Rate Their Chances- Smash Ultimate Day 340 - Lara Croft (Tomb Raider)

Quetzal77

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Layton
Chance: 10% / Want: 0%
With third parties, we probably won't see very many. Simon is guaranteed imo and I think if we get another it'll be someone from Square Enix or Ubisoft.

Skull Kid
Chance: 0% / Want: 50%
I don't see any Zelda newcomer who isn't an echo getting in now. It's Impa or bust I think.

Nominations: Medusa x 5
 
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Professor Layton might have a better shot for DLC than the base roster as the bar isn't set as high for third parties as evident by Bayonetta's inclusion (Which I would hardly consider a household name). It depends on how Sakurai is handling third parties this time around and what he had to go through to get the current five on board. As far as Japanese third parties are concerned. I feel like Layton is one of the few significant ones left that can be considered for the game. It was a highly regarded series during the DS era, most particularly in Europe and Japan. Also extending further from the gaming medium from merchandise to novels, mobile spin off's, a movie (A good one at that, which is apparently a rarity in the games industry) and now an anime series too. The series has definitely expanded itself to a larger audience.

His one real obstacle is wether Sakurai would opt to include Jibanyan instead if he were to consider a character from Level-5 instead. While Yokai Watch was huge success in Japan, from what I've heard, the series didn't do as well outside of it, whereas the Layton series was more well received worldwide. This may or may not work in favor of either one or the other, depending on Sakurai's views.

Overall, for his chances %10 for base game, %35 for DLC.
Want %100

Professor Layton and Phoenix Wright are pretty much the only two third parties that would actually legitimately excite me.

Abstaining from Skull Kid.

Medusa x5
 
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Layton chances: 10.8%
What I wrote for his day:
He's fairly popular and has consistently appeared on Nintendo consoles and is owned by a company in very good term with Nintendo. Layton may or may not he in a better position than other third-parties; I generally give them fairly low scores, but cumulated it gives a low chance of getting none of them.
Pretty much the same as before, although I now give a slightly lowered chance score for third-parties not owned by companies already invested in Smash. (And in hindsight I should have done that for hantae and Shovel Knight.)

Layton want: 22%
What I wrote for his day:
I briefly touched one of his games once, and I actually thought he'd be an excellent idea at some time, but I didn't know he wasn't owned by Nintendo then. He'd be okay I guess, but I don't imagine being particularly excited for him.
Nothing changed.

Skull Kid chances: 8.8%
What I wrote for his day... oops, I was unavailable back then. So I gave him a 8% chance which is what I estimate I could have given to him back then with a bonus for him surviving Ultimate's Assist Trophy massacre so far. He's probably the most popular Zelda "one-off" besides the already deconfirmed Midna, but I don't imagine him being high priority.

Skull Kid want: 45%
He's a fairly memorable character and could be interesting, but I don't feel like he really needs to be playable; I'd be fine with him being an Assist Trophy again... even though I don't really like what he does as one in Smash 4, but it fits his tricky nature.

Lip prediction: 10.35%
Travis prediction: 14.98%

Nominating:
Returning game mode: Smash Run x10
 

Erimir

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Seems like both of these characters are attracting walls of text from people. You don't need to write a thesis for each single character, people (and I realize I'm not the most concise in my ratings, but sheesh). And making your wall of text larger by enlarging the font makes me less, not more likely to read it.

Professor Layton
He's basically a Nintendo-exclusive character, which might give him a leg up on some other 3rd-parties (particularly ones that are less iconic than Pac-Man or Sonic or Cloud). On the other hand, his series has had declining sales. But overall sales are pretty strong.

He doesn't necessarily fit the best, and doesn't have an obvious move set although obviously you can come up with something.

He also doesn't tend to rate super high in fan polls. He's not totally off the radar, but he's not so high that you'd say they'd definitely be strongly considering him. And it's probably still the case that 3rd-parties need some extra oomph, particularly if they require negotiating with yet another company.

Professor Layton chances: 9%
He's still quite plausible due to overall sales and decent popularity. But being from an unrepped 3rd-party company is still an impediment.
Professor Layton want: 20%
This does not appeal to me.

Skull Kid
Skull Kid got an (annoying) AT in Smash 4, and hasn't been shown returning in that role. Skull Kid doesn't have a problem for adaptation to Smash. He has an obvious Final Smash with bringing the moon crashing down, and such. I question how interesting he would be, but not particularly worse than many other characters.

In terms of the Zelda series and his competition...

