Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[nirvanafan]

Wolf

Chances: 90%
Star Fox has had a bit of time back in the spot light for better or worse with Star Fox Zero/Guard and Star Fox 2 so a new rep could happen. I think we will get a veteran who missed Smash 4 to return and Wolf seems the most likely because of what I mentioned above plus he is likely easier to implement being a semi-clone than other popular picks like Ice Climbers or Pokemon Trainer.

Want: 100%
Wolf was the only Star Fox character I enjoyed playing as for some reason and I want him back, plus more villains is a good thing.

Nomination: Miciah X5

 

[a smart guy]

Wolf

Chance: 75% I'm bullish on Wolf's chances. I'm still of the opinion the game will be a port, so it makes sense to add in someone who was dearly missed. Also, I don't think Star Fox is dead. Yes, Zero wasn't very good, but that doesn't mean that it killed the franchise. The same thing happened with Other M, but now Metroid is experiencing a revival. I have no doubt that will happen to Star Fox.
Want: 90% He was my brother's main, and he was bummed when Wolf didn't get in. I'm hoping we can howl once more.

Predictions: Isaac 45%

Nominations: Chibi-Robo x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Wolf

Chance: 25%
I'm not nearly as confident. He almost missed the boat for Brawl (with data showing he was completed after Sonic, Brawl's final addition, proving he was low priority) and Smash 4's DLC passed him over. The series is only gonna get bigger, so Wolf will just be less and less of a priority. Honestly I think he was a one and done thing.

Want: 100%
I liked him though.


Predicting a 19% for Isaac, and a 100% chance that at least one person misspells his name.

Nominating Celica x5

If someone does misspell it I will give you an extra nomination.

 

[Megaban]

Chance: 88%
No reason not to be in like Ice Climbers. I still have no idea WHY Wolf was cut to begin with. He's not 100% just because he DID get cut and it wasn't limitations of 3ds which did it. But we got Mewtwo back, we got Doc back. Wolf is likely coming back too.

Want: 75%
Duh. He was like my 2nd played character in Brawl. I was angry not seeing him in Smash 4, I'd love seeing him this time.

Nominations: Lana x5

Prediction: Isaac -35%.

 

[Morbi]

Wolf

Chance: 75%
I thought he was a shoe-in last time. I still believe Mewtwo should be guaranteed, and yet, both were cut. I have no idea what Sakurai has against these characters, but whatever it is, I am not going to underestimate it again. The only reason I even put the chance so high is because of the Smash ballot. As more time went on and this "given" character was neglected, people started trying to show support.

Want: 100%
The best Star Fox character and arguably one of the best Nintendo antagonists past classics such as Bowser and Ganon. He was not even a clone and I would love to see a redesign that was not so hillbilly-esque.

 

[Pureownege75]

Wolf

Chances - 65%
Everyone thought he was a shoo-in for Smash 4 DLC considering Star Fox Zero was on the horizon. With how that game turned out I don't think he's as likely as he once was. He did pretty well in the ballot though which is definitely in his favor. It's peculiar why he got cut in the first place though. If it was just time constraints one would think he would have made it in as DLC like Lucas did. Really not sure what to think about him at this point

Want - 75%
Will always give a villain a favorable want score. And out of the three Star Fox characters in Brawl he was my favorite. That being said I'm not the biggest Star Fox fan so I can't go too high on this one. I'd be happy, but not ecstatic if he returns.

Nominations
Labo-Related Character x5

Isaac Prediction: 30%

 

[Deleted member]

If this thread was pinned in the first place I wouldn't have missed the first four days.
Oh well.



Chance: 85%
I wouldn't be surprised he performed well during the Ballot era and many people missed him. Also having an antihero in the roster is a plus for diversity's sake.

Want: 70%
Wasn't my most played Brawl character but I liked how feral his moveset was.


Nomination:
x5

 

[Organization XIII]

Chance: 60%
Wolf is a pretty popular veteran and I think we're getting this Smash so early because they're going to be reusing a lot of assets from 4 leaving time for much more content.

Want: 90%
I hate playing as Fox and Falco but Wolf felt so feral that his similar moveset was extremely fun. It was a pretty sad cut for me. I would love to see him return but there are some other characters I want more.

