Rate Their Chances- Smash Ultimate Day 340 - Lara Croft (Tomb Raider)

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Nihilego

Chance: 35%
The only thing that this Ultra Beast has over the rest of the competition is that it's the forerunner of the Ultra Beasts and one of the most prominent ones outside of Buzzwole and Pheromosa. It has a unique design archetype that would lead to a fairly interesting moveset and appearance as it has a Rock/Poison typing allowing it to showcase move properties or effects not seen yet, such as Poison typed specials damaging over time, and stage control with rock moves.
However, compared to the other UBs I've mentioned, Nihilego doesn't have much going it's way compared to those two, even compared to popular picks such as Decidueye or Incineroar, not to mention a probable Gen 3/Hoenn Pokémon.
I'm honestly surprised it's not even in a Poke Ball, because that's all I can see this little interdimensional parasite getting.

Want: 45%
It would fit the bill as a UB and stand out from
the rest of the Pokémon thus far, not to mention celebrating the series 20th anniversary game, so I'm actually okay with seeing it get in. I'm not actively wanting it by any means, but I'm okay with it if it got in.

Nominations:
Chorus Kids x6
Ayumi Tachibana x4
 

FooltheFlames

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Nihilego

Chance: 2%
I don't think this Pokemon has much of a chance over the others. It is an Ultrabeast yeah, but there are just better choices out there for the next Pokemon rep who are more recognizable.

Want: 10%
It might make for an interesting move set, who knows? And it would be fun to see an UB vs a legendary (Mew2)
 
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Nihilego

Chance: 5%
Nihilego isn't the worst pick out there, but it's not really that popular to my knowledge.

Want: 5%
There are just a ton of other Pokemon I'd rather have. Silvally, Mimikyu, Gengar, etc. Honestly I think it would be cooler for Nihilego to show up as a part of an Ultra Space themed stage than as a fighter

Nominations:
Silvally x5
Zeraora x5
 
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Nihilego

Chance: 10%
While there are other Pokémon that are getting more attention, such as Decidueye, Incineroar, Lycanroc, Tapo Koko, and supposedly Gardevoir and Gothitelle, I could see Nihilego being shoehorned in as a wildcard character during a Pokémon newcomer's trailer as an invader, similar to Richter in Simon's trailer. But there's also another Ultra Beast that is more fit for Smash (Buzzwole), and Nihilego isn't the most popular beast, so I'm playing it safe with a 10%.

Want: 95%
While my favorite Ultra Beast and my most wanted newcomer is Xurkitree, I would be really happy if any of the Ultra Beasts made it into Smash Bros in some way, as playable, Pokeball, or even a stage boss. Nihilego would also make a very interesting character with an original moveset. It could have moves such as Leech Life where it would latch onto a fighter's head and drain their health to recover its own, Sludge Wave as either a laser or rush attack, etc.
 

Sari

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Katrielle Layton

Chance: 1%
Third party slots are already limited and I don't see why she would make it in over her more iconic dad. It'd be like if they added Pichu but not Pikachu. Even if Hershel Layton did make it in, I'm not sure if they would go out of their way to make Katrielle as an echo.

Want: 20%
I'm usually against third parties, but the Layton series is basically entirely Nintendo so I'm not bothered in that aspect (the colorful artstyle would also help her fit in well). I've honestly never played a PL game though from what I've seen she seems like she could work as a Layton clone and utilize puzzle-solving techniques. That being said, Layton deserves the spot more than her.

Nominations:
Terry Bogard x10
 
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5,786
Ninten x253
Django x235
[Rerate] Phoenix Wright x230
Thwomp x226
Linkle x225
Reinhardt Gets a Trophy x225
Rowlet x220

Over 200

Concept: Hanafuda Character x207
Ray x203

200 - 151

Balloon Fighter x190
DeMille x188
Papyrus x180
Terry Bogard x177
Concept: Disconfirmed Characters as DLC x175
Concept: Fire Emblem Spear User x163
Louie x160
Concept: All-Star Versus x158
Tsubasa Oribe x155
Snip & Clip (Snipperclips) x155
Fire Emblem Three Houses Protagonist x155

