Rate Their Chances- Smash Ultimate Day 349: First Party characters after the Fighters Pass

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No time so quick one
Spyro
Chance: 10%
Want: 25%

Mimikyu Prediction: 10.01%

Nominations
Decloned Dark Pit x5
 
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Chance: 15%
Want: 75%

Mimikyu Prediction: 21.01%

Nominate Lloyd Irving x5
 

TCT~Phantom

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Spyro the Dragon
15.72% Chance
47.46% Want




But for real, the scores for Spyro were a surprise to be sure but a welcome one. Many of the 0s were from people who frequently give out zeros in general, but Spyro did far better than I expected in want. Perhaps in a dlc version of the thread Spyro would do even better. What surprised me the most was how close in want he was to Crash. Overall, a pretty solid day. Also any third party that can get a relatively high want score is a victory.


Today we have Mimikyu, the last of the frontrunners for a gen 7 pokemon rep or two. Please rate Mimikyu in chance and want. Also please predict the scores for Funky Kong.

Wyoming Wyoming gets 5 extra noms today for their Spyro prediction.

Also some Mimikyu music.

 
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Pikablu the Third

Chance: 53%
Probably the likeliest Pokémon newcomer, given that he was all over advertising for the game.

Want: 70%
Out of the big three gen 7 newcomers, Mimikyu’s the one I’d rather. He seems pretty popular without feeling bandwagon-y, doesn’t have an anthro design which is a plus, isn’t a starter, and generally doesn’t feel like a pick due to patterns (the new Greninja, the new Lucario, what have you). Basically, he doesn’t tick any of my pet peeves for Pokémon newcomers. I’d prefer other Pokémon like Plusle & Minun or Meowth way way more than him, but I know they’re not happening so I’m getting behind this little guy.

Funky Kong prediction: 2%
How the **** did Funky Kong get up here? Is it just because of the Tropical Freeze mode?

Nominations: Urban ChampX5
 

PeridotGX

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Pikachu

Odds- 40%. I think Decidueye is more likely, but seeing him would be far from a surprise. Him and Lycanroc are tied for 2nd

Want- 55%. I'd prefer Decidueye, but I wouldn't mind Mimikyu

Nominations: Kamek x5
 

Strider_Bond00J

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ピカチュウじゃないよ
ミミッキュだいよ。

Chance: 60%
Mimikyu has come out as one of the break-out stars from Sun/Moon so far. It's got an emotional backstory in that it wants to be just as popular as Pikachu (and definitely earned that popularity in the real world), is frequent in the anime as one of Team Rocket's new Pokémon, and shows up in several games since it's introduction such as an Assist in Pokkén Tournament DX, and I think one of the first Sun/Moon Pokémon to appear in Pokémon Go. Popularity check.

Moveset potential and competition is the main set-back I can see for Mimikyu. It's currently got rivals in the form of Decidueye, Incineroar, Lycanroc and any other Ensemble Darkhorse-esque character from SuMo. Perhaps it could get in as an out-there choice as opposed to Decidueye through clever use of it's Disguise ability, use of shadowy claws and it's stick, and other Ghost and Fairy type attacks in it's repertoire. Or Decidueye might be more easily realisable as a fighter through it's more humanoid-esque design and being a ghostly archer with flight and darkness abilities. Or we could settle on Lycanroc bringing in earth abilities.

Basically, I'd say it all depends on whether Sakurai and the dev-team decide to use it's popularity and make it a fighter, or if it'd be more easier to make it a Poké Ball assist.

Want: 70%
My preference is of course Decidueye for Smash Switch, however I've thought that Mimikyu could be a pretty out-there but interesting fighter. My idea as I mentioned is it having Disguise as sort of a counter-esque attack where it can tank one hit with no damage, gets faster and stronger, but more prone to being launched. ...Hmm... Maybe I should consider a moveset for this little guy some time...

Either way, I'd be pleasantly surprised if Mimikyu got in. Might not be Decidueye, but I'd be satisfied since both of them are my main picks for a SuMo character.

Nomination: Solaire X5
 
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Mimikyu

Chance: 50%
It's gonna be either it, Decidueye, or a Gen 8 mon.

Want: 75%
Love the little guy, he's my second favorite this gen (behind Buzzwole) and my favorite Fairy type so far.

Funky Kong prediction: 35%

Nominations:
Travis Touchdown x5
 

MasterWarlord

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I'll throw in my support for this character. I have really not been a fan of the new generation reps we've got (I forgot Greninja was even in the game honestly), and Decidueye would just be continuing that trend for me. Mimikyu has a lot more character by comparison in addition to being more unique. The game version of Mimikyu portrays a character with an underdog story that is relatable to most, while the anime portrays one that absolutely loathes Pikachu. Both takes on Mimikyu are pretty appealing. I would've liked to see this thing get in Pokken over a sentient sword (even if the moveset turned out alright) or Decidueye.

@FuzzyPickles As far as popularity over Decidueye, it's just all over the place. As far as things to document that popularity, Mimikyu's song has 2.5 million views for the main video on Youtube, and a couple other versions with a million views.

There is also a token Mimikyu hat in Pokemon Go. That might not sound very helpful, but it's the only instance of a Pokemon that's not gens 1-3 appearing in any form.

The anime, as much as we may not like it over here in the West, is still very popular in the East. I would argue Lucario was also only added because of the Anime. Lucario's role is very small in the games, at least back when he was added. The same applies to Jigglypuff.

Mimikyu is also competitively viable, sitting comfortably in OU, while Decidueye is all the way down in RU. That might not sound relevant, but competitive viability basically equates to popularity in this franchise. It helped the otherwise irrelevant Greninja get into Smash 4/garner a fanbase. In a similar case, Mewtwo was cut from Brawl primarily because he was bottom tier.

