Rate Their Chances- Smash Ultimate Day 340 - Lara Croft (Tomb Raider)

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No comment on the leak yet. Abstaining from Kyo Kusanagi, currently unable to give a proper judgement on him but it'd probably be super low for both anyway

Balloon Fighter

Chance: 5%

I'm giving him this high because he's arguably one of the most notable retro characters not yet playable, and because Balloon Fight already has a good amount of content in the game, so Sakurai might have/have had some interest there. Still, he's been turned down in the past, and I am in the boat that considers Villager's move to be a bad sign. I feel like it's possible Balloon Fighter has been considered again after Melee, but ultimately wasn't picked for reasons and the game is being represented in other ways. Plus I've still had doubts on if we'll get a retro newcomer at all, and if we do there's other options.

Want: 50%

Balloon Fight is decent enough, and I like that he's a pretty notable name. I've never been the most interested in this concept, though. It could work, I'm sure, but others are more obviously interesting to me. I'm sort of indifferent here.

Nominations: Saki x5
 

DaUsername

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Balloon Fight
Chance: 0.01%
If he was ever gonna be in Smash, Villager's up special wouldn't exist. That's all that really needs to be said.
Want: N/A
Also skipping the other guy.

Skyrim prediction: 2%
Newcomers prediction: 50%
Noms: 9-Volt x5
 
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Koopaul

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Meh at this point I feel pretty much everyone we could vote for has little to no chance. I'm more interested in the Wants and seeing people's desires for characters. That being said...

Balloon Fighter
Chance: 0.5%
Sakurai has shown interest in the series by giving us an item, music, stage, stage hazards and Villagers Up Special. The fact that he sprinkles in so much Balloon Fight love shows how much he cares about the game but also shows that Balloon Fighter may never be a character due to the fact that he's done everything except that.
Want: 70%
He's a pretty iconic retro NES character and I'm sure if they did manage to make him a fighter he'd be pretty fun to use. Yeah I'd take him whole heartedly.

Abstaining from that other guy I have no idea is.

Nominations:
Barbara ×3
Slime ×2

It's almost time. I'm eager to see how much people Want these characters in Smash.
 
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TCT~Phantom

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Day will end at 5 today

I am gonna be blunt right now, I am going Team Grinch. My ratings for chance are going to be so much lower from now on. Every detail from the Grinch leak lines up really well. Analysis done on Reddit, the paper trail, things make sense to me. As such, I kind of am gonna have to be very negative with scores.

Kyo

0% Chance

Team Grinch. Even ignoring that, Terry is a huge hurdle. Hell, even Tekken is a hurdle since it is a bigger series. IMO if we do go this road, Heihatchi then Terry and then maybe we can talk.

Abstain Want

Not familiar with King of Fighters.

Balloon Fighter

0% Chance

Team Grinch. That means he aint our retro. Even ignoring that, he has his problems. The stage being there is good! But he was not added with it. To me, that makes me feel Sakurai does not see him as interesting.

60% Want

Not my ideal retro but serviceable. I would rather have certain other retros that I feel would be more interesting to play as, but Balloon Fighter is not the worst choice.


Nominating Sora x 5
 
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Well, it's 6:55 so I will start now.

The Grinch stole Christmas from us, and now he stole Smash Brothers as our Christmas present. I think since this leak has an 85% chance of being real, we should start rating chances for DLC sometime soon (Once it's confirmed of course.)

CORRIN'S LONG LOST COUSIN
Chance: 0%
DLC: 10%
Want: 25%

Ignoring the Grinch, he still would've been a 0%. The roster is currently tight on character slots, and he appeared on switch way too recently. He had no ballot support either, so if it's happening anytime soon, it WILL be DLC. Sadly, those chances are also very small, especially since Dovahkiin is third party.

MORE CHARACTERS!
Chance: 99.9%
Want: 100%

Considering the Grinch is correct, we will be having 5 more newcomers, and 2 new echo characters. And those characters range from amazing to interesting. There are no characters that bother me in this leak, and what's not to love about more characters? There might also be DLC in the future, so the Smash hype train will keep on chugging along.

Nominations: Xurkitree x5
Help would be appreciated since it will probably be in the batch after the next one :)

Predictions: Papyrus 0%
Tsubasa Oribe: 0%
 
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CaptainAmerica

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...So are we just starting? Because I've got a lot to say for this one.



Chance: 0.01%
Want: all of my want.

Ok, I'm not an idiot. Recent leaks notwithstanding (I'm trying to avoid those...), DLC is most likely going to be a thing, so I'll go from that route. Skyrim's pretty old at this point (first released in 2011), and it's hit by the same 'one shot only' problem that affects everyone but the Fire Emblem cast and the Kid Icarus clone. And the fact that the Dragonborn is a blank avatar character. And the fact that there are people who are convinced that Sakurai is a vehement racist and wants no western characters in the game. Also, if we look at the fanbases for Bethesda characters in the first place, Doomguy's got a lot more pull from various sites.

