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Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

TheFritzle

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Jul 18, 2014
Messages
104
Jibanyan Chance:
8%
I really don't see him getting in. He doesn't have the fame or mystique that the other third parties have. The only reason he isn't 0% is that he is popular in Japan and Sakurai can be really unpredictable.

Jibanyan Want:
0%
Something about Jibanyan irritates me really hard.

Marx Predictions:
14.10%

Nominations:
Sylux x5
 

andimidna

Smash Master
Joined
Dec 22, 2013
Messages
3,330
Location
Gusty garden galaxy
Jibanyan:
I know him, but not well
Chance: abstain
Want: 60%
A friend of mine is super into this series and would love this, which makes me kinda want it a little
Although looking at the posts above, this sounds like it’d increase the requests for Goku a ton, which is gross, but not his fault. Idk

one communist boi: 8.5%
I’m taking a risk and going low wew

x2 Azura
x2 Ghirahim
x1 Style Savvy character
 

Munomario777

Smash Master
Joined
Nov 18, 2014
Messages
3,253
Location
Charleston, South Carolina
3DS FC
0387-9596-4480
Switch FC
SW-8229-3157-8114
Jibanyan

Chance: 5%. Pretty lacking in international popularity, and a YW character has some competin' to do with other third parties. It'd also have the least real "history" of any third-party in Smash.

Want: 1%. Don't care either way.



Predictions

Marx: 10%. He was in KSA, and has some moveset potential to him. Has to compete with folks like Bandana Dee though.



Nominations: Blue Bowser x5
 

Pennate

Smash Cadet
Joined
Aug 27, 2015
Messages
56
Jibanyan:

Chance: 7%
Sakurai seems to choose third-party characters based on iconicity and/or international appeal. Unfortunately for Jibanyan, Yokai Watch is dead outside of Japan, and its popularity is dwindling in its homeland as well. Jibanyan's popularity was relatively high around the time of Smash Balot, though, so his chances aren't completely shot.

Want: 0%
I have no interest in this character.

Nominations:
Ganon x5
 

Erureido

Smash Hero
Joined
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Erureido
3DS FC
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Jibanyan

Chance: 20%

He is up there for one of the most likely Level 5 reps, as Yokai Watch managed to be a big hit in Japan (and it was because of that he was popular over there). However, he isn't as popular with the international audience, and apparently, I'm only just now learning that his series has been losing popularity in Japan. Yeah, that makes me more doubtful about him now.

Want: 0%

I remember playing the Yokai Watch demo once, and I couldn't find myself enjoying the game. Not only that, but when it comes to Level 5 reps, Professor Layton is the one I want.

------

Predictions

Marx (Kirby): 9.15%

How well he'll do tomorrow comes down to how people will interpret his recent inclusion in Star Allies will factor into things.

------

Nominations

Leo (Fire Emblem Fates): x5

I'm only nominating him for now just to save him from the nomination chopping block coming up in a few days.
 

VexTheHex

Smash Ace
Joined
Mar 30, 2018
Messages
567
Just a friendly warning, the OP already said the next day officially starts when he announces it, and he won't count scores that jump the gun.
Thank you for the heads up. I had work early today and figured I'd post it before work. I honestly would of figured the days starting and ending was based on a certain time and not when the OP wakes up/checks in. Thinking back, the day I "missed" Decideueye's day, it was I think around 30 after when the day ended which confused me as an odd timing. I had forgot the hour time frame and removed my scores. I'll just need to chill about needing to post for everyday if the time frame isn't stable.

Anyways my apologizes for starting the day off early. Reposting this.

Jibanyan
Chance - 5%
3rd Party, Sakurai may feel it isn't global popular enough yet.
Want - 30%
Don't really care for or against it.

Nominations - 5x Greninja
 

Nimbostratus

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Apr 14, 2014
Messages
429
Jibanyan
Chance- ABSTAIN
All comes down to popularity in Japan, of which I won't pretend to be an expert.
Want- 5%
Third party that I have no personal connection to.

