Rate Their Chances- Smash Ultimate Day 340 - Lara Croft (Tomb Raider)

PapillonXtreme

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Reimu

Chance: 0.1%
Want: 1%

I've been dreading this day, precisely because I knew I was going to come and be the dissenting voice. So here is an essay on why I think Reimu has a practically impossible chance of being in Smash:

The Games have Never Been Officially Localised Outside of Japan:
Point the first, and the biggy. It doesn't matter how big and huge the game is in Japan, the franchise has only very recently been made available on Steam, and even then is only available in Japanese. Zun has been very hesitant to have the games translated in any official capacity, and so therefore relied on fan translations, which is all well and good. However it does create a barrier. The vast majority of any sales that Touhou has gotten in the west before the appearance on Steam will have been pirated copies, and now the series is on Steam, it requires an additional patch to be playable, which I'm sure is easy, but certainly doesn't make it appealing to try out the series.

This feels like people have swung too far the other way on a "western character is inevitable". I do think Western companies are harder for Nintendo to deal with, but I also think the Western market is too valuable to do something as reckless as throw in a character with no official releases. Sales data for the Switch show that Japan is the second biggest single market, but 2/3 of all Switches have been sold out of Japan. And no Touhou isn't like Dragon Quest and Fatal Fury/King of Fighters. Both of those games have been repeatedly made available in the west, and their impact on their respective genres is undeniable.

Secondly, Sakurai has voiced regret at putting Lucas in Smash once he found out that Mother 3 wasn't going to be localised outside of Japan. And since then, we haven't had any playable characters in Smash that have come from games that haven't been localised outside of Japan.


No Official Touhou Game has ever appeared on a Nintendo console:
Obviously Antimony of Common Flowers is coming at some point, but when the future pass content was decided on, there were no official Touhou games on Switch. Yes there have been fanmade Touhou games on Switch, such as Lunar Nights, but even then sales have only passed about 100,000 copies, which pales in comparison to a lot of the indie characters that have appeared. With games like Undertale and Shovel Knight being million sellers on Nintendo platforms.

Even Final Fantasy and Persona had appeared on Nintendo consoles before, even if their playable characters hadn't had prominent roles.

And I know that Touhou music has appeared in some games on Nintendo consoles, but that's still very different when your main franchise still has not graced the platform in any official capacity.

Touhou hasn't had that gaming crossover hit:
This is another one I think is quite vital. Touhou has had huge cultural impact in certain areas. The music is hugely popular, it's a poster child of Dōjin culture and hell, I saw the McRoll video back in 2008 (probably my only exposure to Touhou outside of Smash speculation before now (shout at me later)). But it lacks a tangible foothold in the mainstream gaming consciousness. Many other people have said that Touhou has been embraced by it's own community, the anime community because of its general aesthetic and the dōjin community just based off the seriously impressive amounts of fan content that have been made. It doesn't have that huge seller. Hell as far as I can tell, Zun only prints ~10,000 copies of the games when they sell them at comiket, and the rest of the sales are obviously impossible to track because they're PC downloads, but very basic Steam data shows that no single official game has sold over 100,000 copies there, with most of them only having about 20,000 copies sold. Obviously the games could have sold a lot more elsewhere, it would still have to be a market increase of 50 to reach the ~5 million sales that Undertale have on Steam. Not impossible, but based on just how omnipresent Undertale was, I very much am sceptical.

If I thought Touhou had it's moment in the mainstream, outside of memes and music, I'd change my tune on this, but none of the games have the penetration that Shovel Knight or Undertale have had.

And call me old fashioned, but I do think overall imprint on the gaming community far outweighs Touhou's collective importance to dōjin and the anime communities. Even if neither can be completely ignored.

Bullet Hell is a *very* niche genre, even in Japan:
We talk a lot about representing different genres, and this one feels really sketchy to me. Out of all the genres not in Smash currently, from FPS to moba to RTS and visual novel, do we really think bullet hell is next? Yes Sakurai joined HAL because of playing a shoot 'em up they made, but Touhou isn't the clear choice here. Contra and Metal Slug exist, Ikaruga, Radiant Silvergun, Sin and Punishment, Gunstar Heroes (god how good were Treasure?). I know they don't all fill the exact same niche as Touhou, but if we're using Gall Force as why Touhou should be in Smash, then I see no issue in reaching back to shoot 'em ups for companies like Konami, SNK and Treasure who all already have content in Smash Ultimate. And all arguably have more mainstream cache world wide.

