Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[ProfPeanut]

Stardew Crossing

Chance: 15%
Harvest Moon has had a pretty comparable history to Animal Crossing, being a healthy and consistent franchise for people who just want to chill out, make their bed, and farm fruits for money. Certainly, the Farmer is visually distinct from the Villagers, even if they come from similar humble origins.

However, the idea of a Harvest Moon rep is not one that sells itself; it's a non-fighter candidates that has to content with an ocean's worth of fighter candidates. You'd be including one almost purely for the sake of including Harvest Moon in Smash, not because there's exciting moveset potential here (unless some really unforeseen stroke of inspiration hits Sakurai.)

Want: Abstain
Never played them, and I can't say they strike me as an exciting concept. But they're not the most random or invalid idea in the world to go for.


Nominations
Papyrus x5

 

[Ninjaed]

Mylène Farmer

Chance: 1% - would've been higher for a base roster
This is a study case of a character that would make a great addition to smash as a base roster character, but would be a terrible choice from a DLC perspective. The games are widely known and popular, with a history tightly linked to Nintendo... but there's already a very similar concept already in the game. As an echo fighter or semi-echo fighter (like what Roy has become to Marth), I'd definitely see such an inclusion in a base roster.

But as a DLC? They want to sell you goods, to "wow" you. Giving players a rehashed Villager isn't going to impress many people, no matter how enjoyable the character could've been.

Want: abstain
I... honestly couldn't tell you. I've played the games yes, but there's already villager and I'm definitely not fond of the gameplay. So I don't know how enjoyable I'd find Farmer's moveset, but the only comparison I have right now makes me think I wouldn't enjoy it much... I just don't know.

Prediction: League of Legends rep - 20%
Dayum, tough cookie to nut that one... One of the biggest franchises in the world, but no ties to Nintendo + is western... Could go either way really, what with Riot suddenly announcing development of several new games + animated series + more. This'll be an interesting one for sure!

Nominations: Riesz x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

The ever-changing title of this series

Chance: 10%
I'd say there's an outside shot. It's kind of a more casual series, and its better known by a name it's not using anymore, so I understand why the Smash community overlooks this series. Still, Harvest Moon is very iconic and influential and I could totally see it as something Sakurai wants to represent. I'm not sure why people say a character from it would play like Villager, afaik Villager doesn't use farming equipment in his moveset so I think people are just conflating the similar audiences with similar movesets.

Regardless, I think the massive success of Stardew Valley speaks volumes to the fanbase games like Harvest Moon have. It's one of those "Smash fanbase wouldn't care but it'd be huge regardless" choices.

Want: 90%
I love me some Harvest Moon and as a kid I totally thought Pete would be in Smash, but I forgot about that idea until someone brought it up and gotta say, it's still hella appealing. Harvest Moon is one of those quintessential Japanese franchises and Sakurai's all about those.

Noms: First parties X5
Prediction: Lol rep 7%

Sorry, but this Scythe is not yours. You'll get your chance soon though (Farmer):

Chance: 0.5 % for Ultimate's DLC, 35 % for Smash 6

I have not been following Harvest Moon, at all. But from all accounts it doesn't look like close to a priority for Ultimate's DLC, what with the third party focus and Nintendo's representatives being in the minority at most. It smells like Smash 6 material - if 6 happens it's another major chance for more minor Nintendo characters.

Still, I won't fully count out the Farmer. (S)He fits Sakurai's love for weird picks, and has potentially a couple unique weapons to use. Sure, Villager has an axe, but it's only for one move. Meanwhile, not only does the Farmer have an entire game series to choose from, the image of the Farmer / Peasant is known to all (both in history and the present day*). In case the games doesn't have for example an Up-B move one could pull an IRL tool. So moveset-wise it should be no issue at all.

So I'm calling HM as much more likely for next game.

Want: ???

Never played, but the moveset could be really interesting and unique honestly. The King of Evil getting slapped around by a Peasant is a really funny image too, so bonus points for that.

Predictions: Concept: League of Legends rep 2,4 % (expecting a few high schores, and a lot of low ones)

*(One historical quirk is that 90 % or more of a given country were peasants / farmers, at least up to 1800 or so when industrilasation began to take off.)

Harvest Moon isn't a Nintendo series.

 

[SKX31]

Harvest Moon isn't a Nintendo series.

