because of anything that was revealed, nor that stupid facial animation argument. I'm lowering it because I thought about it again, and I'm not so sure they're going to add another Xenoblade character. Apparently Xenoblade games do the FF/FE thing where each one is a whole new world, which means we'll probably never see these two again. XB2 was scheduled to release a year before Ultimate, so they wouldn't really be promoting it like with Roy and Corrin, and it's not a game of particularly large scale or importance to the series like Awakening or Path of Radiance. I could definitely see Sakurai just saying "Shulk already represents the whole series" and leaving it there.

Want: 15%
I haven't played it yet. Xenoblade is next on my series to tackle after I finish Tropical Freeze Switch, Octo Expansion and whatever I buy for the upcoming Summer Sale.

Simon Belmont

Chance: 25%
I'm going to ignore the leak because I don't believe it. Yes, I know that everything else was right, but that could've been insider info about E3 and then just tacking on Simon because he's a safe pick, which I think is the case because literally everything in that leak was revealed at E3 except Simon. His chances are good, since Konami already has their foot in the door and Castlevania is seeing a resurgence in popularity, but they already have Snake as a general Konami rep, so it could go either way.

Want: 10%
I don't like Castlevania.

Decidueye prediction: 20%

Mimikyu prediction: 40%

Lycanroc prediction: 25%

Nominations:
Raiden x5

 

[KingBroly]

Dark Samus
Chances: 65%
While there is a new Prime game in development, we've been told it won't feature Dark Samus. While Dark Samus was an AT in Smash 4, there is a history of characters moving into a playable role (Little Mac), and disappearing entirely (Isaac). Samus' 8th colors from Smash 4 has been changed from a Dark Samus coloring to a Black Light Suit Coloring (Color 7); this is akin to Pit's color 4 in Brawl being removed in favor of adding Dark Pit in Smash 4. It's possible that Samus receives 16 colors like Little Mac had in Smash 4, as we can see that happening in Smash Ultimate with him AND Ridley who had 8 colors in the E3 demo while his Meta Ridley form (Shown in videos) was not present. Dark Samus' AT moves were unlike anything we've seen from Samus thus far, including a rapid fire spam, a shockwave and floating instead of running. Would Dark Samus have her Morph Ball from the end of Prime 3 if made playable? Possibly. At this juncture, I'm leaning more towards her being playable due to the AT absence as well as color change for Samus, unless every character gets an expanded color range this time around.

Want: 30%
I think having another Metroid representative would be cool, as well as having a new character that was made by a Western Developer (Only Diddy Kong has this honor right now). But Dark Samus is not high on my priority list.

Rex and Pyra
Chances: 30%
Given that Xenoblade 2 came out last year, I just don't think enough time has passed for them to be properly planned out. With Sakurai bringing back every single character from all previous Smash games, it likely means that any new characters that have been around for a while will have an easier time being put into the game since Sakurai would've already had time to think about how they play. I think Pokemon Trainer returning has helped the possibility of these characters making it into the game, but not on the initial roster. However, Sakurai has praised the game, and if there's any madman that could shoehorn them into the game quickly, it'd be him.

Want: 5%
I really don't have much of a desire to see them playable over so many that should be playable.

Simon Belmont
Chances: 35%
If Simon were to be playable in Smash Ultimate, he would fit the role of a second playable Konami character, as well as a notable Retro character. While Simon only appeared in 3 Castlevania games through the SNES, Castlevania was a staple of Nintendo back in the 80's and 90's. He also serves the 'Whip' character niche that is sort of there, but also sort of not with Zero Suit Samus. His items like the Knife, Holy Water, Cross and Axe could serve as a proper moveset. But how would he control? Would he be less mobile like in his NES incarnations? Or would he mobile like in Super Castlevania 4 with moonwalking and 8 directional whipping action? I feel like this decision, again, comes down to whether Sakurai knows Castlevania, and Konami wanting more representation in Smash; while Snake is back and Bomberman is an AT, they may not want to open their vault back up anymore.

Want: 80%
Simon is currently sitting high on my list of desired characters. While not as high as some first party characters, he's probably the top 3rd party character that you could put into Smash right now as a unique fighter.

 

[Roberk]

Gotta say, looking over the ratings/reasonings for Chrom gave me a chuckle. Saw a few who said things along the lines of "Chrom taught Lucina how to fight, so being an Ike Echo wouldn't make sense because he wouldn't fight like Lucina!" Lucina is a Marth clone because she used his name as an identity for a little bit in Awakening. She has no way of knowing how a guy from 2,000 something years ago fought. Ike's fighting style is much closer to what Chrom uses and teaches Lucina IMO. Also, the Parallel Falchion and Exalted Falchion are 2-handed like the Ragnell. Lucina is the one out of character.

 

[Strider_Bond00J]

Dark Samus:
Chance: 35%
It's apparently been reported that Dark Samus' Assist Trophy has been absent from the E3 Build. Given that Ridley's finally in the game, she doesn't have much in the way of competition for another Metroid Newcomer. If anything, I think it's likely she'd probably get in under the Echo Fighter treatment.

