Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Al-kīmiyā']

Snake want: 1%

I don't think he fits in Smash thematically.

Nominations:
Masked Link x5

 

[Icedragonadam]

Snake

Chance: 13%

Snake to me is the least likely cut Vet to return at all, yes even Pichu has a better chance. Mainly because of Konami's antics. lately.

Want: 75%

I'd welcome him back of course!

Ice Climbers Prediction: 96.78%

Nominations

Lucas x5

 

[Yomi's Biggest Fan]

Snake

Chance: 10%

Metal Gear became a joke since Kojima left, Konami being Konami, and Snake had been absent for while. Only time will tell.

Want: 80%

Give me Snake so I can blast people with an RPG again.

Prediction for Ice Climbers

Chance: 96%

Want: 95%

Nominations: Takamaru x5

 

[Crap-Zapper]

Why are people predicting Wolf's chances? It's Ice Climbers tomorrow guys??

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Snake?
Snake!
SNAAAAAAKE!!

Chance: 3%
Want: 5%

He was in Brawl, so he's got veteranship going for him. Kojima is also BFF with Sakurai. And that's about all that gives him a chance of being in.

Unfortunately for him, ZSS pretty well stole his final smash, and Kojima left Konami (for a certain definition of 'left'). Kojima really has no rights to Snake anymore, and - from what I've heard - Konami is really inept at making Snake work. I haven't heard anything positive at all about the new Metal Gear game.

I can't really see him getting higher priority than any other 3rd parties from major developers with all of that.

As for me, I've never really been big on 3rd parties, with the exception of Sonic. Snake did seem a bit out-of-place in Brawl, and it'd be even worse since they went back to more cartoony graphics in SSB4.

I guess it's better for Sakurai not to have to put in a character that used to be his buddy's before they ousted him. Then again, Kojima's having fun making Norman Reedus eat babies or whatever that game of his is about...

Prediction for ICs: 85%
Nomination: Concept - Skyrim representation x5 ('representation' being anything from playable character to just a trophy)
(I really like doing concepts. Only so much we can all talk about how much we want characters to be added, and see how wrong we all are, but I'm interested in the game mechanics as well.)

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Solid Snake:
Chance: 8.5% - His veteran status is the only reason I'm ranking him this high. Fan demand for him is great, yes, but due to Kojima and Konami's relationship, I really don't see him getting in.
Want: 85% - I really want him back. Snake was a Brawl favorite and I love Metal Gear.

Predictions: Ice Climbers
Chance: 95.67%
Want: 89.54%

Nominations:
Sora x5

 

[PK_Wonder]

My day 1 Arcade Bunny x5 noms didnt seem to get counted.

Snake:
Chances, 13%
Fan demand gives him a better chance than most third party characters, but Konami/Kojima politics will directly hinder him. I actually think he has a similar chance to his Konami brothers Simon and Bomber.

Want, 25%
I am a huge Metal Gear fan, but he's too low of a priority for me for me to actively campaign for his inclusion.

Noms:
Excitebiker x5

 

[Deleted member]

Solid Snake

Chance: D (25%)

I thought about giving him a 0% but three things keeps me from doing so,

First, like NonSpecificGuy said, Snake's exclusion is a mystery. Since the roster was decided by 2012, that means that any possible exclusion could not have been related to the turmoil that happened later on during 2014 and 2015 when the DLC characters were decided. There's no explanation, not even recency since Metal Gear Solid V was the last major release from Konami outside PES (Super Bomberman R is more of a mid-tier game).

Secondly, I believe that Nintendo will go for a Konami character. Konami hosts several iconic franchises like Metal Gear, Castlevania, and Bomberman. Third-parties are a huge deal and there is no way the game goes without another third-party, especially if this is a new game and not a port. Konami will want a character in Smash because it will serve as great PR. In fact, there's the possibility that we get two Konami characters since Capcom and Sega got two in 3DS & Wii U.

Third, he's a beloved Brawl veteran and that means a lot of people will want to see him return. It goes without saying that he's the most wanted third-party. He has a lot going for him.

But he's not higher up because of one thing, the Kojima controversy. With all of the nasty backstabbing the company did to him, including blocking him from taking an award for Metal Gear Solid V, there is deep resentment from within Konami's headquarter and unfortunately that extends to Metal Gear. Last time I checked, Snake didn't show up at all in Metal Gear Survive. The franchise's future is uncertain and I don't believe in the old saying that time heals all wounds. This means there's a real possibility that Konami may reject Snake simply out of spite to Kojima if Sakurai brings up the topic. That is, if they bring it up at all and not decide on an option less controversial to Konami just because he does not want to get involved into the turmoil.