Oh, it isn't? Huh, TIL It's a Marvelous series. My mistake.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Concept: Dragalia Lost rep pre-Farmer

Ninten x125
9-Volt x120
[Rerate] Dovahkiin x120
Rundas x115
The Horrible Goose (Untitled Goose Game) x110
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x105
Riesz (Mana) x105

100 - 51

Aloy x100
Boss: Kracko x100
Frogger x95
[Rerate] Steve x95
Concept: Any grass-type starter x93
Concept: First-parties after the Fighter Pass x90
Glover x85
Sol Badguy x85
Sunflower (Plants vs. Zombies) x85
Noctis Lucis Caelum x80
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x80
[Rerate] Geno x80
Proto Man x75
Concept: No more stages beyond the Pass x75
Ryo Hazuki x75
X (Mega Man) x68
[Rerate] Quote x67
Brian (Quest 64) x65
Thrall (Warcraft) x65
Papyrus x61
[Rerate] Sora x61
Francis York Morgan x55
Decidueye x53

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Reporter & Wrestler x50
[Rerate] Bandana Dee x45
Sackboy x43
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x35
[Rerate] Heihachi x35
Concept: Any new Xenoblade character x35
[Rerate] Dante x32
Akira Howard x30
Earthworm Jim x26

Under 25

Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x20
[Rerate] Shadow the Hedgehog x20
Unsafe Wiimote Guy x20
Meowth x20
Chun-Li x16
The Blob (De Blob) x15
[Rerate] Rayman x15
[Rerate] Lloyd Irving x15
King Boo x13
Urbosa x12
Giygas x10
Concept: Lord Fredrik as an Echo of K. Rool x10
[Rerate] Doomguy x10
[Rerate] Claude von Riegan x10
Mii Costume: Hollow Knight x10
Kunio (River City) x10
[Rerate] Crash Bandicoot x10
[Rerate] Monokuma x9
Rival Pokémon Trainer x7
[Rerate] Tetromino x5
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Gordon Freeman x5
[Rerate] Phoenix Wright x5
Black Shadow x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Nightmare (Soul Calibur) x5
Freddy Fazbear x2

Dovahkiin fights past Rundas and steals third place. Riesz wins her tie with Aloy and Boss: Kracko, and is now tied for sixth with Protector.

Francis York Morgan crashes past the 50 nom mark.

Oh, it isn't? Huh, TIL It's a Marvelous series. My mistake.

Actually I think the series is owned by Natsume, Marvelous owns the name Harvest Moon.

Basically Marvelous used to do localizations and then kept the name to make crap games cashing in on the series' fame. Meanwhile Natsume is now self-publishing worldwide and the name in the West had to be changed to Story of Seasons.

 

[SKX31]

Actually I think the series is owned by Natsume, Marvelous owns the name Harvest Moon.

Basically Marvelous used to do localizations and then kept the name to make crap games cashing in on the series' fame. Meanwhile Natsume is now self-publishing worldwide and the name in the West had to be changed to Story of Seasons.

Ah, gotcha. I was always under the impression that it was a Nintendo series (having never seen it on Xbox nor the PlayStation helped cement that view). BTW, I was not completely sure how to rate Harvest Moon's influence as a factor. And not just because I forgot Stardew Valley existed, but also because its influence feels a little confined to its own niche. Still, as I said, won't completely count it out because of the potentially unique moveset.

And, because I honestly forgot, editing in my nominations - which go to Thrall x5.

 

[Ornl]

Actually I think the series is owned by Natsume, Marvelous owns the name Harvest Moon.
Basically Marvelous used to do localizations and then kept the name to make crap games cashing in on the series' fame. Meanwhile Natsume is now self-publishing worldwide and the name in the West had to be changed to Story of Seasons.

It's the opposite. Natsume kept the name Harvest Moon. Marvelous continues the main series with Story of Seasons.

 

[Plank08]

Abstaining on Farmer
Sackboy X 5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

I'm gonna have to abstain on farmer boy here.
LoL rep: 1.99%
Mii costume: Hollow Knight x10

 

[zipzapsparkle]

Farmer

chance: 33%
want: 20%

I didn’t think of him before but he kind of makes sense, the series has strong ties with Nintendo. They could consider him, but they could just as well end up as a mii costume.

 

[Deleted member]

The Farmboy

Chance: 5%

Of all the characters Sakurai could put into Smash as DLC, a farmer from Story of Seasons is pretty unexpected. It was a fairly big series back when it was called Harvest Moon, but it seems like Story of Seasons isn't as big as it used to be. The issues it has for getting into Ultimate is the fact that other larger and existing game franchises are out there and would probably have more to offer than SoS, and we also have to consider if the creators of SoS are on board with the idea since they could very well feel making a farmer into a full on fighter wouldn't feel right to them. Granted, we'll never know if that'll be the case for Farmer, but it's also something to think about since even if Sakurai were to want Farmer in Smash he'd need the approval from the team that created the series themselves.