-He doesn't have a lot of continuing relevance, in contrast to Impa, who is in most Zelda games in some form
-He's not the new flavor, in contrast to the Champions BUT he is one of two obvious choices for his game, while deciding which Champion to include might be harder
-He's less polarizing than Tingle, although Tingle has had more appearances AND his own starring titles
-Vaati has been the primary antagonist in more games, but has less popularity
-He has more popularity than some similarly situated characters like Ravio, Hilda, Yuga and Tetra
-Midna would be competition, except she's returned as an AT, and her Twili form seems extremely unlikely (and even then would probably end up a Zelda Echo. Kinda sad that they didn't even use Midna as a palette though...)
-He's obviously more prominent than characters like Groose and Linkle and Zant and such
-He wouldn't make a good Echo Fighter, unlike Impa or Hilda, or even a good "non-Echo" clone/semi-clone like Toon Zelda

So he is one of the stronger Zelda possibilities. Impa probably has a better shot because of how easily she could be a Sheik Echo combined with her continued relevance, but as a unique fighter he's one of the strongest Zelda candidates that hasn't already been disconfirmed.

A note on his popularity though... online polls are not scientific, and a single poll from 2012 showing him as the most popular character when in later polls he doesn't even make the top 20 makes me think that maybe that poll was manipulated somehow. Even if he was highly popular in 2012, it seems that it didn't hold up. But he still has high popularity as far as Zelda newcomer candidates go.

I'm not really confident that Zelda will get a newcomer, much less a totally unique one, but Skull Kid is probably the most likely at this point. I would say, however, that he is not the overwhelming frontrunner. Vaati, Tetra or Toon Zelda or one of those other ones are possible as well. It's also the case that Zelda, in contrast to some other series, is really strongly focused on just a trio of characters... other characters rarely recur and rarely are that prominent... which is why we have yet to receive any character that's not a version of Link, Zelda or Ganondorf.

Skull Kid chances: 12%
Skull Kid want: 30%
While I liked Majora's Mask since I love the Zelda series, it isn't my favorite Zelda game, and Skull Kid was not my favorite part about it. I find the character somewhat annoying. I'd actually prefer Tingle tbh.
 
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Diem

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Abstaining from Layton.

Skull Kid:

Chances: 25%

How does Fire Emblem have more characters than Legend of Zelda? It's kind of mindboggling that there haven't been any major new additions since Melee with Zelda/Sheik and Ganondorf. As such, it's possible that Sakurai might have looked to finally increase the Zelda representation, though Young Link's return may inhibit that, as it could be seen as Zelda regaining a slot and not needing a new one.

Or, in the case of Skull Kid, it may enhance that. Since Skull Kid's adversary is Young Link, it'd be fitting to bring him in (it'd make for a pretty cool trailer). And of all the non-Ganon villains in Zelda, Skull Kid remains the most popular and enduring. Not to mention he's also had some decent support over the years, making him one of the most likely Zelda characters to be added, if any are to be added.

However, he's still farther back in the line than a lot of other characters who are highly requested, so I don't think he has too much of a chance to make it in this game.

Want: 60%

Majora's Mask is my second favorite Legend of Zelda game, so I'd love to see Skull Kid become playable and finally get some more Zelda characters for once. The moveset possibilities would be really interesting and make him a unique fighter overall.

Like many people, I'd rather see Midna/Wolf Link, but she's already been deconfirmed. Skull Kid has a bit more of a reputation, though, since Majora's Mask was a classic N64 game, so he's had more time to gain traction and support.
 

Sid-cada

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Profesor Layton

Chance - 16.75% - Just a general doc of a few points due to how hard it is to get as many characters as we once did. Otherwise, I think he's in more or less the same spot. He's got some popularity, and being the flagship of Level-5 who is buddy-buddy with Nintendo is a clear plus. Sadly, he just doesn't have that big of a draw compared to many third parties, and they'd have to get fairly creative to make an interesting moveset.

Want - 70% - While I am slightly worreid about his moveset, otherwise I have no objections to him getting in, which is more than can be said about many third parties.


Skull Kid

Chance - 8% - A small boost due to not having his old trophy appear yet. The main thing that he has going for him is popularity, but I think he is soundly eclipsed by other characters at this point. Otherwise, he's kinda hard to justify in comparison to other characters.

Want - 20% - Can I have another Toon character first?


Predictions

Lip - 8.45% - Should be going down...

Travis Touchdown - 25.45% - Doing down yet again...


Nominations

Nihilego X5
 

Diem

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:ultlink::ultyounglink::ulttoonlink::ultzelda::ultsheik::ultganondorf:
:ultmarth::ultlucina::ultroy::ultike::ultrobin:ultcorrin:

I don't know about you, but they look even to me, even though there are multiple incarnations of Link and Zelda present.
Ah, I see with Young Link it's now even. I was going off of my memory of Smash 4, hadn't taken into account the new lineup.

Either way, the fact that Legend of Zelda hasn't gotten a new character since Melee (or Brawl if you want to argue Toon Link) is absurd. Meanwhile Corrin became a character before the game even had an international release. Not that I would have wanted any Fire Emblem characters to be cut, since I know a lot of people really like them and I wouldn't want to see them lose out, but I think the Fire Emblem jets can cool for now and let Nintendo's second most popular franchise get a new character for the first time in 17 years.
 
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Professor Layton

Chance: 10%
I doubt he did too well in the ballot since most of his fan base is rather casual and doesn't have widespread pressure towards getting him in smash. If perhaps Nintendo wanted to be strategic and promote a loyal 3rd party franchise similar to Bayonneta in smash 4, Layton would make a good choice since the series has 8 Nintendo exclusive games, and 3 games on the 3DS.