That said, there's still a shot, just not a large one.

Want: B (75%)

Yes please! Snake was awesome to play with in Brawl and I missed him last game.

x5 Bomberman

 

[Parallel_Falchion]

Snake
Chance: 20%
Fan demand and a veteran, but also Konami. He got in originally as a favor to Kojima, but Kojima isn't with Konami or Metal Gear anymore. It's a weird situation.

Want: 80%
I've never played a Metal Gear game, but Snake is a veteran with a cool and unique moveset and it would be a shame to never see that return.

 

[Nimbostratus]

Solid Snake
Chance- 14%
Having the status of a popular veteran certainly helps. The Konami situation is bad, but it's also bizarre enough that I could see anything happening, so I'll give him a chance.

Want- 70%
I was not that upset when it became clear he wasn't going to be in last time around, but now that's he's gone... I guess I kind of miss him. It would be a nice homecoming for the poor guy having rough times. I never thought he fit in, but we have Bayonetta now, so that's a lost cause regardless.

Ice Climbers Predictions- 89%

Nominations:
Andy x3
Dillon x2

 

[Opossum]

Snake time!

Gonna put his odds at 10%
I don't think it'd be impossible, but I see it as unlikely. We don't know exactly WHY he was dropped, since third party characters are a sort of Pandora's Box.

Want: 100%
Love me some Snake.

Nominating Celica x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

**** I messed up the schedule it’s ICs tomorrow. Sorry for any inconvenience.

 

[Icedragonadam]

Uhh there's some mistakes in the nomination list. Mainly characters being added twice.

 

[Crap-Zapper]

Also since I never gave any nominations;

5 x Doshin the Giant.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Uhh there's some mistakes in the nomination list. Mainly characters being added twice.

Will be fixed tomorrow, sorry for any inconvenience.

 

[KingofPhantoms]

SNAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAKE!

Chance: 40%

I really want to say that it could go either way, because as others have already pointed out, we don't actually know the exact reason why Snake was cut in the first place. But because of that very same problem, it's hard to say how much of a shot he has at returning. Nonetheless, I'm keeping my score for him at a little below half. The issue with third parties is that both companies involved need to say "yes" to the character. It's likely that legal disputes of some kind were involved or that at least one party no longer wanted him on the roster, but in either case, we still can't determine the exact reason that led to the cut. We also don't know how much the companies involved might want to have Snake return to Smash someday, if at all.

Want: 100%

Along with the Ice Climbers, this was the cut from Brawl that I was most disappointed with, that didn't return later as DLC. If Snake returning truly is possible, then please bring him back.

Ice Climbers prediction: 87%

Nominations: Shovel Knight x5

 

[FrozenRoy]

CodeBlue_ Keep up the good work! I love stat stuff like this!

Chances: 5%

Alas, poor Snake, we knew him well. He was one of the best newcomers in Brawl, with a fun and unique moveset, a style unlike most characters and was a great third party presence. But it was always going to be hard for him to continue forward as a 3rd party who primarily appeared on other consoles. I feel like Kojima leaving Konami was his kiss of death, as Kojima pushing hard for Snake was a good part of what got him into Brawl, and Konami is hardly a company well known for their good treatment of franchises and characters as of late. Maybe if this was a Smash pachinko machine?

Without Kojima I just don't see Snake coming back even though I want him to. I give him a 5% chance because he DID appear in a Smash game and is popular, so if the third party stars aligned, he would be accepted back in a heartbeat, but I find it unlikely Konami will offer the stick.

Want: 100%

Snake would be such a surprise that it instantly boosts the want from the 80% or so range through the roof, because I would just be so hype and excited for him to make a sudden re-appearance! Metal Gear is a rather unique series and Snake was a rather unique Smash character, and it would perhaps even signal Konami ceasing to be quite as terrible, and open the door for even more third parties and returning characters and whatnot. Really want him back in general.

Nominations:

Travis Touchdown x4
Marx x1

Prediction: Ice Climbers - 68%

 

[NintenRob]

Snake
Chance: 15%
He's an oddity, Konami is in a bit oddity. While I think they'd let a character in one of their characters like Bomberman or Simon, it's hard to say if they'll let Snake in specifically after that Kojima fiasco. And it's hard to say if Sakurai would even want him back.
Want: 80%
Snake was fun, I have no issue with him returning.

