Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[3DSNinja]

finally
chance:10%: Blaze... Is honestly kinda likely. She is one of the more popular sonic characters and didn't get a min costume. Honestly 4th in line behind Eggman, Shadow, and Tails.
Want:100%::I nominated her after all! The rush games are fantastic. But her moveset is what excites me. A moveset based entirely off of pyrokinesis is a great concept that I really want to happen, and Blaze is my choice for it. Plus, sonic Rush music.
Nominations: Shadow x5

 

[Jomosensual]

Blaze the Cat

Chance 0 - Behind Tails and Eggman for sure and that spells death here for her. We're not getting 3 more Sonic reps. I'm not even sure she's the next tier of possibilities for Sonic reps either. Sonic isn't getting 3 more reps in this game so there's no shot at this happening.

Want 0 - No real interest in this. Only possible Sonic character I'd like to see still is Eggman

Predict Arle - 14.29

Noms:
Unsafe Wiimote Guy x5

 

[Sari]

Blaze the Cat

Chance: 0%
We are still missing the much more important/popular Sonic characters like Tails, Knuckles, Robotnik, and Shadow to name a few. I see no reason why Blaze would make it in before any of them. It'd be like Daisy getting into Smash before Luigi and Bowser. Her being a spirit along with the rest of the Sonic cast doesn't really give her an advantage either, not that I think we'll be getting another Sonic rep in the near future.

Want: 0%
Of the possible Sonic candidates, Tails and Robotnik are the main ones that I want to see. After them I don't really want anymore Sonic characters so I can't say I'd be too hyped for Blaze. Even if we were to get even more Sonic characters, I'd still want Knuckles, Shadow (as long as he's just an echo), and then Rouge before Blaze.

Arle Nadja chance prediction: 12.08%

Nominations:
Quote x5

 

[NintenRob]

Blaze

Double 0

Do I even have to explain? Obviously she's not getting in before plenty of other sonic characters. And I don't even expect any of them. Or want.

Nominate no more stages after the pass x5

Prediction 13.2%

 

[Ninjaed]

Blaze the Cat

Chance: 0%
It's sad that I have to give her that score... if only Eggman had been in already, then I would've been able to rate her higher. Unfortunately, there is simply no way that Blaze gets in before him. Because of that, I don't even have anything else to add... I'll be waiting for the day Eggman is in to rerate her - though I still think she wouldn't get in, as things stand now. Maybe if Blaze starred in spin-off games to her name or something and those games were massively successful?

Want: 20%
It's a hard choice between Silver and Blaze, both have interesting abilities - though Silver may have already been rendered "obsolete" by Mewtwo's existence. A shame, because I'd have liked to see how he could've been implemented in Smash. But back to Blaze. As fun as she could be to play as, characters using fire is nothing new. Her moveset could be padded with Sonic references and the like, but others like Tails could do that too and more. I'm not entirely sure what she could bring but I'd be intrigued if she ever snatched a coveted DLC slot.

Predictions: Arle Nadja - 8%
From what I've seen, some people here seem to quite like her and think her likely, but that statement about no Puyo Puyo in fighting games should hurt her chances quite a bit.

Nominations: Kiryu Kazuma x5

 

[warpenguin55]

Blaze

Chance: 0%
For Blaze to get in, too many other Sonic characters would need to be passed over. I just can't see Tails, Shadow, and Eggman all be passed over for her

Want: 0%
I'm not too interested in seeing another Sonic rep atm

Predictions: Arle 8%

Noms: Frogger x5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

"I WANNA PUT MY WEEEEEEEEN-"
Chance: 0%
She's such a C-list Sonic character I don't see how she'd ever even cross Sakurai's mind. Even assuming she'd be an echo fighter because of the Rush games, those games were quite a while ago and she hasn't had a significant role since. (she wasn't even in Forces to my knowledge) Not to mention she would never get to be Sonic's echoe over the likes of Shadow, Metal or Tails. And when talking about a unique fighter, Eggman and Knuckles would also be considered way before her. All of these characters are much more iconic and popular than her and even they aren't likely considering we're at three Smash games with StH representation with Mr. Needlemouse himself being the only one playable. So what shot does Blaze the Cat of all people have? None, I'd say.

Want: 0%
Im a Sonic fan but I haven't played any of the games in which she is considered relevant. Not that I need to. There's no reason she should get in over the way more iconic and requested members of the Sonic cast.

