Rate Their Chances- Smash Ultimate Day 340 - Lara Croft (Tomb Raider)

Starbound

Worlds Apart, But Still Together.
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Funky: 30% chance, 60% want

He's not competing with Dixie or K Rool as an echo! He would simply be a bonus character for the series, which I think is great. Very similar model, so he's an easy echo to make.

Isabelle: 60% chance, 50% want

The new face of AC is getting in at some point. Crazy popular, so likely due well on the ballot. An easy echo too as Villager's moves are transferable.

Octoling: 30% chance / 90% want

Such an obvious echo that it would almost be harder not to include them. The only hurdle would be enough distinct ink colors.

Shadow: 40% chance / 10% want

Don't like Sonic games, but I can't deny the popularity this guy has. A really easy fighter to make that would probably make a lot of people happy.
 
Joined
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We are not rerating Rex and Pyra again for a few reasons

1. We literally just rerated them. Even if I wanted to do an emergency rerate it would be 2 weeks before nominations were even counted for such an idea.
2. This was around when the project plan was speculated to have been done. The latest I have seen it said to have been done on here was 2016 June. Most people from what I saw assumed that the project plan/development started after DLC ended. I feel just learning the project plan officially was done in 2015 December is not really strong enough new info.
3. I myself am against panic rerates. People will attempt to reassess their scores too much to save face. The reason this schedule was put in place is due to a lot of our assumptions being thrown out of wack. We underestimated some characters like Veterans as a whole this time around. We had a larger guess of amount of newcomers. This was due to such a radical shift in info we had from just speculation.

In conclusion, do not expect a Rex and Pyra rerate for some time.
That's fair it is extremely soon after our previous rating, but this news will impact future ratings (Especially Elma's rating tomorrow in particular, probably also an ARMs rating), so I wouldn't surprised to this article used as justification for really high scores in the future. I understand not wanting to do panic re-rates though so we can more variety and keep going with new character entries.
 

Burigu

Smash Ace
Joined
Apr 10, 2014
Messages
784
Isabelle:
Chance: 50%
Pretty high chance from me, Isabelle is the face of Animal Crossing, her proportions are different from that of Villager, (that's why I don't see her as an Echoe option) and Animal Crossing has enough material to pull of something different. She has a lot going for her but I am not too sure if Animal Crossing will get another rep.
Want: 100%
Loved New Leaf, nothing else.

Octolings:
Chance: 5%
Some say they are perfect Echoe material, the thing is that Inkling didn't get any styles from Splatoon 2, so why expect something as recent as the Octolings from the Octo Expansion just released, when the Inkling only have the Splatoon 1 "hair" style?, are people just expecting the original female only Octolings? Maybe in DLC but not in main game.
Want: 100%
Look really cool in Splatoon 2

Shadow:
Chance: 10%
Not a single third party franchise has had two reps in the game, Knuckles is there but I am unsure is this means anything, unlikely until proven true.
Want: 0%
I have never been a Sonic fan and edgy characters, I always prefer to get 1st parties.

Funky Kong:
Chance: 5%
He is an easy Echoe, but I don't see Sakurai just introducing tons of clones just because he came up with an official term for them, I don't see Funky that iconic either, compared to Dixie, Rool or even Cranky so if DK gets a rep I see Dixie or Rool being added, despide how easy is to just put this guy.
Want: 0%
I really didn't like him in Mario Kart Wii, his voice clips were annoying for me, design wise he didn't appeal to me either.
 
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Kitty-chan

Happy Pyromaniac Neko
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Funky Kong

Chance: 35%
Only just became relevant recently and faces heavy competition from K. Rool and Dixie nya. I can seem him maybe getting in as an AT, or perhaps being added for DLC nya.
Increased his chance by 25% percent, due to echo characters being a thing pushed for nya~

Want: 35%
Opinion hasn't changed much from before nya~ If anything, my desire for K. Rool and Dixie has only increased... thus lowering my desire for him nya~


Isabelle

Chance: 85%
Very popular and is the current face of AC nya~ My faith that she'll become playable in smash has only grown with echo fighters being a pushed idea and her nyot being seen in a AT nya!

Want: 100%
Opinion hasn't changed nya. Personally I'd prefer if she wasn't an echo character, but I'll be just as pleased regardless nya~ I love this dog to bits nya!


Octolings

Chance: 1%
We just got Inklings nya~ At least wait until DLC is confirmed or Smash 6 (if that'll even happen) nya. Sure they could be an easy echo character, but I honestly don't see us getting a second Splatoon character so soon nya.

Want: 20%
I don't dislike them or anything, but I just much rather nyot see them yet nya. Inklings are good enough for nyao in my book nya~


Shadow

Chance: 65%

Shadow's AT wasn't seen and echo characters nya nya nya. He's literally a clone of Sonic and is very popular nyamong Sonic fans nya~

Want: 50%
Nyot asking for him, but I'm nyot nyagainst him either nya. Personally I'd rather nyot see a second Sonic rep, but I'm nyot gonya freak out if it happens nya.


Nyominations
Tingle: x5
 
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CometX-ing

Smash Apprentice
Joined
May 20, 2014
Messages
198
Funky Kong, Isabelle, Octoling and Shadow

Chances: 20%, 30%, 10% and 50%
While all of these characters have a chance of making it in as Echo Fighters, only Shadow really has enough going for him in the way of chances. Funky Mode is too recent, Isabelle's AT not being seen yet isn't really enough to reason to expect her inclusion and the Octolings are also IMO too recent. I don't know how much effort goes into clones exactly but I doubt it's just something they decide to add mid development without some groundwork already being present (such as with Lucina and Dark Pit being planned as costumes). And while Funky and the Octolings aren't new characters, Funky didn't take a prominent role in the Donkey Kong Franchise until recently with Funky mode and the Octolings weren't made playable until The Octo Expansion. Isabelle has a different issue in that she doesn't really do anything other than assist you in her own games. Dark Pit, Lucina and Daisy are all far more active in their respective games, so while it wouldn't be too much of an issue for her to be added, the role of an assist trophy just makes more sense for her.

Shadow's biggest road block is the idea whether or not a 3rd party franchise is deserving of a second representative at all. Sakurai could see that Sonic is the best representative for his series and thus any further playable reps aren't needed. Of course, there is reason to expect his inclusion such as a lack of an Assist Trophy and out right being replaced by Knuckles. But it's also possible that he was dropped due to being pretty redundant with the Stop Watch being in the game.


Want: Abstain
I have no strong opinions to more Echo Fighters, and the chances of these guys getting in as original fighters is basically 0% with what we currently know about the game. I wouldn't be against any of them, but I wouldn't care of none of them got in as Echos.

Nominations:
Primarina x 5
 
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Funky Kong
Chance: 20%

I could see Sakurai adding Funky as DK's echo fighter as a way to appease the DKC fans...

Want: 0%

That said, Funky and DK are different even in posture and pose so I wonder how well that'd look. DK's also far more brutal and aggressive and Funky is...well he's a pretty laid back fella who's intelligence probably trumps most the other Kongs. No surfboard is one thing, but no surfboard AND no two leg walk? It won't feel like Funky.

He could make it as a semi clone arguably, but I'm not sure why Funky would be prioritised above Dixie if Sakurai was after a semi clone.