Nominate Skull Kid x5

Prediction Ice Climbers 82%

 

[Sabrewulf238]

Snake chance - 20%

He was in Brawl, which means Sakurai may have a vested interest in trying to get him again. The question is whether Konami would be willing to work with him when the time comes. I could see it being something Sakurai might try to make happen though.

Snake want - 60%

I won't lose any sleep if he doesn't come back, but I'd like to see him....since he's a unique character and plenty of people want him.

Ice Climbers chance prediction: 95%

Noms:
Phoenix Wright x5

 

[TheDukeofDorks]

Snake

Chance: 33%

I spent the last 3 minutes typing different numbers down and this still doesn't feel quite right. There's a whole mess of politics regarding Snake's current situation, and I have no idea which issues would affect his inclusion in Smash. Kojima's relationship with Konami? The poor state the Metal Gear series is in? Competition with other Konami characters? Konami sucking in general? I have no idea!

As a veteran I feel like he has a higher chance than most, but even then that's just a gut feeling

Want: 60%

I've never played a Metal Gear game, and I wasn't terribly fond of Snake's playstyle, so I'm not exactly clamouring for his return. But I also have no reasons to dislike him, and I'll admit the roster has felt incomplete without his playstyle.

Prediction for Ice Climbers: 95%

Why not?

Nominating Bomberman x5

 

[Erureido]

Snake

Chance: 10%

Without a doubt a very popular character with a strong fanbase behind his back to support him. Konami, however, remains his biggest issue, especially for how the company treated him in recent times.

Want: 50%

He was a cool character in Brawl and one of my mains in my experience playing Project M, but I'm largely indifferent to his return. If he comes back, sweet. If he doesn't, I won't be bothered that much.

Predictions:

Ice Climbers (Ice Climber): 91.36%

I can see a lot more optimism for them now that the new Smash is being developed solely on a console that is strong enough to support them without causing major technical difficulties.

Nominations:

Professor Layton (Professor Layton): x5

 

[CodeBlue_]

I'm not Phantom.

But I'd love to see one of these each day.

Dunno how possible that is though.

Could you do one for K.Rool's results yesterday?

What's good Swamp, glad to see you here (I don't know if you recognize me from the Discord lol)! These actually take ~30-50 minutes to do (depending on the number of participants), so it's feasible for me to do them during my breaks. Since K.Rool probably has less entries than most future days (people like me forgot RTC along with Smash Speculation in general were a thing), I'll post his results along with Snake tomorrow. I could try to binge these and do them every three days to a week too in one post if I'm less available on some days.

@Zero Soul and @Aussie the Shinobi both guessed 18 as the closest guesses. You both get 5 extra nominations today.

Wait the "predictions" people do for the next day are guessing the mean chances for that character? Interesting

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

I don't really understand why people are using 50% for indifference. If one doesn't care about a character, isn't that 0% want?

 

[Swamp Sensei]

I don't really understand why people are using 50% for indifference. If one doesn't care about a character, isn't that 0% want?

A person's score is based on their own individual standards.

Maybe someone views indifference as 50, maybe someone views it as 0%.

It's all relative.

 

[CodeBlue_]

I don't really understand why people are using 50% for indifference. If one doesn't care about a character, isn't that 0% want?

I personally put 0% as "I really don't like this character and would be very disappointed if they were in Smash" but I think a lot of people do use 0% as a "meh" metric. 50% generally feels like you could go either way.

Like swamp said, it's really based on how you view the word "want". I think the former would make this category more interesting (0 as a way of protesting against the character), but it might be in bad spirit to do so.

 

[Opossum]

I don't really understand why people are using 50% for indifference. If one doesn't care about a character, isn't that 0% want?

Kinda going off what Swamp said, but because negative scores aren't allowed and there will inevitably be characters I outright don't want (to the point I'd actually be kind of miffed if they got in, that kind of thing), I put 50% as indifference, personally. Anything above or below that just showcases the degree to which I want or don't want them.

But yeah, different for everyone, really.


Edit: CodeBlue said what I did but better.

 

[DaUsername]

Snake?
Snake?!
Oh wait someone already made this joke
Chance: 7.5%
His chances have pretty much been kilked by that whole "Kojima getting fired from Konami" thing.
Want: 100%
Bing back all the vets.

Ice Climbers prediction: 99%
Noms: Crash Bandicoot x5

I don't really understand why people are using 50% for indifference. If one doesn't care about a character, isn't that 0% want?

