Rate Their Chances- Smash Ultimate Day 340 - Lara Croft (Tomb Raider)

Ura

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Bandicoot time.

Chance: 15%

He's a very iconic character, for sure. But... This is a legitimate question, and I don't mean this condescendingly... Where are you people getting such absurdly large odds from? Yes, he's a third party and he has a game being ported to the Switch.

...And?

Seriously, I don't get why N. sane Trilogy getting a Switch port means ANYTHING other than it's getting a Switch port. Does it boost his odds slightly? Yeah. Enough to get him above the 30% margin? Hell and no. He's still a third party character, one who doesn't have as much of a Nintendo status as a Sony status. The same can be said for :4cloud: I know, but Final Fantasy itself at least shares a home on Nintendo. And I would daresay he's not the most popular third party pick by a notable margin. I dunno, I'm not getting where this is coming from. To be fair though, that might be because...

Want: 10%
I have really never been one for the Crash games. I played the original 3, they're okay, but it's absolutely never stuck out for me among PS1 classics or platforming mascots in general. I'd much rather have other third parties. But he is certainly beloved and iconic enough that I wouldn't be upset.

I'm not voting for Lyn's probability because as some of you may expect, I'm dreading tomorrow.

Nominate Geno x5
Crash has always been a popular character. Maybe not so much Smash wise (although he could always have a silent support base we don't know of) but his presence as a gaming icon can't be denied. As I mentioned before, he could be a :4ryu:/:4cloud:kind of deal of a character most people never thought they wanted. Crash also enjoys popularity in every region of the world and has sold big in all of them.
Now starring/starting Lyn

Chance: 10%
She really missed the boat, but she was the most voted female character on the FE Heroes Choose your legends event


Want: 30%
I never played her game, I only know her in Smash. But I like her
We're not starting yet. Wait for the calcs to come in.
 
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MasterWarlord

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Lyndis Chance 3.5%: FE strictly adds generic unwanted advertisements. Nothing more, nothing less. If it's not an advertisement, she has a small chance because of her popularity, but she is really generic, even for a Fire Emblem character.

Lyndis Want 0%: Generic Fire Emblem character that is a tutorial character in her game that people request for her gender.

Nominate Blue Bowser x4
Nominate Medusa x1
 
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Crash Bandicoot
Chances: 40%
He's a third party character, so chances are rather slim. They'd be slimmer if he wasn't on Nintendo systems since 2001 and Cloud (who has only appeared on Nintendo systems in the Kingdom Hearts games) and Ryu weren't in.
Want: 50%
I'm absolutely neutral to him. If he's in, he's in. If not, he's not. However, if he looks fun to play as, I'll play as him. That's how video games work.
 

Quetzal77

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Lyndis Chance 3.5%: FE strictly adds generic unwanted advertisements. Nothing more, nothing less. If it's not an advertisement, she has a small chance because of her popularity, but she is really generic, even for a Fire Emblem character.
Lyndis Want 0%: Generic Fire Emblem character that is a tutorial character in her game that people request for her gender.

Nominate Blue Bowser x5
Generic? Not at all. She's a biracial nomad who lost her parents and tribe and has struggled to survive alone since. She becomes the target of her uncle due to his attempts to usurp her rightful place as heir to her frail grandfather in Caelin. Her story, while short, deals with issues of racism and sexism. She's optimistic despite losing everything, intelligent, brave, and proud. She is a fast fighter who uses katanas and bows. People do not just like her because she's a woman.
 
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Generic? Not at all. She's a biracial nomad who lost her parents and tribe and has struggled to survive alone since. She becomes the target of her uncle due to his attempts to usurp her rightful place as heir to her frail grandfather in Caelin. Her story, while short, deals with issues of racism and sexism. She's optimistic despite losing everything, intelligent, brave, and proud. She is a fast fighter who uses katanas and bows. People do not just like her because she's a woman.
To be fair, that is quite a generic backstory still. Like a fairly stock sad story of 'my parents have been murdered and I'm the last of my tribe' kinda deal.

HOWEVER!
The fact she remains optimistic however during all of that makes me think I'd probably enjoy her character in the game.