Isabelle
Chance: 80%

Whilst not a lock, this would be the only character I'd feel comfortable putting down with such a high chance score. Isabelle sells herself. She's the face of Animal Crossing(sorry Villager, you're not really since your face keeps changing), the mascot, the adorable lovable assistant loved by all who was deemed popular enough to get an assist and a mii outfit...and she's no where to be seen. Yes, Takamaru ALSO had similar treatment in the last game but if you're talking star power Takamaru doesn't compare to one of the most beloved and famous Nintendo characters not currently in the game.

Want: 80%
Not the top of my list, but she's a big enough starlet that she's within my top ten. If she's Villager's echo? Great! If she's her own character? Great! If she's a semi clone? Awesome. Isabelle fits into whatever fighting niche is needed, and yes I can see her doing all the things Villager does with a more worried expression on her face.

Octolings
Chance: 50%

Seems a bit soon for these guys but they ARE mega popular. Inklings were inevitable, and honestly I thought we may get the Octolings as an alt at first, but it seems not. Perfect Echo fodder, but could equally work displaying OTHER Inkling weaponry that the Inklings miss out on showcasing.

Want: 55%
Not top of my list but I always liked the Octoling girl's design. The guy's I'm less sure on, but that's fitting since I feel the same about the male version of Inkling compared to his female counterpart.

Shadow the Hedgehog
Chance: 20%

Ok, I don't see it happening, but Sonic outcry IS loud. Frankly I think Tails would be a superior second edition seeing as how he's appearing in more and more Sonic games and Sonic team seems to have acknowledged Shadow isn't quite as cool as they originally thought.

Want: 0%(would be negative numbers if I could)

Keep Vegeta the Hedgehog out of Smash Bros. There are very few characters I actively dislike in the video game world, but Shadow is definitely in the top three.

You know how some people find the hapless sidekick archetype annoying? (Toad, Tingle, Slippy, Tails, etc)

Shadow, and indeed most 'badass' rivals are that for me, but amplified ten fold because whilst those 'annoying' sidekicks are doing their best to help the protagonist you're playing, the cool rival archetype is trying so damn hard to impress you by being faster, stronger and have a 'cooler' ability than the main protagonist, claiming to be his rival and constantly getting in the way and being a general pain in the ass at every possible turn whilst being 'deep' with his dark and broody backstory which usually just comes off as wangst when crammed down your throat over and over again

Shadow encompasses everything a 13 year old deviantart user thinks is 'badassl' when making their hedgehog OC(even the damn colour scheme) and it's more irritating to me than papercuts.

Nomination:
Kiran, the Fire Emblem Heroes Summoner X 3
Slippy Toad X 2
 

Gerrothorax

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Jun 13, 2018
Messages
89
Location
Triassic Sweden
Chance
Funky Kong: 20%
Isabelle: 60%
Octoling: 10%
Shadow: 30%

Isabelle gets the highest score for being the face of Animal Crossing. Octolings get the lowest score since their expanded role is way to recent.
Abstaining from want.
These characters are only getting in as last minute clones so their inclusion likely doesn't have any affect on the roster.
Nominations: X5 Slippy Toad
 

Sid-cada

Smash Lord
Joined
Jan 19, 2013
Messages
1,474
Isabelle

Chance - 45% - I suppose echo fighters make her a bit more likely. That and her conspicuous absence from Assist Trophies makes it look like she might be in. She's quite likely in my opinon, though not enough for me to call a lock. I'll give her 7.5% more than last time.

Want - 50% - Depends very heavily on how she will be implemented. If she has teraforming, it's going to be awful, though I can deal with an echo.


Octolings

Chance - 2.5% - While there was an outcry for them to be playable even in Splatoon 1, I think it wasn't enough for them to get in as notable.

Want - 50% - I like Splatoon, but I'm fine with the Inklings. I don't care much either way.


Shadow the Hegdehog

Chance - 10% - While he's posible for an echo, it's entirely dependent on how third parties are handled. If there is nothing about third parites getting echos preventing him from coming in, he's a lock, but I don't think third parites are likely anyway.

Want - 20% - No, not really.


Funky Kong

Chance - 1.5% - With echos, I supose he gets a slight bost. Still, that's all that has happened in support of him. I still have a feeling he may have come in too late.

Want - 50% - Still don't care about him. I can take him as an echo, I guess?


Nominations

Nihilego X5
 

fogbadge

Smash Hero
Joined
Jun 29, 2012
Messages
7,158
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Scotland
lets see

issablle

chances: 50% shes is quite popular and she would be ideal as a clone so it could happen

want: 75% shed be fun (id hope digby would be an alt)

octoling

chances: 30% well we just had splatoon's first character added and im sure theyd add a second but with splatoon's popularity and im sure itll evolve into a huge franchise im sure we'll see them one day in one game

want: 90% through octo expansion theyve really grown on me
 

Erimir

Smash Lord
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DC
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It's still not clear exactly what Echo Fighters are like. Lucina's lack of tipper is not a mechanic that translates well to every echo fighter choice. I don't think they'd make Funky be like DK but with tippers, for example. Dark Pit's two variant specials and unique Final Smash seems like something to consider - can an echo candidate be reasonably well represented by changing just a handful of moves (2-5) but otherwise leaving them identical aside from aesthetics? Characters that need more general changes (like the Marth to Lucina change) it's less clear what kind of changes they'd be looking at, since not every veteran has a mechanic like the tipper.

Funky Kong
His main thing would be to be a DK Echo. Maybe he could have a surfboard for something (different up-B?) but otherwise I don't know what else he'd do aside from generic stuff like messing with knockback strength/angles, damage, etc. to differentiate moves.

Funky has some increased relevance with the DKTF Switch port, but he's never headlined a game (like Dixie) and his non-playable appearances are less prominent than K Rool's.

Funky Kong chance: 5%
The thing here is that I think Dixie is a better echo candidate, and the chances of getting a DK series clone are lower if K Rool is a newcomer, and K Rool is one of the more prominent newcomer candidates. So he has some serious competition.
Funky Kong want: 10%
I'd really rather see Dixie or K Rool.

Isabelle
I guess she's also meant as an echo - of Villager. I don't really want a second variant of Villager, but I guess I can't really say she wouldn't work for that. And I guess she has some popularity. She might have some unique potential as well, I guess. Not sure what the ideas are there.

Isabelle chance: 15%
Isabelle want: 5%

I'd be totally on board with her being an alt like Alph or the Koopalings. I don't like Villager that much as far as gameplay and I have other characters I'd rather see.

Octolings
The ink mechanic gives some obvious ways to differentiate them from the Inklings - different ink usage, different ink recharging, the effect of ink on other players, etc. much in the manner of Lucina. There's more material in Splatoon to come up with a unique move or two as well, but there'd be less motivation for that.

The problem is that Octolings sound a lot more like DLC material to me. Getting a newcomer and a clone of that newcomer has happened before with Marth and Roy, but it's not generally that exciting of an idea.

Octolings chance: 3%
Octolings want: 15%

Inklings look cool, and maybe a variant would also be fun, but both of these numbers would increase if we were rating for DLC (and we knew DLC was happening). But I don't see a whole lot of reason for them to put in Octolings right now. They have a ways to go before they exhaust better/more fan-pleasing echo ideas.