I'd rather use 0% want for characters I actively dislike/think shouldn't be in Smash.
Not giving a want rating is also an option.

 

[ZealousGamer]

Snake

Chance: 5% Konami isn't likely to do the right thing for the Metal Gear franchise on the whole so, I doubt Snake will get in.

Want: 5% I'd rather Snake not return. Maybe someday when all characters that have made an appearance join in he can. However, I don't think Smash Switch is that game. I'd much rather if possible Snake join in a Playstation Allstars sequel should that happen. I think Snake is a legendary character but the Snake we know today helped build the Playstation brand. That is where I stand.

Nominations
Jibanyan 2x
Midna 2x
Skull Kid 1x

 

[Nonno Umby]

Solid Snake

Chance: 68%

He is a veteran, and a beloved one. He probably did extremely well on the ballot, and if that ballot can be used for Ridley and K.K.R. I don't see why it shouldn't for Snake.
Plus, while Konami is a strange company, Nintendo as worked with them in recent times, most notably with Super Bomberman R and Momotaro Dendetsu 2017. And I think it is quite likely that they will try to add Bombermam, so while they are negotiation they can pull out Snake too.
Some say "Sakurai wouldn't disrespect Kojima by adding Snake without him", but
1) Sonic was considered for Melee when Yuji Naka asked Sakurai to add him, but it was too late (https://sourcegaming.info/2016/03/25/misinfo/). As we know Sonic was in both Brawl and For, but Naka left SEGA back in 2006. Having the original creator (and the one who requested it) leaving the company hasn't stop Sakurai before.
2) Kojima doesn't hate Metal Gear. He still retweets fan arts and cosplayers of Snake, Big Boss, Ocelot and so on. He even said back in 2014 (when is position inside Konami was starting to crumble) that he would have liked to have Snake in Smash For (http://www.escapistmagazine.com/new...y-to-Return-in-Super-Smash-Bros-4-Says-Kojima). I don't see how adding Snake back can be disrespectful, especially when there is already a moveset approved by him.


Want: 100%

Bring him back and the roster is completed for me. He was my main in Brawl and still is one of my favourite characters in videogaming.

Nomination: 5x Lucina

 

[CodeBlue_]

♪Secret Agent Man, Secret Agent Man! ♪

!

Solid Snake:

Chance: 30%

Pachinko machines exist...and Japan makes payouts for video games tournaments illegal gambling?

Yeah who knows, Sakurai would love to add Snake as much as pretty much 90% of this site, but it depends on Konami.

Want: 100%

Dude I really didn't appreciate how cool Snake was a character until years after he was gone. I really would love a revamped style because he brings a really nice take to the zoning fighter. plus he's hot

Prediction for Ice Climbers:

Chance: 88%

Want: 81.5%

--------

Nomination: x2 Lip; x3 Lyndis (Banjo-Kazooie if I can't vote on her more than once)

 

[PhilosophicAnimal]

Hmm...I never did join in on this for Smash 4, so I think I'll give this a shot.

Snake

Chance: 25%

I don't hold much faith in Konami to do anything remotely correct, but I will say that they did pretty ok with Bomberman R, so I suppose I have to give them a LITTLE faith. Plus, I just get this feeling that, because Snake was left out of 4, there's an oddly higher chance of him returning for Switch. Still, that's only enough for me to give him more than 5%.

Want: 0%

Never liked him in all honesty, nor do I think he fits in Smash.

Nominations: Marx (Kirby Super Star) X5

Prediction

Ice Climbers (Ice Climber)

Chance: 96.8%

Want: 99%

I think most will agree that they're practically guaranteed, given they're were only excluded before thanks to the 3DS. And who doesn't want them in? They're too unique to hate.

 

[Deleted member]

Chance: 50%
I honestly don't know at this point. Could go either way.

Want: 100%
I haven't played a Metal Gear game yet but Snake was an awesome character in Brawl. He had a cool moveset, amazing dialogue and he added a lot of diversity to the roster from a visual standpoint. By far my most wanted cut veteran.

Nominations Decidueye X5

Ice Climbers prediction: 95%

 

[Strider_Bond00J]

SNAAAAAAAKE!!!

Chance: 50%
Konami is pretty unpredictable at this point - They come out with a pretty decent Bomberman game, but then remind everyone why they're so hated because how they've dragged the Metal Gear name down with how they poorly treated Kojima during MGSV's development and then Metal Gear Survive comes along, and the memories of the Pachinko machine...