150 - 101

Concept: Octopath Traveller Character x150
Concept: More than five unique newcomers (excl. Ridley/Daisy/Inkling) x150
Stage: Poke Floats x130
Barbara x122
Klonoa x117
2B x116
Pokemon Trainer (Gen 2) x114
Item: Beast Ball x114
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x110
Concept: Pikmin Newcomer x110
Rick/Coo/Kine x109
Raiden x105
Susie x104
Daroach x102
Tora & Poppi x102

100 - 51

Jin Kazama x100
Concept: Ken Masters alt Costume for Ryu x96
Viewtiful Joe x95
Gooey x94
Edelgard x90
Nathan Drake x90
Gardevoir x90
Concept: Only 4-6 newcomers for base roster x85
Project Zero/Fatal Frame Protagonist x82
No More Stages x82
Fjorm x80
Veronica x73
Yu Narakumi x71
Zeraora (Pokemon) x69
Item: Breidablik x65
Concept: Punch Out Newcomer x65
Toon Zelda x64
Endou Mamoru x62
9-Volt x62
Concept: Historical Character x60
Frank West x60
Concept: Metroidvania-like Adventure Mode x60
Dovahkiin x60
Slime x58
Chorus Kids x56
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei Character x55
Concept: Wars Characters x53

50 - 25

Takumi (Fire Emblem) x50
[Rerate] Spyro x45
Rhythm Girl x40
Amaterasu x40
Stage: Ultra Space x35
Assist Trophy: Chun-Li x35
Black Knight as a boss character x30
Guzma (Pokémon) x30
Dixie Kong & Kiddy Kong x25
Blacephalon (Pokemon) x25

Under 25

Adeleine x24
Master Chief x20
Concept: Break the Targets & Board the Platforms stage builder x20
[Rerate] Concept: Zelda newcomer x20
Sans as a boss character x20
Hilda (The Legend of Zelda) x20
Reimu Hakurei x20
Sub-Zero x17
Earthworm Jim x15
Concept: Modern Kirby Stage (Post Kirby Air Ride) x15
Concept: Custom Moves return x15
Concept: Custom Alternate Colors x15
Alexandra Roivas x15
Donbe and Hikari (Shin Onigashima) x14
Ryuhi (Flying Dragon) x10
Metal Sonic x10
Dr. Lobe (Big Brain Academy) x10
Cross (Xenoblade Chronicles X) x10
Break the Targets x10
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x10
Concept: Dragon Quest content x10
Volleyball Girl (NES Volleyball) x8
Stage: Gyromite Stage x5
Nia x5
Concept: Xenoblade newcomer x5
Concept: Valve Newcomer x5
Concept: SR388 Stage x5
Concept: Playable Indie Character x5
Blaze the Cat x5
Alm x5
[Rerate] Octolings x5
[Rerate] Gengar x5
Yandere Chan (Yandere Simulator) x5
Concept: Team Rocket as a Pokémon Trainer Echo x5
Silvally x5
King Hippo x4
[Rerate] Ayumi Tachibana x4
Diskun x1

Phoenix Wright overtakes Thwomp, Linkle, and Reinhardt gets a trophy and lands in third place. Reinhardt’s trophy also ties with Linkle at fifth.

Ray flies past 200 nominations.

Rick, Kine, and Coo (strangely misspelled Cool until now) work past 100 noms.

Chorus Kids, Dovakhiin, and Concept: Metroidvania-like Adventure Mode climb their way through the 50 nom mark.

Guzma and Amaterasu break 25 noms.

New challengers arrive: Silvally, with 5 nominations to its name, and a rerate of Ayumi Tachibana, with 4 nominations.

ShinyRegice ShinyRegice Just so you know, Ken is already scheduled to be rated, so your nominations for him are invalid.
 

Erureido

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Katrielle Layton

Chance and Want:



Regarding Chance:

Katrielle's only factor going for her is relevancy since she has taken over as the new main protagonist of the Layton series and has an anime airing that stars her.

But those two things aside, there's one major issue that holds her back from being in Smash, and it's that she isn't her dad, Professor Layton. If anyone will be picked to represent the Layton series on the playable roster, it's Professor Layton, not her. Professor Layton has been around for far longer and is thus far more recognized and popular. Additionally, he is considered to be the face of the series. Sure, he may not be the central main character any longer, but he still has a major role in the anime, and he is even set to have a key role in future Layton's Mystery Journey games because of Katrielle's goal of finding him.