I appreciate you giving us a bit more backstory on Lyn. I know a lot of people didn't get the chance to play her game and even more had Awakening as their first adventure into the FE world. As much info as possible wouldn't be a bad shout from fans when we get into less well known series!
 

TCT~Phantom

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Ok so I have a German test and wont be able to post calcs until around 4:00 EST for crash. So wee are gonna start Lyndis Day rn. Also please I am going to state this again do not immediately start the next day until I say to start it. Next time this happens I will not count your posts.

Also I can't count. Predict for tomorrow Celica and Andy (I know a double day, but we can start the schedule early).
 
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Munomario777

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Lyn

Chance: 10%. Not super relevant from what I gather, and never struck me as having tons of moveset potential.

Want: 0.1%. No particular want.



Celica Prediction: 15%. Somewhat relevant due to the remake on 3DS.

Andy Prediction: 10%. AW is sadly pretty much dead at this point.

Nominations: Blue Bowser x5

 

Opossum

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Lyn!

Chance: 10%
I'm going on the lower end here. If the roster was decided later on, I might've changed this, but it's important to note that Lyn's popularity on the first Choose Your Legends poll in early 2017 COMPLETELY BLINDSIDED Intelligent Systems. If the roster was truly decided in 2016, they'd have no idea how popular she was, and considering that's her biggest draw, it might stop her from being playable this time.

Want: 55%
She's neat, but there are lots of Fire Emblem characters I'd prefer.

Predicting a 22 for Celica and a 7.9 for Andy.
Nominating Decidueye x5
 

BluePikmin11

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Like with Chrom, it is highly unlikely that she will be chosen due to the lack of relevance in Fire Emblem games. Her fan-popularity will definitely get her considered, but more than anything, it surely will be someone from Fire Emblem Switch or Echoes that will be chosen for Smash rather than her. She might be in a slightly better position than Chrom, but it does not change that her chances of being chosen for playability are very low. I personally think she will likely be relegated to an assist trophy again.

x5 Octolings

(P.S. I do not feel like I am ready to rate Celica yet, cause I just started playing her game recently, but I will try to research as much as I can.)

BTW TCT~Phantom TCT~Phantom , when will the schedule for April come? I would like to make analyses on all characters as soon as possible.
 
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Lyn:

Chance: 1%
She's another one of those characters who had much better odds in the past and who's odds are only decreasing as time goes by. The only thing going for her now is her marginal popularity and that she was the first main character in the first Fire Emblem game in the west. However, it has been a long time since that game has come out and many many more characters have sprung up with their own following. She most likely will reprise her role as an Assist Trophy.

Want: 0%
I want more Fire Emblem characters, but not ones with swords. Seriously, there's so much more to the series than just swords, it's kinda getting insulting this point.
 

Quetzal77

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Lyn
Chance: 20%
I do think she has a better chance now than last game. It still isn't very high though. It all depends on whether Sakurai thinks it's more important to keep the FE roster as is or to overhaul it a bit. Lyn beat characters like Ike, Lucina, Tharja, Robin, and Roy in the FE Heroes character polls. She is one of if not the most popular FE character. She has relevancy as the first Western main character. And she has moveset potential, as there are no katana fighters, and she also uses a bow differently than the ones in the game, being quicker with it than Link or Pit. However, she faces competition from Celica and the upcoming FE protagonist. I can only see her getting in if there are 2 to 3 cuts in the existing FE roster along with one of these two characters or as DLC.

Want: 100%
She's one of my favourite FE characters so I would be thrilled.

Predictions:
Celica: 40%
Andy: 16%

Nominations: Pyra/Mythra (without Rex), Mipha x2, Impa x2
 
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Lyn
Chance: 20%
As Opossum has said, it is far too late to incorpoate Lyn winning the CYL results towards her popularity if the roster was hard-locked in 2016. And sadly she doesn't have that much moveset potential, which is probably why Sakurai relegated her to being assist trophy. She faces competition with the more relevant and unique Celica who has a lot going for her which I will say for her day tomorrow.

Want: 100%
Despite this though, if she can make it in I will be absolutely ecstatic. Lyn is one of my favorite female FE characters of all time.

