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WOAH. This certainly was one of the most polarized days to date. On both the chance and want side, Crash had so many high and low predictions. However, he did manage to nestle into both of our top tens... for now.
Smasher 101
was the closest so they get 5 extra noms
When combining all of Ike's votes together, he has a total of 51,555 votes, which does indeed beat out Lyn's vote count of 49,917. So, she isn't THE most popular, because that still goes to Ike. But she is a hyper-popular character for sure.
I'll post my write up eventually. There's a lot to say about Lyndis.
I actually think there's a chance for Lyn if she did well on the Ballot and if the FEH poll had any barring on deciding an FE newcomer.
Want: 70%
This may come as a surprise for some of you that read my posts but I would actually like Lyn on the roster. Not an overwhelming want of course given the state of FE in Smash but if there had to be an FE newcomer in this game I would want it to be her. FE7; like most of you guys was my first FE and Lyn in the character that resonates with me the most with her quick draw gimmick and her cool aesthetic. Would have her in a hundred times over Hector who I don't really like.
Prediction
Chance MY BOY! (aka Andy): 8% Celica: 28%
Want MY BOY! (once again lol): 52% Celica: 23%
Nominations
Masked Link X2
Concept: Decloned Ganondorf X2
Mewtwo X1
Chance: 25%
A pretty popular FE character nya, whether or nyot that means much compared to her lack of relevance I don't nyo nya. I wouldn't be surprised though if they decided to keep her a AT.
Want: 60%
I like her nya, and the number of FE characters in the game doesn't bother me a single bit nya. Though I only have her at 60% because I wanya see Celica or a ax/spear user some how nyappear in smash nya~
I think for the first time she has a real and solid chance to be playable. The results in the CYL poll are important and have proven Nintendo how popular she is.
Because of that popularity she got into Fire Emblem Warriors and she could also get into Smash
Want: 100 %
I want her more than any other FE character. I've always wanted her in Smash since Brawl and always will. Lyn is by far my favorite female character in FE
Lyn Chance: 5%
The first CYL for Heroes proved she's undeniably popular, but that was way too late to matter for base roster and even then that's only within her own franchise and not with how requested she is in Smash, so it probably wouldn't mean TOO much. Still, that's something to show she's still relevant, despite the people claiming that her game isn't recent means that she somehow isn't.
Want: 0%
Even ignoring the fact that I just want FE to stay on the sidelines this time, there's another character from the same franchise who could fill a similar role I'd much rather have.
I decided to do a bit of research into Lyn since I knew NOTHING about any Fire Emblem game outside Awakening and a tiny bit of Path of Radiance, so bear with as this is what I've managed to find on this Fire Emblem Fan Favourite.
Lyn Chance: 20% Lyndis here has a few things actually going for her;
+ She's the most voted for character bar Ike(who is so popular even his less voted for version still outranks Marth, Robin and Corrin) in the latest poll for Fire Emblem Heroe's "Choose your Legends" as well as being the most popular female character in the entire franchise.
+ She's a playable character in Fire Emblem Warriors and notably the only character chosen from her entire game despite sharing the main character role of her game with Eliwood and Hector, with the latter being a very popular fan favourite.
+ She was considered important/popular enough at the time of Awakening to be included in the very first DLC pack alongside popular Smashers Ike and Marth
+ She already has a model in Smash as an Assist Trophy, and could pull a Little Mac
+ I refuse to believe as big a Fire Emblem fan as Sakurai didn't know at least Warriors was in the works.
+ Even a non Fire Emblem fan like myself knows of Lyn if only by name and looks. Something very few other FE characters can boast so she's already somewhat recognisable even outside the fanbase.
Unfortunately she also has some negatives;
- The Heroes "Choose your Legends poll" was a fairly recent event, and although Intelligent Systems knew she was popular they probably didn't expect her to be THE MOST POPULAR character in the entire series prior to this poll.
- She's not the main character of Warriors, and Chrom was actually used for some of the promotion rather than her.
- That Awakening DLC also added many other less known characters in as well as the three Smash Bros. stars and Lyn.
- Sakurai may believe she's perfectly functional as an Assist Trophy and needs no inclusion.
- Her game was from yesteryear and IS seem to mostly use NEW protagonists to promote their upcoming games.
And a bit of a neutral;
= Lyn could be used to promote the current Switch Fire Emblem Warriors and/or Heroes as she's a playable in both and clearly very popular...but so could Chrom if they're choosing a character from a previous game or Anna if they want a more reoccurring character. At the time of Roster decision there's a solid chance IS didn't know QUITE how popular Lyndis was.