Marx Predictions- 12%

Nominations:
Ashley x5
 

ForwardArrow

Smash Ace
Joined
Aug 17, 2011
Messages
502
Jibanyan
Chance: 10%
Yokai Watch has dropped off pretty hard since the period where it was actually a really big deal in Japan, and now its still a top seller but not really the rival to Pokemon it looked to be. I was a bit more worried about it getting a representative based on its huge popularity but given it either lacks staying power or needs time to rebound, its probably not getting in. Nintendo certainly hasn't been shy about promoting Yokai Watch at directs, so its not impossible Jibanyan shows up. He doesn't have a ton of in-franchise competition, with the only real arguments I can think of being Whisper or King Enma from what I've heard.

Want: 0%
I'm not a Pokemon fan by any stretch of the imagination, and there are at least a couple franchises that vaguely overlap with Pokemon's niche that I think are vastly better. So I think it says all I need too that I think 1. Jibanyan's design looks horrible and I found his personality grating from what I saw and 2. Yokai Watch is, far as I'm concerned, Pokemon but worse.

Nominations

Dark Samus x 3
Blue Bowser x 2
 

CatRaccoonBL

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Jibanyan
Chance: 10%
The same rating I give every third party.

Want: 80%
The most obvious thing is that Yo-kai watch is fun to me. Yo-kai watch scratches the rpg itch that I don't think Pokemon will ever really scratch. Pokemon vastly favors having the best type match-ups and doing the most damage in the shortest amount of turns. Tanks and supports don't really help at all and just slow down the game. Team Building has a lot more emphasis on roles in yo-kai watch. It is actually good to have tanks, debuffers, buffers, healers, etc. Theres also all this equipment that helps balance Yo-kai out as well so even the less powerful ones have good uses. The games also have a saturday morning cartoon vibe which is pretty great.

But what about Jibanyan himself? I find him pretty funny, and I do think a moveset makes itself for him so he would probably be fun. Though I would probably prefer Nate with Jibanyan doing most of the standard attacks, but using other yo-kai for specials. But back to Jibanyan, I also just love his backstory. Especially when you learn more about what actually happened. It was sweet.

Nominations:
Veronica (Fire emblem) x5
 

Troykv

Smash Master
Joined
Jan 24, 2015
Messages
3,990
I am legit surprised how fair Jibanyan seems to be rated compared to Layton here. :crazy:

I would have expected more pessimism going into today, but that was not the case.
Well, Jibanyan had such a important hit in the past years (I think in fact, in the 2014-2016 Age it was pretty relevant)

And now is my turn.

Jibanyan.

Chance: 35%

This character only real problem is being too young to have a legacy, because other-wise is the kind of character that would easily fit into Smash Bros (the fact that Level 5 is open to colaborations makes this even more possible), and heck people actually support this little cat.

Want: 50%

I'm a pretty neutral with this franchise in general

_________________

Prediction time!

Marx: 12.6%

Nomination time!

Micaiah (Fire Emblem) x5 (Oh my, I need to start preparing the Micaiah post).
 
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Icedragonadam

Smash Master
Joined
Jul 16, 2014
Messages
4,093
Switch FC
SW-5227-6397-6112
Chance: 15%

Want: 40%

Marx Prediction: 13.91%

Nominate Lucas x3, Stage: New Donk Cityx2
 

TCT~Phantom

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Holy hell that was a lot of work I had today. Unfortunately I will have to post eggmans calcs in the morning, figures it’s fairer to the person who won since they get a full day to use their noms.

Jibanyan

10% Chance

Simply put lack of US exposure and his series being on a decline hurt his chances a lot. The timing just was not there tbh, though maybe a switch game would help him out.

0% Want

No real interest in the character or series.

Nominating Spyro x 5


Day over at 6:00 AM EDT, calcs in the morning
 

Tew

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Mar 28, 2018
Messages
77
Location
Austria
Jibanyan Chance:
5%
As a possible third party character he has a ton of competition. Compared to many of them Yo-kai Watch really isn´t that popular or significant for the gaming history. It´s relatively new and mostly only did well in Japan and seems to decrease in popularity even there already. Though I think a Level 5 Character would be possible or even likely for Smash and from that perspective he seems to me like one of the more likely candidates for that role.

Jibanyan Want:
5%
Really not a fan of the series or his character, but I kinda like his design and think it probably wouldn´t be a clone.