Other (arguably) bigger indie characters haven't managed to make it playable:
People frequently say "well Sans is a costume and Undertale heavily draws from Touhou, so Reimu must be able to make the jump!". Which I think fundamentally denies the fact that Undertale is bigger than Touhou in almost every regard. And I know I might get some push back on that, but if Shantae, Shovel Knight and Sans can't be playable, I do not think there any other indie characters that will make the jump. Maybe we'll see a Hollow Knight or Celeste costumes. Hell, Sans opens the door for a Reimu costume including music. But I think, particularly, Shovel Knight and Sans and their impact on the indie gaming community is far larger and more immediately felt on a worldwide level, that it makes Reimu's chances feel far far lesser.

As for want, the music would be cool? But I judge my Smash wants on a three pronged basis, Nintendo importance, gaming importance and world wide impact (which does crossover with my chance scores significantly), and I don't think Touhou ticks any of those boxes frankly. Whilst some Touhou music is cool, I see absolutely no reason why Reimu should make it in before franchises like Resident Evil, Tales, Tekken, Ninja Gaiden, Ace Attorney, Professor Layton, Overwatch, Crash, Doom or many, many others.
...Wow. Coming from the guy who said Saber was impossible, this is to be expected.

Anyways...

Reimu Hakurei

Chance: 30%
I personally think Reimu has a shot to get in Smash. Touhou is very popular in Japan and with Sans out of the picture, that makes her the only one running for indie rep. But I do admit that she's a literal who outside of Japan, but does it really matter when we have Terry Bogard in there? Plus, with the announcement of more DLC Fighters, Shovel Knight and Shantae are back in the running and Reimu has to face them. But other than that, I think she has a great chance of making it in Smash.

Want: 50%
Now, I have played a little bit of Touhou and I'm already liking the character. As for Smash, she will definitely bring something new to the table, incorporating some of her Spell Cards from the game as her specials. I do think she's far from impossible as that guy said and Touhou is one great franchise that should be in Smash.

Prediction:
Jin Kazama - 13.86%


Nomination:
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x5
 

BowserKing

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Reimu

Chance: 25%. Some arguments above have some great pointers about why we can/cant include them, so she could have a chance. Competition is still the number 1 concern, but there is a chance she could get passed it.

Want: 50%. She could be a fun character to play as. And there is also the soundtrack, which would be catchy.

Noms: 2 for Earthworm Jim and 3 for Urbosa
 

Nquoid

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I just want to point out that Antinomy of Common Flowers has an official English translation. Sure it's just one game, but it's an official translation nevertheless.
Ahh really? Fair enough. I didn't dive too much into the official spin-offs. Although I did check Steam and it said only in Japanese. Does Zun share the rights on those or they wholly owned by him?
 
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Wunderwaft

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Ahh really? Fair enough. I didn't dive too much into the official spin-offs. Although I did check Steam and it said only in Japanese. Does Zun share the rights on those or they wholly owned by him?
IIRC the official translation was added a month or two after the game's release on Steam, so ZUN probably forgot to remove the only in Japanese label. As for the rights, the official spin-offs and translation were co-developed with Twilight Frontier, but ZUN still retains ownership. Hence why a character like Suika originated in one of the official spin-offs but still appears in later official games.
 
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Yeah, I'm abstaining for this one. I still do not have a solid grasp of just how popular/succesfull this series really is over the entire gaming landscape, so I don't want to give some dishonest chance score.

Tho I do have to say Neosonic97 Neosonic97 , you're on thin ice with that 100% there. I don't want to rain on your parade but a reminder that nothing should ever be guaranteed when it comes to Smash. I stil remember when some people were handing out 100s to the likes of Shadow, Geno and Isaac before Isabelle and the great deconfirmation of November happened. Getting your hopes up this up will only burn you much harder if it turns out, despite all they had going for them, your favorite character doesn't actually make it in after all. Trust me, I've been there with Bandana Dee. I'm not encouraging you to ajust your rating but I'm just warning ya.

