Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Pacack]

I echo the sentiments of YoshiandToad regarding Toad's appearance not hurting Captain Toad at all.

Captain Toad:
Chance: 66%
I consider him to be one of two unique newcomers left with a chance greater than 50%. (Shout out to Dixie Kong.) We haven't not had a unique Mario newcomer since Brawl, and even then we got Wario, who is considerably tied to the Mario franchise. If any series is going to get a unique newcomer and an echo, Mario makes the most sense.

His competition has been largely dismissed (Daisy has been confirmed as an Echo and Waluigi is an assist trophy,) and he is now the clear frontrunner. He has appeared in every mainline Mario game since Galaxy, and he has had his own spinoff game debut on Wii U, 3DS, and Switch. He's popular and recognizable by virtue of being a Toad, and he's playable in more games than Daisy, who's now already in the game. Honestly, he has very little that's going against him.

To those who think Toad being in Peach's moveset hurts him...how?? Toads are a species, and Princess Peach is their ruler. In comparison, Captain Toad is an individual who leads his own crew on adventures to help Mario on his quest. The two aren't the same character, and they don't have the same motivations. Further, the fact that Toad is now more than a meatshield proves that Sakurai noted the criticisms against having Toad in that role, which came primarily from people who support a playable Toad.

If anything, I'm made suspicious by Toadette not appearing as Daisy's counter. The two are (nearly) spin-off exclusive characters, and if any Toad was to pair up with Daisy, it would be her...yet she's absent. If Captain Toad is playable, it makes a lot of sense for Captain Toadette to be an alternate costume, as both appeared in Treasure Tracker.

Want: 100%
I've also been hoping for a Toad for ages. Perhaps I'm biased, but I think he has a genuinely fantastic shot at making the roster this time around, and I'm looking forward to his inclusion.

King K. Rool
Chance: 20%
Consider this a high rating from me. Dixie Kong is the newcomer I see as most likely for the DK series, and I consider her the most likely character sans Captain Toad for this game. That said, if he performed particularly well on the ballot, then he might be prioritized over her. That said, Dixie would be a lot easier to make, having a similar build to Diddy Kong as opposed to K. Rool's completely unique build.

The main reason I don't see him as more likely is because he hasn't appeared in a main-series Donkey Kong game for so long that his absence would be able to vote now in certain areas. New players simply don't know him, and he needs to appear in a Donkey Kong game again before I can call him likely.

Want: 75%
I'd frankly prefer him over Dixie, and I would welcome his return. He seems like he would be a unique character and he's one of the few feasible villains that Nintendo has waiting in their repertoire for Smash. Off the top of my head, I can only name the likes of Pig Ganon and Kamek, who are decidedly less popular.

Ashley:
Chance: 50%
She's an incredibly popular character (particularly in Japan) who has plenty of potential for a moveset. She would represent the popular WarioWare franchise and would effectively be Japan's Ridley. Her main hurdle is the same one that most everyone is facing; we don't know if we're going to get many newcomers at all.

Want: 40%
I have no attachment to the character, but witches are cool, I guess? I would prefer Mona as a WarioWare representative, but I like magic too, so I wouldn't complain.

Impa:
Chance: 50%
Not only did I think she was possible before, but her potential inclusion as an echo fighter makes a ton of sense. If we were rating the concept of a unique Impa, I would say only about 20%, but having echo as a possibility helps her significantly.

Want: 100%
I feel like Impa ought to be in at this point. She's the only Zelda character that feels missing from the roster to me. It's kinda strange that she hasn't appeared already.

Nominations: Historical Newcomer x5

 

[YoshiandToad]

I just realised; are these guys grouped together due to them all being Mii outfits(or related to in Captain Toad's case)?

King K. Rool
Chance: 50%
Okay, see I still don't think K. Rool is underrated but I think he's a coin flip with fair chances. He's popular sure, but he's unable to even get in his own game series of recent, Sakurai has been notoriously awful at including much DK content(where the Rambi AT already?) and currently there's precisely ONE non Japan created character on the roster, that being Diddy Kong.

Want: 40%
I'm going to be honest; I don't really remember K. Rool much from the DKC games. I think I was kind of bad at them as a kid or I didn't find him that memorable, but Dixie always stuck with me as a great character and thus she ended up being one of my favourite Donkey Kong characters right after Diddy. Country Returns has proven that DKC can work without K. Rool even if the Tiki Tongs were badly recieved, a lot of people liked the Snowmads, including myself.

That said, I cannot deny he's popular and a few of my friends would love to see him playable which ups his want a little more, even if many of my biggest internet fights over my most wanted have been at the hands of overconfident K. Rool fans during Sm4sh's speculation period. It helps I've really taken a liking to the DKC series as a whole since Retro took over, so more DK is always good.

Chrom
Chance: 60%
Okay, if Chrom was left off last time due to being too similar to Ike, and the fact he's kept prominance in Fire Emblem in Heroes, Warriors, etc, it wouldn't surprise me if Chrom followed his daughter onto the battlefield as an Echo fighter of Ike. With Lyn out the picture, Chrom is the only reasonable inclusion based on popularity from a past game. Hector no matter how popular isn't getting in.

Want: 60%
Chrom as a character is frankly a bit dull. I loved Awakening when I first played it, but even as my first and only Fire Emblem game Lord, I realised Chrom was a bit of a dullard as a character. I really WANT to like him more, but he's not really got much to him outside standard heroism.
That said, Smash's trailer having him become an underdog immedietly kicks that British side of me awake and makes me root for him. Balls to the more likely characters, let this plucky and admittedly popular underdog complete the Awakening line up.

LET HIM HAVE HIS CHANCE ANOTHER DAY. I MEAN TODAY. THIS YEAR. YOU KNOW WHAT I MEAN.

Ashley
Chance: 70%
She's missing. She's heavily requested in Japan, and she has an infinite supply of moveset potential due to the fact she's a Witch. If she's

Want: 10%
It honestly feels wrong to have Ashley team up with Wario BEFORE Waluigi. Add to that I don't really 'get' what puts Ashley above other Warioware characters such as 9-Volt who could better represent the nature of gaming from the series and Ashley's inclusion doesn't really do much for me. Perhaps if I see a magic moveset only she could do in action I'd warm up to her, but right now I heavily dislike the idea of any Warioware character making it in before Waluigi.

 

[Runic_SSB]

Chrom

Chance: 10%
Maybe as an echo of Ike, but with the outcry against the abundance of FE characters and none of the old ones being cut, I really can't see them adding more.

Want: 0%

K. Rool

Chance: 35%
The spot for the new DK character is highly contested, with good arguments for every character. However, the confirmation of Echo characters gives Dixie and Funky an edge over K. Rool and Cranky.

Want: 15%
Honestly, no attachment to this character at all.

Captain Toad

Chance: 30%
Decently popular and relevant.

Want: 25%
Could be cool.

Impa

Chance: 75%
With Midna and Ghirahim deconfirmed, and the possibility of her being a Sheik echo, her chances are up quite a bit.

Want: 30%
She'd be cool.

Ashley

Chance: 50%
Extremely popular in Japan and being pushed considerably. The only real counterpoint is the recent lack of WarioWare titles.

Want: 30%
I like Ashley, and she seems like she'd be fun to play as.

Dark Samus prediction: 35%

Rex & Pyra prediction: 30%

Simon Belmont prediction: 45%

Decidueye prediction: 25%

Nominations:
Raiden x5

 

[Pacack]

Wait, TCT~Phantom are we rating Impa today??

