Rate Their Chances- Smash Ultimate Day 340 - Lara Croft (Tomb Raider)

Erureido

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Dark Samus

Chance: 5% --> 30%

Much like Chrom, Dark Samus's chances are looking a lot better now with the addition of Echo Fighters. Much like Chrom, the character who had a palette swap based on the potential Echo Fighter in question is currently absent, and that could also pave the way for Dark Samus's implementation as a full-fledged fighter. That aside, we don't know how many more Echo Fighters Sakurai will implement, so I don't think she's a complete lock. I think her chances are roughly the same as Chrom's.

Want: Abstain --> Abstain

Copy and pasting what I said on Dark Samus's previous day.

I'm not that into the Metroid series. As such, I can't form an accurate want score on this character.
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Rex & Pyra

Chance: 75% --> 40%

Yeah, I'm not as optimistic about their chances as I previously was. With the amount of newcomers in Smash Ultimate's roster looking to be quite small, I have a feeling Rex & Pyra's recency situation will prevent them from making the base roster. As DLC fighters though, I think they are much more likely.

Want: 100% --> 100%

Copy and pasting what I said about Rex & Pyra's previous day.

While they are not my favorite Xenoblade 2 characters (that title goes to best girl Nia and best boy Zeke), I do like Rex & Pyra. They both have their charm, and I think they can bring a lot to Smash. Namely, if they are implemented as a duo, they can make use of the whole driver and blade dynamic that Xenoblade 2 is known for, with Pyra occasionally chipping in to deal attacks on her own (perhaps in a manner similar to how Carl Clover and Ada play out in BlazBlue). Overall, him and Pyra are currently among my most wanted.

Regarding Rex's outfit, I do think he has some GREAT alternate costume potential, particularly from the late-game:

Say hello to Rex's Master Driver costume, the outfit he dons from Chapter 7 onward after unlocking Pyra/Mythra's full power as Pneuma.




Looks pretty awesome and badass, don't you think? I think it would be very cool to see in Smash.
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Simon Belmont

Chance: 8% --> 80%

It seems like the stars have aligned quite nicely for Simon Belmont since we last rated him. With Snake returning for Smash Ultimate and the inclusion of Bomberman as an Assist Trophy, we know Konami was on board for Smash Ultimate, so they could've convinced Sakurai to add one more Konami rep to the roster: the iconic Simon Belmont. Sakurai even admitted to being a fan of Castlevania and noted its long history dating back to the NES days.

Moreover, we have that Vergeben leak out right now that has been accurate with its information thus far, and it's hinting Simon Belmont is among the newcomers. I'm among those that think Simon Belmont is looking to be pretty likely because of it.

Want: 50% --> 50%

Copy and pasting what I said on Simon Belmont's previous day.

He'd be pretty cool for a whip-based fighter; Smash could use one of those. We'd also get some rockin' track good tracks from the Castlevania series like this one if he were added.
If I was more attuned to the Castlevania series, I think this want score would be a lot higher (I first learned about Castlevania from the Bloody Tears IIDXX remix that showed up in DDR. Also a fun fact: I only just recently learned the footage they used in the song's BGA didn't even feature Simon Belmont, or rather, it was his ancestor that showed up in instead. Whoops, so much for thinking for many years Simon was in that video). If Simon Belmont does get revealed, I have a feeling I'll be much more excited for him then. He definitely has some cool potential for a fighter, as well as some pretty cool designs; hopefully Sakurai will add both of Simon's famous costumes.

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Nominations

Only 4-6 newcomers in Smash Ultimate's base roster: x5
 

Arcanir

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Dark Samus
Chance: 30%
The omission of Samus' costume and its absence as an AT is definitely eyebrow-raising, and with the rise of Echo characters that improves her chances even more since she could be brought in through that option thanks to her similarities to Samus and her pretty good popularity. What makes this uncertain is that we're missing about half of the ATs from the game currently, so her absence now could mean nothing.

Want: 65%
I'm not sure how I feel about her being an Echo since she can be a much more unique character then that, but it would be nice to see her in the game nonetheless.