Want: 25%

I've only played 2 Harvest Moon games in the past, but I hardly remember most of what happen in those games since my sister was more into them than I ever was. I think I'd be okay with Farmer in Smash just to know how my sister would feel about the series being in Smash even though it's called Story of Seasons nowadays, but as far as an interesting moveset goes, I can't say I'd be thrilled about a farming gimmick in Smash. Depending on how he looks in Smash will determine if I'll play or pass on him.
----------------
Predictions:
LoL rep - 5.24%
----------------
Noms:
Francis York Morgan x5

 

[3BitSaurus]

Farmer
Chance: 5%
Honestly? The way Marvelous received only Spirits after the base game makes me think that's all we'll see from them. Even if it's not... why HM/SoS? There's practically no demand compared to other third parties and it seems way more like a base roster third party than a DLC one. Plus, the series has kinda seen better days imo.

It has very close ties to Nintendo and has its legacy, sure, but... I'd argue these are pretty much the only things going for it. Farmer has to contend with a lot of companies and IPs bigger than Marvelous, possibly even a few indies - to the point where I'm not sure it compares. Since somene drew the comparison: why HM and not Stardew Valley, for example?

Want: Abstain

Predictions
League of Legends rep: 7.1% -> I think a lot of people will underestimate this one...

Nominations
[Rerate] Sora x5

 

[amageish]

I'll turn up just to make comments on Farmer, why not...

Chance: 20%

Farmer's kind of a weird character in my mind, as they do so much of the stuff that people say makes other characters likely (i.e., having a long history with Nintendo, having had demonstrable long-term impact on their genre of games, having been published by Nintendo in some regions, having had Nintendo crossover costumes/items in their games, their developer has close ties to Nintendo in general, etc.), but just... aren't that likely. Even with Sakurai's statements about not needing to be well-known as a character if it is a character that is fun to play, it's hard to imagine why Nintendo would choose Farmer as a Smash character beyond "wanting to get Marvelous in Smash in new ways besides Daemon X Machina spirits" or "wanting to appeal to casual fans," but there are other characters who could fill those desires just as well as Farmer can, if not better.

The confusion surrounding the licensing of Bokujou Monogatari franchise in the west doesn't aid the optics of their likelihood, but I honestly doubt it would be a factor in their selection at all. The upcoming remake Story of Seasons: Friends of Mineral Town effectively confirms that Marvelous has retained all content in the Harvest Moon games expect for the name "Harvest Moon." Sure, some people unaware of the franchise's English name change would be confused by the announcement, but Sakurai loves explaining things in his character videos, so I doubt that would have any major impact on his odds.

Want: 90%

I love how Smash brings together characters from wildly different franchises and Farmer would be a wonderfully bizarre pick.

 

[BowserKing]

Farmer
Chance: 10%. Would be a surprise pick, but competition is the main concern. Then again, we seen more surprising characters before.

Want: 50%. Would be a surprise character, with a farming moveset that would be unique. That said, that character would be fun to play, and a farm stage would be a surprising stage.

Predictions: League of Legends Rep: 15%

Noms: 2 for Earthworm Jim and 3 for King Boo

 

[3DSNinja]

Farmer
Chance:0%: No point when Villager exists. and as DLC. Yeah, not happening.
Want: 0%: Sorry, but Stardew Valley is infinitely preferable. And I honestly don't even want Stardew Valley representation either.
Nominations:
Shadow x5

 

[DanganZilla5]

Farmer

Abstain. Don't know enough about the series to rate fairly.

Predictions: League of Legends rep - 10% (I guess it could happen, but I also can't picture it being in Smash)

Noms: Geno x5

 

[warpenguin55]

Abstaining on Farmer.

Predictions:
Lol Rep: 5%

Noms: Frogger x5

 

[Jomosensual]

Farmer

Chance 12 - I mean maybe? The more I think about it the more I take Farmer's chances from being a "probably not" to a potential character. Marvelous only getting spirits could be something but at the same time it could have just been done to hype Deamon X Machina. I'm not going higher because I think that if we get a rep from Marvelous that it's not coming until after the pass, and Travis Touchdown is by far the more likely pick if that should happen.