But I feel like I'm going too far into the future, aren't I? Come to think of it, that's also an issue for Katrielle that's related to her competition with the Professor. Since the roster was decided back in 2015, this was at a time when Katrielle wasn't even revealed to the public and the last main series Layton game (Azran Legacy in 2014) still featured Professor Layton as the star.

She could work as a potential Layton echo, but again, with the timing of the roster's decision, I doubt she'd be added as a Layton echo if Layton is added to the base roster. She might have a better shot at being added as DLC, but again, I'm certain Professor Layton would get priority first.

Regarding Want:

I like Katrielle, but I think Professor Layton should be added first before she can be considered as a potential Smash candidate.

------

Predictions

Savvy Stylist character: 4.91%

No comment.

------

Nominations

Phoenix Wright (Ace Attorney): x10
 
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Katrielle Layton
Chance - 3%
I'm not even sold on Profesor Layton getting into Smash anytime soon as playable... let alone her. But I guess there's always that small chance of her getting Echo'd onto the Profesor if he did make it in.
Want - 30%
She's cute. I never really was sold on the series getting into Smash whenever Profesor Layton popped into discussion, but she is a bit more appealing to me as she has more character to her design than him. He's pretty dull in comparison to her to be honest at first look.

Noms 10x Gardevoir
 
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Katrielle Layton

Chance: 2%
She’s the lead of the franchise now (to my chagrin). She stars in an anime, and her game has been released on 3DS and Switch. Unfortunately for her, it was released in 2017, so she has really no chance of getting in. Plus, let’s not kid ourselves, when it comes to Smash it’s the Prof or noff (sorry).

Want: 1%
Pros of Katrielle Layton: she’s cute.
End pros.

Cons of Katrielle Layton: to be frank, her game was probably the biggest letdown of last year for me. I’m a huge fan of the Layton games, so I just had to buy Layton’s Mystery Journey. But then... the story was virtually nonexistent. The puzzles were either way too easy or not satisfactory to solve. And Katrielle is such a poorly written character - like a Maya Fey knockoff, but without personality and depth. A huge Mary Sue, a dumb person who just looked smart because the story and world reassembled themselves around her.

I desperately wanted to like Katrielle, but I don’t. I hope she doesn’t even get in as an Echo.

Style Savvy character prediction: she’ll be underrated for sure. 4%

Nominations: NintenX5
RayX5
 
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CHAMPIONX9

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Katrielle Layton
Chance: Will not happen in our timeline

Want: 40%
How bad could it be? Still have a Layton universe move set.

Nominate: Amaterasu X 5
 
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Katrielle chances: 0.1%
Katrielle want: 0.1%
Barely avoids a double zeroes by the potential prospect of being a Layton echo I guess. But from what we've seen from the Direct I don't expect more characters from unrepresented series, diminishing Layton's already fairly low chances (he'd make sense as a Smash candidate, but his chances are diluted in an ocean of other worthwhile ones), and then she would have to get in as a Richter-like deal.

I personally touched the Layton series, but only barely, and not with Katrielle's game, so I don't really have a strong reason to want her.

Adding nominations later because the save draft option doesn't appear on mobile for some reason. I want to check the list before doing the same error as with Ken.

Edit: adding noms.
New item: Beast Ball x2
Concept: no more stages x4
Concept: Metroidvania-like adventure mode x4
 
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Katrielle Layton

Chance: 0.1%
The professor is the face of the series thus he should take priority over her. She also doesn't fit the timing of the project plan.


Want: ABSTAIN

Savvy Stylist character: 5.36%

Punch Out newcomer x10
 
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Katrielle Layton
Chance: 5%
Want: abstain

Not before her father, who still hasn't a great chance either way.


Noms:
Metroidvania-like adventure mode x10

Savvy stylist character prediction: 5.42%
 

BlueMagician

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Katrielle Layton

Chance: 0.5%
If there's going to be a Level 5 rep, it's going to be Jibanyan. That's something I'm certain about.
Aside from that, she wasn't around for the ballot and I don't think she'd get around her competition in Professor Layton, Jibanyan, and even Endou of Inazuma Eleven.