Rex and Pyra
Chance: 35%
With Rex/Pyra, they're the newcomers I feel are based on a lot of hypotheticals. Do you believe that Monolith Soft made Sakurai aware of their existence? Did they even exist when Sakurai was picking characters? Etc. Basically, there's a lot of debate over their situation because it's almost completely new territory, and even with a potential example of Greninja there's still a level of uncertainty due to the fact that he's the lone exception currently. So for me, I wanted to look at the situation here:

  1. 2017 content seems to be limited, only BotW and Odyssey have gotten anything notable in terms of content, both of which were done by early 2017 (and BotW had multiple delays). Other games like Samus Returns, Splatoon 2, and the like seem to be very limited in content, if not non-existent.
  2. Monolith Soft doesn't seem to be very hands-on with the character picks. Takahashi mentioned that Shulk's choice and direction was pretty much given full reign to Sakurai, so there's nothing showing that they'd suggest Rex/Pyra over another character and/or in addition to Shulk.
  3. Similarly, we don't know how Sakurai is approaching getting newcomers from the series. Is he prioritizing new characters like Pokémon? Is he just interested in certain character like Elma or Cross? Or could he not be interested in a newcomer at all?
  4. It's still a grey area when Ultimate had its roster drafted.
  5. Greninja, while his situation a valid option for their inclusion, is still a lone case as it's the only time a character was included ahead of their debut without delays in their game's release (ex. Lucas), cloning (ex. Roy), or other such things. Additionally, there are differences in how Pokémon is handled that could've lend to that happening for him (and other Pokémon in the future) then other franchises, for instance TCPi tends to be more involved with the character process as Sakurai states he discusses with them over researching what's 'hot' and so on.
Basically, there's a number of variables here. We can't assume that XC2 content is going to be in the game as 2017 game content is light currently, we can't assume that Monolith Soft would let Sakurai in on XC2's production if he didn't ask for whatever reason, and we can't assume that Greninja's case is applicable since there are differences in how his and Rex/Pyra's franchises are handled relative to the other. If something doesn't go their way, then they could very easily have been overlooked, and due to the number of things that can easily go wrong with them I don't personally rate them too highly as potential playable characters for the base game.

Want: 50%
I don't mind either way, they have a cool concept, but I'm not too invested in the character otherwise.

Simon Belmont
Chance: 40%
Even ignoring the rumor, his fortunes definitely have changed. Konami is now at the table with Sakurai and they have negotiated with him the inclusion of Snake and Bomberman's AT. Castlevania is also a very popular franchise and Sakurai himself has noted it left an impact on him, so Simon could definitely make his way into Smash Bros due to the level of influence he has and having no notable barriers outside of the typical third party issues.

Want: 75%
Repeating what I said earlier, while Simon isn't the Castlevania character I'm attached to, I am still attached to the series. I still have fond memories of Rondo of Blood and Symphony of the Night, and there's a lot that you can do with the series between its areas, music, and items. I would like to see this series in Smash, and Simon would be a good character to represent it.
 
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Dark Samus
Chance: 15%
I think you people could be jumping to conclusions a little bit early with her not being anywhere in the demo at all. We have more than 20 Assist throphies to go and Meta-Ridley wasn't a costume in the demo. And I think some are overrestimating how big of a deal ''Echo Fighters'' will be. They're no longer relevant to the Metroid series and I think Metroid is pretty set with having Ridley as a newcomer.

Rex and Pyra
Chance: 85%
While the timing could possibly be a little off with the base game. I'm pretty sure they'd be high priority for DLC. And again, Sakurai loves Xenoblade 2.

Simon Belmont
Chance: 80%
I think the rumor is true, but besides that we now know Sakurai is on good terms with Konami. And the original Castlevania left a big impact on him, according to interviews.

Leon Kennedy x5
 
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Dark Samus

Chance: 25%
The AT and Samus's recolor are missing. The AT isn't too noteworthy on its own since a lot of ATs weren't in the demo. I have her lower than the other potential echoes from yesterday since I don't think Dark Samus is as popular as Impa or Chrom.


Want: 15%
She's okay? Never played her game and she'd be kinda lame without Phazon.


Rex & Pyra

Chance: 5%
Unlike last time I'm assuming this is base game only and I've gotten more cynical so I'm rating them super low. Ultimate is focused on pleasing fans so I highly doubt Sakurai would add characters whose game wasn't out yet, especially when there's fewer roster spots open. It's brought up that Sakurai liked their game but he only played it in December of last year, far too late for his positive opinion on the game to make any sort of difference during the selection period. The one thing going for them is that Skye Bennett tweeted that she's working on an exciting new project, which could be Smash similar to what happened with Shulk and Adam Howden, but even then it's probably something completely unrelated to Xenoblade 2 since she said it's work "outside of the XC2 franchise".


Want: 100%
By far my most wanted character. Playing Xenoblade 2 has honestly been the most enjoyable experience I've had with any game period. Rex & Pyra are two of my favorite characters from that game + the whole Blade system with weapon tosses and various supporting buffs would make for such a unique fighter that I'm not sure if I could truly consider this to be worthy of the title Smash Ultimate without them. Here's hoping for DLC!