Arle: 26.28%
Hollow Knight costume x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Was gonna leave this rating for tomorrow, but then I saw it's Blaze so I can get it out of the way quick

Chance: 0%
Blaze won't get in over: Shadow, Tails, Eggman, Knuckles, and Amy. After that there's still other characters in the Sonic franchise that would pose competition. And there's also competition within Sega: Kiryu, Arle, Ryo, Monkey Ball, Phantasy Star, Alex Kidd, Shinobi, Jet Set Radio... Plus possible extra candidates from Bayonetta and Shin Megami Tensei/Persona... Yeah, not gonna happen.

Want: 10%
I like Blaze as a character, I like the Rush games, and admittedly she would probably be very fun. But I want so many characters over her, and I can't honestly say her inclusion would be justified.

Noms: first party characters x5
Arle prediction: 24.37%

 

[Wunderwaft]

Blaze

Chance: 0%
No chance in hell is she getting in before Eggman, Shadow, Tails, and Knuckles. Blaze isn't as notable or as popular as the characters I mentioned. Plus she's already a spirit in the game, and I don't see that status changing for the rest of the game's lifespan.

Want: 0%
Sorry but not interested, I want to see Eggman get in before anyone else. And even after Eggman gets in I prefer other Sonic characters like Shadow, Tails, and Knuckles.

Nomination: Heihachi x5
Prediction: Arle 23.3%

 

[BowserKing]

Blaze The Cat

Chance: 10%. She has a spirit, but I don't think that is going to stop her. Competition is the main concern, and most likely, Shadow or Knuckles would get in next, but then again, surprising characters are possible.

Want: 60%. Not my most wanted Sonic character, but she would be fun to play as. Plus I'll be happy that we get a second Sonic rep.

Arle Prediction: 10%

Noms: 2 for Meowth and 3 for King Boo

 

[SKX31]

Blaze, aka. one of the worst affected victims of the mass demotes:

Chance: Null. Nada. 0 %. For either Ultimate or Smash 6.

Oh damn. Blaze came into being during a very tumultous time at SEGA. We need to remember this, since while Sonic Rush was well recieved, the then in development Sonic 06 was in a major pickle. What with Yuji Naka leaving and significant turmoil within the staff, I wouldn't be surprised if Blaze herself made her console debut via executive degree. As another way for hardcore fans to notice the 360 / PS3 title.

No matter how she was added into Sonic 06, it's evident that she was completely misplaced with no explanation in game as to why. It's only one relatively minor reason why Sonic 06 was disasterous - but the results were clear for the character. After Rush Adventure, she got practically demoted.

This low rating comes also because had Sonic 06 not happened, or had Blaze not been demoted, I could see her even getting a primary position within the Sonic franchise. Buuut, here we are. If Sonic's getting any other characters, it'll most likely be Eggman, Shadow, Tails or even Knuckles getting the upgrade.

Want: 75 %

One of the Sonic characters I like most, because she appears pretty interesting on her own right. Also, gets some points for being one of the most functional character gameplay-wise in 06.

Predictions: Arle 29 %

Noms: Thrall x5

 

[DanganZilla5]

Blaze the Cat

Chance: 0.001%

Over Eggman, Shadow, Tails, and Knuckles? No way. And Sari already took the words out of my mouth with the Daisy comparison. There isn't much else to say really. At the best, she is 5th or 6th on the priority list, and there is no way we are getting more than 1 or 2 more playable Sonic reps for this game. If it's taking this long for another Sonic rep (which we may not end up getting), then Blaze's chances are essentially dead.

Want: 2%

No. Just no. She could have a unique moveset, but I would rather have any of the aforementioned Sonic characters which are more important to the series.

Predictions: Arle - 30%

Noms: Geno x5

 

[Calamitas]

Hm, the current speed at which we're going through the days really caught me off guard here - I completely missed the LoL day, even though I wanted to give my rating. I'll just do both that and today's rating, even if it isn't counted anymore.

RoFL, or something

Chance: 10%
Well, it certainly is a video games that exists and has sold a decent bunch. That's certainly the case. But there's just some major factors working against it - namely, being a primarily Western franchise (no, just because B&K made it in doesn't mean that any Western character is super likely) and that LoL is primarily on the PC.

Want: 0%
Nah. Zero attachment to the game, and from what I've heard about the developer, I'd rather not have them in Smash.

Now, as for today's actual rating. . .