As for want, 0%. Neither the Touhou franchise nor Reimu herself do anything for me personally and there are other third-parties I'd much rather see. She's probably also firm Hollow Knight competition.

Jin: 6.17%
Rayman x5
 
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Jomosensual

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Well this is the most split I've ever seen a day. Excited to see what the scores end up being. Never seen someone get multiple 100s and multiple 0s in the same day before
 

Sari

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Reimu

Chance: 20%
I think we are bound to get a playable indie character in Smash at some point. With Shovel Knight being an AT and Sans a mii costume, I think both of them are out of the running. As far as popular indie names go the only notable ones left I can name off the top of my head are Steve, Quote, and Reimu (and Shantae if you think spirits still have a chance).

NobleClamtasm NobleClamtasm and Nquoid Nquoid pretty much nailed what Reimu has going for and against her respectively. Touhou is fairly well-known around the globe and is especially popular in Japan with Sakurai supposedly being a fan of the shoot em' up genre. That said though, it is still a relatively niche series that primarily relies on fan translations to be where it is today. I can easily see Reimu/Touhou being represented through a mii costume though I am not as confident as them being an actual character with indies as a whole still having to compete with bigger names.

Want: Abstain
Never got into Touhou so I won't really comment on this. There are still a lot of other indies I'd want to see make it in first though.

Jin chance prediction: 11.73% (decent chances though Heihachi is a big hurdle)

Nominations:
Kyo Kusanagi x5

The main difference is that you posted any old Touhou Song, while the songs I posted all share one thing in common: They're Reimu's theme songs.
Not sure if this was meant as a jab but I chose what I thought were the most popular Touhou songs to represent the series as a whole.

But I do admit that she's a literal who outside of Japan, but does it really matter when we have Terry Bogard in there?
Even when putting aside my own SNK bias I can safely say that Terry is nowhere near a literal who. NEO GEO was very big back in the day and is still really big in places like Latin America and China. The NEO GEO games on Switch have also sold extremely well. Fatal Fury has also crossed over with a lot of more mainstream series like Street Fighter via Capcom vs SNK and recently Tekken through Geese Howard in Tekken 7.
 

Neosonic97

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Reimu
Not sure if this was meant as a jab but I chose what I thought were the most popular Touhou songs to represent the series as a whole.
Septette for the Dead Princess is the odd one out there. I'd have gone for Solar Sect of Mystic Wisdom or Border of Life myself (Or Flowering Night).
 

3BitSaurus

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Reimu
Chance: 15%
Wow, I finally get to dish out a score bigger than 1% since more DLC were announced!

That said... there's very little I could add to the conversation at this point, even more so due to my relative inexperience with Touhou... I'd just like to reiterate that if Shovel Knight, Shantae and Undertale are considered out of the running, then Touhou is arguably the indie game with the best shot right now. However, it's hard to say whether or not indies will even get a playable character in Ultimate, especially one whose fanbase is arguably even more regionally restricted than the deconfirmed independent games. That's why I'm not giving too high of a score.

To offer a counterpoint to Nquoid Nquoid : I really don't see other shmups making it before Touhou. Contra was inactive for a long time and its latest release is looking to be a big dumpster fire, from what I've seen - aside from the fact that Konami still has other iconic properties besides it. As for Metal Slug, it's also not the most active and... (sigh) there is no way that Metal Slug is going to be added before KoF or SamSho, and I say this as a longtime MS fan. It's simply not what SNK is known best for.

Overall, Touhou just seems more viable, plus all that's needed is ZUN's approval.

Want: Abstain - as I said, I feel like I have too little practical experience to judge.
I will say, though, the fan movesets I've seen look really good. Especially the ones involving a grazing mechanic.

