Rate Their Chances- Smash Ultimate Day 349: First Party characters after the Fighters Pass

MasterWarlord

Smash Champion
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Crocodilopolis/White King’s Paradise
Greninja Chance 85%: Unfortunately it seems like Mewtwo will be on the chopping block before he is, and I don't see Mewtwo getting removed either.

Greninja Want 0%: I hate gen 6 and I hate this Pokemon. His tongue is physically impossible and cannot be retracted into his mouth. I also don't even like ninjas, blasphemous, I know. Froakie and Frogadier promised me some kind of scholarly wizard frog, not a ninja. The ripoff of him from Rivals of Aether is a much better character of this archetype.

Nominate Cranky Kong x5
 
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Erureido

Smash Hero
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Erureido
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We need some appropriate music for today.


Perfect!

Greninja

Chance: 90%

Smash Switch's development began back in 2016, the same year when Greninja was at its peak in terms of fame and promotion. It was the most advertised generation 6 Pokemon, evident with the inclusion of Ash-Greninja in the anime that even made its way into Sun and Moon thanks to the demo. Greninja is also an extremely popular Pokemon, evident by the fact it won a Japanese Pokemon popularity poll back in 2016. I feel like it has a pretty good chance to come back.

Want: 100%

Greninja is my second favorite Pokemon in existence. I've been a fan since I first saw it from XY-leaks, and I only grew to like it when I used it as my starter in my playthrough of Y. It's got an awesome design, and it makes a great special sweeper too.

I still remember the day when Greninja was revealed for Smash 4. I remember watching that trailer thinking, "Oh, it's going to be Mewtwo from those hands and the charging attack. Welp, no surprise, but man, I was hoping for something new." And then Greninja was revealed to be the new fighter, and I reacted with pure shock and excitement. While I supported Greninja for Smash at the time, I didn't think Greninja would be added, so you can only imagine how exciting Greninja's reveal was for me when it happened. It was at that moment I finally found a character I would truly look forward to playing.

Cut to Smash 4's release and all my subsequent times playing it, and Greninja has become my main in that game. I have a blast using it with its quick and agile attacks that can lead to some interesting combos, as well as those neat special attacks. Smash 4 was the game where Greninja solidified itself as my second favorite Pokemon (back in the early days of XY, Greninja was tied with Aegislash when it came to my favorite Kalos Pokemon).

If there's one veteran that I'll feel hurt learning that it got the axe, it's this one. I'm all in to see Greninja return in. In fact, I'd love to see Ash-Greninja become its new Final Smash. I'm one of the few that really likes Ash-Greninja's design, and I'd love to see it fire that giant flaming shuriken for its ultimate attack just like it does in the anime!

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Predictions

Mewtwo (Pokemon): 84.37%

Being one of the most iconic and popular Pokemon will surely lead to those high scores, but his treatment when he was cut from Brawl and being added as DLC in Smash 4 will prevent the scores from being too high.

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Nominations

Corrin (Fire Emblem): x5
 
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Lord-Zero

Smash Lord
Joined
Aug 2, 2015
Messages
1,740
Greninja

Chance: 99%

- It’s still quite popular and it’s unique enough to warrant its stay.

Want: 98%

- I like it.

Prediction

Mewtwo: 90%

Nominations

Katrielle Layton (Professor Layton) x3
Starfy (The Legendary Starfy) x2
 

Arcanir

An old friend evolved
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Getting geared up for the 20th
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Shoryu91
Greninja
Chance: 90%
There's not a lot of reason to cut the frog. As mentioned before, he was at his peak popularity in 2016, scoring the highest out of any Pokémon in Japan (where TCPi values popularity the most), he was at his most relevant as the anime was going through the Ash-Greninja arc during that time, and he does seem to have strong reception among Smash fans as he's one of the newcomers that most fans seem to be the most positive about. The only reason I don't put him at 100% is that Mewtwo shows that popularity/prominence doesn't prevent a cut, and if he's unlucky he may fall victim to time constraints if push comes to shove.

Want: 90%
Still one of my favorite Pokémon to play as in Smash.

Nomination: Lycanroc x5
 

Lampy

Smash Hero
Joined
Feb 15, 2016
Messages
5,596
Location
salt land
3DS FC
0963-0942-7168
Greninja

Chance: 70%
Instead of writing a detailed analysis, im just gonna list all of the things greninja has going for and against him.