 

[jreed3842]

I am only going to talk about Captain Toad because he is really the only character I care about. I don't know enough information on the other characters to have a strong and well-informed opinion on.

Captain Toad:
Chance 50%
Because I can see it going either way. A few things in his favor I have noticed is that we haven't seen ANY Captain Toad related stuff at all. Items like the super pickaxe, the double cherries, or the potted piranha plant (sure the cherries and piranha plant debuted in 3D World but Toad and Captain Toad were both prominent in that game) and those items were used a lot in Treasure Tracker! We haven't seen Draggadon or any Treasure Tracker stages or music. There hasn't been the slightest nod towards Treasure Tracker at all, and maybe that's because that stuff is staying hidden until Captain Toad is being revealed as a character!
Also... Daisy had Blue Toad instead of Toadette... Which is an interesting choice. I feel like Toadette is more recognizable alongside the red-spotted, blue-vested Toad. So why not add Toadette? Unless she is going to be an alt for Captain Toad?

But... I also feel like Sakurai may look at Toad's popularity and be like "We'll make him more prominent in Peach's moveset and that'll be good enough!" The developers may look at Toad and not see him any different from the Captain.

Want: 100%
Toad has been my most wanted character for Super Smash Bros. since Melee! He's my favorite Mario character and I play him whenever he is playable. I am rooting more for Captain Toad than regular Toad just because he stands out just a bit more. There's more detail in his outfit and he's just so cute! There's not much else to say here other than I REALLY REALLY want him. To make this Smash Bros. the ultimate Smash Bros all I need is Toad, and the Captain would fill that role perfectly!

 

[YoshiandToad]

Wait, TCT~Phantom are we rating Impa today??

I too was confused. It's in the thread title, but I went off his "We're rating these characters today" post. Can you confirm TCT?

 

[NeonBurrito]

I used to watch the Super Mario Super Show with...you guessed it; Toad

My man.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

K Rool

95% Chance

Some people might feel this is too high, as we do not have too much more stuff to go off of. We do not have a new DK game, which means we are still in the state of limbo in terms of appearance. So why am I so certain that he is this likely?

Because of the fanservice. Ridley is in the game, all veterans are back, echo fighters are a bit of a bone being thrown to fans of the characters. If fanservice was not so promoted this game, I would probs rate him around a 65, but man they are going all out. We know that he is popular, we know he has a fanbase that spreads across the globe, the fact fanservice is front and center makes him likely imo.

100% want

Same song and dance as last time, love DKC2, love the sereies, need more villains, love his design, etc

Captain Toad

5% Chance

Oh how the mightly have fallen. If Toad was not being promoted as part of Peach and Daisy's movesets even more, he would probably not be as looked down upon right now.

One thing that rubs me the wrong way is that there is an echo fighter from his series being revealed before him. That really stings in my eyes. This honestly makes me rate him lower than the peach stuff.


60% Want

Like the little guy, but I have drifted apart from him ya dig? It just feels kind of sad with so few spots available.


Impa

35% Chance

A likely echo, but I feel other echos are more likely than her. Her previous identity and popularity problems still exist, but a last minute goodie could happen.

50% Want

Indifferent. I mean she is cool, but if we got clones there are others I would prefer. Probably the best Zelda newcomer though.


Ashley

60% Chance

The fact her AT is mia is pretty big. I know some people might say well it was not in the demo, but the fact that it was not combined with her huge popularity makes it seem more likely. The badge arcade loved her, she got a lot of exposure from that. A good chance. Also mii costume

100% Want

She is cute, and I would definately be happy if she made it in. Promoted ATs seem cool to me. Also more Wario ware stuff is always good.


Also sorry for the miss, it is Impa not Chrom. Sorry for any confusion.

 

[Propeller Toad]

Captain Toad
Chance: 50%
- This is generous as a Toad fan, but it's important to note that Toad and Captain Toad are different character picks. It's true, we had a tough week seeing many characters deconfirmed especially with Toad being confirmed to being apart of Peach's moveset (though much better implemented). However, it strikes me odd that Sakurai suddenly implemented so much of Toad as a fighter in her kit in this game (plus a rescaled and new model) while Daisy got Blue Toad as opposed to Toadette. Toadette herself has been rising up to prominence as well in recent Mario platformers/rpgs/spinoffs as well - so I'd have expected Toadette to be her partner as opposed to a blue toad. Instead, both Captain and Toadette are absent completely so far from this Smash. Additionally, we now have 3 Links on the roster as well as the aspect of echo fighters as well - having one playable Toad on the roster while two make cameos via Peach/Daisy is not far in the realm of possibility.

New IP from the Wii U era, character that can bring a very unique playstyle (how to sub over his jumps or how they will work as well as possible stage manipulation/zoning akin to his game), and even getting two ports for 3DS and Switch respectively for his game in the next month - I do believe Captain Toad has a shot of being playable despite Toad's deconfirmation. Am I as confident as before e3? No, as it seems the idea of Toad being Peach's bodyguard has been expanded upon in this game and that is Sakurai's vision for Toad himself. However, Captain Toad is a distinct character despite his resemblance to Toad. This is the game that will determine how Sakurai views him imo. Not giving him any more than 50% as I feel he is hit or miss at this point - it's up to Sakurai and Nintendo's view at this point.

Want - 100%
- I've wanted Toad for almost 16 years now, and it's clear that this title won't have the Toad playable. However, this means little to Captain Toad who can bring his own playstyle into the fray while potentially repping elements of Toad as well (Treasure Tracker has many homages to SMB2 as well). I feel Captain Toad is either going to get in, or be confirmed for an assist trophy/stage element at least by July 13th, when the ports for his game are released (perhaps as a pic of the day on the official site). To me, this would not be a true Smash Bros. Ultimate celebrating Nintendo's most recognizable characters without a playable Toad of sorts, and I feel with the lack of Captain Toad or Toadette even showing up so far still provides both the intrepid explorers a chance. Highly recommend seeing YoshiandToad 's vid to see how the lack of jumps can be easily substituted with alternate playstyles - his lack of jumps due to the backpack can very well give Captain Toad a unique playstyle that no other character can emulate at all, and perhaps Sakurai might take interest in this element. I feel this is what makes the Captain stand out in comparison to many other characters - many view the lack of jumping as a negative, but I feel this can give Captain Toad even more unique options to get over this.

King K. Rool
Chance: 65%
- I feel King K. Rool has a good shot of being playable especially considering Ridley's recent confirmation. He has a ton of popularity and I can't say no to having another villain! DK could certainly use more reps as well - it's criminal as to how underrepresented it has been from characters to assist trophies (Rambi? Cranky?). Relevancy does hurt him, but DKC has quite the history as well - and it would be doing the king quite some injustice to not represent him.

Want: 70%
- I'm not a big fan of the character himself, but I loved DKC 1 and 2 along with Tropical Freeze. The series could use some new faces in Smash and having seen K Rool supporters over the years, I think it's time they finally got their croc (if they can get both him and Dixie it truly would be a celebration!).

Chrom
Chance: 35%
- I feel Chrom has potential to get in as an echo fighter/alt like Alph for Marth or Lucina/DLC. Chrom was teased back in Smash 4, but perhaps the aspect of echo fighters/alternate costumes being improved might increase his chances.

Want: 60%
- I always liked Chrom, and wouldn't mind having him on board alongside Robin.

Ashley
Chance: 60%
- This is odd, but I feel very positive about Ashley being in the roster. Very popular character and can very likely bring a fun, unique and zanny kit to the game. WarioWare has been around for quite a while while Ashley has been promoted even outside of the series as well (Smash, prominence in Nintendo Arcade Badge, as well as her popularity in Japan). Having not been seen as an assist trophy as of yet in the demo only furthers my suspicions.