Still, The Elder Scrolls series is one of the more memetic video game series - every game has at least three lines that immediately end up on Know Your Meme or the like. Everyone remembers "Arrow in the Knee" or "Stop right there, Criminal Scum!" Unlike TESV however, there wasn't really a marketed character for Morrowind or Oblivion (and Arena and Daggerfall didn't really make the same splash that the later ones did in the first place). Skyrim's marketing, however, centered around a male Nord with the worst armor in the game a specific look, and he appeared in all trailers and promo art.

Skyrim was pretty important in the Switch's marketing. Back in October '16, the first Switch trailer used it as a major selling point to the extent that it was the second game shown off for the console. Skyrim was technically shown off for the Switch before a Mario game. The only game shown before that was Zelda: BotW, which definitely feels like it has influence from Western RPGs like Skyrim...and in return, Skyrim Switch included Link's outfit as its own crossover content, allowing you to spawn a treasure chest (BotW-style) with amiibo just like in BotW. In addition, the Dovahkiin's helmet is probably one of the most recognizable pieces of headwear in games nowadays - even TF2 got the helmet as a crossover - to the extent that most people on this site recognized my stock icon I made as "the guy from Skyrim" without me even saying anything.

Now, we know that Bethesda has talked to Nintendo about Smash, but that could mean pretty well anything - and again, that article is headed by a picture of Doomguy since he's the one that has the most fan pull. Still, there are a lot of ways that Bethesda content could end up in Smash, from a simple trophy like Rayman had (assuming those are returning...) to an assist to a boss and up from there. In terms of all of the ways Skyrim could get representation, I'll just refer back to my previous post on the topic:
Skyrim's actually an older game now - first released in 2011 and since then rereleased on literally everything that could run it. True, it has its flaws and is starting to show its age a bit, but that doesn't take away from the fact that it was an amazing game and made an immense impact. Bethesda, for me at least, is the name in open-world RPGs since you can lose yourself so easily, and they're great to come back to over and over again (that reminds me, I need to go back and play Morrowind again).

Normally, despite being a groundbreaking game in the first place, I wouldn't bat my eyes at it in Smash...then the Switch was announced. Of course the announcement trailer showed off Breath of the Wild - everyone knew that BotW was going to be the game that sold Switches. And then...Skyrim? Nintendo's got a Bethesda RPG on it's new console? And it's portable? A Nintendo console is powerful enough for that!? Kinda says something when the second game ever shown off on the Switch behind Breath of the Wild is the archetypal Western RPG. Think about it: Skyrim was shown off before Mario.

Beyond that, I feel Skyrim was influential on Breath of the Wild itself. The two games were compared frequently, and there's a lot of BotW that feels more 'Western RPG' than 'Traditional Zelda.' Sure, each is its own game, but I really did get a 'Skyrim' vibe playing through BotW. I'm willing to bet that the devs did enjoy parts of the game. And, that did end up going both ways as well - Skyrim's Switch release has a few unique features, including BotW-style chests containing a full set of Link's gear (Master Sword, Hylian Shield, and the Champions Tunic), and the new option to make a Wood Elf with blue eyes. Ostensibly so you could play as Link and add 'Dragonborn' to his already impressive array of titles.


As to representation of Skyrim in Smash, though...there's very little precedent. Honestly, I never even considered it until some YouTuber commented "Dovahkiin for Smash!" on the announcement trailer. Sakurai has never put a Western character in as playable, and Dovahkiin also suffers a bit of empty avatar that Robin had - he is a blank character to be filled in by the player, but there is a definite canon look and feel for him. I tried to play the default male Nord Barbarian once, and ended up as a stealth archer again by the first dungeon. Still, I prefer his default look and feel. He'd make a cool barbarian archetype - his concept art has him dual wielding a sword and dagger which would be awesome for normals, but he's also got the potential for a bunch of other weapons if that's too boring. Also, no matter which set of normals, the specials would be great Dragon Shouts:

But there's something I can't ignore: Rayman. He got a trophy in the game despite having no playable representation at all. I think it'd honestly be cool to see loads of trophies to show off third-parties important to Nintendo even without playable representation (and as we mentioned a few days ago, some third-parties would make great stages instead of characters like Minecraft), so this would be awesome. I threw together some quick mockups of trophies that would look incredible.


Or, what about Akira, Jacky, Heihachi, Lloyd, Dragon Hunter, Gil...all Mii Costumes from unrepresented franchises. Again, these are mostly Eastern, but it would be cool enough to stuff a Mii Swordfighter in the iconic armor like the Xbox avatar here. I'd play the heck out of that Mii then.


There's also the option of representation based on music (that awesome soundtrack!), and I'd love to see the Draugr running (well, shuffling) around Smash Run.

I'd love to see any kind of representation for Skyrim really. Of course I'd die of excitement if he were playable, but even so I'd rather him be DLC in the first place. Still not a fan of overstocking the vanilla roster with third parties, and I realize that he doesn't 'fit' in smash thematically to a lot of people so I'd like that as an option. However for me that would be a day one purchase and I would have loads of fun with it.

And just imagine of Dovahkiin and Ridley are both confirmed...? Every dragon needs a hunter! Truly epic Smashfests! Or imagine this: Found on Google...