Want: 25%
I'm not opposed to her being a fighter and I have no problem with Kat, but I'm not exactly in a rush to see her as a fighter in Smash either. She's more likely to appear as a trophy, Assist, or part of someone else's moveset, and I wouldn't mind any of those.

Nominations
Terry Bogard, all in
 
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zeonie888

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Katrielle Layton
Chance: 1%
I don't really see her getting in before her father

Want: 50%
Could be interesting to see how she would play
 

AlphaSSB

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Katrielle Layton

Chance: 1% - Not getting in before the professor himself, who's chances aren't that great anyways.

Want: 0% - No interest.

Nominations: All to Deconfirmed Character DLC
 
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New Layton
chance
I don't think we will see a layton anytime soon in Smash. Not to mention that other 3rd party charcters that have a higher chance than professor layton even more have a higher chance than her. Only way I see her in is as a echo for the professor
.5%

want
yeah not interested. I didn't even want professor layton so I really am not intrested in her sorry.
0%

nominating
rick,coo and kine x5
earthworm jim x5
 

CaptainAmerica

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Rule 63 Layton

Chance: 0%
Want: 0%

Does she even have a support thread?

Anyway, if anyone from the Professor Layton series got in, it would be (surprise, surprise) the professor himself. There are only a few cases of a character getting in before the titular character of that series, and that's only in cases like Legend of Zelda where the title character is not the playable one.

Layton had a lot of supprt in the Sm4sh days, but it seems to have cooled a bit since then. Still, that all explains his likeliness, not hers. Just because Richter came in as an echo of Simon doesn't imply that every thrid-party newcomer will then get an echo as well. Especially if, as the game is a puzzle game in the first place, the moveset will need to be almost entirely made up.

No thanks

Nom: Dovahkiin x10
 
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Katrielle Layton

Chance: 1%
The only way I see her getting in, is if she piggybacks as an echo of Professor Layton in his trailer, and he has around a 20% chance.

Want: 0%
I don't care about or know much about this character.

Savvy Stylist prediction: 0%
 
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Katrielle Layton

Chance: 0.5%

This was honestly close to being a straight zero. If Professor Layton gets represented, which I'm fairly unsure about to begin with, her father is absolutely going to be the first pick. Her only shot is as a late echo, and there are many other characters I see getting that treatment before her.

Want: 0%

No interest whatsoever. While I wouldn't mind Layton representation at all, her father should be the character chosen for his series and I don't think he should come with an echo.

Nominations: Gardevoir x10
 

Artix

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Katrielle Layton

Chance: 0%
If we're getting someone from Professor Layton series, it has to be the titular character, which I'm not sure if he'll make it into the base roster at this point. The only way I could see her is if they made her an echo of her father. Otherwise, I wouldn't mind if they somehow make her a trophy in Ultimate.

Want: 0%
I haven't played the recent games to know who she really is. Her father has a much better chance of getting in, if anything.

Nominations:
Jin Kazama x10
 

P.Kat

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Katrielle Layton

Chance: 5%
I don't think Katrielle would make it in before Professor Layton, I'm not even sure how much of a chance Layton himself has.

Want: 30%
The more the merrier I always say, if Sakurai can make an interesting moveset relating to her puzzle solving abilities, then I wouldn't mind too much if she made it in.

Nomination:
Amaterasu x10
 

Klimax

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Katrielle Layton

Chance: 0%
She could become the new face of the Layton franchise (since the game is more popular with girls than boys, they went for a female main character), it doesn't change the fact that she's too new to have any chance. At this moment, Prof Layton is still way more popular than her, so, i don't see it happening.

Want: 1%
While i would like to see some Layton's representation, i don't like her, her father is way better.
 

Kotor

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Katrielle Layton

Chance: 0%
Want: 0%

I feel Professor Layton himself would have to get in first. Having never touched the Layton series, my only familiarity of it was that crossover the Professor had with Phoenix Wright. If you're gonna pull the Echo card on Katrielle, go ahead, but I'm starting to get turned off by the idea of Echo Fighters for the sake of having one.