Want: 100%
I love the Professor Layton series, Unwound Future is one of my all time favorite game. The music and art style is fantastic and unique, the puzzles are engaging and actually test your critical think, and the plot twists are absolutely bonkers. Professor Layton is a Nintendo all-star in all but ownership, most people are surprised when I tell them he's 3rd party.


Skull Kid:
Chance: abstain

Want: 60%
Majora's Mask is my 2nd favorite Zelda game, and Skull Kid was a great villain who blended evil insanity and comedic immaturity. I'd love to have him and Think he could make an interesting fighter, but if he doesn't get in im not gonna lose sleep over it.


Medusa x5
 

CaptainAmerica

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Professor Layton

Chance: 20%
Want: 0%

Seems that he’s got a good relationship with Nintendo, but I don’t think of him as an incredible gaming icon, and I’m biased against third parties on principle unless they’re incredibly iconic (or unless I’m being hypocritical).

Despite the fact that people can develop movesets for literally anything, the fact remains that he’s from a puzzle game series and really doesn't do much outside of sit and wait for you to solve something before proceeding. Thus, most of his moveset would have to be original. I’m also not a fan of his overly saccharine design - it reminds me of those posters in elementary schools where everyone and everything has the same ridiculous smile.

Layton for me is in the same boat as Shantae, Shovel Knight, etc.: there are way too many other third parties who are much more important gaming icons, or even important first parties who have continually been neglected, and should have priority. I think we as a community here do overestimate how well certain characters did on the ballot, and Layton’s another one of those characters you don’t hear much noise about outside of his support thread.

Waaaaa: 39.5%
Nomination: Mewtwo x5
Majora’s Mask (because let’s face it - that’s what people want)

Chance: 10%
Want: 50%

A recurring Zelda character...who was important for one piece of heart in all of Ocarina, and looked completely different in Twilight Princess. Everyone who wants him wants him solely because of Majora’s Mask, so he’s for all intents and purposes a one-off from that game.

MM was a great game, but gets flack just since it followed what is still considered one of the best games of all time. Still, he’d originally gotten passed over in Hyrule Warriors for Tingle, of all people, which really set Americans off.

Zelda has been criminally underrepresented in Smash. Yes, it’s got a fair amount of content, but based on importace to Nintendo, Zelda should be just below Pokémon and Mario, not Kirby and Kid Icarus (and Fire Emblem). It’s had basically the same representation since Melee: 5 characters, two of which are semi clones, and a lot of cases where the moves were cherry picked to fit a style and not the other way around. Granted, I don’t want too many changes to Link or Zelda for the next installment, but the Dorf or Tink could probably get a few moves more important to their respective games (and use their accessories for more than a random taunt)

I’d prefer Urbosa, Midna, or Revali for a new Zelda character, but a final smash involving a Moon Landing would be amazing.

Doomguy prediction: 13.2%
Nomination: Mewtwo x5
I guess I'd reverse their chance scores - Layton at 10%, and Skull Kid at 20%. Otherwise nothing changed.

Nom: Tails x5
 
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Profesor Layton
Chance - 7%
I don't think he's happening. Limited spaces and not that insanely popular. He could surprise me, but I'm doubting it.
Want - 0%
I have no attachment to him. And I'm not sure his potential interests me anyways.

Skull Kid
Chance - 14%
Missing AT, but he is a relic of the past in a ongoing series. Those aren't that likely, but it's possible something about him got Sakurai's interest.
Want - 60%
He looks pretty cool, he'd spice up the rather bland LoZ roster for sure. I think he'd be cool, but I'm not really rooting for him either.

Nominations 5x Monster Hunter


Aww all their faces together are adorable. Though LoZ has horrible variety which is something I knock FE for. 3 Links and 2 Zeldas, eww. I guess Marth, Girl Marth, Red Marth, Manly Marth, Magic Marth, and Animal Marth doesn't look quite as bad when you look at LoZ's lack of creativity.
 

Lord-Zero

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Professor Layton
Chance: 7%
- Hmm...Jibanyan would probably be Level-5’s choice.
Want: 4%
- He’s not his daughter.

Skull Kid
Chance: 4%
- Hmm...with most of the Zelda characters no longer in sync, he could have a better chance now.
Want: 0.01%
- He’s not Lana.

Predictions
Lip: 5.5%
Travis: 19%

Nominations
Katrielle Layton (Professor Layton) x4
Neptune (Neptunia Series) x1
 
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It’s a mystery to me how you came to make those associations. I guess if characters within a series have consistency in design, that somehow equals unoriginality?
Mostly from a fanart that I can't refind at the moment. Was a happy Marth with his hands open out to form a rainbow shaped arc of all the Marths like Girl and Fire Marth.