Predictions
Jin: 12.4%

Nominations
[Rerate] Sora x 5
 
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Exiliify

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Chance: 100%

I know I might be overrating her, but I wouldn’t do it without reasons. She is arguably one of the most iconic female protagonists left that’s also the mascot of the series. Known as the Queen of Indies, she has a history, popularity, legacy, cultural impact, impact on gaming in Japan that no indie can rival . She also has a variety of mechanics from the bullet hell and fighting games only she can bring. Including a variety of moves from the fighting games as well. With Shantae, Shovel Knight, and now Sans in smash already, she is arguably the last and biggest indie character left. Definitely a character that has more going for her as DLC fighter than against her. I acknowledge that there is a chance she may not get in but I also believe she is too iconic at this point that she will get in eventually. While it’s possible she may get a costume, but it would be a waste of a character with so much potential as a fighter. There are other Touhou and indie characters more fitting as mii costumes than Reimu. While she does face strong competition, I still agree with neosonic. Reimu is inevitable at this point.

Want: 100%
Been my most wanted character for smash since I got into the Touhou series. I will continue to support and push for her inclusion as a fighter.
 
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LMFAO at these chance scores, I thought I was gonna be called out for overrating.

Chance: 20%
Touhou is one of the forefathers, if not the forefather, of indies, and while it didn't spawn a revolution like Cave Story, it found massive success of its own. It also (correct me if I'm wrong) created the bullet hell and remains the only big name there (sorry Ikaruga). Even if you don't consider bullet hells a genre but a subgenre of the shoot-em-up, that's still kind of a big deal, and I'm sorry to say that games like Gradius, R-Type, and Life Force are not getting characters. Touhou also has the advantage of being massively popular in Japan and mildly recognizable elsewhere - though it's no Fatal Fury, I'd say its renown is proportional to the scale of the games.

Now for the negatives: we're still dealing with Indies yo. Nothing has led me to believe that anti-corporation ZUN will agree to a character in Smash Bros. And we don't know if Sakurai thinks indie characters should even be considered. Shovel Knight is an AT, Shantae is a Spirit, and Sakurai decided to negotiate for Sans as a Mii Costume - and announce him the same day as additional fighters, no less. I'll be honest and say that I believe there's a ceiling for Indies, and it's just beneath fighter. Now hypothetically, if Indies could be fighters, Reimu just has a ****-ton of competition. Shovel Knight has more demand, Shantae does too, Undertale could technically get a rep (though I think it's unlikely), and Quote has just as much if not more significance to the industry. Sure, for Fighter Pass #5 Shovel Knight, Shantae and Undertale might not be a problem, but even if they wanted to go with an indie (a big if) at best you can say it's 50/50 with Quote - who is also owned by a company instead of an individual and has more links to Nintendo.

Want: 70%
I enjoy me some Touhou. Haven't played a lot, don't ask me about the story cause I skipped it, I just like dodging bullets like a maniac. When I played games on PC, which was a long time ago, Touhou was one of my go-tos. But more importantly, Touhou has the credentials to get in Smash, and Reimu would have a great moveset.

Noms: Prince of Persia x5

Prediction: As always, Jin Kazama will be overrated, this time with a 14%
 

Nquoid

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Ok... what the hell is with all of these 100% chance scores on a Japan exclusive character? I thought Freddi Fish was bad...

GoodGrief741 GoodGrief741 you just took the words out of my mouth.

Rating coming soon.
The amount of <5% scores and 100% scores definitely mean a fair few people in this thread are going to be eating crow by the end of Smash Ultimate's lifetime....
 
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Ok... what the hell is with all of these 100% chance scores on a Japan exclusive character? I thought Freddi Fish was bad...

GoodGrief741 GoodGrief741 you just took the words out of my mouth.

Rating coming soon.
Probably people coming over from the Reimu thread. Happens with some characters, but I haven't seen it this bad since Celica's day.
 
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Let's just push this one out of the way.

Reimu Hakurei, the Shrine Maiden of Overinflated Scores
Chance: 5%
Want: 10%

No, she is not a 100% guarantee, people! My score for her has only increased by 2% the last time I rated Reimu. I'm going to start listing some factors for the chance score I gave her, that I feel is appropriate.