Overall I really think she has a chance if Intelligent Systems decides to either promote their current spinoff titles OR decide they want a character in anyway even if they're not promoting any new games.
I'd hazard her only main competition would be Chrom who similarly has a model already in Smash, Mii outfits in the previous game, a slightly memetic status within Smash thanks to Robin/Lucina's reveal trailer(and Palutena's Guidance) and is in both the current spinoffs.
Want: 60%
That's an awfully big want score for someone I barely knew anything about prior to looking a little into her, but Lyn looks like she'll be one of the characters I'm most looking forward to playing on Fire Emblem Warriors when I finally get the game.
As I'm not really into Fire Emblem(just not my kind of game style, hence I'm glad Warriors is giving me a chance to get to know the cast), haven't played the Blazing Blade, and I feel like we had quite the slew of Fire Emblemers being added last game I'm finding it hard to give her above 60%, but I feel like she, Chrom and Anna are the only three characters I'd want to see implemented as fighters from older Fire Emblem games due to their large popularities and reoccuring usage in multiple games even if they are spinoffs.
That said, I guess I may eat those words tomorrow as I get to look into Celica whom as it so happens IS ALSO in Warriors and has had a remake of recent...with an Amiibo no less!
Predictions:
Celica: 15% (lots of anti Fire Emblem in the Smash community)
Andy: 23% (series is kind of in a coma)
Nominations: Impa X 5(aka my favourite Warriors character)
Side note: I feel I was a bit harsh to Chrom now looking back at my previous score.
I'd probably up his chance to match Lyn's(10% to 20%), and his want to about 53% since I actually don't mind him getting in now Robin is in.
Chance - 10% - While there are tons of Fire Emblem characters that crowd out, she's popular enough to avoid completely falling out of favor. That said, promotion typically wins out in these sort of franchise.
Want - 10% - Eh. To me it's Anna or bust for Fire Emblem.
Predictions
Celica - 18.54% - A bit more likely, but not that great.
Andy - 13.23% - Can we get a new game for this franchise please?
She is one of the more viable candidates unless they are going for FE Switch protagonist. Beyond her, the only competition is Chrom, realistically. Her popularity is definitely relevant and she has been around for awhile, even in Smash, plus female representation.
Want: 100%
Definitely one of the Fire Emblem characters I want. Not necessarily the top, or even second best; however, nevertheless, she is still there on my most wanted. I just wish they organized Fire Emblem a bit better.
Lyn
Chance: 8% - Her popularity is her sole saving grace. She's irrelevant to the franchise and was never particularly important in the first place. In this case, once an assist, always an assist. Want: 0% - Let's be done with Fire Emblem characters for now.
Prediction: Andy
Chance: 13.72%
Want: 39.67%
I honestly think we're more likely than not to get another Fire Emblem character. It will most likely be someone whose last major title was more recent such as who we're ranking tomorrow, and she is more likely to continue being an assist. However, she's still a pretty notable character, and as others have said she's proven to be the most popular Fire Emblem character not yet playable, by far. I wouldn't count her out completely.
Want: 60%
I am not against another Fire Emblem character. Obviously we don't really need someone this time, but the amount of characters it has just doesn't really bother me, and I like Lyn and I'm sure she'd be someone I'd enjoy playing as in Smash. If she were to make it in, I would not be bothered.
Celica prediction: 28.34%
Andy prediction: 10.23%
Correction.
When combining all of Ike's votes together, he has a total of 51,555 votes, which does indeed beat out Lyn's vote count of 49,917. So, she isn't THE most popular, because that still goes to Ike. But she is a hyper-popular character for sure.
I'll post my write up eventually. There's a lot to say about Lyndis.
Combining the votes for multiple entries doesn't make an accurate comparison. If Ike only had one entry in the poll, the final result would have definitely been lower than the sum of both combined. I find you really can't definitively call either one the most popular FE character due to the nature of the poll, this factor and others existing, but were they to look at this poll and choose one "winner" of it, it would be Lyn, not Ike.
Oh boy, another Fire Emblem character... I prepared tea specifically for this occasion, just to drink it while reading salty comments.
Chance: 10%
Basically her massive popularity is all she has going for her. Other then that, she's from an old Fire Emblem game and will likely be ingored in favor of either Alm or Celica (Probably the latter due to being more unique - from what I understand, that is) and I don't think she's going to get the Little Mac treatment.
Want: 25%
Let me get this out of the way first: I'm not opposed to Fire Emblem getting a newcomer. I like the franchise, I think a lot of the characters can be unique, and I don't care about reps at the slightest bit.