Want: 70%
- I think Ashley would be a very fun character to have on the roster. We could use another mage character and WW certainly has unique elements within the series to pull from. My younger sister would be amazed to see her too. ^^

 

[BluePikmin11]

My personal viewpoint on Captain Toad has changed. I still hold the same viewpoint of his spinoff series not being big enough for Sakurai to consider the character. I do not think we will get multiple unique newcomers from already represented franchises anymore. If any unique Mario newcomer were to be considered, it would be Geno since Sakurai seriously wanted him in Brawl and Smash 4 and acknowledged the immensely high demand for the character and his moveset potential. I do not believe Captain Toad will be happening at this point with the unique newcomer selection likely being tighter and smaller this time around.

x5 Octolings

 

[TCT~Phantom]

To clarify, it is Impa today, not Chrom. That was an error on my part.

 

[A Distant Demon]

There are some weirs assumptions bring made that have no correlation

W/E


Want
Captain Toad: 100%
With ridley, all vets back, and toad with Peach again, Captain is now my third most wanted after Viridi and Dixie. Nice

Impa: 20%
She would make a nice Echo, i guess. I have no other care though

Ashley: abstain
i imagine she wpuld be neat bu i have no ties to the series

K rool: 20%
for the fans who are cool, i guess. But i dont care much for him

EDIT
Chrom
70% want
I assumed he was gone for good . . .but now he has a shot?
Man talk about challenging your fate!

no noms

 

[MasterWarlord]

K. Rool Chance 90%: The playing field has radically changed. Z list veterans like Pichu are here because of fanservice, Ridley is here because of fanservice, and based off the roster choices, it seems to be more about that and making a "definitive" edition than making forced advertisements. K. Rool is the assumed first party winner of the ballot (since Ridley was deconfirmed for that game at the time), and is one of the only characters with any implication that he did well on the ballot through his Mii costume. The only thing that stops him now is irrelevance and Dixie Kong, but we could very well get both. I would not have given him such a high score before the Ridley presentation, but this bodes so much better for K. Rool, and a lot of competition has also got eliminated.

K. Rool Want 100%: He and Ridley are two peas in a pod in terms of fan demand, they were very commonly referred to as a pair even back during the Brawl and SSB4 days. He's a great character and it's just very weird to me he hasn't been in already, but now that fan demand has been made the well of excuses is seriously starting to run dry.

Captain Toad Chance 2%: It seems to me that Captain Toad was primarily expected/predicted rather than requested. Anyway, the reason this score is so low is because of the increased presence of the generic Toad. Peach's Toad now is used for the grab and throws, and Daisy also has the Toad. I think this was Sakurai's attempt to throw a bone to the Toad fans, and hey, they got off a lot better than the Waluigi fans. It is theoretically possible for Captain Toad to show up, but it would still look very strange to see him against the minion Toads in the other sets.

Captain Toad Want 0%: I've never liked Toad or any of his voices. I don't even like the Captain Toad game. The Mario character I wanted was Waluigi.

Ashley Chance 10%: This still seems like too minor of a character to have any reasonable chance, but she does have popularity in both the west and east. She's just a ways down the totem pole if polls are any indication. She gets a slightly higher score than usual on account of surviving the assist trophy wave.

Ashley Want 0%: I don't like Warioware and would sooner Captain Syrup, Rudy, or Shake King if we must have a second Wario character. I don't feel like Wario really warrants a second character anyway.

Nominate Fawful x5

 

[StrangeMann]

Oh boy, this is a big one:

King K Rool
Want: 100%
Chance: 66.6%

I'm going off of the assumption that DK is going to get a newcomer this game. I highly doubt DK isn't getting a newcomer this time.
There's only 3 possible options in my opinion:
-K Rool is the only DK newcomer (Chosen based on tremendous popularity)
-Dixie is the only DK newcomer (Chosen based on high popularity and relevency)
-K Rool and Dixie are both in (Dixie possibly as an echo of diddy, with his tail attacks removed)
In 2/3 of these scenarios, K. Rool is playable. I don't see Funky or Cranky being viable options before them (excepting the tiny possibility funky is a DK echo).
I will also remark that the Kremling King has a wide variety of potential moveset options from his various boss fights, and he was clearly acknowledged last game as a popular ballot character. I really like K Rool's design and character, and would really like to see him again. That being said, he does have a relevancy issue. If the 33.3% chance he doesn't get in holds, we'll know why he didn't get in this time. I'm really hoping the new Donkey Kong team at Nintendo consider reviving this character, or that he shows up in the Mario vs Rabbids DLC.

Impa
Want: 50%
Chance: 50%

Not really a fan of impa, but not really against her either. One of the more likely echo character options (for shiek), I definately feel she has enough of a reputation to achieve echo character status, and high affiliations with the shiekah in general increase her chances of being an echo with her high popularity among zelda newcomers. The only other possible outcome is that Tingle possibly becomes playable, but I just don't see it.

Ashley
Want: 60%
Chance: 50%

Don't play much Warioware, but she would definitely make for a cool character as a mage-type character. Magic abilities seem like a fun and unique prospect she could bring to the smash roster, and she is definitively the most popular and likely Warioware rep, notable for her EXTREME popularity in japan, being arguably more popular of a character than Wario himself there. I give this one a 50/50 that she's playable or she's an assist trophy again.

Captain toad
Want: 75%
Chance: 33.3%

I personally think Captain toad would be a fun and unique character to the smash bros roster. I understand he dresses and behaves differently than most normal toads. I would like him to be a playable character. After seeing the changes to Daisy/Peach's movesets, where toad has increased presence in both... I'm just not seeing it as likely that Sakurai thinks the same way. Then again, there's always a chance of a Toon link/Alfonso situation, so you never know for sure until the game comes out or we get an outright confirmation/deconfirmation.

Chrom
Want: 10%
Chance: 20%

A third fire emblem awakening rep? Although Chrom is a good character, I would rather not have a second fire emblem echo on the roster. The thing is, Robin wasn't even in the demo so we have no idea whether or not he's still in her final smash, and even if he isn't, do people honestly think we'll have 2 fire emblem echoes on top of all the other newcomers in this game? I'm just not seeing it after further thought, although I initially thought he might be a likely echo I'm having second doubts.

x5 Dixie Kong rerate

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

King K.Rool

Chance: 80%
It seems to me that Smash Ultimate is taking a more fanservicey approach. No doubt that K.Rool must have appeared on Sakurai's radar.

Want: 70%
Don't really support him but at this point I feel like he and his fans deserve it.

Captain Toad

Chance: 25%
Still think competition will be this guys main issue. Toads having a bigger role in Peach's/Daisy's moveset isn't enough for me to drastically lower his chances. If Waddle Dees returned in Dedede's moveset I still wouldn't write of Bandana Waddle Dee.

Chrom

Chance: 0.1%
Don't see how ''Echo fighters'' are supposed to make him actually have a shot. Someone tell me why in the hell would they add Chrom as an ''Echo figther'' of Marth/Ike? Never played an FE game but unlike our current Echo fighters he has nothing to do with those two to my knowledge. Don't think anyone rated him as a potential clone back when it was his day so I don't see why he should here. Then there are all the other obvious big problems like to much FE, being Robin's Final Smash, being a generic swordsmen, etc.

Impa

Chance: 15%
Makes more sense than Chrom as an Echo fighter but just because Sakurai gave clones an official name doesn't necessarily mean that they'll be a big focus when it comes to newcomers.

