Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Deleted member]

-NOT A SERIOUS VOTE-

Lycanrox:
-Chance: 0%
-Want: 0%

What the hell is a "Lycanrox"?

 

[Opossum]

-NOT A SERIOUS VOTE-

Lycanrox:
-Chance: 0%
-Want: 0%

What the hell is a "Lycanrox"?

If my limited Kingdom Hearts knowledge is correct, Lycanrox is the Nobody of someone named Coralyn.

 

[Kotor]

If my limited Kingdom Hearts knowledge is correct, Lycanrox is the Nobody of someone named Coralyn.

Xehanort got to Carolyn?! From the KH mobile game? That Carolyn?! Man, that's the third woman Xehanort's blessed with his darkness. For a old man that's determined to recreate a war from fairy tales just to see what happens next, he's very progressive on picking his members.

 

[Runic_SSB]

Decidueye:

Chance: 25%

Want: 25%

Lycanroc:

Chance: 25%

Want: 40%

Mimikyu:

Chance: 75%

Want: 90%

Explanation for all 3:
I'm pretty sure it's gonna be Mimikyu. There's a decent chance for Decidueye or Lycanroc, and a small chance for others (still a glimmer of hope for my boy Buzzwole), but I'm still sold on Mimikyu.

Exitebiker prediction: 15%

Mach Rider prediction: 25%

Prince Sable prediction: 10%

Nominations:
Raiden x5

 

[Opossum]

Xehanort got to Carolyn?! From the KH mobile game? That Carolyn?! Man, that's the third woman Xehanort's blessed with his darkness. For a villain that's determined to recreate a war from fairy tales just to see what happens next, he's very progressive on picking his members.

On that note I have no idea why I went with Coralyn as the anagram when Carolyn was right there the whole time.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Nothing is True, Everything is Permitted

Chance: 30%
Want: 75%

Discount Pika

Chance: 30%
Want: 10%

Not Were, Just Wolf

Chance: 10%
Want: 0%

Pretty well the same thing can be said for all of these guys - there's not much space left, so they are in direct competition. Them vs. Tapu Whoever, Incineroar, Buzzswole, and over a hundred of their closest friends.

If Ultimate is as fanservicey as it seems to be, Pokemon Gen 7 is timed well, and Mimi and Deci were both released around that time (well, Deci was leaked and not confirmed until October). Both have recieved a lot of support, but Mimikyu's got everyone beat in terms of in-your-faceishness from the Pokemon Company.

Lycanroc, on the other hand, really didn't start to pick up until he got popular in the anime, which was quite a bit later. People knew about Rockruff, sure, but Lycanroc started to get big around the release of USUM, which is now past the time we'd be considering as development start.

In terms of easily making a unique moveset, I think Deci wins that one. Again, it'd be tough to do much outside of Earthbending with Lycanroc, and that could make things way more complicated than they're worth, and Mimikyu's shape does make him tough to work around. Deci was made into a Pokken fighter because it was easiest, and people loved it.

I prefer Deci of the three of them. We have a dog already and I don't need a doggier dog just because reasons - the Midnight form could work best but it's even more of an eye-rolling edgefest than Shadow the Edgehog at that point. Mimikyu would be a great Pokeball summon - see the idea I had from last round...

Now, you know what would be awesome out of a Pokéball summon? Using the disguises. I thought Mimikyu looked awesome at first, and then I saw this fanart making a bunch of different cloak variations based on other Pokémon. Once the game came out and it was just Pika...I was a bit disappointed. I feel like Mimi should definitely have loads of variations if it's just trying to feel loved; after all, not everyone likes Pikachu (I'm finally warming up to him after years of being a kid and hating the one that's rubbed in your face)

So here's my this-will-take-insane-dev-time-but-be-totally-worth-it idea: You throw out a Pokéball and it's Mimikyu. It immediately disguises itself as the character who threw the ball. Yes, that means a Mimikyu version for each playable character. Also, that stick needs to be something - the swordsmen are easy or anything with a tail, but maybe make it like a parasol for Peach, or a rapier for Zelda (even if she doesn't have it in her moveset) etc. Mimi will then move around a bit and hit characters with the stick for low damage and flinching, sort of like Eevee or Fletchling's been doing. BUT - if someone hits it enough to break the disguise's neck...it acts like one of the Cuccos - it'll home in on the person who did it, and then hit them with Let's Snuggle Forever, which deals incredible damage and knockback.

...maybe with over 65 playable characters, it's impossible to have a version for each, but the base idea works if Mimikyu's still hopping around looking like Pika.

Nom: Tails x5

 

[Hot_N_Tasty]

I think a Gen 7 newcomer is nigh inevitable, but we're gonna only see one. Almost all of the pokemon picked have prominence in marketing/the anime when they were selected.

- Pretty self-explanatory, Being the mascot and all.
- In addition to being an easy addition, was a popular side character and had a recurring role in the anime.
- Was the antagonist of the first movie.
-Appeared in some movie shorts, and was also an easy clone of Pikachu.
- One of Ash's pokemon, albeit not one of the main ones at the time of entry into Smash.
- ....You got me here
- See Squirtle, in addition to being consistently one of the most popular pokemon of all time as well.
- Had a movie he starred in and is still advertised to this day, like Charizard.
- Was a prime marketing tool and one of Ash's pokemon in the XY anime.

Now, I don't follow the anime and am only skimming bulbapedia; Ash does own the new for of Lycanroc, which got much promotion of USUM, and he also has a Rowlett, the base form of Decidueye, leading to a possible Greninja moment. Jessie also owns a Mimikyu, that looks to have a big beef with Pikachu, also with its own promotion that I distinctly remember.
I can easily see the latter two being offered to Sakurai, and possibly the starters as well. At that point, if it is like Greninja, Sakurai noted choosing Greninja, albeit I don't remember the reasons. I think it's something split like this:


Chances:

Decidueye - 30%
Lycanroc - 30%
Mimikyu - 30%

I just don't see what differentiates any one of them from the other two, knowing that gamefreak pushes its most marketable characters.

