Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Pacack]

I did play Xenoblade X, and I never felt like Elma was the main character. She always felt like a questgiver/deuteragonist to me. The comparison to Pyra might have been off, but the point I wanted to get across was that I can’t see a sidekick get in over the main, playable character.

Elma has a lot more going for her than Cross does, though. Namely, set designs, weapons, and abilities.

 

[Diddy Kong]

Impa is now DEFINITELY one of the most underrated characters in speculation.

In terms of character satisfaction:

: 70%
- 'Twas to be expected. He looks okay, I prefer his Brawl design overall. Kind of a tame, but well deserved return. I just thought I'd be more excited for his return, but am not.

: 45%
- Innitally I was heavily against their return, but now that I noticed the other Climber won't act during grabs, I like them being back. They where just about THE most expected returning veterans so...

: 50%
- Don't really care much, but he's fun to fight against. Glad for his fans that he's back, easily the most requested returning veteran of them all. Extremely satisfied that Sakurai got the deal with Konami to work. They probably only did it out of business interesst however because Smash 4 sold pretty great so... Impressive that he's back, but I just don't care too much personally.

: 90%
-Who doesn't love the Tiny Turtle Pokemon? Was my first starter ever on Pokemon Red honestly. Nostalgia to the max! He seems very fun now and the added watery effects really help him. NEVER would've dared to expect his return! That's the most exciting part about Squirtle returning honestly.

: 75%-
-Yeah it sounds hypocritical, but I don't care as much for Ivysaur as I do for Squirtle. The 2nd evolution stage is the least memorable of them all. But yeah Ivysaur had an awesome playstyle I can greatly appriciate. Hugely considering using Pokemon Trainer for fun now.

: 80%
-The fact they revamped this concept and maybe the Down B Pokemon Switch so much more flexible and NO DAMNED STAMINA really makes this return exciting. Kinda dissapointed that Charizard is tagged with them yet again, but it makes sense in terms of a veteran returning standpoint.

: 85%
-NEVER would've expected the return of Pichu! Who would've!? Animations are cute as **** and am happy to give Pichu a go yet again! Seems far less of a joke character this time as well, and the Rage mechanic might actually work in it's favor this time. Easily one of my most hyped returning veterans, and that's not ironical.

: 85%
-Also never would've thought this to be possible. Especially not since we already have Toon Link, and Young Link returning means 3 Links being playable. But know what? I really don't care! It's awesome Young Link is back, and honestly the only "Smash Switch" dream I ever had before Ulitmate was announced had it feature Young Link intensively. So am glad he's in, and totally down to check out what he has to offer since Melee!

 

[Arcanir]

I did play Xenoblade X, and I never felt like Elma was the main character. She always felt like a questgiver/deuteragonist to me. The comparison to Pyra might have been off, but the point I wanted to get across was that I can’t see a sidekick get in over the main, playable character.

Eh, Cross is more like a viewpoint character in terms of the main story. When you get down to it, they don't do much as most of the actions they do are minor contributions such as weighing in on an opinion from another character or assisting them in certain roles. There's very few times where they're given a lot of weight as a character in terms of the story, and it's far more limited compared to other characters (Elma, Lin, Lao, etc.).

Elma (and Lin) drive the plot a hell of a lot more then Cross does. The Villains interacts with her (every major villain has a major interaction with Elma, and some of them with Lin), characters have more personal stakes with them (including spoiler, who calls out Elma personally), her actions drive the plot a lot more (ex. Elma calling for the team to attack the Zhu Pharg, asking for a duel with Ga Jiarg, and of course what happens in the backstory), and so on. Cross is just... there in terms of the main story, they don't do much, they just exist for us as players to exist in the plot and that's it. It's nowhere close to comparable to Rex and Pyra's relationship as there's much more weight on Elma as a character then there is any other main character, and that can't be ignored when placing value on which character between the two could take priority in choosing one from X.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Please stay on topic and discuss overrated and underrated characters. If you like/dislike Elma that’s fine, but focus on voting.

 

[YoshiandToad]

1. King K. Rool

The big guy is a fan favorite. Ridley paves the way for him so well. Sakurai acknowledges fan demand, it is his finest hour.

What?

K. Rool.

Underrated.

On Smashboards.

Is this bizarro world?

King K. Rool is anything but underrated on these boards. To say otherwise whilst some are calling him a lock seems contradictory. Is he overrated? Not neccesarily, but he sure as hell isn't underrated sitting as high on the ranks of the top ten as he is. I'm sorry but literally what?

Underrated:
3. Ashley
Much as I dislike her, I cannot deny that her NOT showing up as an AT thus far is odd. With a Mii outfit under her belt and true blue Japanese popularity, Ashley is looking more and more likely. It'll be weird to see her make it to Wario's side before Waluigi however.

2. Impa
Now Echoes is a thing and Zelda no longer handcuffed to one specific game her Smash, Impa's time to come in as a Sheik 'Echo' seems stronger than ever.

1. Isabelle
See Ashley and Impa's points and then combine to create Isabelle with an echoes Villager set. Does it suit her? Nope. Sakurai didn't mind Daisy using Toads however and she may even be able to float so Isabelle using stuff that Villager can use doesn't seem so weird to me anymore. She's also one of the most popular characters not included yet.


Overrated:
3. Captain Toad
Slightly. As much as it pains me to say this, with Toad himself now being MORE of a fighter and having more poses there's a stronger possibility Sakurai now feels that those Toad additions to Peach and Daisy's movesets will sate us Toad fans desire to see the fungus do battle.
There's still a slight possibility said models will be used for Captain Toad, and it's a bit suspicious to me that Daisy's Toad isn't the more famous Toadette but instead 3D World's Toad, but for now it's looking less likely than likely for him.

2. Pick a third party. Any third party.
With Snake and ALL the previous third party characters and an emphasis on togetherness, most third parties now seem greatly overestimated. Poor Bomberman, whom I'd previously considered a strong contender was forced into an Assist Trophy role for his debut like he was a side character.