Though to be fair, they all have the same generic anime face with very little difference in build. Marth, Roy, and Lucina especially. Ike varies more in his masculine Radiant Dawn take, but of course it's less popular version of him. Marth, Lucina, and Ike share blue hair. Roy and Ike share hair style. Robin and Marth share similar hair style, Capes. Swords. Lots of blue in the armors. These folk could pass as brothers and sisters for the most part. While Fire Emblem has pretty diverse cast members, the leads are usually pretty cookie cutter.

I mean compare Brom, Nephenee, Calill, Illyana, Ranulf, or Largo to Marth. There's a lot more differences between them then there is from Marth to our cast.

Don't be too annoyed though, I like :ultike::ultrobin:ultroy::ultmarth: for the most part. I'm just not fond of :ultlucina: and have to play :ultcorrin: to decide on him. Though Lucina would of generally been less redundant if it wasn't for Marth already having his Roy. But seeing as I really supported :ultwolf:'s return, I'm a bit hypocritical there since :ultfox: already had :ultfalco:. But to be fair, Wolf varies more from Fox than what either Roy or Lucina ever did from Marth!
 
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Icedragonadam

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Professor Layton

Chance: 10%
Want: 70%

With the tight spots, the new Revelations of Bayonetta and the Ballot, I don't think he'll make it for the base roster.

Skull Kid

Chance: 15%
Want: 90%

It's not looking good for him. For the same reasons as Layton. He has an edge due to him being 1st party though. Shame as I rated him higher before E3


Lloyd Irving x5
 

Kitty-chan

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Professor Layton

Chance: 15%
Nyo chaaaaaaaaange innnnnnnnnn opinioooooooooonnnnnnnnnnyaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa~ He's third party, but decently popular nyaaa~

Want: 10%
Opinion hasn't changed nyaa~ I have nyo interest in him nya~ Especially when Furudo Erika exists nya~


Skullkid
Chance: 15%
Popular character, but suffers from irrelevancy and nyalot of competition nyaa. Nyalso the possibility of Zelda even getting a nyucomer at all seems unlikely, so he'll likely just remain held back in one of those damn AT's nya...
Want: 85%
Opinion hasn't changed nya. Nyalong with MM being great in general imo, Skullkid has plenty of potential nya~ Just imagine the destruction nya! With Great Bay back, we could have two moons to end the world nya!!


Nyominations
Tingle: x10
 

Erureido

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Going to finish up the other things like I promised.

Skull Kid

Chance: 20% --> 20%

I still think this chance score is appropriate for him: he's a popular Zelda character who now has the added advantage of not being an Assist Trophy at the moment. Still, being a one-off is what hurts him much like the other Zelda newcomer candidates.

Want: 0% --> 0%

I can see the moveset potential, but I have zero interest in this character.

------

Predictions

Lip (Panel de Pon): 7.45%

No comment.

Travis Touchdown (No More Heroes): 18.93%

No comment.

------

Nominations

Only 4-6 newcomers in Smash Ultimate's base roster: x5
 

Nerd Saga Nate

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Abstaining today.

Reinhardt trophy x10
...as in, Overwatch Reinhardt?

That's oddly specific.

Professor Layton
Chance: 5% -
Level-5 may be an unofficial part of the Nintendo family, and he may be exclusive, but he's not a particularly relevant character; in addition he's not really a fighter.
Want: 10% - Eh... I used to want him, but not anymore.

Skull Kid
Chance: 5% -
His assist trophy is MIA, but Zelda's already got 6 characters and I doubt anything that isn't Mario or Pokemon is breaking that number.
Want: 0% - Not a fan of Majora's Mask.

Nominations
Sakura Shinguji x5
 

Kotor

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...as in, Overwatch Reinhardt?

That's oddly specific.
Reinhardt from Fire Emblem getting in as a trophy. Originally from the Japan only Thracia 776, Reinhardt became a breakout character thanks to his infamy as a ORKO unit in Fire Emblem Heroes.
Smiling_Reinhardt.png
 
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DjinnandTonic

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People that think that Layton has any chance compared to Jibanyan just do not have perspective on the matter. I'm a big fan of Level 5, and I live in Japan and like both series.

Jibanyan is like Pikachu whereas Layton is like Bayonetta. Jibanyan is literally a household name, even now, as his series is seeing somewhat declining sales. It doesn't matter. The anime is still bringing in that sweet merchandise money. Jibanyan might as well be Level 5's mascot like Sonic is for Sega. Sure, Sega makes tons of properties, but EVERYONE knows Sonic.

Level 5 also has their hand in Dragon Quest development, which is really what catapulted them to fame. Layton is a drop in the ocean, as much as it pains me to say it. I don't know what his popularity/notoriety is like in Europe, where he seems to be a big deal... but if the Project Plan for Smash5 was completed in 2015, when Yokai Watch was still crushing Pokemon sales, I can't imagine anyone even blinked in Layton's direction.

Layton:
Chance: 1%
Want: 20% (I'd rather have a DQ character if L5 needs representation, honestly.)