Mimikyu leeching off of Pikachu's popularity is really going to help it in the long run, since because the character is directly tied to Pikachu it's always going to be somewhat relevant. Gamefreak has made countless Pikachu ripoffs that everyone has almost universally hated. After Pichu, Plusle, Minun, Pachirisu, Emolga, Dedenne, and Togedemaru, they finally got one right.
Want 70%
Chance 50%

Nominate Cranky Kong x5
 
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andimidna

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Oops I missed Spyro
Oh well
How come Dark Samus and Sylux don’t share a day?

Mimikyu:
ive flip flopped on it a couple times hmm
One of my favorites from the game, but I’m not entirely sure I’d feel the same about it in this format
Chance: 20%
Want: 80%
His ability is so cool but I can’t help imagining them just barely referencing it by turning it into a counter lmao
I love it and decidueye/Rowlet though. Both get a plus for not being midnight lycanroc

Funky prediction?: 1.5%
This is like rating the concept of 3 DK newcomers lmao
Except he’d actually have competition with Cranky for that 3rd spot

x5 FEsummoner
 
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Mimikyu

Chance: 15%

Again, the competion is fierce and I have a feeling Mimikyu might be less ''realisable'' compared to other gen 7 mons.

Want: ABSTAIN

Predictions for Funky: 5.56%

Nominations: Leon Kennedy x5
 

CometX-ing

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Mimikyu
Chances: 70%
Anyone remember prior to SuMo's release when Mimikyu was so supported by GF that they even had a song about it? Yeah, I think it's got probably the best chance above basically every other SuMo Pokemon, especially with it's prevalence since the start of the SuMo anime. Still, there is a good chance that Sakurai wouldn't see him as a fighter and instead makes him a Pokeball Pokemon. This I feel is highly likely considering it's ability makes it perfect for that.

P.S. It's literally the second most popular Pokemon. So even if Sakurai was to stave of choosing a Pokemon rep until after the poll. he still has a strong chance of getting added.

Want: 20%
I have no problem with Mimikyu, but again I would rather Primarina be the SuMo rep above all else. I wouldn't be super mad, but I would be pretty disappointed if he got in over her.

Nominations:
Primarina x5
 
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Mimikyu
Chance: 15%
Despite how heavily promoted it's been, Mimikyu doesn't strike me as the Smash pick. A Pokeball for sure, but not playable.

Want: 18%
Not a fan of the Pokemon or the idea of it getting into Smash.

Nominate FE Switch protag x5
 

Slyshock

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Mimikyu

Chance: 20%
All potential Pokémon newcomers are going to have a deceptively low chance score since there's a lot of strong competition for what's likely only one slot, bar a generation 1 or 8 curveball.

Mimikyu's certainly up there in odds, wouldn't say it's the clear frontrunner or anything but it can't be underestimated either. Perhaps it hasn't received quite as much as Lycanroc has in various media, but it's still gotten more than most every other Pokémon this generation and has seen a lot of love in advertising. It's also more popular than most every other Pokémon, including Lycanroc. Not that anyone would've had access to that sort of information beforehand, but if Greninja's popularity was foreseen then perhaps that lightning could strike twice. Considering that Pichu existed and Plusle & Minun were seemingly planned for Brawl, Sakurai seems to have a fondness for Pikachu lookalikes. If he's not tired of the idea, perhaps he'd welcome the opportunity to play around with the living embodiment of a twist on that formula?

Want: 60%
Mimikyu is cute, it looks like Pikachu but it's not a true Pikaclone. It's funny to imagine it as the Ganondorf to Pikachu's Captain Falcon, but its moveset could survive on its own merits. Not especially enthusiastic about any Pokémon, but the series could use another fighter who isn't the "cool" one of its generation.

Nominations: Nikki x5
 

Lampy

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The time has finally come. Let's get some fitting music for this occassion.

Fake Pikachu

Chance: 25%

Before the game was announced, I believed that Mimikyu has the best chance out of any Gen 7 Pokemon if the game happens before Gen 8, but that belief has faded overtime (which might have to do with my increasing optimism over Decidueye’s chances), and since then it’s been reduced to the Ashes of Mount Chimney.

I hear a lot of people call it a “dark horse”, say it’s “slept on”, and stuff like that.
Right off the bat, that is completely false. Mimikyu is frequently mentioned as one of the most likely Gen 7 Pokemon newcomers for Smash, which kinda goes against the whole definition of a “dark horse”.
But that’s not the point, I shall now list all of Mimikyu’s pros and cons while trying to sound as unbiased as I possibly can:

+ Mimikyu is, without a doubt, one of the most promoted Pokemon of Gen 7. Jessie owns it in the anime, there’s a hat based on it in Pokemon GO, and it even got its very own song.
+ Massively overrated popular.
+ Like any Pokemon, Mimikyu has the potential to be unique, as we never had a ghost type Pokemon on the roster before.

- Like with Lycanroc, the roster might’ve been planned when Mimikyu was a mere concept art, therefore potentially negating the first 2 points
- On the same note, Mimikyu’s design doesn’t exactly scream fighter material. Like, I know Sakurai made movesets for unorthodox characters before, but something that everyone seemingly overlooks is that the only “small” Pokemon that ever got in on its own merits was Pikachu - Jigglypuff was an easy semi-clone of Kirby, while Squirtle (and Ivysaur, if you want to count him) was part of a gimmick, and that’s reflected in his moveset (watch RelaxAlax’s video on the Pokemon Trainer if you don’t understand what I mean). Every other Pokemon was bipedal, and I feel that’s because it’s much easier to visualize movesets for humanoid characters. Just look at Greninja - Sakurai made a quick moveset from him based on a concept art. I feel like that’s a major point against Mimikyu that many people overlook.
- And of course, you can’t talk about any Gen 7 Pokemon without mentioning the competition from other ‘Mons.

In conclusion, I believe that unless Mimikyu was planned to be so promoted from the beginning and was specifically suggested to Sakurai, it’s not gonna happen. If anything, Mimikyu is heavily overestimated in my opinion.

...now for the real reason I came here.

Want: 0%.