Want:

Decidueye - 5%
Lycanroc - 5%
Mimikyu - 20%

To be upfront, I expect, but don't exactly want another pokemon. Yeah, their moveset potential is there for each one, but I'm tired of Pokemon, just like I'm tired of Fire Emblem. Even more so because newcomer slots look limited, I want characters that will bring more to the table content-wise. I'd like to see new/underrepresented series get characters. Instead of yet another pokemon, can't we get a DKC character, a Wario Character, a Kirby character, or even better yet why not Advance Wars/Rhythm Heaven/Golden Sun/A retro darling/some other untrodden ground. Admittedly, Mimikyu gets a boost due to being one of my favorite pokemon however.

 

[Erimir]

I do think a Pokemon newcomer is reasonably likely, but I doubt we'd see multiples given how large the Pokemon cast is already and the generally lower number of expected newcomers.

Decidueye
I guess he has a pretty good moveset potential, and is already in Pokken. It would mean more grass-type Pokemon. But he's also a ghost-type, which hasn't been in the game before (that also applies to Mimikyu I suppose).

Decidueye chance: 33%
I'll take it from the Pokemon fans that Decidueye is one of the more likely/popular recent Pokemon. That plus the ease of adapting him to Smash makes him have a decent chance. But as we saw with Greninja not being on the radar for a lot of people last time, you can't discount "the field". An unreleased Pokemon, an older Pokemon, or one that just catches Sakurai/the team's fancy has a chance too. It's not necessarily down to these three.
Decidueye want: 51%
I'm indifferent. A ghost-type would be new, so cool, maybe?

Lycanroc
Again, I'd take it from the Pokemon fans that Lycanroc is promoted. It's a quadruped, although some of the pictures I saw (night form I guess) show it as bipedal, so it could alternate a bit I suppose. The multiple forms does mean they would have to think about how to represent it - some combination of features or pick one form and stick with it? A rock-type would also be a first for a playable character in Smash (but it would not have the first rock-type attack!)
Lycanroc chances: 26%
In the end, I think Decidueye has better moveset potential/ease of adaptation for Smash.
Lycanroc want: 52%
A rock-type would be new, so cool? Still mostly indifferent.

Mimikyu
We have Pikachu and Pichu, now we'd get fake Pikachu? True, it would have ghost-type moves instead of electric, but it still looks like Pikachu. Not a big fan of this idea.
Mimikyu chances: 9%
Still, it gets talked up, so maybe it does have a chance.
Mimikyu want: 0%
If I really wanted a ghost-type Pokemon, there are a lot of better choices, IMO. We have two Pika variants already.

There are other Pokemon than these three, and there's a non-negligible chance we get one of those... or no new Pokemon at all.

Nominations
Hmmm, I don't really have many characters that aren't already rated, confirmed, deconfirmed, or on the schedule that I'm super interested in! Even some of the concepts I was interested in mostly have an answer (it looks like no custom moves, and yes Battlefield form stages and stage hazard toggle)

But I guess I'll go with
Tetra x5

TCT~Phantom transformation characters concept should be removed from the nominations list since is confirmed. Alternatively, you could convert them into nominations for "a new transformation character"

 

[Sid-cada]

Decidueye

Chance - 40% - Personally, I can see a Greninja-esque situation happening. Compared to say, Lycanroc or it's fellow starters, it has a clear moveset potential and is designed with quite a bit of personality, which helps him stand out as a potential fighter. However, lacking in promotion compared to it's fellow pokemon is making me doubt his inclusion more compared to his competion. While he is quite likely in my opinon, I don't see him being quite as likely as I did in the past.

Want - 85% - Yeah, even if we don't have to fill the stater trio, I still think he's a cool choice. A ghost archer with grass powers is still cool.

Lycanroc

Chance - 17.5% - Back in the day, I was unaware of how much he was promoted in Pokemon. Now that I have a better picture, I do consider him competition, although I do have my doubts. Compared to others, his appearance is kinda bland in comparison to others. His design basically goes "I'm a dog with rock powers!" which doesn't feel very exiting.

Want - 45% - Thinking it over, while he could have an interesting move set, I do find him kinda bland and boring. While he could win me over, I don't find him interesting.

Mimikyu

Chance - 7.5% - While not quite as likely as several other pokemon, if anyone can slip in under the radar I think it's Mimikyu. A pokemon that was surprisingly popular and marketable, while having an interesting concept of something hiding under the cute sheet. Still, it's most likely going to be overlooked in favor of others.

Want - 60% - While there are definitely better Pokemon out there, I do think he could make for a cool fighter.


Nominations

Nihilego X5

 

[Wyoming]

I will update the nominations tonight. Kind of spaced out on them due to the past week being quite hectic for Smash.

 

[Curious Villager]

Decidueye
Chance - 15%
If they where to include anyone from the Rowlet line, It would be Rowlet itself imo. It's the one that carries all the marketing and popularity from that line and due to its comic relief status in the anime, I don't see it evolving, nor pulling an Ash's Charmander and evolving quickly to Decidueye just to market it real quickly, especially this late in Sun and Moon's lifespan. Plus as far as fully evolved starters go, I think Incenaroar is a bit more likely.

Want - 20%
While it was my first starter of choice during my playthrough of Moon, I grew to have a larger preference for Primarina during my playthrough of Ultra Moon. Plus I think I'd rather have Revali as far as bird archers go.

Lycanroc
Chance - 35%
I feel like this one is in a better position than the last one, It has a unique design and It's promoted very well too.

Want - 50%
It would be nice to see another quadruped in Smash, plus Lycanroc is a good doggo.

Mimikyu
Chance - 45%
I feel like this one has the best chance out of any Gen 7 Pokemon, the moment it was revealed it felt clear that the Pokemon company where dead set on marketing this pokemon. They gave it It's own theme song as well as giving it a large role in both the games and anime. Being a Totem Pokemon in the former and Jessie's ace in the latter, one that is actually able to give Ash's Pikachu the run for his money at that. With the inclusion of It's own signature Z-move as well as immense popularity it enjoy's. It definitely seems like a good front runner for Smash Ultimate's Pokemon newcomer.