Want 60 - This could be really fun. Never touched a Story of Seasons game but it seems like there's enough there for a interesting moveset

Noms
Unsafe Wiimote Guy x5

 

[Perkilator]

Abstaining from Farmer

LoL Rep: 1%

Noms: Claude von Riegan relate x5

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain on Farmer. I don't know enough about them.

Nominations: Boss: Kracko x5

 

[NintenRob]

I'm just gonna abstain, don't care enough here.

Nominate no more stages x5

Prediction 1.4%

 

[GoodGrief741]

Farmer
Chance: 5%
Honestly? The way Marvelous received only Spirits after the base game makes me think that's all we'll see from them. Even if it's not... why HM/SoS? There's practically no demand compared to other third parties and it seems way more like a base roster third party than a DLC one. Plus, the series has kinda seen better days imo.

It has very close ties to Nintendo and has its legacy, sure, but... I'd argue these are pretty much the only things going for it. Farmer has to contend with a lot of companies and IPs bigger than Marvelous, possibly even a few indies - to the point where I'm not sure it compares. Since somene drew the comparison: why HM and not Stardew Valley, for example?

Want: Abstain

Predictions
League of Legends rep: 7.1% -> I think a lot of people will underestimate this one...

Nominations
[Rerate] Sora x5

Why have Stardew Valley over Harvest Moon? Harvest Moon is the codifier of the genre, Stardew Valley is very clearly and obviously inspired by it. It'd be like getting Hollow Knight over Castlevania.

 

[amageish]

Why have Stardew Valley over Harvest Moon? Harvest Moon is the codifier of the genre, Stardew Valley is very clearly and obviously inspired by it. It'd be like getting Hollow Knight over Castlevania.

Yeah... I definitely get the interest from people discussing a Stardew rep, but it strikes me as putting the cart before the horse slightly? I love Stardew Valley a lot too, but putting in a modern indie game over one of the founding games of the simulation genre would be a weird choice to me...

Also, the fully-customizable 2D sprite of SV's Farmer would be much harder to turn into a 3D Smash model then the SoS Farmers.

 

[Playstation Guy 1000]

Farmer
Chance 25%:Farmer does have a long history on Nintendo systems with the first harvest moon game in 1996 up to now Harvest Moon: Light of Hope, and he/she is from a subgenre that not represented in smash, however the fact that Farmer has competition with larger franchises make him/her pretty unlikely.
Want 35%:I don't mind Farmer being a fighter in smash since he/she can work with a bunch of farming tools so i'm okay with him/her.
Nominations:Glover X5

 

[3BitSaurus]

Why have Stardew Valley over Harvest Moon? Harvest Moon is the codifier of the genre, Stardew Valley is very clearly and obviously inspired by it. It'd be like getting Hollow Knight over Castlevania.

Yet Bayo got in before Dante.

Keep in mind - I'm not trying to diss HM - I remember it being bigger especially during the GBA/GC era, I just don't think it stands a chance now compared to games that are considered bigger in the same genre and especially not compared to other third parties.

That said, I can understand the argument and why some here would rather support HM.

 

[amageish]

Yet Bayo got in before Dante.

Keep in mind - I'm not trying to diss HM - I remember it being bigger especially during the GBA/GC era, I just don't think it stands a chance now compared to games that are considered bigger in the same genre and especially not compared to other third parties.

That said, I can understand the argument and why some here would rather support HM.

I see your point, but Bayonetta is now being published by Nintendo while DMC is a third party with it's latest game not even being on Nintendo consoles. Bayo getting the edge over her longer-standing counterpart kind of makes sense in that context.

Story of Seasons, meanwhile, is being published by Nintendo in Europe and the last 2 games have both included Nintendo crossover content. Stardew Valley is a huge game, but not one with either the legacy or the Nintendo connection that Story of Seasons has.

Honestly, I'd be fine with either. It just seems like SoS is much more likely.

 

[Sid-cada]

The Farmer

Chance - 2.5% - An old series with great Nintendo connections, an icon for the life-simulation genre, and a reasonably big game back in the day, this score honestly should be higher. Sadly, two things have caused confusion.

First, being a non-combat oriented series. While not a deathblow, in general people are more enthused by actual combatants rather than those who don't fight. These make good base roster picks, but as DLC they are a very hard sell.

Second, the whole naming problems. After they tried to self-publish, the Harvest Moon and Story of Seasons has caused consumer confusion about the series, and as a result the games have lost some appeal overseas due to not knowing the situation between the in-name only spin offs and the actual continuation under a different name.

