Rate Their Chances- Smash Ultimate Day 340 - Lara Croft (Tomb Raider)

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Rayman
Chance: 20%

Rayman has had a trophy in, and he's a big enough name that he should have at least been an assist trophy by this point(I'd rank him and Bomberman around the same level). Probably the most likely third party if I were to hazard a guess.

Want: 70%
I like Rayman. I enjoyed Origins a lot and heck didn't even mind the Raving Rabbid games way back in the day(played Rayman whenever I could in them mind). He's french and has a very unique gross out style to him that I find weirdly charming.

Had you asked me during Sm4sh he'd have been my joint number two third party choice, but with Crash Bandicoot and Spyro's revivals reminding me how much I liked them in my childhood, Rayman probably only hits number 5 on my most wanted third parties now after Tails, Bomberman, Spyro and Crash.

Want also takes a slight tumble as I'd far prefer we fix the first party holes first; Dixie, Bandana Dee and (Captain)Toad in particular, but Rayman overall would still be a day one purchase for me as he'd fill a nice niche with an extremely long range fighter with his detachable limbs...

...are we sure Rayman isn't actually Master Hand and Crazy Hand's true form?
 

TheDukeofDorks

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Rayman
Chance: 20%
Spirits disconfirm characters, huh? That is actually stupid. You think Sakurai looked at the list of DLC characters Nintendo gave him, went through it, and thought "Oh dear, we already uploaded a .png of this one into the game! Guess we can't use them!"

Come on people. That's absurd.

That said, Rayman does have a few hurdles to overcome. His spot as Ubisoft's mascot has been eroded away by the existence of the Rabbids. The only way his inclusion would benefit Nintendo would be to strengthen their relationship with Ubisoft, which, again, the Rabbids could just as easily fulfill. And as much as I love the guy, I don't see his inclusion making as many waves as other potential third party characters.

One thing that does make me a little optimistic is that he's only a spirit. This is Ubisoft's second appearance in Smash Brothers, you'd think they'd at least have an AT, right? But, that could also benefit the Rabbids as well.

Want: 100%
Most wanted character. Always has been, always will, if I get Rayman in this game I will never need anybody else.
 
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You think Sakurai looked at the list of DLC characters Nintendo gave him, went through it, and thought "Oh dear, we already uploaded a .png of this one into the game! Guess we can't use them!"
Not trying to be rude, but I think it's the other way around. As you probably already know, Lucas and Mewtwo got into the game despite being trophies (I think they're exceptions to the rule, since they're veterans but thats besides the point), so if Sakurai really wanted or needed to, he could add them. What I think happened is that DLC, which was decided during development, was probably chosen before spirits, so here's how I think it went: "Ok. Here are the 5 guys you want as newcomers. OK then. I guess all of these fan-favorites are off the table, so I'm just gonna put them in as Spirits.". This would mean that the spritis would deconfirm indirectly, rather than directly.
 
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See, this is why it was better to start this again only after we knew about every Spirit we were getting. Do we have those chance scores yet, by the way?


Rayman

Chance: 30%
I find that if there's anything that demonstrates Nintendo's historical apathy towards other companies, it's how Ubisoft has yet to get a significant appearance in Smash up to now. Because Ubisoft is the one big Western third-party company that kept on developing for Nintendo consoles even in the lean times between the SNES and the Switch, when it was simply too unprofitable for other Western devs to tackle such a foreign and casual-marketed platform. But not Ubisoft, oh no! Give us Rayman Legends, give us Watch_Dogs, give us those neato crossovers that Nintendo didn't have to lift a finger to make happen. It's kind of like the argument people posit for WayForward, except that Ubisoft is significantly more relevant.

Yet for all of Ubisoft's unwarranted favors, the furthest Rayman has gotten in Smash was being Smash 4's first non-character third-party debut. Which is better than, well, everyone else who wasn't, but it does ask the question: if Sakurai knows about Rayman enough to pick him as a trophy, and finds the idea of negotiating Ubisoft easy enough to make it happen, then why hasn't a Rayman character happened up to now?

