Rate Their Chances- Smash Ultimate Day 349: First Party characters after the Fighters Pass

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Arle Nadja

Chance: 15%

I actually think she's a front runner for a non-Sonic Sega character if we somehow got one, and I think she's popular enough in Japan, but her obscurity in the west definitely hurts her.

Want: 40%


Not too opposed to it, but there are other third parties and puzzle based characters I'd prefer.

Lucas the vet prediction: 73.84%

Lucas the loser prediction: 0.28%

Nominations: Bomberman x5
 

Yomi's Biggest Fan

See You Next Year, Baby
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Arle Nadja

Chance: 15%

She is big in Japan, but not so much in the West. It would take Sakurai being generous and Sega wanting to push her. And competition with other Sega characters, even another Sonic character.

Want: 80%

She's a fun character and would make for a fun mage with puzzle elements. Plus more music from her games is fun.

Lucas: 86

Noms: Sans x5
 

TCT~Phantom

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Arle Nadja

55% Chance

High Japanese popularity help her a lot. Sega is pushing Puyo Puyo, and it was within the launch window of the Switch. The fact we got a Puyo Puyo title early on helps her a lot.

100% Want

Puyo Pop Fever is bae.


Nominating Spyro x 5

DAY OVER, CALCS INCOMING
 

TCT~Phantom

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Arle Nadja
15.47% Chance
39.07% Want


Solid scores, more towards the middle of the pack in want. Will be interesting to see how she fares after E3 if rerated.

Today we got Lucas... and the bad Lucas. Rate Lucas (the Veteran) and Lucas (The Wizard) in chance and want. Also predict the scores for Greninja.

ShinyRegice ShinyRegice gets 10 noms since they were only off by .01!
 

Opossum

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Lucas

Chance: 40%
I'm honestly thinking he's one of the single most likely veteran cuts, alongside Roy. Low priority and all.

Want: 99%
Took off a percent because I've mentally prepared myself enough so that his exclusion wouldn't absolutely blindside me. :p

Lucas

Chance: 0%
Mattel owns the Power Glove IIRC, so that kills any reason to add him.

Want: 50%
"It's so bad."


Predicting a 79.9 for Greninja
Nominating English Marth x5
 

Icedragonadam

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Lucas(The Vet)

Chance: 100%

Want: 100%

He's not going to get cut again. Especially since it's likely Smash Switch will be a Splatoon 2 type of sequel. Not only that but Lucas was brought back because of his popularity and Nintendo is aware of that.

He's also my most wanted Vet back and I don't want to pay for him again if he's cut again.

Lucas(The Wizard)

Chance: 0.01%

Want: 0%

Blue Bowser 2 Electric Power Gloveroo

Nominate Lloyd Irving x5

Greninja Prediction: 92.45%
 
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Lucas (Mother 3)

Chance - 99%

I think he's pretty safe. He's immensely popular, and probably doesn't have to worry about clone cuts this time around, because it seems like there are other clones that are lower priority (Dark Pit, Dr. Mario, Lucina or Roy). Even if he does get cut, I can easily see him being one of the first DLC characters.

The 1% is on the off chance he is cut again, but I really doubt it.

Want - 100%

I'd like most veterans to return; Lucas is no exception.

Lucas (The Wizard)

Chance - 0%

He isn't a video game character.

Want - 1%

You know what? Sure. Just to have the Power Glove in Smash. He'd be one of, if not the best, WTF characters to have in Smash. Just make sure to give him these as taunts.

Nominations:
Lloyd Irving x5
 
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D

Deleted member

Guest
We're rating two Lucases on May the Fourth, huh? What a coincidence.

Lucas


Chance: 65%

Brawl veteran and semi-clone that seemed like a low priority for Smash 4, but unlike Wolf, ended up returning as DLC due to popular demand anyway.

Want: 80%

Sure.

Lucas (The Wizard)

I love his chances; they're so bad. (0%)

Want: 0%

Nope.