[Squeaky Kirby voice] FUS RO DAH!
Now that Rathalos is confirmed, having Alduin as a boss characer seems unlikely...but there's the undeniable awesomeness of having a born dragonslayer fighting literal dragons like Ridley or Corrin in Smash. Also the epicness of being able to actually cross blades with Link after their games heavily referenced one another would be incredible.

But there is one thing in Skyrim's favor as well - Skyrim was one of the first, actually the first, western games to achieve a 40/40 on Famitsu. Skyrim's Wikipedia page reports all of the GOTY awards it ended up getting. Also keep in mind that the modding community is going incredibly strong for Skyrim as well, which still gives the game longevity. It is possible that these factors could go towards bringing Skyrim content in. Furthermore, Skyrim as a whole is relatively tame and depends on the dragon shouts as a mechanic. We've had M-rated games in Smash, but people like to joke (or seriously argue) that a Doomguy without epic violence or a Vault Boy without nukes would be a bastardization of the character. Dovahkiin however doesn't depend on questionable content for sticking to form.

I'll plug my character design and moveset again, since I'm really proud of it and I think it'd make a fun kit: Definitely looking for feedback on this.
Sorry for the double post - it’s been a while and I’ve been thinking of how I’d implement a playable Dovahkiin.

The various art most commonly shows him with a sword/dagger combo or a sword/shield combo. We don’t really have a dual wielder in the cast, and the various Links are the only one with shields but they don’t use them offensively. Thus, I decided to stick with those to base a moveset on.

Dovahkiin will have his shield on his back, and both weapons equipped. Like in Skyrim, it’s easiest if the off-hand dagger just disappears if necessary or if he picks up an item. He can also sheathe the sword for any moves or items that need both hands.

Based on the customization possible, I made costumes for several race/gender choices. There are two models (male and female) which act the same way, similar to Robin’s two options.
Possible costumes:
View attachment 153410
Male 1: default Nord. Blond hair, blue eyes.
Female 1: takes Lydia’s appearance. I debated on Aela, but Lydia is one of the better known characters and she’s more armored.
Male 2: takes after Brynjolf. Red hair, green eyes.
Female 2: blonde hair, blue eyes. I used Stormcloak colors for her.
Male 3: Redguard, black hair, brown eyes. I went with an imperial color scheme, but took Tullius’ gold armor since all the other men had grey. Not that the Redguards would support the empire by Skyrim, but eh...
Female 3: Altmer. I took a gold Elven recolor for the armor, and gave it some Thalmor black touches.
Male 4: Orc. This model will have a slight difference from the other male models to get the correct teeth. Armor is darker like the Orcish armor in game.
Female 4: Dunmer. I tried a Dark Brotherhood motif for the armor here.

While I hesitate to call it a ‘gimmick,’ Dovahkiin’s specials rely on recharging shouts. Each shout has three charge levels (uncharged, from just tapping the button; half charge from holding for a bit; and full charge from olding longer). Uncharged shouts can be used anytime and do not add to the recharge timer. Charged shouts can only be used when not in cooldown, but will go into a cooldown phase after use. Naturally the more a move is charged, the more powerful it is.

Cooldown is shown as a bar on the UI. Like in Skyrim, the bar will glow in cooldown, and will fade when done. To improve visibility, the entire bar will be filled.
View attachment 153455


Neutral​
Skyrim’s standard attack: Two sword swipes from right to left, then left to right.​
Ftilt​
Lunges and stabs with the dagger.​
Utilt​
Sword swipe above him. Similar to the first swipe of Link’s uSmash.​
Dtilt​
A dagger swipe while crouching (Skyrim’s Off-hand attack while in Sneak mode).​
Dash​
Does a spinning attack (Skyrim’s Sword/Dagger Power Attack). 3 hits:​
- Quick dagger slash to the left.​
- Heavy sword swipe to the left, turning him.​
- Heavy dagger backhand.​
FSmash​
Powerful shield bash (Skyrim’s Power Bash). Charges while holding the shield in front of him. Does great knockback and gives armor for the duration. Punishable.​
USmash​
Stabs the air with his sword while shouting. Small windbox effect around him.​
DSmash​
Plants the sword in the ground similar to the Talos statues. Lots of end lag.​
Nair​
Spins around with sword and dagger out.​
Fair​
Heavy slash in front of him with his sword.​
Bair​
Tosses dagger and catches it in a reverse grip, then stabs behind him.​
Uair​
Slashes both blades above him in a cross pattern.​
Dair​
Equips shield and falls to a three-point landing. Small ground tremor.​
Grab​
Empties left hand and grabs enemy by the collar. Sheathes sword on successful grab.​
Pummel​
Punches enemy in the face with his right hand.​
Fthrow​
Tackles enemy to the ground and slams shield into their chest, similar to the Captain America/Iron Man fight in Civil War. High damage but no knockback. Natural combo into dSmash.​
Bthrow​
Grabs enemy with right hand and shoves them behind him. Meanwhile, equips shield in the left. Tosses shield at dazed enemy, and it bounces back to him.​
Uthrow​
Uppercuts enemy, and then grabs dazed enemy by the feet and throws them upwards.​
Dthrow​
Pulls enemy in and turns them around. Stabs them in the neck with dagger. Similar to Taki’s throw from the Soul Calibur series. Enemy collapses at his feet. High damage, no knockback.​
Floor​
Slashes both blades on either side​
Edge​
Pulls himself up with his left while slashing vertically with his sword​