Frankly, I don't trust Nintendo to gun for Rayman, because I've yet to see Nintendo really do anything for Ubisoft in return--as in, actually make something that it wants Ubisoft to be a big part of. Ubisoft's always the one who offers to do something in their relationship, while Nintendo just signs the dotted line and lets the enthusiastic Westerners do all the work and help fill the Switch library.

Rayman hasn't ever had it as strong as other third-party nominations. Always behind the likes of Crash and Banjo, or Altair, or simply anyone closer to Nintendo's headquarters. And it really, really hurts you when you've been upstaged by those who were supposed to be the generic baddies of what was supposed to be your next sequel. Still, Rayman was the first of the old Western platforming stars to break out of his rut with Rayman Origins - a great demonstration that he had way more in him than just remastering what had worked before. And there's always the non-negligible chance Nintendo decides to be a little economical with their third-party choices, and makes more use of that Ubisoft connection than just asking for a few image rips.

Want: 75%
I'm always down for international representation, and Rayman's detachable fists have yet to really show up in Smash in any practical manner. Smash may never be the full video game crossover that some think it is, but a Rayman inclusion would bring it a heck of a lot closer to that ideal.


Prediction:
Steve: 55%

Nominations:
Papyrus x5
 
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TheDukeofDorks

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Not trying to be rude, but I think it's the other way around. As you probably already know, Lucas and Mewtwo got into the game despite being trophies (I think they're exceptions to the rule, since they're veterans but thats besides the point), so if Sakurai really wanted or needed to, he could add them. What I think happened is that DLC, which was decided during development, was probably chosen before spirits, so here's how I think it went: "Ok. Here are the 5 guys you want as newcomers. OK then. I guess all of these fan-favorites are off the table, so I'm just gonna put them in as Spirits.". This would mean that the spritis would deconfirm indirectly, rather than directly.
Except we know when the DLC fighters were finalized. November 6th, or very very shortly before than, based on Sakurai's Twitter. And we know that, when Sakurai wrote his latest Famitsu column, the game had already gone gold. There is absolutely no way content was being moved around in that time period, that is too deep into the chaotic mess of bugtesting to risk doing that. I would put a LOT money on the Spirits roster having been decided well before that point, they gotta properly test their stats, their events, make sure they level up properly, etc.

I apologize if I'm coming off as rudely dismissive, that's not my intention, it's just that the scenario you're listing isn't feasible in the world of game development.

EDIT: Also, if we're not getting Spirits as DLC fighters, we're not getting 5 DLC fighters. Everyone is a spirit at this point
 
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Don't forget that Smash 4 wasn't even supposed to have a DLC season. They were only ever going to put Mewtwo as a special bonus, with no plans to return Lucas or Roy until afterwards.

You could argue that Sakurai made the Spirits list with DLC choices in mind this tim. But by handing the DLC choice to Nintendo, his choices there potentially become non-factors. No one can really say either way.
 
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Except we know when the DLC fighters were finalized. November 6th, or very very shortly before than, based on Sakurai's Twitter. And we know that, when Sakurai wrote his latest Famitsu column, the game had already gone gold. There is absolutely no way content was being moved around in that time period, that is too deep into the chaotic mess of bugtesting to risk doing that. I would put a LOT money on the Spirits roster having been decided well before that point, they gotta properly test their stats, their events, make sure they level up properly, etc.

I apologize if I'm coming off as rudely dismissive, that's not my intention, it's just that the scenario you're listing isn't feasible in the world of game development.

EDIT: Also, if we're not getting Spirits as DLC fighters, we're not getting 5 DLC fighters. Everyone is a spirit at this point
Except the tweet by Sakurai in no way implied that DLC had just been decided. That’s just what Smash fans decided to grasp on to with all their might.
 
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Except the tweet by Sakurai in no way implied that DLC had just been decided. That’s just what Smash fans decided to grasp on to with all their might.

I mean, if there's some other interpretation of the words "SSBU's DLC line-up is now complete," I'm certainly not seeing it.
 
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I mean, if there's some other interpretation of the words "SSBU's DLC line-up is now complete," I'm certainly not seeing it.
It’s now complete literally means it was complete at the moment of writing. ‘It wasn’t complete until now’ is just inference from the reader.
 

