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Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

RouffWestie

Smash Lord
Joined
Oct 27, 2013
Messages
1,207
Location
Georgia
Velvet
Chance: 1%
Last time Sakurai flat out implied that Lloyd is the only Tales character that would make sense to include in Smash. I don' think Velvet has been around long enough to gain the large following of other long-time requested newcomers either, so she probably wouldn't be on Nintendo's radar when they were choosing the DLC. Nor does the game seem to have had the same impact as Persona 5 or Dragon Quest, so I don't think they'd use the new character excuse for her.
Want: 0%
I don't have much interest seeing anyone from Tales in Smash in the first place. I'd only really get behind Lloyd, solely because I associate him with all the years I spent playing him in the Super Smash Flash 2 demos. I've never played her game and I could barely get into the two Tales games I did play so I doubt I'd ever try.
 
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warpenguin55

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Aug 20, 2018
Messages
490
Chance: 10%
Pretty sure Sakurai said that said it was Lloyd or nothing when it comes to the tales of series. I don't think that Velvet is more popular than Lloyd, but I don't know too much of about Tales of series so maybe she actually is. Back about a year ago I don't remember hearing anything about her, just a ton of Lloyd. I'm leaving her chance a bit higher because she's from Bandai-Namco, but Lloyd has a much better shot.

Want: 5%
I think Bandai should get another rep sometime, but I don't know this character enough to give her a high want score

Noms
League of Legends rep x5
 

Sid-cada

Smash Lord
Joined
Jan 19, 2013
Messages
1,779
Velvet

Chance - 0.25% - Sakurai has said that when it comes to Tales of characters, Lloyd was the only choice. I don't think anything has significantly changed to make this statement untrue.

Want - 20% - Really don't care, RPGs are not my forte. I would rather have other characters.


Nominations

Farmer X5
 

PokéfreakofBACON

Smash Ace
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Messages
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PokefreakofBACON
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Chance: 0%
Sakurai literally said it himself, if we get a tales rep it's Lloyd. She might be a mii costume, but that's really all she's got going for her.

Want: 50%
I've never played a Tales game, but. She's hot. Girls in smash is always a good thing in my book.

Adeleine Prediction: 17.4%
Finally, a character I care about to write a five page thesis on.

All 5 noms for any grass type starter.
 

ArchRanger

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Oct 20, 2019
Messages
140
Velvet Crowe

60% Chance
While I think a 'Tales of' character is inevitable now with further DLC characters confirmed and Bandai not having a proper rep (PM is a Namco rep in my eyes), I think it's a toss up of Lloyd or Velvet. Going by the DQ and Persona reps using the newest protag rather than the most popular, I feel this boosts her chances up quite a bit but I also know not to underestimate Lloyd's popularity.

100% Want
I personally want Velvet out of the two since Tales of Berseria is the only Tales game I have played and her kit would be extremely unique rather than another sword wielder. Also, the more females the better especially considering that there hasn't been a single DLC one added and if the Crash/Ryu leak is anything to go by, Kazooie is the only gal that will be added this FP.

Nomination
Steve x5
 

osby

Smash Obsessed
Joined
Apr 25, 2018
Messages
23,460
Going by the DQ and Persona reps using the newest protag rather than the most popular, I feel this boosts her chances up quite a bit but I also know not to underestimate Lloyd's popularity.
But in Persona, the newest protag and the most popular protag are the same.

Not to mention, Eleven came with Arusu, who is the most popular DQ protag from what I get.
 
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Ninjaed

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Nov 7, 2018
Messages
468
But in Persona, the newest protag and the most popular protag are the same.

Not to mention, Eleven came with Arusu, who is the most popular DQ protag from what I get.
Since we're talking popularity, here's the latest Tales of popularity poll (excluding Yuri and Leon, as they've been given the Hall of Fame status, thus ineligible):



Eizen and Velvet are #5 and #7 (both from Berseria), Lloyd is #11.
 