Predictions:
Celica: 19.7%
Andy: 8.3%

x5 to Waluigi
 
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Graizen

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Lyn
Chances:
10%
Want: 50%

I've never been a big fan of the FE series, but I know Lyn is one of the older main characters. She never had space beyond the AT, always stood aside for characters like Lucina to enter the game, I believe due to popularity.
Would it be nice to have her in the game? Absolutely!
Is she coming in? Probably not, and will continue as an AT for the same reasons.


Nomination: Agumon x5
 
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Lyn


Chances
: 20%
This is one of those situations that makes me glad that lingering popularity alone doesn't determine these inclusions. Lyn's chances are low enough, being from a middle-of-history entry that already has Roy representing the continent and Hector being a more interesting choice all around. It's also harder to argue her weapon style being her main appeal, considering both Ryoma and Takamaru can do all that katana-fighting and more.

New Fire Emblem games have just continued to push her game back into history, and any eyes for even more Fire Emblem characters will be looking ahead more so than behind. She's still relatively popular to this day, but too much of that popularity comes from far less savory reasons to be justified, such as shameless metagame whoring. (THE ENEMY)

Want: 2%
Having never played her games, her prominence and popularity have always reeked to me of the same phenomenons that made Tharja and Camilla popular characters. While she's nowhere near as bad as those two basket cases, and though we haven't strictly had a playable Myrmidon/Swordsmaster until now, I'm still not enthused at the idea of her being the next best sword lord. If we have to pick one sword, why can't we get the one that shoots lightning??


Predictions
Celica: 52%
Andy: 37%

Nominations
Arle Nadja 5x
 
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AlphaSSB

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Lyn

Chance: 10% - She's a pretty popular Fire Emblem character who already exists as an Assist Trophy. It wouldn't be hard to turn her into a playable character. However, I don't think her popularity really shown itself in time for Sakurai to really consider. I will say that, if by some random chance, Lyn does not return as an Assist Trophy, she will almost certainly be DLC. Until then, I think her chances are pretty low.

Want: 0% - I'm not a fan of adding more Fire Emblem to the roster.

Nominations: Midna x5
 
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The plains' grill

Chance: 35%
We already have plenty of FE characters, but her popularity among FE fans, notably with FE Heroes, and the fact she's one of the faces of FE's localization to the West might be her saving graces.

Want: 15%
She has kind of a generic design that would fit in every anime ever, but as a katana users she might bring a new style of swordplay in Smash, tho Takamaru can do the same but better.


Noms:
Music: Final Destination (Ver. 2) x5

Predictions:
Celica: 31.2%
Andy: 11.3%
 
D

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Lyn

Chance: 2%

Only due to popularity within the Fire Emblem fandom, as indicated by that FE Heroes poll and her being one of the very few non-Shadow Dragon/3DS characters in FE Warriors. However, the roster was likely decided before either of those games were a thing, and even if it weren't, we'd probably get Alm or Celica who got a remake recently, or maybe one of the Heroes or Warriors OCs. And the new Smash is probably too late in development for the next mainline FE on Switch to be considered, but I digress.

There's also the issues of the Assist Trophy role she's had for two consecutive games (though Little Mac and Charizard show that NPC promotions are possible), and the fact that even Sakurai himself feels he oversaturated the roster with FE (unless he cuts a character or two).

Want:
90%

I wouldn't mind another FE character, even if all the current ones stay, and Lyn would be cool to have in Smash.

Prediction: Celica - 16.7%; Andy - 2.4%

Nominations: Shulk x10 (Using those five extra nominations I forgot about yesterday if you don't mind. If not, then just X5 is fine.)
 

KingofPhantoms

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Lyn Chance: 5%

To my knowledge, her only relevance lately is from spin-off games, with her debut being from a considerably older game by now. She's one protagonist to choose from among many. I don't have much knowledge about FE, but I don't think she's got much else going for her aside from some degree of popularity. We'll see if that manages to be enough to get her by this point.

Want: 1%

I have absolutely no interest in this character. The only reason this isn't 0% is because I'm not completely against her inclusion.

Nominations: Shovel Knight x5
 

ikke471

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Lyn

Chance: 5%

She's not relevant anymore plus I'm sure the new FE game will get a rep not old ones.. though there's a small chance.

want: 0%

I think she's a very boring character. I don't care for her at all.
 