1. Decidueye
Well damn. Not only did Ivysaur return taking away that grass element that gave him so much support, EVERY Pokemon came back including the Trainer. Whilst Pokemon can frankly have as many characters as it damn well wants being the second biggest Nintendo gaming franchise, it's hard to deny the return of Squirtle, Ivysaur and Pichu bulks out the Pokemon roster a lot already.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

What?

K. Rool.

Underrated.

On Smashboards.

Is this bizarro world?

King K. Rool is anything but underrated on these boards. To say otherwise whilst some are calling him a lock seems contradictory. Is he overrated? Not neccesarily, but he sure as hell isn't underrated sitting as high on the ranks of the top ten as he is. I'm sorry but literally what?

Underrated:
3. Ashley
Much as I dislike her, I cannot deny that her NOT showing up as an AT thus far is odd. With a Mii outfit under her belt and true blue Japanese popularity, Ashley is looking more and more likely. It'll be weird to see her make it to Wario's side before Waluigi however.

2. Impa
Now Echoes is a thing and Zelda no longer handcuffed to one specific game her Smash, Impa's time to come in as a Sheik 'Echo' seems stronger than ever.

1. Isabelle
See Ashley and Impa's points and then combine to create Isabelle with an echoes Villager set. Does it suit her? Nope. Sakurai didn't mind Daisy using Toads however and she may even be able to float so Isabelle using stuff that Villager can use doesn't seem so weird to me anymore. She's also one of the most popular characters not included yet.


Overrated:
3. Captain Toad
Slightly. As much as it pains me to say this, with Toad himself now being MORE of a fighter and having more poses there's a stronger possibility Sakurai now feels that those Toad additions to Peach and Daisy's movesets will sate us Toad fans desire to see the fungus do battle.
There's still a slight possibility said models will be used for Captain Toad, and it's a bit suspicious to me that Daisy's Toad isn't the more famous Toadette but instead 3D World's Toad, but for now it's looking less likely than likely for him.

2. Pick a third party. Any third party.
With Snake and ALL the previous third party characters and an emphasis on togetherness, most third parties now seem greatly overestimated. Poor Bomberman, whom I'd previously considered a strong contender was forced into an Assist Trophy role for his debut like he was a side character.

1. Decidueye
Well damn. Not only did Ivysaur return taking away that grass element that gave him so much support, EVERY Pokemon came back including the Trainer. Whilst Pokemon can frankly have as many characters as it damn well wants being the second biggest Nintendo gaming franchise, it's hard to deny the return of Squirtle, Ivysaur and Pichu bulks out the Pokemon roster a lot already.

Let me rephrase that.

I honestly think K. Rool is a lock right now. That is why he is underrated.

 

[Opossum]

Abstaining from underrated two and three, but for underrated one, I'm going with Isabelle.

For overrated, I'm going with:
K. Rool
Rayman
Chibi-Robo

 

[Pacack]

Most Overrated:
3. Rex and Pyra
This game seems to be focusing on characters that were requested highly on the ballot. Rex and Pyra weren't requested for the ballot whatsoever because they didn't exist yet. Further, their design wasn't finalized until after roster selection had been finished. There's no way they're more likely than not if we're not including DLC.

2. Celica
With every character returning, I don't see us getting another Fire Emblem character at all, especially if more popular requests like Lyn couldn't make it.

1. Decidueye
Almost self-explanatory. I doubt we're getting another Pokemon character now that we have nine. DLC is possible for a Pokemon newcomer, but even then, Decidueye would likely be passed over in favor of a Gen 8 Pokemon.

Most Underrated:
3. Funky Kong
Echos being a thing makes him very likely suddenly.

2. Dark Samus
See the above, but combine it with the desire for increased Metroid representation, her being the main antagonist of the Prime series (which is getting a new game,) and her absence from the Assist Trophies shown off, and she's suddenly looking like one of the most likely characters.

1. Simon Belmont
Vergeben. Literally all I need to say.

Let me rephrase that.

I honestly think K. Rool is a lock right now. That is why he is underrated.

Not to be too argumentative, but I really wouldn't go that far. Dixie Kong does exist, after all.

 

[Opossum]

Most Overrated:
3. Rex and Pyra
This game seems to be focusing on characters that were requested highly on the ballot. Rex and Pyra weren't requested for the ballot whatsoever because they didn't exist yet. Further, their design wasn't finalized until after roster selection had been finished. There's no way they're more likely than not if we're not including DLC.

2. Celica
With every character returning, I don't see us getting another Fire Emblem character at all, especially if more popular requests like Lyn couldn't make it.

1. Decidueye
Almost self-explanatory. I doubt we're getting another Pokemon character now that we have nine. DLC is possible for a Pokemon newcomer, but even then, Decidueye would likely be passed over in favor of a Gen 8 Pokemon.

Most Underrated:
3. Funky Kong
Echos being a thing makes him very likely suddenly.

2. Dark Samus
See the above, but combine it with the desire for increased Metroid representation, her being the main antagonist of the Prime series (which is getting a new game,) and her absence from the Assist Trophies shown off, and she's suddenly looking like one of the most likely characters.

1. Simon Belmont
Vergeben. Literally all I need to say.


Not to be too argumentative, but I really wouldn't go that far. Dixie Kong does exist, after all.

Not saying Celica has the best shot or anything, but people are taking the Lyn thing too strongly.

Intelligent Systems didn't even realize she was popular until long after the roster was decided.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Let me rephrase that.

I honestly think K. Rool is a lock right now. That is why he is underrated.

I'm a bit unsure what's actually changed for K. Rool to make him a lock unless I missed him returning to the Donkey Kong Franchise during E3, so I guess I am underrating him in your eyes

 

[Pacack]

Not saying Celica has the best shot or anything, but people are taking the Lyn thing too strongly.

Intelligent Systems didn't even realize she was popular until long after the roster was decided.

To be fair, I thought she was extremely overrated before E3 also.

 

[Opossum]

If anything I think K. Rool is far LESS likely now. I can't see Donkey Kong getting two newcomers on a roster that likely only has less than six newcomers left, and Dixie is a borderline lock IMO.

 

[Organization XIII]

If anything I think K. Rool is far LESS likely now. I can't see Donkey Kong getting two newcomers on a roster that likely only has less than six newcomers left, and Dixie is a borderline lock IMO.