His absence is quite notable - being the only third-party who just completely vanished from the series with little explanation as to why, probably related to how poorly received their actions were during the 2014-2016 era that Smash 4 lived though. Either way, I think Snake's chances are middling - it depends on if they want to pick up the ball again and maybe allow Snake to come back, or they'd push someone else from their library, Bomberman, Simon or even Venom Snake.

Want: 100%.
He's what got me started in the Metal Gear series and a legend for games and Smash Bros. I would love to see him come back.

Ice Climbers Prediction: 82%

Nominations: Isaac (Golden Sun) X4
Undertale content X1

 

[Fenriraga]

Snek.

Chances: 5%
Snake's position is weeeeird, particularly because of Sakurai and Kojima's relationship. I feel like Nintendo would literally have to twist his arm to get him to put a Konami rep in, let alone Snake. (Please keep in mind this is just mostly baseless speculation on my end, I don't claim to know Sakurai's opinion on Konami.) Plus with how much more colorful and cartoony Smash 4 was compared to Brawl, and the high chance that Switch will keep that style for the most part, I just can't see him fitting well. Especially with his design in 5, and with such a big named expensive actor the current voice of him.

Want: 50%

I have no personal attatchment to Metal Gear (yet) so I don't have any connection with Snake. I know it would make a lot of people happy though, and I wouldn't mind seeing him.

 

[PushDustIn]

Snake:

Chance: 20%

I don't think Snake has much of a chance of returning. Between Konami and Kojima's bad blood (and Sakurai being good friends with Kojima), Snake having to be redesigned to use heavy weapons (and the ratings issue with weapons), and Snake requiring consent from the other creators...he is a minefield to get into Smash. We are lucky we got him in Brawl, and we will be luckier to see him again. Sakurai has not commented at all on Snake's lack of appearance-- possibly the only character we don't have an explanation for. It's a mystery why he was cut. Perhaps Sakurai wanted him to be a really special guest character and only intended him to appear once. No one knows.

Want: 80%

I miss Snake. He had a lot of charm, and his moveset was super unique. I hope he comes back.

 

[Runic_SSB]

Snake

Chance: 5%
He only got in because Kojima is bros with Sakurai. Now that he's gone, there's no chance. Though, there's still a chance for Mo-Cap Norman Reedus with Snake's moveset.

Want: 70%
To be honest, I just want him back so Raiden will have a chance.

Ice Climbers: 10%
Oh god no we're finally free of this cancer please don't bring them back.

Nominate
Sora x2
Travis Touchdown x3

 

[Deleted member]

Oh god no we're finally free of this cancer

>compares a Smash character to a deadly disease that killed millions of people

 

[andimidna]

Who had the closest prediction for Ridley?

Ngl, idk too much about the Konami situation. From what I’ve heard, they aren’t making their own games as much? I get the whole Kojima-Sakurai thing, but the desire for him goes past that since fans loved his implementation. I wonder if he was high on the Smash Ballot, or if people focused on newcomers. Bomberman has been doing things, owned by Hudson and Konami iirc. If he was expendable enough to dump once, he can easily be dumped twice. The most unique character ever cut along with Poke Trainer pokes smh
Chance: 10%
Want: 70%
He was fun and well-liked
ICs prediction: 97%
It’s just gonna take a few people rounding down to curve this a few percents below 99-100 which will def me the mode
Nominating x4 Midna x1 Anna

 

[PsychoJosh]

Snake
Chance: 40%
I think that Nintendo simply needs to ask Konami for Snake to come back. Kojima's blessing is nice to have, but it's not necessary for the purposes of acquiring this character. However they might still notify him out of respect for him.
Want: 70%
I think he adds interesting flavor and variety to the roster, and I know more than a few people who would be happy to have him back.

>compares a Smash character to a deadly disease that killed millions of people

Yes, congratulations, you got the joke.

 

[Megaban]

Here we go again... SNAKE

Chance - 8%
Yes. Low. Snake is in pretty bad position. Konami isn't in too friendly terms with Nintendo anymore, Kojima kinda begged Sakurai to add Snake, and being 3rd party that got cut in previous game sure doesn't help. Only reason this isn't like 1-2% is because he has fan support, so it's not IMPOSSIBLE, just quite unlikely.

Want -70%
He was such a cool addition... Maybe because I love projectile characters, but he was so fun to use back in Brawl (scrub I were, but whatever). Him coming back would be cool, as long as he doesn't lower certain other's 3rd party's chances.

Nominations -Lana x5. Duh.

Prediction - Ice Climbers 95%.