Want: 70%
I would not be disappointed if she got the Echo Fighter treatment at all.

Rex and Pyra
Chance: 45%
Xenoblade's definitely a series that Nintendo want to keep going for sure. I can imagine we'll get a Xenoblade newcomer, either revealed as a secret character in the next 6 months, or as a potential DLC character. It just depends on when this game started development which just feeds into the question of Elma from Xenoblade Chronicles X from the Wii U era or Rex & Pyra from the more relevant Switch era. If it started after Smash Wii U's development, then it'll probably be Elma for our new Xenoblade character. Or if XB2 was in development and they did another Greninja thing where Monolith said "Hey, take a look at our next Xenoblade game? What do you think?" to Mr. Sakurai.

Want: 85%
*Gets yelled at because I want the characters because I think they'll be a fun addition instead of giving them 0s just because of their designs*
Although Rex's design is a tad ridiculous for anime scuba-gear and Pyra's design is pretty heavy on fan-service, that doesn't matter to me at all. The two of them together would be a very unique fighter, and that's what I want to see in Smash Bros.

Simon Belmont:
Chance: 70%
The good Vampire Hunter has been implicated by Vergeben's rumours, and with Snake coming back, I think if Konami were to get another character, it has to be Simon for sure.

Want: 85%
Although I don't have much in the way of a long connection with the Castlevania series, with all the rumours I've taken a liking to Simon and I hope he gets in.

Also a small confession that's not really related to this thread, but with Ridley joining the roster and the massive roster we're going to get, I'm probably gonna burn out of speculating at some point in this cycle at some point.

I'm just gonna enjoy the hype train and just hope for some of my most wanted to still get in at some point.
And nominating Octoling/Agent 8 Again for X5 noms.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Dark Samus
Chance: 30%
Echoes, eh? Well Dark Samus I hear has a lot of differences from regular ol' Samus. However with the outcry for Ridley for all these years I feel Sakurai MAY throw a bone and include Dark Samus as another bonus for Metroid fans. Dark Samus is weirdly missing from the AT lineup thus far which is curious.

Want: 20%
Okay, I'm not massive on Echoes or clones or whatever we're calling them these days, and honestly there's other characters I'd prefer to see even as Echoes characters such as Impa, Chrom and maybe even Isabelle. I wouldn't be against the inclusion but since I've been informed Dark Samus wouldn't even fit a Samus moveset really outside her look, I'm less keen. Didn't stop Daisy though.

Rex and Pyra
Chance: 20%
Okay, I admit I underestimated Switch titles getting elements in this game. There's a few bits and bobs although realistically they're pretty minor; a few stages such as New Donk City as a stage, Cappy making (very) sporadic appearences in Mario's moveset and a wedding alt for Mario.

However, Mario is the only one who recieved such treatment. Link's look was on the Wii U too, and even the Inklings aren't sporting their Splatoon 2 looks as alts which seems a little odd. Rex and Pyra seem unlikely to me.....on the base roster. DLC however they seem an inevitability.

Want: 50%
I'm a bit inexperienced with Xenoblade and have no strong opinions on them as a result. Elma looks a little cooler I guess and I guess if I had to choose between the two I'd probably side with her first, but I'm sure Rex and Pyra are also worthy additions.

Simon Belmont
Chance: 20%
I don't believe the leak. Simon's still a good choice as Castlevania is a big game that helped shape some of Nintendo's future games and the industry at large.

Want: 50%
That said, I also don't care one way or another. Bomberman would have been the only Konami owned character I'd care about but he's an assist trophy now so...Simon's fine though and I won't complain if he makes it, but he also doesn't wow me that much as a must have. I'm getting more picky about my third parties it seems.

Nominate: Slippy Toad X 5

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

I don't really understand what these days are for, but my want percentages haven't changed.

 

[Delzethin]

Another day, another three rerates. How has this batch fared?

Simon Belmont

Talk about your turnarounds. A lot of people--myself included--weren't very big on Simon's chances at first with how Konami managed to antagonize nearly everyone in the gaming industry within a span of just a couple years. Yet it seems like they're at least attempting to right the ship, and with Snake rejoining the fight and Bomberman lending a hand as a summon, the door is open once more.

Of course, that's not the main reason people are talking about Simon. There's that so-far credible leak hanging around that claims he's in, and nothing's really shot it down so far. Granted, these leaks and rumors can have multiple sources, and situations where one source is correct while another is mistaken or fraudulent--apparently one of the leak's sources may have also claimed a Castlevania compilation was going to be announced that never appeared at E3, so there's a chance that Simon could be wrong despite being right on Ridley, Snake, and the Ice Climbers.