Shadow
I don't think we're likely to see any third-party echoes. I hope that Knuckles being an AT is more of a nod to old-school Sonic fans than making way for Shadow to be playable. Knuckles or Tails are both better ideas, more visually distinct and have more interesting ideas for how you might tweak them compared to Sonic. I can't say it won't happen, because the "rules" about third-parties are mostly made up by the fans and not real rules. But it would seem strange to me for Shadow to get in.
Shadow chance: 2%
Shadow want: 0%

Please no.

Nominations: Tetra x5
 
Joined
Aug 31, 2014
Messages
554
Funky Kong
Chance: 10%
Want: 40%

Isabelle
Chance: 15%
Want: 30%

Octolings
Chance: 20%
Want: Abstain

Shadow
Chance: 25%
Want: Abstain
 
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MasterWarlord

Smash Champion
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Aug 24, 2008
Messages
2,820
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Crocodilopolis/White King’s Paradise
All of these scores are specifically as echoes only.

Echo Funky Kong Chance - 30%: Funky Kong's relevance spike was too late for the design document, but the new style of clones in this game makes getting him as one a big possibility. Without echoes, Funky would be below Cranky on the totem pole of likelihood. The main thing that would stop him is Dixie could be one instead, but there's a lot of debate over whether Dixie could be similar enough or not to be a clone. Still, I think Dixie is going to appear in some form and I don't think DK is going to get 3 new characters. It basically hinges on whether K. Rool gets in or not. Just from abundance of DK newcomers in this game, I'm going to give him a lower score. There is a small chance we could get K. Rool and Funky with no Dixie but it's not big.

Echo Funky Kong Want - 80%: I gave this guy a very low score as a normal character, but as an echo I'm all for it. His level of importance equates well to echo, and his character model is such a good fit for DK.

Echo Shadow Chance - 6%: Getting a second character from a third party is pretty low odds, even as an echo. Still, Knuckles being an assist trophy without Shadow returning seems like a pretty big waste of an asset if Shadow is not being used as an echo. There was basically no chance of a second Sonic character outside of an echo. Still, the Sonic franchise is desperate and would beg for another character given the chance. The echo could possibly be Metal Sonic instead of Shadow, which also lowers his chances slightly.

Echo Shadow Want - 40%: He would be a pretty funny ironic character to make edge jokes about. Similar to Dark Pit, but actually funny outside of the context of being in Smash Bros.

Echo Octolings Chance -18%: Splatoon is generically relevant and popular, and this can promote the new expansion. It's still not something I can see people getting particularly excited about, though. I don't see what they really do that's different. I know the point of an echo is to not do anything different, but who is this pleasing other than just getting more Splatoon representation for the sake of it?

Ecto Octolings Want - 0%: I think Inklings are a good choice and all despite not particularly liking them but really not feeling this clone. Can't they come up with a named character of some kind?

Echo Isabelle Chance - 60%: This makes way too much sense from an advertising standpoint. This is Nintendo's choice of a secondary main character from Animal Crossing. Tom Nook is deconfirmed just to make things all the better for her. She has pitifully low moveset potential, but that doesn't matter if we're just going to make her an echo anyway. Animal Crossing is big and could do with more representation, and her assist trophy is absent.

Echo Isabelle Want - 0%: Don't like her, never liked her. It doesn't help the Animal Crossing games I played didn't have her in them. I actually liked Tom Nook and she killed him.

Nominate Fawful x5
 
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Funky Kong
ASMR Kong

Chance- 20%
His only hopes are if he gets added as a last minute clone character or becomes part of a New Funky DLC pack. Cranky, Dixie and K. Rool all rain on his parade as well.

Want- 65%
His smile.
His eyes.
His voice.
His laugh.
His warmth.
His existence.
Him.


KOS-MO KRAMER- 4.17%
Steve X 4
Thwomp X 1
Isabelle
Chance-50%
She has insane popularity, and is the mascot of Animal Crossing. However, Sakurai didnt include BOTW Zelda since she isnt a fighter, which makes me skeptical of Isabelle. Thats not to say Isabelle wouldnt work as a fighter/echo of Villager.

Want-10%
Not into AC. And we already got a good pooch in the game :ultduckhunt:

Octolings
Chance- 10%
Splatoon is popular enough to get an echo. However- a potential roadblock would be coming up with 8 more ink colors that also work for Octolings so they dont use the same ink as the Inklings.

Want- 5%
I love Splatoon, but I am perfectly content with Inklings. They were on my top 5 during DLC era.

Shadow
Chance-40%
Our echo newcomer is Daisy- a character extremely popular among the more casual fans, and is from a huge series. Sounds a lot like Shadow to me. He would have to break the mold of so far only having one character per 3rd party series, which he could do considering Sonic's legacy.

Want- 50%
Pretty much only for Sonic Adventure nostalgia and so we could have his edge bless Smash Bros Ultimate. It would be hilarious to hear "I am All of Me" in the game :laugh:

Scorpion X 1
Thwomp X 4
 
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Do either of you have a source for Isabelle being a radical pacifist, to the point where it'd be out of character for her to participate in a fun-for-all festival like Smash out of principle?

I've already elaborated on the implications of the out-of-context screenshot linked above and the difference between Smash "fighting" and the confrontations Isabelle tries to avoid, and how her inclusions in games like her own franchise's Amiibo Festival and Mario Kart 8 prove she's not afraid of competition even in the latter case where it's a violent and heartbreaking race, but if there's something definitive I missed in my analysis on the previous page I'd like to add it to present a clearer picture of the arguments against her inclusion.
Late to the party, but Isabelle is a person who doesn't like fighting from a series who doesn't like fighting. However, considering Villager is already a playable character in the game, and she's been shown to get her hands dirty in other spinoffs like the Mario Kart 8 DLC / Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, I don't think the idea of her being a non-fighter holds her back at all, just like I said in my post you quoted:
I don't think "character accuracy" holds her back at all, especially considering the undisputed king of "They can't be playable! It wouldn't be accurate to their character!" is now a playable character.
The fact that she was an Assist Trophy in the first place and wasn't freaking out over seeing fighting happening right in front of her already means that her pacifist-nature isn't all too strong.
 
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Louie G.

Smash Hero
Joined
Aug 21, 2013
Messages
6,988
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Mars
Funky Kong
Chance: 5%
Gonna be honest, I don't really see Funky Kong as a plausible echo character at all. I suppose he could work pretty well over DK but I don't think he would be quite as obvious of a choice as some have claimed him to be. I personally feel that a new Donkey Kong character is a near guarantee, but it would absolutely be K. Rool or Dixie Kong over Funky, and yeah of course echo characters don't get in the way of full fledged newcomers but I would think that priority may go to some lesser represented series... even though I may contradict that in a little bit. Just bottom line, I don't really see it happening. As an echo there are more fitting choices, as an original character there's no way he gets prioritized over K. Rool or Dixie.

Want: 30%
Ignoring the meme, I'm a resounding meh. Funky's cool and all but give me the other two first please. Once DK is up to four characters then we can talk, but as of now I feel like Funky Kong would be a straight up poor choice to represent the series. I still love him though.