Nomination: Simon Belmont x5
 

CaptainAmerica

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:4lucas:

Chance: 40%
Want: 15%

With as big a cast as Smash has, I don't know if anyone is guaranteed a slot outside of Link, Mario, and the Inklings, especially if we get as many newcomers as some people are expecting (a 70-man roster pre-DLC is a bit of a stretch, honestly). Doubly so for those characters who were already cut once. Yes, the DLC proved he has a fanbase, but I don't know if that will save him. I may be low-balling this, but DLC vets are pretty well uncharted territory. If the game is a port, they've got the assets so it's likely. If not...he's probably not the highest priority character to get rebuilt...

In terms of his importance to Nintendo, he's most famous for Smash. His game is niche, his series is dead. Plus, he's very similar to Ness in terms of gameplay - similar enough that Ness actually had Lucas' specials as customs. The only thing that's keeping Lucas on life support is his fanbase.

AND YES, I KNOW THAT LUCAS IS NOT 100% A NESS CLONE. Neither is Wolf a Fox clone. And yes, Roy has also been very nicely separated from Marth by now. Still, the people who recognize the differences most are people who put time into learning one character or the other. On the other hand, people who rarely or never play them could easily think that they have more than passing similarities

I never really played the Mother series, so I have no attachment to it, and Ness/Lucas have never been easy for me to handle. I can't say I missed him in the run up to Sm4sh, and I would personally much rather have had Wolf as a DLC over Lucas - at least Wolf did have a new game coming out at the time since his series wasn't dead (though considering how hard that flopped, that's now up for debate). Assuming only a few of the DLC characters will stick around, Lucas is definitely not in my top two (that would be the Melee vets).

Prediction for Ninja Frog: 86.5%
Nom: Skyrim something x5
 

Quetzal77

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:4lucas:
Chance: 85%
I really don't see him being cut again, if anything he is way more popular now than when Brawl came out as Mother 3 is widely considered a classic now/is a meme. I'm not ready to give up on a Mother 3 localization either. However, there's always the chance that as a smaller series Mother will be lower priority and only Ness will make it like in SSB4. If that happens I would like to believe Lucas would come back again as DLC.

Want: 100%
I played Mother 3 a few years ago and it lives up to the hype and more. It's such a special game and it deserves all the praise it gets. I wish everyone could experience this game. A masterpiece, and Lucas is the face of that. I remember his reveal for SSB4, I actually got teary eyed seeing him back and hearing the trailer music. Please don't exclude him again Sakurai!

Other Lucas: abstain for both
Ay lmao

Greninja: 77.86%
Nominations: Pyra/Mythra (without Rex) x3, Neku x2
 

Kitty-chan

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Lucas

Chance: 90%
It'd be kinda weird to cut him nyagain after bringing him back to smash as dlc nya, fan demand seemed to be enough to get the message to Nintendo that he was well wanted despite coming from a Japan only game that's how old nyao nya? However Nintendo could just as easily ignore all that and put him on their bottom priorities list nyagain nya.

Want: 100%
Nyo damn cuts nya!!! So nyaturally I'd want Lucas to return nya!


Lucas (The Wizard)

Chance and Want: 0%
... Nya~?:nifty:

Nyominations
Mimikyu: x5
 
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Lucas
Chance 77%
They brought him back noting him as very popular. It's hard to picture him getting cut again
Want 100%
He's a fun veteran

The other one
Double 0

Nominate Parabo and Satebo x5
 

slambros

Smash Ace
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Lucas (from Mother 3)

Chance: 100%
They're not gonna cut him.

Want: 100%
They shouldn't cut him, either.

Nominations:
Bomberman x2
Excitebiker x3

:171:
 

MasterWarlord

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Lucas (Mother)

Chance - 85%: This game should be heavily reusing assets so I don't see why he would not come back, really.

Want - 75%: The only reason it's not 100 is because I feel he shouldn't have come back over Wolf, but that's not really his fault. I also don't personally like the character very much, just feel he should be there.

