Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[ProfPeanut]

Chibi-Robo

Chance: 27%
A definitive B-list Nintendo character who'd been on the lists since the Brawl speculation days, Chibi-Robo's been unfortunate enough to slip down into tier of Bad and Forgotten characters that history's likely to leave behind. He's never really had an impact barring the cult following of his first game, and stands as a relatively-forgettable addition to any library he's tried to plug himself into. While he has the potential to inspire a weird and creative moveset, it's difficult to imagine prioritizing his inclusion over other qualifying characters. He'll have to redeem himself to an outstanding degree if he wants to solidify his chances.

Want: 32%
Might be neat? His concept is a bit too on-the-nose to actually appeal to people (so he's just a trinket-sized robot? Is that it?), and I can't imagine putting other characters aside for him. But he's stuck around long enough and has just enough credentials to be a decent addition, so I won't argue against him.


Predictions:
Shovel Knight: 27%

Nominations:
Arle Nadja (Puyo Puyo) 5x

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Chibi Robo:

Chance: 20%

Want: 20%

Nominations:
Lucina x3
Skull Kid x2

 

[Onyx Oblivian]

Chibi-Robo’s chances are being severely underestimated. I can’t wait to see what unfolds, I’m a little more hopeful.

Chibi Robo’s chances have always been 5%-10% since his debut.... until now.

I’ve done some research to back up what I’m about to say. Based on the estimated timeframe of Sakurai’s design document, this game started Early 2016 (Zip Lash released late 2015)

Sakurai is going to pick ballot winners, and look at games from 2013-2016. Chibi-Robo has 2 games in this time frame.

Sakurai absolutely does not look at a game and then look at sales records. Sakurai looks for uniqueness and moveset potential.

The fact is, this is absolutely the best chance Chibi-Robo has ever had. This isn’t the Brawl or Smash 4 situation again where his last game was Park Patrol.

The game has changed.

Chance: 80%
The pool of possible characters is the smallest it’s ever been and his last two outings were PERFECT timing to the design document creation of this game. Zip Lash demonstrated a Chibi-Robo that fights and has a unique whip mechanic that could totally catch Sakurai’s attention.

Want: 100%
He’s my most wanted Newcomer. I’ve never been so hopeful for his inclusion until now. He absolutely deserves it.

Prediction:
Shovel Knight
25%

Nomination:
Skull Kid x5

 

[AlphaSSB]

Chibi-Robo

Chance: 10% - Not a lot going for him at all. The only thing I can see getting him in is if Sakurai sees moveset potential after Zip-Lash released. Which also released in 2015, around a full year before Smash Switch possible started development. Maybe, if Sakurai looks into 2015 releases and sees potential in him, he'll make it in. Otherwise, I think he'd be lucky to make it in as an Assist Trophy.

Want: 75% - His most recent appearance in Zip-Lash definitely gives him moveset potential. Being able to whip the chord around and latch onto walls would make for an interesting fighter. Won't be too hurt if he doesn't make it in, but him making it would be for a welcome little surprise.

Nominations: Concept - New Story Mode x5

 

[BluePikmin11]

Although Chibi Robo does have relevancy in his favor with the newest game Zip Lash to be considered, sales and critical reception of his recent games unfortunately have made his franchise getting playable representation in Smash a very slim possibility. Unless the newest game manages to do extremely well in both areas, I cannot see him playable in Smash Switch nor future Smash installments. Skip Ltd. needs to improve overall quality of their games, much like Camelot for Golden Sun, if the staff wants to see Chibi Robo see the light of becoming playable.

x5 Octolings

 

[Dr. Jojo Phantasma]

Chibi-Robo
Chance: Abstain
I haven't done my homework on him and his series to give a fair judgement on his chances.

Want: 50%
I don't know about him, but from what others are saying he will have quite a unique moveset and I welcome those kinds of characters.

Predictions:
Shovel knight: 20.5%
x5 to Elma

 

[skylanders fan]

chibi robo

chance 30%
new nintendo0 character just really isn't really big enough to need a spot just yet

want 75%
the guyu is awesome and would love to see him

 

[ShinyRegice]

Chibi-Robo chances: 3.5%
An already niche series that got pretty much the reverse fate of Fire Emblem, I think he'd be lucky to be seriously considered for the roster, let alone prioritized. I think he has a decent chance of getting in as an Assist Trophy, if anything.

Chibi-Robo want: 10%
I don't really care.