Want - 75%
While ironically, I didn't quite like Mimikyu at first (Mainly due to the Totem battle in Sun and Moon) I grew to like this little guy quite a lot over time, I do particularly enjoy Jessie's Mimikyu from the anime, and I would hope it will carry over at least some of its characteristic's from that to Smash.


Nom: Tails x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Damn my typo lol, carry on.

 

[CometX-ing]

Decidueye & Mimikyu
Chances: 30% & 50%
Decidueye is a Pokemon who has less of a chance than I think people believe. First off, I think a new Pokemon rep is a given regardless of whether Sakurai said not to expect too many newcomers. That said, Decidueye really doesn't have much going for him at this point, at least, not enough to put him over other important Pokemon.

There is the possibility that Sakurai could have done a similar thing with Decidueye that he did with Greninja, but that was so far a one time thing that I won't just assume is going to be the case again, Plus that doesn't really give him any better a chance than the other starters.

There is the possibility he is popular in the west, but without a proper poll to go off that isn't hard evidence, and going by the Nintendo Dreams Poll he isn't popular very popular in Japan. He also doesn't have the anime to help him, as Rowlett hasn't even evolved yet, and likley won't due to Decidueye's lack of popularity. If any member of Rowletts line gets in it's gonna be Rowlett as he has popularity and anime relevance.

There used to be the argument that he could represent Grass types, but with Ivysaur back, that is no longer a bonus (though I didn't hold much stock in that anyway).

Mimikyu one the other hand has so much going for him. Anime relevance, popularity and early advertisement. Easily the most likely of any of the current most relevant Pokemon. The only Pokemon I could see beating him out is Marshadow due to appearing in a movie, which going by past experience is good way to get into Smash.

Gave my opinions on Lyconroc already.

Want: 10% & 30%
I may want Primarina, though I wouldn't be upset about Mimikyu. Decidueye I actively do not want.

Nominations:
Primarina x5

 

[Gerrothorax]

Chance
Lycanroc: 40%
Mimikyu: 40%
These two both get forties because of their popularity and prominence in the anime.
Decidueye: 9%
Decidueye gets a measly nine due to its lack of presence in the anime and for being overshadowed by its pre-evolution.
Want
Mimikyu: 20%
Decidueye: 20%
Lycanroc: 10%
While I don't dislike any of these character I don't think they're all that necessary. As of now Pokemon has eight unique fighters and one semi clone. I'd prefer more neglected series like DK get a new character than the one that has the most playable characters already.
Nomination: Slippy Toad X5

 

[TheFritzle]

Decidueye:
Chance: 20%
Want: 50%
Mimikyu:
Chance: 25%
Want: 50%
Lycanroc:
Chance: 40%
Want: 50%

I'm decently confident that we're getting a gen 7 newcomer this time, but only one. I don't think there is room for a second gen 7, since we still have gen 8 to consider. I think Lycanroc has the best chance of the three. Lycanroc is the Greninja of the Alolan anime. Lycanroc is being pushed hard by the Pokemon company, so I wouldn't be surprised to see it. It also presents a unique playstyle, with its multiple forms. We know Pokemon trainer is back, so transforming characters can exist. Mimikyu is also popular and being pushed in the anime. Mimikyu is just kind of in the middle. Decidueye is the least likely of the likely Pokemon. I used to think he was a lock, but now I'm thinking he is more unlikely than likely. There really isn't much going for him. He really isn't popular, isn't present in the anime, and isn't being pushed much. I'd put my money on Lycanroc being the newcomer, but I wouldn't be surprised with the other two either. I'm still hoping of Buzzwole to power through, but I doubt it. I don't have an preference on these three, as I never really liked any of them.

 

[Diddy Kong]

Where are the results of yesterday's recount?

 

[fogbadge]

if you dont mind id like to bunch some together

mimikyu and decidueye

chances: 50% the way i see it itll come down to one or the other of them and as the most popular gen 7 pokemon it think itll be one of them

want: 95% i love both of them and would be happy with either

lycanroc

chances: 30% i dont see it happening

want: 50% nothing against the pokemon but i think there are better ones

 

[StrangeMann]

Today's vote certainly has a lot of mixed opinions. I can see some people are extremely passionate about their pokemon of choice.
My opinion is that the chances of a pokemon newcomer have decreased following the revival of pichu and ivysaur/squirtle, but it is possible there could be one new pokemon remaining.

Among the 3 likely options, each has their upsides and downsides. I'm going to do some comparisons and research of all of the contenders.

Decidueye
Chance: 20%
Want: 75%

Pros:
-Appearance in Pokken Tournament
-A unique stealthy winged archer could make for a fun moveset
-Only fully evolved Grass starter in the running (in contrast to charizard and greninja), pre-evolution extremely popular. Has both a unique Z-move (final smash) and a signature move that it could use, in addition to a signature ability. Very high moveset potential as shown from Pokken tournement.

Cons:
-Return of the pokemon trainer brings back ivysaur, reducing the need for a new grass type pokemon significantly
-There are 5 archers using a bow and arrow currently in smash bros in their movesets (3 links, 2 pits, not even counting final smashes.), and Greninja fills the stealthy fight pokemon niche pretty well.
-Not prominent at all in the Pokemon anime (like virtually every other smash bros Pokemon aside from ivysaur), Ash's Rowlet is probably not going to evolve from previous trends either. Relatively poorly marketed compared to the other 2 entries.
-Notably less popular than it's 2 evolved starter counterparts
-Not very expressive compared to it's 2 other counterparts

Lycanroc
Chance: 35%
Want: 70%

Pros:
-5th most popular Gen 7 Pokemon with many different phases
-Prominent Pokemon partner of Ash in the Pokemon anime and common in merchandising
-Rock typing and phases could make for an interesting smash bros moveset (possibly different forms as echoes of each other?), which would never be seen in the smash bros roster before. Accelerock signature move could be easily portrayed in smash bros, in addition to it's own signature z-move for a final smash
-Expressive, can go berserk but also be calm and collected, depends on the situation.
Cons:
-Several doglike pokemon/characters already in game (lucario, duck hunt dog, wolf, fox all would be similar-ish)
-Wouldn't make sense to change forms in battle unlike other possible transformation pokemon, would most likely be it's Dusk form (which has a similar orange/brown and lighter brown coloring to the previously mentioned duck hunt dog and fox)
-No unique ability, it's abilities are shared with other pokemon