Skull Kid:
Chance: 25% (Possible, but I think Impa or one of the Champions is more likely. I kind of doubt we will get more than one upgraded Assist Trophy, and my money's on Ashley.)
Want: 70% (I love this guy and I want him and Impa and Midna and all the Champions as playable, as well as a proper Mage Ganondorf...)

Noms: all for Monster Hunter
 
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Layton: Abstain

Skull kid:

Chance: 10%
He's missing from the catalog of assist trophies in the demo, but that doesn't mean much considering how much stuff was missing from the demo. Majora's mask has become reasonably popular in recent years' and has received a successful remake on the 3ds. Skull kid definitely has a chance, but I think its rather slim.

Want: 100%
My number 2 most wanted character after Bandana Dee. I don't have high hopes, but I would be ecstatic if he was confirmed!
 
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Troykv

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Skull Kid

Skull Kid/Majora (*Insert creepy laughs*)

Chance: 15%



Essencially the same arguments that Midna... so... just change Wii U Remaster for 3DS Remake.

Want: 50%

He would be nice, but I don't care that much xDU
Same scores, same idea, same everything.

I abstain with PL.

___________

Predictions

Lip: 23.5%
Travis Touchdown: 13.4%

Nominations:

Ayumi Tachibana x5
Leon Kennedy x5
 

andimidna

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Skull Kid:
Inches up a bit, but I’m getting that bad feeling again that there’s still not gonna be another actual Zelda newcomer. With less characters, it seems hard to imagine even considering representation of series, but thankfully that contributes to popularity, which is the aspect that counts as he has enough of it to make sense. Far from a lock though.
Chance: 17%
Want: 75%
I just want more Zelda. If I can’t get Midna, Skull Kid or Impa sound great.

Professor Layton:
Chance: 13%
Not much has really changed here. He’s still lower-ish down on what you’d expect the priority 3rd parties to be, but he’s certainly on that list of potentials.
Want: 70%
Sure

Predictions:
Lip: 18.5%
Travis: 14%

nominating Hanafuda character
 

Scamper52596

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Professor Layton

Chance: 8%
With the limited amount of new fighters we're getting this time around, and the possibility of a third party already being leaked I don't have too much faith in other third parties outside of the current companies that already have ties with Smash until the potential DLC period. I'll give Layton the Professor a chance of 8%.
I could see it happening someday, but I'm not so sure about the base roster of this Smash title...

Want: 50%
No real attachment to the character, but I wouldn't mind seeing him. He seems like he would fit in with the cast nicely.


Skull Kid

Chance: 10%
I feel like upgrading from being an Assist Trophy is very difficult to do. Little Mac was able to do it, but he had a new game after Brawl along with renewed popularity and a unique gimmick that was an interesting mechanic for Smash. I almost feel like being an Assist Trophy isn't actually a good thing when it comes to a character's likely-hood of being next in line to become playable; rather, it's starting to feel more like the 'considered but not quite' category that certain characters who aren't relevant enough, popular enough, or with limited move-set potential get thrown into. And I feel like it's really difficult to climb out of that pit once a character is there. Waluigi hasn't been able to do it, and he has become really popular in recent years as he continues to be used in popular Mario spin-off titles. Several other popular characters have already been shown off as Assist Trophies, and we're only half-way through the AT reveals. I believe whatever Assist Trophy characters from 4 that might upgrade to playable status are probably ones that can be Echo Fighters such as Dark Samus since they would be very easy to implement and have models ready.

Ultimately, I believe it's more likely that a character could become playable when they're not already Assist Trophies from previous games. Mainly because the characters who aren't Assist Trophies are usually too important in their own series to be Assist Trophies. Despite their popularity nobody ever wonders why K. Rool or Dixie Kong aren't Assist Trophies for the Donkey Kong franchise, or why Waluigi has been an Assist Trophy since Brawl while Daisy hasn't. Yet, Daisy is the one finally confirmed to be playable while Waluigi isn't, and K. Rool had his popularity acknowledged via a Mii Fighter costume (not an Assist) while Dixie Kong was straight up planned to be playable in Brawl. There seems to be something about certain characters that apparently Sakurai sees as Assist Trophy worthy or not, and I'm starting to feel that being an Assist Trophy is actually more of a detriment to a character's chances than it is a benefit. That all being said, because of the Ballot I think Skull Kid has a small chance of upgrading due to his popularity and the Mask's iconic nature, but I'm not counting on it. I'll give Skull Kid with Majora's Mask a score of 10%.
Dawn of the next Smash update, an Assist Trophy he likely remains...

Want: 30%
I love Majora's Mask, and I actually think Skull Kid would be a neat character. I have other Zelda characters that I want way more, but after those ones he'd probably be my next choice because I feel he deserves a playable slot before many Zelda characters.

Nominations
Tetra x 5
 
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Professor Layton

Chance: 4% (<-10%)
Sakurai's words regarding third-parties make me wonder just how many they can afford to reach out to this time. Level 5 has been a big contribution over the years, sure - but they're not nearly as big as most other names in terms of game history. With space being as limited as it is, Ultimate must have very, very few cameo additions to really pass around this time.