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Flyboy

Smash Hero
Joined
Aug 26, 2010
Messages
5,280
Location
Dayton, OH
Since we're talking popularity, here's the latest Tales of popularity poll (excluding Yuri and Leon, as they've been given the Hall of Fame status, thus ineligible):



Aizen and Velvet are #5 and #7 (both from Berseria), Lloyd is #11.
I'm actually shocked to see Ludger so high! Xillia 2 is my favorite Tales game but it always seems like the US Tales fandom hates it, haha.
 

3BitSaurus

Smash Master
Joined
May 6, 2019
Messages
4,298
Location
Nowhere (no, not the Islands)
Velvet Crowe
Chance: 5%
Normally, I'd say Tales is one of the strongest Bamco candidates as always, but... that doesn't necessarily apply to Velvet. Lloyd seems to have preferential treatment from Nintendo and Sakurai, plus even if he didn't, there's Yuri, who is more popular. Heck, even if Namco went for the "recency" option, there's a new Tales in the horizon, so... yeah, not the best chances.

Want: Abstain
Never played Berseria, but I will say that in my opinion her fighting style seems more interesting compared to Yuri at least. That said, I feel like I lack the knowledge to judge her inn this regard.

Predictions
Adeleine: 4.3%

Nominations
[Rerate] Sora x 5
 

FancySmash

Smash Lord
Joined
Jun 25, 2014
Messages
1,136
Location
The elegant battlefield.
Velvet Crowe (great, now I'm thinking of a Red Velvet Crow...)

Chance: 3%
Video game character? Check. Third party? Check. Main character of their series? Ooh, that's the death knell right there. I suppose she's a possibility, but there are two Tales of characters ahead of her, and I don't think she'd play similarly enough to either of them to even be an alt. Could get a mii costume I guess.

Want: 50%
Just for the record, this 50% stands for all the Tales of characters. I am not particularly invested in the series, heck, the only Namco series I'm really familiar with is Pac-Man, who's already in, and some other arcade characters. Do note though, if I did pick a Tales of character, it wouldn't be her, I'd probably choose someone who's more of a 'face' of the series.

Predictions: Adeleine/Ado
In a world where Bandana Dee, Magolor, and Marx are all bigger names, don't see the painter kid having an easy time. 7.01%

Nominations:
Captain Rainbow x5
 

Sari

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ATTENTION EVERYONE

TCT~Phantom will be unavailable for a few days due to a serious family issue he is dealing with. For the mean time he has allowed GoodGrief741, UtopianPoyzin, and myself to temporarily run the thread. Today's rating will end tomorrow at about 10:00 pm EST, depending on how active it is.

So to start off, rate Adeleine (Kirby). Also predict Gene (God Hand) and Concept: Another Western Character.

Could a mod such as Megadoomer Megadoomer change the title to: Rate Their Chances- Smash Ultimate Day 330 - Adeleine (Kirby)
 

Ridrool64

Smash Lord
Joined
Jun 21, 2013
Messages
1,398
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New Jersey
Ado isn't Adeleine's girlfriend, or boyfriend, or brother or sister, because how can you be that when they're literally you?

Chance: 5%. She is a character that exists, and meets the bare minimum for the Fighter's Pass, but she would be a completely strange addition to Super Smash Brothers Ultimate at this current time. See, the pass has to come with a stage (not a problem), spirits (a bit worrisome, but more doable), and music, the thing that's plenty represented for Kirby for the most part. Next, while Star Allies gave her a moveset, I'm pretty sure it's too little, too late for the Fighter's Pass. Lastly, out of all the characters, she has the least amount of a new audience to attract. Sure, there's plenty of overlap between the current install base and Banjo fans at the time, but he also had totally new ground to forge. Adeleine doesn't have that, she would hardly raise sales of the game from her inclusion. Why would Nintendo put her on the list? I cannot fathom an answer.

Want: 50%. She'd be pretty great, and would be a Dark Matter/modern Kirby character which people are begging for these days. But it really should be Bandana Dee who's next, and I'd simply rather have Gooey. Even still, I think Adeleine'd be an awesome inclusion... in the base game. I'm not sure if she's worth paying for.