Pros:
  • Was voted the most popular pokemon in japan (iirc it was in like 2016 but i could be wrong)
  • Got his own special form in the anime that also appeared in the games
  • Speaking of the anime, he was ashs main pokemon and had plot importance (i think??? idk havent watched the anime)
  • Sakurai doesnt like cuts
  • Is a unique veteran

Cons:
  • Pokemon are frequent victims to cuts and hes in a lower poisition than most pokemon vets (aside from debatably jigglypuff)
  • Tpci might decide that they dont want to promote him anymore and push him aside in favor of a new pokemon
  • Might become a victim to time constraints

Overall seems pretty safe to me. The reason i gave him a 70% rating and not higher is bc im a pessimist in nature.

Want:
IMG_20180506_184844.jpg

(100%)
Ok so let me tell you a story.
I wasnt actually a nintendo fan until i got my 3ds in 2014. One of the first games i got on it was pokemon y, which was also my first pokemon game.
Like in any pokemon game i had to choose my one pokemon out of 3. And my choice was - you guessed it - froakie. Said froakie eventually became a greninja, and while i wasnt initially super fond of the design its grown on me overtime, and now i consider greninja to be my second favorite pokemon of all time as well as my favorite starter.
While my favorite pokemon in general is chandelure, greninja has more significance to me personally and thus im more attached to it.
When i found out greninja was in smash - which was about 2 months after i played my first pokemon game - 13 year old me lost his mind. I was already planning on getting it because the concept of smash appealed to me, but greninjas inclusion made me 10x more hyped for it. When i got the game i even mained him, tho i dropped him after a while bc playing as the same character over and over got stale, but i still do play as him from time to time.
What matters to me however is that hes there in playable form. Even if i dont play as him hes still my favorite addition in smash history and i would be devestated if he were ever cut.
Its also worth noting that my current most wanted character is decidueye, who is right below greninja in my favorite pokemon list. So yeah, contrary to the misconception that all of decidueyes support is a ""forced bandwagon"", i support decidueye because i genuinely love it, which is also the reason why my favorite inclusion in smash history is greninja. Idk if it makes sense, but i felt like it was worth mentioning.
If you want greninja cut, by all means... fight me. I dare you.

Rick/Kine/Coo x5
Prolly gonna be my last post for a while, unfortunately
 
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Al-kīmiyā'

Smash the State
Premium
Joined
Apr 22, 2010
Messages
2,093
Greninja want: 75% (85-10*)

I love his design, and he's one of only two ninja (excepting potential newcomers), and I kind of think Sheik should be cut.

Nominations:

FE Spear User x5

* Indicates percentage penalty for potentially taking a slot from most wanted characters
 

TheFritzle

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Jul 18, 2014
Messages
104
Greninja Chance:
95%

I don't know why they would cut him. He may not be that relevant, but most of the Pokemon in Smash aren't that relevant. Lucario wasn't cut from Brawl to 4, so I don't see why a unique Pokemon who represents water type starters would get cut.

Greninja Want:
100%

Didn't play him much in 4, but I don't want any character to get cut.

Mewtwo Prediction:
93.48%

Nominations:
Sylux x5
 

Koopaul

Smash Lord
Joined
Oct 29, 2013
Messages
1,747
Greninja
Chance: 90%
Like Lucas before, I highly suspect we will get no cuts unless this game was built from the ground up... Which I doubt it was.

Want: 10%
Pokemon come and. Go their popularity and star power moves with the tides of time. And while that may be true with almost a lot of video game characters to some degree, Pokemon litterally has hundred... HUNDREDS of critters to chose from and it ultimately makes each one feel less special.

Predictions for Mewtwo
Chance: 75%
Want: 60%

Nominations
Barbara the Bat ×2
Slime ×2
Concept: Wars character ×1
 
Joined
Jul 29, 2014
Messages
898
Location
Duwang
Switch FC
SW 6027 0894 6117
Greninja

Chance: 95%

Lucario didn't get cut last game so Greninja also shouldn't get the axe this time around, especially taking his huge popularity into account.

Want: 55%

Didn't pick Froakie in gen 6, but he has a unique playstyle and my friend mains him so I wouldn't mind.

Predictions for :4mewtwo:: 85.97%

Nominations: Leon Kennedy x5
 

Troykv

Smash Master
Joined
Jan 24, 2015
Messages
3,778
Greninja only problem is being a potential victim of Low Priority (because this mostly affects Pokémon), but it's hard to see Greninja go with how popular he is.

Chance: 80%

Want: 70%

____________

Predictions:

Mewtwo: 79.5%

Nominations:

Tom Nook x3
KOS-MOS x2
 
Joined
Mar 8, 2018
Messages
505
Greninja

Chance 90%: High chance but you never know.

Want 10%: Not a fan of Greninja even in Pokemon. He isn't the worst starter but he isn't great in my opinion. (the score would be lower if they add "Ash-Greninja".) Also, I would prefer if we got Feraligatr as the Water Starter rep.

