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Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

EarlTamm

Smash Hero
Joined
Jun 17, 2018
Messages
7,329
Chance: Abstain- Not entirely sure on this, I don't feel as if I have the full picture
Want: 60%- I am perfectly fine with the character. I don't really see him as a negative, he has Nintendo history, and he is certainly influential to gaming as a whole. Heck, I am very curious to see what sort of crazy moveset Sakurai and his team could make for this character.
 

Cetus

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Jul 5, 2018
Messages
190
Steve... Oof welp...

Chance-Vergeben Says so So... 85%

Want-50%

To be honest, I'm not super against Minecraft. I think it has some unique potential and the game itself is actually fun despite its reputation.But does that mean I think he should get in above other picks? Ehhh... However, I want him solely for the supernova of salt induced rage he would create just by existing in Smash. Imagine for a moment the collective reaction of everyone seeing Steve... A character often touted as a massive joke, being seriously implemented into the game over Banjo and Isaac. Piranha Plant would be put to shame...

Also means we get some sick Steve Minecraft Le Haha Epic Combo Compilations.
 
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CaptainAmerica

Smash Master
Joined
Aug 21, 2014
Messages
3,089
Location
New York
NNID
TomOfHyrule
Blockhead

Chance: 75%
Want: 0%


I've gotta say, I haven't been so confident in an addition since Dixie after the August Direct. Or Ashley before the August Direct. Or Takamaru before the E3 direct.

Ok, so my track record isn't exactly the greatest...

Still, even without Vergy, it's obvious to anyone with eyes (and even some others) that Minecraft is a phenomenon. And even if he is just an avatar character, Steve's face is still plastered all over everything from t-shirts to LEGO sets. Nintendo franchises not named Mario or Pokémon *wish* they were as big.

But ew. If there's one artstyle I loathe completely, it's that hipster-y retreaux bull****. I get it: you're a struggling indie developer so you can't afford an art team. I still don't want to have a game that is best played on a 1024x768 CRT screen. I hate the entire look of Minecraft, and I don't need a character with less facial definition than Kirby in the cast.

Now, considering the game is all about building, a stage could be really fun, especially if it was a Super Mario Maker-esque random setup each time. But a character with awkward blocky animations? Ugh...

There is one circumstance in which I would be completely okay with a Minecraft character, and it involves a different third-party getting in...

Nom: More DLC x5
 

Sari

Editing Staff
Writing Team
Joined
Aug 3, 2014
Messages
4,436
Location
New Jersey
NNID
Villager49
Switch FC
SW-2215-0173-2152
Oh boy this day is gonna be intense I can just feel it.

Steve

Chance: 75%
Love or hate Minecraft, there is no denying that it is a worldwide phenomenon that makes anything it's connected with sell like hotcakes. The game is known by just about everyone (even those who don't play videogames) and it's one of the best selling games in history. Considering how Minecraft has appeared on multiple Nintendo consoles in the time following SSB4’s release, I don’t see why Nintendo would avoid making some easy money. Vergeben’s previous comments about there being some Minecraft content as well as the ever-increasing leaked statements of Steve being confirmed also make him seem extremely likely.

Want: 0%
To be clear I have nothing against Minecraft nor it's community; for what it's worth they are more well-behaved and probably don't smell as bad as the Smash community. That said, Steve is one of the only few characters I would flat out hate to see in Smash. Ugly design and Steve himself is just so bland, not to mention there are other Microsoft reps I’d prefer to have instead. I'd gladly take some Minecraft content in the form of a spirit or even a stage, but not a character.

Erdrick chance prediction: 23.02%
Slime chance prediction: 11.32%

Nominations: Kat & Ana x5
 

waddledeeonredyoshi

Smash Lord
Joined
Jul 29, 2014
Messages
1,515
Location
Drenthe, NL
Guess I'll repost this from half a day ago.
I'm assuming we're supposed to rate Steve now, yes? He and Rayman are sharing a day? Well then...

Brown Bricks
Chance: 70%
With Minecraft being so huge I wouldn't doubt it being one of the few third-party franchises Nintendo themself would push for. Like it or not, Minecraft DLC would print tons of money, especially Steve as a character. Sakurai loves the game too, so those are two roadblocks Steve doesn't have to worry about. Still, if Sakurai imagines Steve not being able to dance in his head and him standing out from the cast in a bad way, he could still have him be a Mii costume and call it a day.

Want: 0%
Don't have anything against Minecraft but Steve just doesn't belong. I want characters who have atleast some sort of personality to them and are vissualy appealing. I don't want a template.
Also if he gets in, the amount of images created featuring that model will skyrocket. No thank you.

CGI DLC trailers x5

Slime: 37.16
Erdrick: 34.87%
GoodGrief741 GoodGrief741 Can I assume my noms won't be counted again?
 

PK-remling Fire

Smash Ace
Joined
Sep 22, 2018
Messages
751
Location
The Warp
Minecraft Steve:

Chance: 75%
As weird as it is to say, Steve is one of the safest choices for DLC. With Verg and Hitagi backing him and the switch/xbox crossplay, Steve would probably be the most profitable character to promote considering how much <icrosoft is pushing minecraft.

Want: 10%
I have nothing against Minecraft as a whole, but Steve just seems so soulless and bland. I get that his moveset could be diverse and featured around using the various tools found in Minecraft, but the character himself is totally devoid of life. But hey, maybe Sakurai could use his magic to give him at least some form of personality instead of the soulless husk he is in Minecraft, but until then I'm going to remain skeptical.