+Popular and very successful indie giant in Japan
-And only in Japan. (Exclusivity)
-Never appeared on a Nintendo console (until a supposed Switch port was announced according to Neosonic97 Neosonic97 )
-Lots of indie competition
-Literally who to anyone outside of the Touhou fanbase or Japan in general

Now I don't hate Reimu or Touhou, but I feel she would be a very disappointing inclusion if she were to make it as our indie rep over characters like Shovel Knight (DC'ed), Shantae, Hollow Knight, etc;
especially if she's exclusive to one country in the world, and has only a small following outside of said country. Attack me all you want, just like Saber's day. I will ignore it unless you bring up a good point.

Jin: 6.32% (I doubt we're getting another fighting game character so soon. Plus, he's not the main character.)

Untitled Goose x5
 
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Extremmefan

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Ok... what the hell is with all of these 100% chance scores on a Japan exclusive character? I thought Freddi Fish was bad...
In my defense I only gave 80%. Giving 100% means it's a lock, and honestly no one's a lock to me.
But seeing so many scores under 50% kind of has me curious, not that the arguments for them are anything I didn't expect so I'd just assume this place likes having a critical view.
(Edit: ... and I just realized that's basically no different from back in Sm4sh DLC's speculation days, which was the last time I was here for anything short of updating my profile)
 
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Troykv

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Ok... what the hell is with all of these 100% chance scores on a Japan exclusive character? I thought Freddi Fish was bad...

GoodGrief741 GoodGrief741 you just took the words out of my mouth.

Rating coming soon.
I'm surprised too; I mean, I don't think Reimu it's impossible. but 100% ratings should be reserved for the very very special cases; and the only one I can imagine it's Inkling (that never actually got a pre-release re-rate because the character was annouced even before the game itself was properly show)
 

Jomosensual

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In my defense I only gave 80%. Giving 100% means it's a lock, and honestly no one's a lock to me.
But seeing so many scores under 50% kind of has me curious, not that the arguments for them are anything I didn't expect so I'd just assume this place likes having a critical view.
(Edit: ... and I just realized that's basically no different from back in Sm4sh DLC's speculation days, which was the last time I was here for anything short of updating my profile)
I think a big part of it was that there were some really high chance scores for the base roster and a lot of those characters didn't pan out(Rex, Issac, Shadow, and I think Springman too) so as a result we've moved back the other way. Also, DLC is naturally a bit more hard to get picked for because you have to buy that character instead of a game, so you can't just throw in like the 6th most important Kirby character in there.

For the 100%, yeah that's really wild. The only character I would have felt comfortable slapping a 100 on would have been Ken during the base roster, but that would have been because he was the worst kept secret in Smash.
 
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Exiliify

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No character will ever be 100%. This thread allows us to express our own opinions and rate characters. If people rate their most wanted as 100% chance then let them be. If people rate a character as 0 then let them.
 

Extremmefan

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No character will ever be 100%. This thread allows us to express our own opinions and rate characters. If people rate their most wanted as 100% chance then let them be. If people rate a character as 0 then let them.
Difference being that there's many 100%s and not even a single flatout 0% (closest being 0.1% and that required heavy justification, more than any of the highest votes so far).
It's fine to be positive, but being biased is another matter altogether, not to mention time is another factor.
 

Wunderwaft

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And I thought I might have been pushing it with the 45% rating haha. The only scenario I can see myself giving a character a 100% rating is if they're an extremely obvious character that has no hurdles like Inkling for the base roster or a character that has a REALLY credible leak backing them up. Honestly there isn't any character right now that fits this criteria.
 

Nquoid

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Difference being that there's many 100%s and not even a single flatout 0% (closest being 0.1% and that required heavy justification, more than any of the highest votes so far).
It's fine to be positive, but being biased is another matter altogether, not to mention time is another factor.
It's just dawned on me that I wrote 1000+ words on Reimu. Do I need to take time off from speculation?
 