Interesting my opinion is the opposite. I see DK getting one newcomer due to the low number of fighters as well with K Rool being a lock and Dixie having no chance

 

[Pacack]

If anything I think K. Rool is far LESS likely now. I can't see Donkey Kong getting two newcomers on a roster that likely only has less than six newcomers left, and Dixie is a borderline lock IMO.

Not "too many" newcomers can easily mean fewer than SSB4 or Brawl (17 and 18 respectively) but as many as Melee or 64 (12 and 14 respectfully.) This includes clones. Alternatively, using Melee as the baseline, the fewest unique newcomers we've ever gotten was 8 in Melee, which had a particularly intense development cycle.

That said, I do agree that Dixie and the possibility of Echoes like Funky make K. Rool less likely, not more.

 

[Opossum]

Not "too many" newcomers can easily mean fewer than SSB4 or Brawl (17 and 18 respectively) but as many as Melee or 64 (12 and 14 respectfully.) This includes clones. Alternatively, using Melee as the baseline, the fewest unique newcomers we've ever gotten was 8 in Melee, which had a particularly intense development cycle.

That said, I do agree that Dixie and the possibility of Echoes like Funky make K. Rool less likely, not more.

Lol I need to cite my beliefs?

I wholeheartedly believe we're only getting five more non-Echo newcomers AT MOST. I firmly believe people expecting more than that are going to be seriously disappointed.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Gonna abstain from doing this. Echo fighters and the fact we're not that sure how many Sakurai means with ''not that many new challengers'' make things way more complicated for me.
Bandana Dee's still likely however

 

[Edgelord_197]

Underrated
1.Ashley
It seems that everyone doesn't know how popular she is in Japan and she might get a shot since she didn't get deconfirmed.
2.Funky Kong
With Echo characters being a thing, I can see it happening
3. Excite Biker
Excite-bike and Balloon Fight are the two important games of the NES era that doesn't have character representation. And since Villager still has that up special, that only leaves with Excite-Biker. Also helps that casuals might actually know what they're from.
Over-Rated
1. Rex & Pyra
There game wasn't even out yet and I don't think Sakurai would like them from first glance of their concepts
2. Springman
Sure he's from a another Nintendo fighting game, but it's still new
3.Shantae
really don't think its happening
Honorable mention
Takumaru(Over-rated)

 

[Pacack]

Lol I need to cite my beliefs?

I wholeheartedly believe we're only getting five more non-Echo newcomers AT MOST. I firmly believe people expecting more than that are going to be seriously disappointed.

You don't have to if it's just an opinion you hold, but I'm still curious.

Why? Nothing he said indicates a smaller number than ever. Less than SSB4, particularly DLC? Of course. But why only six unique newcomers?

While all returning veterans are certainly a lot of work, Ice Climbers were already working on the Wii U in the past and likely reused assets, and Pichu and Young Link are clones. The only completely new returning veterans are Ivysaur, Squirtle, Snake, and Wolf. Even then, none of these characters were particularly difficult to develop, as their movesets had already been made previously and some stuff could have easily been brought up from Brawl.

Even counting them, I don't see how seven or eight more unique characters is crazy for the base roster. That would still be less than SSB4 or Brawl.

 

[Troykv]

The Most Overrated

1.- Decidueye

I still believe in the possibility of a Pokémon Newcomer in the base roster; but unlike last time, this isn't a lock, and the character the most affected for this phenomenom must have their score lowered.

2.- Rex and Pyra

The game has bigger focus in fanservice and things that the fanbase wants, so, the advertising newcomers seems even less likely this time; the only "revelant" non-Pokémon Character that I see as a likely possibility now it's Elma.

3.- Arms Newcomer (aka: Springman/Ribbon Girl)

Same deal as Rex & Pyra; too recent to be considered in the base roster.

__________________________________________________

The most underrated.

1.- Ashley

This character seems to have been taken A LOT more seriously these last years, popularity plays a bigger factor this time; and the fact we don't have see her in the Assist Trophies is... suspicious.

2.- Impa

Echo fighters are a thing, and will probably used to give extra characters to the base roster; now Impa's existence in Smash Ultimate it's extremely possible.

3.- Isabelle

Now I'm convinced I should actually give her an score above 50% just for the fact we're playing with fan favorites.

 

[Ura]

If anything I think K. Rool is far LESS likely now. I can't see Donkey Kong getting two newcomers on a roster that likely only has less than six newcomers left, and Dixie is a borderline lock IMO.

If anything K. Rool would be the unique newcomer and Dixie would be an Echo Fighter.

I imagine K. Rool is the "we saved the best for last" character reveal being saved for November or something.

 

[Opossum]

You don't have to if it's just an opinion you hold, but I'm still curious.

Why? Nothing he said indicates a smaller number than ever. Less than SSB4, particularly DLC? Of course. But why only six unique newcomers?

While all returning veterans are certainly a lot of work, Ice Climbers were already working on the Wii U in the past and likely reused assets, and Pichu and Young Link are clones. The only completely new returning veterans are Ivysaur, Squirtle, Snake, and Wolf. Even then, none of these characters were particularly difficult to develop, as their movesets had already been made previously and some stuff could have easily been brought up from Brawl.

Even counting them, I don't see how seven or eight more unique characters is crazy for the base roster. That would still be less than SSB4 or Brawl.

The game releases in six months, and I'm expecting one new reveal each for July, August, September, October, and November. December is a maybe but considering how early in December it releases I'm not sure. And if they stick to just Directs they have even fewer reveal opportunities, since those are once every two months at most.

Basically, there doesn't seem like enough time to reveal a much larger set of newcomers.

 

[Pacack]

The game releases in six months, and I'm expecting one new reveal each for July, August, September, October, and November. December is a maybe but considering how early in December it releases I'm not sure. And if they stick to just Directs they have even fewer reveal opportunities, since those are once every two months at most.

Basically, there doesn't seem like enough time to reveal a much larger set of newcomers.

July, August, September, October, November, December: 6 more months.

1 every month would be six more newcomers, and I expect they'll be fully unique since Daisy didn't get the same intro that Ridley did. There's also no rule that they can't do a big reveal of multiple characters before release. Further, we have historically had unlockable newcomers. Even if we stick exclusively to directs, we can always have multiple characters in each of them.