Simon Belmont

Chance: 99%
I already believed the Vergeben leak which has basically been all but confirmed at this point but even outside that everything is lining up for Simon's inclusion. Yeah he wasn't revealed at E3 but Konami supposedly has an embargo on a game (i.e. one of the Castlevania games) until this Wednesday + Reggie said Nintendo has more surprises in the coming weeks and months, which could include a Simon reveal sometime after the new Castlevania game gets made public. We know there's more Konami content outside of Metal Gear since Bomberman is an AT. Sakurai has said he liked Castlevania back in the day too, so I could see some bias here on top of potentially high ballot results.


Want: 20%
Not a fan. Castlevania is not my type of game and I think Simon's over-the-top He-Man design is off-putting.
 
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Simon Belmont Chance: 40%
Konami is back in Smash and Bomberman blew himself and the door wide open. That said, will Konami or Sakurai be interested in the buff vampire slayer?
Then there's the Vergeben leak. I myself tend to stay away from leaks in order to rate a character, and thus this only serves as a way to reach my two sentences. Toodles!

Simon Belmont Want: 30%
He'd be cool I guess. Not attached to either Castlevania or his character, so his inclusion would only entertain me on a moveset or legacy based reason

It's Not a Phaze Mom! Chance: 40%
I tend to rate viable Echoes with a 30% chance, but Dark Samus has her AT and color MIA and from what we know of Echo Fighters, they're as cloney as clones can get and Dark Samus can pull off Samus's moveset and attributes no problem. Echo Fighters being a category also points to multitude of Echo Newcomers, obviously.

Want: 40%
Vindication for Metroid I guess?

Rex and Pyra Abstain
I don't think much changed for this duo specifically, aside from the generally small newcomer roster. Ult's reveal still didn't shed new light on timing of the two games

Balloon Fighter x5
Retroes are in a power vacuum right now, and with Villager's Up B returning this character is more interesting to rate than ever
 
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Only going to rate Dark Samus today. Rex & Pyra are a special case with sound arguments both for and against them imo, and considering the fact I'm not familiar with XC2 I prefer to not give an opinion. However I think it's fair to give them a chance score lower than the 64.69% they currently have. And for Simon Belmont, the fact I originally missed his day and his presence is suggested by a credible rumor doesn't make me want to rate him. So here's my updated rating for Dark Samus:

Dark Samus chances: 20%
Quite an upgrade from the embarrassingly low 0.07% I gave her exactly three weeks ago, isn't it? Anyway, the goods signs are that she hasn't been seen as an Assist Trophy and Samus' black costume now features yellow rather than phazon's cyan. As a clone of Samus she makes perfect sense, as we can already see in Smash 4 she reuses Samus' animations, and she would do the same in this new Smash. She could easily borrow Samus' hypermode abilities from Metroid Prime 3, even though she doesn't use them herselves in this game it thematically makes sense because both Samus' hypermode and Dark Samus are about phazon. Instead of releasing a bomb with her down B, she could use the same "turning into a ball" animation as Samus but instead release blue electricity arond her, working somewhat similar to Mewtwo's neutral air.

For her Final Smash, even though Dark Pit has one completely different than Pit's, I think it's reasonable to expect them to not change for echo fighters if it still fits the echo, so even though she could have an awesome unique Final Smash than summons a field of phazon around her, I'm still expecting it it to be a Zero Laser made of phazon instead or, in other words, Samus' Hyper Beam from Corruption.

So the question is, is Dark Samus popular enough on her own right to be added as a cheap clone for the sake of it? To be fair I'm not so sure, I suspect she's well below Ridley as far as popular Metroid characters go, and she only briefly appeared in the most popular game of the Prime trilogy and only if you reached 100% completion. So I have a feeling that Dark Samus might be either outprioritized by other echo fighter candidates or outright miss it.

Dark Samus want: 65%
Generally potential echo fighter candidates leave me indifferent, however this one is an exception. I loved the Metroid Prime trilogy and would love to see more content of it, and Dark Samus would be a low cost and satisfying way to represent the main antagonistic force of said trilogy.
 
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Simon Belmont

Chance: 75%
(Previous score: 20%)


Even without the leak I would have given him about 50% this time. Castlevania really feels like the next third party franchise Sakurai would want to go for. It's definitely iconic, and it's had a solid history with Nintendo. Sakurai himself has even mentioned it as a personal influence, which is pretty significant. Simon's also the very first protagonist, so he would be the clear choice for someone from the series. There were two notable obstacles that kept me from finding him more likely...both of which were eliminated at E3. Bomberman is only an assist trophy, and Konami content being in at all means the door is wide open for Simon's inclusion. Leak or not, he has a solid case, but I personally really do believe the leak at this point, so I feel good ranking him this high. Always a chance his part is wrong, but he really does make a lot of sense.