Isabelle
Chance: 40%
If you asked me a few months ago I would have said Isabelle is a lock, but things have changed a little bit. We're only getting a handful of newcomers, presumably, and I'm less sure that Isabelle is someone that Sakurai would deem necessary. I know she's lumped in with these characters under the implication that she could be an echo, which is possible... but ultimately I feel like some of Villager's abilities don't quite mesh with Isabelle the same way as some other echoes with their counterparts. I think it's possible though, and I also think it's possible that Isabelle is entirely original, or a semiclone. One thing I can't argue though is that Isabelle is a very important character to her series. She's extremely popular and is practically the face of Animal Crossing, so I don't think her significance would be an issue in any way shape or form. Animal Crossing can be represented pretty well with Villager alone, but having Isabelle on the roster would be a welcome addition. I haven't lost all hope but I'm iffy.

Want: 80%
I really like Isabelle. She's cute and she's built herself up to being an iconic Nintendo character. I definitely believe that there are certain elements of AC yet to be represented that she could pick up, honestly just really want her to have a Party Popper fsmash. I honestly hope she isn't regulated to an echo character because she deserves better than that.

Octoling
Chance: 25%
I'm kind of optimistic about an Octoling echo but not too optimistic. I'll talk about the negatives first since they're a little easier. Octo Expansion just came out, so playable Octolings were not really a blip on the radar when Sakurai was creating the roster. And yeah, echo characters are presumably last minute additions, but even still we're talking about something that literally came out a week ago. Octolings have of course existed since the first game and have gained a massive fanbase, but I see any possibility of a playable Octoling in Smash coming from their recent playable role in Splatoon. Also worth mentioning that Splatoon is a brand new series to Smash, and some older series might get priority for echo characters, although this one is pretty easily debunked by Marth and Roy in Melee. Octoling's chances mostly rely on when Sakurai was adding final touches to the roster, whether he knew about the upcoming Splatoon DLC at that point in time and if he felt that it was the right time for Splatoon to get another character already. On the bright side for Octolings I consider them the perfect choice for an echo character, functionally exactly the same as Inklings with aesthetic differences and a few Octo weapons here and there that carry slightly different properties. It's really exactly the kind of situation that lends itself to the role so I can only hope Sakurai may have considered that. If not, I think DLC is a really valid possibility down the line.

Want: 100%
They're my most wanted echo character. Like I said before they are the perfect pick for an echo and it would make me pretty happy to see Splatoon getting so much love right off the bat. Not too much to explain, if we could only get one more echo I would probably choose them.

Shadow
Chance: 15%
Maybe? Obviously Shadow's chances lie almost entirely on whether he would be chosen as an echo character. As an original character I'm still of a firm belief that third party franchises only get one character, although if any series could break that rule I wouldn't be surprised if it were Sonic (although I would prefer it's Mega Man). I do think people are weighing Shadow's absence as an AT a little too heavily, there's always the more obvious explanation that Knuckles just replaced Shadow because they got bored of the same AT two games in a row. Still I'm sure Shadow did well in the ballot, and this would be the best way to include him. Not all that confident in third party franchises getting more than one character in any capacity, though.

Want: 20%
I don't really like Shadow. He's got some cool abilities (and if he's an echo he wouldn't get to use them) but he's definitely not up there with my favorite Sonic characters. I've always preferred Metal Sonic as the rival character.

Bandana Dee: 41.5%
Elma: 58.75%

Chorus Kids x5
 

Wonks

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Aug 12, 2012
Messages
356
Funky Kong = 1% chance. There are just more iconic/recognizable DK characters.

Isabelle = 32% chance. Immensely popular. I think we're all picturing her as a Villager clone, but are his moves really her M.O., too?

Octolings = 4% chance. I think their late release hurts them. They could be an Echo DLC, but would it be worth it for the dev team?

Shadow = 80% chance. Sonic fans are ravenous and making Shadow an Echo of Sonic would be fitting, easy, and might bring a few more Sonic fans into the game.
 

TCT~Phantom

Smash Champion
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Dec 10, 2013
Messages
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TCT~Phantom
Hey look I actually got calcs out for today!?!?!

Isabelle
53.27% Chance (Previously 46.09%)
48.27% Want (Previously 41.76%)


A strong improvement. Honestly she had such a strong improvement in want and chance.

Shadow
35.74% Chance
25.76% Want


Ow the edge. While seen as decently likely, he is far from popular.

Octolings
23.88% Chance
47.04% want


Imo I think the Octo Expansion helped them a lot. If we did this a month or two in the past or future it would be a bit lower.

Funky Kong
19.34% Chance (Previously 13.25%)
40.01% Want (Previously 46.37%)


An actual downturn in want? Surprising. I thought it would be relatively stable.


Today we got waddle dee and elma. Tomorrow we got Dixie Kong and Isaac. I will tag those who won noms in the morning.
 
Joined
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Messages
554
Bandana Dee
Chance: 50%
Want: 80%

Easily the most interesting character of the Kirby series, who is right after Xenoblade and DK in getting a new Rep. Spear fighting seems to be his style, but while he is easily the most likely rep of his own series, he's not extremely likely like some other newcomers of existing series such as DK or Xenoblade. If the roster is a pretty decent size (more than 6 unique newcomers), and there's only 1 third party (Smon), he might get in. Right now, he's possibly behind (in the first party category from an existing series) DK, Xenoblade, and possibly Pokemon in priority.

Elma
Chance: 75%
Want: 80%

I think it's her time.
From Sakurai using a Mech to pose a playable character within the span of Smash ultimate's development, and the unlikeliness that Rex/Pyra are in the base roster due to their designs being too late and Pyra's VA denying being contacted about smash repeatedly, on top of the fact that Xenoblade X came out at just the right time and she's easily the front runner of that game, which was just as successful as the first Xenoblade, added to her unique personality and moveset, as well as her own popularity. If I had to bet on 4 newcomers, I would bet on Chorus Men, Elma, a DK newcomer, and Simon at this point.

Nominate Chorus Kids x5
 
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Quetzal77

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Bandana Dee
Chance: 20% / Want: 25%
I don't see him making the cut. I admit he isn't a total lost cause but the Kirby roster to me seems fine for now and Sakurai seems to agree. He would have a fun moveset I admit.

Elma
Chance: 85% / Want: 100%
Regardless of Rex and Pyra I think Elma has a pretty good shot. It wouldn't be out there for Xenoblade to get two newcomers and if XC2 really is too new then she's the obvious pick. I feel a bit more confident about her chances now.

Nominations: Neku x 5
 

Nerd Saga Nate

Part-Time Youtuber, Full Time Nerd
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Bandana Dee
Chance: 35% -
I really don't think Sakurai's clammoring for a Kirby newcomer, but with his recent history, Dee is by far the most likely. He's popular in Japan and the West, he's always relevant as HAL loves to pump out Kirby games, and the franchise is beloved enough to warrant four reps. It really depends on how much Sakurai thinks the series needs more representation.
Want: 80% - I like the little guy; and the foursome of Kirby, Meta Knight, Dedede, and Bandana Dee that's so prevelant these days is only missing him.

Elma
Chance: 70% -
The Project Plan would be finishing up right at the time Elma would be relevant, and we know Sakurai bought a toy with a gun for some purpose related to Smash. I personally believe it's to help design how Elma's Skell would work as a Final Smash.
Want: 50% - I like Xenoblade enough that I wouldn't complain about a second character, but I'd prefer Rex & Pyra to be honest. Though there's always the chance I'll change my tune when I see how Elma plays.