420 Kitty

Chance: 0%
The Sonic series just really doesn't seem to be in a position where it's getting a newcomer anytime soon. I mean, what has Sonic really gotten since Brawl? One new stage, a new Assist Trophy, and a few non-remixed songs. Sonic representation seems to be just a done deal already in the eyes of Sakurai and his team, and if it weren't, I think characters like Tails, Knuckles, Shadow or Eggman have a better shot at making it in. As for my own feelings.

Want: 80%
Oh, definitely. My own "Sonic phase" admittedly already ended about nine years ago, but even so, Blaze is probably still my favourite character from that series. She easily ranks above the other Sonic characters I mentioned in my Chance score (save for maybe Eggman), and could in my eyes offer a more interesting moveset than them, too.

Predicting Arle to be around 21.12%.

Nominating Concept: Any new Xenoblade character x5.

 

[Deleted member]

[marijuana joke]

Chance: 0%

Ah yes, we're back to rating a spirit in Smash again, but this time, it's a side character from Sonic. There isn't any way she'd be a fighter in Smash before other Sonic characters like Tails and Eggman, and since they're spirits as well, Blaze is pretty much dead in the water.

Want: 1%

Blaze the Cat? More like Bleh the Cat

Forgive that dumb bit, but if I were to want another character from Sonic to be in Smash, Blaze would not be a character from that series I'd pick, let alone pick for DLC. If anything, she'd be better suited as an Assist Trophy than a fully playable character. That's pretty much all I have to say about her.
-------------------------
Predictions:
Arle - 9.15%
-------------------------
Noms:
Francis York Morgan x5

 

[3BitSaurus]

Blaze the Cat
Chance: 0%
Wow, my first zero since the "more DLC" announcement. As others said before, if the Sonic franchise got a new rep (which I doubt at this point), it would be an Echo, and Shadow definitely beats her for it. For non-Echoes, which are practically impossible, Tails, Knuckles, Eggman and even Amy would have more chance than her. So that's three BIG problems right off the bat. Enough said.

Want: 0%
Look, I'm a long time Sonic fan. Sonic was my most wanted in the post-Snake Brawl days. I like the Sonic characters. That said, if you're going to pick another Sega character, unless it's Shadow as an Echo, then please let other other franchises shine instead. As much as I like that series, I would rather have Arle a million times before a non-Echo Sonic character. Speaking of...

Predictions
Arle Nadja: 10.1% (I think most will either sleep on her or consider her disconfirmed because of that interview)

Nominations
[Rerate] Sora x 5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Concept: League of Legends rep pre-Blaze the Cat

Ninten x125
[Rerate] Dovahkiin x125
9-Volt x120
Rundas x115
The Horrible Goose (Untitled Goose Game) x115
Riesz (Mana) x110
Boss: Kracko x110

150 - 101

Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x105
Frogger x105
[Rerate] Steve x105
Concept: First-parties after the Fighter Pass x105

100 - 51

Aloy x100
Concept: Any grass-type starter x93
Sol Badguy x90
[Rerate] Geno x90
Glover x85
Sunflower (Plants vs. Zombies) x85
Concept: No more stages beyond the Pass x85
Thrall (Warcraft) x85
Noctis Lucis Caelum x80
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x80
Ryo Hazuki x80
[Rerate] Quote x77
Proto Man x75
[Rerate] Sora x71
X (Mega Man) x68
Papyrus x66
Brian (Quest 64) x65
Francis York Morgan x65
Decidueye x53
Sackboy x53

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Reporter & Wrestler x50
[Rerate] Bandana Dee x45
Concept: Any new Xenoblade character x40
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x35
[Rerate] Heihachi x35
[Rerate] Dante x32
Akira Howard x30
[Rerate] Shadow the Hedgehog x30
Unsafe Wiimote Guy x30
Earthworm Jim x28
Mii Costume: Hollow Knight x25

Under 25

Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x22
Meowth x20
[Rerate] Lloyd Irving x20
[Rerate] Claude von Riegan x20
Kunio (River City) x20
King Boo x16
Chun-Li x16
The Blob (De Blob) x15
[Rerate] Rayman x15
[Rerate] Crash Bandicoot x15
Urbosa x15
Giygas x10
Concept: Lord Fredrik as an Echo of K. Rool x10
[Rerate] Doomguy x10
[Rerate] Monokuma x9
Rival Pokémon Trainer x7
[Rerate] Tetromino x5
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Gordon Freeman x5
[Rerate] Phoenix Wright x5
Black Shadow x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Nightmare (Soul Calibur) x5
[Rerate] Prince of All Cosmos x5
Kazuma Kiryu x5
Freddy Fazbear x2

Boss: Kracko wins the tie with Protector, and stays in the top seven tied with Riesz for sixth.