Standard B​
Unrelenting Force:​
Fus – Similar size to Lucas’ PSI Magnet. Does minimal damage and trips opponents in range.​
Fus Ro – Makes a projectile which will launch enemies and do damage. Damage and knockback decrease as distance from Dovahkiin increases. Projectile moves slightly over ½ length of Final Destination. Medium recharge time.​
Fus Ro Dah – Projectile travels ¾ of Final Destination. Stronger damage/knockback, but will decay over distance. Also includes a small hitbox directly in front of his mouth which is a OHKO. Extremely long recharge. Kirby’s copy does not have the OHKO hitbox, but also has a slightly shorter recharge.​
Up B​
Dragon Aspect:​
Mul – A small windbox boosts him slightly. Gives barely any height, similar to Robin’s tomeless Elwind or SoPo’s Belay​
Mul Qah – Gains spectral Dragon armor and windbox gives a major boost similar to Wario’s Corkscrew or Lillte Mac’s uppercut. Spectral horns act as a hitbox. Low recharge time.​
Mul Qah Diiv – Spectral armor now includes wings. Higher recovery, which can be angled, and then goes into a glide for a few seconds like Peach’s Parasol. Getting hit or timing it out puts him in free fall. Medium recharge time.​
Side B​
Fire Breath:​
Yol – A quick blast of fire like Mario’s custom Fast Fireball.​
Yol Toor – A stronger fireball, like Bowser’s custom Fire Shot. Low recharge time.​
Yol Toor Shul – A strong fireball that explodes like a Smart Bomb on contact. Leaves a fire on stage for a time. High recharge time.​
Down B​
Ice Form:​
Iiz – A nondamaging windbox on either side, similar to Mario’s custom Gust Cape, but hits both sides of him.​
Iiz Slen – Adds ice damage to the windboxes. Similar to Ice Climbers’ Blizzard. Low recharge time.​
Iiz Slen Nus – Large ice storm similar to Suicune’s Blizzard. High recharge time.​
Final Smash​
Bend Will:​
Shouts “Gol Hah Dov” to force a dragon to land, then climbs aboard and it flies off. It hovers in the background while the player shoots a jet of fire similar to Lucario’s Final Smash Aura Storm.​

I also came up with some other possible animations for the Dragonborn:
Appearance​
Dismounts from a horse, and then unsheathes his sword and dagger.​
Idle 1​
Stretches shoulders and flexes blades menacingly. Similar to idle animations for bandits in Skyrim.​
Idle 2​
Sheathes dagger, adjusts helmet/hair, and then pulls dagger back out.​
Taunt 1​
Pulls out a war horn with his left hand, shouts “Victory or Sovngarde!” and blasts.​
Taunt 2​
Pulls out a tankard with his left hand and toasts the enemy (“For Skyrim!”) before downing it. 1/10 chance that he will pull a jug of milk instead.​
Taunt 3​
Equips his shield and smacks the shield twice with his sword. Similar to one of the bandit idle animations, or Wonder Woman’s entrance in Injustice
Victory 1​
Camera zooms around as if it were a dragon as Dovahkiin looks up at it. Name appears right as camera flies in close and he shouts.​
Victory 2​
Dovahkiin kneels in prayer and seems to be absorbing a soul. Name appears as he looks up and opens his eyes.​
Victory 3​
Dovahkiin flies in on Paarthurnax. He dismounts and name appears as he looks heroically outward.​
Phew...that was a lot. Please let me know what you think!
In the end...this is my pipe dream character. This is the one character who, if he showed up, would excite me to the point that I wouldn't need anyone else in Smash ever. I really want to see him KO characters offstage with just his voice. I want to hear Kirby and his cute accent squeak "Fus Ro Dah!" I want to see my absolute favorite game of my absolute favorite genre with my absolute favorite artstyle in Smash. This would be nothing less than a dream come true for me.

Dragonborn for DLC!
Also, please come visit the Dovahkiin thread!

---

I'll abstain on more characters. I don't know what to think and I want to try to avoid complicated leak discussions. K.Rool's reveal was probably one of the hypest since I didn't know he was coming. Pity you can't go anywhere without everyone shoving the new leak in my face, so I guess more than five unique characters are confirmed.

Sure, I'd love more - Dovahkiin and Tails chief among them - but we'll see what we end up with. At this point, we've got K.Rool and Ridley (and Squirtle back) so I'm really happy. I think the only characters who can hype me more would be the Dragonborn and Tails. I'm honestly getting a bit bored with speculation centering on the same five characters now, so I'm about ready for the game to just come out.
 

TCT~Phantom

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Thought I ended the day my b.