However, I haven't played any old Fire Emblem yet, I have a big backlog and very little free time, plus I haven't even finished Conquest yet.
I know that Lyn's sword style is very different from that of any of the current sword users in Smash, she's more similar to a samurai, and she also uses a bow, so I think she definetly fits the uniqueness criteria. That being said, I have another character in mind that fills the same niche, and that is Takamaru, who is one of my most wanted characters.
I don't know if I'll be upset if she got in over him, but I just don't see that happening. I think Takamaru is almost guaranteed, while Lyn's chances are very low, so I can't really picture that scenario and thus don't really know how I'd feel.
Decidueye x5
Gonna repeat what I said on Chrom's day, the "no more Fire Emblem characters" mentality is gonna lead to nothing but salt and disappointment. It's better to just grudgingly accept that.
Lyn: 65%
I think you guys are underrating her. While she's nowhere near a confirmed character, I believe she's the best bet on a new fire emblem character. I think in terms of smash we are in "FE Limbo". The last game came out on a "last gen" system and the next FE doesn't come out until (presumably) after Smash does. You might ask me "What does this have to do with Lyn?". It has EVERYTHING to do with her. Out of all the characters from Fire Emblem, she is the SINGLE MOST POPULAR LORD not represented in Smash. Even considering smash she's still more popular than most of them. This is backed up by the "Choose your legends" poll back before Fire Emblem Heroes came out. Speaking of Fire Emblem Heroes, Lyn is one of the 4 Heroes that got "Brave" editions, and the other three are already in Smash. Not only that, but Lyn was one of the few characters chosen to be in Fire Emblem Warriors that weren't from Awakening, Fates or Shadow Dragon.
The way I see it, we will probably get Lyn or nobody new from FE.
Want: 80% I haven't finished FE7 yet, but from what I've played it is really fun, and I like Lyn a lot. I hope they take advantage of the fact Lyn can use a bow in her moveset, and they integrate her critical hit animations into her moveset. I want her to be flashy.
Chance: 25%
Burning Blade was the first Fire Emblem game to be released internationally, and because of that, it marked a huge increase in sales and was many people's first introduction to Fire Emblem. Also, Lyn is the second most popular lord by an enormous margin, just barely losing out to Ike. The current oversaturation of Fire Emblem characters dampens her chances by a lot, but it doesn't completely eliminate them like a lot of other FE characters.
Want: 15%
On one hand, she actually deserves it. On the other hand, no more Fire Emblems.
We're All Lyndis Together
Chance: 6%
Y'all think we're gonna get a Fire Emblem character?
One that's not from Echoes or Fates?
Cute. And y'all giving Daisy low scores because of "competition". Priceless
We're All Lyndis Together
Chance: 6%
Y'all think we're gonna get a Fire Emblem character?
One that's not from Echoes or Fates?
Cute. And y'all giving Daisy low scores because of "competition". Priceless
Because it's a great selling game, Azura can bring tons to the table one doesn't have to be stingy about "one game getting two reps??", it's still the most recent one, Azura can bring tons to the table, features immensly popular characters, IS still likes to shill it as seen in Heroes year one and Azura can bring tons to the table
LYN
Chance -3%
Yes, very low. Sakurai seems to avoid putting old lords. And the fact she uses a sword doesn't help at all. More likely are more recent characters.
Want -20%
Don't see any need for her, another FE sword character and she doesn't rly have any unique characteristics, furthest you could go is like change the way she swings a sword.
Sakurai likely decided the roster before the FE poll came out. I don't think Sakurai will add a character from an older FE.
Want 60%
I love Lyn and think she would be a nice addition. I think with her being in the first internationally released FE and with her popularity she definitely deserves a spot on the roster. But I'll be ok if the selection of FE characters doesn't increase.
I think this is highest a Fire Emblem Character that hasn't recent main games can go without feeling that I'm push it too much... Lyndis is popular, and it's one few character that isn't from Marth/Chrom's World or Corrin's World that had appeared in spin offs; she is also has that special appeal because of her more eastern-like swordplay.
Want: 30%
Well... Usually for this kind of want score I would simply said I'm neutral with her... but I think I had developed a strange relationship with her because of many things... Oh well... Overall I wouldn't mind... a part of mind dislikes the idea, but other part sees her appeal in many ways, and kind of likes it.
There are better options in my opinion, but I wouldn't oppose the idea directly.