Frogger, Steve, and Concept: First-parties after the Fighter Pass all cross 100 noms.

Sackboy rolls past the 50 nom mark.

Mii Costume: Hollow Knight escapes the under 25 club.

Today's newcomers are Kazuma Kiryu and a rerate of the Prince of All Cosmos, both with 5 noms.

 

[Playstation Guy 1000]

Blaze the cat
Chance 10%:Blaze is likely but she has too much competition with other sonic characters(Tails,Eggman,Knuckles,Amy,Shadow).
Want 15%:While I don't mind Blaze becoming a fighter,I prefer Eggman and Knuckles to become a fighter before Blaze.

 

[Ridrool64]

The technically best part of Sonic 06, even though exploiting the fun glitches is basically the only way to get your money's worth. Also I was gonna do something for League day but oh well, I didn't have much to say.

Chance: 0%. No way, not while Tails, Knuckles, Eggman, Amy, Shadow, Arle, Yu Narukami, NiGHTS, Jack Frost, Kazuma Kiryu, Jeanne, Ristar, Billy Hatcher, Ryo Hazuki, the Demi-Fiend, a Streets of Rage character AND Metal Sonic still aren't in. I cannot see any reason for Blaze to possibly make it in. She was a decent face of the Sonic franchise... 14 years ago, 12 years ago. Nowadays, not so much.

Want: Look at who the next character is. Then look back to me. 0%, at this point it should explain itself. Especially since she isn't a new series (though with Yu I'd make an exception, but I consider DLC Mii Costumes the only true disconfirmation and hey. He's a DLC Mii Costume. Ah well).

Arle will see somewhere around 15.29%. Lloyd x 5.

 

[Sid-cada]

Blaze the Cat

Chance - 0% - Dude, even in Sonic there are several characters that are more famous and requested than her. She can't be even considered a good echo as of now. She has no chance.

Want - 0% - If I wanted a new Sonic character I would rather have Eggman, as at least he has some interesting things to do. I'm not invested in a new sonic character anyways.


Predictions

Arle - 8.35% - International obscurity does people no favors...


Nominations

Kunio X5

 

[3DSNinja]

Um, is an entire moveset based off of pyrokinesis NOT give you enough things to do?

 

[Ninjaed]

Um, is an entire moveset based off of pyrokinesis NOT give you enough things to do?

It's not about an interesting moveset or not. It's about the fact that if there's a new Sonic character, it's going to be Eggman, Tails or Shadow - in that order. Not even Knuckles makes it top 3, and Blaze isn't part of the main gang.

 

[3DSNinja]

I was replying to his comment about Blaze not having things to do.

 

[Ninjaed]

Oh sorry I didn't even notice he said that. Now I feel stupid.

 

[Plank08]

Blaze gets a flat 0% Chance
Why in the history of the world would Nintendo go to sega for a sonic character that’s not Knuckles,Tails, Eggman, or Shadow?? That’s 4 characters that are WAY more popular, WAY more iconic and MUCH more wanted in the community. The only chance Blaze has is if every one of these characters gets in first, but we are not getting 5 sonic characters! Blaze is never getting in smash.

Want 0%

sackboy X 5

 

[DaUsername]

Blaze
Chance: 0%
In the very unlikely event that we get another Sonic character, this won't be the first choice. Or the second, or the third, fourth, or even fifth. In short, it's not happening.
Want: 1%
I don't really have anything against Blaze as a character, but I don't really want another Sonic character in Smash. I'd rather have someone from a new franchise.

Arle prediction: 10%
Noms: Crash Bandicoot x5

 

[Deleted member]

The Fiery Feline

Chance: 0%
if Sega were to double dip and get another Sonic Character I don't think Blaze would be at the top of the list at all when we still don't have Eggman, Tails or Shadow let alone any of the other Sonic characters like Amy, Knuckles or a plethora of other more important Sonic characters. If they were to double dip I'm so confident I would almost bet money that she wouldn't get in before Eggman, Tails or Shadow.