(*I'm not buying the argument some people have claimed that Lycanroc wouldn't be able to use items, Duck hunt dog can clearly pick up items with it's mouth as well, which actually is an argument towards how this fighter could work)

Mimikyu
Chance: 45%
Want: 80%

Pros:
-Extremely popular pokemon (2nd most popular after Rowlet)
-Prominent in marketing as the "cute" pokemon, member of Team Rocket responsible for many conflicts in the anime. Love from the moment it was born by the Pokemon Company... But do they really love it or do they love that it looks like Pikachu?
-Ghost/fairy typing and moves, and ability to take a blow (free super armor?) could be very interesting in Smash bros. Possible deception based moveset?Has let's snuggle z-move for final smash
Expressive through it's eye colors/shapes and sounds

Cons:
-Visually similar to Pikachu and the returning Pichu, easily confusing having both 3 links and 3 pokemon that look like pikachu.
-No signature move of it's own to use in battle, and couldn't pull from shadow ball because Mewtwo uses it.

(*Mimikyu actually does have arms, they are just under it's puppet body and would likely come out when needed)

Thus allow me to summarize my opinions:

I do think it's possible we don't receive a pokemon newcomer at all for this smash game because of ivysaur, squirtle, and pichu, but due to previous trends I'm still going to have the benefit of the doubt and going to predict there's a solid chance we get one for the sake of argument. If we don't get a new pokemon this time, it'll just be a skip and things will return to status quo for DLC or the next installment.

I actually think all 3 of these Pokemon are interesting, and all of them would make for interesting fighters in the smash bros roster upon doing further research.

I just don't see Decidueye as likely anymore, even though I think moveset wise, he's the easiest transfer for namco bandai into smash bros. They would still be an interesting fighter into the smash bros roster, but I don't think it's going to happen based on previous trends in both marketing and smash bros. The return of Ivysaur highly gimped one of it's heaviest arguments in terms of likeliness, which was compensation already for the poor marketing and relatively poor popularity of this Pokemon. It has fantastic moveset potential, but it's stifled by the Pokemon company itself not supporting it (aside from it's venture into pokken tournement.) Another problem with decidueye is that it's not nearly as expressive as the other two Pokemon in it's appearances. It generally keeps a calm and collected profile, more comparable to greninja and (somewhat) mewtwo than any other smash bros Pokemon (which tend to be very expressive as a whole), and we got a returning Mewtwo and Greninja in the last installment, so I feel the next pokemon newcomer will contrast this theme.

Lycanroc and Mimikyu are both heavily popular Pokemon in the Pokemon anime. While Lycanroc is notable for it's popularity, it's important to note that Lycanroc has 3 different forms that help contribute to it's popularity. In Smash bros, Lycanroc couldn't just change form, as the forms are decided the second it evolves, so it would likely be Lycanroc Dusk we would be seeing (the most popular Lycanroc form, seen in the anime). Lycanroc is very expressive, and has a pretty good array of potential moveset options, but there's already two brownish/orange canids in smash bros: Fox and Duck Hunt Dog. In order to distinguish itself, it would have to stray away from it's more physical prowess and lean more towards the rock elemental manipulation (think like earth bending). They would have to find a special way to give this pokemon a recovery move though.

Speaking of similarity, Mimikyu is very similar to Pikachu. With Pichu coming back, 3 Pokemon that look like Pikachu may be a bit much. However, despite it's appearance I doubt this Pokemon would play even remotely similar to Pikachu or Pichu. It's a pokemon with character built into it's design, and it's quite expressive with it's eyes and body movements. It has a very different typing and it's thematic points towards a deception-based playstyle. It's ability likely has a high amount of utility and could easily be incoorperated into a smash bros moveset. I could see a very deception-heavy playstyle being in effect for this character using moves like double-team, mimic, copycat, etc. It wouldn't be able to use shadow sneak or shadow ball though, which are 2 moves a lot of people associate with it.

I'm leaning on Mimikyu instead of Lycanroc because I personally (opinion) feel that Mimikyu's higher popularity and potential stealth-based moveset options give it the highest chance to be added to smash bros, followed closely by lycanroc (who is not as high in popularity and might be more tricky to find a moveset for), and followed later by Decidueye (who has fantastic moveset options but poor presence in the pokemon anime, a huge warning sign.)

If we're factoring in the chance that Pokemon doesn't get a rep, I would remove 25% of my chance scores for all 3 of these entries. If I got anything wrong or if there's anything else I should factor in, you can let me know.

 

[A Distant Demon]

I thinkall three have pretty decent chances TBH. All have one reason or another to get in the game. I would argue some are more of "sakurai picks" than others but ehhh.

Want:
Decidueye: 40%
It's a cool bird. Not my choice for a pokemon, but it's still an archer ghost owl. That's pretty cool by itself

Lycanroc: 0%
I like lycanroc (day form) at least, but midnight and Dawn are pretty meh if you ask me. And as for smashers I have absolutely no interst whatsoever. Hopefully if Sakura does choose this one it's one of his cooler movesets. . .but as a smasher I have no interest in it.

Mimikyu: 60%
I really like mimikyu. Not as much as Inciniroar, but it's definitely my favorite Pikachu-adjacent pokemon. Just. . .give it it's wholesome characterization. Not the evil anime one.

 

[Delzethin]

Okay then. Let's do this.


Decidueye

Remember when everyone and their cousin assumed this one was a lock? The cool new Grass starter with the archer motif got penciled into most speculators' lists before you could say "Alola", as many assumed Sakurai would naturally want to pick Decidueye to have a complete trio of starters. Problem is, based on everything we know about the guy and everything he himself as said in articles, Sakurai doesn't choose characters for the sake of filling quotas--they're judged on their own merits and what they could bring to the roster. When it comes to newcomers, it's not about who they are, it's about what they can do! To its credit, Decidueye does have more going on than just being a Grass starter, with a bit of supernatural spiritual stuff due to also being a Ghost type as well as the aforementioned archery. But its biggest point of uniqueness, and biggest strength, was its affinity for an element that was not present on Smash 4's roster.