Chances: 35%
Despite her popularity I see us only getting characters from new games at this point and this not mentioning that the roster already has so many Fire Emblem characters I do not think they will dig back for another. Maybe she can replace Roy as the Elibe era rep maybe as DLC but I just do not see that either.
Want: 85%
Havent played her game but Lyn seems like a really good character and maybe even one of the better lords of the franchise. I would prefer other Fire Emblem characters I know better or think have more potential as a fighter but seeing her make it in would still be exciting to me as would pretty much any other Fire Emblem character.
...You guys really go for the throat when it comes to FE, don’t you?
*ahem*
Lyndis Chance: 30%
Going a bit on the higher side here. According to CYL, Lyn is the second most popular character in FE history, even outdoing the likes of Lucina and Roy. On top of that, she was recently put into Warriors at Intelligent Systems’ request, on account of how popular she is. Now, I know the roster was likely decided for the most part beforehand, but I could see Sakurai wanting to add Lyn after seeing how popular she is.
Want: 50%
I really like Lyn, but if we were getting a character from FE7, I would hope it was Hector. Would take her over Corrin any day, though.
Lyn Chances: 16%
Wow, we've been discussing Lyn in Smash for a long time. I remember the strong rivalry between her and Ike fans prior to Brawl and her AT confirmation. I remember some renewed faith and support that never left prior to Wii U/3DS. Now, with some clear evidence of her popularity thanks to polls and representation in Heroes and Warriors, her fans remain steadfast. All said, she has a ton of competition from her own series.... and her series itself has a lot of competition from OTHER series. Sakurai acknowledged that many outspoken people were feeling FE had oversaturation on the roster. Based on this we will probably get 1 (possibly 0, and less unlikely 2) new FE chracters.
Now if there was a new legacy/old school FE character from the pre-Fates/Heroes/Echoes/Warriors/FE Switch era, I do think it would be her.
Lyn Want: 20%
I like Lyn and her game of origin a TON, but in 2018 she's very low on the priority list for me, and 4th among FE characters.
- She’s been an AT for over a decade now but she’s still very popular.
Want: 0%
- I never liked her in FE7 nor in FEH and her inclusion in FE Warriors was more of Koei-Tecmo’s attempt at damage control. FE fatigue is still strong and there are more FE characters that could bring something new to the Smash table over Lyn.
Predictions
Celica: 13.5%
Andy: 10.5%
Nominations
Katrielle Layton (Professor Layton) x4
Black Shadow x1
NOTE: Every reason has a TL;DR, plus a big TL;DR at the end of the reasons for her chances. If you don't want to read all of this nonsense, feel free to read those.
It's Fire Emblem time, so I feel like I'm somewhat obliged to write a huge paper about it. This is the life I've subjected myself to, I guess. I doubt I'll have the ability to write so much about Celica tomorrow. To be honest, I wish FE16 had been shown off by now, because then I could just go "Every FE characters gets a 1%, because it's just going to be the FE16 lord," but that game is seemingly in development hell, so here we are.
Lyn, Lyn, Lyn. Lyndis, Lyndat. Lyndis-dis, Lyndat. I think Lyn has a WHOLE TON going against her. I also think Lyn has a WHOLE TON going for her. Let's talk about it.
REASONS AGAINST LYN:
Reason #1: Lack of Relevancy
As of right now, the big two things in terms of relevancy in the Fire Emblem franchise are Heroes and Echoes (although I feel like Echoes is falling out fast as hype for the seemingly vaporware FE16 continues to rise). This is why I considered Chrom to be an irrelevant character in terms of Smash Bros., and he came from a game from 2012.
Fire Emblem: The Blazing Blade (or FE7) released in 2003. As in, 15 years ago. Let that sink in for a bit. Fire Emblem characters in Smash tend to have a history of being put in the game to promote the newest game in the franchise.
Roy was put into Melee to promote the upcoming release of Fire Emblem: The Binding Blade (FE6).
Ike was put into Brawl to promote the recent releases of Fire Emblem: Path of Radiance and Fire Emblem: Radiant Dawn (FE9/FE10).
Lucina and Robin were put into Smash 4 to promote the recent success of Fire Emblem Awakening (FE13).
Corrin was added as Smash 4 DLC to promote the upcoming release of Fire Emblem Fates (FE14).
The only ever exception to this rule was Roy as Smash 4 DLC (and Marth, who is just the main mascot of the series), and that was only due to large amounts of clamoring from fans of Melee who wanted the return of "their boy." Even then, you could pretty easily make the argument that it could have been to promote the Fire Emblem Awakening DLC, which he, and many other characters from the series (Marth, Ike, Lyn, just to name a few, most lords in the series got something) appeared prominently in. The trend seems to say that the newest Fire Emblem character is going to be pulled from FE15 (the newest released game) or FE16 (the hot, new upcoming game).