Shovel Knight prediction: 26.48%

Nominating:
Concept: veteran character artworks recycled from Smash 3DS/Wii U x5

 

[Rockaphin]

Chibi-Robo:

Chance: 5%

Want: 40%

Prediction:
Shovel Knight: 33.4%

Nominations:
Ken Masters Alt Costume for Ryu x2
Snorlax x3

 

[slambros]

Chibi-Robo

Chance: 55%
It's clear that Nintendo loves the little guy, and it's clear that they know fans love him, too. I'm very confident in his chances. I'm sure Sakurai is aware of his chances.

Want: 100%
I absolutely think Chibi-Robo, as a concept, and as a first-party character, deserves to stand beside Mario and Link and Pit and Kirby and Olimar.

Predictions:
Shovel Knight - 26.51%

Nominations:
Skull Kid x5

 

[nirvanafan]

Chibi Robo

Chance: 50%
Want: 50%

I feel the same way with Chibi Robo that I feel with Waluigi. I could see it going either way with others potentially chosen instead for chances and I would prefer other fighters but am ok with him being added.

Nomination: Linkle X5

 

[-crump-]

Chibi-Robo
Chance: 20%

“Chibi-Robo is iconic, and a relevant example of Nintendo’s up-and-coming, new IPs. think he’s a shoo-in for Smash.”

.....Is what I would say, if we were still back in 2007. Chibi-Robo has fallen on some extremely hard times since he left the GameCube; 4 new games, none of which managed to break new ground or bring in big sales. We reportedly got the “last ditch effort” to make the little guy relevant, and... that was Zip-Lash, so I don’t think I need to tell you how that turned out.

However, the little robot who could does have one advantage to his name: He’s so unique! Can you imagine the crazy things Sakurai could effortlessly do with his original game alone? I’m sure this would be an easy transition, should Sakurai see merit in his inclusion. Hey, maybe he did well enough on the Ballot?

Want: 65%
I’ll admit, the only experience I have with Chibi-Robo is watching my older cousins play the original. That said, I do think he’s adorable, and definetly recognizable enough that he should be included in Smash. Plus, like I said, the little buddy’s got moveset for days. Not one of my most wanted picks, but I would still be pleased to see him.

Also, for discussion’s sake: could anyone see him be added, but as a secret fighter, like Bowser Jr. and Duck Hunt in Smash 4?

Predictions:
Shovel Knight: 26.7%

Noms:
Henry Fleming x5

 

[zipzapsparkle]

Chibi Robo

Chance 25%
Want 50%

I’m not feeling confident about him as a newcomer because his last game was a miss but he’s still relevant so he might score but he’ll most likely be an assist trophy I think.

Cranky x3
Kamek x2

 

[Aetheri]

Chibi-Robo
Chance: 5%
Honestly Chibi Robo's chances aren't that great imo...Ziplash bombed and Nintendo basically said they'd can the series if it didn't do well...of course that may or may not actually play a part in Sakurai's decisions for playable fighters but I feel he's very much a low priority character...
Which is a shame, it's a beloved series and Nintendo kept trying to do things with it that didn't resonate with the fans...

Want: 5%
Personally don't really care for the character or his series...

----

Nominations:
Shovel Knight-21.15%

----

Dark Samus x5

 

[Depressed Gengar]

Chibi-Robo Chance: 5%
Last I checked, Nintendo said that if Zip Lash bombed, that's it for his series, and, well, that's basically what happened. Not to mention Zip Lash was probably way to early to get Sakurai's attention now.

Honestly, I think that if Chibi-Robo doesn't get in now, he's never going to get in.

Want: 50%
Whatever.

Shovel Knight Predictions: 30%

Nominations: Dr. Eggman X5

 

[Sid-cada]

Chibi-Robo

Chance - 5% - While he might get in due to uniqueness or something like that, as of right now I don't think Chibi has a chance. Sadly, without a future due to Zip-Lash's poor reception it's doomed to failure.

Want - 70% - I feel bad for the guy and I think he has some potential.


Predictions

Shovel Knight - 32.45% - Should do well for an indie.


Nominaitons

Anna X5

 

[NeonBurrito]

Also, for discussion’s sake: could anyone see him be added, but as a secret fighter, like Bowser Jr. and Duck Hunt in Smash 4?

If he is added, that's probably how he will be. Can't really see him bringing a ton of hype with a pre-release trailer.