Want: 100%

Two out of three wouldn't be bad.
Wanted him even before the leak. One of the best third party choices out there, and I like what I've played of the series. He seems like someone who'd be really unique fun to play too. Really hoping the leak remains correct.

Dark Samus

Chance: 60%
(Previous score: 1%)


Still has almost no chance as a unique fighter. However, she's a fairly obvious choice for an echo character and I think she would make sense as one. Her assist trophy is among those missing, which doesn't mean enough for above 50% by itself, but Samus' alt being a no-show makes it a little more suspicious. Doesn't completely mean she's in, but if there are more echoes (and I'm sure there will be), then in my opinion she's one of the more likely.

Want: 90%

Dropped a bit because I got the Metroid character I wanted the most, and because I would rather have her as a more unique character, which I can't see happening. She's still a cool character though and my ideal Metoid lineup includes her, and sometimes you have to take what you can get. I don't mind having some clones around to fill up the roster even more, and she'd be one of the first choices I'd pick for one.

Rex & Pyra

Chance: 50%
(Previous score: 80%)


Yeah, I was too high last time. While I still think they have a shot, I'll admit the timing may not be right for the base game. Still feel like it's possible for them to pull a Greninja for the base game, especially since Sakurai appears to be a fan, but it's not like Xenoblade is as big as something like Pokémon is, and we could always just get Elma instead if Xenoblade gets someone. Of course I do think they'll be likely for DLC if they're not in base game, since Sakurai liked the game and it's the most successful Xenoblade game thus far. They just might be a little too late for the base roster.

Want: 55%

I love Xenoblade 1 and Shulk so it wouldn't bother me if we got anyone from either 2 or X in the game, and I'd probably end up liking them. That said I haven't played their game yet so I don't have a strong opinion on them. I'd be happy for their fans, though.

Nominations: Tails x5
 
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Dark Samus
50%
color was missing and AT missing but not a lock at all. I feel like she could be a last minute add in and they don't want to confim/deconfirm her so there just gonna keep her quiet.

want 80%
hey ridley is in so I'll take any metroid rep. Just want them to make her a fun charcter to use

rex and pyra
chance at 40%
to late in development from the looks of it. could be added in later as DLC but still not counting them total out

want
30%
I would want others more and with a limited number of newcomers they are lower on my list of wants

Simon
chance 40%
still don't belive the leak he could have just gotten info on what was going to be at E3 and just made a out there guess using the fact that Konami is in talks wiht nintendo. However they could have mentioned Simon when talking about Snake

want
30%
same as rex/pyra

nominating skull kid x5
 

Fire Emblemier

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Dark Samus:
Chance 25%
A potential echo fighter, but that's about it for the phazon clone.

Want 15%
While the metroid prime games are fantastic, Dark Samus never really drawed me in as a character. Honestly I would rather get a different echo fighter that at least wouldn't be as silent as Samus is.

Rex/Pyra:
Chance 20%
I wish they had a higher shot, but I just don't expect them anymore, would like to be surprised though.

Want 70%
Nice character design, lots of moveset potential, being from Xenoblade is a plus. If nothing else I hope the song Counterattack appears in the game.

Simon Belmont:
Chance 75%
If the rumors are believed to be true he would be a lock, but I'm keeping a little bit of skepticism for now.

Want 75%
Castlevania is a fun series, and its not hard to see what his possible moveset would be. Stuff like his specials could be powerups like the tomahawk, cross, and many more. The only problem is while I like Simon's sprite in the games, the design he'll likely have in Smash looks silly. I much prefer other belmonts like Richter, personally, but hey he'll probably be the blue palette swap anyway.
 

DaUsername

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Rex & Pyra
Chance: 5%
They're way too recent, their game was released only about a year before Smash Ultimate is supposed to. While a :4greninja: situation is possible, I just don't see it as likely.
And no, my ratings don't take DLC into account, those are for the eventual RTC thread after the game releases.
Want: 1%
The space for unique newcomers seems pretty limited this time, and there's a several characters I want before R&P, sorry.

The guy who was leaked
Chance: 50%
Leak guy has gotten everything else right so far, but after Gematsu, I can't completely trust leaks anymore.
Want: 60%
I've never been too big into Castlevania, but he seems like he'd be fun to play as.

Skipping Dank Samus

Predicting 20% for all 3 characters if predictions are a thing again.
Noms: All stages return x5
 
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TCT~Phantom TCT~Phantom when the results table is going to be updated to include the results for all rerated characters, can new scores be added and not completely replace old scores? Having both old and updated scores is good imo for retrospective purposes imo, and retrospective to compare our scores to what actually happened is pretty much the purpose of this game after all.