Plus She's a Spirit and we don't even know if they want to upgrade spirit characters like her and others though even if they did she wouldn't even be up there when we have Geno, Shantae, Rayman, Dr. Eggman, Rex/Pyra and many many others before her.

Basically she has competition on both sides of the spectrum from Spirit upgrades to Sonic characters which I just can't see her overcoming. I also doubt they even want to double dip on Sonic characters as if they did I'm certain Shadow would've been in by now.

Want: 35%
I'm indifferent to Blaze as I honestly wouldn't be too opposed if she got in as I like her abilities and design but I don't see much need for her to be in and even within her own series my preferred Sonic character would be Dr. Eggman as I love almost everything about him from his design to his abilities to his personality to his iconic status. If she got in I wouldn't complain but I would be really confused and a little weirded out but I'm sure she would be fun.

Arle prediction: 35%

Nomination: Concept: First Parties after the fighters pass x5

 

[RileyXY1]

Blaze

Chance: 0%
As much as I want her (she's my second favorite Sonic character behind Amy Rose, obviously), she's a second tier character in this series. Her only merit is the popularity of the Rush games compared to the other modern games. She's one of the few characters who is massively liked by the Sonic fanbase, who are one of the most divisive and easy to piss off fanbases in all of entertainment.

Want: 100%
Isn't it obvious? I created her support thread, the very first support thread I created on this site. She's one of the more awesome characters in the series, pretty much an alternate universe counterpart to Sonic himself, with fire abilities and her own super form to go along with it. Sign me up.

 

[Iko MattOrr]

Blaze the Cat

Chance: 0%
Well, no need to explain... I could just list all the characters with higher priority and the situation is clear enough: Tails, Knuckles, Amy, Eggman, Shadow... maybe even Classic Sonic and Metal Sonic.
If it was Brawl, when Sonic Rush was still a thing, maybe the chance could have been bigger, but now she has become a minor secondary character and due to being from a different dimension she often does not even appears in the games.

Want: 85%
While she's not my top pick, she's still a character that would make me very happy. Gameplay-wise I think she would be a fire version of Greninja, sort of, with the boost as a special move and some elegant animations that make it seem like she's dancing while fighting. Maybe not the most unique fighter in the roster moveset-wise, but I'm sure she would have a lot of personality in her fighting style, and would not be a Sonic clone/semiclone. This said, for the next Sonic character, my first choice would be Knuckles (promoted from assist trophy), that's why it's 85% and not 100%, though Blaze would come second or third (regardless of her chance).

 

[Sari]

Day over.

Rate Arle Nadja from Puyo Puyo (paging Ridrool64 )

Predict Concept: Valve rep.

Expect the day to end Monday night.

Megadoomer (for reference I'm gonna be tagging them for upcoming title changes)

----------

Some songs to get into the Puyo popping mood:

Spoiler

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

I know Blaze's day is over, but being a Sonic fan I'm gonna give her an evaluation anyway alongside the Arle one!

Blaze the Cat, of the Sol Dimension

Chance: 0.5% - As cool as Blaze is, she faces incredibly steep competition from both fellow SEGA characters and characters from her own franchise. If SEGA gets another rep, it'll likely be someone like Arle or Aiai, and if we get another Sonic character (which to be honest Sonic more than deserves!) it'll be someone like Tails, Eggman, Knuckles, or Amy. Furthermore, while she appears regularly in spinoffs, Blaze's main games, the Sonic Rush series, hasn't seen a new entry since 2007, so relevancy isn't in her favor either. She'd have unique moveset potential but I don't see Sakurai or Nintendo choosing her.

Want: 40% - Being a Sonic fan, I really want to see another Sonic rep in the game. Sonic's the only third party with perfect attendance since Brawl, and he has so many iconic characters to bring into the fray. His faranchise is iconic, even if controversial, and if Castlevania can get an echo at debut, then I think Sonic deserves another slot by now. That being said, I've never played the Rush games, so I don't have as much of a connection to Blaze as I do to other Sonic characters. If I were to choose another Sonic rep, I'd choose Tails, Robotnik, Knuckles, Amy, or even the Chaotix. Still, if Blaze got in, then I'd still be very happy to see her!