SKX31

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The Reim of the Game! (Reimu)

Chance: 12.5 %

Well, indie, indie indie. I'd raise Reimu to around 30-50 if Sans or another indie had made it as an actual character. Trying to find a unique comment is going to be really difficult. Still - one thing is worth mentioning here. Touhou has a kind of weird position as influential yet still firmly niche. The memetic days of "UN OWEN WAS HER" didn't result in a popularity explosion and that might've been the best chance Touhou's had of gaining a mainstream foothold. Now, I'm not saying those memetic days didn't help Touhou - I'm saying that out of the 13 million views on McRoll I'm pretty sure only a minority read the description and found out the song was from Touhou. And yes, that video was my introduction to Touhou. I don't regret that at all.

Now, I get that ZUN is incredibly passionate about Touhou, but his (apparently) anti-corporate stance does hurt the Smash chances. Simply by virtue of him having to negotiate for a full character - and that means dealing with not just Sakurai, but also Nintendo. Yes, Sakurai and Toby Fox struck a friendship, but that resulted in a much simpler Mii Costume. Going all out for a full character's going to be much more difficult. I could see a Reimu (or Touhou) Mii Costume, absolutely, but would that be Bullet Hell?

Still, there are some positives to be had here. Reimu, I'd imagine, has a very, very wide potential moveset pool. She's also representing a very unique genre and a significant influencer on the underground indie scene. Even though she's far from alone (having Qoute as competition) Reimu does stand out. Also, as ever, the music would be intriguing.

Abstain on want, because I have zero playing experience with Touhou. I'm aware of it, but never bothered really. Although I'd pay megadollars if Sakurai and ZUN managed the impossible and got McRoll, Ronald MacDonald and all, fully into Ultimate.

Noms: Lara Croft x5

Predictions: Jin Kazama 15 %
 
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NobleClamtasm

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People need to get over the fact that these ratings are a matter of opinion. Someone gave 100% on a character you disagree with? Let them face the consequences later. The only person who has the right to criticise any score is Sakurai himself since he's the ONLY one who knows who's in and who isn't.

Difference being that there's many 100%s and not even a single flatout 0% (closest being 0.1% and that required heavy justification, more than any of the highest votes so far).
It's fine to be positive, but being biased is another matter altogether, not to mention time is another factor.
Isn't the point of this thread to guage how the community views certain characters? If that's the case, then being biased is a requirement for this exercise. As long as someone is able to thoroughly explain their viewpoint, every opinion should be valid.
 
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Reimu Hakurei; The queen of Bullet Hell

Chance: 25%
Touhou is a massive franchise in Japan and is the quintessential bullet hell franchise plus it even invented the bullet hell genre IIRC so even if it isn't a cultural phenomenon in the west it certainly is overseas kind of like Hero except more extreme (in terms of unfamiliarity in the west) but as we've all seen boundaries like familiarity from one end of the world to the other isn't much of a problem. Sure, It certainly helps with third parties being known around the world but it isn't an absolute necessity.

Though one thing I can see standing in it's way is that it's an indie franchise and we don't know how Sakurai feels about Indies being made playable and how well ZUN would cooperate with Nintendo in making Reimu a playable character as IIRC ZUN has an anti-corporation stance which might hold him back from wanting a Touhou character playable. Though if all goes well and both ZUN and Nintendo cooperate well I could see Reimu being added but it is a small chance.

Want: 40%
I really find Reimu's classically Japanese design interesting and appealing so I would be fine with Reimu and I feel like Indies should be represented in the roster somehow and as the three I would've gone with are already disconfirmed (Shantae, Shovel Knight and Sans) Reimu feels like the best way to represent Indies nowadays so I would be absolutely fine with Reimu.

Prediction: Jin 15%
Nomination: Concept: First parties after the Fighters Pass x5
 

Nquoid

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Touhou is a massive franchise in Japan and is the quintessential bullet hell franchise plus it even invented the bullet hell genre IIRC
Seen this one a lot, Batsugun in '93 is seen as providing the template for bullet hell and then the people who made that (and formed Cave) followed it up with DonPachi in '95. So Touhou in '96 is definitley an early example but did not create the genre.
 