Honestly, I’d give it a negative score if I could.
If my "subtle" hints, VexTheHex's response from the other day (thank you for spoiling that, BTW -_-), or mere interactions with me, didn’t make that obvious, I don’t know what would.

Obviously I’m gonna give my reasons though.
I’ve never been particularly fond of Mimikyu. When it was leaked in CoroCoro it seemed like I was the only one that wasn’t. Its design never clicked on me (not big on other Pikaclones, but at least they were cute and weren’t purposely made to look like him) and its backstory did nothing for me either.
However, I remained largely indifferent to the Pokemon until I got back into Smash speculation.
Now, believe it or not, Mimikyu for Smash was a concept that dates back to before Sun and Moon’s release. When I saw people talk about it on NintenZone, I just rolled my eyes because I thought it was a half joke, half bandwagon. Flash forward to September of 2017, when I returned to Smashboards from my hiatus, I was surprised when I saw that it’s actually a rather popular idea…
My mentality was initially “Decidueye or death” - I disliked almost every other potential Gen 7 candidate purely because they weren’t Decidueye - that included Mimikyu.
As time went on I became more open-minded and started to be more accepting of some of the other Gen 7 fighters (to the point of being somewhat fond of the idea of Incineroar)... but not Mimikyu, mostly because A. I never liked it, B. The Mimikyu thread literally can’t go a single page without taking a jab at Decidueye, and C. There was one user that felt the need to carry that behavior over to the General Speculation thread.
One day, I had a confrontation with said user, which ended with me rightfully snapping at him. I was so mad that I would’ve become the strongest Sith in the universe if I were a force user... Oh, and it also turned me against Mimikyu for good.

It’s now my least wanted character, and it’s the only inclusion that could potentially kill my hype for the game, because on top of getting Mimikyu - which would mean the guy I yelled at would get his wish - it would also mean that the Gen 7 slot will be taken, and that Decidueye will never have his chance ever again. True, it would also happen with every other non-Decidueye Pokemon, but at least that slot probably wouldn’t be given for a Pokemon I thoroughly despise. I’m genuinely afraid of becoming “the boy who cried Decidueye” if Mimikyu gets in.

I will honestly admit that I might be overreacting, but that’s just how I feel.

Nominating Lara Croft x5
Sorry if I seemingly came here just to rant, but please do keep in mind that these are just my own opinions. If you want Mimikyu in Smash, more power to you - just don’t rub it in my face like that guy did.
 
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Mimikyu chances: 32%
Back when we rated Decidueye I said that I was abstaining from commenting because I felt like I couldn't talk about it without also talking about another specific Pokémon and you guessed it, that's Mimikyu. That's because it seems Decidueye is the most obvious choice for most people and it felt that way for me too until I tried to challenge that assumption and ended up seeing Mimikyu as the frontrunner.

When I played Pokémon Sun I wondered what its implications would be for the next Smash game. I assumed that it would release soon enough for generation 7 to not be outdated, and I felt confident about this when Smash Switch was revealed earlier this year. However with the recent leaks there's a chance that Pokémon Switch might release this year, hurting the chances of all generation 7 candidates. However, I think the chances of getting a generation 7 newcomer a good enough, because the pre-release era of that generation was right in time when Sakurai likely decided the Smash Switch roster, and the release date of the new Pokémon games might be too close to the release of Smash Switch, not to mention I'm not exactly sure it's supposed to be a generation 7 spin-off or a actual new generation. But if it's generation 8, then we might imagine that Sakurai might have had access to conceprt arts back then like he did with Greninja. For this reason I consider the probability of getting a generation VII Pokémon newcomer to be 60% rather than the 75% I gave earlier, and it shows in my Mimikyu rating that's down from my supposed 40% chance rating.

Now let's focus on generation 7. When I played Pokémon Sun I initially supposed that Decidueye was the obvious choice for a playable Pokémon rep, having the most unique design of all fully-evolved starters and being from what seemed to be the most popular starter evolutionary line of the generation in addition to Ash picking Rowlet in the anime. I however wanted to challenge that assumption to make sure I'm confident about my own beliefs, so I asked myself: which generation 7 seemed to be the most likely to be a breakout character on the long run? So I investigated which Pokémon of that generation seemed to be the most popular and talked about in Pokémon circles and I felt like I had to change my opinion about the most qualified potential new Pokémon character, and this is how I came to expect Mimikyu.

Since I changed my mind about which generation 7 Pokémon was the most likely for a Smash candidate things seem to have confirmed my new expectation: with Mimikyu getting plenty of merchandise, focus in the anime (unlike Decidueye which only appeared briefly and it now looks like Ash's Rowlet won't evolve, plus he also got a Litten that evolved into a Torracat and seems likely to evolve into Incineroar — although Mimikyu admittedly competes with the already rated Lycanroc in the anime regard), and being in particular the only Totem-sized gift Pokémon to be given in both Ultra Sun and Ultra Moon. I guess there's the SM pre-release song too, but Magikarp and Slowpoke have their own song too, so it's maybe not the strongest argument.

With Sakurai choosing Greninja on a concept art back in the pre-Smash 4, pre-Gen 6 days there's assumption that he will do the same for generation 7, but the difference is that gen 7 was more advanced at the time the Smash Switch roster was likely decided compared to gen 6 when Smash 4's roster was. For this reason, Sakurai probably had more than mere concept arts to work with, and the anime's plans were probably more advanced at that time than during 2012, making them potentially impact Sakurai's Pokémon choices even more.