Sakurai and his crew could contact Ubisoft, or Mircosoft, or Activision for their significantly-more iconic properties. Level 5, who doesn't have half as much global recognition to boast about, would only be seen as a chance because of the same logic that makes WayForward, Yacht Games, or Rare Ltd. "have a chance": because they're nice to Nintendo, and made them lots of nice, profitable games, and would be easy to work with. With Konami of all people on board this iteration, however, I fail to see how that argument really holds any water.

Layton is ultimately a double-A honorary Nintendo character, nestled between Shantae below him and Banjo-Kazooie above him. While his base is still strong and his series still ongoing, I daresay that it's already past its prime, especially when the brains behind the puzzles has since passed away. Worse is Level 5's shift in focus to that blatant piece of waifubaiting known as Katrielle Layton, as if the Layton series ever needed to stoop to such tactics. For all its fame and exposure, it's still a modern franchise that's yet to find a true legacy status for itself, and there's just too many other candidates with real legacies to give Layton much thought.

And that's all without going into the fact that Layton is not - I repeat, not - a character who beats other characters up, let alone summons giant puzzles to beat people up for him. Moveset logistics is a very real obstacle, especially when Sakurai cares so much about representing characters properly.


Want: 60% (<-40%)
It pains me that the Layton series is moving away from its original identity, enough so that I can't help but pine a little for a true Smash representation of Layton himself while Sakurai is still the project director. Layton would stand out well in the roster, and his addition would also be a good way of appealing to the European territories, seeing as their love of him is a notable force. That all presumes that Layton can ever be translated satisfyingly into Smash at all, of course...but anything's possible.


Skull Kid

Chance: 15% (<-23%)
A tighter newcomer list, plus Ultimate dividing Legend of Zelda's long history across its Zelda veterans this time, plus the fact that we already have Young Link to represent Majora's Mask, plus the fact that every one-off Zelda villain has, until now, failed to make it into Smash equals? At least Geno actually has Sakurai's attention, whereas Skull Kid has no such magical trump card hidden up its mask.

Still, he's an old speculation veteran, which means there's always the chance that Sakurai picks him to please another long-standing support community. And it's not like he can't offer an interesting moveset and personality in the process either.

Want: 1% (<-12%)
If the dozen other Zelda one-shots can't get in, then I don't want to see Skull Kid get in either. Isn't Hyrule Warriors enough? Or do musou games just not count? Either way, this score drops because I think Ultimate has plenty of other candidates it should be prioritizing instead.


Predictions:
Lip: 6%
Travis: 2.1%

Nominations
Ninten x5
 
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Joined
Apr 24, 2015
Messages
1,192
Mostly from a fanart that I can't refind at the moment. Was a happy Marth with his hands open out to form a rainbow shaped arc of all the Marths like Girl and Fire Marth.

Though to be fair, they all have the same generic anime face with very little difference in build. Marth, Roy, and Lucina especially. Ike varies more in his masculine Radiant Dawn take, but of course it's less popular version of him. Marth, Lucina, and Ike share blue hair. Roy and Ike share hair style. Robin and Marth share similar hair style, Capes. Swords. Lots of blue in the armors. These folk could pass as brothers and sisters for the most part. While Fire Emblem has pretty diverse cast members, the leads are usually pretty cookie cutter.

I mean compare Brom, Nephenee, Calill, Illyana, Ranulf, or Largo to Marth. There's a lot more differences between them then there is from Marth to our cast.

Don't be too annoyed though, I like :ultike::ultrobin:ultroy::ultmarth: for the most part. I'm just not fond of :ultlucina: and have to play :ultcorrin: to decide on him. Though Lucina would of generally been less redundant if it wasn't for Marth already having his Roy. But seeing as I really supported :ultwolf:'s return, I'm a bit hypocritical there since :ultfox: already had :ultfalco:. But to be fair, Wolf varies more from Fox than what either Roy or Lucina ever did from Marth!
I believe it's this image.

------

Back to the main topic.

People that think that Layton has any chance compared to Jibanyan just do not have perspective on the matter. I'm a big fan of Level 5, and I live in Japan and like both series.

Jibanyan is like Pikachu whereas Layton is like Bayonetta. Jibanyan is literally a household name, even now, as his series is seeing somewhat declining sales. It doesn't matter. The anime is still bringing in that sweet merchandise money. Jibanyan might as well be Level 5's mascot like Sonic is for Sega. Sure, Sega makes tons of properties, but EVERYONE knows Sonic.

Level 5 also has their hand in Dragon Quest development, which is really what catapulted them to fame. Layton is a drop in the ocean, as much as it pains me to say it. I don't know what his popularity/notoriety is like in Europe, where he seems to be a big deal... but if the Project Plan for Smash5 was completed in 2015, when Yokai Watch was still crushing Pokemon sales, I can't imagine anyone even blinked in Layton's direction.

Layton:
Chance: 1%
Want: 20% (I'd rather have a DQ character if L5 needs representation, honestly.)