Ashley

Chance: 25%
We are only rerating her because of her not being spotted as an Assist Throphy yet. Guys, we still have 20+ Assist Throphies we don't know anything about. Decent chance she could be among them. And with the more limited amount of newcomers we'll be getting I can see her suffering from low priority.

My want scores for Captain Toad, Chrom, Impa and Ashley haven't changed.

TCT~Phantom mind if I keep Chrom in my post?

 

[Pacack]

We have all of one unique newcomer announced. Why is everyone assuming that Ridley's indicative of the entire roster??

 

[harukaamami]

Captain Toad

Want: 70%
Chance: 40%
I personally think he is the most relevant Nintendo character not in Smash and he would definitely have a Toadette alt, which is always nice. It's also perfectly possible to create a fun moveset for him. Him being more prominent as part of Peach's moveset does feel slightly like a consolation prize, however; not like anyone would mix up Peach's Toad with Captain Toad, though.

Ashley

Want 100%
Chance 70%
One of the big missing ATs. I personally think her chances are pretty high, but nothing is certain. After all, not all the ATs were in the demo. Besides the fact that she wasn't outright deconfirmed, there are other things that make me thing she might have a chance. She is one of the most popular Wario characters, only behind Wario himself; Wario Ware isn't a dormant franchise and there are rumors that Gold had been in the works for a while and a WW for the Switch is currently in production. She was also given clear preferential treatment over other WW or WL characters, getting multiple 3DS themes and being the only one to appear in Mario Maker. Also worth of note is that Wario Ware got its logo updated to the Wario Ware Gold version in the Ultimate's Japanese site. The big thing for me is, however, Arcade Bunny's appearance as a Assist Trophy. Ashley was incredibly prominent in Badge Arcade and served as one of the mascots along with Arcade Bunny and Nikki; she was part of crossovers with Splatoon, Mother, Monster Hunter and even a Lawson campaign. That the Arcade Bunny was chosen to be an AT makes it clear, to me, that Sakurai must be aware of Ashley's overall popularity. Besides that, it also doesn't hurt that the Arcade Bunny was explicitly an Ashley fanboy in the Japanese version of the game.

Chrom

Want 0%
Chance 40%
A literal no effort Echo, but I don't see him having priority over other similar Echoes. Shadow is incredibly popular, Dark Samus is part of an ongoing franchise that people believes needs more representation. Fire Emblem left Chrom behind years ago.

Impa

Want 70%
Chance: 50%
I'd love her, but she has more of a chance as an Echo of Sheik than as an actual completely new character.

 

[-VictoriaJustice-]

King K. Rool
Chance: 99%

We got Ridley. Sakurai explicitly mentioned that he was added due to his large fan demand overseas (i.e. the West). K. Rool is someone who pretty much annihilates Ridley in terms of popularity amongst the Smash fanbase. At this point with Ridley gone, King K. Rool is the single most popular character left and considering this is the Ultimate Smash Bros., I feel like this is definitely it.

Want: 100%

I've been supporting him for 15 years. It does not stop now.

Ashley:
Chance: 87%

She's immensely popular in Japan. Her AT is also strangely missing. She's too popular to cut and with WarioWare Gold coming soon, I would bet a lot of money on Ashley.

Want: 99%

I love her! She's awesome!

Captain Toad
Chance: 10%

I feel like Daisy is the only newcomer we're getting. I also see Geno as likelier and...well, there's a chance the Waluigi theory is true as well.

Want: 0%

I don't care about Captain Toad at all. Zero percent. I prefer Waluigi. He's funny.

 

[MasterWarlord]

We have all of one unique newcomer announced. Why is everyone assuming that Ridley's indicative of the entire roster??

Did we get Snake, Pichu, Ivysaur, Squirtle, and Young Link off of relevance? They're not retro characters who ignore the rules or anything. There was no indication those folks were coming back. They are there off of demand.

The decreased newcomer count also speaks to it being less about advertisements now. The biggest exception is probably Pokemon, which has little else to offer other than advertisements.

 

[SenSx]

King K.Rool

Chances: 80%
Want: 100%

The biggest fan favorite remaining, DK needs reps and Dixie is probably going to be an echo.
He got acknoledged witht he mii costume, there is so much things going for him I think it completely counter balance the muuuuhrelevance argument.



I'm not really familiar with the other characters but i'll give my view.



Captain Toad

Chances: 10%
Want: 50%

Ive always thought Toad was a deserving character for smash, but with the return of toad in peach and Daisy movesets in a more proeminent way, I really don't it see happening.



Impa

Chances: 10%
Want: 20%

She would be easy to do as an echo character, but I don't see her being requested that much...


Chrom

Chances: 40%
Want: 0%

A favorite FE character from what I've heard (and got a mii costume), and very easy to make and an echo.



Ashley

Chances: 20%
Want : 0%

I really don't see what's appealing in that character.
But she seems to have some support.

 

[CWCPT00]

King K. Rool

Chance: 30%

I feel like if he was going to be revealed it would’ve been at E3. He was a more requested character than Ridley but didn’t make it in for the time being. I feel like we won’t get both of them but we’ll see.

Want: 30%

Not a fan of seeing characters who haven’t been relevant for a long while, it would make me a bit salty if he got in over Dixie considering Dixie has much more going for her.

Chrom

Chance: 0%

I may be very harsh with this rating but I feel like his chances has passed. If Fire Emblem are getting a new character it will be from the new game that is coming out soon, I’m very confident that we will not be seeing Chrom in especially after the backlash Sakurai got with Fire Emblem characters.

Want: 0%

I don’t care for Fire Emblem and shouldn’t even have 3 characters let alone 6 characters.

Impa

Chance: 10%

Hard to find Zelda characters who are recurring nowadays and with Zelda getting Young Link back and now having 6 Zelda characters I think that’s Zelda finished.

Want: 5%

I couldn’t care less about the Zelda franchise and Impa would just be an addition where I would just say “okay, whatever”.

Ashley

Chance: 10%

WarioWare isn’t a big enough series to warrant a second newcomer and despite Ashley’s popularity in Japan, I feel like there is way too many characters that would have priority over her and with Ultimate not having as many newcomers as from the previous games I think her chances are slim.

Want: 25%

She’s cool but not someone I want, I would be happy for her fans though if she got in.

Captain Toad

Chance: 30%

I don’t think his chances has changed after E3, Toad and Captain Toad are completely different characters and I feel they will be treated differently and treated as if they had separated fan bases. However, with Daisy making it in I feel like she’s going to be the only Mario character for Ultimate, but I’m hoping Sakurai views Captain Toad to be a rep of his own franchise so that it can increase his chances a little but we’ll see what happens.

Want: 100%

My most wanted newcomer and it would be a damn shame if Daisy actually made it in over him imo, especially when Captain Toad already has a way better CV/resume than Daisy, he has his own game and jumped into that next step with Wario, Yoshi and DK and all of these characters got in because of their series’. There’s also so much potential with Captain Toad as well, not only would he bring something interesting from a move set perspective but he can also bring in a new stage from his game (with Wingo being a stage hazard) as well as soundtracks and Toadette being introduced as a alt/echo. He would bring a good amount of content into the game and I would be pretty upset if it was only Daisy as she is a clone and adds nothing else to the table (no offence to any Daisy fans).

 

[Deleted member]

Look at all the Splatoon content in Ultimate so far: notice how it's all based on stuff from Splatoon 1, and not Splatoon 2? Wouldn't they have made the effort to represent Splatoon 2 more, considering that it's on the same console Ultimate is coming to?