Arle Nadja x 5. Gene has craploads of awesome competition so I can't see him breaking 7.29%. Another Western Character, on the other hand, I will give 29.82% because I think a lot of people are predicting a bunch of them.
 

GoodGrief741

Smash Legend
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
10,169
Vib-Ribbon

Chance: 5%
I really don't see her getting in over Bandana Dee. Or Magolor. Or Marx. For one, all those characters beat her in demand. Dee has bigger roles too. Plus Sakurai may or may not have a tendency towards ignoring anything that he didn't have a hand in creating, which hurts everyone but Marx really. However she did get a new lease on life through Star Allies (to be fair, who didn't?) and her moveset is practically already done.

Want: 90%
Yeah, I'd love to see Adeleine. We don't have a painter and while I'm more partial to guys like Vince and Nikki, Adeleine is super adorable and would probably bring Ribbon's shooty mechanics as well. And I have a soft spot for Kirby 64 so there's that.

Noms: Prince of Persia x5
Gene prediction: 3.00% (get it?)
Western character prediction: 56.13%
 

TheCJBrine

Smash Legend
Joined
Jul 28, 2013
Messages
12,054
Location
New World, Minecraft
Painter Girl:

Chance: 1% - The Kirby representation has mostly been limited to Sakurai's stuff, save for Kirby's and Dedede's final smashes and some music, so I'm not expecting any new Kirby characters any time soon. If we were to get a new Kirby character, though, I feel Bandana Dee would be the most-likely.

Want: 100% - She is among my favorite Kirby characters, so I would really like her addition. She could have some cool paint attacks, summon stuff from her art, and maybe even do that silly last resort attack of hers (I guess it'd likely be a dash attack); she could bring Ribbon with her as well.

Nominations:

Ninten x5
 
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Calamitas

Smash Champion
Joined
Aug 17, 2018
Messages
2,689
Location
Germany
ADELEINE BRINGS THE PAIN-T!

Chance: 1%
Well. . . she's a video games character, and the Kirby series didn't have a newcomer in ten years. But she just honestly doesn't have much going for her. I know (or rather, think) that she has no Spirit, but I see that more as a point against her than a point in her favour. Sakurai does seem to favour Kirby content from the games he created, but I'd also think that she isn't high up on his priority list.

Want: 65%
Yeah, I wouldn't mind her at all. First-party character, female, Kirby newcomer - good combination, even if I'm not really a Kirby fan.

Nominating Amaterasu x5
Not going to do any predictions on this Gene since I have literally no knowledge on that character. For the concept of another Western character, though, I'm gonna predict a 59.99% rating.
 

GoodGrief741

Smash Legend
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
10,169
Remember, today's the last day your characters can get into the top seven. Make those nominations count!

Kyo Kusanagi x165
Amaterasu x147
Zhao Yun (Dynasty Warriors) x145
Kratos x138
[Rerate] Micaiah x135
Captain Rainbow x132
Lara Croft x130

150 - 101

Farmer (Harvest Moon/Story of Seasons) x128
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x125
Rundas x115
Ninten x115
9-Volt x110
Blaze the Cat x110
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x105

100 - 51

Aloy x100
Concept: Valve rep x95
Boss: Kracko x95
[Rerate] Arle Nadja x90
Frogger x85
Glover x85
Prince of Persia x85
Noctis Lucis Caelum x80
Sunflower (Plants vs. Zombies) x80
Proto Man x75
The Horrible Goose (Untitled Goose Game) x75
Concept: Any grass-type starter x73
[Rerate] Dovahkiin x70
X (Mega Man) x68
Brian (Quest 64) x65
Papyrus x56
Decidueye x53

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Reporter & Wrestler x50
Thrall (Warcraft) x50
Sol Badguy x45
Concept: No more stages beyond the Pass x45
[Rerate] Bandana Dee x40
Riesz (Mana) x40
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x35
[Rerate] Sora x35
Ryo Hazuki x35
[Rerate] Heihachi x35
[Rerate] Steve x35
Concept: League of Legends rep x30
[Rerate] Geno x25