Nominations: Assist Trophies becoming Fighters x5
 

SmasherMaster

Smash Lord
Joined
Jul 31, 2012
Messages
1,679
Location
USA
NNID
TelevisionGamer
Steve
Chance: 30%
I'm not sure about Steve's chances because Vergeben had always been talking about Minecraft content appearing in the game back in May. I think Minecraft might just have a spirit and/or a costume. Then again, neither of those really mean that a playable Steve isn't impossible.

Want: 0%
Is it possible for negative want? I'm not too crazy about 3rd party characters being in Smash, and I only want ones that are franchises extremely close to Nintendo, either historically or currently. Minecraft isn't either of those, and I don't like the look of Steve. Is that a nose and a mouth or a mouth and a beard? I CAN'T TELL! The girl character with the orange hair looks better though... Plus Steve isn't a character. It's a customized avatar for the player. Villager and Miis already do that and they are owned by Nintendo. Having Steve as a character would be like adding a Sim into Smash. Yes, the Sims is icon to video games, but they are still a generic customization for the player. And the Sims even have more personality than Steve does!

Edit: I forgot nominations! Decidueye x5
 
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Ze Diglett

Smash Champion
Writing Team
Joined
Dec 7, 2014
Messages
2,808
Location
NASB2
NNID
ZeDiglett
Sigh...

Chance: 10%
Yeah, you read that right. I just don't see Steve from Minecraft happening. I know I'm biased, but frankly, I see a future for this "character" as a Mii Costume, if anything. For starters, let's look at the reasons Nintendo would have to choose Steve over another Microsoft rep like Banjo or something:
  • Promotional value ($$$)
...that's it. That's literally it. You guys are really willing to give 75% likelihood to this? Blimey, soon we'll be talking about the Fortnite guy in Smash...

I get it, Minecraft's a phenomenon and all that, but the bottom line is that people love the game itself way more than they love Steve. Call me crazy, but even if he'd produce the most dollar signs compared to his competition, I don't see Nintendo springing for a character who didn't even have a canon name until the suits decided Minecraft needed a mascot (yep, just like Tetris needed a mascot) and for some reason didn't go with Creeper, the most iconic "character" from that game even in spite of Steve being forced into everyone's faces. (Which, to be frank, is not at all impressive nor a reason he should be in the game. If someone like Steve worked as Minecraft's mascot, then a ****ing Chicken would have worked all the same.) That, and there's another Microsoft-owned character who's kind of been topping polls left and right lately; maybe you've heard of him, his name's Banjo. Yes, I know people are already surrendering to Steve because some absolute nobody came out on the internet and said he's in, claiming Banjo's chances are dead in the water, but in my opinion, people are sleeping on Banjo hard. Banjo was easily one of the stars of the N64 era, which Nintendo certainly hasn't forgotten, and he's always been a pretty popular request. (Not to mention he has the distinct advantage of being an actual character, which I think would matter to Sakurai, who has the final veto in this process, a lot more than how many units X character would theoretically sell.) It'd take a whole lot of corporate greed for Nintendo to ignore that in favor of marketing a game which has already been marketed the hell out of, all so a couple of impressionable kids can tug on mommy's dress and say "I wanna play as the epic block man, mom!" Still, my faith in Nintendo to make good decisions isn't unyielding - that's what the 10% is for.

(And no, Vergeben's claim about Minecraft content doesn't help him. Stages, ATs, music, and Mii Costumes all exist as alternative forms of representation, and if Verg's sources knew Steve was playable, you'd think they'd say something along the lines of "a character from Minecraft is in the game" rather than "there's some Minecraft stuff... I dunno.")

Want: 0%
I'd go well into the negatives if I could. I know nobody actually reads the want scores on these things and this post is long enough as is, so I'll make this part a spoiler so anyone who doesn't care to have half their screen filled with some stranger's midnight ramblings about a videogame block man can keep scrolling. You're welcome.

You've been warned. Buckle up, because this is gonna get spicy.

To be blunt, Steve embodies everything I absolutely hate about a potential Smash Bros. inclusion. Generic avatar with an even more generic name and no character to speak of? Check. Marketing pick to pander to the lowest common denominator? Check. Steps on the toes of much more popular characters that people would generally enjoy seeing a lot more? Double check on that front. I firmly believe that characters shouldn't be added solely because of the dollar signs above their heads, and no matter how you slice it, marketing power really is all Steve has to distinguish himself from the likes of Banjo and Master Chief. Call me a snob, but as a consumer, I don't like being patronized as if I'm gonna turn my head toward any shiny product that's waved in front of my face like I'm a toddler. To me, Steve is that feeling incarnate.

That, and if Steve did get in, then frankly, he'd just be an eyesore. Steve "supporters" (I have a personal theory that Steve supporters don't exist and there are only people who merely tolerate the idea of Steve getting in the game) like to draw attention to Mr. Game & Watch as if that completely erases the issue, but such a surface-level comparison only works insofar as "weird stuff can work", which is self-evident and doesn't really prove anything. It does nothing to address the actual issue of Steve having exactly one (1) facial expression along with, what, six points of articulation in his entire body? G&W's frame-by-frame movement fits Smash like a glove by comparison.

And don't get me wrong, I'm not just some old grump who hates Minecraft and anyone who still plays it. I actually respect it a lot, and don't view it as the ****ty meme game some view it as. However, if it's to be represented in Smash, I'd much prefer a Stage, an Assist Trophy, even a Mii Costume or two. (The lattermost of which would be a perfect fit for Steve, seeing how his whole purpose in his home game is to be replaced by literally anybody else.) Think for a second about what Minecraft, the game, is actually about: exploration, resource management, and above all else, how the player chooses to interact with his or her environment. With that in mind, what would be better to represent the game: a stage, which would provide a proper focus to the game's mechanics and core values, or a character, which it has basically none of? I know which one I'd go for in a heartbeat.