Lucas (Tacky Movie)

Chance - 0%: Movie that nobody in Japan saw probably that is insanely old and probably hated by this point. Copyright issues from the movie, the actor who portrayed him, and the power glove. Also, it's the villain from the movie who has what, 10 minutes of screen time, just for good measure. Yes, the main character is obviously worse, but it doesn't bode well for him that he's a minor character in this film.

Want - 0%: I'm not so starved for villains that I will take a live action kid from a terrible movie. Yes, I watched it back in the day.

Nominate Cranky Kong x5
 
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:4lucas:
Chance - 50%
I'm really not sure on our little blond boy. Ness was almost cut once and Lucas was already cut once. Now I know people point to Nintendo bringing him back saying the fans wanted him back, but I also feel that is obvious hype building. They wouldn't just say "Oh ya, we decided to piece Lucas together since it'd be an easy addition. Buy him!" I think he has a fan base, but I do feel it's likely dwarfed compared to the other DLC characters minus Corrin. The series is also dead at 3 games with some not being localized. (Lucas's) I really do feel Lucas isn't the safest.
Want - 55%
If character slots being as high as they are becomes an issue, I would be willing to let Lucas fall after some others like Lucina, Dark Pit, and Dr. Mario. I don't actively want him out to get rid of him, seeing as I loss :wolf: and people are trying to bandwagon :4greninja: to be cut this time around. So there is that part of me that doesn't want others to lose their character. But he is a Smash character that I have low attachment to, but he is the my favorite of the Earthbound boys at least.

Nominations 5x Pikmin Newcomer
 
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Nerd Saga Nate

Part-Time Youtuber, Full Time Nerd
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Lucas
Chance: 85% -
His popularity speaks for him. That said, Ness is higher priority and as a dead series it is lower priority.
Want: 90% - No reason to get rid of him, and I do like playing as him. But not at the expense of Ness getting the axe.

Lucas (The Wizard)
Chance: 0% -
Not a video game character.
Want: 0% - No.

Prediction: Greninja
Chance: 67.81%
Want: 81.21%

Nominations:

Sakura Shinguji x5
 

Koopaul

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Lucas
Chance: 90%
I'm pretty confident that most characters will be back as this game probably will be porting a lot of the same assets.

Want: 60%
Yeah I like him. Wouldn't be too broken up if he was gone. But I'd be happy to see him return.

Predictions for Greninja
Chance: 70%
Want: 50%

Nominations:
Barbara the Bat ×3
Slime ×2
 

Troykv

Smash Master
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Lucas:

Chance: 85%

His biggest problem is low priority, but the fact he's so easy to redo having already the assets in the Wii U version makes this incredible likely.

Want: 60%

He's nice. I like to PK Love people with the Needle attack

________________________

Prediction:

Greninja: 76.5%

Nominations:

Tom Nook x3
KOS-MOS x2
 
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Joined
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Messages
596
Lucas (Earthbound)

Chance: 65%
What kind of logic is at work when you chop out a semi-clone from a series that doesn't have high priority in the "more characters" department, only to add the character back anyway as DLC? Well, the logic where you have too many characters and too little time to put all of them into the base roster, of course. We could really use info on this Smash's development cycle to make this call more accurately, but besides development fuddles, there's not too much reason to cut Lucas when the only other option is too similar to Ness for comfort. However, Smash 4 was still a pretty stark clue that Lucas is much less of a lock-in than we'd hope.

Want: 75%
While I didn't particularly miss him during his brief absence, and while he doesn't really add much to the roster, there's no reason to be against his inclusion. Characters with stronger demand are kept out, and Lucas's exclusion would just help lay cement on those gaps.


Lucas (Wizard)

Chance: Abstain
Now I know how people felt during Blue Bowser day. Hooray for empathy!

Want: 0%
Video game characters only, please.


Prediction:
Greninja: 89%

Nominations:
Papyrus x5
 
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Joined
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Messages
964
Lucas

Chance: 80% - He's now a two time veteran, and was chosen amongst all the Brawl cuts to be the one brought back as DLC. I'd be very surprised if he left again after being specifically brought back due to popularity.