 

[Opossum]

Chibi-Robo
Chance: 1%
Even as someone who likes the character, people are sorely overestimating him. This isn't even a one-off commercial failure like Code Name: S.T.E.A.M. or Ever Oasis. This is a character from a niche series wherein there have been just as many, if not more, critical failures than successes, and with basically every game not earning much money.

His franchise is dead, despite having multiple chances to live...and all because Skip, Ltd. didn't recapture the charm of the first entry.

Want: 90%
...That being said. I love the guy. Plus he's super fun in SSF2.

Predicting a 24% for Shovel Knight because some people will go "lol indie" as if it means anything
Nominating Henry Fleming x5

 

[Kotor]

Chibi-Robo

Chance: 5%
A franchise like Fire Emblem that needed a game to sell well to keep the series alive. Zip Lash was there, but it didn't sell gangbusters. It most likely didn't even meet sales expectation. I'm pretty sure the amiibo add-on was there just so the game could sell for $40. The little guy has a better shot of becoming an Assist Trophy.

Want: 5%
It's just there. Zip Lash never won me over.

Nominations
Callie and Marie x5

 

[Quetzal77]

Chibi Robo
Chance: 10%
I think he may be more AT material at this point, but you never know with Sakurai.

Want: 60%
Not gonna lie, it's this high purely because of the memes.

Prediction for Shovel Knight: 42%
Nominations: Pyra/Mythra (without Rex), Impa x4

 

[Graizen]

Chibi Robo
Chances: 50%
Want: 50%

Another case of "Sakurai decides". I think Chibi Robo is a lovable character with great potential! I hope he gets a chance!

Nomination: Agumon x5

 

[chemo]

Chibi-Robo

Chance: 10%

Nintendo said that the Chibi-Robo series would be put down if Zip-Lash bombed, which is exactly what happened, and I don't think the famous tweet they made increases the chances of the series being revived by much. However, I don't think it's absolutely impossible for him to become a Smash fighter because you'd never know with Sakurai.

Want: 70%

Despite myself having not much connection with the series outside of Zip-Lash (and I'm probably one out of 7 people who liked that game), I really like the character as a whole and I think he would make a fun, unique character for Smash.

Predictions:

Shovel Knight
Chance: 20%
Want: 45%

Nomination:

Doomguy x5

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Olimar-Sized Robot

Chance: 15%
Want: 0%

Another first party character who is known only to these boards and the three other people who've played the game. There is nothing unique about him other than the fact that he's small (wait, isn't size a reason to deconfirm a character, or is that only when they're too big?) and he can use a cord as a whip...when Sm4sh got rid of all of the tether-only recoveries, and with a bunch of whip users who, while third party, are much more well known outside of this community (Ivy, Simon Belmont). So in essence, he's really got nothing special. His series is also on the ropes with few caring much, and we've also got characters from dead series as well, and look how well Lucas got a Mother revival going. During Sm4sh speculation, he looked like in good shape, but I think he depends a lot on the ballot now, and as unknown as he is to the general public...

We've already got one robot character in the game, and from the time it was confirmed I've been rolling my eyes. There is nothing that makes me even somewhat warm up to the character since it literally isn't a character, it's a piece of hardware - all of ROB's characterization came from the story mode. At least the chibi guy has some personality it could build from a few games outside of Smash, but still...

In essence, there are so many characters out there I'd rather have than this little thing. There are so many characters better representative of Nintendo than this thing.

Prediction for Shovel Knight: 24.7%
Nom: anything from Skyrim x5

 

[KingofPhantoms]

Abstaining from Chibi-Robo chance.

Want: 20%

Fairly cute looking character but I also don't really know what he can do. While I wouldn't reject the character, I wouldn't be excited to see the character in Smash, either.

Shovel Knight Prediction: 31%

Nominations: Tetra x5

 

[Skyblade12]

Chibi-Robo
Chance: 5%
Sorry, little guy. You're cute and adorable, but your games didn't sell well, your last chance was a bust, and you are now only used as a sacrifice to burn in order to summon Directs.
If he's going to be anything, I think it would be an AT.
Want: 10%
He's cute. I actually enjoyed Zip Lash. I wouldn't mind him. But there are a bunch of other characters who should get in first.

 

[Starcutter]

Chibi-Robo: 45%

I'm only rating this high because of a gut feeling Nintendo might try to bring Chibi-Robo for the sole purpose of MARKETING, maybe with re releasing Chibi-Robo on switch with long-rumored Gamecube virtual console.