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Lyn dis, Lyn dat

Chance- 20%
I think we will get a new FE character. But the 3DS remake, phone game and 2 switch games offer a whole other pool of characters to add, so I think they will instead go for new blood. This character is popular from what I see, though, so maybe DLC or a later entry. But I can't confidently say those will happen, either.

Want- 5%

Lyndis Prediction: 31%
(Braces self for the likely *LOL GO BURN IN HELL, FIRE EMBLEM! DONKEY KONG IS SUPREME!*
Welp, no one has said it yet, so I must take action. Ahem...

LOL GO BURN IN HELL, FIRE EMBLEM! DONKEY KONG IS SUPREME! (I say this in jest! :) )

Jokes aside, I have no reason to want this character. She is one of my friends most wanted characters, so a few bonus points since her inclusion would make him very happy.

Celica- 63.78%
Andy- 12.84%

Thwomp X 5
 
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Lyn

Chance: 2%

Would't be relevant by the time the roster was decided and to me it's even a question if we are getting more Fire emblem characters.

Want: 0%

You guys know my opinion on FE at this point, plus I can't think of anything interesting she could bring to the table.

Predictions:
Celica 22.81%
Andy 5.97%

Nominations:
Hades x5
 
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Lyn
Chance: 10%
She has her status as an assist trophy and her huge popularity within the FE fanbase, but I don't think Sakurai would go to her for a newcomer.

Want: 85%
I love FE, I love Lyn, I would love to see her playable in Smash, but at the end of the day she would just be another sword user.

Nominate 2B x5
 
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Lyn:

Chance:
20% - Probably the best chance Lyn has realistically had for a Smash game, but that doesn't say much. She's has quite the resurgence as far as popularity within her series goes, and for Smash she's always had okay support too. With Fire Emblem being in a state where the newest game isn't that new anymore, and the next game will come out pretty late in regards to Smash, I think she's got an outside chance. She's certanily not the frontrunner as far as FE newcomers go, but she's not that far behind in the pecking order either.

Want: 50% - She's probably the only semi-realistic Fire Emblem newcomers I'd be okay with, if only because I like the idea of a character who's neither retro or relevant to the series' newest entry getting in purely because of popularity. She's probably the biggest Fire Emblem character who's not in yet too, or at least the most recognizable, so she'd be preferable to your typical flavor of the week.

Nominations: Shovel Knight x5
 
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DNeon

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Lyndis

Chance: 45%

Honestly I'm so unsure, there's so many arguments for either side. She's an older character without a remake/remaster on the horizon. But lets be real here, she's far and away the most popular Fire Emblem character not yet in Smash. She's the most popular female and has proven it recently with the Heroes Choose Your Legend polls. but she's also from the clump of FE's that involve Roy which means she also has direct competition. But she's an iaido user and we don't have one. But there are so many FE characters already and likely more to come. In the end I rated her just a bit below Takamaru, partially because I think they might actually be directly competing, but partially because I want to say she's a coinflip like him but I think there might be a hint of favouritism.

Want: 100%

Blazing Sword was my first Fire Emblem. She also has a chance to be the first FE lady to not be an alternate for a dude. Plus she could be the first iaido rep, which sets her apart from other sword users. Also she's just so damn cool.

Andy Prediction: 100% LETS GO MY BOI

Celica Prediction: 14.63%

Nominations:
An...wait don't need to do that anymore :p
Hmmm, lets go with..wait, nobody's done this yet!!!
Spyro x 5
 
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Lyn

Chance: 15% - She's been consistently popular and is still somewhat relevant because of FE Heroes and Warriors, but I don't think Sakurai's going to look to the past when it comes to FE characters if we get another one. She's probably going to stay an AT imo, unless she did really well in the Ballot.

Want: 65% - Lyn's one of my more favorite FE lords, and I would love to see an iai specialist/myrmidon; I was hyped when she was being worked on for Project M. Of all of the sword characters in Smash already, we don't have a character who specializes in iai and katanas. Plus, she can also use bows, so she has more than just a sword. However, with the overabundance of FE characters already, I won't be too sad if she doesn't make it.