Marx Predict:
14,63%

Nominations:
2x Fjorm
3x Tiki
 

Starcutter

Resident Beedrill
Joined
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Messages
7,221
Location
Viridian Forest
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Legendofrob1
3DS FC
1908-0357-9077
Chance: 12%

Want: ???%

I need to play yo-kai watch first

Marx: 11.3%

Nominate Snip & Clip x5
 

BluePikmin11

Akko is my dear daughter!
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I thought I would say something regarding the Pokemon vs. YW matter. I don't think that argument would negatively affect Sakurai's view point on Jibanyan. Considering what Sakurai said about console wars with Cloud's inclusion, I think the same logic would apply to PKMN vs. YW war. If anything, that argument only would make Jibanyan a more attractive of a choice to Sakurai, a Jibanyan vs. Pikachu match up that would be nearly as awesome to imagine as Mario vs. Sonic. The biggest monster collectng mascots duking it out potentially in Smash Switch. :p
 

Koopaul

Smash Champion
Joined
Oct 29, 2013
Messages
2,336
But, I am not sure if Sakurai would look into as far of a detail as that, he would probably know Jibanyan more as a video game character than not, given the franchise's huge popularity spike when YW2 came out.
Are you sure about that? Mangas are HUGE in Japan. Even more popular than anime. I'm sure in Japan the manga launched the success of the series.
 

BluePikmin11

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That's extremely assumptious when you don't know how the YW manga itself performed. The manga primarily served as a pre-promotion for the YW1 game, an adaptation of the upcoming video game. And again, YW is a multimedia franchise, in which the anime, merchandise, and manga serve to sell the video games, the core of the apple.
 
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Ok what came first. The game being announced or the manga? That's the main thing. If it was a game announced and a manga to go with it, he's fine. If it's a manga that then got other types of media jibanyan is ****ed.
:061:
 

CatRaccoonBL

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Ok what came first. The game being announced or the manga? That's the main thing. If it was a game announced and a manga to go with it, he's fine. If it's a manga that then got other types of media jibanyan is ****ed.
:061:
I would assume the game getting announced first since they released in the same year. And I have a feeling it takes a lot longer to make one game then it is to make 1 manga volume.
 

Graizen

Smash Champion
Joined
Jun 22, 2012
Messages
2,995
Jibanyan
Chances:
10%
Want: 1%

Why? Why put Youkais when we have Digimon? My God.

Nomination:
Agumon x5
 

BluePikmin11

Akko is my dear daughter!
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Ok what came first. The game being announced or the manga? That's the main thing. If it was a game announced and a manga to go with it, he's fine. If it's a manga that then got other types of media jibanyan is ****ed.
:061:
The first Yo-kai Watch game was officially unveiled by Level-5 at the 2011 Tokyo Game Show, where it was announced during the company's annual Level-5 Vision press conference. The manga and anime are more of a complementary thing for the game.
 
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ProfPeanut

Smash Ace
Joined
Oct 1, 2008
Messages
727
Jibanyan

Chance: 40%
Sleeping on Yokai Watch for being young is dangerous. Yokai Watch hit Japan so powerfully that it punched a hole into every Japanese parent's wallet, and Nintendo's already shown it's all-too glad to push for its continued success - the number of people who went to buy Yokai Watch games was ridiculous, and anyone who wanted to do so had to buy the Nintendo system that supported it. Add to that the fact that this is Level-5 who owns them, a company milking this franchise so hard that it nabbed cross-promotions from the likes of Square Enix to the freaking Olympics. In any realistic interpretation of these things, Layton has already been cleared off of their discussion table.

What keeps Jibanyan and his franchise's ambitions in check, then, is the very fact that their ambitions are loftier than they could actually realize. After movies, crossovers, and entire merchandise stores devoted to it, Yokai Watch now stares at its own decline, a sign that they might've just been a flash in the pan after all, rather than a new and enduring IP. For a franchise to stay around in the long term, you have understand what exactly makes it so appealing to people - and Level-5's recent turnaround of the franchise into some horror knock-off suggests that maybe they don't. Sakurai would especially choose the classical fire cat if he ever made the choice, which would run counter to Level-5's current strategy of rebooting absolutely everything.