You forgot there's Mario Odyssey stuff like Cappy and that New Donk City stage, from a game released several months after Splatoon 2.

 

[Cosmic77]

We have all of one unique newcomer announced. Why is everyone assuming that Ridley's indicative of the entire roster??

Exactly! We only have three newcomers, and only one was blatant fanservice. Inklings were getting in regardless of how the Smash fanbase felt about them, and Daisy was only added because she's super iconic and obvious clone material.

Really don't understand how people can act so confident in saying K. Rool and Geno's chances skyrocketed. At best, their chances are the same.

Did we get Snake, Pichu, Ivysaur, Squirtle, and Young Link off of relevance? They're not retro characters who ignore the rules or anything. There was no indication those folks were coming back. They are there off of demand.

The decreased newcomer count also speaks to it being less about advertisements now. The biggest exception is probably Pokemon, which has little else to offer other than advertisements.

And Dr. Mario returned in Smash 4 because of relevance?

 

[Erimir]

K Rool
chance: 65%
want: 97%
I can certainly see this going either way. He's a fan favorite, particularly if they're catering to US fans. Ridley was in a similar situation but with larger impediments (size/odd proportions, less popular series, more grotesque and brutal than any other playable character, etc.), whereas K Rool would be very easy to adapt to Smash. Make him Bowser or Dedede size, his proportions are fine, easy overall appearance to design, he has several boss fight iterations with Smash-friendly attacks, some good alt costume options, cartoony goofy personality lends itself well to the game.

But is DK getting a character? There's only so much space. And Dixie is still competition, even if she's likely to end up as a Dark Pit-style echo*. But there's still a chance we could get both (but that probably requires Dixie to be an echo). While they've done a lot of the more obvious additions to the roster (hence part of why we're getting so many 3rd-parties now...), K Rool is still not a shoo-in. He hasn't been very relevant in the DK series for a while and we don't know when we're getting the next installment, much less whether K Rool will be in it. But he's one of the top contenders to be sure.

With Ridley now confirmed, K Rool is my most wanted newcomer along with Simon Belmont.

*Since echoes have to be very close to their base character, it seems perhaps that they can't differ in too many ways. Lucina has different general attributes (no tipper and attendant damage/knockback changes, slightly shorter, and a couple moves have slight changes, but her moveset looks identical) while Dark Pit has identical size/speed/weight/damage/knockback/etc. attributes except for jab combo, but has significant differences in a couple specials and his Final Smash. So Dark Pit style would mean modifying or totally changing three or four moves or so, but leaving everything else the same. Lucina style would mean changing some general attributes (for example, a Lucina style echo fighter Octoling could have much lower/higher ink usage but significantly weaker/stronger moves, perhaps?) but leaving the move set basically the same otherwise.

Chrom
chance: 15%
want: 10% (I don't generally want more Fire Emblem, and especially not more Fire Emblem clones)
Fire Emblem is already clone city with Marth/Lucina/Roy, so I don't think making an echo of Ike would be the highest priority. But he is a pretty good candidate, so he certainly has a non-negligible chance. He hasn't been deconfirmed yet, but I'd note that quite a few characters haven't had their Final Smashes shown and so it could just be coincidence. There is also a fair bit of competition in the Fire Emblem series, including for echo fighter spots.

Captain Toad
chance: 10%
want: 50% (I'm mostly indifferent)
His problems are the same as before. He doesn't have the greatest move set potential (although you could come up with something, and I guess we could have three Turnip throwers, sure why not) and he's not the biggest headlining character. But we have now, not just Peach but also Daisy, utilizing Toad even more than before. Now Toad is a counter attack and part of their grab and throw attacks. I know some fans don't see it that way, but this sort of thing (like adding Fiora to a final smash, or making Ridley a boss character/stage hazard) is seen by Sakurai as some consolation. Making Toad more prominent might be a response to the desire for a Toad fighter... and hence would mean that it's because there will be no standalone Toad fighter. On the other hand, Toad is a huge part of Mario series history, and Captain Toad would be a good way to give that representation. The chance isn't nothing, but there are definitely significant barriers.

Ashley
chance: 10%
want: 30%
I don't feel that the Wario series needs more representation, but Ashley is certainly the best candidate for a second Wario character.

Are we supposed to be rating Impa?

I'll just give similar notes to Chrom...

Impa
chance: 16%
want: 60% (I like Impa, but I like her better as a replacement for Sheik than a clone of her)
Zelda series is now also clone city with Link, Young Link and Toon Link (and Ganondorf himself being a Luigi-fied Captain Falcon...). But if you were looking for a non-Link echo fighter to add, Impa would be the most obvious choice. The only difference I would say she ought to have would be that Impa is a bit taller, but nothing about Sheik's move set would need to change, so they have nearly total flexibility* in how they want to tweak the Sheik design. There is some material to work with (Skyward Sword and Hyrule Warriors could give you some ideas for unique moves) if they want something more unique, or they could just give her a different grenade or whatever.

*By contrast, to return to the issue of Dixie. Dixie doesn't have a tail, so at a minimum her jab combo needs a different animation, if not to be totally reworked, and there'd be a strong motivation to give her at least one or two moves that utilize her hair (a new up-B, maybe used for grabs/throws). Dixie demands at least one change, and strongly suggests a couple others. But Impa could simply replace Sheik and with the new Final Smash, there'd be basically nothing to say "that's not how Impa should be!"

 

[Ze Diglett]

Oh, boy, here we go...

King Kuhrool
Chance: 90% (including DLC, before anyone screams at me for being absolutist in my predictions)
We have every reason to believe that fanservice will play a big part in how this game turns out; to put briefly what I've already said in countless other threads, we've already seen 1.) every newcomer return to please the fans (Sakurai himself said this), 2.) the confirmation of the single biggest fan-pleaser Smash has ever seen and likely ever will see, 3.) the implementation of several mechanical changes that Sakurai simply would not have added if he didn't listen to the fans, and 4.) the confirmation that this game will have fewer newcomer slots up for grabs than previous titles, therefore making sense to load those slots up with heavy hitters and fan favorites rather than left-field picks. Not to mention, the name of the game's literally Ultimate, and may well be Sakurai's last Smash as the one calling the shots, so such an angle being taken with this game just makes sense when you look at it that way. Beyond that, there's Emily Rogers' comments on how we, the fans, will "really enjoy the roster" to consider. K. Rool is basically the most requested candidate of our time, and at this point, they'd have to make an effort to completely ignore him and the noise his fans have made for him to not be playable, DLC or no. That, and there's the obvious thing that DK is kind of hurting for a new character at this point ("begging" is a better word), and his competition is basically limited to Dixie (possibly as an Echo, in which case she likely wouldn't hurt his chances at all) and Cranky, who may be out of the running entirely due to his cameo as a background element on Jungle Japes. I think Sakurai knows who the fans want at this point.

Want: 50%
If Ridley fans got their wish in spite of Sakurai's previous comments, K. Rool fans deserve it, too. Besides, he could be really neat as a fighter, even if I usually dislike playing as the heavyweights.

Chrom Impa
Chance: 20%
She arguably makes the most sense out of any potential Echo Fighter, as her main draw as a fighter, being a Sheikah warrior (sometimes), is kind of taken by Sheik. She's also surprisingly popular for how few games she's been in and how inconsistent her appearance is. If we get more Echoes, I expect her to be one of them.

Want: 0%
Ehh... I'm of the opinion that Zelda has more than enough representation character-wise, but if Sakurai really wants to throw her in as a glorified Alt. of Sheik, then go ahead, I guess.