Dovakin

0% chance

I’m sorry CaptainAmerica CaptainAmerica , you are too late. if we did this a week ago, I would have done 10%. But I have been Grinched. As such, here we are.

90% want

I like Skyrim. Not my fav elder scrolls but it’s a lot of fun. Solid 9/10 game.

More characters (besides inkling and Ridley)

100% Chance

I have been grinched. Even besides that, we were gonna her two more unique in my eyes anyway.

100% want.

More content is more content. Why would I want less?

Nominating sora rerate x 5
 
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Sari

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I think the Grinch leak is probably legit which is great since the characters are amazing picks but unfortunate as it ruins a lot of the speculation which was to inevitably come anyway. For the purpose of this thread I'm going to do my best and try to ignore the leak when it comes to chance ratings unless we get undeniable proof that it's real (by that I mean leaked gameplay footage or an official Nintendo confirmation).

I also second what RealPokeFan11 RealPokeFan11 said in that we should also start giving DLC ratings for each character as the release date is soon approaching.

-----

Dovahkiin

Base game chance: 0%
DLC: 5%

Even when ignoring the whole Grinch leak, Dovahkiin has zero chance of making it in the base game. The roster was decided by the end of 2016 and at the time Elder Scrolls had no relation to Nintendo in the slightest. Bethesda has apparently talked to Nintendo about Smash recently so I guess he has a shot as DLC, but if Bethesda wants Smash representation they'll probably go with Doom Guy since he's way more iconic.

Want: 5%
I'm against realistic/gritty characters in Smash unless they have a long and deep history with Nintendo. Only reason I gave him a 5% is because Elder Scrolls is really big and his inclusion means we could possibly hear Kirby yell FUS RO DAH!

-----

Concept: More than five unique newcomers (excl. Ridley/Inkling)

So with Simon, K. Rool, and Isabelle confirmed this concept basically means at least 3 unique newcomers right? In that case...

Chance: 95%
Even before the Grinch leak I thought we would get at the very least 3 more newcomers (originally I thought we'd get Incineroar, Skull Kid, and Isaac). The box theory was dumb from the beginning and love or hate Incineroar he just didn't seem like the type of character that would be the final unique newcomer.

Want: 100%
If anyone rates this lower than 100% then I’m just going to assume it was a typo or they were drunk/tired/trolling. Why would anyone want less characters?

-----

Nominations: Kat & Ana x5
 
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I'm a bit emotionally exhausted with Smash honestly, So I might take a break from this soon.

Dovahkin I'm not going to bother with

More than 5 unique characters

Simon
K Rool
Isabelle

2 to go, I think we're getting them, even ignoring the leak

Chance 90%
Want 100%

More characters, duh

Nominate Daroach x5


Any idea if we'll get scores?
 
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Dovahkiin - Chance: 10% (45% when DLC season starts), not going to happen yet. Want - 70% This is a very good idea.

7+ Newcomers, 5+ minus Inkling and Riddles - Chance: 101% (pretend it's 100%). Like it was over at Incineroar. Want: 100%. Who really will say no to more truecomers?

Noms: Unique Puzzle Game Rep x 5
 
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Heh, guess the title was too big, eh? Will be a constant this week probably.

Rating quickly before updating noms, today was hectic. For all my ratings I’ll ignore the Grinch leak, as while I feel it’s real I’d rather assume it could not be.

The Dragonborn

Chance: 4%
Points against: he’s western, he’s generic, he technically might compete with Doomguy, who arguably has more history.

But hey, even his generic design is pretty iconic, with a lot of iconic imagery attached. Skyrim’s influence can’t be understated - open world games chased it for 6 years, and it still holds up. It’s also a huge deal for the Switch, and Bethesda is a huge ally.

All in all I can see him make it in eventually.

Want: 60%
He fulfills every requisite I have for a third party, but I can’t find myself getting too excited. It’s more of a surprise factor. If he has a good moveset, though, I won’t mind.

I want to hear Kirby go ‘Fus Ro Dah!’ though.

More than 5 unique (so, after Simon, K. and Isabelle, more than 2)

Rating this with my pre-leak feelings

Chance: 80%
The absolute minimum I expect is 2. For what it’s worth, my max is 6. (Ended up being pretty right if the leak is true) Statistically speaking, that’s 4/5th results that match this, so there we go.

Want: 100%
Obv will want more characters. Just as more stages, that’s really a no-brainer.

Now personally, I wish the companion text leak saying Ray was planned had come up when we rated Ray, wonder what scores we’d have had.

Edit: Oh yeah, Chorus KidsX5 (can’t believe I started nominating them 2 days before this, maybe I’m a leaker)

Nominations coming up soon.
 
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Debated on whether I should edit my last post, but decided to double post so the bump would make people notice. I hope that’s alright.