Want: 100% - No cuts.

The other Lucas

Chance: 0% - Pretty sure not even Nintendo remember this guy. Also pretty sure the actor ended up being a sex offender later in life.

Want: 0% - No non-video game characters, least of all this guy. Still think that the Power Glove should be a super mode for Master Hand, but that's equally as unlikely.

Predictions

Greninja: 72.72% - I feel like Lucario sticking around past his sell-by date is enough evidence for people to be confident in Greninja pulling it off too, though he's admittedly not as big of a deal to Pokemon as the blue dog is.

Nominations

Scorpion x 5
 

Aetheri

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:4lucas:
Chance: 50%
Didn't make the cut for Smash 4's base roster plus his series is a dead series. That said he was brought back for DLC due to popular demand...

Possibly low priority but could still be added in the end...I feel he's more of a toss up...he could make it back, he could not...depends on how things are handled going forward...

Want: 10%
To be completely honest, and as harsh as it sounds, Lucas is easily my least favourite out of all the DLC characters...All because he's a character I really should not have to pay for during Smash 4's DLC...especially considering he's a character I literally never use...

To top it off he's a character that has really sort of bewildered me as to why he's even in the game, especially considering his game still hasn't been localized even more than TEN YEARS after his debut in Smash in Brawl...

Cutting characters sucks, but I really won't miss him if he doesn't make it...

----

The other Lucas...

Chance/Want: 0%

Literally Who?

----

:4greninja:Greninja-75.57%

----

Dark Samus x5
 

FamicomDisk

Smash Journeyman
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Messages
356
Lucas from Mother 3

Chance: 99%

I'd say Lucas is almost certain. The Mother games have a passionate following, Lucas is a fan favorite character, and he was brought back in Smash 4 as DLC specifically because of fan demand. After bringing him back because of all the requests and realizing how popular he is, would they remove him again? I don't think so. It's at 99% because there's always the smallest chance, but I'm very confident he'll be there.

Want: 100%
The Mother series is one of my all-time favorite game series, so of course I want him! I love all representation Mother gets in Smash - beyond Lucas, I'd love to get new characters, stages, and whatever else!

------

Lucas from the Wizard

Chance: 0%

I love the Power Glove

Want: 0%

It's so bad

------

Greninja chance prediction: 65.54%

Nomination:
Kumatora x5
 
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Ura

Advance Wars is the new Mother 3
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:4lucas:and the other lesser Lucas

The Lucas we actually want

Chance: 80%

It's pretty likely Lucas stays in this Smash. He was brought back due to fan demand and I would argue that he's the second most wanted vet only behind Mewtwo.

Want: 90%

Like Lucas and his playstyle. Don't cut him again Samurai.

The Lucas that should go take an L


Chance: 0%

:4cloud:: Memes are meant to be deleted!

Want: 0%


I swear to god if this Lucas gets in over my precious Tony the Tiger i'm going to legit hurt someone. Tony deserves his place in Smash and he should have been included a long time ago. Why he would get passed up for a character like this is beyond absurd and we're overdue for a cereal rep as I mentioned on April 1st.

Prediction: Greninja

Chance: 80%
Want: 82%

Nominations


Masked Link X 3
Bomberman X 2
 
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Lucas

Chance: 100%

I'm of the opinion that if, unless you're a special case like the Ice Climbers, you've been in atleast two Smash games. You're pretty safe from ever getting cut. He may not have been in the Sm4sh base roster but he was added as DLC because of the sheer demand from his fans alone. Cutting him again would just be a major blunder. People would just shout for him to get in once again, untill he'd be added as DLC again.

History would just repeat itself and I thik it would be smart to just leave Lucas in the base roster. He's getting in no matter what.

Want: 75%

Never played Mother 3, but I know how great of a game it is and at this point it just feels wrong to have any Brawl newcomer not make it in right now.