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Ornl

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Reimu Hakurei
I understand the interest of paying tribute to the biggest indie series in Japan, but I don't understand how this could attract Western Nintendo players. From my western point of view, I first think the Indie games as having the particular interest of being able to create a "bridge" between the Japanese series in Smash Bros and the Western world. The policy of Nintendo is to have a great openness towards the western indies series. So, I don't think that Touhou can be privileged because the series is very popular in Japan. If Touhou is master in Japan, it still remains behind Minecraft (who was independent). And Shantae was probably the # 1 indie of the ballot. And Sans was probably the # 1 indie of requests from Western fans that Sakurai had already complained about. And DOOM also has indie origins, whose name is attached to its author John Carmack, that the series is gaining more and more points from Nintendo and the Smash community. I don't think Shantae, Shovel Knight and Sans increase the Reimu's chances (5% for me), but instead increase the Western games/series chances.
 
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Reimu:
Chance: 0%
There's just too much stacked against this character. First of all, lets look at the indy reps she would have to contend with, as I would be shocked if we got more than 1 rep. The big ones I can think of are Hollow Knight and Shantae, both of which are significantly more well known than Reimu(at least in North America). Shantae is soft deconfirmed from a spirit, so if you want to, you can ignore her. But what puts her past Hollow Knight? Hollow Knight was at one point(and maybe still is) the best selling indy game on the switch's E-Shop. Hollow Knight is getting a sequel game too, granted it doesn't star the knight. I don't know if it would be considered a spoiler or not for me to say who you play as is, so I won't say who it is, but they would be a good DLC option for promotion. We also don't even know that an indy character is going to be playable. There is also a pontential issues with moveset potential. Just shooting bullets does not sound like a good moveset to me. I saw someone mentioning her spell cards, but I couldn't find out what they did, so I'm leaving them out for now. She would be a horrible choice for the last fighters pass slot and would not sell in west at all

Want: 0%


Noms: A League of Legends rep x5
 

Extremmefan

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Laser Cow (geddit? Ray + Moo? Haha, I ruined the joke. That's the actual joke.)

Chance: She's really among the final 3 when it comes to indies (with Frisk as the curveball candidate): Quote, Reimu, and to some extent Gunvolt are the last standing. Reimu's series is almost comically large and it has a huge, new potential fanbase that'd earn loads of cash. In Japan, she would break the internet 10 times over. She is highly desired by a lot, and I mean, a lot of people both inside and outside of the fanbase. But at the same time, official releases on Nintendo consoles or in the west are rare as hell, and there's probably a lot more factors going on. I will give her a 50%, I see her as a perfect coinflip character. I have no good stance on her inclusion or not.

Want: 75%, but it's mostly for buddies on Twitter because Reimu's Smash Twitter is p. cool. That's technically not a legitimate reason, but oh well, she'd have a cool moveset and U.N. Owen was Her in Smash is basically the dream.

Arle Nadja x 5. Jin has no chance when Heihachi exists but people keep forgetting that. I'll give 11.27%.
 

TCT~Phantom

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Gonna give my two cents on 100% ratings.

My opinion on these is complex to say the least. In a way it’s evolved to something similar to my 0% opinion. If you genuinely believe that in that score and build up a solid argument for it, it’s kosher for me. Do I agree? No, not really. I have rated some things this high in the past (Ridley got a 99.99% from me and I believe I gave Shadow a super high score too before leaks became super around). I would say that a 100% Chance is saying that you would bet money that the character would be in, that there is no way they can’t be in. I personally think they should be used sparingly, but if people believe that strongly I can’t do anything about it.

I’ll do my ratings later, to give a spoiler I am not in the 100% camp. Right now though I actually could see Reimu happening and my FP gut guess would be something like this.

Crash
Spyro
Jill/Leon/Chris/Claire
Doomguy
Reimu
Heihatchi
Lloyd
Phoenix Wright
Geno
Steve
Tracer
Edelgard
Dimitri
Claude
Bandana Dee
Rex
Waluigi

Off the top of my head these are a few I would give 20+% to. Some like Crash, Resident Evil, and Lloyd I am very confident in. Others not as much.
 
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Reimu

Chance: 25%
She's a fairly unheard of character worldwide but there's no denying her series hasn't made a mark in Japan. As far a the little guys go, she does have a fighting chance.