That said, the fact that Konami is involved in Smash again means Simon could have a shot regardless of if Vergeben's source claiming him is illegitimate. And now his in-company competition has a non-playable role, and we do know that Sakurai has a soft spot for Castlevania. With everything in mind, I think the vampire killer is more likely than not now, but I wouldn't call him a lock.

Chance for Simon: 60%

--------------------------------------------------

Rex & Pyra

Much like their quest to reach Elysium, the Smash chances for the Aegis and her Driver aren't as simple as they initially seemed. Concerns have risen over whether Xenoblade 2 was far enough into development for them to have gotten a look when Smash Ultimate's roster was decided on. Gotta admit, I'm impressed by how many people are considering this now!

Things get a little murky once you delve into the details. Xenoblade 2 started development in early 2015, plenty early enough on its own...but we don't know how long it may have taken for the characters and combat mechanics to be finalized. Furthermore, with DLC as an option again, they may not have felt the need to go all in on Rex and Pyra right away. Especially with Xenoblade Chronicles X and its protagonist Elma available as other options from the franchise!

But ultimately...I think we're probably looking at another Greninja situation here. I think Rex and Pyra are more likely than Elma, albeit not by as much as we may have initially thought. Either way, I'll be surprised if we don't get someone from Xenoblade.

Chance for Rex & Pyra: 52.5%

--------------------------------------------------

Dark Samus ε

What a strange timeline this is. We could actually go from 2 Metroid characters to 4 in one game, and then get a 5th through DLC!

Dark Samus was a total afterthought up until a few days ago (for understandable reasons, since Prime 4 will take place after her death). But now echo fighters are a thing, and the eponymous Metroid Prime may revive yet again and sneak into Smash as a clone. And just like Chrom, the absence of her Assist Trophy, combined with the mysterious disappearance of Samus' color based on her, has people wondering.

Honestly, I'm...not really sure what more to say that I didn't already cover last night. We don't know exactly what direction they're going with echo fighters nor how many there are, but based on the current evidence, this corrupt doppelganger seems like one of the more likely ones.

Chance for Dark Samus: 40%

--------------------------------------------------

All three of these are interesting in their own ways, I think. Rex and Pyra are up there among my more wanted newcomers, and I think they could do some interesting stuff with XC2's Affinity mechanic. I'm not particularly invested in Simon, but I think he could be an interesting addition and his moveset practically writes itself. Then Dark Samus has some potential as a clone: Maybe with less overall kill power than the real Samus, but able to use some of her moves to infect opponents with phazon to deal extra damage over time?

Want for Simon: 42.5%
Want for Rex & Pyra: 75%
Want for Dark Samus: 50%

Nominations are the same as last night. Seriously, this would be really cool if it truly is a thing.

Nominating - Concept: Custom Alternate Colors x5

 

[Erimir]

Dark Samus
Echo Fighters have just been introduced. There are two returning ones and one new one. Would they bother using the echo fighter concept for their numbering and introducing it as a new term if there weren't at least one or two other new ones? And given the amount of work going into just bringing back the full roster of Smash characters, the number of full-fledged newcomers probably can't be that high. Adding one or two more echo fighters is a good way to pad the roster without making it unmanageable (and it's already close to unmanageable). There could even be more than two additional echo fighters to reveal.

And what more fitting way to go with the Echo Fighter concept than to add one whose first major appearance was in Metroid Prime 2: Echoes?

Anyway, I'm not actually making a pun-based argument. So aside from her being a good candidate for an echo fighter, there are two main pieces of evidence:
1. Samus has lost her Dark Samus palette swap
2. the Dark Samus AT has not been seen

#2 doesn't necessarily mean anything, as it could simply be that Dark Samus will be an AT, but she just wasn't in the E3 build for whatever reason OR that she simply won't be part of gameplay at all (she'd probably still be a regular trophy I guess). #1 is a stronger piece of evidence, since there wouldn't be much reason to remove that palette if Dark Samus were an AT or removed from the game altogether, and Samus would need to be more clearly distinct from Dark Samus if DS were playable.

Now, I don't think we're getting a ton of echo fighters, but DS is one of the best candidates and at least has some evidence to think she might be in.

Dark Samus chance: 42%
A decent chance, and one of the most likely echo fighters, I think.
Dark Samus want: 60%
I'm fairly indifferent. I don't feel a need for more Samus and I wasn't a huge fan of the character. But I like Metroid getting more love and I like the Prime games.

Rex and Pyra
I don't have a whole lot to base my opinions on, but the Xenoblade series isn't super large so it's not necessarily a shoo-in for an additional rep in the way that a larger hit like Splatoon would be. And being from a fairly recent game means that for a launch character they'd need to have made the decision relatively soon relative to his game's development and release. That doesn't mean it can't happen, it just decreases the likelihood a little bit.

Rex & Pyra chance: 35%
If they add another Xenoblade character, this is probably the most likely, with Elma being a bit less so. Most of the cast of the first game is in Shulk's Final Smash in the first place, and I don't think we'd be getting any other characters from the first game.
Rex & Pyra want: 10%
I actively dislike Pyra's design. And I'd much rather have Riki.