Arle Nadja

Chance: 12.92% - Arle's got a decent amount of momentum going for her right now. She has legacy, Puyo Puyo's iconic in Japan, and Puyo Puyo Tetris has given it a lot of positive exposure in the west. She continues to grow in popularity! Plus puzzle games aren't really represented well, and I can see Sakurai going for a quirky character like her. That said, I don't yet see SEGA double dipping into DLC, at least not yet. Furthermore, a lot of people know Puyo Puyo but not Arle herself, and in the modern games she has a lot of other characters to compete with (at least from what I can see). So Arle definitely has a solid chance but I wouldn't bet on her yet.

Want: 10% - Arle has a cute design and would make for a very unique newcomer. Though if we're going to get another SEGA rep, another Sonic rep would be my first choice by far. I 'm a big fan of the Sonic games and have little to no experience or attachment to Puyo Puyo. And if SEGA wants to bring in a new series instead then I think someone like Aiai from Super Monkey Ball would be an ideal pick. He appears in several SEGA crossovers front and near center while Arle is nowhere to be seen a lot of the time (though admittingly a good chunk of them are made in the west where she isn't too popular). He also has almost his entire series on Nintendo systems. Still, Arle would make for a novel character and I wouldn't mind seeing her in the game.


Nominations:
[Rerate] Prince of All Cosmos x10

Predictions:
Valve Rep - 0.72%


Also a quick question! I missed the previous day and decided to do the analysis for that day's character in this post. Would I be able to add the nominations I would've gotten to my total for today or would it be too late?

 

[GoodGrief741]

Also a quick question! I missed the previous day and decided to do the analysis for that day's character in this post. Would I be able to add the nominations I would've

If it's less than one hour after the day change, you can give scores and nominations and they will be counted for that day.

 

[3DSNinja]

Haven't played Puyo Puyo, I played Mean Bean machine. Abstain.
Nominations: Shadow x5

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

If it's less than one hour after the day change, you can give scores and nominations and they will be counted for that day.

Sounds good, and thank you! Mine was just under an hour after Sari's so I'll change my nominations to x10.

 

[RouffWestie]

Arle
Chance: 100%
She's in.
The series is popular in Japan, it was influential to the puzzle game genre, and Arle has sat among the highly requested characters we've gotten so far in most polls, not to mention SEGA is clearly giving a sudden push for the Puyo franchise in America. Personally I felt suspicious about this ever since Puyo Puyo Tetris was suddenly localized as a Switch launch title, but after several other games just got their debut release in America, I'm confident that she was chosen as DLC. It's also SEGA's 2nd best-selling franchise right underneath Sonic the Hedgehog. I'm certain Sakurai would be interested in working on a character like Arle after seeing how he's put so much heart into other similar characters.

Want: 0%
I have memories of Mean Bean Machine but that's it. This and Dr. Mario aren't my favorite puzzle games. The gameplay doesn't catch my attention like other puzzle games and I don't think I'd be that interested in seeing how it's implemented in Smash.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Nadja
Chance: 40%
If we were to get another Sega character later down the line I'd place my bets on her. Arle is very popular in Japan, Puyo Puyo Tetris was a near-launch title and the OG Puyo Puyo was put on SNES online instead of its localized, Kirby-themed counterpart, showing interest from Nintendo themself. Still, I wouldn't consider Arle herself as much of a icon she might get eaten up by more generally more popular competition. Also feel those recent Tetris spirits may or may not impact her chances.

Want: 35%
I have certainly played Mean Bean machine but not Puyo Puyo. I wouldn't mind her tho. Her desing is pretty cute, she'd no doubt be unique, legit puzzle game representation would be appreciated and Puyo Puyo Tetris might be a game I'd buy someday who knows. Part of me still prefers a 2nd Sonic character as the next Sega character before her, however. Her and Robotnik in the same game would be interesting, though that's likely not happening.

Valve rep: 2.23%
Hollow Knight costume x5

 

[PokéfreakofBACON]

Doctor Robotnik and his Mean Bean

Chance: 20%
Arle has a whole lot going for her. Puzzle game rep, female, and the closest we'll reasonably get to playable Tetris. Even despite all that though, what really solidifies her as The Next Sega Rep™ is her fan-demand and popularity. It's not quite as big in the US, but Arle has consistently been topping fan-favorite polls for Smash in Japan for years now. And with Sakurai saying he wants interesting/unique characters rather than recognizable ones, her lack of popularity in the west doesn't really matter. What DOES matter is just how insane the concept of playing Puyo and Smash at the same time would be. Sakurai is definitely the kind of guy to bite that bait.