Nominations
Chun-Li Assist Trophy x5
 

Nebelung

Smash Cadet
Joined
Mar 15, 2018
Messages
73
Bandana Dee!
Chance: 25%
... oof. This is really tough for me. On the one hand, a playable character in Kirby who is becoming more frequent and more popular. Even has an amiibo! But on the other hand, Kirby has a really good trio of iconic reps to the point some would consider it complete, including possibly Sakurai.

He is also popular though and many love his cuteness, and he has an easy to put together moveset. It's just so hard to say for me. I'm going to go a bit lower due to others having more likelihood in my eyes. I could see him as dlc though, perhaps...?

Want: 40%
He's so cute! I like other Kirby characters a bit more than him but they're not really likely, and I think he'd be a good new rep for the series.



Elma!
Chance: 20%
Well, Xenoblade is a popular series and since Sakurai seems to like it... maybe? I don't know, I don't see either her or Rex getting in. I think too many use a Fire Emblem perspective here, but maybe my neutral look at Xenoblade is influencing me. I just don't see Xenoblade getting reps, unless it's from DLC.

Want: 20%
I think she's the better of the two talked about Xenoblade reps... but I haven't played her game. She seems cool though, I'd be okay with her inclusion.


Noms: Chorus Kids x5
 

Lampy

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Bandana Dee want: 90%
My second most wanted character. I love the Kirby series, and Bandana Dee is my favorite character from it.
He could also make for a great Smash fighter. Give him his spear, parasol, and elemental abilities (that's probably not happenning in Ultimate tho) and you're good to go.
However, until Decidueye is confirmed, my wanted newcomers are gonna get a relatively low want score (K. Rool got an 80% already).

Elma want: 50%
I think she has a cool design, but I have no attachment to her. I actually sold my copy of XCX because I couldn't find the time to play it.

Tails x5
 
Joined
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Messages
4,259
Location
Australia
Bandana Dee
Chance 60%
A bit lower than last time. We know that newcomer space is limited so it's naturally a lower a score. But he's still one of the front runners. Although the 2015 beginnings do leave me a little concerned
Want 100%
YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES
I love the little guy, he's so cute and Kirby needs a friend

Elma
Chance
38%
She certainly has timing on her side. It's hard to say how far a long Xenoblade 2 was at the time, or if X did well enough to warrant it. And of coarse limited space
Want
30%
I really want Rex and Pyra

Prediction
Dixie 43%
Isaac 19%

Nominate Parabo and Satebo x1
All stages returning x4
 

Slyshock

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Late to the party, but Isabelle is a person who doesn't like fighting from a series who doesn't like fighting. However, considering Villager is already a playable character in the game, and she's been shown to get her hands dirty in other spinoffs like the Mario Kart 8 DLC / Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, I don't think the idea of her being a non-fighter holds her back at all, just like I said in my post you quoted.

The fact that she was an Assist Trophy in the first place and wasn't freaking out over seeing fighting happening right in front of her already means that her pacifist-nature isn't all too strong.
I agree with you that her series doesn't like fighting, and that as a result it'd be unusual to see any character from it engage in combat. The Animal Crossing universe is inherently nonphysical, we haven't seen so much as contact sports outside of a few pieces of clothing and dialogue which make reference to their existence. That's not because football is immoral, it's just not the sort of thing the games focus on.

What I disagree with is the notion that it'd be out of character for Isabelle to partake in such festivities, so long as there was good will behind the brawling. She'd experience culture shock, certainly, but Isabelle's natural inclination to get along with others would ultimately lead her into the ring if that was how the villagers of this strange new world got along with one another.

For a good example of someone already in Smash who exemplifies Isabelle's worldview, we have Peach. She has no problem overseeing friendly fights, and she engages in quite a bit of roughhousing herself. When things are starting to get heated between parties who should be allies, however, she steps in and cools tensions. Isabelle would act identically in these situations; The only thing holding her back is her universe of origin, which is why it takes entering other universes for this aspect of her character to shine through.

Abstaining from Elma, not because there isn't a lot about her to discuss but because I'm not invested enough in Xenoblade representation to properly investigate her odds.

(Bandan(n)a) (Waddle) Dee

Chance: 66%
I don't believe the fabled Sakurai Super Star bias is enough to resist Dee's resume at this point, he's been the 4th member of the Kirby Crew for several years now. Not that I believe Sakurai Super Star bias was ever an issue in the first place, but at this point you'd need something akin to it to take the wind out of Dee's sails.

Dee is perhaps the greatest success story of our time, starting as a sprite edit in a minigame whose gimmick was being utterly worthless and climbing his way to being one of the most recurring and beloved icons of Nintendo's cutest franchise. To sorta tie this back to Isabelle, he's got many of her strengths; He is and has been relevant, he's popular worldwide (especially in Japan), and he's not going anywhere anytime soon.

Sharing so much of his design with Waddle Dees as a whole, Dee's able to echo the importance and roles of his entire species; Waddle Dees have filled all sorts of roles throughout Kirby history and collectively see similar amounts of publicity to Kirby himself, so in some ways it could be said that Dee has a greater claim to fame than even the likes of King Dedede and Meta Knight.

Want: 60%
One of Dee's strengths is also his most notable weakness; The ultimate minion is ultimately a minion. Cute as he is, it's hard to enthusiastically back a character without so much as a consistent name. He certainly has moveset potential, but moreso the stock kind that you'd often see in earlier Smash games. You don't need a gimmick to be a good character, but it helps you look more interesting.

Regardless of how comparatively vanilla he may be, however, he's more than earned a seat at the table. When you're as closely intertwined with a franchise as Dee is, representation without them just feels lonely.

Nominations: Nikki x5
 
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Strider_Bond00J

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Bandanna Waddle Dee:

Chance: 65%
Bandanna Dee is one of the most notable breakout characters Kirby has to offer, and he deefinitely would be an easy character to make as a playable character. Helping him out is his unique choice of weapon being his signature Spear, but he could also draw influence from Parasol if needs be, but Bandanna Dee has plenty enough to be a worthwhile fighter.

I think what'll be deeciding factors in his inclusion are his ballot popularity, and whether Sakurai feels like the Kirby roster is fine enough as it is, or could be expanded.

Want: 80%
Deefinitely my pick for a Kirby newcomer. Kirby's fourth musketeer is a character I'd happily accept into Ultimate's roster.

Elma:
Chance: 50%
With the recent reveal that Smash Ultimate began development most likely around 2015 when Xenoblade Chronicles X was launched on the Wii U, it's pretty likely that Elma might actually make the cut over Rex and Pyra, as XCX launched around then.

Elma herself has plenty of popularity amongst the Smash Bros community, given that she's got a pretty versatile weapon kit in double guns and double swords, and of course the Skell mech as a Final Smash.

Want: 70%
Eh, I'm ready to accept Rex and Pyra might not make the cut for this game, so I won't be too disappointed if Elma decides to join the fray as a playable fighter. Might help me get back to Xenoblade X if they decide to port it over to the Nintendo Switch and fix some of the game's glaring issues, or a Xenoblade X2.
 