Nominations
Rowlet x10
 

Jomosensual

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Katrielle Layton

Chance: 5
Not going the full 0 because she did have a game come out recently, but I really don't see her getting in because IIRC it wasn't in time for the ballot.

Want: 0 Never played anything out of her series, so I have no real attachment to the character.

Nomination: Nathan Drake x10
 
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Katrielle Layton

Chance: 1%
He only hope is pulling a Richter and joining as an echo of her Father, if he even gets in.

Want: 0%
Daughter or not, I don't care for knockoff, replacement versions of beloved characters. Professor Layton is wanted, not the "I can't believe it's not" version.
 
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Abstaining because who?

Savvy Stylist Prediction: 6.55%

Nominate Concept: More Than 5 Unique Newcomers x5
Hilda x5
 

Sid-cada

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Katrielle Layton

Chance - 0% - Under what circumstance would she get in over Professor Layton? He's more iconic to both his own franchise and to those outside it. I can't see why she would get in over him.

Want - 10% - Layton first, please. He's more than enough to get in.


Prediction

Style Savvy Character - 2.34% - Not likely...


Nominations

Reimu Hakurei X10
 

PK_Wonder

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Katrielle 0.05%
I suppose she could appear as an Echo, but that's assuming the prerequisite of Daddy Layton making it happened. While Layton isn't impossible, he himself seems to have a very uphill battle and Katrielle is no Richter-relevant equivalent (yet). I like her design and personality though.

Nominate:
Amaterasu x10
 

Al-kīmiyā'

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Katrielle Layton want: 0%

IMO Professor Layton barely has the moveset potential to qualify for Smash, and I have even less of an idea what Katrielle would do. She has no support thread, and I'm not going to comb through the plot synopsis (and spoil the game) to find things that could be attacks - She's only in one game, so it's probably less than Professor Layton.

Nominations:

FE Spear User x10
 
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Katrielle Layton

Chance: 0%
She wouldn't get in over Prof Layton, and his chances aren't so good either.

Want: 0%
I really have no idea who she is tbh. Haven't played any of the Prof Layton games I wouldn't really be that interested in seeing her in smash

Nominations:
Silvally x5
Zeraora x5
 

BluePikmin11

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Personally, I think Katrielle has a chance, but that is only because she could be a possible echo for Professor Layton. I think Descole holds a better chance being an echo, being one of the fan-favorite characters of the Layton series. Not much to say about her chances honestly, though she is a newcomer worth keeping an eyebrow to say the very very least.

---------------

x10 Hanafuda character
 

TCT~Phantom

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Layton the Daughter

1% chance

If Layton made it in I could see them using his daughter as an echo. However, I have already been very negative towards Layton himself. With the current climate for third parties I am a skeptic. Ballot support may help Layton but it would not have helped his daughter. As such, I doubt she would be an echo of the professor even if he made it in.

Abstain want

Have not played her game, need to play more PL games. I played the first three, need to play the rest.

Day over, rate Concept:Style Savvy Character and predict Scorpion:
 

Sari

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Style Savvy Character

Chance: 5%
The fact that it had a song in SSB4 helps a bit but I think it's still an obscure pick to put into Smash. WFT got in since Wii Fit was a massive success, but I don't think Style Savvy is near that level of notability.

Want: Abstain
Could be interesting to have another joke character like WFT, but I don't know much about the series so I won't comment.

Nominations:
Terry Bogard x10

Dumb question but are we supposed to predict the upcoming character's chance %, want %, or both?
 
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Slow day for RTC, huh? Guess not many thought highly of Kat. Although, it feels sad to learn how many people underplay the Professor’s chances. Oh well.

Reminder: posts less than two sentences long will not have their nominations counted. Abstaining is fine though.
Ninten x258
Django x245
[Rerate] Phoenix Wright x240
Reinhardt Gets a Trophy x230
Rowlet x230
Thwomp x226
Linkle x225

Over 200

Concept: Hanafuda Character x217
Ray x208

200 - 151

Terry Bogard x197
Balloon Fighter x190
DeMille x188
Concept: Disconfirmed Characters as DLC x185
Papyrus x180
Concept: Fire Emblem Spear User x173
Louie x160
Concept: All-Star Versus x158
Tsubasa Oribe x155
Snip & Clip (Snipperclips) x155
Fire Emblem Three Houses Protagonist x155
Concept: More than five unique newcomers (excl. Ridley/Daisy/Inkling) x155