Were it not for those two problems, they would probably be around 25-35% for me.

Want - 60% - Not entirely rooting for them. I can recognize they're a notable historical milestone, and are notable in the development of video games, so I can accept their inclusion. I just don't have a strong feeling for a moveset or personal connection to like them.


Predictions

League of Legends representative - 4.35% - I have no idea...

Nominations

Kunio X5

 

[GoodGrief741]

amageish beat me to it, but yeah, Bayonetta wouldn't have gotten in before Dante if Nintendo wasn't putting down cash on Bayo 2 and needed to promote it.

I guess it really boils down to how big the imitator gets or how different it is from its inspiration. Like, we also got Final Fantasy over Dragon Quest, but Final Fantasy was always very differentiated and ended up bigger than DQ. Same with, say, Undertale over Touhou, while UT has taken inspiration from Touhou it's largely its own thing. But I don't think Stardew Valley has gotten nearly as massive as it would need to be to stop being "that indie Harvest Moon clone".

 

[SirCamp]

It's the opposite. Natsume kept the name Harvest Moon. Marvelous continues the main series with Story of Seasons.

I'm just going to insert this quote here because it bears repeating. Marvelous is the company that has always made the Harvest Moon games that we have come to know and love, and while back in the day Natsume was involved as the localization company they were never creatively involved in the series. They simply own the name Harvest Moon now, but comparatively (imo anyway) their games are terrible and just confuse consumers as they attempt to cash in on the name that they trademarked.

Anyway, as for my ratings I would say:

Chance - 35%

Farmer is quite honestly being slept on might heavily by the community. Every point that I want to make has really already been made, but just to go over it again:

1. Harvest Moon, now Story of Seasons, has essentially invented it's own genre. The games are iconic, numerous, and heavily associated with Nintendo to the point of even being published by them in Europe sometimes and also having crossovers in some of the more recent games (farming Super Mushrooms and outfits I believe).
2. The series is surprisingly popular, if perhaps not as popular amongst Smashers, and has more recently been receiving a lot of attention.
3. The games have multiple iterations either already released or planned for the Switch (Story of Seasons Doraemon, SoS: Friends of Mineral Town remake, An as yet unnamed entirely new Story of Seasons game, Rune Factory 4 Remastered, Rune Factory 5).
4. Story of Seasons is owned by a company with a close relationship with Nintendo, and one for which negotiations have already occurred.
5. Farmer has potential for a very unique move set (I don't for a second think that Farmer would be a clone of Villager). There is a lot to work with and we know Sakurai has done more with less.
6. According to the data Ornl posted younger, Japanese Nintendo fans seem to want it. And we all know how important Japanese appeal can be.
7. The audience that Farmer appeals to is, seemingly anyway, an audience of casual players. Which, perhaps unintuitively, could be a boon for Farmer's chances due to the potential to reach a new audience with the character. Which in turn might help to sell more of the fighters pass.
8. Also related to the previous point, but the success of Stardew I think is more an indicator that Farmer is more, not less, likely. Because as others have said, Stardew is quite literally a love letter to older Harvest Moon titles and given that Story of Seasons (again Story of Seasons IS the old school Harvest Moon) is so closely associated with Nintendo, it wouldn't make sense to go with Stardew first. INstead, Stardew is simply shining a light on the genre , and tbh I think was instrumental in reviving it and likely why we are getting so many new games from Marvelous.
9. Something that isn't talked about as much, but if Rune Factory is considered as well, the moveset potential for the character goes up drastically and could include farming, crops, monsters, magic, rune abilities, item crafting, and traditional combat.

I mean earlier in this thread one poster mistook the series as being a Nintendo IP. I think that say a lot about how closely tied this 3rd party franchise is to Nintendo. And I've pointed this out before, but the fact that Rune Factory 5 was highlighted in a Nintendo direct with nothing more than a teaser I think speaks volumes to how willing Nintendo is to promote these games. That is not something that happens with many games in Nintendo directs. It doesn't even happen often with 1st party titles. Which tells me that Nintendo is indeed invested in the series and its success. Also to clarify here, Rune Factory is a spin off of Story of Seasons for any that are unaware.

I think the biggest downsides to this character are that it is not heavily requested within the community and that the character is not immediately associated with action games. I don't personally believe that Marvelous spirits are a negative in this scenario. Because those spirits were promotional, so timing was necessary. So really it just tells me that Marvelous has been negotiated with already and are interested in Smash. And that could (or could not) lead to something else down the line.