Design-wise, Mimikyu seems like a good fit for a Smash fighter. Its body shape, while unique, still seems suited for Smash; it looks more like a Bowser Jr. or Duck Hunt situation with an unconventional but still workable body shape, rather than something like Ridley wose size and proportions made him unable to join the roster. It doesn't have visible arms most of the time, but as shown in attack animations in Pokémon games it can release shadow arms from below its clothe, and would have no issue grabbing items, ledges and characters. The only problem might be that Mimikyu is rather small; it's probably not a huge problem considering Smash Pikachu is already oversized and there's an oversized Mimikyu in canon Pokémon games anyway, but it might become more problematic if the broken Disguise mechanic plays in Smash. For reference Mikimyu's overworld model in Sun and Moon is about the same size as that of Pikachu's, so with the broken Disguise Mimikyu would be twice as small as Pikachu, giving it the smallest hurtbox in the game; although I think it's unlikely, it may be deemed to small to be suited for Smash. Here's the size chart of the first four revealed Pokémon characters in Smash Wii U for reference:


To be fair Greninja's standing on two legs in this picture and appears smaller when also standing on one of its arms.

Speaking about the Disguise, it might inspire a nice feature that would feel like a unique gimmick to make it true to the original character, but not too much of a gimmick to become messy either. I've seen several proposals about how it could work, but here's how I envision it: once per stock, when taking a hit (outside of grabbing attacks) that inflict at least a given amount of damage and/or knockback, if the Disguise is still up, it breaks and Mimikyu doesn't take damage or knockback from that attack. True to the character, it would also have the move Copycat, which imitates the hitbox, damage and knockback of the last move received that was a direct attack (might release several hitboxes if hit by a fast-hitting natural combo), or copy the last non-item projectile it received. In either case it only works if the move was received from an opponent (sorry you can't — or imo shouldn't since I'm not Sakurai — team up Mimikyu and Ganondorf to land an easy Warlock Punch — they patched G&W's ability to absorb hits from partners with Oil Panic so I'm confident the same won't happen to Mimikyu) and it doesn't remember grabbing attacks and throws, plus if you use Copycat you'll have to wait until you take another hit, you can't reflect several times the same move without taking a hit (again I'm not Sakurai but that's how I envision it). And of course a hit absorbed by the Disguise would be able to be used with Copycat, so be careful to inflict enough knockback to break Mimikyu's disguise but not too much or it will be able to reflect that it back to you for a potentially easy KO if you have high damage! To make up for the free protection from Disguise and the small hitbox after it breaks, Mimikyu would be one of the lightest characters in the game with a poor recovery.

Now if Mimikyu doesn't make it I think Decidueye is the next most likely choice with a design that would easily inspire Sakurai the same way Greninja did, and having potential to feel unique thanks to the owl theme who can use feather projectiles, arguably the most unique looking of the final three evolved Alola starters (and the Grass type being nice too). Its moveset would of course include a powerful arrow in the form of Spirit Shackle, a Brave Bird recovery, and several moves that consist of throwing leaves as disjointed attacks. It got a spot in Pokkén as the generation 7 representative, but at the same time it's the game that includes Braixen and not Greninja, so like Mimikyu's song it's perhaps not the strongest argument either.

Mimikyu want: 70%
At first I expected and wanted Decidueye to be playable in the next Smash, as it felt perfectly suited and was — and still is — my favorite Pokémon introduced in generation 7. Then I challenged my own expectations and ended up considering Mimikyu as the most likely choice instead. At that time I wasn't happy about it, I was expecting Mimikyu but still wanting Decidueye for Smash, but I eventually warmed up to the idea of playable Mimikyu in Smash, as Decidueye's playable appearance in Pokkén felt satisfying enough and personal preference asides Mimikyu feels more like a modern Pokémon mascot than Decidueye to me. I also feel like Mimikyu might be a more unique character if its Disguise is well implemented, while on the other hand I'm expecting Decidueye to have yet another counter in the form of Sucker Punch. Not that I would complain about Decidueye, it would still be great to play as in Smash I think, and even though I don't expect it at all — nor do I think it's the best thing to do roster representation wise — I'd love to have both Decidueye and Mimikyu playable. Either way, a playable generation 7 Pokémon in this new Smash is one of the few things I really want.

New Funky Mode prediction: 23.48%

Nominating:
Returning game mode: Smash Run x3
Returning fighter: Corrin x2

Edit: I now it's very late (more than three weeks later) but I wanted to fix an horrible typo
 
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fogbadge

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mimikyu

chances: id say 75% what with him being one of the most popular gen 7 pokemon and loads of moveset potential i can see him as a very decent possibility

want: 100% i love the little guy and love to have him in smash
 
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Mimikyu
Chance 44%
After Decidueye, I think Mimikyu is most likely. But predicting the Pokemon is hard

Want 70%
It's a cool Pokemon, no complaints. I'd like Decidueye though

Prediction... Funky Kong? ?
6.5%

Nominate Lara Croft x5
 
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Mimikyu

Chance: 35%
Want: 25%

It'd be an interesting :4pikachu: retake, but Gen 7 is getting old now, and it also suffers from other likely candidates like Decidueye.


Noms:
Music: Final Destination (Ver. 2) x5

Funky Kong prediction: 42.21%
 
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Mimikyu - The little guy who lures you into his secret closet and ambushes you in the dark room once you learn his terrible secret.

Chance - 70%
Egh, it feels weird going that high, but I guess I shouldn't feel weird when some Newcomers were scoring 80%'s and higher on other days.

- Huge popularity
- Totem Pokemon in the game with a rather unique encounter
- Anime importance, Jessie's pokemon
- Unique gimmick
- Pokemon Go advertised him in Halloween

While there is the argument that they may not of known who of the Pokemon would be hits, there was clearly already weight put into Mimikyu by both his makers and the fandom's positive reception of him making him a very large possibility for the Gen 7 rep.

Want - 100%

While I like Decidueye to a degree. I have to say the Ghost type has been one of my favorite types. And you know who kind of blows in terms of being a Ghost rep? Decidueye. He is a awesome Grass rep, but he just really lacks in terms of being one of the ghouls. So there is a part of me rooting for an actual spooky Ghost Pokemon over Owl Robin Hood.