Simon Belmont
Well, this is going to be, by far, the best Simon has ever done on any iteration of RTC, I would think. There are a few things that Simon has going for him at this point...

1. Simon Belmont is just a good candidate in general. He has tons of move set potential and has different ways you could make him unique and interesting. The whip, for one, can be used in a number of ways. Subweapons give plenty of options for specials. If they want a mechanical gimmick, hearts or magic could be a resource for Simon. And Simon/Castlevania also has several moves that would work for a Final Smash (the full screen versions of Holy Cross or Holy Water, for example). And he's a popular candidate for retro representation that has remained relevant, and the Castlevania series has a long history with Nintendo, with many Nintendo-exclusive titles. But that was true before.
2. But what's different now is we know that Konami is working with Nintendo on this again, by allowing Snake to return and the addition of Bomberman. Another thing that's changed is that with the addition of Ryu DLC, we can get multiple 3rd parties from the same company
3. Speaking of Bomberman, Bomberman is another classic Konami character that might've been a more direct competitor with Simon, who is now out of the way.
4. This is the biggest point: the Vergeben leak has mostly been confirmed and it made non-trivial predictions.

Simon Belmont chance: 70%
I'm not convinced that the leak is true. It might've just been chance. And it's certainly possible that it was based off legit information, and he's just wrong about Simon, or the information was out of date or misinterpreted (for example, Simon could be a trophy, or was being considered but ultimately not added), or he or his source told the truth about some things but threw in a lie for fun. But he has a pretty good chance. Even without the leak, the first three points would mean he has a non-negligible chance (say, 10%)
Simon Belmont want: 100%
TBH I've never thought he had more than like a 5% chance before now, so I can't fully believe the leak because it would be so crazy to get Ridley and Simon both added. At this point, he's probably my most wanted character. Great moveset potential, and almost as importantly, Castlevania has dozens of great tracks to add to the game. Dracula's Castle would have one of the best soundtracks of any stage.

Never played a Castlevania, but it would be neat to see him face off with Samus. Make Metroidvania's come full circle, ya know?

Well, he's already fallen in love with Mother Brain...

Relatedly, having Simon, Pit and Mega Man all in the same game would reunite the main protagonists of Captain N: The Game Master. And Mother Brain, the primary antagonist, is in there too... (several other Smash characters, like DK, Link and Zelda made appearances in the show as well).

 

[Troykv]

I don't really understand what these days are for, but my want percentages haven't changed.

Well, you only vote for the Wants, so it makes sense you don't get a lot of these dates.

But these votes are mostly to adjust the chances and expectations with the new standarts that the E3 give us

 

[NintenRob]

Oh? Skull Kid is already in the schedule? Can I change my nominations yesterday to all stages returning x4?


Anyway

Dark Samus
Chance 45%
Unlike Chrom, Samus missing her Dark Samus colour is strange. Ike had to have his colours reorganized. Samus doesn't have any reason for hers to be changed. I think all her other colours are present and appear in the same order except this. Now we know the demo did not have every colour. But it is curious
Want 23%
It's strange. In terms of Metroid characters, I think she's next in line right now. But I always said Ridley was all Metroid really should get. Dark Samus was kinda been retired as a Villain and I feel an Echo fighter wouldn't feel as right for her as other echoes. And unique I feel should be other characters. But I wouldn't really care much if she did get as an Echo.

Simon
Chance 50%
The leak has been pretty spot on so far, but he did emphasize that Ridley was the one he was far more certain on. The presence of Bomberman helps too. It shows more than Metal Gear is getting content
Want 50%
I'd be cool with it. I think I'd be more interested in what he brings with him.

Rex and Pyra
Chance 20%
They're very new. But it's not impossible, but with limited space it's hard to tell. DLC though gives them better shot. But we do have a fair nice bit of 2017 content already with Botw and Odyssey
Want 100%
PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE. So much potential

Nominate Parabo and Satebo x1
All stages returning x4

Prediction
Lycanroc 47%
Decidueye 36%
Mimikyu 42%

 

[MasterWarlord]

Simon Belmont Chance 25%: Nobody would give this character a second glance if not for the leak. Support for him was strongest during the Brawl era, I haven't seen much of anything since or around the ballot era. The scenario for him happening would probably involve Konami demanding an additional character to advertise their new Castlevania project in exchange for allowing Snake's return so Sakurai can have his tagline about everybody returning. It seemed most likely that this character was going to be shown at E3 if he was in. In addition, there was apparently a token /v/ post that predicted both Ridley and Daisy (who Vergeben failed to ever mention) that did not have Simon on it. Daisy is honestly a lot bigger deal to predict than Ridley, absolutely nobody saw that one coming.

Simon Belmont Want 10%: One of the better 3rd parties but I've never played any Castlevania game so I have no attachment. I'm not actively opposed, outside of there being very few truly new characters in Smash Ultimate.