 

[Llort A. Ton]

Grouchy Space Mutt

Chance- 70%
Star Fox Zero... happened, and Wolf was pretty popular in the Smash Ballot. I do wonder, though, why this semi clone in particular was left behind in favor of Dark Pit, Dr Mario and Lucina in the base game and ignored again in favor of Roy and Lucas when DLC rolled out. Maybe Sakurai isn't fond of the character? Whether that be true or not, the fans are fond of the character, so I think Wolf has a fair shot this time around.

However, if this game has DLC, they may hold him off use him as a hype tool like how Mewtwo was from October 2014 to his release in April 2015. I can easily see a Smash Bros direct played weeks before the game launches, and near the end there's an announcement saying "Fan favorites like Wolf are coming in 2019!" I'd prefer that veterans be in the base game, though.

Want- 60%
I like the character and the game he's from, but I'm not fond of his playstyle. I'll welcome back any of the cut veterans, but unless they change him up a little I can't see myself playing him much.

Isaac- 14.7%

Doomguy X 3
Banjo Kazooie X 1
Crash X 1

 

[Nonno Umby]

Wolf

Chance: 75%

He is a supported veteran, and he had nothing going against him besides low priority. He was also quite unique for being a last minute addition.

Want: 75%

I didn't play him much, but I like the character. And I know what it feels to lose your main.

Nomination: 5x Phoenix Wright

 

[PeridotGX]

Wolf

Chances: 75%. He's an easy to remake semi-clone that was pretty popular.

Want: 50%. I'm indifferent either way.

EDIT: Nominations. Kamek x3, Marx x2.

 

[Erureido]

Wolf

Chance: 65%

He had a massive following during the Smash 4 DLC days, and he still has some solid popularity going into Smash 4. His veteran status also helps him however. He was low priority in Brawl, and when he got axed in Smash 4, it seems like Sakurai still considered him low priority at the time as well.

There's also Star Fox Zero to consider. While it did come out recently, thus giving Wolf enough relevancy, the game was a low point for the Star Fox series. Of course, this doesn't necessarily destroy his chances. Other M was a flop for the Metroid series, and it still got representation in Smash. Thus, I'd say Wolf's chances ultimately come down to how much priority Sakurai will give to Wolf for this upcoming title.

Want: 75%

He is one of my secondaries in Brawl and one that I enjoy using in that game. I'll be happy to see him come back if he does make the cut, but compared to the past, my hype for Wolf has died down compared to other characters. If he doesn't make the cut, I won't be bothered too much.

------

Predictions

Isaac (Golden Sun): 18.29%

He's got popularity, but relevancy is holding him back.

------

Nominations

Professor Layton (Professor Layton): x5

 

[FrozenRoy]

Chances: 40%

I think people overrate his chances. Star Fox Zero, sadly, was a bust, so I do not believe it affords Wolf a big chance. Him being a veteran who was fairly well liked is the biggest thing boosting his chances, as he was quite popular and lots of people were sad he was cut, that could get him either way, and if they make a new Star Fox game or a port (say, SFZ to the Switch without the contnrol scheme) then his chances would get a major boost.

Want: 85%

I quite enjoyed playing Wolf in Brawl, aside from his recoveries clipping onto every ledge in the universe anyway, and my love of Star Fox 64 (and enjoyment of Star Fox Assault) wants him in as well, as he is very obviously the best Star Fox character not in the game right now. Returning veterans are for the most part a good thing. So, I'd be pretty hype for him returning, yeah.

Nominations:

Specter Knight x3
2B x1
Travis Touchdown x1

Prediction: Isaac

11.11%

 

[Kirby Dragons]

You guys need to advertise this, I figured it'd be made but didn't know where to find it.

Chance: 30%
Want: 20%

Nominations: Urban Champion x5

 

[Sid-cada]

Wolf O'Donnel

Chance - 55% - Star Fox Zero was, as the name implies, a zero. While he did get something out of it, on top of being a cut veteran, a clone is somewhat easier to cut. It's hard to say, so I'm leaning slightly over coin flip.

Want - 80% - I want him back, but not supper badly.


Prediction

Isaac - 19.34% - Burred in dirt...