Also let's take a moment to talk about how GENIUS Mimikyu is. Every generation we get the Pikachu knock offs. And guess what? They all fail overall to ever be remotely that popular. None of them stood out to me besides Emolga from my own personal tastes. But then Mimikyu happens. The Pikachu knock off that is a literal twist on it. Mimikyu wants to be loved and liked Pikachu, but it's doomed to be the abomination living in the shadows. Mimikyu literally is what he is meant to be and what the others failures were. And you know what happened? The fandom LOVES him. He was successful and became huge for being the embodiment of what the company had been trying and failing to do over years of Pokemon. Love it.

Nominations 5x Pikmin Newcomer
 
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Cosmic77

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Mimikyu

Chance: 30%
I want to point something out to everyone. I've been seeing a lot of, "Oh, Mimikyu is SUPER popular. That's why I think it's so likely." Keep in mind that Sakurai could've chosen the Pokemon rep as early as summer 2016, way before Game Freak knew which Pokemon would actually end up popular. Using popularity to make a case for Mimikyu is fine, but it shouldn't be your only point, especially since there's no guarantee there was enough time for it to play a factor in Sakurai's decision. Marketing through promotions, anime, and TCG (stuff that was planned and can be predicted) are all good examples of other reasons why Mimikyu could be likely.

I don't know about Mimikyu. In just about every aspect, it gets beaten by either Decidueye or Lycanroc. Decidueye has the most obvious moveset potential and the most fan support, while Lycanroc has gotten more promotion (more important in anime, bigger push in TCG, third form used to promote US/UM). Out of the three top contenders, Mimikyu seems to sit right smack in the middle in most comparisons. The only thing it blatantly beats the other three in is popularity, but even then, Decidueye and Lycanroc aren't far behind.

Just depends on Sakurai. It could definitely work if he wants it to, but it also seems like Mimikyu would be more likely to be chosen as a Pokeball item than Decidueye or Lycanroc.

Want: 10%
I used to want it more, but I've gotten attached to Lycanroc now.

I'd be lying if I told you I wouldn't be disappointed if Mimikyu is the next Pokemon rep. The truth is, between Decidueye, Mimikyu, and Lycanroc, I'd say Mimikyu is probably the Pokemon I want the least. I'm all for Sakurai picking those unorthodox characters, but Mimikyu just isn't my cup of tea.

Funky Kong prediction: 19.6%

Nominations: Mipha x5 (Just gotta hang in there a little while longer).
 
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Joined
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parent's basment
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Mimikyu

Chance: 40%
I've seen this little guy a lot. He's been heavily promoted. But I think they are just going to take a gen 7 or 8 Pokémon. But I could be wrong.

Want: 55%
Could be interesting to play as.

Nomination Django x5
 

Wyoming

Connery, Sean
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Mimikyu:

Chance: 20%
I think the Pokemon for this game is insanely difficult to predict. This Pokemon certainly has a decent chance considering its role as a totem Pokemon, used in marketing, being in Pokken as a support Pokemon, and having a role in the anime. They are certainly pushing this thing and that's something we can't ignore.

The problem I have with it is the following: it has no limbs or its own mouth to use. How will it use attacks or hold items? I know its ghost/fairy - typings full of special moves to use so I can somewhat see a special moveset based around that, but the rest? I usually don't care for "how will this character hold items, swim, etc.?" but for this character it is a genuine question. If it had the psychic typing it could maneuver out of that problem, but I don't think the ghost typing can give it that kind of privilege.

Want: 40%
Out of the viable Pokemon options, I find this one to be the least interesting but it has its own quirks to make it stand out enough.

Funky: 21.3%

Nominate Cranky Kong x6, Lara Croft x4
 
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Delzethin

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A few days ago, I typed a long, essay-length analysis on a character I've felt is highly underrated due to the Smash fanbase looking at the wrong things.

Today, I'm here for the opposite. And to practice my persuasive writing skills, but...you get the idea.

Brace yourselves.

Mimikyu, Eldritch Doppelganger

So to start, let no one say Mimikyu isn't popular. The whole angle of wanting to be loved to the point of actively mimicking a series icon pulled at people's heartstrings from the start. There's been an outpouring of support for the little guy from the moment that first image from Corocoro leaked, and when Smash speculation started anew, it carried right over. While much of the fanbase is still just penciling in Decidueye and not bothering to look further--you saw my thoughts on that in my Lycanroc analysis--many of those who do look past the surface have seen Mimikyu's popularity and taken notice. Surely, being the fan darling would propel it into the roster and beyond, right?

Well...thing is, fan popularity ain't all it's cracked up to be when it comes to newcomers. For proof, just look back to every previous Smash game--several fan favorites have always been left out, and characters we'd never thought to consider found their way in. I know, it feels comforting and a little empowering to feel like we the fans have some final say in who matters and who doesn't, but it grossly misunderstands the intent of the roster to begin with: Sakurai isn't some almighty judge nor some renegade we must browbeat into submitting to our demands, he's just looking for the most compelling new additions.

Truth is, popularity is fickle, ever-changing, and unreliable, something we've also seen repeatedly in Smash's history. Wolf went from resented at Brawl's release for "stealing a slot" from more interesting options (even within his own series!) to a prodigal son several years later who was "more deserving" than other DLC picks you may or may not have felt less of a connection to. Bayonetta went from being seen as the fans' champion in early 2016 to an unstoppable harbinger of death whose players were fated to break the metagame over their knees and steamroll everything without the need to exert any effort whatsoever. Seriously, think of how many people want Bayo gone in Smash Switch, even though the grim fate that half the competitive side of the fandom foretold never actually happened.

The fans' stance on characters can change at the drop of a hat, and Sakurai and the Smash devs know this. They keep an eye on who is popular at the moment, but it's merely one of many factors they consider, and unlike what so much of this community believes, it's far from the most important. Think of who we'd have missed out on if popularity was such a hardline requirement. What if Ness and his strange psychic powers never got people interested in the Mother series? What if Captain Falcon was still just some guy from some niche racer, and never became Nintendo's premier memetic badass?