TCT~Phantom

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See, this is why it was better to start this again only after we knew about every Spirit we were getting. Do we have those chance scores yet, by the way?


Rayman

Chance: 30%
I find that if there's anything that demonstrates Nintendo's historical apathy towards other companies, it's how Ubisoft has yet to get a significant appearance in Smash up to now. Because Ubisoft is the one big Western third-party company that kept on developing for Nintendo consoles even in the lean times between the SNES and the Switch, when it was simply too unprofitable for other Western devs to tackle such a foreign and casual-marketed platform. But not Ubisoft, oh no! Give us Rayman Legends, give us Watch_Dogs, give us those neato crossovers that Nintendo didn't have to lift a finger to make happen. It's kind of like the argument people posit for WayForward, except that Ubisoft is significantly more relevant.

Yet for all of Ubisoft's unwarranted favors, the furthest Rayman has gotten in Smash was being Smash 4's first non-character third-party debut. Which is better than, well, everyone else who wasn't, but it does ask the question: if Sakurai knows about Rayman enough to pick him as a trophy, and finds the idea of negotiating Ubisoft easy enough to make it happen, then why hasn't a Rayman character happened up to now?

Frankly, I don't trust Nintendo to gun for Rayman, because I've yet to see Nintendo really do anything for Ubisoft in return--as in, actually make something that it wants Ubisoft to be a big part of. Ubisoft's always the one who offers to do something in their relationship, while Nintendo just signs the dotted line and lets the enthusiastic Westerners do all the work and help fill the Switch library.

Rayman hasn't ever had it as strong as other third-party nominations. Always behind the likes of Crash and Banjo, or Altair, or simply anyone closer to Nintendo's headquarters. And it really, really hurts you when you've been upstaged by those who were supposed to be the generic baddies of what was supposed to be your next sequel. Still, Rayman was the first of the old Western platforming stars to break out of his rut with Rayman Origins - a great demonstration that he had way more in him than just remastering what had worked before. And there's always the non-negligible chance Nintendo decides to be a little economical with their third-party choices, and makes more use of that Ubisoft connection than just asking for a few image rips.

Want: 75%
I'm always down for international representation, and Rayman's detachable fists have yet to really show up in Smash in any practical manner. Smash may never be the full video game crossover that some think it is, but a Rayman inclusion would bring it a heck of a lot closer to that ideal.


Prediction:
Steve: 55%

Nominations:
Papyrus x5
Scores are done but I can’t post them yet, traveling for the holiday. Tomorrow though ;)


As for starting now, the primary reason was when many people in the thread said that spirits were fair game. Even if we didn’t know everyone they were not dead on arrival. At least according to most people. A majority of people said spirits were not a likely deconfirmation. While some did say it was a death knell, or bad sign, majority was unsure so we went forward.
 
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It’s now complete literally means it was complete at the moment of writing. ‘It wasn’t complete until now’ is just inference from the reader.
Then why would they say "now complete?" Wouldn't it be pointless to suggest that it had been decided later rather than sooner, instead of being more earnest with a statement like "The DLC has already been decided"?

Either way, we can't hold Nintendo or Sakurai to the possibility that they chose them earlier anyway. Not to mention, it mirrors the behaviour of certain Western companies that plan their games with Day 1 DLC in mind, which is something Nintendo, and especially Sakurai, is well above.
 
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Then why would they say "now complete?" Wouldn't it be pointless to suggest that it had been decided later rather than sooner, instead of being more earnest with a statement like "The DLC has already been decided"?

Either way, we can't hold Nintendo or Sakurai to the possibility that they chose them earlier anyway. Not to mention, it mirrors the behaviour of certain Western companies that plan their games with Day 1 DLC in mind, which is something Nintendo, and especially Sakurai, is well above.
I think the odd wording of the message is due to translation issues.

And why I also thought Nintendo was above planning DLC before the game is finished, I think this time they tasted blood. Their new CEO seems to love DLC, and Piranha Plant appeared nearly finished by November 1st.
 

Ed-boy

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I'm gettin' deja vu here....