Merric (Fire Emblem) x160
Concept: Character alternate costume DLC x145
Barbara the Bat x140
Susie Haltmann x139
Slime x138
Project Zero/Fatal Frame Protagonist x132
Sans as a boss character x132

150 - 101

Stage: Poke Floats x130
2B x126
Daroach x125
Saki Amamiya x125
Xurkitree (Pokémon) x123
The Prince (Katamari) x123
Guzma (Pokémon) x120
Rhythm Girl x120
Zeraora (Pokemon) x118
Klonoa x117
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x115
Concept: Pikmin Newcomer x115
Concept: Cross series Echoes x115
Pokemon Trainer (Gen 2) x114
Gooey x113
Raiden (Metal Gear) x110
Tora & Poppi x102

100 - 51

Concept: Ken Masters alt Costume for Ryu x96
Viewtiful Joe x95
Chorus Kids x92
Concept: Only 4-6 newcomers for base roster x90
Silvally x86
Concept: Historical Character x80
Earthworm Jim x79
9-Volt x78
[Rerate] Steve? x77
Yu Narakumi x76
Frank West x75
Toon Zelda x75
Joker (Persona) x74
Concept: Any Minecraft representation x74
Veronica x73
[Rerate] Sora x70
Stage: Melemele Island x70
Quote x68
Item: Breidablik x65
Concept: Break the Targets & Board the Platforms stage builder x65
Endou Mamoru x62
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei Character x56
Leo (Fire Emblem) x55
Concept: DLC character pass x55
Concept: Wars Characters x53
Takumi (Fire Emblem) x51

50 - 25

[Rerate] Spyro x45
Donbe and Hikari (Shin Onigashima) x44
Adeleine x44
Kat & Ana x43
Concept: Unique newcomer with low support (less than 20 supporters on Smashboards) x40
Concept: Xenoblade newcomer x40
Stage: Ultra Space x35
Assist Trophy: Chun-Li x35
Box Theory x34
Concept: Unique puzzle game rep x29
[Rerate] Gengar x26
Dixie Kong & Kiddy Kong x25
Blacephalon (Pokemon) x25
Master Chief x25

Under 25

Blog Theory x24
[Rerate] Concept: Zelda newcomer x20
Stage: Yoshi’s Crafted World x20
Sub-Zero x17
Concept: Modern Kirby Stage (Post Kirby Air Ride) x15
Concept: Custom Moves return x15
Concept: Custom Alternate Colors x15
Alexandra Roivas x15
[Rerate] Cranky Kong x15
Big Boss x15
[Rerate] Excitebiker x11
[Rerate] Porky Minch x11
Ryuhi (Flying Dragon) x10
Metal Sonic x10
Dr. Lobe (Big Brain Academy) x10
Cross (Xenoblade Chronicles X) x10
Break the Targets x10
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x10
Concept: Dragon Quest content x10
Bub & Bob x10
Conker x10
Concept: Danganronpa music x10
Volleyball Girl (NES Volleyball) x8
Stage Builder x8
Zeke (Xenoblade 2) x6
Stage: Gyromite Stage x5
Nia (Hyrule Warriors) x5
Concept: Valve Newcomer x5
Stage: SR388 x5
Concept: Playable Indie Character x5
Blaze the Cat x5
Alm x5
[Rerate] Octoling x5
Yandere Chan (Yandere Simulator) x5
Concept: Team Rocket as a Pokémon Trainer Echo x5
Cooking Mama x5
Playable Master Hand x5
Pam (Stardew Valley) x5
Captain Syrup x5
Concept: Return of Palutena’s Guidance/Codec Calls x5
Concept: Free DLC characters x5
Jin (Xenoblade) x5
Concept: Assist Trophy DLC x5
[Rerate] Black Shadow x5
Doshin the Giant x5
Stage: Mute City Melee x5
[Rerate] Lloyd Irving x5
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x5
Bartz Klauser x5
Stage: Tetris x5
Elite Beat Agents x5
Erdrick x5
Meloetta x5
King Hippo x4
[Rerate] Ayumi Tachibana x4
Concept: New Yoshi item x4
Black Mage x4
Stanley the Bugman x3
[Rerate] Ninten x3
Creeper x3
Concept: WarioWare newcomer x2
Concept: F-Zero newcomer x2
Assist Trophy: Creeper x2
Diskun x1
Item: Wumpa Fruit x1
Birdo x1
Goomba x1

Merric crosses 150 noms. The top seven’s being shaken up, a lot: Susie Haltmann drops from second to fourth, Barbara the Bat holds steady, Character Alternate costume DLC jumps from fourth to second, Slime goes from seventh to fifth, and Project Zero/Fatal Frame protagonist and Sans as a boss character tie for sixth place.

Gengar climbs out of the pit of under 25 nominations.
 

Artix

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Jul 9, 2018
Messages
252
For the sake of this rating, I will ignore the Grinch leak for now. I think it's legit, but I'm not convinced until Nintendo made an official announcement.

Anyways...

Dovakhin

Chance: 1%
I don't think we're going to get another third-party characters in Ultimate's base roster. Even then, he's a Western third-party character and thus he might compete with Doomguy for the spot as the Bethesda rep in Smash. I gave it 1% because Skyrim has been released on the Nintendo Switch.