Nominations
Anna X5

 

[MrNantendo]

Wolf

Chance: 90%

I feel pretty good about Wolf. He is an easy add and I am sure Sakurai is aware that fans want him back. It just comes down to whether Sakurai wants to add veterans or focus on new (other than Icies of course).

Want: 70%

Wolf was my favourite of the trio so I hope he comes back.

Nomination: Susie (kirby) x5

 

[BandanaWaddleDee]

Ooh this thing. Alrighty then

Wolf
Chance: 75%
I'd put his chances higher, but Starfox Zero was a heaping dumpster fire and really hurt the franchise. But he's a veteran and popular.

Want: 100%
#FreeWolf

Isaac Prediction
Chance: 45.67%
Want: 70.12%

Nominations:
Sonic x2
Toon Link x2
Snipperclips representation x1

 

[dezeray112]

Wolf
Chance - 80%
Want - 60%

Even though Wolf isn't exactly my cup of tea personally, but I think his chances of coming back are pretty high.

 

[Wyoming]

Wolf

Chance: 40% - would love to believe it is higher, but with the lack of information about this game, I can't put this above 50% right now. If it uses the same engine as Sm4sh, then he has a good shot. If it is a whole new game stripped down to its core, there's almost no chance he makes the base game. As DLC, perhaps. But yeah, I don't think he will be right now.

Want: 100% - fun character, fun personality. Loved his moveset and using him as Brawl (as he was my main there). Sm4sh felt empty without the option to pick him (and since Puff is horrid but you know...)

Isaac prediction: 21.2%

Noms: Black Shadow x4, Phoenix Wright x1

 

[colder_than_ice]

Wolf
Chance: 50% - He was a last minute edition to Brawl who failed to have any role in the subspace emissary. He also didn't even make it into SSB4 and has been consistently treated as a low priority character by Sakurai. On the positive side he has been able to amass a lot of fans from his brief smash appearance and his role in Star Fox Zero makes relevant even if that game was commercially disappointing. I'd give it a coin flip.
Want: 25%

Nominations: New story mode x5

 

[Sailor Waddle Dee]

Wolf

Chance: 50% - like with Snake, this one's a bit up in the air. he's a bit too same-y with Fox and Falco but he's also a veteran and was pretty highly requested to return during the smash ballot. so it's hard to say one way or the other if he'll be in

Want: 50% - i have friends who really liked using him. and i hate to see Nintendo characters cut. but I wouldn't miss him too much if he didn't return.

Isaac Prediction: 92%

Nominations
Qbby (From Boxboy) x3
Banjo & Kazooie x1
Chibi-Robo x1

 

[Troykv]

Wolf (Auuuuu)

Chance: 50%

Of the veterans not in Smash 4, he's the second with the biggest chances to return (only behind Ice Climbers); he has some relevance.... But is a bit of... low priority. But it can definitely happen.

Want: 70%

Wolf fits more my play-style than the other spacies.

Isaac predicion: 19.5%

Nominations: Micaiah (Fire Emblem) x5

<3

 

[Depressed Gengar]

The third spacie

Chance: 70%
I think everything that could be said has been said. That and I'm in a lazy mood right now.

Want: 85%
Wolf was the only cut from the last Smash that genuinely bugs me. The weird thing is that he's not exactly someone too important to leave out of Smash, so... I guesofa small bit of me likes him more than the rest of me wants to admit? I guess?

Isaac prediction: 40%

Nominations: Dr. Eggman X5

 

[YoshiandToad]

Wolf

Chance: 70%
Still not entirely sure why he was cut for no reason. Even as a Mario fan, seeing the Doctor in over him felt like a peculiar choice when you consider Wolf was a quick add at the end of Brawl's dev time. Star Fox on the Wii U was an absolute disaster so I wonder how that'll affect Nintendo wanting a third Starfox character in.

Want: 80%
Probably the only cut I'd like to see back from a personal level since Mewtwo and Roy returned in Sm4sh.

Isaac prediction: 37%

Nominations:
Concept: Zelda newcomer X 5

 

[NonSpecificGuy]

Wolf

Chance: 80%

I still think he has a very high chance despite being left out of the last game. He’s popular, he’s a semi-clone, and he’s a veteran making him an easy choice.