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Messages
5,790
Bandanna Dee
Chance: 80%
Definitely one of the frontrunners, to the point where I’d be surprised if he doesn’t make it in. He faces no competition within his franchise, he is and has been Player 4 for a long while now, and is heavily popular in both East and West.
Want: 100%
How can you not love Bandanna Dee?

Elma
Chance: 25%
Well, she has timing on her side, I’ll give her that. However, it never felt like Xenoblade X was as big a deal as Xenoblade 2 (certainly not as big as Xenoblade 1). Yeah, I know it sold better than the original, but it never seemed to receive the critical acclaim or strong fanbase of the others, it just slipped under the radar. On the same vein, Elma wasn’t really a breakout character, you really only see people’s talking about her in the realm of Smash speculation, kind of like Decidueye.

Want: 15%
I’m always wary of bandwagons. Smash needs to ensure the characters it features will stand the test of time, and Elma really gives me ‘pick-of-the-week’ vibes. I also got something against a game being repped by the main character, and while some have defended Elma as the true main character of X, I just don’t see it.

Nominations: Ayumi TachibanaX5 (weird that I’m nominating her after talking about how I don’t like series to be represented by anyone other than the main character, huh?)
 

BrytonJ

Smash Journeyman
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Bandanna Dee

80% Chance

Considering that it feels like kirby gets a lot of games and how many characters there seems to be I've always thought it was weird how few we have in smash. I think this time it's finally gonna happen. I can't think of any other kirby character that's more likely, that's for sure.

60% Want

I'm happy with pretty much whoever when it comes to smash but I actually haven't played that much kirby so I don't have much attachment. On the other hand he's got a spear and it's always fun to play as an upgraded mook.

Elma

60% Chance

I definitely think they want to expand xenoblade within smash seeing as the franchise has started chugging along. I think an X character is more likely than a 2 character just because of the timing of when the game seems to have gone into development.

30% Want

Again, I'm happy with basically anyone. I'm also into seeing a more recent franchise become more ingrained in Nintendo history thru smash. However, I've never played Xenoblade and it really doesn't look like my thing. Even from a design perspective I just can't really dig Elma.
 
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Bandana Dee
Chance: 45%
Want: 25%
It's up to Sakurai if he considers Kirby warrants a fourth rep, and he wouldn't be a complicated character to program too.
Elma
Chance: 65%
Want: 65%
You might think her chances are passed as Xenoblade X is not among the hottest things nowadays. But it's hardly the case.
It is likely this game will get a port on Switch as Monolith Soft's president wishes it, and it is also likely she has been highly considered during the DLC era of Smash 4 before getting dismissed in favor of :4corrin:/:4corrinf:.
It's also a possibility we might get a direct sequel to XCX as this game ended on a cliffhanger, thus she might become a regular character, but in the "X" side of the series.

[...]
The more Xenoblade gets content in Smash the better.
Tho I believe she won't have the same "wow" effect as most of Smash 4's newcomers had. She could have enough potential to bring an interesting moveset, but a rather classic one, not in the likes of :rosalina:, :4robinm: and :4shulk:.
And I've absolutely no complaints she's joining in in addition to Rex and Pyra.
Noms:
Female announcer x5
 
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Bandana Waddle Dee

Chance - 65%

Kirby has gotten a whole ton of love within the past decade, unlike anything the series has seen since the mid-90s, and Bandana Waddle Dee has been the breakout star of all of it, becoming the de facto 4th main character of the series, and sometimes getting bigger roles than King Dedede and Meta Knight, in games like Rainbow Curse or Battle Royale.

Considering a lot more love has been included in Smash Ultimate towards modern Kirby games (Masked Dedede final Smash, Galacta Knight alternate costume, Kirby getting a lot of animations from his newer games like his running and victory animations), despite Sakurai's history of preferring his own Kirby games, I can see certainly seeing it happening. He'd promote the newer games, while also finishing off the core Kirby cast.

It's also probably worth noting that Bandana Waddle Dee also likely did super well in the Smash Ballot, especially in Japan, due to the amount of love they have for the Kirby series over there. Also, the project plan timing of late 2015 means it would be around the release of Kirby and the Rainbow Curse, where Bandana Waddle Dee had a starring role, when King Dedede and Meta Knight didn't even appear, and Kirby Planet Robobot, where Bandana Waddle Dee also had a decently-sized role, being in the background of every stage. He has a lot going for him.

Want - 10%

He's probably my least wanted Kirby character. I love the Kirby series, but Bandana Waddle Dee just feels really bland to other potential picks like Dark Matter, Gooey, Adeleine, and Marx, even if none of those are anywhere near as likely as BWD is.

He still gets some points though, just because he's a main Kirby character at this point, and I'd understand completely if he got in, even if I'm not a fan of the guy.

Elma

Chance - 50%

Considering the project plan was finalized right around the time Xenoblade Chronicles X released (late 2015), I can very easily see her getting in. It really depends on how much Sakurai wants to provide "fanservice" this time around.

Not really much else to say here.

Want - 30%

I've never touched Xenoblade Chronicles X, and nor do I really plan to, but the idea of a dual-wielding gun character sound neat.
I'd honestly rather still have Rex / Pyra as my Xenoblade character of choice, considering I've actually played XC2, but I don't expect them as base game characters, so I'd understand if she was chosen.
 
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Zema

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I fight for my friends.
Bandana Dee
Chance: 20%
Sakurai also made the Kirby franchise so it's unreasonable for me to completely discredit Bandana Dee... however I feel like Bandana Dee is not fighter-worthy in Sakurai's eyes, as he had every opportunity to add him in Smash 4. Overall, just because a franchise has had few characters in it doesn't mean that it deserves a slot dedicated to a new character. The Kirby franchise just doesn't have enough interesting characters imo.

Want: 10%
To be honest, he looks really boring, design-wise, and looks like he wouldn't be interesting gameplay-wise either. As I stated above, I think the Kirby franchise has added pretty much all the relevant characters it needed to already with Meta Knight and King Dedede. Updated to 10%. I think Bandana Dee, being a minor character, would at least help pave the way for more interesting minor characters should he actually get in.

Edit: 0%->10%

Elma
Abstain
 
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Indefinite Minimum

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Jan 22, 2015
Messages
468
Banana Dee
Chance: 50%
Ridley showed that they are putting in ballot characters.

Want: 50%
He's okay but if you want a real kirby character you should check out the Dark Matter thread. ;)

Elma
Chance: 5%
Rex and Pyra are newer and have a more unique gimmick.

Want: 0%
I didn't like Xenoblade X.

Nominations:
Dragonite x5
 

Erimir

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Elma
Basically, other Xenoblade option, from X instead of 2. I don't think we're super likely to get another Xenoblade character, but it's plausible. Timing is on her side, but it could very easily be a case where Xenoblade doesn't get another rep if Sakurai doesn't like his choices (and while the series is good and has done well enough that a second rep wouldn't be surprising, it also isn't so wildly popular that it demands a second rep - and you see how long it took Metroid to get a 3rd/non-Samus rep).

Elma chance: 20%
Elma want: 50%
I'm indifferent, as I haven't played XCX. That's better than for Rex and Pyra though.