Double zeros for the other Lucas! Literally not a videogame character.

Predictions for :4greninja:: 79.86%

Nominations: Leon Kennedy x3 Canon DK/Bowser/Diddy voices x2
 
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Lucas the coward

Chance: 90%
This Smash should be reusing assets heavily so probably no cuts, except for third parties and maybe characters with actual hatedoms like Corrin.

Also, whoever thinks the fact that he was brought back due to popularity is a marketing spin has really never encountered the EarthBound fandom. Those guys are legion.

Want: 100%
Mother 3 is a masterpiece for the entire medium, and Lucas absolutely deserves his place amongst the gaming pantheon.

Lucas the badass

Chance: Abstain (I wanna go 100 but I know it’s a lie but I don’t wanna go 0 because I low-key think there is a bigger likelihood he’ll be in than some other characters)

Want: 100%
The Power Glove. It’s so bad.

Predictions for Greninja: 76%

Nominations: Ayumi TachibanaX5
 

Lampy

Smash Hero
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Lucas
Chance: 50%
Coin flip imo

Want: 100%
I'm against cuts in general, but Lucas is one of my mains. I may prefer Ness nowadays, but it'd suck if Lucas got cut again.

The other Lucas
Chance: 0%
Not a video game character.

Want: ...10%
This is out of pure obligation as I'm a filthy ****poster.

Susie x5
 
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France
Lucas chances: 67%
He's in higher danger than most likely due to the same weaknesses that likely got him cut in the first place (like being from a decade old Japan-only game), but was brought back to please fans unlike Wolf. I don't know if I'll give any Smash character a much lower score than that, but their chances combined would mean it would be unlikely than none of them is cut.

Lucas want: 74%
I wasn't a Lucas supporter prior to his announcement as a DLC character, but after him being back I can recognize his importance as a character from a popular game. Also his Up smash is one of the most satisfying moves in the game.

Double zeroes for the bad joke. I'd go as far as saying his final results shouldn't be added to the results table.

Greninja prediction: 79.87%

10 extra noms? Great! There have been several cases already of predictions accurate with a 0.01 margin, I wonder if there will be fully accurate predictions.

Nominating:
Playable newcomer: Mimikyu x5
Returning game mode: Smash Run x10
 

MasterOfKnees

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Lucas:

Chance:
50% - One of the more likely cuts, he's not as popular as other cut veterans, and his game is more than a decade old. Might be DLC again.

Want: 75% - I like playing as him just fine, and although I don't think Mother 3 is as good as everyone else seems to it's still a very good game deserving of representation. I wouldn't sweat it if he isn't in though, I didn't when he initially missed the cut last time, and it's simply because my preference lies with Ness.

Bad Lucas:

Chance:
0%

Want: 0%

Lmao

Nominations:
Bomberman x5
 

Al-kīmiyā'

Smash the State
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Lucas, Ness, Ninten, Ana, and Paula should be alternate costumes of the same character with custom moves to differentiate them.

Lucas from The Wizard want: 0%

Nominations:

Decloned Ganondorf x5
 

Arcanir

An old friend evolved
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Lucas
Chance: 60%

Lucas has an interesting history in Smash. In Melee, Sakurai intended to have Lucas replace Ness, but Mother 3 getting cancelled at the time put an end to that plan. Then he planned on doing it again with Brawl, but when he found out Mother 3 wouldn't be released overseas so he put Ness back in. Then we get to Smash 4 and he got cut from the roster, only to return with DLC as he was one of the more popular veterans that was cut from the game and could be feasibly added back in.

It seems like when it comes to the Earthbound duo, Sakurai does seem to be more willing to put one of them on the chopping block depending on the circumstances, and Lucas is again in an odd spot I'd say. He does have a lot of popularity in the Smash fanbase and he was one of the first characters to be placed back in via DLC, which are both positives for him. However, while DLC did bring him back, the thing is we don't know the nature of this game nor how much content is truly getting ported over to it. Information is limited, so we can't count on his existence in that content translating to his absolute return in Smash Switch. He may not be an easy port for the developers to do, and since he was low priority before, that can mean he'd be low priority again and get cut if things don't go his way.