To be honest I think the biggest reason people don't think Farmer is likely is because the Smash community doesn't talk about the series/character as much as others. But I think that has more to do with the type of gamers that will frequent online forums to discuss their favorite game, the fact that Farmer is not an immediately obvious choice for those not intimately familiar with the series (basically it isn't a series with much action), and compounding those points is the cyclical nature of Smash speculation discussions. Basically other characters are more obvious to people, so they get talked about more, and then characters that get talked about more seem more likely and thus get talked about even more. And people also tend to get more excited about and thus talk more about characters for whom moveset potential is more obvious. But as we have seen with characters like Terry, a character doesn't need to be on the overall Smash community's radar to make it in (and when they do will mostly be rationalized as if they were always viewed as likely once they do). I guarantee if Farmer ever gets in, people will talk about it as though the pick always made sense, despite the fact that no one seems to think it is likely to ever happen. And we all certainly know by now that Sakurai can make any character works as far as movesets are concerned.

Anyway, point is Farmer has a lot going for him/her and I think is a lot more likely DLC candidate than most give them credit for. Despite this I'm not going to go over 35% because I don't really feel comfortable going much higher than that for any but the most obvious characters and Farmer is certainly not a lock. And we have definitely seen that, while not the end all be all reason for inclusion, popularity amongst the fanbase can certainly play a part, and in this case not one likely to help Farmer's chances.

Want - 100% - Personally Farmer is one of the few 3rd party characters that I'm really pulling for at this point. With the other, Bomberman, sadly being an AT.

Abstaining from predictions

 

[RoboFist]

The Only Fighter Name More Generic Than Hero

Chance: 40%

(Actually I’m a bit out of the loop here. Is this thread exclusively for the Fighter Pass #5 slot? Or are we also taking into consideration any post-Pass DLC? Because that obviously would make an enormous difference in my rating.)

I’m seeing a lot of the same arguments that, in my opinion, hold absolutely no water at all: "They’re from an old franchise", "they lack a fighting moveset", etc. I’m kind of astonished that these are the hills we’re willing to die on in this post-Ridley, post-Isabelle, post-Plant, post-Banjo, post-Terry world we’re living in, but whatever helps y’all sleep at night.

Marvelous is a ridiculously popular publisher/developer in Japan, and the fact that we haven’t seen a rep from them is actually a lot more shocking than the Farmers getting in. Harvest Moon/Story of Seasons was a very big deal for Nintendo (especially during the DS era) and as many have mentioned, these games really did pioneer the more casual “farming simulator” genre that has become so dang popular.

I honestly view them as “honorary Nintendo characters” in the same vein as Simon, Mega Man, and Banjo. If they don’t make it into Ultimate, I can almost 99% see them getting into Smash 7 in some capacity (either a fighter, Assist Trophy, or in the background of their own stage).

Unfortunately, I do think that Villager’s inclusion dampens Farmer’s chances quite a bit, if only because I’m not sure if Sakurai would want to revisit a moveset style that similar. I have no doubt he could do it and make it work really well, but considering how many first- and third-party characters he would want to squeeze in to fulfill his “make as many dreams a reality” promise, I just don’t know if they would take priority, you know?

Then again, crazier picks have happened and the fanbase is very big, so we’ll see.

Want: 60%

I’m not necessarily a fan of farming simulators, but I have the box art for Harvest Moon 64 imprinted on my brain from when I first saw it as a wee little tot. That backwards cap, that bandana-wearing pupper, that look of cold hard determination on the Farmer’s face as he runs off to work. I’d want him in for no other reason than nostalgia, honestly.

Plus, it would inevitably give us a female Farmer alt, which would be fun. And their moveset would have to incorporate that dog, right? Frankly, I don’t think Smash is capable of having too many dogs. Any character who comes with a dog friend immediately gets a want score of over 50%.

Nominate: Thrall x5

 

[Icedragonadam]

Farmer

Chance: 20%

Got to admit, this is an underestimated character choice. It definitely has the Video Game history, but I'm not sure if Sakurai could make a moveset with the Harvest Moon series for a being mainly a non-violent series. But he did made a moveset for Villager so anything's possible.

Want: 10%

I did play the base Gamecube one. But I'm not interested in the concept of the PC being a playable fighter TBH.

League of Legends Prediction: 3.22%

Nominate Sol Badguy x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

So, this has been a question of mine for a while, figured it was a good moment to pose it. Who owns No More Heroes? Is it Marvelous, Grasshopper, or Suda himself?