This is why I don't buy the hype surrounding Mimikyu. While popularity factors into other characters' chances to an extent, it feels like so much of the argument for Mimkyu is reliant on its popularity, as if being popular enough renders any flaws and issues irrelevant. It doesn't, and that's something we saw firsthand just a few years ago with Chrom's shelving and the Ice Climbers' absence...so why do so many still assume enough popularity can fix a character's problems now?

That said...I won't deny that Mimikyu is prominent, potentially enough to have been among the Gen 7 'mons considered for Smash Switch. But from there comes another obstacle:
But it’s not just that – going back to just what we talked about, what’s unique about them? Where do they fit in with the rest of everything else? What do they have? It’s a combination of those things.
As we've seen several times before, character concepts are an integral part of the selection process. No one gets the all clear unless the Smash team has a finished concept in mind for them and knows they will both function well and stand out. Its contemporaries Decidueye and Lycanroc shine here, but this is where Mimikyu begins to falter.

Being a Ghost/Fairy type, Mimikyu tends toward supernatural and occult abilities with a small amount of magic and trickery mixed in. Ghost moves in Smash so far have been portrayed using darkness, and so it stands to think Mimikyu would have a strong affinity for that...which is a problem, since we already have characters like Ganondorf and Mewtwo who dabble in that element. While that isn't a deal breaker on its own, when you have two rivals who both focus on elements that are completely untouched on the current roster...it's not a good look, and it doesn't help you feel as unique in comparison.

Moreover, there's the matter of Mimikyu's body...or the thing it wears...or...well, you get the idea. While non-bipedal builds aren't unheard of in Smash, it can make things less practical, and there needs to be assurance that the character in question can interact with all aspects of the game in ways believable enough that you can at least handwave the minutiae. I've personally addressed this issue with Lycanroc before, how the Dusk form's quadrupedal build could still viably interact with items, but Mimikyu's doll covering that must stay on and reliance on two shadowy appendages and a wooden false tail it has limited control over present a great deal more difficulty building around to ensure it can move, emote, perform all 23 or so attacks that make up a moveset, and roll with anything that can happen in the chaos of a free-for-all. I've seen a few moveset ideas here and there, but...none have really had that spark that made me think the character would truly work, and several of them felt overly...contrived, for lack of a better word. Sure, the Disguise ability could make for an interesting mechanic that'd protect it from a hit occasionally, but one gimmick does not a moveset make.

But what really frustrates me is how I've seen people note these issues and just...wave them off, convinced that Mimikyu is popular enough that "Sakurai will make it work". Thing is, we've never seen this in action--we even saw it notably not happen during Smash 4 development when the Ice Climbers' popularity wasn't able to save them from performance issues in the 3DS version. That's what I think a lot of the people who notice Mimikyu are overlooking: being very popular does not solve or remove the obstacles in its path. While that's not an immediate deal breaker, it presents a great deal of question marks that are much less numerous for Decidueye and Lycanroc.

In summary, we have a character whose popularity cannot be relied on, who is prominent enough to have probably been considered, but who doesn't quite offer as much uniqueness as two of its counterparts while also presenting more hurdles to jump than either. I wouldn't rule out the chance that the Smash devs came up with something truly inspiring that sold them, but...as it stands, Mimikyu seems more destined to be a Poké Ball summon and trophy. Which is still a decent consolation prize, all things considered.

Chance: 25%

If you couldn't tell by the tone up above, I have a chip on my shoulder when it comes to this one.

You already know I don't like it when characters are written off by speculators who don't bother to look past the surface, but it actually frustrates me more when fan popularity is presented as this grand deciding factor in who "deserves" a chance in the spotlight. As someone who's almost never had a bandwagon backing me ever, someone who was more often the target of the "popularity" talk growing up than its benefactor, it raises my hackles to see it keep happening in so many other places. Because of that...seeing the "Fan Approved Choice™️" get in right now would feel like a punch to the gut, especially if I end up wrong about the chance of two Gen 7 mons getting in and it does directly come at the expense of the literal underdog I've been personally pulling for who has only recently started getting noticed.

Am I taking this too personally? Probably. But as it stands, seeing this one join the fight would just leave a bad taste in my mouth.

Want: 20%



Nominations: FE Heroes Summoner (aka Kiran) x5
 
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Quetzal77

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Mimikyu
Chance: 20%
Being promoted by TPC is really... the biggest factor for its inclusion. Yeah popularity as well, but Decidueye and Lycanroc have both of those things as well and are way easier to envision as playable characters than Mimikyu. I just can't see it. Maybe Sakurai can, but I'm not convinced at this point he'd go for Mimikyu when there's, arguably, "bigger" and more obvious choices.

Want: 0%
Honestly, it feels more like a Pokeball summon, which isn't a diss. Not every Pokemon can get in as playable even if they're popular, and in this case the other two top candidates seem better suited to me.

Funky: 38.6%
Nominations: Pyra/Mythra (without Rex) x5
 
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ZeDiglett
The Pikachu Clone People Like Because It's a Pikachu Clone

Chance: 5%
Sorry, but popularity is all it's got, and that wouldn't have mattered when the roster was decided. Of the oft-discussed Gen 7 mons, Mimikyu seems the least realizable to me - even less so than Lycanroc, whom I question how it would grab and carry items and the like. Its figure just doesn't lend itself towards a fighting game. It's much more likely as a Pokeball in my book, which I'd be okay with.

Want: 0%
Can you say "overrated"? I sure can.

Okay, maybe I was a bit hard on Lycanroc to give him a zero in want last time considering Mimikyu is a Pokemon I'd actually be upset to see playable. There are just so many better options for a new Pokemon in the Alolan starters, Lycanroc, Tapu Koko, Buzzwole, hell, even Zeraora. And that's just if we want to stay current. Any of these other Mons would be miles easier to implement than Mimikyu due to their more conventional builds and, for the most part, more unique and diverse potential movesets. Moveset-wise, the most unique thing Mimikyu has going for it is Disguise, a one-time Substitute. Riveting.