Under 25

Concept: First-parties after the Fighter Pass x20
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x20
Earthworm Jim x19
[Rerate] Dante x17
The Blob (De Blob) x15
Akira Howard x15
[Rerate] Rayman x15
Chun-Li x11
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x11
Giygas x10
[Rerate] Lloyd Irving x10
King Boo x10
Sackboy x10
Urbosa x9
[Rerate] Quote x7
Concept: Lord Fredrik as an Echo of K. Rool x7
[Rerate] Tetromino x5
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Gordon Freeman x5
[Rerate] Monokuma x9
[Rerate] Phoenix Wright x5
Black Shadow x2

Geno flashes out of the under 25 club.
 
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Sari

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Some songs to get into the Adeleine mood:


Ratings will be later.
 

waddledeeonredyoshi

Smash Lord
Joined
Jul 29, 2014
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Drenthe, NL
*inserts gif of her being defeated by a hot dog*
Chance: 0%
The only thing you can argue in favor of her is her lacking a Spirit, the same driving force behind the support of characters like Porky and Sylux, but I really doubt that Spirit shtick matters anymore with the additional DLC confirmed. So ignoring that, she's in a bad spot with her only appearing in games Sakurai didn't direct and only being relevant again after the Dream friend updates in Star Allies. She definitely would not be chosen over the likes of Bandana Dee or even Magolor. Her popularity and significance just aren't great enough, even with Star Allies.

Want: 0%
I may be the one who gave her a bunch of noms, doesn't actually mean I want her. While I would like seeing Sakurai finally go against his bias regarding the Kirby series, Adeline is not the character I would want him to do that with. Shame on me cause I've actually never played Kirby 64 so the attachment isn't really there for me, neither was the hype when she was confirmed for Star Allies. Even pretending I have, she still wouldn't seem worthy of Smash in my eyes, certainly not before Dee or Mago. Her support seems to mostly stem of her moveset potential and uniqueness with her painting abilities instead of her relevance and impact on the franchise making her a bit like Geno in a sense. Which is fine but not what I'm personolly looking for in a character.

I've also had some problems with some bad apple Ado supporters in the past so that, along with being Bandee competition, is where my biases get envolved.

Gene: 1.63% (probably lots of abstaining too)
Another western rep: 57.97%
Bandana Dee x5
Gene prediction: 3.00% (get it?)
It's that IGN review in't it?
 
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SKX31

Smash Master
Joined
Feb 22, 2019
Messages
3,463
Location
Sweden
How do you top the most powerful painter this side of Popstar? *Kirby pulls a Darth Maul* Oh... (Adeleine):

Chance: 1.5 %

Well, it's kinda sad to say this - but between being first party, there being more prominent Kirby characters (BWD chief among them) and Adeleine having her resurgence just recently with Star Allies, she looks to be Smash 6 or likewise base game material. I do presume Smash 6 releasing within the next 10 years or so (if Sakurai doesn't pull an Ultimate Deluxe on the next console) so she's not out of the running by my count. I also presume Smash 6 will be the "Reset Button and re-focus on Nintendo characters" Smash, so while there's conjecture in that assumption (and loads of it) it's not without reason.

Adeleine does have moveset potential, and she'd be a practically unique non-fighter fighter, so she's got that going for her. There's a risk of her getting the AT treatment, but getting that would still be a positive for a character who's not often seen in her home franchise.

Want: 50 %

While I've never played Crystal Shards, I hold no ill will towards the painter. She gets points for being a unique character in the setting, having interesting gameplay quirks in Star Allies and for being an interesting character in general. Wouldn't mind her at all.