There are a few characters who I'd merely groan at the sight of, but Steve is the only character who would make me outright angry at his inclusion just for what he represents. If you ask me, the second this blockhead makes it into Smash as a playable character is when Nintendo will have officially lost their corporate marbles and my faith in them as a company will drastically decrease. I hope that day never comes.
 
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NeonBurrito

Smash Ace
Joined
Aug 10, 2013
Messages
727
Location
(´・ω・`)
Steve

Chance - 80%
Steve is one of those characters I feel like people are really sleeping on, simply because they don't like the idea of him in Smash.

Minecraft is a huge series with a ton of worldwide appeal, clocking in at a whopping total of 144 million sales. He's had multiple games released on Nintendo platforms, receives a ton of attention in Japan, which is something nearly every western 3rd party character can't claim, and has even received attention from Sakurai himself, to the point where he actually bought the game twice, once on the Nintendo Switch, and another time on an unspecified console, due to how interesting he found the game to be:
The character of Steve himself is also no slouch. He's constantly featured across merchandising for the franchise, such as plush dolls, figurines, action figures, LEGO, you name it. Plus in Japan, he seems to be a relatively popular character request for a newcomer this time around, which once again, is something nearly unheard of for western 3rd parties.

Really, I'd say the only things holding him back is how he's a Microsoft owned character and how he isn't as iconic as the game itself or something like a Creeper. The first doesn't seem to be much of a problem considering both Microsoft's statements on Smash Bros., and the fact that the Wii U, Nintendo 3DS, and Switch versions of Minecraft exist in the first place, but you never know. The second could very well be a potential dealbreaker, but I'm not Sakurai. Steve is still very prominently featured across merchandising, but alas.

He's been a prominent and successful figure on Nintendo consoles, especially within Japan, is an extremely iconic character across the globe, and has received a good amount of attention from Sakurai himself. People are sleeping on him hardcore, simply because they don't want him in Smash.
I saw this coming a mile away.

Everything is going in Steve's favor.
Of course, this isn't even factoring the numerous other points Steve has in his favor.
Whether you like it or not, there is very little standing in Steve's way at this point. I'd say the one thing that might just possibly stand in his way would be Sakurai wanting to go with more of a fan favorite (Banjo) in the case of a Microsoft character. But Sakurai isn't behind the DLC wheel. Nintendo is. And above all else, Nintendo is a business. They want to promote games, make headlines, and pull in as much cash as possible.

I started my original post with this statement, and I'll end my final post on the topic with it as well:
Steve is one of those characters I feel like people are really sleeping on, simply because they don't like the idea of him in Smash.

Want - 0%

Even though I've opened up on more third parties in recent times, Steve still just puts a bad taste in his mouth. His movement just seems like it would be jarring compared to the rest of the cast, I feel the Minecraft franchise as a whole would be better represented as a stage rather than a full on DLC pack, and for a Microsoft character, I would much rather have Banjo and Kazooie. But alas, my opinions don't really influence Nintendo's choices, now do they?
 

Artix

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Jul 9, 2018
Messages
254
Steve

Chance: 50%
With Minecraft being super popular amongst gamers and the fact that both Vergeben and Hitagi backing him up as DLC, it's safe to say that Steve is our Microsoft rep in Smash. Not to mention, Nintendo is selecting the DLC Fighters this time around, so it's most likely they would pick him over a fan favorite like Banjo & Kazooie and he would definitely sell way more than Banjo anyway due to how popular Minecraft is. Really, everything is going well for Steve when it comes to being in Smash, especially since Verg and Hitagi completely backing him through leaks.

Want: 0%
Not gonna lie, I like Minecraft and I've been playing for several years now, but I really don't want Steve in Smash at all. There are other third-party characters that I want in Smash more than Steve, to be honest. But even then, I would prefer Banjo and Kazooie over Steve as our Microsoft rep in Smash.

Nominations:
Nero Claudius (Fate) x5
 

RileyXY1

Smash Hero
Joined
Jun 8, 2016
Messages
7,124
Steve

Chance: 40%
Although Verge has said that Minecraft is getting some content, he has never said anything specific. Minecraft could get anything. It doesn't have to be a character. Although Hitagi claims that he's in, he's not very trustworthy, as shown by the whole Katalina situation.

Want: 0%
I have no interest in him.

Nominate: Kat & Ana x5
 
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Ridrool64

Smash Lord
Joined
Jun 21, 2013
Messages
1,398
Location
New Jersey
Herobrine with Pupils

Steve Chance - 90%. Psuedo-leaked: unless Vergeben's Minecraft content comes base game as a song or spirit, we get a Steve Mii Costume, Hitagi is wrong, Vergeben is wrong, or Microsoft made a last minute decision to add Banjo over him or bail from Smash entirely, we're getting Steve. There's almost no question about it. There are no items or Assist Trophies left, we know the whole roster, every base game stage, and there's nothing in the game that screams Minecraft.

Without leaks, Steve gets a 40% Chance, since Nintendo and Microsoft are competitors.


Steve Want - 65%. While technically tied with Rayman, it's not about the """character""" so much as it is about Minecraft as a whole. Minecraft means quite a bit to me, especially as it was one of the few games me and my brother could play together. It's legitimately a fun experience, and while I think it'd be adequately represented as a stage or Creeper Assist Trophy, Steve would be the culmination of that. Plus, poor guy's gonna get 0%'s everywherer. SOMEBODY has to like him. (Though, if it comes with Story Mode stuff... the want's boosted to 75, just below Banjo.) I guess I've seen Steve enough to think he won't look wrong in Smash.

Nominations - Arle Nadja x 5.

Erdrick and Slime will have around the same ballpark in Chance: 70%. Some will see Erdrick as more likely, others will see Slime as more likely.
 