Ashley
Chance: 30%
She's certainly got the popularity to be up for consideration (especially overseas, from what I hear), and the fact that her Assist Trophy hasn't shown up when she was popping up all over the place during the Smash 4 Invitational bodes well for her so far. However, we must consider that this build of Smush (yes, that's what we're calling it now, pass it on) doesn't have anywhere close to all the Assists that will be in the final roster, and she also may get edged out of the base roster by more heavily requested characters and Sakurai picks.

Want: 25%
More magic users, please. Beyond that, I like her design, I know she has her fans, and it'd be cool to see the WarioWare series get another fighter.

Captain Toad
Chance: 5%
Hoo, boy. Yeah, I've already said my piece on how I think this Smash will handle newcomer choices differently, and frankly, the competition from Geno in that regard is just too strong for Captain Toad to have much of a chance in the long run. Characters like Paper Mario and Geno would also run into a lot fewer logistical issues in implementation - how would you work around the Captain's inability to jump? his overtly sluggish mobility in general? the fact that most of his "abilities" are more tailored to an assisting role than an offensive one? etc. - which leads me to believe Sakurai would shoot for either of those two before Captain Toad, especially considering he personally has been pulling for Geno in particular for over a decade now. Forgive me, but I just can't see even Mario getting two unique newcomers when we already know the newcomer list is gonna be slim pickings to begin with, and since I'm considering Geno a near-lock for that spot, I just can't in good conscience rate the Captain any higher. Maybe next time.
Oh, and for the record, I don't think Toad being given an expanded role in Peach's moveset really counts for or against Captain Toad. Unlike some people, I recognize Toad the species as being separate from Captain Toad the character, so one being disconfirmed doesn't necessarily have any bearing on the other's chances. We'll have to see what it means in the long run, but I'm still not inclined to be optimistic here.

Want: 0%
My view on non-combatants in Smash is, and always has been, a firm and solid no, unless they solo-rep an entire franchise like Villager. We have Assist Trophies for those types of characters. Captain Toad is truly the ultimate non-combatant protagonist, having very few unique abilities even in his own game, being incredibly slow and clumsy most of the time, and even lacking the basic ability to jump due to his backpack, which is incredibly frustrating as he could basically skip his entire game if he just took the stupid thing off and sacrificed whatever's in there for the jumping capabilities of a regular Toad. Of the few unique abilities he does have, I find them all either overly challenging to pull off correctly (terraforming in general) or just not that interesting or unique in what they'd provide in Smash (swinging a pickaxe over his head, riding a minecart, throwing turnips). Geno would be strictly more hype as a reveal and would have a much more interesting and logistically sound moveset, Paper Mario would represent a major spinoff series that has thus far seen very little in the way of Smash representation and also pack some interesting moves of his own (maybe even featuring cameos from his various Partners), and even left-field picks like Fawful would at least be surprising and likely more interesting as a fighter. As far as Mario newcomers, I'd take pretty much anyone else - except Waluigi, but we already know he's done for.

 

[Dudery and FAITH forever]

these are just my opinions so please dont take offense to them, for my words dont warrent the whole community or are enough to even reach or mean anything to smash and nintendo at all, just a person giving chances and stuff as requested

King K. Rool chance 60% i could sit here and type up a hefty amount of reasons why he should be in besides the obvious villian/high request/classic char statements but it would take awhile and i dont have too much time, so i would of put him higher but after the comment from sakurai on the e3 direct saying "i hope you aren't expecting too many new fighters this time" i feel this could go either way with sakurai reserving the last few spots with shocking 3rd parties or advertisement chars, i hope the fan demand and ballot results change his mind.

Want 100% hes the reason i joined so i could support him with ridley as my number 2 so of course my want for him is as is. earthworm jim is my number 3 but we know hes died from the peoples mind long ago.

impa want 0% i dont really care for her but i see why people like her and if she does make it then 1 more character to have fun with!

chance 30% i dont think her chances are high, to me she seemed like a side character from zelda who you see every now and then but not too important like tingle but with echo fighters being a thing her chances are higher for being a sheik echo.

captain toad want 0% again a character whom i dont really care if they get in or not,wouldnt mind him or dislike him

chance 25% i dont think he will be added, the only way i can see him added is through echo fighter but again that cant happen because captain toad is too different on his own to copy off another fighter,plus i dont know how he will jump as in his games he cant and its a big mechanic in the game focusing on the "you cant jump cuz you too heavy" thing


ahsley want 2% i dont know much about the wario ware series so i cant really say much, she looks pretty cool,catchy song....new wario char would be pretty cool but i would think waluigi would come first from the wario series than ashley even though waluigi isnt even that involved with wario as much as he is with spin off sports.

Chance 20% i dont know too much to really give a chance percent, but she seems cool and seems to have a decent amount of fans so you never know what may happen, too me though she seems like those characters who have alot of fans and decent demand but the character itself isnt important enough or well know to make it in i;e skull kid, lip, tingle, groose, etc


Simon Belmont nominated x5

 

[MasterWarlord]

And Dr. Mario returned in Smash 4 because of relevance?

The ratio of fanservice newcomers to non fanservice newcomers is a lot bigger if we count each cut veteran as an individual newcomer, and that's all we have to go on. Inklings, while they can be argued in the advertisement/relevance camp, were still very popular, moreso than most of the SSB4 newcomers. Yes, cut veterans aren't equal in effort to full newcomers, but they're not just nothing. A good chunk of those veterans have no reason to come back other than for fans.








Forgot to rank Chrom.

Chrom Chance 10%: I guess it is theoretically possible for him to get an echo now, but even during SSB4 days I mostly saw people who were predicting him rather than wanting him. The primary echoes I think we're looking at are Dixie, Funky, Dark Samus, and weirdly, Shadow. Not saying it can't happen.

Chrom Want 0%: There are better Fire Emblem characters that aren't picked entirely because they are main characters. I don't think we need two clone characters of the same base character from the same game.

 

[Pacack]

Did we get Snake, Pichu, Ivysaur, Squirtle, and Young Link off of relevance? They're not retro characters who ignore the rules or anything. There was no indication those folks were coming back. They are there off of demand.

The decreased newcomer count also speaks to it being less about advertisements now. The biggest exception is probably Pokemon, which has little else to offer other than advertisements.

No, they were not added due to relevance.

They were added because they're veterans. Just like Dr. Mario, Mewtwo, Roy, and Lucas in the last game. Sakurai apparently just decided that bringing back characters from previous games was what he wanted to do. Sure, odds are that the ballot played a role in that, but it could have just as easily been that Sakurai wanted to bring back Character X, Y, and Z and decided, "you know, we already have the movesets for these characters finalized and whatnot, so let's just get the rest of them."

There's no concrete evidence that popularity is the only thing being considered. Ridley could very well be the exception given how loud the outcry was for him.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

We have all of one unique newcomer announced. Why is everyone assuming that Ridley's indicative of the entire roster??

They're not. The clear difference in how this roster seemed to have been handled so far in contrast to how the roster was introduced during all the previous games is why people think this roster will be more oriented towards fanservice than ever. This is the first game where Sakurai went out of his way to prioritize bringing back every single veteran because he felt that was what players would want as opposed to even Melee where Ness was initially planned to be replaced. Unlike the Initial reveal of previous games, there is no Ice Climbers/ZSS/WFT-style curveball newcomer character that was revealed for this game with every single newcomer character revealed so far being popular in some way, shape or form. It doesn't mean every single character included will be popular but you still cannot deny this game has been handled differently from all the other games so far.