But then Ivysaur came back, and Decidueye's greatest asset evaporated as if Thanos had snapped his fingers.

What we're left with is admittedly still an interesting option, but one that now has several glaring flaws. Its identity as a starter does not automatically give it a leg up, as we've only seen starters from Kanto and Kalos be playable. The near total lack of presence in the anime cannot be dismissed anymore, as we've seen one single appearance as cannon fodder for the enemy-of-the-week, and Ash's Rowlet hasn't evolved once yet and is clearly not the cornerstone of his team like his Greninja was in Kalos. And while being the second plant-based fighter in Smash wouldn't be a black mark, it sure makes for a less compelling choice when your closest competition would be the first of its kind.

Still possible? Sure. But this one's looking more like a repeat of Chrom and Zoroark by the day.

Chance for Decidueye: 35%

--------------------------------------------------

Mimikyu

Okay...so. Anyone who's seen me around the internet or watched my videos enough knows I'm skeptical on the idea of popularity solving all potential problems. Mimikyu is popular, sure, but I think too many are assuming that would force Sakurai's hand, despite that, y'know, never actually happening in the past. In fact, it overlooks how popular the Rowlet and Rockruff lines are, leading to a frustrating double standard of an argument!

But now, I think the best way to predict what Mimikyu's fate may be is by comparing it to its two closest counterparts. First, one within Gen 7:

Alolan Vulpix was an instant star from the moment of its reveal, eclipsing even the common Vulpix like it was nothing. The Pokémon Company took notice and pushed it hard, to the point where Alolan Vulpix has had the most merchandise of any Gen 7 Pokémon if you count back to early 2016. The comparison even holds in the anime as well, with a role as the signature 'mon of a secondary character. And arguably a bigger role, since Lillie and Snowy are involved in the plot more often than Jessie and her Mimikyu are!

Yet as we know now, Alolan Vulpix is set to be a summon in Smash Ultimate. An important role, but a secondary one.

But there's another 'mon with a similar background that wasn't so lucky:

Sylveon was another breakout star--the face of the new Fairy type had a level of star power practically on par with Gen 6's starters. The promotion was there, the popularity was definitely there just like with any Eeveelution, and there was even a decent amount of moveset potential built around fairy magic and the use of its prehensile ribbons. Yet all Sylveon got in Smash 4 was a trophy. Not even a summon!

We have seen repeated examples, both past and present, of 'mons whose popularity was not enough on its own to make them playable, and I do not think we can count on that suddenly changing now. With a step less upside than its competition, more potential hangups with its build, and a history of 'mons of its archetype not being playable, the odds aren't looking good for Mimikyu no matter how popular it is. Especially now that it (probably) can't rely on getting in alongside another new Pokémon anymore.

Chance for Mimikyu: 20%

--------------------------------------------------

So, where does that leave us?

Lycanroc

I've started to realize in the last few months that people outside the Pokémon fandom simply haven't realized what has gone on since Sun and Moon's release. They haven't found much reason to look mid-generation, and so anything notable that's happened has flown under the radar.

Anyone on the outside looking in, now's your chance to sit up and take notice, because a lot of little details came to light at E3 that put Lycanroc in an even better spot than before. Ivysaur's return hamstrings Decidueye's argument of being the roster's first Grass type without affecting Lycanroc's ability to be the first Rock-type/character with earth-based powers. A statement in this interview implies Smash Ultimate was never meant to be a port, meaning the game was planned with a late 2018 release in mind all along, opening the door wide for a character who first existed in 2016 but wasn't set to truly flourish until 2017. And this new focus on echo fighters opens more options for various Lycanroc forms to work with! Granted, that last one's a little iffier, but it's something worth considering.

All of this adds to a character who has grown into Gen 7's Lucario archetype, has the starring role in Ash's team like Greninja before it, wields an element that, with Charizard losing Rock Smash, is now completely absent from the roster, and according to this listing, has been pushed harder than even Alolan Vulpix in the past year. This thing had the pieces in place, it just took a year to happen, and with how far in advance the anime and other such things must be set up due to their nature as complicated productions, Sakurai would have been made aware that all of this was in the works. And even with veteran 'mons returning, there would still be reason to bring in a standout newcomer from a standout new generation in Nintendo's second biggest franchise.

Ladies and gentlemen, you may want to stop rolling your eyes and shaking your head. As of this point, Lycanroc is not only the most likely new Pokémon, it is now among the frontrunners for newcomers. Do not sleep on this one.

Chance for Lycanroc: 70%

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My interest in two of these three is as it was last time: I'm still the big Lycanroc champion around here, while Mimikyu would still rub me the wrong way as someone who dislikes the idea that newcomers should have advance approval of the masses, including those who aren't even interested in their games. But despite what you might think, I wouldn't mind Decidueye too much in the grand scheme of things. I still think there's something interesting there between the plant-bending and archery, I'd just rather it wasn't at the expense of a character I care about more who keeps getting written off in a way I am all too personally familiar with.

Want for Decidueye: 60%
Want for Mimikyu: 20%
Want for Lycanroc: 100%

Nominating - Concept: Custom Alternate Colors x5

 

[Starbound]

Decidueye: 30% chance / 50% want

Mimikyu: 5% chance / 50% want

Lycanroc: 1% chance / 20% want

Gen 7 Pokemon feels like a guarantee, though I don't think it's any of these (Tapu Koko makes the most sense imo). Decidueye is a cool fallback as it's an awesome Ghost-type, though I don't know what unique traits an archer has that would separate him from the rest of the cast. Mimikyu really doesn't make sense as a fighter, and Lycanroc even less so.