I wouldn't say its Japan-centricism is what holds it back - Sakurai included an unlocalized medieval turn-based RPG into Smash, after all. Rather, I think it's its identity as a passing fad, an eruption of popularity that now faces the threat of death if it keeps going down this path. But right now, Yokai Watch still does a heck of a lot better than most other franchises, even moreso back in 2016 when the roster was likely completed, and it's doing plenty to try claw that success back to it. Not to mention that Jibanyan has all the connections it needs to state its case, what with Nintendo and Level-5's close relationship, and can even entice the possibility of a direct confrontation between itself and the Pokemon franchise. I don't doubt that there was pressure on Sakurai from his higher-ups to consider a Jibanyan inclusion - the question becomes whether he thinks Yokai Watch's crescendo in popularity could stand in for the years of history that makes other 3rd-parties viable.


Want: 20%
The mascot of a distinct example of a successful game franchise appearing even in this day and age, Jibanyan's fairly up there in terms of moveset potential and modern relevance, trumping a good number of characters on both fronts. But his franchise's pride is its downfall, and like Digimon before it, I can't help but wonder if we'd really be honouring the games with such an inclusion, when it seems more as if the root of its success is the mass of media surrounding it.


Prediction:
Marx: 8.7%

Nominations:
Papyrus (Undertale) x5
 
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Kirby Dragons

Smash Hero
Joined
Aug 30, 2014
Messages
5,015
Location
Another Dimension
I really need to stop missing days, but I'm glad I came back when I did.

Chance: 75%

Yo-Kai Watch was massively huge in Japan. I've even heard it was more popular than Pokémon (which I don't actually believe). I was going to post a post about Jibanyan being dangerously underrated in the speculation thread. Yet, while doing research to support my point, I saw how the YKW sales had been decreasing since 2015 or so. This is a big blow towards Jibanyan's chances, but the character himself if still potentially a popular one. Jibanyan was one of Japan's most wanted characters around 2015, after all. Since Nintendo publishes Yo-Kai Watch here, that leads to a good relationship between the two companies, and also a good relationship between Nintendo and the series.

Want: 37.76%
Nominations: Urban Champion ×5
 

Nebelung

Smash Cadet
Joined
Mar 15, 2018
Messages
73
Jibanyan!

Chances- 40%

I dunno, I think he's not completely shot out of a chance. Cute and interesting character that's appealing in design, I think it works even without Yokai Watch's Western popularity. Maybe not a BIG chance but I think he can be likely!

Want- 70%

Maybe if it was Komasan i would want him more. :urg: He is still cute though!

Nomination: Sable Prince x5
 

TCT~Phantom

Smash Master
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TCT~Phantom
Dr. Eggman
11.81% Chance
42.74% Want

Get a load of this. Many high want scores because you know what they say the more the merrier. Many low scores because no one wants to go to Eggmanland. Overall a decent performance, can't wait to rate Tails.

Jibanyan
15.79% Chance
17.88% Want

Wow. Jibanyan has become our lowest wanted character. I don't know if there will be anyone for a while that will be rater lower. Chance wise that was pretty low too.

ProfPeanut ProfPeanut gets 5 extra noms for Eggman. @Organization XIII gets 5 extra noms for Jibanyan.

Today we are rating Marx. Please rate Marx in chance and want. Also predict the scores for Lucina.
 
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Opossum

Thread Title Changer
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Marx

Chance: 9%
That's including DLC. If it was main game only I'd drop it to zero.
Want: 65%
He's adorable and psychotic.

Predicting a 58 for Lucina
Nominating Marth Gets His English Voice x5
 

Dr. Jojo Phantasma

The Chessmaster
Joined
Mar 8, 2018
Messages
2,079
Marx
Chance: 5%
If we get anyone from Kirby, it will be Bandana Dee.

Want: 0%
Haven't played games that involved him.

Lucina: Optimistically I want to say about 80%, but I know how this is going to go tomorrow, so 60%

x5 to Elma
 

Tew

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Mar 28, 2018
Messages
77
Location
Austria
Marx Chance:
8%
I think one new Kirby Character is likely, but also probably will be Bandana Dee rather than Marx. Though we could also see 2 new Kirby Characters, or maybe they´ll go with a villain (which Smash definitely needs). But even then Marx has competition with Magolor, Galacta Knight (ok not really a villain) and Dark Matter (Sword). From these he probably has the biggest chance followed by Magolor.