Noms: Lara Croft x5
 

Jomosensual

Smash Champion
Joined
Aug 13, 2018
Messages
2,014
Adeleine

Chance 0 - Yeah, this is the type of character I talked about before who I think wouldn't work for DLC. No real demand and is 3rd at best on the Kirby depth chart right now. If she ever gets in to Smash I'd be shocked personally, assuming there's no popularity boom in the future.

Want 0 - Can't say I'd be overly hyped about this. Like I mentioned above, theres better picks from her own series here. Not to mention that if we're going to dip into 1st party picks that there's so many more I want over Adeleine. Not interested in this in the slightest.

Predictions
Another Western Rep - 22. 19
Gene - 2.56

Noms
League of Legends rep x5
 

chocolatejr9

Smash Hero
Joined
Sep 30, 2018
Messages
8,261
Adeleine

Chance: 0%
I'm sorry, but there is no way she's getting in before Bandana Dee, Marx, or even Magolor. She only recently became relevant again thanks to Kirby Star Allies, so she doesn't have as much prevelance in the general concious. Plus, Sakurai prefers referencing the Kirby games HE made in Smash, and Adeleine wasn't created until after he left.
Want: 15%
I'm indifferent towards her. I'd honestly rather get Bandana Dee in first. Although at this point, I'll take ANY new Kirby character.

Nominations: Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x5
 

Jomosensual

Smash Champion
Joined
Aug 13, 2018
Messages
2,014
Will there be another rerate period once the fighters pass ends, kinda like what we did post E3? Feels like a good spot for one if we're going to do something like that at all again
 

Among Waddle Dees

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Mar 23, 2017
Messages
386
At long last... I've been waiting for this!

Adeleine!!!

Chance: 4.5%. Here's the problem: Adeleine's ship has probably sailed... or to be more accurate, it's never arrived at port. For some reason, she has not appeared in Smash in any form. No sticker, no trophy, no spirit. In fact, she has not been present in any of Sakurai's works, which is why the assumption that he doesn't like her is so common. And frankly... there might be some truth to it. Sakurai seems to not use anything that isn't in his vision, and I fear he might not have envisioned humans being plausible characters in Kirby. After all, he's the one who seems insistent Kirby was eight inches tall and negated the usage of humans in the Kirby anime. But even if this SOMEHOW wasn't the case whatsoever... 18 years of absence has taken a toll on her priority. She's one of the more popular female Kirby characters and possibly the most popular Kirby painter... but is not a frontrunner in anything else. Again, she doesn't have a spirit, but we don't know if that'll change or mean anything. And of course, that isn't counting Kirby's representation, the presumed DLC approach, and any other problems she might face.

Want: 100%. It's so frustrating.

I've been waiting for Adeleine to appear in Smash in some format for over a decade, and haven't gotten anything. Although I initially wanted Bandana Dee as a fighter prioritized, this very site made me realize that there's a demand for Adeleine that should be acknowledged. At the time, she desperately needed it. 64 has been my favorite Kirby game for years, and as a result, I've wanted the 64 cast to be recurring characters for a very long time. But while Dedede and Waddle Dee became constants, everyone else vanished. For Adeleine, this was problematic, because she had an interesting take on Paint Roller's gimmick and a lot of potential, but hadn't shown up in any Kirby game between 64 and July 5, 2018, apart from the extremely rare collectible. In 2015 I began fearing that HAL no longer had use for her and would replace her with a similar character either from Rainbow Curse or in future. In part, this was why I pursued a voice in trying to bring her back. And despite almost losing hope in the cause, last year it paid off. Star Allies, a game I was dreading that could've seal her retired fate, actually took a chance and brought her in the limelight, complete with acknowledged legacy and popularity. It was a touching moment.

Of course, this is about Smash. In terms of Smash, I feel very little has changed. There doesn't seem to be any room for a new Kirby rep, and chances are if there is one, it'll be from the "sacred" four. I've grown fed up with this pattern and I'd like it to stop, but there isn't an easy way for it to. Unless... Adeleine could have access to a potential summoning moveset that may allow her to tap into drawings that depict Kirby's history.