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zferolie

Smash Hero
Joined
Jul 2, 2013
Messages
5,002
Wow... so much hate for steve.... but understandable hate.

STEVE:

Chance: 85%

With verge saying we are getting Minecraft content, I can very well see it being playable Steve(With a Alex alt i bet), or it will be a mii costume we haven't seen yet. We need to wait till we have the game to know for sure. Like it or not, Minecraft is huge, and Nintendo is pushing the game hard, and Microsoft is supportive of Nintendo crossplay. It would be crazy not to see them.

Want: 40%

I am not a fan of minecraft, and I would be a bit upset if steve is one of our 5 DLC(for now). I don't venomitly hate the character, but I most likely won't play him(maybe Alex but the moveset needs to be very fun).

Prediction: Slime 85% Eldric 50%

Nom: Pyra and Mythra without Rex x5
 
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AirMac1

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Sep 23, 2018
Messages
462
Updating my score because Rayman is indeed a spirit.

Chance - 1%

I'm a pretty stark believer of the idea that "spirits mean deconfirmation unless we have legitimate proof otherwise," so I'm not holding my breath anymore. In my book, the guy (and every other spirit, including the also newly deconfirmed Bandana Waddle Dee) are doneso unless we see a spirit turned into a fighter for DLC.

Still abstaining on want.
But K Rool’s a spirit

Steve
Chance:20%-From a business point of view, he would be pretty popular. But not as popular as Banjo and Kazooie. Many fans want them because of Rare’s history with Nintendo. Minecraft’s just a game that, while popular, would draw more people away than in. If Nintendo really wanted a popular character, they would choose Roblox Noob. Because Minecraft is old.

Want:Abstrain

How many noms do we get today?
 

RealPokeFan11

Smash Lord
Joined
Aug 24, 2018
Messages
1,244
Location
Center of the Zero Point
Switch FC
SW-0818-9732-6979
THAT
Chance: 90%
Want: 5% (if
doesn't make it)

Want: 65% (if
makes it in)


This is a tough one. As a Banjo supporter and a former Minecraft player, Steve has the much higher chance here. (Mostly thanks to Vergayben and Hitagay) Both are saying that Steve will be in the game for DLC. It all depends on what Nintendo cares about more: their fans, or money. Steve would make sense in terms of money and relevancy, but it would anger a lot more fans rather than pleasing them. Nintendo and Microsoft are on good terms, especially with Minecraft, and they did a crossplay commercial to poke at Sony over Fortnite crossplay restrictions. Banjo on the other hand, is a classic Nintendo character that was created by Rare, and was bought out by Microsoft.
He would still make quite a lot of money due to longtime supporters buying him right away. Despite not being relevant, he would cause a lot more hype than outrage, and I think this is the proper way to go here. Steve is one of those characters I want and don't want at the same time, and Banjo is the deciding factor. I'd be more than happy if both got in, but the chances of that happening are very slim. If Steve gets in over Banjo, it would be kind of disappointing. Steve would be an odd character for the roster. His model is very plain and stiff, but they can easily use animations from Story Mode or Dungeons to fix that problem. He is capable of using multiple tools and items to his disposal, and his moveset would require creativity from Sakurai to make him an interesting fighter. It's one or the other at this point, and while I'd prefer Banjo, (or both) Steve is the pick who is more likely at this point.

Predictions: Erdrick 50%
Slime: 65%

Nominations: Reaper x5

Note: I'm glad that there's a lot less toxicity than expected, and that most of the 0%'s are not due to hating on Minecraft for the sake of hating on Minecraft.
 
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WaddleMatt

Smash Lord
Joined
May 7, 2018
Messages
1,065
Location
United Kingdom
Switch FC
SW 5950 1333 3717
Steve:

Chance - 10%

I am really not seeing it, it may be a gut feeling but look the only reason he would get added is for 'promotional reasons' apparently but why does Minecraft need promoting? It is one of he biggest games of all time and if we are going to get promotional characters they will probably be 1st party. Also yes I think Banjo has a higher chance but we aren't here to talk about that as he has already been rated.

Want - 30%

Ok, I loved Minecraft back in the day but Steve being a character in Smash does not go that well with me. I just think there are better characters to choose from and Minecraft would work a lot better as a stage. Also yea I don't really care for 3rd parties that much in fact if we get a ton more this DLC cycle I am gonna grow sick of seeing them. However, I have to admit it would be awfully nostalgic seeing him join.

Nominations: Rhythm Girl x5
 
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PokéfreakofBACON

Smash Ace
Joined
Jul 3, 2015
Messages
860
NNID
PokefreakofBACON
Switch FC
SW-7469-1948-3865
Steve-

Chance: 40%
I don't believe Hitagi at all, and Verge never actually said Steve is playable I'm pretty sure. That said, he's not the least unlikely option at all. I do think if we get a Microsoft rep, it's more likely to be Banjo, with Minecraft stuff coming along with Banjo. I could see us getting both, honestly. I think people are seriously overestimating him AND underestimating him at the same time. Wack.

Want: 60%
The only Microsoft rep I'd care about, and one of two third parties I'd care about. Minecraft is fun and Steve's moveset would be awesome. Are you telling me a character who could possibly add walls to the stage, or maybe even break part of the stage doesn't sound sick? Plenty of characters I'd much rather have, though. (Also it'd be fun to laugh at everyone who hates Steve.)

I'm not sure if tomorrow is rating the chance of either slime or erdick, or both simultaneously? I'll predict both.
Erdick OR Slime: 60%
Erdick: 40%
Slime: 15%

Nominating Rhythm Girl x5
 

Sid-cada

Smash Lord
Joined
Jan 19, 2013
Messages
1,779
Steve

Chance - 25% - I'm willing to admit he's big enough to get in, but I don't see him working out. It's true that he's a juggernaut among the gaming word, but he just lacks that omph for a Sakurai pick. Making a full-blown move set for him seems like a tall order while making him interesting. Sure he can build, but what else can he do? His incredibly limited articulation seem like it would be a struggle.