The only reason I see her as 20% and not higher is just because of Joker. She definitely isn't FP #5, that is solidly out of the equation. Post-FP she has a decent shot, though, assuming the Post-FP isn't entirely first party or entirely shill picks or entirely grinch picks or some other unpredictable what-have-you.

Want: 40%
She's great! Puyo Puyo is really fun, I've only gotten into the franchise VERY recently and I'm still terrible at it compared to Tetris, but she definitely would be amazing in Smash. As much as I love Tetris 100000x more, Arle is THE pick for a falling-blocks-puzzle-game character in Smash. Tetris isn't really a reasonable choice for a playable character. Doctor Mario doesn't count.

Also she's cute.


Valve rep prediction: 31.4%

Grass starter x5
(now that SwSh is out I want Grookey's final evo in EVEN MORE.)

 

[Wunderwaft]

Arle

Chance: 30%
Puyo Puyo is fairly big in Japan. It has a long history since the 90s with Nintendo and it has some localized games here in the West. Regardless there are two main problems I see with Arle. The first is competition from other Sega characters like Kiryu. The second is this article where the producer said he was prevented from making a fighting game with Puyo Puyo characters to preserve the image of the series. Now granted this was back in 2017 so it's possible these opinions have changed, but unfortunately we do not know if they did or not. Sega has previously denied Sonic for Smash in Brawl but later backpedaled on it, meaning that we have a previous example where Sega once denied a character for Smash. So with that article and this previous example in mind, I can very well see Sega denying Arle in Smash because of business related reasons.

Want: 20%
I tried the game on SNES online and I did have some fun with it, but I don't know much about the series and Arle besides that. I don't really care about the character that much for Smash.


Prediction: Valve rep 15.5%
Nomination: Steve x5

 

[BowserKing]

Arle Nadja

Chance: 10%. Competition from other franchises and characters are the main issue. The chance of her getting in are slim.

Want: 50%. She would be fun to play as, with some music to enjoy. That is all I got to say for this.

Prediction: Valve Rep: 12%

Noms: 2 for Giygas and 3 for Rival Pokémon Trainer

 

[3BitSaurus]

Arle Nadja
Chance: 40%
I'd say that while Arle has next to no chance as CP5 because of Joker, as a possible Sega rep for the next season, it would be a coin toss between her and Kiryu. She's from a new genre, one of Sega's most popular IPs currently (of which she'd be the undisputed chosen character for Smash) and would have a lot to add to the game. The only thing in her way is the aforementioned article about "no violence" by Puyo's creator. It's possible that things have changed since then, howerver - the article is two years old, after all. So Arle's chances are still good overall.

Want: 100%
Arle is currently my fourth most wanted character. I fell in love with PPT and the aesthetics of Puyo Puyo in general and would love to see it appear in Smash - plus it would be the only true puzzle game series to be represented if it happened.

Predictions
Valve rep: 13.5%

Nominations
[Rerate] Sora x 5

 

[SKX31]

Arle (Got no unique title on her.):

Chance: 40 %

I'm also being rather bullish on her, despite the "no violence" article. Arle has a lot of stuff going for her - not least being lack of competition within her genre. Match-3 (the genre Puyo Puyo belongs to alongside Tetris) does not have - practically - a representative in Smash. Before anyone brings up Dr. Mario, I don't think a clone made to maximize the number of characters on limited time and resources counts as a representative. Beyond the genre niche, Arle also checks many, many of the percieved "boxes" Nintendo might be interested in. Very much a force in Japan, long history with Nintendo and has connections elsewhere to Tetris etc. Moveset-wise she should not be an issue - one can do a lot with Puyos and rotating them in various ways to give Arle a viable moveset.

She does have loads competition within the company though. Kiryu being the most notable, but also AiAi or more out there picks. Given that SEGA's put a Total War Shogun and a Football Manager alongside Danica Patrick and Wreck-it Ralph in All-Stars Racing Transformed SEGA would definetely not mind any character requested. Hell, Joker had some of the most tenous connections to Nintendo ever. Sure one could argue SMT's history with the company but there was zilch SMT content in Smash. Or Q2, even as that game was released right around Joker's window.

Really, Arle's probably the frontrunner for SEGA's #4 slot. She doesn't have an unquestionable hold on it because of the strong competition, but she's got a lot behind her too.

Want: 50 %

Practically fine with her, and perfectly willing to try out her games. Also, bringing along a unique mechanic is always a bonus in my book.

Predictions: Valve rep 15 %

Nominations: Thrall x5