You could say that Lyn represents Fire Emblem Heroes, and you could say that pretty aptly. A lot of her recent popularity has been redug up thanks to Heroes, and she does have a good number of character outfits in that game. She has 4 different versions of herself in Heroes, which makes her tied with Chrom and Lucina, and only having her beat out by Robin, who has 6. She's an extremely prominent character in the game as well, just because she's a top tier unit. Hell, the game even tells newcomers to pick her when choosing one of the four Brave Heroes (consisting of Lyn, Ike, Roy, and Lucina).
However, in terms of representing Heroes, I feel like there's better choices, who have closer ties to the game Heroes itself. Anna (who has a prominent role in Heroes and appears in every Fire Emblem game) and Veronica (very popular, main villain of Heroes, Heroes original character) would be better picks to represent the game.
TL;DR: Lyn is old and isn't from a new game. Every Fire Emblem character that has ever been in Smash was used to promote a new game, barring Marth and Smash 4 Roy. She could be used to represent Heroes, but Anna and Veronica would be more apt picks for that.
Reason #2: "ew yuck Fire Emblem" "ew yuck anime swords"
People are tired of Fire Emblem characters, and I'm sure Sakurai and Buddies are more than aware of this. Hell, even when developing Corrin for Smash 4 DLC, Sakurai had stated that he was aware that there were too many Fire Emblem characters. Because of all of the backlash that Corrin brought to Smash, I get a feeling that Smash 5 will not be getting a new Fire Emblem character, and if it does, it'll be someone more popular, more relevant, or with a unique (aka non-sword) moveset.
I cannot stress the point enough that people are tired of Fire Emblem characters in Super Smash Brothers. Need evidence? Just look at the responses for Chrom and some of the responses for Lyn. Hell, if you're visiting from the future, look at some of Celica's scores. Lyn is no exception to this. The fact that she is predominantly a sword user most certainly doesn't help her case much either. People don't want more anime sword characters. Lyn is a anime sword character. Even if she were to use the Sacaen bow, Mulagir, a good amount, people would still be upset.
TL;DR: Too many Fire Emblems, so the fight for the newcomer spot is heated.
Reason #3:Poor Timing
The Choose Your Legends polls are essentially popularity polls consisting of every character in the Fire Emblem series. The Top 2 winners of the Men's bracket and the Top 2 winners of the Women's bracket get special versions of themselves within the Fire Emblem Heroes mobile game.
In case you don't know, Lyn came in 1st in said poll on the women's side of the bracket, with 49,917 individual votes, only being beaten out by Ike, in the case you were to combine is votes, where he would have 51,555 votes. If you aren't combining votes, then Lyn is easily 1st place.
Now of course, the problem here is that these results came out in early 2017. The general agreement in the Smash community is that the roster had to have been finalized sometime during 2016. Now, later additions aren't unheard of in Super Smash Brothers, but if the general agreement is to be trusted, it seems like Lyn's key factor: her popularity, may have just barely missed the cut.
TL;DR: If the roster truly had been finalized in 2016, and there wasn't any post-finalization attempts, from either Sakurai and Friends OR Intelligent Systems, to get her into Smash, then her popularity means butt.
Reason #4:Assist Trophy
I think her assist trophy role is honestly both a point FOR and AGAINST her. We'll get to the FOR part later, but as of right now, Sakurai may just consider her Assist Trophy role perfectly fine. She's had the role for two games now (an honor shared by: Andross, Devil, Dr. Wright, Hammer Brother, Advance Wars Tanks, Isaac, Jeff, Kat and Ana, Knuckle Joe, Lakitu, Metroid, Nintendog, Saki Amamiya, Samurai Goroh, Shadow the Hedgehog, Starfy, Tingle, and Waluigi), so Sakurai may not see a need to change that.
REASONS FOR LYN:
Reason #1: Extreme Popularity Within the Fire Emblem Fanbase / Franchise
I feel like it is safe to say that within the Fire Emblem fanbase itself, Lyn is without a doubt one of the most popular characters, and this is really the biggest thing she has going for her.
Of course, right off the bat it's worth posting the Choose Your Legends poll results I've mentioned before.