I also wonder whether we could rerate the concept of getting any generation 7 Pokémon newcomer at all alongside the three Pokémon we're rating tomorrow. Some people said they're being a bit less confident about it, so it could be interesting to see how its score gets changed from its current 84.54%, and regardless it would be interesting to see it evolve alongside the scores of these three Pokémon.
 

BluePikmin11

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I am skeptical towards Dark Samus at the moment. She does not strike as a character that would have been highly voted in the Smash ballot. I personally believe that any Echo fighter that gets in will be a result of high ballot popularity. If anything, most voters who voted for a Metroid newcomer likely voted for Ridley regardless of deconfirmation. I believe Ridley had very high demand in the ballot for Sakurai to change his mind on him. I do not believe Dark Samus would have a high amount of votes in the ballot to get in as an Echo newcomer. I could easily be wrong about the matter and maybe Dark Samus would've originally been an alternate costume to playable character like in Smash 4, but I personally doubt that would be the case. I think Sakurai will just port over the Dark Samus Assist Trophy and make the Dark Samus palette an unlockable color for Samus.

--------------

My views on Rex/Pyra getting in have changed somewhat. With the unique newcomer selection likely being smaller around with Smash Ultimate's direction of bringing back every veteran, the possibility that two unique Xenoblade newcomers could get in has shrunk. I think Elma could be the one that gets in as playable when it comes down to a process of elimination due to XCX being closer to Smash Switch's project plan. I am sure Xenoblade 2 could have been seen by Sakurai in 2016 back when the game was in development to consider Rex, but the possibility of him choosing them despite the release being far ahead is very low. The only exceptions I see when it comes choosing characters way ahead of time are Pokemon newcomers. In the worse-case scenario, Sakurai might view Xenoblade the same as Fire Emblem, giving only a 6-month early/late period in game release to consider a newcomer. Xenoblade X came out 6 months too early (noting XCX's Japanese release of April 2015) for Sakurai to consider her in the project plan in 2016. The cruel reality is that timing might just be the biggest reason we might not see a Xenoblade newcomer at all. Rex/Pyra getting in is a slim possibility to me now.
 

KHJason95

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Simon Belmont is a 50% chance for me

Rex and Pyra are both 25% chances for me

Dark Samus is a 0% chance for me

This is all my opinion, if you wish to agree/disagree, feel free to do so.
 

TCT~Phantom

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Calcs will be late, since I got roped into some fathers day stuff.

Updated schedule
6/17 Decidueye, Lycanroc, and Mimikyu
6/18 Excitebiker, Mach Rider, and Prince Sable
6/19 Isabelle, Shadow, Funky Kong, and Octolings
6/20 Bandana Dee and Elma
6/21 Dixie Kong and Isaac
6/22 Rayman and Crash Bandicoot
6/23 Paper Mario and Celica
6/24 Shovel Knight and Shantae
6/25 Geno and Dillon
6/26 Steve and Chibi Robo
6/27 Banjo and Kazooie and Andy
6/28 Professor Layton and Skull Kid
6/29 Lip and Travis Touchdown
6/30 Arle Nadja and Qbby
7/1 Concept: Rhythm Heaven Character, Concept: Gen 7 pokemon newcomer, and Concept: Arms Character

Today we will have Decidueye Lycanroc and Mimikyu. Tomorrow we have Mach Rider, Excitebiker, and Prince Sable. Carry on.
 

Lampy

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Decidueye want: 10000000000000000%
Only when Decidueye gets into the game will I feel that it truly earns its title of "ultimate". Decidueye is my third favorite Pokemon and its moveset potential doesn't resemble anything we have on the current roster.
Some people may have jumped ship because they got their precious grass starter in the game, but I stand firmly in the camp that just wants Decidueye for Decidueye. Also, at this point I just want him to be confirmed so that I'll finally be free of all the stress that comes packed with supporting a flavor of the month character. I'm with Decidueye until the end of the line.
Lycanroc want: 10%
I have nothing against Lycanroc (though I don't like its Midnight form at all), but I don't exactly care for it, either. Plus, the current size of the roster, along with Sakurai saying that we shouldn't expect too many characters, makes the competition between characters all the more fierce, so extremism shouldn't surprise anyone.
Mimikyu want: 0%
Honestly, I’d give it a negative score if I could.
If my "subtle" hints, VexTheHex's response from the other day (thank you for spoiling that, BTW -_-), or mere interactions with me, didn’t make that obvious, I don’t know what would.