Bandana Dee
I guess he has some popularity, but I would point out that some of the people here are exaggerating it. He might be reasonably popular in Japan, for example, but they will also be considering popularity in the US and Europe, etc. And he didn't get an amiibo - there's a generic Waddle Dee amiibo, not a "Bandana" Dee amiibo. He doesn't look that interesting to me, and Corrin's moveset incorporates a lot of the features a "spear user" would have while technically not being one. Except Bandana Dee's spear would be so short that he'd be more similar to Meta Knight than Corrin, most likely. (The short-and-stubby aspect of Kirby characters makes him not as interesting in that regard.)

I'm also not sure that Sakurai doesn't view the Kirby lineup as "complete" (which is how I feel about it mostly). Bandana Dee is also not one of his characters. I'd also say that there are several other Kirby characters they might consider to be more interesting than Bandana Dee, and we're probably not getting multiple Kirby reps, IMO.

Bandana Dee chance: 16%
Being kawaii is probably not good enough reason to think that a character is going to be in. I just can't see this as being a hype announcement for Nintendo to make, even with his dedicated fan base. I understand that, yes, perhaps in Japan they feel the same about Ridley. But 16% isn't that bad, really... (about the chances of rolling a 1 on a D6)
Bandana Dee want: 5%
I'm not a fan.
 
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Bandana Waddle Dee
Chance 95%
Yep, it's that high. That's how confident I am in his inclusion. I legit think he's the likeliest First Party character at this point. To explain myself this post will consist of 3 parts.


1/3 What does Dee already have going for him
Let's recap...
-Uses a weapon not seen before on the roster
-Due to Smash's controlls being inspired by the Kirby series, could make his moveset easier to make
-Relevant to the Kirby franchise at this moment, has official merch and shows up in many official artworks, even has his own song. (would likely get in as DLC if he somehow isn't in the base game)
-Is the only one out of the main four to not yet be playable.
-During Smash 4 DLC was one of the most requested newcomers in Japan, according to PushDustIn. Since the ballot will likely have a big impact on who the newcomers for Smash Ultimate will be this is very important to Bandana Dee

''So what? He has many things going against him too.''

Well not really when you actually look into it.

2/3 Debunking the arguments

''He's a generic member of his species, you can compare him to a Goomba with a hat''

This is Bandana Dee's ''Too big.'' Difference is that this argument is putting words in Sakurai mouth. Try to find one instance where a character didn't make it because of this. Personally I really doubt he cares with us having Pokemon, :ultyoshi: and :ultrob: on the roster. Unlike Bandana Dee, those characters don't even differentiate themselves from all the other individuals in their species. Everything they do can also be done by all the others. The same can't be saide for Bandana. You don't see your everyday Waddle Dee having wicked spear moves and competing in Megaton Punch.

About the ''Hat Goomba'' thing. Bandana Dee is already an official character with a name, so that argument goes into the trash. You can't even really compare him to a official hat Goomba, Goombario. But the Dee is way out of his league considering Goombario is a one-off character from a spin-off series, with no relevance or unironic support. He also can't really do anything a regular Goomba wouldn't be able to. Most importantly is that Bandana Dee actually has arms.:p

''Kirby doesn't need a 4th rep''

These aren't the Brawl days anymore. The Kirby series has grown significantly to the point where a 4th character feels more than justified. BTW Fire Emblem didn't really ''need'' a 6th rep yet Sakurai put Corrin in anyway. And that franchise hasn't sold near the amount of games the Kirby series has sold. Regardless it doesn't matter since Sakurai doesn't really look at the roster in terms of reps anyway.

''He's not as important as Dedede and Meta Knight. He's just multiplayer filler''
I'd argue importance to the series isn't really a big factor for a inclusion. Geno is unimportant to the Mario series, yet Sakurai himself wants him. :ultsheik: is pretty unimportant to the Zelda franchise. Neither are clones like :ultdoc::ultdaisy::ultdarkpit:and:ultpichu:. I'd also argue when the roster for Smash 4 was decided :ultrosalina:wasn't all that important to the whole Mario franchise.

Also if Bandana Dee really was just multiplayer filler, then why do we see him consistantly show up in most Kirby games? Granted, the fact that the roster was decided at the time when Bandana Dee's importance was still busy growing is the reason I'm not giving him a 99.99% but I feel the ballot could make that inrelevant.

''He'd be boring. There are better choices for a 4th Kirby rep.''

Assumpsions. If you're talking about in terms of moveset then you aren't thinking creatively. I doubt Bandana Dee's moveset would consist 100% of generic spear attacks. Sakurai would probably put an unique spin on his spear. Like having it be mechanical like Dedede's hammer. One second it's an spear, the other it turns into a parasol or a beam staff. I think Bandana Dee's playstyle would rely on spacing using the tip of his spear to knock opponents back, like Marth but with more range. Or who knows, maybe Sakurai won't do all that. :ultridley:shows that newcomers for this game won't need some sort of gimick to get people excited. And while I won't argue for the ''better choices'' thing since that's subjective, I think it's been universally agreed that Dee would be the likeliest option for a Kirby newcomer.

''Sakurai bias''

Bandana Dee debuted in Kirby Super Star. Despite his role being pretty minor in that game, it still means he was created by Sakurai. And with Dedede now having a new Final Smash in the form of Masked Dedede could be a sign at Sakurai being more open towards modern Kirby content, Some people point at him not having a trophy in Smash 4 but that doesn't really matter that much. Diddy Kong didn't have a trophy in Melee, neither did characters like Rosalina or Duck Hunt have one in Brawl. The only way I can see bias mattering is if Sakurai doesn't like Bandana Dee being a master spear wielder. I doubt that since Sakurai made him debut in a contest about cracking the planet using just muscles.

Now here comes the part to why I'm so confident in Bandana Dee being playable.

3/3 Hints and signs

There are two main things that make me think he's basically confirmed. One from Smash Ultimate. The other from a recent Kirby game.

So far we haven't spotted Bandana Dee in any form in this game. Not even as an Assist Trophy, which detractors think is a good role for him to have. Now there will be over 50 Assists in the game and we have 20+ more to see, so Bandana Dee could still possibly be among them. However I think if he was one he would already be revealed as one. Characters like Waluigi and Bomberman, who during the ballot days were just as if not more popular than him were casually deconfimed as characters in favour of being Assist Trophies. Along with less popular characters like Knuckles, Lyn, Midna, Starfy, Takamaru and Sukapon. I think that if Bandana Dee's ballot popularity was noticed it would've been a smarter move to straight up show him as an Assist in the Direct rather than having the fans wait only to dissapoint them later. More importantly. He also isn't anywhere in Dedede's new Final Smash, which is weird since he was literally the only guy who showed up to watch the fight between Kirby and the masked king.

Considering Ness and Lucas's partners show up during their Final Smashes along with Fiora in Shulk's Final Smash, it would make sense for him to atleast have a cameo, right? (shoutouts to @HypraSeaPea on Twitter for bringing this up)

Finally I'll show the thing that made give him such a high score.
It's his description when playing as him in Star Allies and pausing the game.
Doesn't this seem suspicious? You cannot tell me with a straight face this isn't HAL basically hinting at him being playable. The words ''He's got stellar attendance in the Kirby series'' and ''he sets himself apart from carefree parasol holders'' basically seems like HAL subtly showing disagreement towards the ''unimportant'' and ''generic species'' arguments. Also the ''deserves a prize'' thing deserves a mention. Why so vague? What kind of ''prize'' are we talking about here. Some applejuice? A medal? Or perhaps something bigger? I imagine Star Allies was in pretty early development during December 2015 so by the time this description was written HAL likely knew about all the Kirby related content in Smash Ultimate. I could all see this being foreshadowing.
You can say I'm looking to deep into this, but did anyone here recall that easter egg in Bayonetta 2 on Switch?
This ultimately hinted at Rodin showing up in Smash Ultimate. Sure, as an Assist Trophy but he didn't really have near as many things going for him as Bandana Dee. I think this description holds ground.