(Actually I’m a bit out of the loop here. Is this thread exclusively for the Fighter Pass #5 slot? Or are we also taking into consideration any post-Pass DLC? Because that obviously would make an enormous difference in my rating.)

Technically it's assumed that ratings are for all DLC. But it's very broad, people have given ratings specifying their different assumptions of what that entails (I.E. if you think DLC will reach 100 characters and you rate based on that vs. someone who assumed the FP would be all we'd get).

And nothing's stopping anyone from giving a score purely for FP5 either. The only thing I don't count is when a score is stated to be for a future game.

 

[Deleted member]

Abstaining on HM here as I don't know nearly enough to give my opinion on a character from it.

Nominations: Concept: First Parties after the Pass x5

League of Legends prediction: 10%

 

[Wunderwaft]

Farmer

Chance: 40%
Harvest Moon is a series with a closely tied history to Nintendo. It's a farm simulation game that inspired a whole genre. It dates way back since 1996 on the SNES. A legacy like that shouldn't be underestimated. Marvelous has been on a very good relationship with Nintendo, they've been building up the library of many Nintendo consoles with exclusives. Wit how important Marvelous has been to Nintendo it seems simple to say that they would get a rep in the future DLC, and Harvest Moon seems like a really strong candidate in that regard.

Want: 70%
I love the Harvest Moon series and the Rune Factory series as well. It's a very fun and chill game series that allows you to live the life of a farmer that you always wanted. Now personally I want someone from Rune Factory much more since that series has actual combat, but the regular farmer from Harvest Moon is good enough for me as well.


League of Legends rep: 8.21%
Nomination: Steve x5

 

[Artix]

Farmer

Chance: 20%
This is an interesting one. The Story of Seasons series has a huge history with Nintendo due to it being mostly Nintendo-exclusive and Harvest Moon is definitely one of the most popular series back in the day. However, we kinda already had a representation of the farm simulation games in the form of Animal Crossing with Villager. But I can definitely see this happen, not as Challenger Pack 5, but on a post-Fighter's Pass as it had the legacy and huge connection to Nintendo on it's back and Marvelous seems to be in a good relationship with Nintendo now so who knows, the Farmer might get in Smash.

Want: Abstain
I haven't really played Harvest Moon or any of it's games for me to really give a want rating.

Prediction:
League of Legends - 6.31%

Nomination:
Ryo Hazuki x5

 

[Ornl]

So, this has been a question of mine for a while, figured it was a good moment to pose it. Who owns No More Heroes? Is it Marvelous, Grasshopper, or Suda himself?

Good question. I think that associating No more Heroes with the Marvelous property is a confusion. Marvelous was first the publisher in Japan, then additionally the publisher for Microsoft and PS4 Europe (Travis Strikes Again), then eventually had the monopoly of publishing (No More Heroes III). But nothing more..
I don't think that Farmer and Travis are direct competitors.

 

[3BitSaurus]

I see your point, but Bayonetta is now being published by Nintendo while DMC is a third party with it's latest game not even being on Nintendo consoles. Bayo getting the edge over her longer-standing counterpart kind of makes sense in that context.

Story of Seasons, meanwhile, is being published by Nintendo in Europe and the last 2 games have both included Nintendo crossover content. Stardew Valley is a huge game, but not one with either the legacy or the Nintendo connection that Story of Seasons has.

Honestly, I'd be fine with either. It just seems like SoS is much more likely.

amageish beat me to it, but yeah, Bayonetta wouldn't have gotten in before Dante if Nintendo wasn't putting down cash on Bayo 2 and needed to promote it.

I guess it really boils down to how big the imitator gets or how different it is from its inspiration. Like, we also got Final Fantasy over Dragon Quest, but Final Fantasy was always very differentiated and ended up bigger than DQ. Same with, say, Undertale over Touhou, while UT has taken inspiration from Touhou it's largely its own thing. But I don't think Stardew Valley has gotten nearly as massive as it would need to be to stop being "that indie Harvest Moon clone".

Hmm, maybe I'm phrasing it wrong. The idea here isn't "Stardew > SoS", but rather that SoS is very easily threatened in all sides. If we get a farming sim, why SoS aside from legacy? If we get more third parties, why Marvelous? If we get Marvelous, why SoS? If a more casual-catering game, why not Minecraft? If a pick that's popular in Japan, why not Touhou or several other options? And so on.