Marx Want:
15%
Could have an interesting moveset and I like the Kirby franchise, but I´d prefer Galacta Knight, Bandana Dee or Magolor over Marx.


Lucina Predict:
68,89% (I´d think higher, but it seems many believe she is one of the most likely to be cut)

Nominations:
2x Fjorm
3x Tiki
 

nirvanafan

Smash Champion
Premium
Joined
Oct 14, 2016
Messages
2,465
Jibanyan
Chances: 10%
Want: 5%

Marx
Chances: 30%
Want: 10%

Nomination: Linkle X5
 

NeonBurrito

Smash Ace
Joined
Aug 10, 2013
Messages
727
Location
(´・ω・`)
Karl Marx

Chance - 1%

He's a one-off character from a game two decades ago in a series that seems to prefer characters that have some staying power. Even in terms of villains who aren't exactly relevant in the Kirby scheme anymore, he doesn't even have multiple returns in the franchise, like villains such as Dark Matter and Magolor.

He did come back as Star Allies DLC, but I REALLY doubt that the Star Allies DLC had been planned that far ahead to be put in the project plan that seemingly had been finalized around late 2016 / early 2017.

He has Sakurai Kirby-bias (Sakurai does tend to prefer Kirby games he's made), I guess? Although, I think it's kind of hard to ignore the Kumazaki Kirby games at this point, considering they've been the main Kirby games for the past decade, whereas when Smash 4 came around, there was only Return to Dream Land and Super Star Ultra (if that even counts).

Of course, all of this is even WITHOUT mentioning the obvious bandana-wearing elephant in the room. I really feel like Marx would need to wish on NOVA to be in the base game. I think he's prime Assist Trophy material, because he falls into pretty much the same spot Nightmare does: one-time final boss of a Sakurai-made Kirby game.

If his Star Allies popularity continues for the next couple of years though (which I kind of doubt because I feel some future Dream Friends like Adeleine and Magolor will overshadow him a good amount), he may have a shot at DLC. Who's to say?

Want - 40%

He'd be more interesting than Bandana Waddle Dee for sure (don't kill me Smashboards), but if we're going to be talking about out-there Kirby picks, I'd rather have my lad, Gooey.

Nominations:
Linkle x5
 
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Zeox

Smash Champion
Joined
Sep 1, 2014
Messages
2,258
Location
Akrillic Island
Marx
Chances: 75%
He has been referenced in tons of kirby games, being the main villain of 2 (even if one is just a remake of the other) being the final boss of a kirby minigame, cameos in planet robobot, triple deluxe, return to dream land, and recently playable in Star Allies, also he is a villain, Smash really needs more villains, and Marx is one of the fan favorites with Dark Matter/ Zero.
Want: 100%
As a big kirby fan since the super nintendo games, it would make me pretty happy to finally have Marx in Smash, specially since he have such a cool moveset in Star Allies.
Also, his theme rocks.
 

BluePikmin11

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I can only see Marx being considered for playability if Sakurai wanted to explore more Kirby choices for Smash beyond Dee. Given that HAL Laboratory would likely encourage Sakurai to add Bandanna Dee around early 2016 and assuming that Dee gets passed over due to lack of notable gameplay potential, I can see more Kirby characters being considered very briefly, that including Marx due to him being a notable villain in Kirby games Sakurai has worked on. But, I think Sakurai feels content enough with King Dedede and Meta Knight to not add any more additions, unless HAL really encourages and pushes Sakurai to seriously consider another Kirby character. Marx will be nothing more than a one-minute consideration to Sakurai, in my personal opinion.

x5 Sora
 

Depressed Gengar

Hana Is Best Girl
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Marx Chance: 5%
Honestly, there's no way this one's getting in outside of DLC. While I do think Star Allies had amazing timing, the DLC for Star Allies was probably more of an afterthought that came after the roster was decided. And then he has to compete with Bandana Dee and Galacta Knight, both of which from the look of things stand a far better chance.

Want: 20%
I'd much rather have Bandana Dee and Dark Matter as far as Kirby characters go.