Leader of the Raysistence

Chance: 35%
Honestly, I'd say that this may be the best chance he's ever had. I know this reason has probably been drilled into the ground, but it bears repeating that Ubisoft has done 2 well-received collabs with Nintendo, with more allegedly on the way. Who's to say Ubisoft isn't already planning a Smash character as their next collab? Beyond that, Rayman has already established a sort of presence in Smash with 4's trophies, & surely Nintendo is atleast somewhat aware of the solid fan request count. No, he's not much of a big figure in Japan, but as it stands, all the Eastern juggernauts are covered (save for maybe Dragon Quest) so for as long as 3rd-parties continue popping up, they're gonna have to add a western 3rd party eventually. As a whole though, I can't truly say I'm dead set on his chances, as anything could happen.


Want: 100%
I still stand by my past statements, & I stand by them with pride. he remains up there with Dixie Kong & Toad as one of my of my most wanted current newcomers, though I'm keeping my expectations at bay. I get that he's not much of a gaming icon, but he's far from an obscure nobody. The man has more moveset potential than some may think, as shown in this video, for instance. (really, this should go without saying at this point. We got a piranha plant, people!).
 
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UtopianPoyzin

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Nom:
Shantae if she's not on the list, otherwise Slime from Dragon Quest x5
That feeling when your pick and your alternate are on the DLC rating waiting list...


Ehh... I'm lazy again. It's a shame because I'm missing out on some of my favorites to be DLC, Rayman and Banjo. I just wanted to make sure that my nominations for Impa are in, and I'll start back up tomorrow.

Nominations: Impa x5
 
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Rayman

Chance: ABSTAIN

I had an explanation for a 40% chance score almost done, but after his spirit confirmation I'm not really sure where to put him anymore, so for now I'm going to skip this one.

Want: 80%

I've known Rayman since childhood. While he was never one of my very favorites, I've still gotten some fun out of his games. He'd be likely to have a fun moveset in my opinion and he's very deserving. I would be quite happy with him.
 

zferolie

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That feeling when your pick and your alternate are on the DLC rating waiting list...


Ehh... I'm lazy again. It's a shame because I'm missing out on some of my favorites to be DLC, Rayman and Banjo. I just wanted to make sure that my nominations for Impa are in, and I'll start back up tomorrow.

Nominations: Impa x5
really? lol. where is this list i keep missing?
 

MasterWarlord

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Rayman chance - 3%
I don't think spirits deconfirm first party characters at this point because we have so many of them. For 3rd parties, however, it's a big spoiler that they are in the game in any way, shape, or form. It spoils the surprise by not having their introduction to Smash not be as a playable fighter. I don't think the developers would present Rayman's reveal as a generic spirit before anything else. There's also the fact Rayman was licensed out for Brawlhalla which made me already consider him dead in the water quite some time ago.

Rayman want - 10%
Yeah, sorry, I really don't like his games and think they're overrated as far as 90s platformers go. I find the worlds and characters of Rayman to be high up there for the most uninspired in the genre. The only reason this isn't lower is the fact that I admit he would deserve his spot if he got in.

Nominate Lycanroc x5
 
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Rayman:

Chance - 20%

Yea Nintendo and Ubisoft have a great relationship but I think the main problem is Nintendo of JAPAN is choosing the DLC most likely. Rayman is a nobody in Japan unfortunatley so I am doubtful of his inclusion but I won't rule it out just yet. Also, Spirits mean nothing.

Want - Abstain

Sorry but I don't have a connection to the character at all.

Nominations: Rhythm Girl x5
 

Troykv

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BTW when we'll get the Chance Scores?

_____

Rayman:

Chance: 20%

Hard to say; his presence in Smash Ultimate was expected thanks to his previous random trophy in Smash Wii U, so his presence as a spirit isn't unexpected, but it's problematic for the development of the DLC; the wording about their creation makes unclear if this is a Lucas/Mewtwo situation or not... But already stopping with the negatives, Rayman is kind of popular and one of the mascots of one of the only western companies that actually didn't stuff for Nintendo in the Dark Ages; so at least they have a lenghtly history with Nintendo.

Want: 50%

Well; he has his fans; I personally don't know what to say about it; but it would be interesting.

_____

Predictions:

Steve: 56.6%

Nominations:

Reimu Hakurei x5
 
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I'm assuming we're supposed to rate Steve now, yes? He and Rayman are sharing a day? Well then...