That alone doesn't indicate much of anything about how many characters we're getting.

 

[Erureido]

Seems like I forgot to post yesterday.

Well, I don't have much to say about it. I'm quite satisfied with most of the veteran returns and the newcomer addition. The lowest satisfaction I can give is an indifferent score of 50% to the Pokemon Trainer (with Squirtle and Ivysaur) and Young Link since I've never particularly cared for them, but with their return, it's nice to see them back for an "every veteran is back" kind-of-game. I'm indifferent to Daisy too. Ridley's score is slightly higher at around 65%: I had a hard time imagining how would Sakurai implement him despite his size, and Sakurai managed to successfully put him on the roster this time with a pretty nice moveset too! I'm also very happy for Ridley's fans seeing how he's been heavily requested for so long, and now they finally got their wish!

I was indifferent to Snake's possibility of returning, but with his comeback to Smash Ultimate, I've warmed up quite a bit to him and overall pleased to see him return, especially since his inclusion shows those negotiations with Konami went better than most of us expected. Wolf is a welcome return too.

Surprisingly, Pichu is the one I am most excited for of the returning veterans. The way how his revealed was timed right after the "Everyone is here" was what made me shocked and excited, especially since Pichu seemed like one of the least likely veterans to return. I was a Pichu main back when I was a kid, and I've recently started to use Pichu again whenever I return to playing Melee, so that Pichu mainer inside of me is happy about the Pokemon's return. I'm also interested in Pichu's return since he wasn't labeled as an Echo Fighter, which means Pichu will be Luigi-fied similar to Roy in Smash 4. I don't have high hopes he will be mid to high tier though seeing how his self-damaging mechanic returns, but if he does turn out to have more positive attributes to reach into a higher tier this time, I'll be quite happy. I also really like how expressive Pichu is in Smash Ultimate; his facial expressions are cute and entertaining!

Now to get back to the subject at hand:

Most overrated:

Decidueye (Pokemon): A lot of Decidueye's support came from the lack of a Grass-type rep in Smash 4 and the need to complete the Starter type trio on the roster. Now with Ivysaur back in the game, I feel like the hype behind Decidueye will die down, and it may require several people to rethink its chances.

Captain Toad (Super Mario): Seeing how Toad plays a more active role in Peach and even Daisy's movesets now, something tells me Sakurai will just look at that and not think much about Captain Toad now.

Rex & Pyra (Xenoblade Chronicles): Now that it seems 6 newcomers tops is looking more likely, and Rex & Pyra's designs weren't decided until after the roster was decided, something tells me they aren't as likely as they used to be. If anything, they are more likely as DLC fighters at this rate.

Most underrated:

Simon Belmont (Castlevania): That recent leak by Vergo, which is now getting more credibility than before, has been pointing to Simon's favor. Many seem to think Vergo is on to something, so something tells me Simon Belmont is more likely at the moment.

Chrom (Fire Emblem): Robin's Final Smash wasn't shown in his/her character trailer, nor did Sakurai talk about Robin having a new Final Smash during the Direct. With the existence of Echo Fighters combined with Chrom's popularity, it's possible Chrom could be implemented into the game as an Echo Fighter. On the other hand, there were other characters whose Final Smashes weren't shown or discussed, and if Chrom is really listening to the fan's demands this time, he could just easily not add another Fire Emblem rep. I'm leaning more towards the underrated side for the time being, because the existence of Echo Fighters might help him now.

Dark Samus (Metroid): Basically very similar circumstances to Chrom's, only this time there's the addition of Samus not having a Dark Samus alternate costume in Smash Ultimate from what I'm currently hearing.

 

[Deleted member]

Overrated

1. Spyro

Western third party that's a virtual nobody in Japan. And while the remake will be the titular dragon's first Japanese release since Skylanders: Spyro's Adventure in 2013, it came too late to have any effect on Ultimate's base roster.

2. ARMS Character

Calling them more likely than not would be too generous, since they might've came too late.

3. Rex and Pyra

Ditto, but to a lesser extent.

Dishonorable Mention: Bomberman (I know he's disconfirmed, but I'd like to point out that we screwed up by rating him higher than Snake.)

Underrated

I think we've been very generous with most of our chance ratings, but I do have one pick:

Simon Belmont

You knew this was coming.

He's part of a leak that's looking more believable now. Plus Snake's return opens up the possibility of an additional character from Konami. I don't think he's a guarantee by any means, but he could use a rerate.

 

[Parallel_Falchion]

If anything I think K. Rool is far LESS likely now. I can't see Donkey Kong getting two newcomers on a roster that likely only has less than six newcomers left, and Dixie is a borderline lock IMO.

Speaking as someone who wants Dixie more than K. Rool, I disagree. Ridley's and every veteran's inclusion strongly suggests Sakurai is giving more attention to fan requests, and K. Rool is basically at the top of that pillar by now.

 

[Nimbostratus]

Ahh, I've been looking forward to this day. Here comes the wall of text...

Overrated:
1. Decidueye: The only newcomer I consider to be criminally overrated, and that is coming from someone who actually quite likes Decidueye. I felt this way even before E3. The problem is, he's got signficant competition from Mimikyu, Lycanroc, and Incineroar, and based on the marketing and anime, the powers-that-be don't seem to care about Decidueye as much as we do. He's popular, but his peak comes after the ballot. Oh yeah, and now that there's already so many Pokemon (including the "necessary" grass starter) in this game that I feel like a newcomer isn't a priority, regardless of the "rule" that we have to get one.
2. Rex & Pyra: More likely than Decidueye, but not deserving of run-away top status.They have no ballot presence, which seems to be important thus far, and there are still some concerns about their timing with the project plan. There's also Elma to consider, who was better timed for the project plan and ballot (though I don't think the latter would get her in alone) and the whole rifle tweet. These characters should be at least at equal chances, certainly not over 20% higher than Elma.
3. Rayman: A decent third-party choice, but spaces are limited, and Bomberman shows that there's nothing all that strange about a Rayman trophy. He has ok chances, but it doesn't seem nearly like a 50/50 to me. It's not so much that I think a lot has changed as much as I think his supporters were a bit too enthuasistic when we first rated.