Obviously I’m gonna give my reasons though.
I’ve never been particularly fond of Mimikyu. When it was leaked in CoroCoro it seemed like I was the only one that wasn’t. Its design never clicked on me (not big on other Pikaclones, but at least they were cute and weren’t purposely made to look like him) and its backstory did nothing for me either.
However, I remained largely indifferent to the Pokemon until I got back into Smash speculation.
Now, believe it or not, Mimikyu for Smash was a concept that dates back to before Sun and Moon’s release. When I saw people talk about it on NintenZone, I just rolled my eyes because I thought it was a half joke, half bandwagon. Flash forward to September of 2017, when I returned to Smashboards from my hiatus, I was surprised when I saw that it’s actually a rather popular idea…
My mentality was initially “Decidueye or death” - I disliked almost every other potential Gen 7 candidate purely because they weren’t Decidueye - that included Mimikyu.
As time went on I became more open-minded and started to be more accepting of some of the other Gen 7 fighters (to the point of being somewhat fond of the idea of Incineroar)... but not Mimikyu, mostly because A. I never liked it, B. The Mimikyu thread literally can’t go a single page without taking a jab at Decidueye, and C. There was one user that felt the need to carry that behavior over to the General Speculation thread.
One day, I had a confrontation with said user, which ended with me rightfully snapping at him. I was so mad that I would’ve become the strongest Sith in the universe if I were a force user... Oh, and it also turned me against Mimikyu for good.

It’s now my least wanted character, and it’s the only inclusion that could potentially kill my hype for the game, because on top of getting Mimikyu - which would mean the guy I yelled at would get his wish - it would also mean that the Gen 7 slot will be taken, and that Decidueye will never have his chance ever again. True, it would also happen with every other non-Decidueye Pokemon, but at least that slot probably wouldn’t be given for a Pokemon I thoroughly despise. I’m genuinely afraid of becoming “the boy who cried Decidueye” if Mimikyu gets in.

I will honestly admit that I might be overreacting, but that’s just how I feel.
Nothing's changed since then. Mimikyu is still the plague and the only thing that could actually make me not buy the game at this point.
Susie x5
 
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Opossum

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Decidueye
Chance: 50%
I definitely think we're getting someone from Alola. It was the big 20th anniversary region. Decidueye is popular and has a striking design that's easy to incorporate in a fighting game.
Want: 100%

Lycanroc
Chance: 20%
Second most likely due to promotion, but maybe Dusk came too late.
Want: 10%

Mimikyu
Chance: 10%
Sadly I think it's behind Decidueye, Lycanroc, and Incineroar in chance. I think it'll be a Poké Ball Pokémon.
Want: 1%
I don't want it if it's the bastardized anime version, which in all likelihood it will be. The one percent is benefit of the doubt.
 
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Before I start, I'm so glad we are redoing these. So much has changed with the reveal (looking at you Rex & Pyra). So thanks!

Decideueye
Chance: 70%
Still likely but one of the selling points was grass starter, and while that was never solid it's now out with the inclusion of Pokemon Trainer representing the starter triangle. Decideueye isn't super popular outside of Smash speculation.

Decideueye's best bet would be if Sakurai only looked at early designs and saw how cool and intreting Decideueye looked. But he could have seen the same with Inceniroar, and why aren't we rating him? Clearly Sakurai doesn't care about multiple type representation. Inceniroar is just as likely at this point honestly.

Want: 80%

Lycanroc
Chance: 75%
Eh don't really wanna say much on Lycanroc, but clearly represented in the anime and fairly well in the game. Pokemon Company could have suggested it and they are unique with the Rock typing and wolf style combat.

Honestly I still see issues implementing him, but Sakurai could find a way.

Want: 0% Literally no interest, other Pokemon are more interesting.

Mimikyu
Chance: 80%
So first off I still think a Pokemon newcomer is very likely. And Mimikyu is the only newcomer that didn't get pegged down a bit after the ultimate reveal. Still a unique typing, and still a popular pic. I can easily see the Pokemon Company recommended it to Sakurai and I can defintely see Sakurai creating a unique spooky themed Moveset for it.

Want: 100% So obviously biased, but after Ridley's reveal Mimikyu has become by number one most wanted.

(Just for Fun: Inceniroar 80%, seems more likely that Sakurai doesn't care about type representation with Pokemon).