Nominations:
Masked Link 2x
Pokemon Trainer (Gen 2) 2x
No Mega Evolutions 1x
 

Strider_Bond00J

Smash Champion
Joined
Jul 23, 2014
Messages
2,759
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Garreg Mach Monastery
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2525-8699-9095
:4greninja:
Chance (of being nerfed)
95%
Greninja's still a relevant Pokémon if you ask me - it was pushed into one of Ash's mainstays in the anime, and still holds a fair amount of popularity to this day.

Want: 100%
Greninja's a pretty cool Pokémon, and I'd say it's worth keeping as one of X & Y's breakout Pokémon, not to mention it's a pretty fun character to play as in Smash Bros.
 

Cosmic77

Smash Hero
Joined
Dec 17, 2017
Messages
6,483
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On a planet far far away...
Switch FC
2166-0541-5238
Greninja

Chance: 99%
I don't see Greninja getting cut. He's unique and was fairly prominent in the XY promotions and anime.

Want: 80%
Ehh... He's my second least favorite Pokemon on the roster, but I still don't want to see him go. Wouldn't be nearly as devastated though if he got cut over Mewtwo.

Mewtwo prediction: 85%

Nominations: Mipha x5
 

Esquelen

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Jul 23, 2014
Messages
130
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Spain
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SW-3004-0190-2265
Greninja

Chance: 90%
If they did not cut Lucario, why would they cut him now? still has fame and Pokémon Company continues to give love to the Pokémon, so I do not see it cut, I see more possibilities now Lucario.

Want: 0%
I just never liked Greninja, I preferred Delphox and I have bad memories when I saw his trailer, I wanted Zoroark in Smash who deserved it more.
 

-crump-

Smash Lord
Joined
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Pepperoni Secret
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Greninja
Chance: 80%
Nothing more to add that hasn’t already been said. Sakurai took a gamble last game and it paid off; Greninja is one of the most popular Pokemon in series history. I really doubt he’ll be leaving any time soon... but if a Pokemon is going to be cut (which I doubt very much), Greninja is probaby the most likely one.

Want: 99%
Greninja is awesome, I don’t like character cuts, yadda yadda yadda...

Would be cool if he turned into Ash-Greninja for his final smash.

Noms:
Tingle x5
 
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Mario & Sonic Guy

Old rivalries live on!
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TPitch5
Greninja
Want: 50%
Chance: 60%

While Greninja was implemented into Smash 3DS / Wii U before it actually developed an identity, it has gained some things that would warrant it returning. The most notable addition to Greninja's tools is the Battle Bond form, which could have potential as a new Final Smash for it.
 

Depressed Gengar

Hana Is Best Girl
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The Johto Region
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Greninja Chance: 80%
Let's be real here, popular or not, Greninja is by no means a shoo-in, or even close. Pokémon's a franchise that's no stranger to cuts, and I can easily see Greninja end up being low priority and thus getting the axe if needed. If Mewtwo got cut at one point, then Greninja sure as hell can too.

... That said I don't think he's the most likely Pokémon to get cut.

Want: 85%
I like Greninja and all, and I even think he's starting to become a bit too significant to not leave a hole in the roster if he were to leave, but I still don't think it'd be that bad if he left.

Mewtwo Prediction: 90%

Nominations: Gengar X5

:094:
 

AlphaSSB

Bring Back Star Fox
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Greninja

Chance: 90% - Greninja has become a very popular Pokemon in the series, hitting 1st in the Japanese popularity poll, having a major roll in the anime, and even having its special anime form cross into the games. Sakurai choosing Greninja for Smash may have been coincidence for Greninja's major popularity, or maybe it was the stepping stone for GameFreak to make him a star. I highly doubt that Greninja is going anywhere, unless the roster downsizes.

Want: 90% - No reason not to cut him. He's one of the series' most important Pokemon, and he's a water starter at that. Doesn't make a lot of sense to cut him, nor would I like to see him cut.

Nominations: Slippy Toad x5
 

LunarOctopus

Smash Rookie
Joined
Apr 24, 2018
Messages
17
Want: 75%. Not particularly interested in him however I do find fighting against Greninja to be a lot of fun. Wouldn't cause any distress if he left though.

Chance: 95%. He's super popular and I don't see him going anywhere. He is the freshest Pokemon rep and they had him in development before X and Y were even released. I don't see him getting removed unless the roster downsizes, which I'd hate to see.
 

Sailor Waddle Dee

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Jun 10, 2014
Messages
402
Greninja

Chance: 75% - He's a pretty neat character. but his generation has passed. so he might get cut. but since he had a unique moveset, sakurai may decide he's worth keeping. and I think the chances of him staying are higher than the chance of losing him.