Honorable Mentions: Captain Toad, Dixie Kong, Paper Mario

Underrated:
1. Chrom: Lyn is out of the picture, and Robin's Final Smash is strangely MIA (as is Ike's recolor, though I put less stock on that since there's a lot of recolors missing). They've literally already joked about Chrom being an Ike clone, so I could see them making him an Echo fighter as a final consolation prize to his supporters. Again, not a certainty by any means, but we were too harsh based on what I've seen so far.
2. Geno: Ridley was a character with historic popularity, probably had support on the ballot, and had been specifically mentioned by Sakurai before. Sound familiar? If this is a fanservice game, Geno seems very possible. Oh, and there was the Mii costume.
3. Isaac: I don't consider him "likely", but the current rating is pretty harsh given this game's emphasis on fanservice. Isaac has been shown to be popular both East and West. Not seeing the AT is obviously a good thing, but I consider that a minor point.

Honorable Mentions: Ashley, Impa, Simon Belmont

As far as the missing Assist Trophies go, there's just too many MIA at the moment to start getting ideas that it means something- Ashley, Skull Kid, Dillon, Isabelle, Saki, Sable, Dark Samus, so forth and so forth. We know there are still tons of ATs yet to be revealed, and the disconfirmations could start rolling in at any time. The only absense I consider to be at all "suspicious" is Ashley. If the likes of Waluigi and Lyn were showed off so people wouldn't get their hopes up, Ashley is a popular enough choice that she should have been there alongside them. Characters from unrepped series (like Isaac or Dillon) had less reason to appear since the ATs were often shown off with characters from their franchise, while some series had enough to talk about that not being mentioned makes sense (like Skull Kid, since Midna was already shown and LoZ had much to discuss). If Ashley was an AT, she should have been shown off in Wario's trailer or one of his photos. Even so, it's only enough to earn her a spot on the Honorable Mention list for me. It seems too easy that the developers could just port all of the Assist Trophies over and say "LOL, this is good" if the game isn't empahasizing newcomers.I fear people are getting their hopes up too much.
As far as Simon goes, he should be a bit higher, but I have some concerns about that part of Vergeben's leak.

 

[StrangeMann]

For most Overrated and Underrated, I'm going to assume that the final roster is roughly 72 spaces in a 6 x 12, 1.5 x as tall and as wide as the demo roster with character portraits scaled 2/3 the size in both dimensions without changing the portrait's length or width relative to the other. I'm assuming there's only a few remaining spots for both echoes and newcomers. I think I'm going to do a most overrated and underrated for both echoes and normal characters if it's allowed.

Most Overrated Newcomers:
1. Decidueye.
With Squirtle, Ivysaur, and Pichu all returning with Smash 4's full Pokemon cast, I'm just not seeing this guy as likely anymore on top of all the other Pokemon we have in this game. We have 3 links and 2 pits also as archers, Ivysaur has taken the grass type niche that was once exclusive to it, and the fact that Mimikyu and Lycanroc have not been confirmed as pokeball Pokemon either further dampens his chances among the same generation. This character really needs a rerate, they had a roughly 58% chance (the second highest) the first time they were rated, and I highly suspect this number would drop drastically if they were to be re-rated to be more in line with lycanroc and mimikyu.

2. Captain Toad
With Toad having increased emphasis in the movesets of both Peach and the newcomer Daisy, Captain toad is in my opinion pretty unlikely. Toad shows up in both movesets in a full bodied form for both neutral B and grabs. Doc was further decloned and Daisy was added as an Echo as well, so the Mario series has definitely had some attention given to it for this game. I'm pretty doubtful Captain toad's gonna make it in this time although I think he would be very interesting as a playable fighter, even though I understand he has some defining features setting him apart from most toads.

3. Celica
I'm just not seeing it with how many fire emblem characters were in the smash game, and the likelihood a fire emblem character from the upcoming switch game is DLC or the possibility of Chrom being an echo fighter. Celica is an interesting fire emblem rep, but I just feel like she's not going to make it in this time.

Honorable Mentions:
Mimikyu: With pichu returning, I'm really uneasy about the idea of 3 playable characters who look like pikachu, and think it's unlikely, but I could be mistaken as there are 3 links in the game.
Paper Mario: Same as above except for Mario instead
Crash Bandicoot: A new arrival to nintendo systems, I don't think he's going to be in the base roster. Would have likely been an E3 announcement if he was in in my opinion. Spyro also is in a similar position but even less likely, and we already have a purple dragon in smash bros now.
Rex and Pyra: Kind of unlikely IMO for base game, designed a bit late and the voice actors don't seem aware, almost guarenteed DLC though.


Most Underrated Newcomers:
1. K Rool
I honestly think it's extremely likely we get a DK rep. Whether or not it is going to be Dixie Kong, K rool, or both is up to the imagination of the designers and speculators, but what we do know is that after Ridley, it's extremely likely DK gets the next representative. Mario, Pokemon, Zelda, Fire Emblem, Metroid, Star Fox, and Kid Icarus most likely having a satisfactory number of characters for this installment, I highly think that DK is the most likely franchise to get a new character at this point in time. Either is possible as a Unique fighter, but I feel like K Rool is more likely due to reasons listed further down.

2. Chorus Men
With the ice climbers returning, and the assumption that the rhythm heaven symbol in smash 4's datamining most likely belonging to a character, and the gematsu leak being highly implied by Sakurai statements to have been a legitimate leak of an early-development roster plan (implied by statements about Chrom and other interviews), they are easily the most likely representative of a new first party series in smash bros. Most likely similar to the Ice climbers, but being 3 instead of two, they seem likely as suspects for this game. I'm shocked they were never rated before (although there was a vote for the likeliness of a rhythm heaven rep, and that was decently likely.)

3. Simon Belmont
Vergeben is probably right, and there's a very off chance he's wrong at this point. Although he was wrong about the new castlevania game, there is a chance it could be announced in a future direct. Most likely third party newcomer as of right now in my opinion, as Bomberman as an assist trophy and Snake returning signify konami is working with Nintendo. His whip and history bring a lot with his uniqueness as a character.