I'm sorry, but I'm with L Lampy on this one; I do not like Mimikyu, and frankly, I don't think I ever will. I find its design repulsive, I absolutely despise playing against it, and I don't really like how it's gained this massive following just because... it wants to be popular. Not to be rude, but y'all really took the bait on this one. This Pokemon isn't just overrated, it was designed to be overrated. Its popularity reeks of bandwagon and fad, quite frankly, and I question if Mimikyu will be in the same spot it is now by the time the next Smash rolls around. It's almost certainly a short-sighted flavor of the month choice, and not one that would pay off like Greninja did.

In short, I don't like Mimikyu. I don't like its backstory (it wants to be as "popular" as Pikachu, a Pokemon that fans are sick of at this point, so it did so by becoming yet another Pikachu clone, except this time it's brilliant because reasons), I don't like its design, I don't think it would work well in Smash, and I despise how overrated it's become. Mimikyu makes the likes of Lycanroc, whom I've expressed disdain for in the past, look incredibly appealing by comparison, and I'd take pretty much any other current Pokemon in stride over Mimikyu. Hell, give me Pyukumuku, at least that'd give me a good laugh.

Funky Prediction: 17.54%

Nominating Tingle x5
 
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Mimikyu

One of the most popular pokemon of its generation and has been used in advertisments in things like Go and the Anime while also being close to the design :4pikachu: however since Brawl we have not gotten Pokemon that don't look like a charcter that cna hold its own in a fight. And while he mauy have a unique moveset I feel that Deciduie would be the first Pokemon to come out then maybe him if we get another Pokemon this time around

chance at 32%

he seems fun and I wouldn't mind seeing him in smash
want at 65%

funkey kong 7.6%

Nominating labo man x4
arlo (the muppet) x1
 
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Koopaul

Smash Lord
Joined
Oct 29, 2013
Messages
1,748
Mimikyu
Chance: 50%
On the fence on this one. Being a promoted Pokemon boosts it up. My chance scores are not reflective of what Pokemon it's going up against but all characters in general. Things like Mike Jones. So he has a pretty good chance compared to those kinds of characters.
Want: 30%
It would certainly be a very unique Pokemon. Visually and mechanically. I'd prefer Mimikyu over most other Sun and Moon Pokemon... But at this point there are so many Pokemon my desire to see more is waning.

Predictions for Funky Kong
Chance: 8%
Want: 20%

Nominations:
Barbara ×2
Concept: Canon Bowser/DK/Diddy voice ×2
Slime ×1
 

CaptainAmerica

Smash Champion
Joined
Aug 21, 2014
Messages
2,833
Location
New York
Not Pikachu

Chance: 25%
Want: 15%

Now here's a Pokémon that's been played up.

Mimi was one of the first reveals made for the Sun/Moon era, and those are always the ones used in marketing. Unlike the other Pika-clones, though, Mimi's a bit different. Each of the others has been some small electric-type rat that nobody ends us caring about, but Mimi's backstory/Pokédex entry really did a number on fans, and he's stuck because of it.

Honestly, I think Mimi's been the most marketed Pokémon of the generation, and if it weren't for Decidueye, I think he'd be a lock.

However, there are still some hits against him that aren't based on his competition. Namely that his design does call to mind a Pokéball summon more than a playable fighter - as they did in Pokken. He doesn't - visibly at least - have arms, but the ghost-thing underneath could handle items, but the sheet also couldn't emote, which is a downer (again, that's not unheard of based on everyone in the 3DS either).

In all, I'd prefer Deci to be the Pokémon. He's got more potential as a fighter.

And finally, the fact that he looks like Pikachu. NOW JUST TO FORESTALL ARGUMENTS LIKE YESTERDAY, THIS ISN'T ME PERSONALLY, but there will be grumbling based on this fact. I can however see Sakurai putting in much more time to make Pikachu and Mimikyu unique than he would for characters like Riddles and Spyro (or Ganondorf and Captain Falcon). But yeah, it's still an issue. Also, if I'm the 'Ridley Fanboy' of this thread, then he needs a much better mascot...I've actually never even played a Metroid game, and I really only support Ridley because I feel he's overdue.

Now, you know what would be awesome out of a Pokéball summon? Using the disguises. I thought Mimikyu looked awesome at first, and then I saw this fanart making a bunch of different cloak variations based on other Pokémon. Once the game came out and it was just Pika...I was a bit disappointed. I feel like Mimi should definitely have loads of variations if it's just trying to feel loved; after all, not everyone likes Pikachu (I'm finally warming up to him after years of being a kid and hating the one that's rubbed in your face)

So here's my this-will-take-insane-dev-time-but-be-totally-worth-it idea: You throw out a Pokéball and it's Mimikyu. It immediately disguises itself as the character who threw the ball. Yes, that means a Mimikyu version for each playable character. Also, that stick needs to be something - the swordsmen are easy or anything with a tail, but maybe make it like a parasol for Peach, or a rapier for Zelda (even if she doesn't have it in her moveset) etc. Mimi will then move around a bit and hit characters with the stick for low damage and flinching, sort of like Eevee of Fletchling's been doing. BUT - if someone hits it enough to break the disguise's neck...it acts like one of the Cuccos - it'll home in on the person who did it, and then hit them with Let's Snuggle Forever, which deals incredible damage and knockback.

Prediction for Funky: 7.4%
Nom: Somthing from Skyrim x5
 

ZeroSoul

Zerp
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Mimikyu
Chances: 15%
I'm not even convinced Gen 7 will get a Pokemon this game, Mimikyu is popular but at the same time has to face massive competition from Decidueye, Lycanroc, Incineroar, etc but I also view it as likely that is has to compete with ridiculously popular and iconic Pokemon like Eevee and Gengar, yeah, the roster was likely decided before this rumor started up, but here's the thing, anyone could have predicted Kanto would be next in line, The Pokemon Company has been producing a noticeably high amount of merchandise for Kanto Pokemon during Gen 7 for a long time, they planned this early. If Sakurai/Newdirectorperson went to the Pokemon Company for a newcomer, they might have already told him about it waaaaay back when. If it turns out Sakurai/Newdirectorperson A. doesn't care about Gen representation and B. heard about the new games early, I don't think Mimikyu stands much of a chance vs the likes of Eevee and friends.