I don't think that's likely, but I just can't shake the feeling.

Want: 55%

Shovel Knight prediction: 34.6%

Isabelle x5

 

[VexTheHex]

Chibi-Robo
Chance - 10%
Newest game failed and not that popular of a character. Maybe gets in as AT?
Want - 20%
Kind of cute, kind of really bland.

 

[Deleted member]

Chibi Robo

Chance: 15%
Ballot + recency vs. poor sales/critical reception and a history of being ignored for said reasons.

Want: 50%
He'd actually be kind of cool.

Shovel Knight Prediction: 23.33%

Nominations: Tingle x5

 

[ZealousGamer]

Chibi Robo

Chance 30%: Not impossible but no likely.

Want 45%: Very meh character.

Nomination:
Jibanyan 3x
Skull Kid 2x

 

[Tew]

Chibi Robo Chances:
28%
Sure the series isn't the most well known and close to dead if not already, but that hasn't stopped many other characters. I think he actually has decent chances. There aren't too many series and franchises with a slight chance left. And overall there aren't too many characters (I don't think they want too many chas from TloZ, Mario, Pkmn and Fire Emblem in Smash compared to all the other series. Would be weird to have like 15-20 Mario/TloZ... Chas each but only 1-3 for other series) Nintendo also hasn't forgotten him and I could see him being a character with quite a few requests and a possible unique moveset. Furthermore him appearing in Smash could revive the series and maybe get a few more sales for Zip Lash.

Chibi Robo Want:
ABSTAIN (haven't played a single Chibi Robo game)


Shovel Knight Predict:
34,29%

Nominations:
5x Fjorm

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Chibi-Robo:
Chance: 15% - He's very niche and though uniqueness is on his side, he's not really recognizable especially with how poorly Zip Lash did. Why market a character who will likely never get another game?
Want: 50% - I love him in SSF2 but I don't need him in official Smash.

Prediction: Shovel Knight
Chance: 36.72%
Want: 89.23%

Nominations:
Sora x5

 

[Morbi]

Chibi Robo, I always forget that this little guy exists.

Chance: 75%

People are severely underestimating him. He is actually one of the only potential characters to represent a new series that is moderately worth representing and, while obscure, he is mainstream enough to beat out the likes of many other similar franchises. The game release schedule adds up and there is plenty they could do with his move-set.

Want: 10%

Eh. I am not that into him, hopefully he is fun, however.

 

[PK_Wonder]

16% Chibi's Chances aren't the most chibi of everyone we have rated, but on paper it seems like an uphill battle. He has some poorly/mediocrely received games and an unknown future challenging his one cult classic and a small, but admiring fanbase. One positive he has for him is that he is popular for his character and design in general, in spite of his lack of reception on his games. He also received an amiibo and some social media presence, which is unfortunately more than can he said for a lot of fan favorites like Isaac and Andy. I don't think he's as dead as was implied. I think he will get one more chance at some point with a game more in line with the original's gameplay.

Want 40%
He's fine. I think he could be very original amd charming, but I have at least a dozen other priority characters.

Predict SK: 32%

Nom: Mach Rider x3, Starfy x2

 

[Kitty-chan]

Chibi Robo

Chance: 10%
Poor little guys franchise was utterly destroyed with the failure known as Zip Lash nya. I think he could have a small chance, simply outta popularity nya. Part of me wishes that Nintendo would make him playable just to preserve his character nyaaa.

Want: 75%
He's nyadorable and has potential nya, zero issues nya. Just gonya imagine Zip Lash never happened nyaaa

Nyomination
Concept; No Cuts: x5

 

[Fenriraga]

Small-Andro

Chance: 15%

Chibi is in a weird spot. Technically he's more relevant today than most Nintendo characters, but I think this is one of the rare times when relevancy isn't nearly enough to save someone. Like it or not, we're probably not going to see Chibi in the spotlight again. His games just haven't produced good enough numbers, and he really just doesn't have the notariety needed to make it into Smash. That said, he still has a chance. Just a slim one.

However, I think him being an assist is almost guaranteed. I'm honestly surprised he isn't already.

Want: 85%
Chibi and I have a weird history, as I'm sure he does with many. First game? Bloody fantastic. Probably in my top 10 games of all time, or at least top 20. But everything after that just really did not do it for me even remotely. As time went on the series kinda lost sight of what made it so good, so I fell out. I tried my darndest to like Zip Lash since it was his last chance, but I couldn't.