Honorable mentions:
Elma: Unsure whether it's Elma or Rex and Pyra, depends on timing and planning. I do think Rex and Pyra are almost certainly going to be DLC characters if they aren't in the base roster regardless.
Bandana Waddle Dee: Most likely Kirby rep, and Kirby is the series most likely to acquire a new rep after Xenoblade and Donkey Kong in my opinion.
Rayman: Most likely representative of Ubisoft, who is on increasingly favorable ground with nintendo as shown by E3.
Geno: Popular request, Sakurai likes him, Square Enix is working with nintendo, and mii costume last game. Quite possible in my opinion.
Ashley: No longer an assist trophy, comes after Kirby/DK/Xenoblade though imo.

Most Overrated Echoes/Clones:
1. Galacta Knight/Dark Meta Knight
They've got alt costumes on Meta Knight already that are very similar, but not identical to them. I don't think we'll be seeing them.

2. Dry Bowser
I love Dry Bowser but I don't think he's as likely as people seem to think he is following the Echo Fighters announcement. Maybe as a costume? In the ideal world, I would love if he just inherited bowser's old moveset from brawl/melee with beefed up power, but I know it's unlikely.

3. Chrom
Just because he's not in the demo doesn't mean he's not still in Robin's final smash. Not outright unlikely but some people seem to think he's very likely. I understand he's a popular character but it's quite likely he's still in Robin's final smash until we have more information.

Honorable Mentions:
Dark Link/Spirit Link
Dr Luigi
Funky Kong

Most Underrated Echoes/Clones:
1. Dark Samus:
Her samus costume and Assist trophy don't appear to be in the demo, and she definitely shares some of samus's characteristics as an assist trophy in the last game. Canonically dead though.

2. Dixie Kong
Controversial opinion for sure, but Diddy Kong's tail attacks were completely removed, so I think she'll possibly be an echo fighter of Diddy Kong with a special recovery. This is assuming she's not a playable unique newcomer and K Rool is instead, fully acknowledge I could be wrong here.

3. Impa
The Most likely Zelda echo for sure for shiek, would be interesting to finally see her implemented into the game.

Honorable Mentions:
Blood Falcon
Majora's Mask young link?

 

[NeonBurrito]

Underrated Characters

#3 - Dark Samus

• Samus no longer has her Dark Samus alternate palette
• Dark Samus did not make an appearance
• The introduction of Echo fighters lead me to believe that Dark Samus has been turned into one for the bounty hunter

#2 - Impa

• Zelda characters no longer pull from one single game, meaning that Impa isn't restricted to her grandma-esqe BotW design anymore
• Impa could easily make use of a SS / HW design, which would add

#1 - Simon Belmont

• Verge leak, which has gotten everything right up until this point

Underrated Runner-Ups

• Dixie Kong (Echoes boost her chances)
• Isabelle (Echoes boost her chances, her assist trophy did not make an appearance)
• Ashley (immensely popular, her assist trophy did not make an appearance)

Overrated Characters

#3 - King K. Rool

• Dixie Kong has only become more likely with the introduction of Echo Fighters, and could very easily be made one of Diddy Kong (as much as I would rather have her own moveset)
• With the low amount of newcomers, the idea of getting two Donkey Kong newcomers seems unlikely, even if one of them turns out to be an Echo character, and K. Rool is immensely popular
• Saying this physically hurts me because K. Rool is my most wanted newcomer as of right now

#2 - Rex & Pyra (base game)

• Likely designed far too late to be included in Smash
• Still believe they have a solid shot for DLC

#1 - Decidueye

• No reason to include him over more popular and relevant Gen VII Pokemon, like Lycanroc, Mimikyu, or even Rowlet
• The idea of "needing to fulfill the starter typing triangle" is dead now that Pokemon Trainer is back
• Saying this also hurts me because Decidueye is my Gen VII Pokemon of choice]

Overrated Runner-Ups

• Celica (with all FE characters returning, I don't think we'll be seeing a new base game FE character, and if we get a DLC FE newcomer, it'll likely be Edgelord to promote the new games)
• Crash Bandicoot in Base Game (trilogy port likely came too late, as well as a majority of his recent support, I believe he's likely for DLC however)
• ARMS Character (same deal as Rex & Pyra, although ARMS likely had designs finalized long before, considering its reveal at the Switch reveal)

 

[Organization XIII]

#2 - Rex & Pyra (base game)

• Likely designed far too late to be included in Smash
• Still believe they have a solid shot for DLC

Ok but that part only talks about their facial expression not the designs of Rex and Pyra where is the timeline for those?

 

[TheDukeofDorks]

Overrated:

3- Decidueye
Combine the massive influx of returning Pokemon veterans with massive competition from other Gen 7 Pokemon.

2- ARMS Newcomer
There's no way an ARMS character is getting into the base game with such limited space.

1- Rex and Pyra
See above, but with the added competition of Elma.

Underrated:

Skipping most of these as I'm not confident in any characters chances now that we know we're not getting too many newcomers, but...

1- Dark Samus
With the concept of Echo Fighters and the removal of the Dark Samus costume, she's looking significantly more likely than before.

 

[MrMcNuts]

Overrated:
1. Shantae: I'll never understand the bandwagon behind her and she has no place in smash.
2. Issac: don't see it happening and he's another sword user so eww
3. Spyro: definitely one of the least deserving third party.

Underated:
1. Elma: while I want Rex and Pyra more, she may have the better shot
2. Rayman: while there are plenty who agree with me that he'd be great and have a good shot, I see a handful of people underrating his chances and saying they don't want him just because. Laaaaame
3. Mach Rider maybe? He was considered once so I think he's likely as a retro rep.