Skull Kid:
Chance: 25% (Possible, but I think Impa or one of the Champions is more likely. I kind of doubt we will get more than one upgraded Assist Trophy, and my money's on Ashley.)
Want: 70% (I love this guy and I want him and Impa and Midna and all the Champions as playable, as well as a proper Mage Ganondorf...)

Noms: all for Monster Hunter
I think the logic behind giving Layton a better chance over Jibanyan is that Layton has been more successful internationally than Jibanyan. At least here in the United States, Yokai Watch didn't fare too well and more or less has been entirely forgotten. Layton, while no household name, did fare a bit better. I guess it would boil down to whether being massive in Japan outweighs a broader international appeal.
 
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Shorter one today.

Professor Layton

Chance: 15%
(Previous score: 30%)


I overrated him, he's not quite as big or popular as other characters and third parties are likely limited. Level 5 has another competitor too. Still a possibility as he's a notable character with strong Nintendo ties.

Want: 70%

I wouldn't mind his inclusion. I basically consider him a Nintendo character, I like him, and he'd fit in well.

Skull Kid

Chance: 25%
(Previous score: 10%)


Going up because he's lost some major competition and he's a popular one off. I'm still iffy on a unique Zelda newcomer though.

Want: 40%

I would have taken him over the other Zelda assist trophies, anyway. Still not someone I'm too interested in, but I wouldn't be too disappointed by his inclusion.

Nominations: Tails x5
 

Impa4Smash

Smash Lord
Joined
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Messages
1,605
Layton

Chance 15%
His games come out pretty frequently, and he has ties to Nintendo, but I think 3rd Party reps are gonna be kept to a minimum this game, and I don't think he's big enough to make the cut.

Want 0%
Not really a fan.


Skull Kid

Chance 40%
He's a popular character that's appeared in more than one Zelda game, a rarity. His assist trophy is notably MIA, along with other popular AT characters. Zelda has also not had a new rep since Brawl, but Young Link is also back and all the characters go redone, so that might work against him. He did get a Mii costume though in the form of Majora, so maybe he did well in the ballot.

Want 100%
I love Skull Kid. And would love a Zelda newcomer.
 

TCT~Phantom

Smash Champion
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TCT~Phantom
Layton

1% Chance

If by some miracle we get a third party that is not from a company in the game already, I doubt it would be Layton. He would need a lot of ballot support to be the one.

60% want

He’s cool. I know people who would like him.

Skull Kid

20% chance

Surviving the at massacre is good. At the same time I doubt we might get a Zelda newcomer.

100% want

He is cool af. If we got a one time Zelda character I would be ok with him.

Today we got lip and Travis,tomorrow Arle and Qbby. You know what to do.
 

Icedragonadam

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Lip

Chance: 3%
Want: 10%
Again, really obscure character in the west even more so than Takamaru who got Disconfirmed. Arle has a bigger chance since she's more iconic yada yada.

Travis

Chance: 15%
Want: 50%

Seems like one of those Sleeper Newcomers. But again, No More Heroes on Switch was announced after some time after the roster was decided. So I'm leaning no.

Lloyd Irving x5
 
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Travis Touchdown
Abstain from both Chance and Want
----------
Lip
Chance: 0%
Want: 100%
Everything you need to know about Lip:
- Not a highly requested character
- Not very popular in Japan
- Not popular at all in the West
- Not important to Nintendo's history
- Not important to gaming history
- Not important to Sakurai personally
- Hasn't had an important role in a recent game
- Is virtually guaranteed to not appear in any future games
- Shouldn't be seriously considered at this point
 

Burigu

Smash Ace
Joined
Apr 10, 2014
Messages
784
Layton:
Chance: 0.1%
Just because nothing is impossible it's a popular character but from a niche series, not a fighter, AND from a 3rd party, even now the series has a new protagonist. I think his design would look extremely odd in 3d, and not in a good way.

Want: 0%
Not totally uninterested, since I find the series music pretty good, with good art, but I would rather have a lot of other characters over him.


Skull Kid:
Chance: 3%
Popular, with moveset potencial and kind of unique, unless his demand is really high there are a few other characters best suited for a spot, like Impa

Want: 40%
That's a prety high score there, I would be happy to see him as playable but it's not the end of the world if he isn't
 

BluePikmin11

Akko is my dear daughter!
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When I witnessed the de-confirmation of Takamaru as an Assist Trophy and Balloon Fighter being a part of Villager’s recovery special again through E3 footage of Smash Ultimate, I was utterly astonished. I thought those two had the best chance to get in as the retro newcomer pick. It took me awhile to process the news, and I had wondered about which retro newcomer Sakurai had picked if Takamaru was not the one planned for the 2015 project plan. I looked into the remaining retro choices like Excitebiker, Mach Rider, and Prince Sable, quickly dismissing the latter two, only seeing the first choice as the only plausible character. But then, I witnessed a new, but obviously fake Smash leak featuring Lip that happened in the Smash Ultimate Discussion thread. I suddenly started to create connections to Lip and other factors Sakurai stated to be important when he included retros like Pit/Little Mac. I have an unusual amount of confidence for Lip and I want to explain why I have a moderate degree of faith that she will be in Smash Ultimate.