Dark Samus Chance 20%: Chances as a non echo are non existent with Ridley's addition, of course. I really don't think Sakurai's going to care or overthink Dark Samus' abilities very much and is just going to make it blue Samus if he does choose to add her. Melee Ganondorf happened, and it took this long to start to even begin being partially corrected. Sakurai will probably just see blue Samus. It does make some sense to throw her in to go all out with Metroid representation this game, and these 3 """Samuses""" will be better than the 3 Links since they're not actually the same character, they just share a name. The lacking alt color does increase her odds slightly, though is far from a guarantee.

Dark Samus Want 30%: This is strictly a want score for the echo. It's hard to get particularly invested in a blue Samus clone, and if anything it will immortalize her as just being a generic doppelganger as bland as Dark Pit when she can in actuality do so much more. It can be seen as somewhat insulting to the character. Still, it's better than nothing, even if it's not something I can get particularly excited about.

T-Rex and Pyro Chance 30%: These guys are nigh impossible to judge, and I'm not bothering to look up the score I gave them last time. I'm still not sure if the score is supposed to account for them being DLC or not, because these guys have basically no chance of being in the base game because of design document timing, and that chance is now even lower because of very reduced newcomer spots. As DLC, they are certainly a possibility, but with the direction the game is going, forced advertisements might not be enough to get them in.

T-Rex and Pyro Want 0%: Never liked these characters designs or the actual characters behind those designs. Their game's story is seriously bogged down by having T-Rex as the protagonist.

Nominate Fawful x5

 

[colder_than_ice]

Dark Samus
Chance: 25% - The main antagonist of Echoes might become an echo. Got to love irony.
Want: 40%

Rex and Pyra
Chance: 20% - I fear they may have deputed too late to make the base roster.
Want: 50%

Simon Belmont
Chance: 50% - This is mostly just because of the leak.
Want: 60%

Nominations: Shadow the hedgehog x5

 

[Opossum]

Simon Belmont Chance 25%: Nobody would give this character a second glance if not for the leak. Support for him was strongest during the Brawl era, I haven't seen much of anything since or around the ballot era. The scenario for him happening would probably involve Konami demanding an additional character to advertise their new Castlevania project in exchange for allowing Snake's return so Sakurai can have his tagline about everybody returning. It seemed most likely that this character was going to be shown at E3 if he was in. In addition, there was apparently a token /v/ post that predicted both Ridley and Daisy (who Vergeben failed to ever mention) that did not have Simon on it. Daisy is honestly a lot bigger deal to predict than Ridley, absolutely nobody saw that one coming.

Simon Belmont Want 10%: One of the better 3rd parties but I've never played any Castlevania game so I have no attachment. I'm not actively opposed, outside of there being very few truly new characters in Smash Ultimate.

Dark Samus Chance 20%: Chances as a non echo are non existent with Ridley's addition, of course. I really don't think Sakurai's going to care or overthink Dark Samus' abilities very much and is just going to make it blue Samus if he does choose to add her. Melee Ganondorf happened, and it took this long to start to even begin being partially corrected. Sakurai will probably just see blue Samus. It does make some sense to throw her in to go all out with Metroid representation this game, and these 3 """Samuses""" will be better than the 3 Links since they're not actually the same character, they just share a name. The lacking alt color does increase her odds slightly, though is far from a guarantee.

Dark Samus Want 30%: This is strictly a want score for the echo. It's hard to get particularly invested in a blue Samus clone, and if anything it will immortalize her as just being a generic doppelganger as bland as Dark Pit when she can in actuality do so much more. It can be seen as somewhat insulting to the character. Still, it's better than nothing, even if it's not something I can get particularly excited about.

T-Rex and Pyro Chance 30%: These guys are nigh impossible to judge, and I'm not bothering to look up the score I gave them last time. I'm still not sure if the score is supposed to account for them being DLC or not, because these guys have basically no chance of being in the base game because of design document timing, and that chance is now even lower because of very reduced newcomer spots. As DLC, they are certainly a possibility, but with the direction the game is going, forced advertisements might not be enough to get them in.

T-Rex and Pyro Want 0%: Never liked these characters designs or the actual characters behind those designs. Their game's story is seriously bogged down by having T-Rex as the protagonist.

Nominate Fawful x5

To be completely fair, I think the lack of Simon requests during the ballot period was purely due to pessimism based on Konami being themselves. It's likely that people didn't want to get their hopes up after Snake failed to come back.

That and back then the fandom still largely held itself to the one per company "rule," but that only stopped happening after Snake was cut.

Just my view of it anyway.

 

[Lord-Zero]

Simon Belmont

Chance: 9%

- It’s backed up by a leak but who knows at this point.

Want: 1%

- Not really interested.

Dark Samus

Chance: 50%

- Coin toss. The Samus palette swap that had Dark Samus’ palette is mysteriously missing...just like Chrom’s from Ike’s palette swaps and her AT wasn’t present in th E3 build (no, the whole rearranged crap due to PoR Ike and RD Ike sharing the slot isn’t enough. That was one of RD Ikes’s best palette swaps. Robin’s FS wasn’t shown either)...she’s a prime candidate for an Echo Fighter.