So yeah, she's super popular. It's also worth nothing that her Brave version (the one where she is on a horse and uses a bow) is the most S-Supported character in the game, although a lot of that may just have to do to how her Brave version is a very strong character in the game, because S-Supporting a character gives them extra stats. So, not as much of an indicator of popularity as the poll, but it still shows that a lot of people know about her. I could probably go on and on about how she's popular, but I feel like a much more important part of it would be...
Reason #2: Nintendo and Intelligent System's Drive to get Lyn into Fire Emblem Things
When Nintendo and Intelligent System's saw Lyn's skyhigh popularity, you bet your ass that Nintendo and Intelligent Systems wanted to milk that as hard as they could. It's probably one of the reasons why she has fourdifferentversions in Fire Emblem Heroes, because if she's popular, then that means more people willing to spend money on her.
However, the best example of Nintendo and Intelligent Systems really pushing her in things is best demonstrated with Fire Emblem Warriors. The developers of Fire Emblem Warriors are known for only focusing on characters from Archanea (Marth's games, FE1/3/11/12), Ylisse (Robin and Lucina's game, FE13), and Fateslandia (Corrin's game, FE14). However, two exceptions were made, with Lyn and Celica. While Celica was chosen to represent FE15, which had just come out, Lyn was chosen due to requests from Nintendo and Intelligent Systems.
Nintendo Everything said:
Nintendo Dream Magazine: And speaking of surprises, it’s about Lyn which you just mentioned now. She was announced during the Nintendo Direct, but why did you have Lyn as the character announced there?
Fire Emblem Warriors Producer, Yosuke Hayashi: Nintendo Direct being shown simultaneously worldwide is the big factor. Even so, the first Fire Emblem to be released overseas was GBA’s Blazing Blade, in which Lyn was one of the protagonists. So Lyn is to foreigners as Marth is to the Japanese (TN: In term of the most memorable Fire Emblem character).
Nintendo Dream Magazine: Is that why you added her in here?
Fire Emblem Warriors Producer, Yosuke Hayashi: Yes. While we were in a meeting deciding characters with Nintendo and Intelligent Systems, there were talks of “Please put in Lyn”. However, for the GBA-era characters, we wanted to create them properly including their stories, so this time we’re only adding Lyn, and if this [title] has a future, we hope we can feature them with including stories.
The fact that Lyn appears on her own, without even Eliwood or Hector, just somewhat highlights just how highly Nintendo and Intelligent Systems consider the newfound popularity she has, and how she's somewhat considered the western mascot of the franchise. It also kind of showcases how lazy the Fire Emblem Warriors developers are but that is beside the point
It is because of how Intelligent Systems and Nintendo try to get her in a lot of Fire Emblem related things that I don't really feel like her lack of relevancy or her missing the "2016" draft of the Smash 5 roster doesn't really mean a whole ton. We know for a fact that Smash rosters change over time (Gematsu leak, anyone?), and it would seem somewhat likely for Nintendo and Intelligent Systems to personally request Sakurai and Friends to put Lyn in Smash, just like they had with Fire Emblem Warriors. Even if the roster had been settled on sometime in 2016, having IS and Nintendo request her in early 2017 would not be that much of a stretch to work with.
TL;DR: She is insanely popular. This is pretty much the driving factor behind her getting into anything. Nintendo and Intelligent Systems know this, and like putting her in things. It isn't completely unheard of for Nintendo and Intelligent Systems to put her in games with already mostly pre-determined rosters, if Warriors is anything to go off of.
Reason #3: Fire Emblem Switch Hasn't Even Been Revealed Yet
Fire Emblem Switch was announced over a year ago... and we've heard nothing about it since. There's always the potential of a sort of Roy / Corrin pre-game appearance, but I think after all of the backlash Corrin had received, I'm not so sure we'll be getting something like that this time around. Of course, this is all just speculation, but I think it does give
If Fire Emblem Switch somehow DOES come out before Smash does, or if it finally gets announced like tomorrow or something, then I think this point will become somewhat moot.
Reason #4:Assist Trophy
This reason isn't as interesting as everything else I've been writing. She just has a history with Smash, and Assist Trophy promotes have been a thing in the past (Little Mac). In terms of Assist Trophy promotes, I feel like she has one of the better chances. Although, of course, it isn't guaranteed we'll have an Assist Trophy promotion this time around.
FINAL TL;DR: Her main struggle lies her lack of current relevancy within the Fire Emblem franchise and the general distaste numerous Smash players currently have with the Fire Emblem franchise, but remains a decently solid choice due to her immense popularity and the drive Intelligent Systems and Nintendo have to put her in things, because of aforementioned popularity. I really just think it all comes down to what is considered more important for Smash: Popularity or Relevancy and Marketability? For Fire Emblem, I think it is a franchise more centered around the second when it comes to choosing characters in Super Smash Brothers.