Lucina Prediction: 70%

Nominations: Gengar X5

:094:
 

Troykv

Smash Master
Joined
Jan 24, 2015
Messages
3,990
Dr. Eggman
11.81% Chance
42.74% Want

Get a load of this. Many high want scores because you know what they say the more the merrier. Many low scores because no one wants to go to Eggmanland. Overall a decent performance, can't wait to rate Tails.

Jibanyan
15.79% Chance
17.88% Want

Wow. Jibanyan has become our lowest wanted character. I don't know if there will be anyone for a while that will be rater lower. Chance wise that was pretty low too.
I want to know how The Eggman compared with Tails (I'm expecting similar Chance Rates but heavily higher Want Rates)

Oh poor little Jibanyan, I was expecting a Low Want Score, but this is freaking hilarious levels of bad xD

______________________________

Marx, the good ol'fav villain that isn't part of the Main Cast.

Chance: 15% (My good old chance rate for popular characters in complicated sittuations).

Marx is a very popular character, and an archetype for several villains in the next games (alongside Dark Matter, the other main villain archetype). He also has fun character potential with his ridiculous attacks; also, he is a Sakurai character :p

Marx problem is being a character that just recently recover relevancy (and in the process, overshadowing fellow old character Gooey) and he needs to fight for a spot in the roster against Bandana Waddle Dee because it's unlikely we get two Kirby characters at the same time again.

Want: 80%

Kirby representation is always nice :D

___________________________

Prediction time!

Lucina: 70.5% (Lucina is expandable, but she is still a extremely popular character)

Nomination time!

Micaiah (Fire Emblem) x5 (I'm almost ready for Micaiah's Day :D )
 
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CWCPT00

Smash Cadet
Joined
Mar 15, 2018
Messages
49
Marx:

Chance: 7.5%

Unfortunately the Star Allies DLC came way too late, if it was announced before the games release maybe his chance would be a little bit higher but not too much. If there’s going to be a Kirby newcomer it will be Bandana Dee.

Want: 92.5%

Marx is actually my 2nd most wanted newcomer and I would absolutely love it if he miraculously made it into Smash. He is just ahead of Bandana Dee in terms of want (Bandana Dee is my 3rd most wanted character though) and he definitely would be a character I would like to play as every now and then. Also, Marx as seen from Kirby Super Star and now Star Allies, he has a lot of moveset potential which would be amazing to see in Smash.


Lucina:

Chance: 57.5%

Has an amiibo like every other Smash veteran, I feel like that could be the deciding factor for every character to end up staying for the next Smash. However, Lucina is copy & paste version of Marth but is a female instead, so I wouldn’t be surprised either if she ended up getting the cut.


Nominations:


Spyro x5
 

Zerp

Formerly "ZeroSoul"
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Marx
Chances: 30%
It really depends on who's the director because of the Superstar bias Sakurai has. The way I see it is if it's not Sakurai, Marx is kinda likely and up there with Dark Matter Blade for Kirby reps but solidly behind Bandana Dee, but if it's Sakurai in charge I think it's likely he could use Marx's recent appearance in Star Allies as a opportunity to avoid representing the games not made by him yet again and is actually the most likely Kirby rep.

Want: 20%
I feel really mixed on Marx, on one hand I love the character, but on the other hand I'm more than a little sick of almost everything Kirby in Smash being from Superstar and the noticeable lack of content from Kumazaki and Shimomura's games. My want for Marx will probably shoot up the moment we get any Kirby character that isn't really associated with Sakurai's games like Bandana Dee (Technically from Superstar but he really became his own character outside of Sakurai's games) or Dark Matter.

Prediction: Lucina 69%
Nominations: Dark Matter Blade x 5
 
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Sailor Waddle Dee

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Jun 10, 2014
Messages
402
MARX

Chance: 40% - he's always been a popular character in the Kirby franchise, and his return to the series with Star Allies is a definite point in his favor, but if any Kirby character gets in, Bandana Dee seems the most likely. Marx is definitely second most likely though. that is, unless Sakurai Bias comes into play, then Marx probably has a better chance than Dee. but I'm going with 40%

Want: 70% - I like Marx, he's cool. and more villains is a good thing. he isn't among my biggest wants, but I'd definitely like to see him get in. (not before Bandana Dee though. but if we can get both, that would be awesome)

Lucina Prediction: 48%

Nominations

Qbby x5
 
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