Want: 95%

Not my most wanted, that being Snake, but he’s absolutely a close second. Hopefully he’ll comeback and brin IC’s and Snake with him.


Doom Slayer x5

 

[Pepperoni_Lives]

Wolf
Chance: 75%
Wolf is popular and is a semi-clone, meaning implementing him into Smash 5 wouldn't be as hard as making a new character.

Want: 100%
#FreeWolf

Isaac Prediction: 14.2%

Nominations: Waluigi x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Wolf
80% Chance
Honestly the biggest boon for wolf is his veteran status and the fact that Wolf is easy to make. Star fox zero may have been a bomb but even bombs like Other M have been represented. Only not higher since I was surprised he wasn’t on 4 as DLC.
100% want
Vets will get high wants from me, Wolf is no exception.

Nominating No Cuts x 5
Day over, playtimes over

 

[Ura]

The Golden Boy

Chance: 20%

Camelot seems to be making nothing but Mario Sports games ever since DD. Well that's pretty much what they've been doing before but at least back then they had time for Golden Sun. And to top it off the hiatus between Dark Dawn and the present has been longer than the one from GS1/GS2 to DD. I put Isaac's chances at 20% because I feel the Ballot might help his chances for inclusion.

Want: 100%

With that being said of course Isaac is one of my most requested playable characters for Smash Bros. He has a special niche that would make him much more unique than "another swordsman" with his Psynergy, Dijins, and Summons. His inclusion would also bring more interest in the revival of Golden Sun and Camelot would have to take notice.

Prediction: Bandana Dee

Chance: 82%
Want: 75%

Nomination

Andy X 5

 

[slambros]

Well, if the previous day is over, I'm gonna get a head start so I don't have to distract myself from studying tomorrow.

Isaac

Chance: 25%
I gave Isaac a quarter of a chance. I think that the removal of his assist trophy is a sign that he was at least being heavily considered for last game, and I take that to mean that, with less heavy-hitter competition than last time, Isaac is a little bit closer to the forefront of consideration. But the irrelevancy of Golden Sun still hurts the potential pretty badly...

Want: 100%
I'm gonna end up giving a lot of '100%'s just because that's the kind of guy I am. But I feel like Isaac deserves it. I feel like he'd bring a great moveset to the table that would go beyond a guy with a sword. I wanna be able to stage a fight against Isaac, Link, Marth, and Shulk...

Nominations:
Dillon x5

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Guys that does not mean that you can just start posting Isaac things willy nilly.

 

[Ura]

Guys that does not mean that you can just start posting Isaac things willy nilly.

I saw the "Day Over" post from TCT so I thought I could post the next character.

 

[Deleted member]

Isaac:

Chances: 35%

Isaac has a fan following for sure. In both becoming a Smash Fighter and his series getting more games. But the last Golden Sun game is a decade old now and it wasn't exactly at the pinnacle of positive reception. That lack of relevance really seems to have almost completely killed Isaac's chances. Almost. With how much of a fan following he has the Smash Ballot may end up being his ticket into the game. They did say results of the ballot would be considered for the future after all. But with competition like King K. Rool and other character like Shovel Knight and Shantae (who are little more arguable in this regard I'll admit), I'm not sure he'll be a high enough choice of a ballot pick to make it in.

Desire: 100%

I'm very interested in Golden Sun and I love elemental powers. Earth in particular is one of my favorites and Isaac looks like he would utilize it very well while still staying true to his abilities from his home series. This would be an amazing character to play as.

Nominations:

Robin x1
Lucina x1
Lyndis x1
Anna x1
Celica x1

 

[Bradli Wartooth]

Isaac:
Chance: 30%
I think Isaac is in a weird spot where he has many fans that have voiced their desire to have him in the game, but as years pass, his relevance is getting completely buried. Those who were not around for those games would never know what a "Golden Sun" is. There's so many other RPGs coming out regularly, I think he's just falling to a pit of obscurity.

Want: 50%
I've barely played his game but I think he seems interesting enough.