 

[Pokechu]

im only doing toad and KKR bc i can't judge the others lol

Captain Toad:

Chance: 80%

This seems (well, is) really high, especially with there being limited newcomers, but Toad being Peach's move doesn't change CT's chances; they are different characters, after all. Peach has had Toad in her dress since Melee so even if Toad got in I don't see why this move would have to be changed. With CT's prominence in the Mario series with his own spinoff game and appearing in every mainline Mario since Galaxy (+ being a big part of 3D World), I'm still very confident in Captain Toad's chances. His quirk of not jumping can be what attracts Sakurai and can easily be used to create a playstyle only he can offer. He obviously scored well in the ballot judging from Toad's Mii costume and his promotion in Peach's moveset, so nothing aside from the limited newcomer number is stopping him now.
With this being some sort of a swan song for the Smash series, not only am I expecting them to focus on the fans (with Ridley) but also focus on the missing Nintendo All-Stars, such as Toad/CT. (also I don't think daisy is preventing any other mario newcomer to be in because it's not like hardly any time was spent on daisy)

Plus, why is Blue Toad used by Daisy, and not Toadette? I'm banking on her being an alt of CT or an easy Echo.

Want: 100%

Toads should have been in Smash since Brawl or Melee. This little ol' mushroom? He's a cutie! Embarrass Plus, if he brings Toadette with him, even better!

King K Rool

Chance: 25%

Still not relevant in his home series (RIP :^( )and while he probably did GREAT on the ballot, I'm not sure if his popularity alone will get him in. Not to mention there's Dixie, so.....

Maybe my opinion on him will change if we see more fanservice newcomers, but we've only seen Inkling, Ridley and Daisy.

Want: ABSTAIN

Honestly I'd put 0% but that's not right for his fans and it wouldn't be fair because the only DK games I've played are the only ones he hasn't been in.

 

[PsychoJosh]

Oh, I forgot to nominate somebody. I nominate Master Chief x5.

 

[Llort A. Ton]

King K. Rool
Chance- 75%
Not changing my score. This game seems to be going all in on fanservice, and now that Ridley is in, I think the next most popular character has a solid shot of entering the battle.

Want- 100%
Hes been my most wanted for years. If he got in, I would consider this roster perfect since I already got my boy back.

Impa
Chance- 45%
She has the highest chance of being considered for a Zelda character. With echo fighters now a thing, she could be an easy fit over Shiek. However, predicting these will be tough, so Im not certain. But shes on the echo radar.

Want- 60%
Shed be a fine addition. More Zelda is always good in my book.

Ashley

Chance- 60%
She has the popularity factor big time in Japan. She also has no obvious reasons to become an echofighter.

Want- 60%
Shed be a fun inclusion, and I like her theme song. I wouldve chosen Waluigi to escape the AT capsule, though

Captain Toad

Chance- 45%
The fact that Toad is more active in Peachs moveset doesnt kill Captain, but it does make me womder. With tight roster space, he may miss the base roster boat.

Want- 75%
Treasure Tracker was better than 3D World, if you ask me. Id be happy to see him join.

Chrom

Chance- 30%
Chrom has been a popular character in Smash specualtion for the past 5 years, while he may still be part of Robins moveset. But, the fact that many final smashes are changed and dcho fighters exist give Chrom one last breath of hope. If he was a big enough request on the ballot I could see it happening.

Want- 10%
For the Chrom fans out there. It was one thing to deny him, but they memed on hisgrave too. Other than that, I dont want more FE characters, but an echo fighter wouldnt hurt.

Scorpion X 1
Thwomp X 4

 

[True Blue Warrior]

You forgot there's Mario Odyssey stuff like Cappy and that New Donk City stage, from a game released several months after Splatoon 2.

The game already finished development before January 2017. That argument doesn't really work as a valid comparison.

 

[wildvine47]

To clarify, it is Impa today, not Chrom. That was an error on my part.

May as well go ahead and do both now, seeing as how so many people have already rated him. Frees up a slot for the also-commonly-voted Isaac to get a rerate perhaps.

Captain Toad

Chance: 33% - Yeah, I’m of the opinion that his chances took a serious blow yesterday. Toad =/= Captain Toad, but Sakurai may well see an increase in prominence in Peach (and Daisy’s) movesets to be enough for the whole species.

Want: 60% - Of the Mario candidates, he’s really the only one left that works. Waluigi died, Daisy’s in, and now all eyes are on the good Captain himself. I’d like to see him just to finally complete the set, but he’s far and away not someone I’m truly clamoring for.

King K. Rool: 75% - Ridley getting in must be doing things to my mind, because suddenly K. Rool seems like one hell of a contender. Between ballot results confirmed to be involved this go around and the seeming emphasis on fan demand, K. Rool has a really great case this time for inclusion. I’m not going to go so far as to call him a lock, but if Sakurai really only has limited roster slots, K. Rool definitely would be one of the ones to give him the most bang for his buck. The common argument against him being western-designed goes further out the window this game as well. This time, we have both Diddy and Meta-Ridley repping Western devs, so it doesn’t seem like that was really ever a problem to begin with.

Want: 100% - With Ridley confirmed, (I still can’t believe I can truthfully write that aaaaaaaa) K. Rool has found himself at he unprecedented number 1 spot on my most wanted list. Getting both him and Ridley in the same game would be a dream come true, and it being a very real possibility has me so overjoyed. Him getting in would basically be the last big get for me. There’s other characters I want, like Dark Matter, Scorpion, and Impa (who is also looking newly likely), but none of them stack up to how much I’ve wanted Ridley and K. Rool. Him getting in would truly make this the ultimate game for me, even more so than it already is.

Impa: 70% - I think we’re due to see Impa get a big, big jump in chances after today, and it’s easy to see why. Not only is she the most recurring and popular Zelda option not yet on the roster, which already made her the most likely contender in my eyes, she just got a get-out-of-jail-free card with Echo Characters. Even if she ends up being a low priority unique newcomer due to other heavier hitters outclassing her, for once her multitude of designs HELPS her. Her HW incarnation makes perfect sense if they’re looking for a unique newcomer, and her design from Skyward Sword would be perfect for a Sheik echo. With Zelda characters purposefully drawing from across the series this time, her Skyward Sword incarnation makes even more sense to further that idea. Everything looks to be coming up Impa.

Want: 100% - Impa now clocks in at my fourth most wanted, and as a bonus, my favorite incarnation of her, the Skyward Sword one, now has a WAY better shot at being her chosen look. If an Echo is how we’re gonna get Impa, I’d rather have that than no Impa at all. You’ll see the same rating for Dark Samus tomorrow most likely, who’s now climbed the ranks to be my number 5. Man this Smash might just be the one to give me almost everything I’ve ever wanted from Smash, and it has me all giddy. I love this series.

Chrom: 65% - Echoes were THE best possible thing for this guy. What once was ridicule throughout Smash 4 about him being too similar to Ike now becomes his strongest case for inclusion. Not only that, but Ike’s Chrom color disappeared when he doubled up on outfits, and Robin’s Final Smash is conspicuously absent thus far. I never thought I’d say this, but Chrom’s lucky day may be sooner than we thought.

Want: 85% - As a unique character, no thanks. As an echo? It’s time for Sakurai to hold true to his word and give Chrom a chance another day.

Ashley: 68% - Badge Bunny showing up in the AT category while she goes missing is VERY suspicious. I’m definitely guilty of underrating her, as I didn’t realize just how big of a deal she is in Japan. If the West got their white whale in Ridley, it seems likely that Japan too, will get theirs in Ashley.