Since Super Smash Bros. Brawl, popularity has been a big factor towards the inclusion of retro newcomers. Pit being in Brawl was the result of being the most requested retro newcomer in America and Japan, noting the foreshadowing in Pit’s trophy description in Melee. This hint led to many fan theories, which caused the support for Pit erupt in a huge scale. Little Mac’s addition in Smash 4 was the result of him being the most popular retro in the West, with Punch Out Wii’s release and the VGTribune poll that was sent to Sakurai at the time of project proposal helping Mac’s inclusion. I think it is safe to say that popularity in the West and Japan will contribute to a retro newcomer’s addition for this Smash. With the Smash Ballot allowing a large number of fans to vote, who could have been the most popular retro request? With the more casual Smash fans likely campaigning for third-parties/Nintendo newcomers like Bayonetta, Geno, Ridley, Waluigi, and K. Rool, it is hard to find anything concrete that would suggest a specific retro being very popular in the West and Japan. Fortunately, I can find out which retro newcomer was extremely popular during the ballot voting period through a process of elimination.

Researching a number of websites like Smashboards, Gamefaqs, and Twitter, I did not find much notable campaigning for Excitebiker, Mach Rider, Prince of Sable, and Takamaru. However, there was one single retro who I have seen consistently campaigned in both the West and Japan. That being Lip. Upon looking into Lip's support during the Smash ballot period, Lip was the only retro I have seen with a truly dedicated following that parallels the likes of the dedicated Daisy fan-base in many ways. As someone who pays attention to retro newcomer support fanbases closely, I know for sure that not even Takamaru and Prince Sable had much discussion and fan-dedication as Lip. I have seen supporters of Lip from the West/East that have passionately made fan art, several videos, and MANY moveset ideas for the flower fairy, with a numerous amount of hardcore PDP fans campaigning a revival of Panel de Ponand Lip being playable in Smash Bros. This following might have been big enough to vote in a grander scale than Takamaru, possibly making Lip the most voted retro in the West and Japan. Lip is the only fanbase I know that would be capable of accomplishing a notable feat in votes.

Now assuming that Lip was the most popular retro, would her being from a Japan-only game stop Sakurai from including the character? Personally, I do not think Panel de Pon’s obscurity would be a huge problem. Sakurai loves his retro characters, especially with Japan-only games. He has shown his love of these titles with Assist Trophies like Takamaru and Sable, trophies like Ayumi Tachibana and Diskun, remixes of Lip’s theme and Mysterious Murasame Castle, and, at one point, was willing enough to make characters from a Japan only franchise playable in the form of Marth and Roy. Hypothetically, If Sakurai saw the huge ballot popularity for Lip, I believe he would immediately jump at the chance. Even if her game was Japan-only, I feel that worldwide demand would be able to make up for her obscurity. Sakurai personally considered Panel de Pon to be a masterpiece, and this alone makes me certain that he loves the the franchise. I would not be very surprised if this quickly enticed him to make Lip a playable character. Lip’s gameplay potential and character individuality would also be a factor Sakurai would be attracted by, with her being a magical flower fairy who would be able to utilize Panel de Pon puzzle gameplay mechanics and the flower effects of Lip’s Stick for a very unique moveset. With these positives going for Lip, I feel that she will be the next retro choice chosen by Sakurai.

Of course, there is the real possibility that Lip’s ballot popularity could have been less than Prince of Sable or Excitebiker. But, I personally doubt it at this point. With two of the biggest retro choices out of the running (Takamaru and Balloon Fighter), the only retro newcomer I feel pretty confident of being the most popular is Lip. Here is hoping my assessment is correct. Lip’s inclusion would do wonders and would help Intelligent Systems finally make a new Panel de Pon game, which would be a blessing for me.

-----------

x5 Hanafuda character
 
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Lip
Chance: 3% - If we're getting a Japan only puzzle girl, it will be the far more popular and iconic Arle Nadja.
Want: 20%

Travis Touchdown
Chance: 8% - I imagine he'd be very low priority on the long list of potential third party characters. One thing he does have going for him is that his creator really wants him in Smash.
Want: 0%

Nominations: Edelgard x5
 
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Burigu

Smash Ace
Joined
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Messages
784
And the day shifts already....

Lip:
Chance:
5%
Unique, but obscure, I can't understand why this game got a Yoshi make up in America, she has some references like Animal Crossing New Leaf, and another Japan exclusive Captain Rainbow, so she is not enterely forgotten, but since we are expecting less newcomers, that means Sakurai has to prioritize certain characters over others, so I am unsure if we will get a retro rep, like in the past.

Want: 65%
Personally I don't have ties with the character but the fact that her support thread is still going strong through the years and games, they have won my sympathy.

Travis:
Chance: 0.1%
Too niche. There are better candidates to choose from. So why him exaltly?

Want: 0%
Not interested at all.
 
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