I realize that in the slim possibility she gets in, it may cause a LOT of confusion, but at the end of the day, I just want a direct reference. Although it would be kind of poetic of her to get a fighter role, due to how much of a turnaround it would be. After Star Allies almost killed her chances of ever coming back, and then suddenly did a 180 move that put her in the game (in a playable format, no less), it would be such a fitting finale to have her appear in Smash. I don't know if she would exactly solve all my problems, but I suspect that much like Star Allies, I can find peace with an aspect of her in the game. But unless that happens, I don't know... I may be forced to be at odds with Smash's direction.



Abstaining on the rest, I'm content for now.
 
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Sari

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Adeline Adelein Adeleine

Chance: 1%
Not third party and has a ton of first party competition. To my surprise she is actually not a spirit but I doubt that changes anything for her in the long run. She also has major competition within her own series in the form of Bandana Dee who is way more popular.

Want: 15%
I never really got into the Kirby games so I'd be lying if I said I really want her. She looks cute though so I wouldn't be too mad if she got in.

Gene chance prediction: 0.85%
Another Western character chance prediction: 38.32%

Nominations:
Quote (Cave Story) x5

Will there be another rerate period once the fighters pass ends, kinda like what we did post E3? Feels like a good spot for one if we're going to do something like that at all again
Yes we are planning to do this.
 

Troykv

Smash Master
Joined
Jan 24, 2015
Messages
3,990
Will there be another rerate period once the fighters pass ends, kinda like what we did post E3? Feels like a good spot for one if we're going to do something like that at all again
I think after the release of the fifth character (and which would also confirm the nature of the post-Fighter pass character) it would be the best moment to do so because the context changed.
 

DrifloonEmpire

Smash Champion
Joined
Aug 2, 2019
Messages
2,219
Adeleine, Premiere Artist of Dream Land

Chance: 5% - I adore Adeleine and I think she would make for a fantastic character, and a good, fun, unique female rep as well! However, a lot is standing in her way, which will make things difficult for our artist friend. Firstly, there are Kirby characters with more demand than her, most notably Bandana Dee, Marx, and Nightmare, so if Sakurai ddoes choose to add another Kirby character it'll likely be one of those three. But the most problematic is Sakurai's iews on the series and what he decides to add. The great majority of the content is from the games he's worked on (Kirby's Adventure, Dramland 1, Super Star, Air Ride), and games outside of that typically get little fanfare. being from Kirby 64 puts her outside of the bubble. Still, Sakurai could always surprise us!

Want: 80% - Most of my favorite Kirby games come from outside of the ones Sakurai worked on, like Kirby 64, Dreamland 3, and Returns to Dreamland. So I have a much greater connection to characters like Bandana Dee and Adeleine than a character like Marx. So if Bandana Dee isn't chosen then I really hope it's her! Furthermore, there are so many possibilities for a paint-based moveset, Sakurai has a lot he can play with here!


Nominations:
[Rerate] Dovahkiin x5

Predictions:
Geno - 10.82%
Another Western Rep - 23.61%



Also what exactly happens when the Top 7 is locked?
 

DaUsername

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Finally
Chance: 0.1%
Yeah, she was in Star Allies, but so was everyone else. If we get a Kirby newcomer it'll most likely be Bandana Dee.
Want: 30%
I'm a Dee fan but I wouldn't mind if Adeline made it in. She's a cool character.

Gene prediction: 0%
Western character prediction: 70%
Noms: Ryu Hayabusa x5
 
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Troykv

Smash Master
Joined
Jan 24, 2015
Messages
3,990
Adeleine day!

Chance: 5%

Damn, Adeleine's story with Smash is sad, being one of the few characters with multiple appearances that had never show up in Smash in some way or another. But this could be good news this time, because of the potential of be considered as Smash DLC, though, she will always be behind Bandana Dee in everyone's minds.

Want: 85%

I always support my Kirby bois and gals. Kirby is my favorite franchise and Adeleine has probably one of my favorite designs and skillsets in the franchise, she is so cute and her abilities are quite fun and cool.