Want: 80% - He was among my more used characters in Smash 4, he was fun. I'd like to see him return

Mewtwo Prediction: 97.2%

Nomination
Qbby x5
 
Joined
Oct 1, 2008
Messages
596
Greninja

Chance: 98%
Is any truly-popular Pokemon at risk anymore? They tried to cut one off before through Mewtwo, only for both the Pokemon and Smash fanbases to demand him back so much that he became the first DLC to tide us over. Pokemon reps are good money, moveset potential, and hypemakers, and Greninja's got a solid score on all three of those things.

Want: 94%
I liked Chesnaught better, and I never believed he'd get in even without accounting for his recency, but it'd be a nasty omen if he suddenly got cut. Besides, he's a good addition to Pokemon-only matches.

Prediction:
Mewtwo: 92%

Nominations:
Papyrus x5
 

CometX-ing

Smash Apprentice
Joined
May 20, 2014
Messages
198
Greninja
Chances: 90%

Little reason to cut him, I see Lucario or Charizard getting cut before him. There's always the chance that TPCi could want to rotate him out with a SuMo Pokemon, but they didn't do it to Lucario so who knows.

Want: 80%
I like Greninja, he was my favorite Pokemon in X and Y (I often lean to Water types designs) and his inclusion in 4 made me pretty happy. I want him to return, but that said, I wouldn't be too torn up if he was rotated out (depending on who replaced him).

Nomination:
Primarina x5
 

Lampy

Smash Hero
Joined
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Messages
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salt land
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9. Starting 5/3/18, a character must have a support thread to be nominated. If you want to do a dumb character like Blue Bowser, then at least make a support thread.
About that, i'm pretty sure the last rtc thread had a rule against blatant joke nominations. Edit: Found it
2. Please no blatant joke nominations. Maybe we'll become more tolerant to somewhat far-fetched nominations in the future, but anyway please don't nominate things for the sake of quick laughs rather than actual speculation.
I'm not the one in charge but the latter seems like a better rule to me than this one.
 
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Roberk

Smash Champion
Joined
Mar 18, 2018
Messages
2,566
Greninja
Chance: 90%
Very popular. Could be cut for a more current Pokémon but it's unlikely.

Want: 50%
Don't care, didn't really like playing as him in Smash 4.

Noms: Azura x5
 
Joined
Jul 27, 2014
Messages
1,626
Location
France
Greninja chances: 87%
Arguably the Pokémon the most likely to be lower priority, but Greninja has been a pretty successful and popular Pokémon, so a cut would still be fairly surprising especially since it has a unique moveset.

Greninja want: 72%
Not the Pokémon I'm the most attached to but still a fairly fun one.

Mewtwo prediction: 76.86%

Nominating:
Playable newcomer: Mimikyu x3
Returning game mode: Smash Run x2
 

VGamer01

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Jul 19, 2014
Messages
163
Greninja
Chance-80%
Want-100%
I don't see greninja leaving anytime soon.

Prediction-
Mewtwo- 75.7%

Noms-
Sable prince x2
Tora and poppi x3
 

Kirby Dragons

Smash Master
Joined
Aug 30, 2014
Messages
3,580
Location
Another Dimension
Chance: 100%

Smash was what gave it success, enough success to be the most popular Pokémon in Japan. It was one of the most important Pokémon in all of the anime, and even got a new form in the current Gen.

Want: 100%

One of my mains, also happens to be one of my favorite Pokémon. I like ninja.

Nominations: Urban Champion ×5
 

TCT~Phantom

Smash Champion
Joined
Dec 10, 2013
Messages
2,283
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TCT~Phantom
Yo I hate to do this to you guys but I have been swamped with work and travel and personal stuff. As such I will update tomorrow around 5 pm for the next day once we finish all the vets to give as mush time as possible for noms.


Gren
Double 100s

Nominating Spyro x 5

Day Over, please rate mewtwo and predict Impa
 

Icedragonadam

Smash Master
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WitchofKnowledge
Switch FC
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Mewtwo

Chance: 100%

Want: 100%

He was absurdly popular and wanted and was the first DLC character announced. No way is he getting cut again.

Overall these three vets are not going anywhere right now IMO.

Impa Prediction: 27.57%

Lloyd Irving x5
 
Joined
Oct 27, 2013
Messages
759
Location
Georgia
Mewtwo

Chance: 100%

Want: 100%

Either he's getting bumped up to the base roster, or going to be DLC again. No way they'd bring him back just to remove him again in the next game.

Nominations: Lip x5
 
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