 

[TheDukeofDorks]

Underrated Characters

#3 - Dark Samus

• Samus no longer has her Dark Samus alternate palette
• Dark Samus did not make an appearance
• The introduction of Echo fighters lead me to believe that Dark Samus has been turned into one for the bounty hunter

#2 - Impa

• Zelda characters no longer pull from one single game, meaning that Impa isn't restricted to her grandma-esqe BotW design anymore
• Impa could easily make use of a SS / HW design, which would add

#1 - Simon Belmont

• Verge leak, which has gotten everything right up until this point

Underrated Runner-Ups

• Dixie Kong (Echoes boost her chances)
• Isabelle (Echoes boost her chances, her assist trophy did not make an appearance)
• Ashley (immensely popular, her assist trophy did not make an appearance)

Overrated Characters

#3 - King K. Rool

• Dixie Kong has only become more likely with the introduction of Echo Fighters, and could very easily be made one of Diddy Kong (as much as I would rather have her own moveset)
• With the low amount of newcomers, the idea of getting two Donkey Kong newcomers seems unlikely, even if one of them turns out to be an Echo character, and K. Rool is immensely popular
• Saying this physically hurts me because K. Rool is my most wanted newcomer as of right now

#2 - Rex & Pyra (base game)

• Likely designed far too late to be included in Smash
• Still believe they have a solid shot for DLC

#1 - Decidueye

• No reason to include him over more popular and relevant Gen VII Pokemon, like Lycanroc, Mimikyu, or even Rowlet
• The idea of "needing to fulfill the starter typing triangle" is dead now that Pokemon Trainer is back
• Saying this also hurts me because Decidueye is my Gen VII Pokemon of choice]

Overrated Runner-Ups

• Celica (with all FE characters returning, I don't think we'll be seeing a new base game FE character, and if we get a DLC FE newcomer, it'll likely be Edgelord to promote the new games)
• Crash Bandicoot in Base Game (trilogy port likely came too late, as well as a majority of his recent support, I believe he's likely for DLC however)
• ARMS Character (same deal as Rex & Pyra, although ARMS likely had designs finalized long before, considering its reveal at the Switch reveal)

I'm confused as to why you have King K Rool as overrated, citing that it's unlikely that we'd get 2 DK newcomers, even if one is an echo fighter, but you have Dark Samus as an underrated character, even though that would result in the exact same situation for Metroid.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

#2 - Rex & Pyra (base game)

• Likely designed far too late to be included in Smash

I hate this evidence because it’s a super common misunderstanding. The finalalized aspects were facial animations, which I doubt would affect smash. If anything it means they were design wise finished before that point as the facial animations are done after characters are colored and outlined characters. Imo it puts them early on that timeline. Earlier than anything else.

Say what you will if they are too new or that Elma is more likely, but their designs at least were definately done before that.

 

[wildvine47]

Most overrated

1. Decidueye - Between Pokemon Trainer repping the type trio on his own and his strong-as-he’ll competition, Decidueye has a bit of egg on his face now. Still a strong contender, but definitely not as strong as he once was.

2. Rex and Pyra - As time goes on, these guys are seeming less and less likely for the main cast. DLC may afford them a second chance, but limited slots and a seemingly fan-demand-oriented roster on the way, they’re in a much worse spot now.

3. Captain Toad - Sorry Todd, you might be out of luck. Toad taking a more active role in Peach’s moveset might well seal the little explorer’s fate. They’re not technically the same character, but Sakurai might consider this bump in prominence enough for the whole species. We don’t have long to wait and see after all.

Underrated

Simon Belmont - Even without the likely legit Vergeben leak making him one of the most likely newcomers PERIOD right now, Konami negotiation is officially on the table now, and his biggest competition got clobbered with the Assist Trophy bat. Fully expecting to see the Captain N trio completed this year. Hopefully he’s got a color based on that design at least.

Dark Samus - Not only is her Assist Trophy missing, so is Samus’s Dark Samus palette, with a new Phazon Suit color replacing it. With Ridley joining as well, her biggest roadblock is out of the way, and echo fighters might just be what she needed to make the roster. I’d love her to be a unique fighter, but if the only way we’ll get her is as an echo, I’ll take it. If it does happen, please do the vastly superior Prime 2 design Sakurai.

Ashley - Missing Assist Trophies is a BIG deal right now. Amongst the missing cast of Dillon, Dark Samus, Shadow, Isabelle, and others, Ashley is a standout due to her immense Japanese popularity. Admittedly I underrated her myself, but her absence has me questioning that.

Honorable mentions go to Impa and Isabelle, both of whom benefit greatly from Echo characters being embraced. Neither has as solid of a case as Dark Samus yet, but they’re both very strong contenders in their own right.

We are heading into very interesting waters, RTC. Gonna be interesting to see how we proceed from here with so much having changed so suddenly.

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Overrated:

#1. Decidueye - I feel like a new Pokémon got much more unlikely with both the announcement that everyone comes back and Sakurai saying he hopes we don't expect too many new characters. Pokémon has been boosted up to a whopping 9 characters now, and with it looking very likely that we're getting less newcomers than usual I don't think a new Pokémon will be a priority. By the time DLC rolls out Pokémon as a series will also be looking forward instead of backwards, so I really don't think we'll even get a Gen 7 newcomer at all.

#2. Rex & Pyra - That they're our number one most likely character is very misleading imo, atm I get the feeling that it's more likely than not that they aren't in the game, and that Elma is more likely than them. Prime DLC contender though.

#3. Captain Toad - His chances took a hit from Toad receiving a bigger role in Peach's moveset imo, if Toad managed to break off and become his own character in any form I'd expect them to reduce his role in Peach's moveset, and not highlight it even more. It's a shame for the little guy, but I do think it's a significant hit to his chances.

Underrated:

#1. Simon Belmont - Vergeben leak of course, but also that Konami is at the table again, plus Bomberman has been eliminated as competition. His chances are awfully close to the 100% now.

#2. Impa - Very likely as a Sheik echo character now, there was no way we could have known that it'd be a concept back when we rated her, but it does leave her with a much greater chance than we gave her.

#3. Geno - With fewer newcomers than usual I feel like we'll see a heavy focus on fan favorites, as seen with Ridley's inclusion, and Geno is a huge contender because of this. Sakurai recognized his popularity in the past and even admitted he himself wanted him, plus Square Enix have been at the negotiations table which there were some doubts about previously, so I feel like the stage is set for him now more than ever.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

On the whole, I think everyone's been overrated. I can't really see myself rating any future characters over a 15% to be honest, unless they really have something going for them.