Want - 20% -

Are you telling me a character who could possibly add walls to the stage, or maybe even break part of the stage doesn't sound sick?
If by "sick" you mean "awful," yes. Why do you think stages will walls are universally banned? I'm telling you, someone will figure out a way to make an infinite combo using a wall to prevent the opponent from escaping. I remain convinced that characters who make walls will never have a place in Smash.


Predictions

Erdick - 10.46% - Mostly a "who" to most people.

Slime - 65.46% - Plant says hi.


Nominations

Arle Nadja X5
 

GoodGrief741

Smash Legend
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
10,169
100-51

Arle Nadja x80
Boss: Kracko x65
Grovyle x60
Rhythm Girl x60
Concept: All DLC will be third-party x60

50-25

Concept: Gen 8 Pokemon x45
Concept: Stages outside Fighter Pass x45
Nero Claudius (Fate) x45
Kat & Ana x45
Concept: CGI trailers for newcomers (barring Piranha Plant) x42
Lora (Xenoblade) x40
Concept: No fan favorite/highly requested characters x40
Concept: Third-party character from unrepped Company x40
Mach Rider x40
Concept: More DLC x35
Reaper (Overwatch) x35
Professor Hector x32
Impa x27
Concept: All DLC will be first-party x25
9-Volt x25

Under 25

Thrall (Warcraft) x20
Concept: Assist Trophy becomes Fighter x20
Reimu Hakurei x20
Creeper x17
Hollow Knight x15
Papyrus x15
Frisk x10
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x10
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei rep x10
Andy (Advance Wars) x10
Ninten x8
Decidueye x5
Blacephalon x5
Hector (Fire Emblem) x5
Concept: Bethesda rep x5
Lizalfos x3
Toon Zelda x3

Rhythm Girl and All third-party DLC cross 50 noms.

Impa and 9-Volt leave the under 25 club.

FancySmash FancySmash Meowth is a Pokéball Pokémon, so we can’t rate him.

zferolie zferolie You managed to give out noms for two characters already in the schedule.

3DSNinja 3DSNinja You only get five nominations per day.
 
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zferolie

Smash Hero
Joined
Jul 2, 2013
Messages
5,002
100-51

Arle Nadja x80
Boss: Kracko x65
Grovyle x60
Rhythm Girl x60
Concept: All DLC will be third-party x60

50-25

Concept: Gen 8 Pokemon x45
Concept: Stages outside Fighter Pass x45
Nero Claudius (Fate) x45
Kat & Ana x45
Concept: CGI trailers for newcomers (barring Piranha Plant) x42
Lora (Xenoblade) x40
Concept: No fan favorite/highly requested characters x40
Concept: Third-party character from unrepped Company x40
Mach Rider x40
Concept: More DLC x35
Reaper (Overwatch) x35
Professor Hector x32
Impa x27
Concept: All DLC will be first-party x25
9-Volt x25

Under 25

Thrall (Warcraft) x20
Concept: Assist Trophy becomes Fighter x20
Reimu Hakurei x20
Creeper x17
Hollow Knight x15
Papyrus x15
Frisk x10
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x10
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei rep x10
Andy (Advance Wars) x10
Ninten x8
Decidueye x5
Blacephalon x5
Hector (Fire Emblem) x5
Concept: Bethesda rep x5
Lycanroc x5
Lizalfos x3
Toon Zelda x3

Rhythm Girl and All third-party DLC cross 50 noms.

Impa and 9-Volt leave the under 25 club.

Today’s sole newcomer is Lycanroc, with 5 noms.

FancySmash FancySmash Meowth is a Pokéball Pokémon, so we can’t rate him.

zferolie zferolie You managed to give out noms for two characters already in the schedule.

3DSNinja 3DSNinja You only get five nominations per day.
Yeah i screwed that up that time haha. I know who to nom in the future though!
 

Hollywoodrok12

Smash Lord
Joined
Aug 31, 2018
Messages
1,037
Steve.......

Chance: 99%. He's basically a lock. There's Vergeben, who's got nothing wrong (who's word we should be taking as Gospel), Hitagi, who shares sources with Vergeben, the fact that Nintendo and MS have been surprisingly Buddy-Buddy, the fact that after Verge opened his mouth, support for Steve rose (mainly among trolls and Banjo/Shantae haters). There's also the fact that many consider him a gaming icon, and more, with no valid counterarguments involving his likelihood. (Edit: Split one of the sentences in two in case it doesn't count.)