The only obstacle I see in front of her (excluding international recognition) would be she's one of those characters that I have a hard time wrapping my head around how to faithfully adapt to a Smash fighter. Her Bullet Hell roots are a must but I cannot for the life of me see how that could translate to anything that isn't giving her an unfair advantage.

Want: 10%
Because of that issue, I feel like she's one of those characters that would actually be better represented as an Assist Trophy so she wouldn't have to be watered down. Still, I don't oppose her and would be happy if she brought UN Owen Was Her to the soundtrack, but she isn't one I'm really hoping for either.
 

Velveeta Dream

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Rey Moosterio

Chance: 5%

I've always felt like she didn't have much of a chance except I didn't really know why that was the case, but looking through most of the posts already made, I pretty much agree with most of the people that rated Reimu fairly low. Reading how ZUN is apparently anti-corp and Touhou never having any localization outside of Japan are pretty damning for the series to be in Smash. Sakurai may have gotten Marth, Roy, and Lucas in Smash in the past despite their games not having any localization at the time, but I don't think Nintendo intends on putting Reimu in Smash if her series is only exclusive to Japan no matter how big Touhou is in 1 country and online. Every franchise currently in the Fighter Pass has at least gotten worldwide releases with probably a few region exclusives here and there, so I can't really envision the day that Reimu will be in Smash unless the games end up getting localized at some point.

Want: 35%

Alright, I don't really care about Reimu. She isn't a character I want in Smash since Touhou and her design don't really appeal to me, but as you see, my want rating is a bit higher than those I've not really cared about in the past. The reason for that is because if we're getting a character from a Bullethell game, I want them to go overboard with the stage by having a ****load of stage hazards flying all over the place cause it's just so absurd it'd actually make me get behind the idea of Reimu in Smash even if I don't want her in. It'll be incredibly annoying yet amusing to play on that stage, and I'd definitely love to see the reactions to those that see her stage in Smash.

------------------
Predictions:
Jin: 24%
------------------
Noms:

Zhao Yun x5
 
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Reimu

Chance: 30%
I feel like a majority of the current possible newcomers have a 50/50 chance at being in at this point. Nothing one has over the other seems that significant with how low the bar has been set at this point. Reimu, though from an influential series in Japan, isn't that well known worldwide, so I'd say she's a fair bit less likely than the usual characters that get brought up.

Want: 0%
Pass, I'm not interested in Touhou at all. I'm not interested in how the gameplay would translate into Smash. And if I was, in a game that has Dracula and actual vampire slayers :ultsimon::ultrichter: I'd much rather have Flandre Scarlet.
 
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Reimu
Chance 40%:Reimu is likely since her franchise is big indie franchise(a lot of fan games and fanart) but there are 2 problems
1:she isn't as popular in america as of japan
2:the main games haven't appeared on Nintendo systems doesn't help.
Want 55%:Reimu Would be cool to see in smash bros, she can make make a good moveset and bring A new genre(Bullen Hell Genre) to smash.
Prediction:Jin Kazama 15%
Nomination:Untitled Goose X5
 
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People need to get over the fact that these ratings are a matter of opinion. Someone gave 100% on a character you disagree with? Let them face the consequences later. The only person who has the right to criticise any score is Sakurai himself since he's the ONLY one who knows who's in and who isn't.


Isn't the point of this thread to guage how the community views certain characters? If that's the case, then being biased is a requirement for this exercise. As long as someone is able to thoroughly explain their viewpoint, every opinion should be valid.
If liking a character leads you to believe that they're 100% going to be in no discussion, that's not bias, that's being delusional.
 

Calamitas

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If liking a character leads you to believe that they're 100% going to be in no discussion, that's not bias, that's being delusional.
Pretty much that. I mean, I've been clamouring for Amaterasu to be rated in this thread for weeks now, and pretty much got her high up on the nominations list myself. But when we do eventually get around to rating her, I'll probably just give her a 50% chance score at best, even though she's my most wanted third-party. Just because you really like a character doesn't mean that you can't be realistic. Going all out on the high scores is for the want rating.
 
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