So yeah... this is why I think Bandana Dee will be playable.

TLDR:
-Likely popular during the Ballot, which likely will play a big role in Smash Ultimate.
-Has the potential to be a unique character.
-Faces no major competition from his franchise
-Doesn't really have anything major going against him, with arguments detracting him being weak and don't carry much weight.
-Lack of any appearance in Smash Ultimate and description in Star Allies point at him being playable.

Obviously my want score remains 100.

Elma
Chance: 90%
I don't have much to say other than the fact she has the best timing out of any potential newcomer.

Dixie Kong: 43.75%
Isaac: 28.16%

Leon Kennedy x5
 
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andimidna

Smash Master
Joined
Dec 22, 2013
Messages
3,330
Location
Gusty garden galaxy
Yesterday:
Isabelle:
Chance: 40%
Want: 75%
Funky Kong:
Chance: 6.5%
Want: 40%
Shadow:
Don’t clutter with unnecessary 3rd parties pls. Sonic brings all the star power
Chance: 13%
Want: 0%
Octolings:
Chance: 5%
Want: 80%

Today:
Bandana Dee:
Chance: 30%
He’s got a fine shot but not a lock by any means. Wouldn’t surprise me either way. I don’t expect every reveal to be as major as Ridley. I also don’t know if later ones will be as promotion based, like for Elma. We really can’t see a trend yet with 2 new unique characters and 1 echo. They each have their own benefits.
Want: 40%
He’s round and hits things with spears that’s alright sure

Elma:
Lack of newer content could help, but maybe what we’ve seen is older because newer content has yet to be refined? Idk. With less newcomers, I could easily see no new Xenoblade until DLC. It could go either way I guess?
Chance: 16%
Want: 70%
I like her design

x4 Hanafuda character
x1 Style Savvy character
 
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KyleWussler
abastaing from elma

Bandana dee
chance
still not deconfimed and while we are getting a smaller newcomer roster he still has not been shown as a AT or stage so I think he has a chance
50%

want
a newcomer I have wanted in Smah 4 so to have him here I am all for
100%

Prediction
Dixie 60%
isaac 6%

nominating Inceneroar x5
 

CaptainAmerica

Smash Champion
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...I guess it’s Dee day now

Bandanna Waddle Dee

Chance: 10%
Want: 10%

Dee is in a position similar to Toad - a generic character made unique by the addition of an accessory, and despite appearing frequently as a sidekick in the main series games, has not even shown as anything noteworthy (not even an assist) in Smash.

We can speculate all we like about ballot results, but nobody knows the actual results, besides that ballot was easy enough to vote-by-bot so we don’t know how skewed it is. We all live in our forum threads so it sounds like there’s loads of support, but we don’t really know. Personally, I haven’t heard Dee banded about by anyone outside of these boards...granted I don’t look for material either.

As for “we need a spear user,” I don’t really think of him as a spearman simply because he holds a spear. If I wanted to see a spear fighting style, I’d look for someone from Zelda, now that Link got a bunch of spears as possibilities, or they likely have some in Fire Emblem. A puffball waving around a pointy stick that is as long as he is wide would not be able to do more than poke with it and also wouldn’t have extended range - kinda like how Meta Knight’s swordsmanship is not really at the level of the rest of the swordsmen in Smash. Honestly, I see Dee more as a pokey Meta Knight than anything else.

On his side, the Kirby series is getting a new game, and I’m sure the series as a whole is much more popular in Japan than in the west. But Sakurai did seriously cut down on Kirby content after people claimed Brawl favored the series too much (it wasn’t bad), and now the complaints about Sakurai favoring his own stuff skyrocketed for SSB4 (that was excessive). He may be hesitant to feed that debate more.

Personally, I don’t really see anything in Dee. While most people think we have enough sword fighters, I say bring on the sword fighters to balance out all of the small round puffball type characters with stubby arms and legs (not that that’s all bad, since I support Squirtle and he fits that description too). I’ve never been that into the Kirby series, so there’s not much about him that says ‘unique’ to me.

I’m not going to riot if he gets in, and I’ll be happy for his supporters since they’ve been around a while, I just think there are some more deserving characters who are more important to their respective series and whose series deserve more representation.

Prediction for Pauline: 9.8%
Prediction for Toad: 27.4%

Nominations: :4mewtwo:x5
Elma

Chance: 30%
Want: 0%

I really feel like Xenoblade just kind of sprang up out of nowhere right before Sm4sh's release. I'd never heard of Shulk before the Gematsu leak, and I'm not much a fan of the JRPG designs (and aesthetics).

Meh.

Prediction for Story Mode: 39.1%
Nom: something from Skyrim x5
No changes here. Both are incredibly meh for me.

Nom: Tails x5
 

AlphaSSB

Bring Back Star Fox
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Bandanna Dee

Chance: 20% - He has relevance and popularity behind him. That, combined with however well he may have done in the ballot, makes him out to have decent chances overall. It's just a matter of Sakurai.

Want: 10% - I don't not want Bandanna Dee, as I think he'd make a great addition to the roster. I just won't be hurt if he doesn't make it, or is deconfirmed as an Assist Trophy.


Elma

Chance: 45% - With one of the highest scores I'll give to a newcomer, I think Elma has some of the best chances out of any potential newcomers. I think the timing for Smash Ultimate's development, paired with that model figure Sakurai bought, paired with the timing of Xenoblade Chronicles X, and a few other things all point towards Elma. With how well received Shulk was, it wouldn't surprise me if Sakurai went to Monolith Soft looking for a newcomer, and what better choice than the main protagonist for their new game about to release? The only thing standing in her way is if Xenoblade Chronicles 2, and thus Rex and Pyra, were far enough in development for Monolith Soft to push for them instead. Especially if Xenoblade Chronicles 2 planned release date was close to that of Smash Ultimate's planned release.

Want: 15% - I've never played Xenoblade Chronicles X, so I don't really know a whole lot about Elma. That said I've seen clips of what all she can do. and based off what I've seen alone, I think she'd make for a very interesting addition to Smash. Delzethin Delzethin made a great Character Concept video about her that shows off a lot of her potential. Highly suggest people unfamiliar with her check it out.


Nominations: Slippy Toad x5
 
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Bandana Dee
Chance:75%
Has been establiahed as the 4th main Kirby character, and seemd very popularduring rhe ballot.
Want: 30%
What I like about Dee is that he stands as living proof that giving characters important rolea in thier games helps a ton in increasing thier popularity.
Elma
Chance: 2%
Chornicles X wasn't noteworthy for much. Elma didn't seem highly requested until right before Smash Ultimate was revealed. Seems like ahe would be an Assist Trophy at least.
Want: 0%
 
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