Goodness, that took a long time. Anyway, next part.
Want - 65%
She's cool. I enjoy playing as her in a certain Brawl mod I do not know if I am allowed to mention here or not, because she was technically never released.
I feel like she could be pretty unique in Smash, being an almost Sonic-tier speed character, but with a sword and a bow. Just give her a moveset similar to ManlySpirit's MYM and I'm down.
Originally I had a lot of the "Chance" part in spoilers, but they messed with the quotes. If this breaks some rule or something for a super long post, I can throw them back in spoilers.
Nominations:
Katrielle Layton (Professor Layton) x4
Black Shadow x1
Despite being one of the most popular characters from her series, Lyn simply has too much competition. Right off the bat, there are SIX Fire Emblem veterans that Sakurai has to consider, then there is competition from Celica, another popular character who is actually relevant at this time, AND THEN you have competition from a Katana based moveset in the form of Takamaru.
If it was just one of these issues I'd say she has a half decent shot, but put them all together and things are looking grim for the girl from the plains.
Want: 80%
Fire Emblem's oversaturation brings this down a bit, but I still adore Lyn. I miss the days when we had good Fire Emblem lords like her...
Prediction for Celica: 28%
Prediction for Andy: 17%
But she wouldn't promote the latest FE game, or an upcoming game.
And she uses a sword and so provides less uniqueness than some other options. Sure, she could have a different style, but she's less obviously unique than a character like Robin or Corrin. She would, however, be good for a semi-clone if Sakurai was looking for one of those. But as a semi-clone I would rate her chances higher if I knew Lucina and/or Roy were going to be cut (including if Lucina were turned into an alt costume).
Lyn chances: 10%
Fire Emblem has a lot of competition, and she's not the most relevant from a promotion perspective, nor is she the most unique. But she has a chance, particularly because she would be a sensible replacement for Lucina or Roy as a semi-clone.
Lyn want: 25%
We have more than enough Fire Emblem characters, so I'm unlikely to rate many of them even as high as indifference (50%). I would prefer her to Lucina, Roy and probably some of the other options though, and I still think we need more female representation. She's also dinged for being a sword-user, when I know FE has more distinct types of fighters to represent.
Lyn
Chance: 15%
Hopefully, Sakurai looked at the Fire Emblem Heroes poll, and at the very least, Lyn can be a Marth skin.
Want: 82%
My favorite of the first sagas of Fire Emblem.
When combining all of Ike's votes together, he has a total of 51,555 votes, which does indeed beat out Lyn's vote count of 49,917. So, she isn't THE most popular, because that still goes to Ike. But she is a hyper-popular character for sure.
I'll post my write up eventually. There's a lot to say about Lyndis.
Also, keep in mind that Ike's popularity increased a lot thanks to the fact that he is a playable character in Smash Bros, although he was already popular. But Lyn isn't a playable character and even so, she almost beats ike, therefore, for me Lyn is the favorite character of the saga just like Ike. It's a fact that Smash Bros increases the popularity of the playable characters, but Lyn hasn't needed that game for her to become the most beloved woman in the Fire Emblem saga.
Lyn is a popular character among the Fire Emblem franchise, but as Opussum pointed out in his RTC post, Lyn's newfound popularity came from the Fire Emblem Heroes CYL poll from 2017. A poll that Intelligent Systems probably expected Lucina to win. If we subscribe to the belief that the roster was decided in 2016, it's probably too late to add her to the base roster. The timing of the Japanese release of Fire Emblem Awakening was just right for Sakurai to look into it and settle on Robin. I see Lyn getting an updated model and voice if she retains her role as an Assist Trophy.
Want: 50%
I'm more in favor of Celica, but I'm not opposed to Lyn being added to the roster. Frankly, I think because of the nature of the Fire Emblem and Pokemon franchises, they can get away with having a bunch of characters added to Smash.
Lyn chances: 7.5%
With Sakurai's comment about the number of Fire Emblem characters and the lack of major roles in recent FE games, it seems she would have trouble being selected. She has popularity going for her, but the results of the recent poll weren't known when Sakurai decided on the roster. Maybe she was planned at low priority that time then put in higher priority when the results were known?
Lyn want: 3%
Meh. That's all I have to say.