Want: 9%
I don't care much either way.

Predictions: Funky Kong 11%
Nominations: Gooey x 5
 

-crump-

Smash Lord
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Switch FC
SW-4366-1207-0908
Mimikyu

Chance: 55%
Mimikyu is one of the most popular Pokémon in recent history, and Nintendo/TPC are obviously aware of it. This little spooky boy has appeared in every form of media that TPC has put out in recent history, and with how people are eating it up, I could very realistically see them offering it to Sakurai for his next choice.

If think “uniqueness”comes before popularity, or at least the assumption of popularity, in Pokémon selection, you’re kidding yourself. And “uniqueness” isn’t even a problem, because Mimikyu is unique as ****. Everything from his design to his moveset potential to his size relative to other Pokémon in the game... Mimikyu would absolutely be a creative project for Sakurai.

Want: 99%
Guess I’m being contrarian here, oh well.

Mimikyu is by and large my favorite Pokémon since Gen 4. Ever since it’s design got shown in CoroCoro, I have been in love with the little thing. It’s creative, adorable, and it would definitely be a unique addition to the game. Yes, Deciduye and Lycanroc could all bring something unique to the table, but Mimikyu’s design


(And to be completely honest, one of the reasons I want Mimikyu so much is because I‘ve begun to find Decidueye’s fanbase incredibly obnoxious since Smash speculation started)

Noms:
Tingle x5
 
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Troykv

Smash Master
Joined
Jan 24, 2015
Messages
3,778
Mimikyu ... I don't have idea how to rate this little guy; he is along wirh Decidueye, Incineroar and Lycanroc one of the potential Gen 7 Characters... But Mimikyu is such in messy and conflictive sittuation...

+ He is popular; and in fact, was designed to be popular
+ Promoted heavily; like the Starters and Rockroff/Lycanroc
+ He appears a lot in the anime
+ His body shape is rare and can be used for some creative moveset... But

- His body shape is also one of his biggest problems; isn't just unique... Its completely unortodox for a fighting game.
- He also has Heavy competition as I show before.

So... Nah; I'm outta here (?)

Chance and Want: Abstain

____________________

Prediction:

(New) Funky Kong (Mode): 10.4%

Nominations:

Decloned Dark Pit x3
Breidablik item x2
 
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Al-kīmiyā'

Smash the State
Premium
Joined
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Messages
2,093
Mimikyu want: 0% (3-10*)

Nominations:

Neku x5

* Indicates percentage penalty for potentially taking a slot from most wanted characters
 
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FamicomDisk

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Mar 17, 2018
Messages
356
Mimikyu

Chance: 30%

I feel like Mimikyu has got a shot. It’s a popular Pokémon from Gen 7, and lots of people seem to want him in Smash. He also seems like somewhat of an oddball character to me - the majority of people seem to expect Decidueye, and while Mimikyu is also a pretty popular request, I feel like his inclusion would be more surprising. At the same time, I don’t know that popularity alone is enough to get him in. I can definitely see him getting in, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he didn’t. I also don’t know how practical he’d be - supposedly, anyone who sees what he looks like under the costume dies. So how would that work in a fast paced fighting game with a bunch of jumping around? I also think that Ze Diglett Ze Diglett might be right in thinking that Mimikyu’s popularity will fade, so if he’s not in the base roster, then I don’t think he’ll be DLC.

Want: 40%
I like Mimikyu. He’s not my favorite Pokémon, and he’s not my least favorite Pokémon. I think he’s cute, but I’m not really pushing for him.

-----

Funky Kong chance prediction: 16.38%

Nomination:

DeMille x5
 
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Erureido

Smash Hero
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Mimikyu

Chance: 50%

One of the most likely candidates to represent Alola. It has prominence in the anime as being Jessie's main Pokemon right now, it's a Totem Pokemon in S/M/US/UM, it got its own Z-move, and it even has its own song. It's also gots of popularity behind its back and a decent following for its potential inclusion as a Smash fighter. The only real issue I can see with it is what other Alola Pokemon face: competition. With Decidueye, Incineroar, Lycanroc, Tapu Koko, and other popular Alola Pokemon out and about, it's got to compete with the likes of them for that one Alola slot.

Want: 5%

Admittedly, I'm not a big fan of Mimikyu. It's design never really did much for me despite being innovative. The only thing I like about Mimikyu is its competitive potential where Disguise makes a great ability for all those Battle Tree and online battles. Thus, I don't have much interest seeing it in Smash. I do see its unique potential as a Smash fighter, especially if Sakurai can find a way to make Disguise work, so that's where the 5% comes from.

------

Predictions

Funky Kong (Donkey Kong): 18.79%

That new Tropical Freeze will definitely help him, but competition with the likes of K. Rool and Dixie Kong will hold him back.

------

Nominations

Corrin (Fire Emblem): x5
 

Sid-cada

Smash Lord
Joined
Jan 19, 2013
Messages
1,480
Mimikyu

Chance - 13.5% - Okay, it was popular, but I'm not quite certain if they have what it takes. The ghost-typing is it's biggest draw, and it's very popular and promoted, but it's hard to say if it will get selected. It's concept is a bit out there, and while the ghost-powers are cool, it has direct competition with Decidueye, and it's not quite as obvious how it would attack for many of it's moves. If Sakurai sees something he may go for it, but I'm not certain.

Want - 60% - I find him cute and the concept of ghost powers is cool, but there are better Pokemon out there.


Predictions

Funky Kong - 13.45% - A new funky mode may make him seem more likely, but we will see...


Nominations

Masked Dedede Final Smash X5
 
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