Brown Bricks
Chance: 70%
With Minecraft being so huge I wouldn't doubt it being one of the few third-party franchises Nintendo themself would push for. Like it or not, Minecraft DLC would print tons of money, especially Steve as a character. Sakurai loves the game too, so those are two roadblocks Steve doesn't have to worry about. Still, if Sakurai imagines Steve not being able to dance in his head and him standing out from the cast in a bad way, he could still have him be a Mii costume and call it a day.

Want: 0%
Don't have anything against Minecraft but Steve just doesn't belong. I want characters who have atleast some sort of personality to them and are vissualy appealing. I don't want a template.
Also if he gets in, the amount of images created featuring that model will skyrocket. No thank you.

CGI DLC trailers x5

Slime: 37.16
Erdrick: 34.87%
 
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I'm assuming we're supposed to rate Steve now, yes? He and Rayman are sharing a day? Well then...

Brown Bricks
Chance: 70%
With Minecraft being so huge I wouldn't doubt it being one of the few third-party franchises Nintendo themself would push for. Like it or not, Minecraft DLC would print tons of money, especially Steve as a character. Sakurai loves the game too, so those are two roadblocks Steve doesn't have to worry about. Still, if Sakurai imagines Steve not being able to dance in his head and him standing out from the cast in a bad way, he could still have him be a Mii costume and call it a day.

Want: 0%
Don't have anything against Minecraft but Steve just doesn't belong. I want characters who have atleast some sort of personality to them and are vissualy appealing. I don't want a template.
Also if he gets in, the amount of images created featuring that model will skyrocket. No thank you.

CGI DLC trailers x5

Slime: 37.16
Erdrick: 34.87%
They are not, Rayman’s day will go on longer.
 

Smash Daddy

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:137: Rayman :186:

Chance: 1%


Third party spirits are a very bad sign and Rayman already got a trophy in Smash 4 too, I just don't see the angle for Nintendo to advertise it as a shocking third party character anymore. I also believe that we're getting a Square-Enix character, the real estate for DLC space is hyper competitive. Brawlhalla doesn't help. He also has competition in his own "franchise" with Rabbids.

Want: 10%


Not a fan of Rayman and while he has a decent body type for a set conceptually he's your typical platforming mascot. I have the same opinion of Crash, but Crash I have a nostalgic attachment to, the only Rayman game I've played is the first and I just don't personally see the appeal. Still would be happy for his fans.
 

Sari

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My stance on spirits is that they hurt their chances but only by a tiny bit (I'm talking like a 5% decrease in chance percent at most). Spirits in general don't seem that difficult to make since they are literally just .png's, and unlike assist trophies they aren't present in battle so it wouldn't feel redundant for them to be playable.

Also I have no idea why people are saying Rayman's appearance in Brawlhalla hurts his chances. Brawlhalla is an extremely popular game that is published by Ubisoft so it only makes sense for them to add their own guest character. Who else from Ubisoft would fit the bill for a colorful fighter better than their iconic Rayman?
 
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Brawlhalla is a platform fighter like Smash Bros. We don't know the specific ins-and-outs of how third parties work, but there's the possible existence of a no-competition clause in play for Fighters. No other third party fighters have shown up in a platform fighter released around the timeframe of Ultimate (in other words, possible competition for Ultimate).
 

PapillonXtreme

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Rayman

Chance: 40%
To be honest, Spirits don't really deconfirm a character since they're just like trophies in the previous game. Anyways, with Ubisoft's good relationship with Nintendo nowadays, I can definitely see Rayman being included in Smash as DLC. However, if I remember correctly, Rayman's not too popular in Japan and that alone could hurt his chances in making it in Smash. Another thing is that he appeared in Brawlhalla as a playable character so that might also hurt his chances.

Want: Abstain
I don't know much about Rayman since I haven't played any of his games yet.

Nominations:
3rd Party Character from an unrepped company x5
 
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This day is still going right? Okay then.