Want: 0%
As much as I like Skyrim, I don't think Dovakhin would fit in something like Smash Bros. at all. Besides, I would rather want Doomguy to represent Bethesda in Smash than him.

More than 5 Unique Newcomers (except Inking & Ridley)

Chance: 85%
I assume this also excludes Simon, King K. Rool and Isabelle. If that's the case then, I'm pretty confident that we might get at least 1 or 2 unique characters before the game's release. I'm saying this as if the Grinch leak never existed...

Want: 100%
I'm pretty sure all of us here want more characters and stages in Smash. So, yeah, the more characters they're gonna add in Smash, the more reason I would buy the game.

Nominations:
Melemele Island Stage x5
 

Al-kīmiyā'

Smash the State
Premium
Joined
Apr 22, 2010
Messages
2,011
Dovahkiin want: 0% (5-10*)

He would be a really hype character. However, his abilities aren't especially unique, and I don't care for the horned helmet he would probably sport.

more than five newcomers want: 100%

My most wanted characters haven't been announced yet, so I don't think it would make much sense to give this a rating lower than 100%. Maybe if I thought less development on characters would make the physics more to my liking, but I don't think that's plausible.

Nominations:

Merric x5
 

Rayleigh

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Sep 11, 2018
Messages
292
Ignoring leaks:

Chance: 5%

A promising relationship between the companies is good, but not enough to really push the Dovahkiin into the roster proper. Even when you consider the Dev Team going the 'Canon Default' Route of a Nord Warrior (Male, likely female option too) that we see all over Skyrim's promotional material, It's not the easiest concept to whip up while feeling original. A sword/shield warrior with a bow and some items (and maybe a shout or two)? Sounds a little familiar. The Dovahkiin is likely to wait until DLC for a chance at the roster, which is perfectly fine...who cares how a character gets in, so long as they get in? (Unless You're Dark Pit...maybe one day you'll feel like a character and not a glorified re-skin).

Want
: 80%

The salt alone from the Cat Rogues and Lizard Mages (and, really, anyone who's not a Nord) not gettingtheir Dovahkiin is amusing to me. That, and the prospect of a solid moveset is tantalizing at best.
 
Joined
May 7, 2018
Messages
934
Location
United Kingdom
Switch FC
SW 5950 1333 3717
Well the leaks might change this up but for the sake of the thread I will disregard them.

Dovahkiin:

Chance - 0.1%

Skyrim is iconic but there is way too much competition for third parties this time around and being a western character doesn't exactly help. Oh and do I need to mention once again limited roster space?

Want - 5%

I haven't played Skyrim but from what I have seen this could be quite a fun character. However I do not know enough about them to say I want them.

More than 5 unique newcomers except Inkling and Ridley:

Chance - 99%

Well we have already got three since and I am certain with 43? Days left there is 2 or 3 uniques left. Box Theory is completley stupid fight me.

Want - 100%

Of course I want more fighters... Come on Bandana Dee and Lycanroc.

Nominations - Rhythm Girl x5
 
Joined
Jul 29, 2014
Messages
890
Location
Duwang
Switch FC
SW 6027 0894 6117
I'm neutral on the Grinch leak so I'll be ignoring It.
Dragonborn
Chance: 25% (DLC)
Skyrim was quite a popular and successful game. And apparently Bethesda has talked with Nintendo about Smash from what I've heard. At the same time we haven't seen a western third-party yet and I don't know if something like The elder scrolls franchise really fits into Smash.

Want: 30%
There are other third-party characters I'd rather see. However I'd undoubtedly enjoy all the Todd Howard memes that would spawn from it if it were to happen.

More than two unique newcomers left.
Chance: 50%
We'll undoubtedly get another Smash direct soon with atleast two unique newcomers like last time. It's gonna depend on if we'll get another event like a mini direct or a seperate newcomer reveal.

Want: 100%
Most of my wanted characters aren't in yet. Why would I not want more content?

The prince x5
 
Joined
Jan 7, 2013
Messages
1,329
Abstaining from Dovahkiin

5 unique newcomers past Ridley and Inkling

Chance: 75% - It wouldn’t be that hard seeing as how we only need two more. Although we were warned that the roster would likely be a lot smaller so I’m not willing to say it’s anywhere near guaranteed.
Want: 100% - Who wouldn’t want this? I’m still holding on to hope for Isaac.

Nominations: Project Zero/Fatal Frame protagonist x5
 

aarchak

Smash Ace
Joined
Jul 29, 2018
Messages
501
Location
The blast zone
EVIDENCE.gif

Hey, here's a bit of evidence against the Grinch leak. There are significant differences between the leaked field and the real one from E3. Most notably, there are differently colored parts, different clouds, the waterfall on the left is moved, and the ice crystals on the battlefield are different. Whether this kills the leak or not, I think it's definitely something to consider.

Either way, I think the Grinch leak is fake, but I only think like 3 characters have a chance anymore, so I'll be rating DLC only now.

Dovahkiin

Chance (DLC): 1%
Hey, not a 0%! The reason I think that Dovahkiin has a small chance is because Skyrim is on the Switch. Sakurai might consider him for that.
Want: 20%
I don't care much whether he's in or out. I'd be fine with either.