So - I think the most overrated characters we have are...

• Decidueye - There's a lot that can be said about this guy competing with the other two likely Gen 7s, and the fact that we are hitting Pokemon critical mass.
• Rex/Pyra - 64%? We don't even know if there'll be another Xeno character coming in, and the timing for Elma vs. Rex is a bit off
• Captain Toad - Toad's showing up a lot more for Peach, and now we have another Toad with Daisy. May not be good for headlamp-toad. Plus, we're hitting Mario critical mass as well.

The most underrated are...

• Chrom - he'd be way too easy of an Ike echo, and the trailer did say he'd get his chance another day.
• Simon Belmont - I don't want to fall on 'leaks,' but Vergeben's been right so far.
• Impa - Again, she screams Sheik echo from a series which has now made "take any look you've ever had in any game" a thing.

I did like TCT~Phantom 's original idea of possibly looking at all of the Gen 7 frontrunners (Decidueye, Mimikyu, Lycanroc) together, since now that there are fewer newcomers, they seem to be in direct competition. I could even say that K.Rool and Dixie are moving to face off, which is problematic since both fanbases overlap significantly. I don't know if I can see two unique DK characters getting in, but I could easily see one unique and one echo - just will it be a unique K.Rool and a Diddy echo, or a unique Dixie with a Bowser echo? Maybe we could also look at the two of them together?

Also, when do we start noms again, since I want to start shoving Tails up the list? If so, Tails x5

 

[Icedragonadam]

Overrated

1. Elma. I never really cared for her at all. I'm don't get the appeal of her and I prefer Rex & Pyra

2. Waluigi. Yes I said it. He seems nothing more than a giant meme right now, like Chrom

3. Geno. I never really used him in SMRPG. My party was always Mario, Mallow, and Peach.

Underrated

1. Dillon. I really like his design and has potential as a new IP.

2. Simon. This rating was just before the Vergeben leak. I'm really hoping he does get in.

3. Arle. I like Puyo puyo and it's been getting popular outside of Japan now.

 

[AlphaSSB]

Top 3 Overrated Characters:

3) Celica - I never really thought she had high chances in the first place, especially not the average 37.93% she has now. With Sakurai already feeling that there was too many Fire Emblem characters, and the backlash over how many there are, I could really only see Celica if there was going to be substantial Fire Emblem roster cuts. That obviously did not happen, and I feel like her chances are slim to none.

2) Shovel Knight - Although I feel that he's the most likely Indie, I think the chances of any Indie making it onto the roster are very slim. He may have an Amiibo, and may have done somewhat decent in the ballot, but 22.88% is way too high.

1) Mimikyu - How Mimikyu got up to 37.61% is beyond me. I've never seen Mimikyu as the potential 'Greninja' for Smash Switch, especially when there's a plethora of other Pokemon from Gen VII to pick from. Decidueye, Incineroar, Lycanroc, Bewear, Tapu Koko, etc. And now, with Pichu and Pokemon Trainer (Thus, by association, Squirtle and Ivysaur) returning, I'd be surprised to see any Pokemon newcomer this time around.


Top 3 Underrated Characters:

3) Impa - With Smash characters having designs based off different games, I wouldn't count out on Impa showing up based on her her appearance in Skyward Sword. Especially now, I'd say that she's one of the most likely Zelda newcomers, on par with or above even the Champions from Breath of the Wild. Even with me not expecting too many more newcomers, I'd still say Impa's chances are higher than 26.94%.

2) Simon Belmont - No, this isn't because of any 'leaks' that may be floating around. Sakurai has mentioned he has some personal history with Castlevania, claiming “For me personally, it was the year 1986, when games like The Legend of Zelda and Castlevania were released, and I experienced physically interactive games. They had a big impact on me”. For a while now, we've thrown many Konami characters under the bus, but with Snake back and Bomberman as an Assist Trophy, I'd say Simon Belmont's chances are definitely higher now than 16.67%.

1) Black Shadow - With clone characters being glorified as 'Echo' characters, I wouldn't be surprised if more began to show up. Now that Ganondorf is straying further away from Captain Falcon, I really wouldn't be surprised if Sakurai decided to give the one Smash 64 franchise with only one fighter a second, and it's villain at that. 3.80% definitely feels low for me, even if his chances as a whole still aren't particularly high.


And in case we're still doing nominations: Slippy Toad x5

 

[Sid-cada]

Most Overrated Characters

1 - Decidueye - We already have a ton of pokemon due to all veterains coming back, and we might have been ignoring his rivals at this point.

2 - Rex and Pyra - We have them at No. 1 at over 60%. I think we can all agree that seems a bit much, considering the focus on old favorites this time around.

3 - Celica - Considering Sakurai voied that he was afraid of overrepresenting FE and everyone is back, I don't think we're getting a FE character.


Underrated

Simon Belmont - Competion has been eliminated and that Komani is, infact, back, makes him greatly likely, even ignoring the leak.

Impa - Combine Echos with a more diverse selection of what games Zelda charaters come from, its looking surprisingly likely.

Dark Samus - Another Echo with a surprising amount of evidence going for her. With the pallet adjustments, it's possible we might see her.

 

[Runic_SSB]

Overrated:

1. Steve
Anything above 0% is a severe overestimate.

2. Crash Bandicoot
Every single 3rd party character whose only argument is "their game got ported to a Nintendo console" has no chance.

3. Geno
He was in one game, over 20 years ago.

Underrated:

1. Sora
You guys rated this extremely highly requested character with an actual history with Nintendo whose biggest game in their series coming out at the same time as the new Smash Bros. below the ****ing Doom guy, with zero reasoning beyond "but Disney". Also, the General Manager of Disney Japan flat-out said that they'd be more than fine with Sora in Smash and they wouldn't be restrictive so long as Sora stays true to his character (which wouldn't be an issue).

2. Funky Kong
Not only has the existence of Echo characters boosted his chances significantly, but he also has a decent shot at being the regular DK rep (if there is one) because of Tropical Freeze's New Funky Mode.

3. Black Shadow
Out of all of the characters who could be Echoes, he's by far the lowest rated.