In general, I think it depends on what the situation is behind Smash Switch. If the scenario behind the game results in constricted time and resources, then I think he'll be one of the characters that would be considered expendable, if not then I think he'll make his return.

Want: 100%
He's my favorite of the Earthbound duo.

Lucas (The Wizard)

Chance and Want: 0%
You love the Power Glove, but it's not bad enough to save you.

Nominations: Lycanroc x5
 

KingofPhantoms

The Spook Factor
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Lucas Chance: 85%

He was cut at first, but thanks to DLC, he came back. Granted, the devs didin't initially have plans for DLC, but since it's more than likely going to be in use for the next game, I don't see why Lucas wouldn't at least return via that again if he doesn't make the base cut this time.

Want: 60%

He's a great character, but without any personal connections to Mother 3, he's a veteran I can live without.

Lucas (the Wizard) Chance: 0%

I'm not even gonna give this rating bold and colored text like I do with normal ratings, and even the joke that was Blue Bowser.

If being from an old and dated movie that was very badly received doesn't completely obliterate his chances all on it's own, not being from a video game does. And if somehow, even that isn't enough, his actor was later convicted of something seriously disgusting years after the film's release. That is the final nail in an already sturdy coffin, and rightfully so. He's as ineligible as you can possibly get.

Want: 0%

I'll have to say no, thank you very much.

Greninja Prediction: 68%

Nominations: Sans x5
 
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:4lucas:

Chance: 90%

Want: 80%


The other Lucas

Chance and want: 0%


Noms:
Music: Final Destination (Ver. 2) x5

Greninja prediction: 82.76%
 
Joined
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Lucas

Chance: 99%

Even if he doesn't make it in the base roster, they'd more than likely make him downloadable again.

Want: 100%

I played as him during the SSE and he quickly became my favorite Brawl character to play as. I didn't even know anything about Mother 3, then I played through a bit of it, and fell in love with everything about it; the battle system, the music, the atmosphere, the story, and thank goodness for the improved inventory management system. I never completed the game, but maybe one day I'll revisit and finally see the ending. I appreciate his inclusion, since it introduced me to a great game I never would have known about otherwise! like Hopefully he isn't DLC again; there's no way I'm going to cough up extra cash for cut content that I actually liked when nearly half of the base game is new stuff I don't care about.

Want/Chance Abstained for the other guy

Nominations: Lip x5
 

zipzapsparkle

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Mar 9, 2018
Messages
191
Lucas

Chance 50%
Want 50%

The Mother series being finished/dormant I think that since he was cut and brought as dlc last time he might be a low priority character. So it could easily happen again.

The other Lucas
Chance 0%
Want 0%

Who?

x3 Tom Nook
x2 Arcade Bunny

Predict 88.8%
 
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Earthbound Lucas:
Chance: 60%
Low priority possibly, but the common thought seems to be "port to new game" so cuts are less.

Want: 100%
Indifferent to him but he's a veteran

Double Zeroes to the joke pick

Balloon Fighter x5
 

Cosmic77

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Lucas

Chance: 60%
If he was cut before, it could happen again. Doesn't help his case that he's from a niche series either, or that he's a semi-clone.

Want: 100%
Lucas is probably the only other EarthBound rep we'll ever get. Without him, it's just Ness.

Lucas (The Wizard)

Double zeroes

Greninja prediction: 84.5%

Nominations: Mipha x5
 
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:4lucas:

Chance- 80%
The demand is there, and why would they go through the trouble of making him a DLC fighter, only to cut him next time around?

Want- 100%
I haven't played Mother, but he is a cool semiclone.

Lucas (The Wizard)

Chance- 0.1%
Not from vidya

Want- 80%
It would be hilarious. His home stage would be world 1 of Super Mario Bros 3

Greninja- 64.32%

Funky Kong X 4
Thwomp X 1
 
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