Nomz: Tapu Koko x5

 

[andimidna]

Decidueye:
Honestly, at this point, his biggest competiton could by Rowlet. There’s no fully evolved trio or whatever to fulfill, but this was still the most requested Pokémon as well as the one with easily the most personality and obvious raw moveset concept. Ok, the last 2 are subjective. It’s easy to get creative with mimikyu and Lycanroc and both have interesting concepts to their name too.
I’m not counting on a new Pokémon at the moment, so these scores won’t add up very high
Chance: 13%
(Rowlet chance: 7%)
Want: 75%
This was higher before. I feel p good about the Pokémon we have

Lycanroc:
Popular, pushes with promo, has competition. Doesn’t seem to be getting as much attention as he used to already. Maybe that’s just by the Smash fanbase?
Chance: 9%
Want: 5%
Don’t like his design. I was excited about Rockruff but then disappointed by this evo

Mimikyu:
Popular, interesting. Lots of competition for what might not get another character
Chance: 8%
Want: 70%

Sable prediction: 7.25%
Excitebiker prediction: 14.5%
Mach Rider prediction: 8.5%

x5 Daitoryo (Hanafuda/Napoleon)

 

[AquaSol]

https://www.reddit.com/r/pokemon/comments/7z2ifz/gen_7_popularity_poll_results_for_both_pokemon/

In this poll from an issue of the Japanese "Nintendo Dream" magazine from 3 months ago, Mimikyu was voted the second most popular generation 7 Pokemon. Rowlett is #1, Primarina is #3, Alolan Vulpix is #4, Dusk-Lycanroc is #5, and Decidueye is no where to be found. I have been aware of Rowlett's popularity for quite some time now, but I think we can all agree that his chances as a playable character are slim-to-none.

I can't believe that some people have pegged Mimikyu's chances at 0%. I am also shocked that Dusk-Lycanroc is commonly said to have better odds. I don't mean that as an attack - I do like Lyranroc a lot. His Midday form and Decidueye were two of my team members in Pokemon Sun. However, I do feel that Mimikyu has the best chance. Although Lycanroc is one of Ash's "aces" in the anime, Poipole is his "to-go" Pokemon right now. It spends much of its time outside of the Pokeball and has the majority of interactions with Ash and Pikachu. As for Decidueye, I simply see him as the popular starter Pokemon. Blaziken, Infernape, Serperior - every generation has one. He hasn't gotten anything special like Greninja or Charizard have - his appearance in Pokken is noteworthy, though. Overall, I believe that Mimikyu has the greatest chances given his popularity, marketability, and gimmicks.

Chances: Mimikyu @ 80%, Lyranroc @ 50%, Decidueye @ 30%
Wants: None in particular.

 

[A Distant Demon]

I feel like implying that absolutely none of Rowlet's popularity translates to Decidueye being is a bit of a stretch, and it's something that comes up a lot.
Decidueye is just not as mareketable/merchandisable as a cute, small, orb, but that doesn't mean that people who like Rowlet hate decidueye.

It also doesnt really matter TBH beacuse I dont think Sakurai really gives a **** if they're popular as long as thy arent completely irrelevant (none of our 3 characters here are)

 

[StrangeMann]

I can't believe that some people have pegged Mimikyu's chances at 0%.

I completely agree with this statement, but applies to the other two on this list too. Anyone who puts a 0% on any of these three Pokemon is not giving the Pokemon itself a fair look over (in terms of marketing or the Pokemon's role in game.) in my opinion. There's pretty cut and dry cases for all three of these Pokemon where people are just giving the Pokemon they like the benefit of the doubt without giving the other options a second look. I would highly encourage anyone who has given or plans on giving an entry on today's vote a 0% chance to please look at all of the options again, because I personally feel all three of these Pokemon have good merits and bad qualities as a smash bros fighter.

 

[Kotor]

Decidueye

Chance: 20%
Want: 0%

What exactly made Decidueye the default Gen VII newcomer of everyone's roster/newcomer prediction lists? Did his appearance in Pokken really warp people's perception of the ghost owl's ability to get into Smash? The starter line is popular. I can agree with that, but that's largely because of Rowlet. I kinda wish Rowlet was rated before E3 just to see people here dismiss it in favor of Decidueye. I still want to see the rating happen for the Grass Quill Pokemon. What else can I say about Decidueye? There was never a starter trio quota in Smash 4 & Ultimate. The priority of Ultimate was to get everyone back. The fact that Trainer just so happened to use the Kanto starters was a coincidence. Besides, I picked Litten as my starter in Moon. Of course I'm gonna want Incineroar over Decidueye.

Lycanroc

Chance: 50%
Want: 50%

Of all the three here, Lycanroc seems the most likely. He may not be the most popular Alola Pokemon, but he's among the breakouts. While Decidueye appears in Pokken, Lycanroc has a major role in the anime. Something a lot of kids in Japan watch (it's gotta bring in ratings if the anime is still being made Retire Ash when?). There was whole version form exclusive thing, and the Dusk form being added the Ultra games. I kinda boils down to what Lycanroc they use. Considering the anime is using the Dusk form, I wonder if that's the one we could get. Is there any evidence that Dusk Lycanroc was present in Sun & Moon's data.

Mimikyu

Chance: 20%
Want: 80%

it's got an anime role except the Mimikyu we are stuck with is the absolute opposite of how it was portrayed in the games. I hope we get a proper Mimikyu that just wants to be loved. Ash would definitely give it love (and we get some jealously episodes out of it). He would also use to lose at the Alola League spectatularity against Tobias's cousin, Gobias. Give Mimikyu to Lillie instead. Outside of the anime, Mimikyu is a breakout Pokemon from Sun & Moon. It's only behind Rowlet in terms of popularity. However, Alola Vulpix was another breakout Pokemon from Sun & Moon that was revealed to be a summonable Pokemon in Ultimate. That could easily happen to Mimikyu, but who here really knows? I love to see the little guy in Smash anyway.