Celica prediction: 38.35%
Andy prediction: 14.96%
Nominating:
Concept: veteran character artworks recycled from Smash 3DS/Wii U x5
Chance - 10%
She's been an assist trophy for two games. I have a feeling Sakurai thinks this is a fair representation for her. Fire Emblem tends to use the latest lord from the past title into the new Smash. These factors make me think her chances aren't too great.
Want - 25%
Like Chrom, I just don't care for an additional Fire Emblem character at this time. However, her 5% increase comes from her concept and design. She stands out, something I think Chrom lacks in both categories.
I understand being nostalgic for one's first FE protagonist, but it is really hard to believe there are that many people in that boat. I don't understand how she scored so high in the CYL poll, unless more hardcore FE players aren't interested in FE Heroes to begin with. Regardless, I don't think it's a good reason to add a character. A myrmidon with a bow is a little appealing, though.
Nominations:
Neku x5
* Indicates percentage penalty for potentially taking a slot from most wanted characters
Chance: 55%
I'm taking a gamble on it, but I think Lyn might have a pretty decent chance this time around when it comes to a possible Fire Emblem newcomer. Although Blazing Blade came out many years ago and was the first localised Fire Emblem game, a lot of people seem to love Lyn either because she was one of the heroes of their first FE game, love her fast myrmidon-inspired Lord class or like her character. Even though she hasn't appeared since her debut game, I think the fact that she was #1 Most Voted Female character in the FE series proves that Lyn has quite a fan base, both for Fire Emblem fans new and old. She's got 4 versions of herself in FE: Heroes (Soon we'll end up with Lyn (Santa Lily (Alter)) if Fate/Grand Order's anything to go by lol), and even showed up as the only Elibe character for Fire Emblem Warriors (Probably because the game's roster is focused on Archanaea, Ylisse and Fates), so even though she hasn't been given anything like a new Elibe game, I think Lyn's popularity might lead to her getting some consideration for a promotion to playable as a result of said popularity.
That said, I can imagine there's more than a few obstacles in her way - Lyn may be relegated to Assist Trophy material again in spite of popularity - the CYL poll didn't really exist until 2017, more than halfway through the game's estimated development start time of 2016 (if that's what people are assuming), but then again, maybe they could have noticed Lyn was popular, and decided it wouldn't hurt to add a fan favourite over someone who just wanted to be in for advertising reasons. *coughCorrincough*
Otherwise they might decide to go easy on what sort of content FE receives given that it got plenty of love last time, but then again, given FE's current success for Nintendo these days, at the very least, probably only 1 character added - which could be anyone, Celica or Alm from Echoes, or the protagonist of whatever happened to FE16, or skipped because of how much attention it got last time in favour of other series. Hard to say for sure, but I'm willing to say Lyn at least has a decent chance for Smash Switch.
Want: 85%
Bit of an interesting connection with Lyn - Never really played much of Blazing Blade even though I have it on my Wii U Virtual Console (Probably the reason why I'm keeping it - it's the VC, Wii and Smash Bros machine at this point), but she was the first 5-Star Hero I got in FEH, and I've come to like her quite a bit. If I get a chance, I'll boot up Blazing Blade to see more of Lyn's own game, but as of now, I'd say she's my preference for a new Fire Emblem character. HOWEVER! While I wouldn't object to Lyn's promotion, I would like to see other series that may have missed their chance get at least a few new characters of their own before we get another Fire Emblem character, such as new Pokémon, Donkey Kong, Kirby, even new series like Golden Sun, Murasame Castle, ARMS, etc.
So yes, I would love to see Lyn get promoted to playable, but I'd definitely prioritise other series getting new characters first.
Nominations: Marx X2
Geese Howard (Fatal Fury/The King of Fighters) X3
She’s the only Fire Emblem lord that has true popularity (amongst the most popular), besides Marth that is. Ike and Roy are probably very popular today because of smash. Despite that she remains second place, overall, amongst the lords. However we know that they usually pick the most modern and not most popular so that will probably keep her behind. Unless they decide to throw a curveball or the timing is right for a remake (doubtful).
Generic? Not at all. She's a biracial nomad who lost her parents and tribe and has struggled to survive alone since. She becomes the target of her uncle due to his attempts to usurp her rightful place as heir to her frail grandfather in Caelin. Her story, while short, deals with issues of racism and sexism. She's optimistic despite losing everything, intelligent, brave, and proud. She is a fast fighter who uses katanas and bows. People do not just like her because she's a woman.
I was spamming the word "generic" as far as moveset potential. Please educate me on what she could do in a moveset, I'd be happy to hear about it. There still is time for me to edit my given percentages, you know.
Smasher 101
was the closest so they get 5 extra noms