EDIT: I know it's too late to change anything and calcs have been done, but for record I wanna change my Lycanroc chance knowing that the project plan was done a year before Sun and Moon's release. Early concept art of Lycanroc is boring and bad. 'Nuff said. He goes way down in the 25% range for me now. Mimikyu also goes down about 5-10% just because its a harder sell on popularity, but I do think the Pokemon Company could show Sakurai concept art of Mimikyu and elaborate that it will play a big part in the games, anime and merchandise. It's concept art is way better than Lycanroc and it's whole concept tells a story instead of just being a wolf. Decideueye and Inceniroar don't lose much.
 
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Decidueye
Chance: 40%
Definitely took a nosedive in chance with us now having 9 Pokemon characters and :ivysaur:being a grass starter. Still we have both :squirtle: and:4greninja:in this game so I wouldn't rule them out just yet.


Lyranroc
Chance: 45%

Slightly likelier than the owl due to being a type not yet represented in Smash, but I honestly don't know if we're getting another Pokemon newcomer this time around anymore.

Mimikyu
Chance: 5%

Popularity seems to be the only thing going for this mon. And that might not even matter due to timing. It also seems to me that crafting a moveset for Mimikyu would be alot harder than for the other two. And I can't help but feel :ultpichu:also might make a dent in their chances.

Leon Kennedy x5
 
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Decidueye

Chance: 40%
Want: 100%

Still think it's the likeliest Pokemon. But I'm beginning to lean to unsure now that we have 9 Pokemon confirmed in the game right now.

Lycanroc

Chance: 25%
Want: 10%

I think it could be possible, but there are other more likely Pokemon options.

Mimikyu

Chance: 30%
Want: 10%

It's a pretty popular Pokemon and is a frontrunner for Gen 7. Number 2 spot for sure. But I still think Decidueye would be the newcomer.

Nominate

Concept: More than 5 Unique Newcomers x5
 

BluePikmin11

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I remain confident that Lycanroc has the best chance out of every Pokemon newcomer due to the notable promotion the Pokemon has been getting with merchandise, anime, and games. I still see Decidueye and Mimikyu having low chances. I have my RTC analysis on Lycanroc, for anyone wanting further explanation on my confidence in the character.

x5 Hanafuda character
 
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Cosmic77

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Decidueye

Chance - 15%
Aside from being unique, this guy doesn't have much else that can help him. His popularity in the West came too late, he's not getting any notable promotion from Game Freak, and Ivysaur ruins the whole grass starter idea.

Want - 50%
I'm indifferent. Wouldn't care either way.

Lycanroc

Chance - 70%
Want - 100%
Same scores as before. Still think he's the most likely, what with all the promotion it's gotten. I'd love to see him get in Smash.

Mimikyu

Chance - 50%
Surviving E3 has me a little worried. If it isn't revealed as a Pokeball Pokemon soon, I might start bracing myself just in case.

Want - 0%
The addition of Pichu ruined it completely for me. It's stupid, I know, but I don't want a newcomer who looks like another Pikachu.
 
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Mr. Owl
Chance: 40%
I'm still confident we're getting a new Pokemon in the base roster, even considering the number of slots Pokemon has now, and I also still think Decidueye is the frontrunner for that spot. From early on in Sun & Moon's marketing, Rowlet always stood out as the most popular starter, and I feel Sakurai could have taken notice to this and added its fully-evolved form to the roster to capitalize on its early popularity, which has yet to fade thanks to things like Pokken backing it up. It also has the advantage of being a Starter Pokemon, which are pretty much iconic by default and seem to get preferential treatment when it comes to Smash representation - the only ones that aren't are Pikachu, the face of the franchise, Pichu, the baby from of the face of the franchise, Lucario, who was pushed to be overrated popular early on, and Jigglypuff, the oddball of the bunch who was at least somewhat relevant when it was added. Decidueye also has obvious moveset potential that's evident just in its design as a ghostly archer of sorts. (If anything, its Grass typing is secondary to that, for anyone trying to say Ivysaur makes it "irrelevant." The starter trio argument was, is, and always will be bad.) Pretty much the only thing going against it at this point is that it doesn't have a prominent role in the anime thus far, which may or may not even make a dent in its chances.

Want: 70%
Rowlet was my favorite starter of Generation 7 easily, and Decidueye itself has quickly shot up my list of favorite Grass- and Ghost-types. I also like the idea of a dedicated archer quite a bit, as we haven't really seen that in Smash yet. Decidueye gets my certified "Yes, please" rating.