But he still holds a special place in my heart and I would love to see him. At least as a last hoorah before his battery truely runs dry.

Nominate Geno x5

 

[jamesster445]

Chibi Robo

Chance- 25%
Want- 50%

Nominations- Ryu Hayabusa x5

 

[Megaban]

CHIBI ROBO
Chance -12%
Unlikely, unless Sakurai suddenly notices him. But not impossible, at least he had a trophy, so you never know.

Want -65%
No personal sentiment or anything, but totally wouldn't mind and I do think new series rep would be cool. Plus he seems to have nice moveset potential, so.

Nomination: Lana x5

Prediction: Shovel Knight -41%.

 

[wildvine47]

Chibi-Robo

Chance: 55% - You know what, I'm actually feeling optimistic about this guy's chances. I'm going against the grain, sure, but with what we know about Smash Switch's development, this might well be Chibi's best shot to get into Smash yet. Let's look at Chibi's positives:

- Had not one, but TWO new games since Smash Wii U's roster decision period, both squarely in the sweet spot for Smash Switch's roster decision. We've talked about the timing issue with other characters, but few got as lucky with it as this lil guy did. Both Photo Finder and Zip Lash would have been well-known to Sakurai when deciding on this game's roster.

- He's from an established franchise that's been running since the Gamecube. Chibi's not a one-off fluke like Codename STEAM or Drill Dozer. Even if it's been by the skin of his teeth, Chibi's been able to carry a series on his tiny, tiny shoulders.

- Sales don't factor in to Sakurai's roster decisions. Xenoblade and Punch-Out Wii weren't massive sales successes, Pikmin's never been a blockbuster either, and Bayonetta's series was dead in the water before Nintendo bailed them out. They still all got characters. Zip Lash may have not been the success the development team was looking for, but that's not really a factor here.

- He's got moveset/gimmick potential coming out the wazoo. Imagine the things Sakurai could do with a character like this. A character with a battery meter that you have to recharge periodically via Down-B, which would plug your cord into the ground. If you're at full charge, you're faster and stronger. As your charge drops, so does your speed and strength. That kind of gimmick sounds like exactly the kind of thing Sakurai would go in for, given the chance.

- Other assorted things, like the amiibo, Zip Lash proving Chibi's 2D capabilities, the series developers for Chibi wanting him in Smash, Sakurai having played the game, and more.

I really do think that if Chibi was ever to get into Smash, this would be the time.

Want: 75% - I've never played a Chibi-Robo game outside of Zip Lash, which I never finished, but I hate to see a franchise die like that. I bought Zip Lash to do my part to try and save the series, and while it may not have been enough to save him, Chibi getting into Smash Switch may be the last chance to immortalize the little guy before he shuts down for good. He may not be my most wanted, but if nothing else I don't want him gone forever. C'mon Chibi-Robo! Give it one last push!

Predictions

Shovel Knight: 37.22% - Yeah, he's going to be horrendously overrated tomorrow due to his game's popularity. Yes he's the most likely indie rep, but indies are still third parties, and there's a hell of a lot of bigger fish to fry before we get down to Shovel Knight's level. If Sakurai goes out of his way to pick an indie even, he's got heavy competition from Shantae in that regard. Both or neither, I'd say.

Nominations

Dark Matter Blade x 5

 

[AvionFinch]

Smol Robut

Chance: 15%

Poor lil guy, his series just hasn't performed that well, which isn't helped by the fact that they kinda seemed to slap him on weird spin off games as apposed to trying for the style of his first game. Outside of some kind of planned revival of his franchise (one that would have needed to be in the works when this game's roster was finalized) I don't see him happening.

Want: 70%

I've never played his games (besides messing with the photo finder demo for a bit) but I still root for the little guy. His design is so darn endearing, and of course, unrepresented IP's getting a character is always nice.

Shovel Knight Prediction: 39% chance / 46% want

Nominate: Elma x5

 

[CrusherMania1592]

Chances: 20%

Things aren't looking good for him plus he haven't been very demanding lately. Would be nice if Sakurai puts him in as a retro/WTF character in some ways


Want: 82%

I want him in because of the unique potential of his movepool

Predictions:

Shovel Knight 57%


Nominations:

Zeraora x3
Gengar x2