Nominations:
Mipha x3
Lyn x2

 

[Erimir]

Isaac

Sakurai knows he's wanted by some hardcore fans. He had a shot in Brawl maybe, he was an Assist Trophy. But even though Golden Sun got a sequel between Brawl and Smash 4, Isaac got nada. Not even a regular trophy. Golden Sun's music is still there, but there's not much reason to think Isaac has anymore chance now than he did for Smash 4. I mean, if we were getting a large expansion of the roster, maybe we'd exhaust the character options, but they're going to prefer promoting some of their new games and continuing series. We've got the Inklings. Unrepresented series that are likely to get reps are probably either going to be new series, or very old series (if they add another retro character).

Isaac chances: 2%
Golden Sun's time has passed, Isaac didn't get any more recognition in Smash 4 than he did in Brawl. Maybe if we got some sort of positive Golden Sun news...

Isaac want: 70%
I enjoyed the Golden Sun games, but it's been a long while. He's not at the top of my list, but I would appreciate the inclusion. Although, I might prefer one of the other Golden Sun characters since we have so many sword users... could be more fun to get some other kind of weapon in there. But there are some interesting options for special attacks either way.

Bandana Dee prediction: 48%
There's a weird fanbase for him here, and he's going to get an inexplicably high score.

Nominations:
Lucina x5

 

[TheDukeofDorks]

Y'all gotta wait for TCT to post the results for Wolf before you start rating Isaac

 

[Xenigma]

And I thought I was excited for Isaac's day...

(EDIT: It's pretty late, so I'll save my rant for sometime tomorrow.)

 

[Ura]

Y'all gotta wait for TCT to post the results for Wolf before you start rating Isaac

It's my mistake lol. I though I was in the clear to post, my bad.

 

[Smasher 101]

I knew I should have returned sooner...oh well, better seeing this late than never.

Will join back in tomorrow.

 

[CodeBlue_]

Day 5 Statistics, aka "I get screwed over by different time zones". Seriously it's midnight for you guys on the East Coast right now, who I am supposed to talk to? I missed my chance to vote for Wolf, so just know I would have put Wolf at 75% chance and 95% want.

(without further ado...)

Day 5 Wolf Statistics
Number of Participants: 79 (1 abstained from chance)
Chance:
Mean: 62.21%
Standard Deviation: 18.09%
Outliers (+/- 2 SD from the Mean): >98% or <26.03%

Thoughts: Smashboards is pretty confident about Wolf's chances, albeit less than his counterpart veteran duo. Chances were generally in the 40-50 and 70-80 range and only three people voted him below 30% chance. I expected there to be a distribution closer to Ice Climbers, but considering Wolf was added late in Brawl and I don't believe Sakurai said he planned for him in Smash 4, it's understandable to have these doubts. Once again, a veteran cut that was cut between Brawl and Smash 4 squeaks above a 50/50 coin flip in the eyes of RTC. Let's hope our dreams are realized and shofu can finally have his boy back in Smash.

Want:
Mean: 77.20%
Standard Deviation: 24.57%
Outliers (+/- 2 SD from the Mean): <28%

Thoughts: Our Brawl veterans are not just expected but also wanted more than our previous newcomer and third party contenders. While not as absolutely contested as Ice climbers, Wolf still has a solid positive fanfare. I'm honestly surprised we didn't see more 30% or 50% because of his clone status. I only saw a couple of people really put him lower because of it. But wait, I don't think he is a clone. Maybe In N Out is a clone of McDonalds? Anyway...I just would really love playing as Wolf in a new Smash title, especially if his recovery is less unreliable. Falco was gutted in Smash 4, so I would like to enjoy a Star Fox character again. please give us Wolf, Soccer-eye

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Wolf
62.21% Chance
77.20% Want

Wolf scored second in both Chance and want, only losing out to the Ice Climbers, not a bad bounty for star wolf.

Today we shall rate Isaac, so please rate Isaac in Chance and want. Also please predict the Chance score for Bandanna Dee.

I also apologize for how late this update is, I had a crazy night tonight. As such, all posts that were before this update shall be counted this time. Correct score guess for wolf and the noms list will be updated in the morning.


Also shoutout to CodeBlue_ for the scores, double checked the math myself and they are good, you saved me a ton of time tonight, your statistics are always welcome friend.


In case anyone is wondering for the lateness, I took a dare with a friend to try everything on the McDonald’s secret menu. I went into a food coma lol, too tired to post until now.