Want: -99% (if that doesn't work, then just 0%). No. No. No. No. NO. My extreme distaste for Steve is actually not because of Steve or Minecraft themselves. It's because of three other fighter candidates: Shantae, Shovel Knight and Banjo. Shantae, Shovel Knight and Banjo have been waiting for years to get their chances in Smash Bros, only to get their slots stolen by... Steve. Each of these characters have personalities and things that make them stand out, which is why we, as fans, grew to rally behind them and want them. Steve getting in would basically be Nintendo saying "You want the barrier between Microsoft and Nintendo to be broken so you can see an old All-Star make a return? You want an indie fighter that represents the smaller developers and the passion that they pour into their games? LOL NOPE! HERE'S THE VERY CHARACTER THAT YOU DO NOT WANT WHO WILL DECONFIRM ALL OF THEM IN ONE FELL SWOOP!" There's also the fact that he's not even a character. That's not even exaggerating like some people who call Bandana Dee a Hat Goomba are. It's not even like the existing avatar characters, like Villager, Robin, Corrin and Inkling who actually have personality, either. People from Mojang have stated that Steve and Alex are not the main characters; that they are just stand-in skins until they're replaced by the skin of the true main character: the player. Mojang doesn't even consider Steve a character. Much like many other Steve haters, I don't hate Minecraft (in fact, I used to play it all the time), nor do I hate Steve the character(?), or even Minecraft representation outside of a fighter. In fact, a Minecraft Stage (without a fighter) would be awesome, especially considering how Minecraft is not a game about characters, but about worlds and how the players interact with them. I just hate the idea of Steve getting in over Shantae, Shovel Knight and Banjo, all of which have been highly requested for years and have fans who actually care about them. While some may argue that Steve can actually increase Banjo's chances down the line (think Mega Man and Ryu), there's still Shovel Knight and Shantae who are left as an Assist Trophy and PNG file. They, unlike Banjo, can't get another chance since Nintendo/Sakurai will probably look at them and be like: "Oh. Shantae and Shovel Knight? We already have an indie rep with Steve, so why would we put them in?". So basically, a Minecraft fighter would steal slots from more derserving Microsoft and Indie reps and there are better ways to represent Minecraft (a game about worlds) than with a blank slate of a character that would steal multiple slots from more deserving characters and has been highly requested to NOT be in the game.

Nominations: No Fan Favorites x5
 
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GoodGrief741

Smash Legend
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
10,169
Ah, goddammit

For chance: I honestly feel like it’s going to happen. Might be just my pessimism speaking, because if I analyze it rationally, it doesn’t make any sense. All he’s got going for him is the fact that Vergeben said he’d be in (though past blows have taught me to trust in his word). He’s not demanded, he would cause more controversy than it’s worth, I don’t even know if he’d sell well.

For want: 0%
If the Devil, God, Sakurai, whatever, made a deal with me: I don’t get any character I want, but Steve doesn’t get in, I’d do the deal.

To me, Steve just goes completely against the spirit, the pedigree of Smash. For starters, I think Minecraft is a good game, and pretty original. Is it influential? I mean, maybe in the ****ty indie survival game market, but otherwise not really. Minecraft just didn’t get to be the best-selling game of all time by virtue of being good, and we all know it. It came out in the right conditions to become an internet sensation. To me, Minecraft is no different from Five Nights at Freddy’s (although the latter is not as good): both decent games, that just became magic for Youtubers and thus became a phenomenon.

I do not associate Minecraft with the pedigree or caliber of games and characters in Smash Bros. Everybody there is from a game that’s great. Phenomenal. Will be remembered by those who played it. And that brings me to my biggest problem with Minecraft:

It’s bound to become a footnote in history. As part of the generation that grew up playing Minecraft, I can witness it firsthand. You’d think with a game that sold as much as Minecraft, that would have gotten a lot of young people into gaming. But that did not happen. People played Minecraft, stopped playing and moved on to other stuff. Most don’t even look back fondly on it, seeing it as just a childish diversion. I contrast it to the Wii: that also sold a lot and was definitely targeted to casuals and new gamers, but it had a lot more of an impact on people (maybe it’s unfair to compare what was basically an indie game to something that Nintendo created, fair enough).

The argument that Minecraft should be represented because it sold a lot is bull****. GTAV is the most lucrative entertainment product in history, yet you don’t see anyone claiming Michael de Santa should join Smash. Insert similar examples with Call of Duty, Tetris, whatever.

And frankly, Steve as a character... it’s not even a character. No expression. He can’t even convey the personality of his game (like Villager or G&W) because his game lacks much of a personality or tone as well (beyond, like, calm, I guess). He’d probably have either a boring moveset or a gimmicky awful crafting/terraforming moveset.

And also, he shouldn’t be in over Banjo or even Master Chief.

Nominations: Mach Rider x5

Isn't Lycanroc already on the schedule?
Good eye. Fixed it. Thanks.
 

Jomosensual

Smash Champion
Joined
Aug 13, 2018
Messages
2,014
steve

Chance: 50 - I don't see any reason to doubt Vergeben's claim that there will be Minecraft content in the game. Hitagi backing off his claim was interesting, and I think it's either steve or Banjo for sure getting in, but put a gun to my head and I'm thinking steve gets in over Banjo. He's extremely relevant now while Banjo hasn't been in a long time, so I'm willing to bet he'd sell more.

Want: 20 - Never been a huge Minecraft person. My experience with the game includes playing it for 5 minutes and then getting bored and jumping off high things for fun or digging to the center of the world. I'd buy him, but I'm gonna get all the DLC anyways barring anything drastically dumb so it won't really matter.

Noms
Gen 8 Pokemon x 5
 

aarchak

Smash Ace
Joined
Jul 29, 2018
Messages
501
Location
The blast zone
Steve

Chance: 30%
He's got a lot of promotional value, but I doubt he'll get in. Minecraft's promotional time has passed long ago, and I doubt Steve would fit in well with Smash.
Want: 0%
I DO like Minecraft, but I don't want Steve in. He's generic, weird, and really shouldn't be in Smash.

Nominations
Lora x5
 

Icedragonadam

Smash Master
Joined
Jul 16, 2014
Messages
4,093
Switch FC
SW-5227-6397-6112
Steve

Chance: 50%. Unfortunately he has a chance. Minecraft is huge in both the west and Japan, and Vergeben says that there will be Minecraft content in the game.

Want: 0%. This guy actually makes me like Incineroar. He would be the worst newcomer in the game for me even if another DLC character was my most wanted.

Nominate Concept: All DLC will be 3rd party x5
 

Mimic88

Smash Cadet
Joined
Nov 2, 2018
Messages
33
Chance: 20%
It's a Microsoft property and though they might be willing to make money off of selling their IP/game on Switch consoles, they aren't going to let Nintendo make money off of it by selling their character. Though there's still a chance. My guess is we will see a Steve spirit at least.