Predictions:
Celica - 24.67%
Andy - 11.27%

Nominations:
Sans x5
 

Diddy Kong

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Lyn

Realistic chance: 45%

The odds are definitely against her, always where. But she's still a character people clamor to, a character that has kept her popularity through many years and new game releases in her home franchise. That's something to respect. And due to the fact there's not a Fire Emblem character who's a great frontrunner at this moment, the nature of Fire Emblem Echoes being a concept of remaking older Fire Emblem titles which FE7 will eventually get as well, her inclusion in Warriors AND her insane popularity and Assist Trophy status since Brawl... Yeah I think she has a small chance.

Want: 100%

I want more Fire Emblem characters in general. I like the current cast and am attached to them all greatly, wouldn't mind a newcomer or 2 at all from Fire Emblem. They are high quality characters with a lot of moveset potential. So why not? Fire Emblem has a lot to thank the Smash Bros. fanbase for. I think it's only a natural reaction to the impact the inclusion of Marth and Roy in Melee made.

Also, not because she uses a sword, means she's boring. Am all in for it! Lyn seems like a natural fit for Smash Bros.

Nominating Impa x 5
 

Tew

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Lyn Chances:
25%
That's a hard one. I am pretty sure we will see at least 1 new fire emblem character maybe even 2. While she is the most popular fe character not yet included in smash, but the feheroes poll maybe happened too late. Then again she could be included as dlc (considering the smash 4 dlc chas were developed after they finished the game as well, so characters that weren't too famous earlier still have some chances). And she is an assist trophy. Many popular characters are assist trophies and one even became a fighter. But there are many other potential fe characters, such as the prota of the upcoming fe for switch (seems to me the most likely candidate), fjorm from heroes, Rowan and Lianna from warriors, Alm and Celica from the recent remakes and maybe Hector or Camilla as fan favourite axe users. And while she is very famous I don't think they want to add more fe sword users.

Lyn Want:
35%
She is one of my favourite fe characters but there are a few I would like to see more, like Fjorm, Azura, Tiki and Camilla.


Celica Predict:
32% (no sword user and recent remake)
Andy Predict:
8% (I'd love to see him but I just don't think it's very likely considering the state of Advance wars)

Nominations:
5x Fjorm
 
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Lyn prediction: 20%

Want: 60%

I think Fire Emblem will be toned down for this game.

Prediction:

Celica: 26.65%

Andy:9.21%

Nominate Lucasx5
 
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Chance: 35%
For better or worse (it's worse) were getting more FE characters and she's popular with fans, though lacking in relevance in the series.

Want: 0%
I don't want any FE characters unless some of the ones in Smash get cut.
 

Arcanir

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American Marth

Chance: 10%
As has been mentioned before, I doubt IS and Sakurai would've been aware of her popularity at the time he was looking around for characters as CYL didn't get its full results until February and IS themselves admit they were surprised by it at the time. Additionally, due to the revolving door aspect of the series, I doubt they'd go back to pick a character whose time has long passed when there are at least two other lords (Alm/Celica) that are more recent, even if she's been a lot more highly promoted as of late. Thus, outside of maybe DLC (and even then, there's the FE16 lord to consider if they miss the base game), I don't think she has the best chances as of now, she missed her initial shot and her popularity may not be enough to make the difference.

Want: 85%
She's always been one of my more unlikely favorites. I did enjoy the character and I think her playstyle would stand out due to her more katana and bow influence.

Nominations: Lycanroc x5
 
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Lyn

Chance: 33.34%

For a FE newcomer, it really comes down to 3 choices: Lyn, Celica, or FE16's protagonist. Given that we don't even know anything about FE16 besides its existence, I find it highly unlikely the lord would even be considered. As far as Lyn vs. Celica, Celica is more relevant because of Echoes, while Lyn is more popular. Both have pretty decent chances, especially since we know that IS would give their names to Sakurai since they forced the two into FE Warriors. With FE's move towards crossovers like Warriors and Heroes, I find it fairly likely that a popular 'legacy' character is not out of the question.

Want: 100%

One of my favorite Fire Emblem characters, maybe even my #1. Plus she'd bring something new to table as a fast swordfighter with a bow, which happens to be an archetype which even Sakurai can't make low tier.