Want: 25% - I still may not like the idea of her taking a spot up, especially with roster slots being as tight as they are this time, but I gotta face facts, and those are considerably on Ashley’s side this time. Ah well, can’t win em all.

 

[Cosmic77]

Seems like K. Rool's chance score will actually increase. Not what I expected, but I guess there's no way you can predict how people will respond to things.

I'll make one final point by saying what I told the Ridley support thread a few weeks ago. "If he isn't revealed at E3, I'd start lowering your expectations quite a bit. There's not much of a reason for Nintendo to hold off revealing such a popular character at a time when they'd have their largest audience."

 

[Pacack]

K. Rool is someone who pretty much annihilates Ridley in terms of popularity amongst the Smash fanbase.

I sincerely doubt that this is the case. Remember Smashboards =/= the Smash fanbase at large.

They're not. The clear difference in how this roster seemed to have been handled so far in contrast to how the roster was introduced during all the previous games is why people think this roster will be more oriented towards fanservice than ever. This is the first game where Sakurai went out of his way to prioritize bringing back every single veteran because he felt that was what players would want as opposed to even Melee where Ness was initially planned to be replaced.

And how does Sakurai's desire to please the fanbase that wants veterans correlate with an alleged desire to include more "fanservice" pics? The two can stand separately, and we have an extremely small pool of newcomers to draw conclusions from.

Unlike the Initial reveal of previous games, there is no Ice Climbers/ZSS/WFT-style curveball newcomer character that was revealed for this game with every single newcomer character revealed so far being popular in some way, shape or form. It doesn't mean every single character included will be popular but you still cannot deny this game has been handled differently from all the other games so far.

It's being handled differently in that all the veterans are coming back. However, this does not necessitate the rest of Sakurai's picks being Ridley-esque.

Again, we had only one unique newcomer revealed for E3 this year. Aside from Ridley, we have Inkling (who, mind, was in regardless of popularity) and Daisy, who's an easy inclusion ala Lucina.

Making a conclusion about what Sakurai's going to do based on what he has done thus far isn't even accurate with a sample of 64. Why would it suddenly be accurate with a sample of 10? (, Inkling, Daisy, Ridley)

 

[Kyon9898]

Captain Toad: 40% chance.

Though I do think his chances were lowered due to Daisy, I'm still sure if we got another Mario character it would be Captain Toad, would have been Waluigi but he's an AT. Good amount of requests

How much do I want this character? 20%.

Not really interested in his character tbh, the low score doesn't mean I hate him and would welcome Captain Toad to the roster if he were included

King K Rool: 60%

I'm fairly familiar with how much people want this character, I wouldn't mind seeing him playable as the latest DK rep we got was from Brawl, after that noting, I'm sure we'll see King K.Rool (one day). Highly requested

How much do I want this character? 40%

Yeah, I'm not in a rush to see K.Rool playable in Smash, honestly. Though I think it would be pretty cool.

Ashley: 70%

Now, you can probably tell by my avatar Ashley was gonna be high on my list for a few reasons. I'll go into more detail now. So, in 2015, Smash 4 released; this is where Ashley's popularity grew a lot. Ever since this game Ashley has appeared time and time again, via 3ds themes which sold pretty well in Japan, she had three of them,

She has also been in games such as Mario Maker, being chosen instead of the other WarioWare characters, hell, 9-volt had sprites for Mario Bros in WarioWare, but still left out in favor of Ashley. Now in Smash brothers, she has been treated very well. Let me list a few things.

-Assist trophy: This to me is just one step closer to becoming a playable character in most cases, not for Waluigi though. Her model could easily be reworked and changed into a fully playable fighter.

-Songs: Ashley's song alone has given her a lot of recognition among Smash gamers. She is the only character to have multiple versions of her song as far as I'm aware. Even in Japan, she got her own updated song in the form of Ashley's song VER 2 These songs hit one million views on Youtube too, which is most than any Wario character song.

-Mii outfits: I've got a good gut feeling Ashley's Mii outfit is a result of the ballot, I could be wrong but still, Ashley made it as both AT and outfit for the Mii's.

And lastly, Nintendo's big push for Ashley. It's no secret Japan just adores Ashley, which is why she's highly possible. She's in numerous lists for newcomers in Japan. The Badge Arcade, we all know at this point at how she was basically the mascot for it. We'd get at least a few Ashley badges monthly. If it wasn't popular Nintendo wouldn't have kept making them, but they did.
She even has her own two comics from the result of her 3ds theme and badge appearances. Hell, Nintendo even teased us on April Fools day promoting Ashley's new standalone game, Crazy Galaxy; they know we'd have wanted that.

This E3 deconfirmed wanted newcomers such as Waluigi, Lyn, Bomberman, etc; but why leave out Ashley? It's easy to tell somebody "She just isn't in this build.", however, they fail to understand that Ashley is highly requested, so why not deconfirm her now if she's wanted. You can say the same about the other newcomers but with Wario confirmed they would have shown Ashley, right?

And you may say the WW assists aren't ready, but do you know how many red flags would be set if Kat and Ana showed but not Ashley?

Her odds are very high in my opinion. Now, onto ---

How much do I want this character? Well beyond 100%

I've been waiting for five years for Ashley to become a playable character. I would not like to wait another 8. I ain't getting younger. I am extremely hopeful for Ashley's inclusion in the upcoming game Smash Bros Ultimate. She has been my top pick since I ever wanted characters in Smash Bros. Her chances are very high to become playable. With an upcoming WarioWare game and a rumored WarioWare Switch; Ashley is still relevant.

Not just the Arcade, but Nintendo themselves have kept Ashley relevant through the years WarioWare has been absent. WarioWare Gold started development in 2015, perhaps around the time Ashley has been kept relevant and Smash 5 started. This just lines up too good.

 

[MasterWarlord]

Thread is moving fast enough I missed we are in fact ranking Impa and not Chrom apparently, so have yet another ranking.

Chance - 30%: This is only as an echo, of course, but the direct was quite the shakeup. Now that Pig Ganon is confirmed basically dead, this is probably the most likely Zelda newcomer now. That doesn't mean it's very likely, but it's a recurring Zelda character and would give Zelda a true newcomer other than the return of a 3rd Link.

Want - 10%: She's alright. I mainly liked her addition as a way to overwrite Sheik since she is relevant and Sheik was a disguise Zelda donned for 5 seconds in one game and never fought in. Sheik's not going anywhere, though, so this score is lower than it could be.

 

[MasterWarlord]

I sincerely doubt that this is the case. Remember Smashboards =/= the Smash fanbase at large.

K. Rool has more proof of his popularity around ballot time because of various polls conducted during the time where Ridley was deconfirmed. That doesn't necessarily mean K. Rool is more popular, but there is more to document it, such as the regularly reposted source gaming poll, the time where his popularity mattered.

Ridley's popularity, along with that of the Metroid franchise, is almost exclusively western. IIRC, Sakurai said Ridley was added because of "demand overseas", meaning the US.

 

[SenSx]

Seems like K. Rool's chance score will actually increase. Not what I expected, but I guess there's no way you can predict how people will respond to things.

I'll make one final point by saying what I told the Ridley support thread a few weeks ago. "If he isn't revealed at E3, I'd start lowering your expectations quite a bit. There's not much of a reason for Nintendo to hold off revealing such a popular character at a time when they'd have their largest audience."

As if they did not have other big hype character reveals in store left, as if they would show all the most popular ones all at once 7 Monts before release, and as if E3 was the only time to introduce newcomers.