Want: 10%
Not interested. Though I can see building stuff on stages to be a funny gimmick.
 
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TheCJBrine

Smash Legend
Joined
Jul 28, 2013
Messages
12,054
Location
New World, Minecraft
Steve Minecraft:

Chance: 70% - I originally gave B-K a 50% chance along with Steve? in my prediction as I figured we could get one or the other, but I realize Steve has the higher chance of happening, given Vergeben's statements and Minecraft being an obvious inclusion for Nintendo and Sakurai to decide. Vergeben could be wrong but eh, it makes sense.

Want: 100% - Tbh, if I could, I would choose B-K over Steve? if we couldn't get both, but I'd be happy with either one. I love Minecraft and would like a playable Steve? or Creeper in Smash, as I could see him (or the Creeper) working using simple texture edits to his eyes for emotion, the official Minecraft artstyle on its website and merchandise (which seems to fit Ultimate more-so than Minecraft's ingame pixels), and maybe Minecraft: Dungeons movement/emotion (though I could see it working even with Steve?'s normally stiff limbs, as they can actually move in any direction). Calling Minecraft a fad is like saying it never had its 6-8 years of extreme popularity, and there are people who played during its Alpha and Beta days who still love and play the game today (me included; started during its Beta 1.5 update).

Minecraft will die out someday, just like every other game, but it may be a classic too, and saying all this bad stuff about it and calling it a fad as if it's 100% fact is like ignoring how many people love the game; it's not loved because it was a small indie from a then-unknown game developer, it's loved because people actually find it likable. A lot of people even like its silly graphics, as I've seen people being unsure about the new official textures they're working on before people were used to them. If it was just a fad, it would have never reached the point of being the 2nd best-selling game of all time, just under the much older game Tetris. I mean, have your own opinions, that's fine, but using them as facts to bash the game is just annoying imo, it's the same thing with Undertale and FNaF.

...I will admit, however, that singleplayer survival can get boring quickly depending on who you are, although the new stuff recently has made it a lot better imo (or maybe that's just after taking a break, I dunno).

Nominations:

Creeper x2
Ninten x2
Lizalfos x1 (I actually have a thread now, decided to take it somewhat more seriously too, but I realize it won't happen...)
 
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YoshiandToad

Smash Hero
Joined
Dec 24, 2001
Messages
7,110
Location
Still up Peach's dress.
Steve(?)

Chance: 55%
One of the more likely third parties if Microsoft are indeed playing ball. He'd sell megabucks, Minecraft is bigger than everything Smash currently has to offer aside from Mario, Pokemon and the Wii series, beating even Sonic the Hedgehog and Final Fantasy in sales. That's pretty insane.
You'd be insane to think Steve(?)'s inclusion wouldn't shift some copies of the game to the younger gaming generation and I think Microsoft would put their most profitable foot forward first.

...that is, IF Microsoft is getting a character at all. I'm not entirely convinced yet, but Steve(?) is one of the biggest front runners alongside Banjo...and I'd bet on the blocky mega success story between the two. And no, I'm not talking about Banjo's Nuts and Bolts design. I said success story.

Want: 31%
I'll be honest; Minecraft isn't my bag, but I can see why Microsoft and Nintendo could easily both latch onto Steve(?) for the game. He's not meant to pander to 90s kids(tm) like K. Rool or Ridley do but rather to the newer generation of gamers. And that's fine with me even as a grumpy 90s kid. Let the younguns get their Minecraft or Fortnite reps, Steve(?)'s definitely more warranted than more than half the third party suggestions I keep seeing on Smashboards anyway even with his vocal hatebase here.

Much like the great Square rep debate I don't really have a horse in the Microsoft rep debate either. Banjo, frankly wouldn't make much sense other than to pander to the same SNES/N64 kid crowd who just got K. Rool and Simon Belmont, and we're eventually going to be moving on from gaming to go and start families and the like. Master Chief meanwhile is a big BIG name but as he's pretty much always been an exclusive Xbox character it'd be a headscratcher to me.

Whilst I don't much care for Minecraft it is easily one of the most significant video games to have happened in the past decade and easily eclipses everything else in it's massive blocky wake aside from Nintendo's top two franchises(and Wii series of games).

As for Steve(?)'s moveset? I imagine it could be pretty interesting. Possibly using a similar plan to my Captain Toad video moveset; a stage manipulator capable of forming his own platforms. Admittedly I would be a bit gutted if Steve(?) got in just due to the overlap between him and my most wanted with both using pickaxes and tweaking the world around them to progress.

Either way, I'd probably still buy him if his moveset was interesting enough or he looked fun to play, he just wouldn't be a day one purchase for me.
 

PeridotGX

Smash Hero
Joined
Jun 8, 2017
Messages
8,750
Location
That Distant Shore
NNID
Denoma5280
Steve

Chance: 70%. He's very likely, and not just because of leakers. Minecraft is a hugely popular game, and Microsoft has been cooprotive with Nintendo recently. Plus, Sakurai may like the moveset potential. Speaking of, almost every time I heard Isabelle suggested as a unique fighter, they almost always mentioned the Public Works Projects, making her a terraformer. That angle is completely absent from Smash Isabelle. Is it due to another potential character with that gimmick on the way?

Want: 40%. I used to really like Minecraft. He'd be neat to see, even thugh there are characters I'd prefer. I do think this place (and GameFAQs for that matter) hate him way too much.
 