Nominations: x5 Elma

Predictions:
Celica: 33.33%
Andy: 14.5%​
 

TCT~Phantom

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Like with Chrom, it is highly unlikely that she will be chosen due to the lack of relevance in Fire Emblem games. Her fan-popularity will definitely get her considered, but more than anything, it surely will be someone from Fire Emblem Switch or Echoes that will be chosen for Smash rather than her. She might be in a slightly better position than Chrom, but it does not change that her chances of being chosen for playability are very low. I personally think she will likely be relegated to an assist trophy again.

x5 Octolings

(P.S. I do not feel like I am ready to rate Celica yet, cause I just started playing her game recently, but I will try to research as much as I can.)

BTW TCT~Phantom TCT~Phantom , when will the schedule for April come? I would like to make analyses on all characters as soon as possible.
There won’t be a fixed schedule for April, we are now going off he noms list. Except for a special surprise, there are no fixed days.
 

Sailor Waddle Dee

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Lyn

Chance: Abstain = I really don't know enough about Lyn to say what her chances are with any level of logic or thought, so i think it's better if i don't say anything of her chances.

Want: 1% - She's not a sword wielding blue (or white) haired anime boy. .... she's got green hair... and is a girl... that at least makes her a bit more distinct amongst the FE reps. but there are already plenty of FE reps and I'm sure there are more interesting characters that could be included. she makes a nice Assist Trophy though.

Predictions

Andy: 14%

Celica: 8.5%

Nominations

Qbby x5
 
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CaptainAmerica

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Lady Assist Trophy

Chance: 20%
Want: 75%

“Muh Fire Emblem Has too many reps!”

You know, FE did get way too much in the last version, and Corrin and Lucina did manage to sour loads of people on the series, but I wouldn’t mind Lyn replacing Lucina this round. Lyn’s been around since Brawl, but as an assist only. She is one of the most popular characters so it would be no problem for her to come in.

Still, she has been around for a while so she’s not exactly recent. With Takamaru in the wings, the katana moveset is now not so unique.

I would like a new Fire Emblem character who isn’t a clone. Lyn’s a good choice, but I think I’d prefer Azura. Granted, I haven’t played and Fire Emblem, but Azura does have a staff moveset which could be awesome, while Lyn would feel a bit generic.

Prediction for Cecilia: 19.6%
Prediction for Andy: 6.3%

Nominate Mewtwo x5
 

CatRaccoonBL

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Lyn Chance: 40%

I feel like since dlc will most likely be a thing again, that should be a massive consideration. While yes, the cyl poll was most likely too late and the guys had no idea about Lyn's popularity, dlc makes a point like that not matter as much. And while rosters were most likely finalized at a certain point, that doesn't mean assist trophies have to be. Sakurai could easily remove her as an assist trophy just in case he might want to have her a potential dlc.

I feel like it really is important to realize that she is the most popular character in fire emblem. And by a lot.

Lyn: ~49,000 votes
Lucina: ~42,000 votes

Ike meanwhile was the most popular boy. And yet he has only has around 33,000 votes.


And this is actual proof that the fire emblem devs have actually seen. Not something like how certainly characters seem popular because certain groups of people are shouting about them.

Now yes, there are other things to consider. Her moveset potential seems like it could be lacking. With the only other addition I can personally think off the top of my head being adding a bow...which plenty of other characters can already do. And she also has plenty of competiton. Shadows of Valentia for the base game and Fire emblem Switch character for dlc. Not to mention if she would have to make it in as dlc then she has competition in that way as well.

Her popularity really shouldn't be underestimated I feel.

With all that said...

Want: 15%

I really don't care that much for her. There are plenty of other fire emblem characters I want before her. And she doesn't have anything off the top of my head that interest as a playable character the same way chrous kids do. Still I would be fine if she got in.

Predictions: Andy: 5% Celica: 25.23%

Nominate: ashley (warioware) x 5
 

a smart guy

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Lyn
Chance: 10% The most popular Fire Emblem character. The key word is Fire Emblem though. Fire Emblem has a lot of representatives in Smash, making it difficult to imagine them getting a newcomer. In addition, they may pass over Lyn yet again, and go for a character from a more recent game. In her favor, she does have an Assist Trophy, which means Sakurai is aware of her character. It's just doubtful that she will become fully playable.
Want: 10% I don't want another Fire Emblem character. It's just over saturated at this point.

Predictions:
Andy: 24%
Celica: 18%

Nominate: Chibi-Robo x5
 
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