Want: 50%

- I wouldn’t mind her at all.

Rex and Pyra

Chance: 21%

- They could have missed the roster-deciding window that was finalized in 2016.

Want: 55%

- They aren’t Nia but they’re good enough.

Predictions

Lycanroc: 39%
Decidueye: 31%
Mimikyu: 29%

Nominations

Katrielle Layton (Professor Layton) x4
Neptune (Neptunia Series) x1

 

[Llort A. Ton]

Dark Samus
Chance-35%
It could make a fine echo, but it seems Echo fighters are gonna be real popular characters. If Daisy is any indicator, at least.

Want-20%
It would be neat seeing the count of Metroid characters double. But, I have no real desire to see DS playable.

Rex & Pyra
Chance- 35%
If Ridley is an indicator of what the newcomers are going to be like, then I think the newcomers will be mostly fan favorites. Unless Sakurai was really into Xenoblade during Smash Ultimate pre production, I think these guys will be held off for DLC.

Want-1%
Never played Xenoblade. No interest in playing it as of now either.

Simon
Chance-45%
It all depends on the Verge leak, which proven some things but has become more and mroe questionable in my eyes as of late.

Want-60%
Was never big on Castlevania, but from what Ive played I can see Simon being a badass character. I have a handful of characters Id rather over him, though.

Scorpion X 1
Thwomp X 4

 

[Kotor]

Rex & Pyra

Chance: 80%
Want: 100%

The main hurdle Rex & Pyra have to go through is time. Regardless of how they get in, I think it's gonna happen.

Simon Belmont

Chance: 60%
Want: 60%

We got Snake back, and Bomberman was added in as an Assist Trophy of all things. Simon Belmont is one of remaining notable 3rd party characters not in Smash. Considering we have Sonic and Bayonetta from Sega, and Mega Man and Ryu from Capcom, why can't we get a second Konami character in the form of Simon? The main thing I saw people used to dismiss any Konami content was that whole debacle between the company and Kojima. Clearly something happened during MGSV's development that Konami had to boot Kojima. Maybe Kojima went overbudget over something. But yeah, Vergeben saying Simon is coming might have some truth to it since Ridley, and Snake and all you guys are in. If Verge ends up being correct overall, it wouldn't be a big deal for not including every newcomer. Looking at the history of Brawl and Smash 4 leaks (excluding ESRB), pieces of the roster were leaked, and putting them all together, you get the complete picture.

Dark Samus

Chance: 15%
Want: 0%

I suppose Dark Samus would be next Metroid newcomer after Ridley. Dark Samus at the very least had a notable role in the Prime Trilogy unlike Sylux. The latter's importance to the Metroid series has been just ifs and maybes. While a lot of characters could work as Echo Fighters, it doesn't mean they'll turn every rejected character into one.

 

[smileMasky]

Simon belmont
chance/want: 50%
Leaks but I have my doubts

Rex
chance: 75%
hes popular and is very relevant could do something like the pokemon trainer and have the girls in the background.

want: 50%
Meh

Dark Samus
chance: 75%
could be an echo in all honesty why would they remove the dark blue and black from regular samus' pallet

want: 50%
same thing meh

nomination: Django x5

 

[A Distant Demon]

Simon Belmont seems pretty likely to me. . .the rest. Toss up.
Simon
Want: :50%
he seems neat. Played a bit of CV NES and SNES after the leak and I imagine the moveset would be fun

Rex and Pyra:
Want: 70
Loved XC2. . .but not a hue fan of Rex. And TBH i cant really imagine him as a unique character fr some reason without completely ignoring any semblance of how he worked, or by being way more work than a single character deserves

Dark Samus: 20%
TBH i've never really cared for DS. The only thing i liked was moveset potential, but I can only see them as an echo at this point. . .and that would be boring as ****. It would also be one of the only cases where I dont prefer the character of a clone to the original so I would have basically no reason to play them.

 

[wildvine47]

Dark Samus

Chance: 70% - The one-two-three punch of Echo Characters, her absence from the AT list, and Samus losing her palette have me convinced she's happening. All three of those line up too perfectly for her not to be the next Echo we see join the roster. Hopefully we see her sooner rather than later, and get an idea of just how different echoes can actually be.

Want: 100% - With Ridley finally playable, Dark Samus moves up to number 5 on my most wanted list, and becomes the last Metroid character I really want to see join the roster. With her relevance period seemingly running out, I'd be more than happy to have her be an Echo if it cements her place on the roster. Even if she's the cloniest of clones (which I don't think she will be), there's always future games for her to be decloned in, but if she misses the roster here, I think she's sunk for good. She'd be the cherry on top of the already delicious cake that is Metroid representation now that Ridley's in. If she's a unique character, then all the better for it, but I'd much rather have her get in as an echo than not at all.