Nominations
Rowlet x5

 

[NintenRob]

Chance
Decidueye 20%
Mimikyu 22%
Lycanroc 27%
Honestly I'm not even convinced we'll get a new Pokemon this time. With every character coming back we now have 9 PLAYABLE POKEMON and a limited number of newcomers puts Pokemon at less of a priority. The return of Pkmn Trainer has especially put a strain on Decidueyes chances. Lycanroc has less holding him back aside from the amount of Pokemon already.

Want
Decidueye 55%
Mimikyu 40%
Lycanroc 35%
I'd be OK with any of them, and while Decidueye is still my favourite, I'll admit one of the reasons I wanted was to complete that trio and compliment Charizard and Greninja. Honestly a Pokemon newcomer is definitely less of a priority now.

Predictions
Mach Rider 25%
Excitebiker 47%
Sable Prince 12%

Nominate Parabo and Satebo x1
All stages returning x4

 

[AquaSol]

I completely agree with this statement, but applies to the other two on this list too. Anyone who puts a 0% on any of these three Pokemon is not giving the Pokemon itself a fair look over (in terms of marketing or the Pokemon's role in game.) in my opinion. There's pretty cut and dry cases for all three of these Pokemon where people are just giving the Pokemon they like the benefit of the doubt without giving the other options a second look. I would highly encourage anyone who has given or plans on giving an entry on today's vote a 0% chance to please look at all of the options again, because I personally feel all three of these Pokemon have good merits and bad qualities as a smash bros fighter.

True that, I was pretty surprised. And yea, there are good cases for all three - they'd all definitely make interesting fighters. I always thought it would be cool if Decidueye's Long Reach ability would let his projectiles bypass reflectors.

 

[Luminario]

lmao some of y'all are still bending over backwards trying to rationalise Mimikyu as having a non-existent chance. Just to go over it again: it has arms under it's cloak that are incredibly long, it's easily capable of holding items by replacing the tail with it, it has more than enough material from it's movepool for an incredibly unique moveset, and Lycanroc/Rockruff and Decidueye/Rowlet can equally work as Pokeball Pokemon, did I miss anything?
Onto the ratings:
Decidueye: Chance 15%, Want 0%
Kinda like the Delphox of Gen 7, it's pre-evo outshines it with popularity. Very good moveset potential so that's definitely a plus here. Ivysaur returning means the starter trio reasoning doesn't really work for it anymore, though that was unlikely to ever be a reason to add it.
Lycanroc: Chance 20%, Want 0%
What it lacks in a convenient body type it gains in being a heavily pushed Pokemon of this Gen. Rock isn't remotely explored by any Pokemon on the roster though I fear it's canon movepool is rather blasé. Making rocks jut out of the ground would look pretty cool.
Mimikyu: Chance 35%, Want 100%
Heavily pushed, instantly charming, and fantastic movepool material. Having a Pikachu look-a-like already in the game may hinder it's chances, but that didn't really stop Mario or Link having 2 characters that look like them. I gotta be honest, I'm not confident of getting another Pokemon newcomer this time around, what with having like 9 now in the game, but if I'm going to bet on one being there it's Mimikyu.

 

[GoodGrief741]

After what was said today, I’m wondering why nobody’s nominating Rowlet. When did we start thinking it’s was a rule that only the final stage of an evolutionary line can get in? If Rowlet is more popular and has a bigger showing in the anime, doesn’t he have a better shot?

 

[TheDukeofDorks]

Decidueye
Chance: 5%
Piggybacking off of what Delzethin said, popularity likely wouldn't have been much of a factor when it came to choosing a Pokemon character for Smash. But, even if it had, is Decidueye really that popular? In the Pokemon fanbase, in the marketing for the series, and in the anime, Decidueye is not the major popular choice, Rowlet is. Mimikyu, Lycanroc, Alolan Raichu, BOTH of the other starter evolutions, there are so many other Pokemon that outpace Decidueye's credentials in every way.

And sure, it was chosen as a fighter for Pokken. So was Croagunk. I'd put money on its inclusion serving to better balance out the roster, and not due to the Pokemon's popularity. Because that wouldn't be a reason for it's inclusion in the first place.

Want: 80%
That said, I think it's an awesome Pokemon. I chose Rowlet as my starter, he was the only one of the three I bothered hunting a shiny for, and my loyal companion Zephyr remains my strongest Pokemon in Pokemon Moon. I'd love to get to play it in Smash.

Lycanroc
Chance: 35%
Cards on the table, I think there's a 50% chance that we'll get a brand new Pokemon in the base roster (Excluding echoes, i guess?). Another 40% is for Sakurai to wait for a Gen 8 Pokemon for DLC. Then a 10% chance we get both. (Those are definitely well thought out statistics that I did NOT make up off the top of my head) In either case, I think Lycanroc has got the best shot. It's been heavily featured in the Sun and Moon anime, is extremely popular, and has the potential for some interesting portrayals as a Geomancer.

EDIT: Also throwing in here that Sakurai goes to Gamefreak to figure out which Pokemon are going to be popular, which ones are going to be marketed. Based on how things have turned in the anime, I would guess that Lycanroc would be the character they suggested.

Want: 80%
It was already one of my favorite Pokemon, another I spent hours hunting a shiny for (Huon, for you LotR fans out there. But to be perfectly honest, with how limited roster slots seem to be this time around, I'm kinda hoping we skip a new Pokemon fighter, and stick to the Pokeballs. There are so many classic characters I want to see get in first.

Mimikyu: 19%
A percentage off for some off the wall pick like Tapu Koko or Rowlet.

Same credentials as Lycanroc, but with less unique factors. Don't get me wrong, I think there's room for Mimikyu to be an interesting fighter, but it shares its potential abilities with other characters on the roster, something Lycanroc does not have to worry about. Plus on a personal level, it screams "Pokeball Pokemon" to me.

Want: 30%

Eh. I caught it for completions sake in Sun and Moon and never touched it again. Never saw the appeal. Sorry.

 

[Troykv]

After what was said today, I’m wondering why nobody’s nominating Rowlet. When did we start thinking it’s was a rule that only the final stage of an evolutionary line can get in? If Rowlet is more popular and has a bigger showing in the anime, doesn’t he have a better shot?