RouffWestie

Smash Lord
Joined
Oct 27, 2013
Messages
1,207
Location
Georgia

Steve
Chance: 99%
Want: 80%
Meets all the requirements for being in Smash, and would be an obvious choice to appeal to a large audience.
I would consider him a solid pick because Minecraft is a great game and it's mechanics could translate well into Smash.

Nominations: Arle Nadja x5
 
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Troykv

Smash Master
Joined
Jan 24, 2015
Messages
3,990
Steve??

Chance: 50%

This is the kind of character that has many of the tools a revelant characters would like; he's game is quite popular; and personally unlike Freddy that at best will be remember as a meme; at least Minecraft has potential to turn into the 2010s Tetris (In fact, Minecraft was one of the reasons the Battle Royale started to get steam recently). His franchise has everything you would like from a Smash Bros Representive, even has a relatively important presence in Nintendo as one of this late game that decided to take of risk of dying in the Wii U an actually getting profits of it.

Now; there are two reason I can't give Steve a larger score...

1.- Being a Microsoft Character (technically) puts him in a very weird spot
2.- Steve? isn't exactly a character persey, and his aesthetic is very connected to him despite looking quite... unimpressive in a HD Game.

Want: Abstain?

I don't know; I need to see it in action; but at least I can say I would like to see Minecraft content in Smash; it deserves it.

______

Predictions:

The DQ Guy: 39.5%
The DQ Goomba: 35.6%

Nominations:

Reimu Hakurei x5
 
D

Deleted member

Guest
Chance: 50%
Sure there is a lot of evidence leading to Steve, but who knows really? Maybe Microsoft would rather give Banjo. I am very uncertain about his chances. He is a big icon though, and he has sold roughly fifty million more copies than even GTA5. Even if GTA5 is more relevant than Minecraft, Minecraft is still on top close to Tetris. Minecraft is a giant icon.

The thing is that Minecraft's peak would be 2012-2015 as it was being marketed and being filled by people the most, even if the olden days of Minecraft are considered the Golden Age. The thing is, Banjo makes people more nostalgic and was quite a hit on the 64. Steve has some competition with Banjo. Guys, Steve is not guaranteed, even if I love Minecraft.

Want: 100%
I have played Minecraft for six to seven years, and it is one of my favorites. He is my most wanted newcomer too, second being Sans. I know you all do not take Steve seriously, but he is far more interesting to me than Banjo. You all have not seen what potential Steve has. I mean, look at his move-set potential.
STEVE.png
STEVE@.png
STEVE3.png
STEVE4.png
Also Minecraft has a ton of options for a stage. Maybe a night zone where Zombies and Creepers attack you. A Nether Fortress or the ends. Really cool ones are the End City and Woodland Mansions.
232626326.jpg 25352253253.jpg
There is so much potential to Steve. The game's definition is creativity and I love games that you can build and it requires a lot of creative thinking. Like BOTW, Skyrim and Mario Maker are all good examples.

I will leave my nomination option blank for now.
 
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RealPokeFan11

Smash Lord
Joined
Aug 24, 2018
Messages
1,244
Location
Center of the Zero Point
Switch FC
SW-0818-9732-6979

Steve
Chance: 99%
Want: 80%
Meets all the requirements for being in Smash, and would be an obvious choice to appeal to a large audience.
I would consider him a solid pick because Minecraft is a great game and it's mechanics could translate well into Smash.

Nominations: Arle Nadja x5
You might wanna add a little more to each score for those noms to count, just to be safe :)
 

Icedragonadam

Smash Master
Joined
Jul 16, 2014
Messages
4,093
Switch FC
SW-5227-6397-6112
https://www.reddit.com/r/u_Senjougahara__Hitagi/comments/9yzt7h/z/ea72kkr

So a recent update here from Hitagi. I'm going to adjust my score here.

Chance: 50%. Unfortunately he has a chance. Minecraft is huge in both the west and Japan, and Vergeben says that there will be Minecraft content in the game.

Want: 0%. This guy actually makes me like Incineroar. He would be the worst newcomer in the game for me even if another DLC character was my most wanted.

Nominate Concept: All DLC will be 3rd party x5
New Score: 20%. With the the fact that DLC is still in the blue. I lowered my score for Steve. The only sure thing from Vergeben is Minecraft content which IMO is just spirits. I firmly believe the Microsoft rep will be Banjo if there is one.

Want: same score and reason

Same Nom.
 
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Ze Diglett

Smash Champion
Writing Team
Joined
Dec 7, 2014
Messages
2,808
Location
NASB2
NNID
ZeDiglett
Wow, big shocker. No-name leaker comes out of the blue and starts spouting information, and it turns out to be falsified. Why were we ever listening to Hitagi again?
 

CatRaccoonBL

You can do it!
Joined
Jul 22, 2013
Messages
4,898
Location
Wuhu Island
NNID
RaccoonBL
3DS FC
2294-4606-0767
Chance: 85%
I feel like everything is perfect for steve to get in. The enviroment and circumstances. You have nintendo and microsoft working together and you have minecraft on nintendo systems themeselves with cross play even. It also an iconic franchise with steve himself even being able to be recognizable. Then there is of course potential to make a unique oppturnity. I don't see either Sakurai and Nintendo passing it up. The things that are against him though are the fact he is 3rd party in a sea of them compounded with limited slots, small potential for banjo instead, and maybe hesistiation based on reception.

Want: 50% He's the type of character who I don't care for, but he would be neat to have. He will probably be fun and come with a neat stage. But steve himself definitely is also kinda boring.
 

TheCJBrine

Smash Legend
Joined
Jul 28, 2013
Messages
12,054
Location
New World, Minecraft
I honestly doubt Minecraft is only Spirits, unless they come with Banjo-Kazooie DLC.

No way they get Microsoft or Mojang on board and we only get Minecraft as Spirits in the base-game.
 
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