Rex and Pyra: 50% - I mean, they're happening one way or another in my mind. Base roster was maybe too late, but they'd be possibly the strongest DLC contenders. I still think it comes down to a coin flip of whether or not Sakurai had enough advance notice to add them for the base roster. But I feel confident we'll be seeing them eventually.

Want: 60% - I personally don't care about them, but a friend of mine has them as his most wanted, so I'll give em +10 above 50. I got my most wanted, and now I hope he does too.

Simon Belmont

Chance: 95% - Yeah, mark me down as a Vergeben believer. Almost everything he's said has come true by now, with the exception of Simon and the Minecraft content inclusion, which both make sense to hold back for later dates. Even disregarding Vergeben, Simon's two biggest issues were both obliterated by the direct. Konami collaboration is officially back on the table with Snake, and his biggest competition, Bomberman, got thumped hard by the Assist Trophy bat. Add that to Sakurai specifically stating that Castlevania is an important series to him, and Simon's path into the franchise practically writes itself. I fully expect to be able to whip apart foes with him come December.

Want: 90% - Of the third party options, he's easily one of the best additions. Castlevania is a massive franchise that's been near and dear to Nintendo for a long time, and his undoubtedly unique moveset practically writes itself. Add in the bonus of completing the Captain N trio, and you have just about the closest thing you can get to a perfect 3rd party Smash candidate out there. I may not want him AS much as other third party options like Rayman, Banjo, and Scorpion, but he's certainly up there.

Predictions

Decidueye: 37.22%
Lycanroc: 31.54%
Mimikyu: 33.79%

Honestly the most I'm expecting from tomorrow is a general evening out of these scores. Decidueye definitely isn't the shoe-in we all believed it was, but I still believe it's the frontrunner of the three, even if not by much anymore. I'd be surprised if either Mimikyu or Lycanroc overtook it, but they definitely won't be trailing by as much after tomorrow.

Nominations

Scorpion x 5 - I didn't nominate yesterday in my post because for some reason I thought it was on hold due to new scheduling. Would I be able to toss those noms in today? If so, throw my 5 from yesterday at Scorpion for me, and if it's not ok, that's fine too.

 

[Nimbostratus]

Dark Samus
Chance- 30%
Trophy is missing, but so are many others. Palette is missing, but so are many others. Works as an Echo, I guess, but might not be priority. Not as requested as other choices, I imagine, plus they might not focus on an Echo for a series already getting a newcomer. Very possible, but we’ll see.
Want- 10%
Doesn’t interest me enough as a character to get in as either a full newcomer or Echo. I would not be mad if Dark Samus got in, but there is no enthuasism for me.

Simon Belmont
Chance- 50%
Could go either way. Last I heard, Simon was only mentioned by one of Vergeben’s sources, and there are some oddities with that info. Has some merits to get in otherwise, but faces competition for few spots.
Want- 50%
Truly indifferent. It would be somewhat hype to see him, but I’m not actively supporting, either.

Rex & Pyra
Chance- ABSTAIN
Seem too recent to be prioritized, but I haven’t checked the timeline with a fine comb. I don’t want to be flamed, so I’ll hold off.
Want- 15%
No attachment to their game and don’t like their design. Even so, I’ve seen enough now that I do see some potential, so I’ll give a few points.

 

[Quetzal77]

Dark Samus
Chance: 75% / Want: abstain
I think the echo fighters deal ups her chances a lot, but Metroid getting two new reps would be crazy... so crazy Sakurai just might do it.

Rex and Pyra
Chance: 99% / Want: 100%
Honestly, nothing has changed since the first time we rated them. They're still super likely and no I don't think they're too recent to make it in.

Simon Belmont
Chance: 90% / Want: 100%
I believe the leak, and you know what? I'm now fully on board with this. Especially if it means a Castlevania collection/game for the Switch.

Nominations: Neku x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Just for the record the first page has been updated with the updated chance score sheet, a graveyard added for deconfirmed characters and concepts.

 

[VexTheHex]

Dark Samus
Chance - 40%
Her AT and recolor missing is suspicious. She'd be an easy Echo. But Ridley may be enough for Metroid this time around.
Want - 55%
Don't really care to look up my previous Want score, so I'll go with a average one as I speedily write this up. She'd be cool and a decent Echo. Could of been a interesting unique fighter. Villains are cool.

Simon Belmont
Chance - 55%
Sakurai likes the series, Snake is back in showing the companies did work together, and he has the legacy and popularity.
Want - 100%
I don't know much of the series, but i have looked into it in the past. I think that him being back on the table with a highly unique weapon has me hyped for his possibility and what he could bring to the table. I do wonder which version of him they'd go with. But ya, I think he has huge potential.