The point is that SoS does have legacy and big ties to Nintendo... but that's about it. SoS has some popularity in Japan, but nowhere near DQ levels. And its demand in the core Smash community is not big enough to warrant a BK-esque pick. This isn't like the Banjo-Steve situation where most people agreed it was one or the other if we got a Microsoft rep, but more like a Klonoa/Morrigan situation where the character has some legacy and support, but there are several candidates bigger than them - both in and out of their respective companies.

 

[Ornl]

If we get a farming sim, why SoS aside from legacy? If we get more third parties, why Marvelous? If we get Marvelous, why SoS? If a more casual-catering game, why not Minecraft? If a pick that's popular in Japan, why not Touhou or several other options? And so on.

Vast question. Here is my first point of view, there may be others. The old Natsume and the new Marvelous are for me a similar position to Koei-Tecmo and Level 5. Each has a mini-content in Ultimate (Fatal Frame / Eight Hero / Demon x Machina), and worked for at least one other series already represented in Ultimate. Concerning the old Natsume, there is Kirby. Concerning the new Marvelous, there are Pokemon, Dragon Quest and Monster Hunter. Personally, I would welcome the 3 companies as Nintendo's sisters.
For me, Smash Bros should first take care of his family. The family links with the previous third-party series are more or less obvious:
- Nintendo welcomed Sonic.
- Nintendo will adopt Bayonetta after her integration. Then PlatinumGames developed Star Fox games.
- Smash Bros could hope for a gradual return of SMT / Persona to Nintendo.
- Smash Bros may have hoped for a gradual return of Metal Gear to Nintendo, whatever the result today.
- Nintendo has launched Megaman, Street Fighter, Final Fantasy, Dragon Quest, Castlevania, Bomberman... And Ninja Gaiden, Professor Layton, Yo-Kai Watch, Story of Seasons...
- Capcom developed Mario, Zelda and Kirby games.
- Bamco developed a Star Fox game, and develops Ultimate.
- Banjo was chosen and not the Microsoft rep Steve nor Master Chief, or the Western platformer rep Rayman. Rare developed Donkey Kong and Star Fox games.
- Terry has a specific connection to Smash Bros history.
- UNDERTALE was a series favored by Nintendo, and Toby Fox works for Game Freak.
... But I would like that Ultimate remains mainly a Nintendo Museum. Story of Seasons smells of a big Nintendo odor.

 

[DaUsername]

The Farmer (Formerly Chuck)
Chance: 10%
Well, he is a video game character, and he's from a somewhat well-known franchise. He just doesn't seem that likely for Smash. There isn't really any demand for him, and his gimmick as already kinda taken by Villager.
Want: N/A

LOL prediction: 7%
Noms: Crash Bandicoot x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Hmm, maybe I'm phrasing it wrong. The idea here isn't "Stardew > SoS", but rather that SoS is very easily threatened in all sides. If we get a farming sim, why SoS aside from legacy? If we get more third parties, why Marvelous? If we get Marvelous, why SoS? If a more casual-catering game, why not Minecraft? If a pick that's popular in Japan, why not Touhou or several other options? And so on.

The point is that SoS does have legacy and big ties to Nintendo... but that's about it. SoS has some popularity in Japan, but nowhere near DQ levels. And its demand in the core Smash community is not big enough to warrant a BK-esque pick. This isn't like the Banjo-Steve situation where most people agreed it was one or the other if we got a Microsoft rep, but more like a Klonoa/Morrigan situation where the character has some legacy and support, but there are several candidates bigger than them - both in and out of their respective companies.

If we get a farming sim, we will get SoS precisely because of that legacy. I mean, can you think of any other ones?

If we get more third parties, why Marvelous? Well, why not? Remember, we got SNK before a big one like Ubisoft, I don't see any reason why we couldn't get Marvelous.

If we get Marvelous, why SoS? That's a great point. You could argue that Travis Touchdown is much more likely, and I'd agree. However, they're both franchises with their pros and cons so it's not like there's no way one gets in over the other; we aren't dealing with a Cloud situation, it's more like Mega Man and Street Fighter where you could see either getting in first.

As for the latter two, I think everyone knows that Sakurai doesn't pick based on criteria like that. And it's a really faulty argument, like you could totally say "If you wanted a fighter, why not Heihachi?", or "If you wanted a JRPG character, why not Sora?", but we still got Terry and Joker.

And I don't see the comparison with Darkstalkers and especially Klonoa. Unlike those two, we're talking about a series with tons of games and decades worth of legacy, we're talking about a series that's the codifier of its genre, we're talking about a series that doesn't have that much competition within its company or its genre, and remember, we're talking about a series that's still alive.