I think because he's a cute little orb; and outside of the early Kanto/Johto Mascots (Pikachu/Pichu, Jigglypuff and their non-Charizard Starters), the rest of the playable cast is fully evolved.

 

[GoodGrief741]

I think because he's a cut little orb; and outside of the early Kanto/Johto Mascots (Pikachu/Pichu, Jigglypuff and their non-Charizard Starters), the rest of the playable cast is fully evolved.

Yeah, but when did we start discounting Pokémon just for being cute and small? I hear that a lot about Mimikyu too, as if our first two Pokémon weren’t Pikachu and Jigglypuff.

I guess with the Pokémon fanbase growing up they stopped caring about the cute ones and started liking the cool ones, but is there any reason we can’t get a third cute little orb in Smash?

 

[Pokechu]

Decidueye

Chance: 30%
Want: 0%

Decidueye sadly never appealed to me and while he can provide an archery playstyle, the other two can still provide just as unique move sets. Also he ironically pales in promotion compared to Rowlet

Mimikyu

Chance: 35%
Want: 30%

Now this little guy actually gets a fair bit of promotion, but I don't see Sakurai going for a third Pikachu and compared to the other two Mimikyu doesn't provide a new niche not yet in Smash (archery/rocks). He's cute though so that helps lol

Lycanroc

Chance: 55%
Want: 50%

He and Mimikyu are about on par with promotion, but Lycanroc has a prevalent role in the anime and provides a rock moveset currently not in Smash at all.

Also we need more doggos in the roster

 

[Strider_Bond00J]

Decidueye:
Chance: 55%
Although Ivysaur's coming back alongside the Pokémon Trainer, I don't think it should play too much into how Decidueye's chances are for Smash Bros. It's evolution tree has popularity, and Decidueye has more than a fair share of attacks that could help make it a distinct fighter from Pit and Link - Smash's main 'archer' esque fighters.

Want: 75%
Probably my personal pick for a Pokémon newcomer. Rowlet was my starter in Moon, and I think it'd probably lend itself to an interesting fighter in Smash Bros.

Mimikyu:
Chance: 25%
If it were to be a fighter, it would definitely be chosen as the oddball prediction, but I think it's more than likely going to be a Poké Ball Assist.

Want: 50%
Relatively neutral, but I'd be impressed if it was made into a fighter.

Lycanroc:
Chance: 25%
It is one of the more popular Pokémon of SuMo, and definitely in part from it's unique evolutions from Rockruff. True, it's wolf-like builds are unlike any other fighter save Duck Hunt Duo, but it's also the matter of which form they'll pick out of the three forms Lycanroc possesses.

Want: 5%
Personally, I don't really see the appeal of Lycanroc for Smash Bros. I don't really follow Pokémon all that much as I used to, nor the Pokémon anime where most of Lycanroc's popularity stems from. If there's an earth manipulating fighter that I want to see in Smash Bros, it's Isaac.

 

[colder_than_ice]

Chances
Lycanroc: 30%
Decidueye: 25%
Mimikyu: 20%
I feel that all three of them have a pretty good shot. It’s really hard to tell who the clear front runner is.

Want
Lycanroc: 80%
Decidueye: 70%
Mimikyu: 90%

 

[Kitty-chan]

Decidueye

Chance: 30%
My opinion hasn't changed much, besides Ivysaur being in the game possibly lowers his chances nya. I still think we're getting a 7 gen pokemon, though nyot as confident as before mew.

Want: 60%
Opinion hasn't changed nya. I'd be happy to see Decidueye in smash, but I wanya see Mimikyu playable first nya~


Lycanroc

Chance: 40%
Still the most likeliest pokemon nyucomer in my eyes. Lycanroc is fairy popular and is big in the anime nyapparently nya~

Want: 80%
Opinion hasn't changed nya. I like wolves, pointy rocks, and anything that can bite nya~


Mimikyu

Chance: 35%
Opinion hasn't changed nya~ Mimikyu is very popular and nyappears in the anime nya~ Nyalso has plenty of potential as a ghost type too nya.

Want: 90%

My most wanted Pokemon character nya~ It's cute, kinda spoopy, and has the whole "dresses up as pikachu because it's forever nyalone" thing going for it nya~ Naturally I'd wanya punch its face and watch it cry nya.

Opinion hasn't changed nya~ And never will mew. Nyalso, I wonder if Mimikyu, having those strechy arms of his, could play like Merkava from Under Night nyaaa~


Nyominations
Tingle: x5

 

[Lord-Zero]

Lycanroc

Chance: 30%
- Pokemon Trainer’s return made things kinda awkward for both Decidueye and Incineroar. Lycanroc benefited from it due to it being a Rock-type.

Want: 1%
- Meh. Not really interested.

Mimikyu

Chance: 35%
- It’s very popular and I could actually see it making the cut.

Want: 1%
- Meh. Not interested.

Decidueye

Chance: 30%
- See Lycanroc.

Want: 100%
- My favorite Alolan starter final evolution. I hope it makes he cut. I would love to see it as a Smash Fighter.

Predictions

Mach Rider: 19%
Excitebiker: 15%
Sable Prince: 1.2%

Nominations

Katrielle (Professor Layton) x4
Neptune (Neptunia Series) x1

 

[Delzethin]

Is there any evidence that Dusk Lycanroc was present in Sun & Moon's data.

Not in the games themselves, but the Pokémon Global Link had placeholders for additional forms from the moment it was updated for Gen 7. Seriously, check the date of that tweet in the link.

 

[Quetzal77]

Decidueye
Chance: 70% / Want: 50%
To me he still seems like the likeliest Gen 7 rep but I'm not convinced there will even be a new Pokemon. Gen 8 is not coming soon, Gen 7 is old news, but more Gen 1 representation from LGPE would be way too much.

Mimikyu:
Chance: 5% / Want: 0%
I still just can't imagine it. It strikes me as wishful thinking that just isn't realistic. Decidueye and even Lycanroc are much more sensible picks.

Lycanroc:
Chance: 25% / Want: 50%
I'd be fine with either him or Decidueye. Same basic thought process applies as well.

Nominations: Nekux5