Rex and Pyra
Chance - 25%
They could pull a Greninja, but I'm not sure the Xenoblade is THAT huge in comparison to Pokemon to pull it off. Elma or someone else could also possibly be chosen in addition.
Want - 12%
Horrible outfits. Pyra looks like the generic waifu bait while looking underage but trying to be adult. And Rex's pant things bother me. Otherwise i guess they are okay.

 

[EricTheGamerman]

Dark Samus

Chance: 40%
Dark Samus would make sense as an Echo character. I don't know if it's necessarily the top contender for an Echo character given the fact that we just got Ridley of all characters in the game, and several much more famous characters seem to be better fits to make Echoes out of first.

Want: 30%
I'm pretty neutral on Dark Samus being in the game. I'd have no problem with it being an Echo character, especially if they gave it a unique sort of style or couple of moves. But it's also just not a character I'd be all that excited to see. I'd probably respond with "neat" and move on.

Rex and Pyra

Chance: 35%
I just think that Xenoblade Chronicles 2 might be too recent of a game to get a full on rep. Their inclusion would make a lot of sense using Smash as the premiere place for advertising Nintendo IPs, but Xenoblade only came out last December. Cappy is basically only given a nod from Super Mario Odyssey in November alongside a New Donk City stage (Which I imagine took some precedent in developing as Odyssey became a critical darling). A whole character from a game that recent doesn't seem too likely to me.

Want: 50-75%
My desire to see these characters incorporated into the game entirely rests on if their inclusion is similarly unique to Shulk or not. I like the idea of Xenoblade representing characters with unique arts abilities. I quite enjoy the Xenoblade series, and do want to see it's representation grow in Smash as well, but I need the characters to do something unique to earn their place as proper new characters.

Simon Belmont:

Chance: 50%
Konami seems very willing to play ball with this Smash seeing as we have Snake back as a character, Bomberman as an assist (RIP), and Shadow Moses back as a stage too. Smash 4 made a lot of progress in incorporating classic Japanese third party characters and series into Smash, so I could see Simon Belmont as the big third party addition to Smash Ultimate. He definitely has a revered status as an icon of early NES gaming.

Want: 100%
Easily one of my most desired newcomers after thinking about it for the past few days. He's one of the few large third party characters I see as entirely deserving to be in Smash. Not only that, but I adore Castlevania and would be incredibly excited by the universe's inclusion in the game. If Bayonetta can fit into Smash, Simon and Dracula's Castle as a stage certainly can as well. His move set based around the whip and special weapons would be unique and entertaining to play with as well.

 

[Parallel_Falchion]

Dark Samus
Chance: 13%
I don't think Dark Samus is popular or relevant enough for Sakurai to bother, even as an echo. Plus, a third Samus. She's not Link.

Want: 30%
I wouldn't mind, but...I don't really care.

Rex & Pyra
Chance: 30%
As everyone else is saying, new information makes this seem less likely.

Want: 0%
But this hasn't changed. Their game even made Shulk and Fiora look bad. Stay away.

Simon Belmont
Chance: 55%
I don't see it as highly likely, but he seems like one of the 3rd party front runners now.

Want: 40%
I've never played a Castlevania game, so I have no personal attachment, but from what I've seen and heard he seems like he'd be a cool, worthy addition. Plus, Samus vs Belmont? Definitely.

Nominate Fire Emblem Three Houses Protagonist x5

 

[SvartWolf]

Dark samus chances: 10%

Dunno how i feel about dark samus as an echo fighter , she would require a lot of animations for making it slightly work :s samus and dark samus may look similar, but they move nothing alike. I honestly think that Sylux would be a way better Samus echo. replace his neutral b for his signature weapon, his down b for his signature bombs, and he is ready. hell he even have his own morphball.

Dark samus could only work as a semiclone at minimum IMO.

want; 5% echo, 50% semiclone.

Rex and Pyra

Chances 10% base game, 60% DLC. Like an ARMS fighter his timing seems off. that being said, there is a tiny chance that he is one of the latest newcomers to be developed, so there is that. I wonder though if with the return of pokemon trainer, there isnt a chance that Rex can fights Blades midmatch? it would be pretty cool (although pretty hard to develope)

Want: Rex alone 2%, Rex and Pyra: 15%, Rex and 2 or 3 blades with a switch mechanic 35%
The various blades could be interesting

Simon Belmont.

Chance, without Verg leak 10%, with Verg leak, 80%

Honestly if we imagine that Verg leak havent happened, i woudl say that simon still got a chance considering how historical important his game were, how tied they were to both nintendo and plataforming genre (smash is a plataforming fighter afterall) and he have a fanbase. Plus that moveset, is frankly exsciting.

with Verg leak, his chances are only 80% considering he can always get "Chromed"... still, looking good.

Want: A LOT. no really, A LOT.

Lets say that Castlevania and smash gotta be my favorite games series. and ive wanted him since brawl showed us it wasnt imposible that being said. i never considered it really pausible, considering that since Brawl Castlevania have been on decline.
though, if bloodstained have proven something, is that there is a plentyful market wanting a new Castlevania, specially on the switch.