More than 5 new newcomers

Chance: 100%
It's happening, Grinch leak real or not. Considering there are only 2 more characters left for this, I think it's good.
Want: 100%
I would want this. The more the merrier, and I want as many characters as possible. Why would anyone NOT want this?

Nominations
Character alternate costume DLC x5
 
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UtopianPoyzin

Smash Champion
Joined
Sep 10, 2018
Messages
2,881
Location
Uhhhhhh
Switch FC
SW 1975-0838-2970
Because of Mr. Grinch, I'm going to have to abstain for today, except for "More Than 5 Newcomers", which is a 100% want. I'd love for new content to be added any day! I could easily name 10 characters that I'd love to see, and it's difficult to cut any in my mind. 5 or more is ideal in my book.

Nominations: Quote x5
 

Kotor

Luminary Uppercut!
Joined
Mar 8, 2014
Messages
2,709
Abstain on Dovahkin

More than 5 unique newcomers

Chance: 75%
Want: 100%

Well since Echo Fighters don't count, we're currently sitting at 3/5 since E3. Even with The Grinch running amok, DLC would outright confirm this concept especially since "Everyone is Here" makes it so every veteran is back via the base roster. I could see DLC adding 7 or more characters. Besides, who doesn't want more characters? I am under the belief that Sakurai's "Don't expect too many new challengers" comment to be about Ultimate having less than Smash 4's roster newcomer count. After all, each game, the total number of newcomers added had increased. Smash 4 gave us 17 + 4 via DLC. Ultimate has 5 + 4 Echoes which is still less than Smash 64's total character count.

Toon Zelda x5
 
Joined
Oct 1, 2008
Messages
580
I look forward to the reaction imagery that follows the final Direct. If all logic follows, then seeing Illumination's Grinch getting bodied by Incineroar over and over again will be like drinking the finest nectar.


Dovahkiin

Chance: 1%
A sad case, since Bethesda deserves at least a little representation in any worthwhile video game crossover, if not Elder Scrolls. But, they never did port Skyrim to the Wii U, and the game's more renowned for its moddable PC version at any rate. Also competes with Doomguy as a Bethesda rep, and Dovahkiin hasn't got anything on Doomguy in terms of history and influence.

Want: 50%
I suppose I would not reject it - Skyrim is definitely a cultural video game cornerstone at this point. Without a Nintendo bias, he'd probably be a frontline candidate.


More than Five Newcomers (Excluding Inkling, Ridley, Ice Climbers, Pokemon Trainer, Snake, Pichu, Young Link, and Wolf)

Chance: 0%
Sakurai before giving us Ridley, the sole brand new newcomer of E3: "We hope you aren't expecting too many newcomers."
Sakurai after revealing Simon and K. Rool, the only two real newcomers of the August Direct: "We're going to be more modest with our character reveals from now on."

Funny how people only think Sakurai's lying when the lie accommodates their expectations. Funny how they never see any of the stages or the modes as programming work. Funny how they always think characters can be put into Smash as easily as they can be typed into a wishlist. Funny how they think resources and time are infinite for video game developers.

Oh, no wait, that's not funny at all. But since the appropriate adjectives would break courtesy here, it's best to leave it at that.

Want: 99%
Who doesn't want more characters? Besides any of the over-stressed programmers at Sora Ltd, of course. Wanting something is very different from actually expecting it, something the internet fails to understand on a daily basis.


Nominations
Quote x5
 
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Joined
Jul 28, 2013
Messages
7,962
Location
Infinite Glacier
Abstain on both.

This new leak is a pain for speculation; it's so good, you want it to be real, and neither side can give good evidence for or against it, so it's stuck in limbo until the next direct. I'm sure the next character's position in the mural (Ken) will either make or break it.

I may as well nominate, though:

Steve? x2
Gengar x2
Chorus Kids x1
 

PeridotGX

Smash Champion
Joined
Jun 8, 2017
Messages
2,899
Location
That Distant Shore
NNID
Denoma5280
Switch FC
2036-9032-5151
Double abstain on Dokavhim. Everythig I could say has already been said.

More than two more uniques (Why was it phrased so weirdly?)

Chance: 85%. Even before the Grinch leak I thought we were getting 3 more newcomers (a Pokemon, Bandana Dee, and Geno). However, that hanged on the thought of getting a Robin-esque reveal trailer before the final direct. With that looking less and less likely, I started to lose hope. But now the legit looking Grinch leak came in and I don't know.

Want: 95%. Who doesn't want more? Only reason it isn't 100% is that we could get bad characters.

Nominations: CSEx5
 

DaUsername

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Aug 6, 2013
Messages
469
Location
In that corner over there
NNID
DaUsername
Switch FC
SW-1418-0536-1998
Grinch vs. Box: The Final Showdown
Chance: N/A
I don't know what to believe anymore.
Want: 100%
The roster we have now is pretty great. But it's always nice to have more characters.
Abstaining from Todd Howard.

Predicting 0% for both of tomorrow's characters.
Noms: Chorus Kids x5
 
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