Predictions:

Gene (God Hand): 1.65% (so... this is the game that Mikami's team in the PS2?)
Concept: Another Western Character: 45.6%

Nominations:

Micaiah (Fire Emblem) x5
 
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DanganZilla5

Smash Champion
Writing Team
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Mar 5, 2019
Messages
2,369
Adeleine

Chance: 0.5%

She would have a unique moveset, based on painting, and that's it. Bandana Dee would absolutely get in first and if it's taking this long for him to get in, that isn't a good sign for other Kirby characters like Adeleine. Not to mention I don't think she has a spirit, meaning no representation whatever. She seems like a character that would be such a "why?" pick. Why would she get in before 10 (or even 20) other Nintendo characters like Isaac and Waluigi? Not happening.

Want: Abstain

Not a big Kirby fan so I don't have a lot of knowledge on the character.

Noms: Kratos x5

Predictions:
Another western character: 45%
Gene: 5%

Hm. Didn't we do Geno not too terribly long ago already?
I vote for him because he was rated before Hero came out and a lot of people were sure he was going to be a Mii Costume released alongside Hero, which didn't happen. Plus, we didn't know if there was going to be more DLC after the fighters pass. Since we know there is more fighters coming, that shoots Geno's chances up as other Square Enix reps now have a chance to get in because there isn't such limited slots now. Sakurai also made a big deal about pleasing the fans and I think this may very well be his chance. I gave him a 1% chance score last time and I would like to boost it and explain why.
 
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GoodGrief741

Smash Legend
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
10,169
Also what exactly happens when the Top 7 is locked?
Wait, does that mean all current nominations will become void and null, reset to 0, unless they're top 7?
It means that whatever characters are in the top seven become the next week's schedule, and that can't be changed. It also means that those characters can't be nominated for a while.

The characters outside the top 7 stay as they are, with the ones with the highest nominations becoming the new top 7.
 

BowserKing

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winnipeg
Adeleine

Chance: 40%. Even if spirits do disconfirm, it's rather suspicious that Adeleine does not even have a spirit in the game. Adeleine also has gotten some recent popularity increase, plus her not in the game yet gives her an upper edge over most first parties (Sword/Shield Rep, Three Houses Rep, Porky and Sylux are exceptions). Competition is an issue, but I think she can make it though.

Want: 100%. Of all the fighters, She is the one I want to see in the fighter's pass the most (12th most wanted fighter overall). She would have a fun moveset, be fun to play as, and we would have another Kirby character in general. I hope Adeleine gets into this game.

Noms: 2 for Earthworm Jim and 3 for Black Shadow
 

Ninjaed

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Nov 7, 2018
Messages
468
Adeleine

Chance: 0%
I don't have much to say other than Kirby offering far better candidates. Besides, why go with one of the human-looking ones?

Want: 0%
I don't want her not because I don't like her or anything like that, but because I feel she has no place being a fully playable character in smash. She's coming from a franchise already represented by 3 characters, a boss and more. If we wanted more Kirby, there are simply better options I think.

Predictions:
Gene - 1%
If we're getting a Clover rep, it's either Viewtiful Joe or even more likely Amaterasu.

Another western character - 45%
Many people here want doomguy, master chief or another western rep. I'd even say 45% is low-balling it.

Nominations: Riesz x5
 

warpenguin55

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Aug 20, 2018
Messages
490
Adeleine
Chance: 1%
The 1% I'm giving her is because shes first party. Bandana Waddle Dee is at the top of the list of Kirby characters to be added, and assuming that no series will get multiple unique characters as DLC, it doesn't look good for her. Bandana Waddle Dee has been in more games than her (He's been in 9 compared to her 4). Bandana Waddle Dee has much more demand than her and, quite frankly, more people know who he is than Adeleine.

Want: 0%
I don't think Kirby needs any more reps. The 3 we have now cover the series well enough.

Noms:
A League of Legends rep x5

Monokuma is listed twice on the standings btw
 
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