Rayman
Chance: 45%
Yes, I've been on the side that spirits don't deconfirm you as a character, because if that's the case the DLC pool would be really limited! At this point, we should just treat stickers (spirits, IDK) like trophies till confirmation says otherwise. Ubisoft does have a better relation with Nintendo within the past year or so. They're the ones that's been liking these crossover games. I can totally see them being appreciative of Rayman being a DLC character. Yes, Rayman does have some things against him. He's not that popular in Japan and he's appearing in Brawlhalla as a playable fighter, but it doesn't hurt anything. It's barely competing with Smash Ultimate anyway!


Want: 90%
I was a BIG advocate for Rayman back during Smash 4 DLC ballot days. I've wanted him in so badly because he would have a very unique moveset. I would still LOVE to see him, but I do have other newcomers since then that I would kinda like to see more. He would definitely be a great DLC pick.


Steve-Oh boy, this should be a fun one! 45%

Nominate: DLC character trailer reveals x2 (I'm pretty sure this hasn't been done, that'd be a fun topic to discuss)

P.S.: I don't know what to nominate these days! I'm pretty sure every character has been rated at some point anyway, unless there's some kind of a re-rate
 
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UtopianPoyzin

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P.S.: I don't know what to nominate these days! I'm pretty sure every character has been rated at some point anyway, unless there's some kind of a re-rate
...... hey there, sport; i see that you have an impa4smash banner in your signature... and you say that you don't know what to nominate... how 'bout ya help me out with nominating impa?


Yep. Guess I'm back with my old nomination antics again. If somebody doesn't know what to nominate, I will constantly bring up my nomination. It (didn't) work for Quote, so it (won't) work for Impa this time.
 
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Strider_Bond00J

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Chance: 1%
Vergeben's implicated him yadayadayada Minecraft on the Switch Blah Blah Blah Everybody loves him! Sakurai will surely shove such an ugly character down our throats because landmorphing! He's got a pickaxe and rakes money for Microsof-
Weiss.no.gif

Want: Negative Infinity. (0%)
I have no love of Minecraft or Vergeben shoving that stupid face down our throats.

I'm sick of this blockhead and I'll be looking forward to a scenario where Vergeben is proven wrong and his beloved Steve is dead.
 
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Cubism (Steve)

Chance: 80%
Steve is actually looking really likely. First there's Vergeben, who needs no introduction, then there's just stepping back and looking at things from Nintendo's angle. Minecraft is incredibly popular on Switch, as well as being on 3DS and Wii U. Not to mention, kids eat up the the Minecraft stuff. If Microsoft were to get a rep, Steve is the most likely. Banjo might have fan demand, but little modern recognition. Master Chief might have Microsoft's "mascot" status (unless anyone wants to argue Clippy the Paperclip of Office Assistant Infamy), but he means next to nothing to Nintendo. Steve has both qualities that Banjo and Master Chief could only dream of having.

Want: 50%
Let me preface this by saying Steve is not my first pick for a wanted character. Bandana Dee, Rayman, Banjo, Dixie, and actually most any other high ranking characters would probably come before Steve. The 50% is really from me growing used to the idea of Steve. He's been talked about so much from leaks that whilst I don't prefer him, I've grown to at least accept that he's most likely here. I suppose I can't be too upset though, as Steve could easily offer a rather unique moveset for this game. However, my years with the Smash community has taught me that a unique moveset means nothing if people have a hard time justifying why your here, isn't that right :ultcorrin:? I can only hope Steve's default weapon is the pickax, not a sword.

Predictions: Erdrich: 71%, Slime 49%

Nominations:
Meowth x3
Professor Hector x2
 
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Steve:
Chance: 70%-Yeah, I do believe he's more likely than Banjo or any other Microsoft character, and it's not because of Vergeben or Hitagi's influence so much as it is simply because Minecraft is already a multi-plat game, and Nintendo has shown to be okay collaborating for it (hence the Creeper-theme New 2DS XL).
Want: 50%-I'll be sincere, I don't hate Minecraft as others do. I get why people hate it, thanks to how much of a cash cow it is for cheap-*** youtubers to make money from, and because of children with terrible behaviour online. But things change, Minecraft isn't as plagued as it was years ago. Today, it's just another normal game.
EDIT: Whoops! Forgot my noms again. 5 for All-Guests pass again. Hope I didn't do it late.
 
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