150 - 101

Concept: Octopath Traveller Character x150
Stage: Poke Floats x130
Barbara x122
Klonoa x117
2B x116
Item: Beast Ball x116
Pokemon Trainer (Gen 2) x114
Rick/Coo/Kine x114
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x110
Concept: Pikmin Newcomer x110
Jin Kazama x110
Nathan Drake x110
Gardevoir x110
Raiden x105
Susie x104
Daroach x102
Tora & Poppi x102

100 - 51

Concept: Ken Masters alt Costume for Ryu x96
Viewtiful Joe x95
Gooey x94
Edelgard x90
No More Stages x86
Concept: Only 4-6 newcomers for base roster x85
Project Zero/Fatal Frame Protagonist x82
Fjorm x80
Concept: Punch Out Newcomer x75
Zeraora (Pokemon) x74
Concept: Metroidvania-like Adventure Mode x74
Veronica x73
Yu Narakumi x71
Dovahkiin x70
Item: Breidablik x65
Amaterasu x65
Toon Zelda x64
Endou Mamoru x62
9-Volt x62
Concept: Historical Character x60
Frank West x60
Slime x58
Chorus Kids x56
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei Character x55
Concept: Wars Characters x53

50 - 25

Takumi (Fire Emblem) x50
[Rerate] Spyro x45
Rhythm Girl x40
Stage: Ultra Space x35
Assist Trophy: Chun-Li x35
Black Knight as a boss character x30
Guzma (Pokémon) x30
Reimu Hakurei x30
Dixie Kong & Kiddy Kong x25
Blacephalon (Pokemon) x25
Hilda (The Legend of Zelda) x25

Under 25

Adeleine x24
Master Chief x20
Concept: Break the Targets & Board the Platforms stage builder x20
[Rerate] Concept: Zelda newcomer x20
Sans as a boss character x20
Sub-Zero x17
Earthworm Jim x20
Concept: Modern Kirby Stage (Post Kirby Air Ride) x15
Concept: Custom Moves return x15
Concept: Custom Alternate Colors x15
Alexandra Roivas x15
Donbe and Hikari (Shin Onigashima) x14
Ryuhi (Flying Dragon) x10
Metal Sonic x10
Dr. Lobe (Big Brain Academy) x10
Cross (Xenoblade Chronicles X) x10
Break the Targets x10
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x10
Concept: Dragon Quest content x10
Silvally x10
Volleyball Girl (NES Volleyball) x8
Stage: Gyromite Stage x5
Nia x5
Concept: Xenoblade newcomer x5
Concept: Valve Newcomer x5
Concept: SR388 Stage x5
Concept: Playable Indie Character x5
Blaze the Cat x5
Alm x5
[Rerate] Octolings x5
[Rerate] Gengar x5
Yandere Chan (Yandere Simulator) x5
Concept: Team Rocket as a Pokémon Trainer Echo x5
King Hippo x4
[Rerate] Ayumi Tachibana x4
Diskun x1

Reinhardt’s trophy and Rowlet overtake Linkle and Thwomp and tie for fourth place. Whoever was nominating Linkle and Thwomp should probably get back at it, because at this rate, Hanafuda character, Ray and Terry Bogard are looking to take their spots.

More than 5 unique newcomers breaks 150 nominations.

Jin Kazama, Nathan Drake and Gardevoir all pass 100 nominations (in fact, they’re all tied with 110).

Amaterasu howls past 50 noms.

Reimu Hakurei and Hilda leave the under 25 club.

Edit:
Style Savvy Character

Chance: 5%
The fact that it had a song in SSB4 helps a bit but I think it's still an obscure pick to put into Smash. WFT got in since Wii Fit was a massive success, but I don't think Style Savvy is near that level of notability.

Want: Abstain
Could be interesting to have another joke character like WFT, but I don't know much about the series so I won't comment.

Nominations:
Terry Bogard x10

Dumb question but are we supposed to predict the upcoming character's chance %, want %, or both?
Predictions are for what the character’s aggregate chance score is, but I’ve seen people predict want too a few times.
 
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