Return of Cookie Crisp
Chance: 20%
Lycanroc is what I see as being basically Decidueye's only competition at this point. It was pushed early on to be the token popular mon of the generation and is also Ash's ace in the anime, which may lead to it being included for dirty marketing reasons. It also has unique moveset potential in its own right as well, having multiple forms to choose from as well as being Smash's only would-be earthbender and a quadruped. However, that quadrupedal aspect may be a curse in reality, as Lycanroc would likely run into a lot more logistical issues than its competition - carrying heavy items, wielding items like the Super Scope, grabbing and throwing, etc - that may lead Sakurai to spring for someone else. There's also the slim chance that he may have seen Lycanroc as being redundant considering Wolf's already in the roster, but I wouldn't bank on that. In my eyes, it all depends on whose toolkit Sakurai visualizes better in his mind, and considering the aforementioned logistical issues, I'm leaning towards Decidueye in that regard.

Want: 5%
I wouldn't exactly bemoan its inclusion, but I just don't care for Lycanroc at all. Between all of its forms, I find its design generic and mediocre at best, and outright repulsive at worst. There's also the matter of a moveset, which I would personally prefer to see from Decidueye than Rocky Wolf. I guess I'd at least be happy for its fans and wouldn't be outright upset to see it playable, unlike this next challenger...

Bootleg Merchandise-mon
Chance: 5%
Even if it didn't show up in the Demo anywhere (very few Pokemon did, in all fairness), I'm still confident it's gonna be a Pokeball Pokemon or a stage element. Its puny stature and general build just make it best suited for that role, quite frankly. It's popular, sure, and it has lots of merchandise... but that alone does not a fighter make. It lacks the overt potential as a fighter that Lycanroc and Decidueye both have due to its incredibly unconventional build and odd movement, which very much leads me to believe that even if The Pokemon Company itself told Sakurai to add Mimikyu, he would still more than likely go for someone else like Lycanroc, an Alolan Starter, or even one of the Ultra Beasts simply because he could visualize them fighting in Smash better.

Want: 0%
To repeat what I said last time we rated this freak in a sheet: can you say "overrated"? I sure can.
Not much else to add beyond that point, really. People love it because it wants to be loved, but that alone just doesn't do it for me. It's literally the attention ***** Pokemon, and for some ungodly reason, people fell for the act and bowed at its hypothetical feet in droves. And then there's the matter of its signature ability, a viability crutch which makes this otherwise mediocre mon annoying to contend with within its own series and that I think would absolutely not translate well into Smash. And beyond that, what does it really have that would make it stand out as a fighter? Shadow Claw/Shadow Ball? Mewtwo has both of those down pat, and it's not even a Ghost-type. A unique Z-Move? Pretty much all of its possible contenders have that, too. Play Rough? I guess, but... what, really, would that bring to the table other than just being a Fairy-type move, which likely wouldn't matter in the context of Smash? There really isn't much to convince me to even remotely like this dirty rag, let alone want it in Smash over Decidueye, an Ultra Beast, or even Lycanroc.

Well, since Geno's in the schedule as-is, I suppose there's not much of a point in nominating anyone. Still, might as well keep this interesting...
Tingle x5
 
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Decidueye
Chance: 2%
A Gen 7 Starter Pokemon.
Want: 0%
----------
Lyanroc
Chance: 20%
A Gen 7 Pokemon that has a special form in USUM and appears prominently in the anime.
Want: 5%
----------
Mimikyu
Chance: 80%
A Gen 7 Pokemon that appears prominently in the anime and has a connection to the series mascot and is marketed heavily and has a clear future in the franchise.
Want: 30%
 

Nerd Saga Nate

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Decidueye
Chance: 50% -
I can definitely see him getting in by Rowlet's popularity, but with so many Pokemon characters returning, will we even get another?
Want: 100% -
My favorite Gen 7 'mon, and one of my favorites in general.

Lycanroc
Chance: 20% -
He's got a big role in the anime, and he was heavily marketted, but a Pokemon like this never gets the same popularity as the starters.
Want: 0% -
I never cared for Lycanroc.

Mimikyu
Chance: 5% -
His popularity is his only saving grace. This character doesn't even have limbs! That's sort of a necessity for a game like Smash.
Want: 10% - Eh... he's cute, but I never really cared for it.

Nominations:
Sakura Shinguji x5 (If she is not already scheduled which I assume not)
Chun-Li Assist Trophy x5 (If Sakura is already scheduled)
 

Esquelen

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Decidueye
Chance:
40%
Sakurai likes to present unexpected characters (see Greninja) and Decidueye would be the obvious choice, so if they add an Alola representative, it seems to be someone else, not him.
Your chances have dropped further because there will be few newcomers in this installment.
Want: 58%
I would not have any problem if it is confirmed, I like the pokémon and its style.

Lycanroc
Chance:
15%
Honestly I see no reason to add it, it had its popularity before going on sale Pokémon Sun and Moon, but ... I just do not see it.
Want: 65%
Only if it is Lycanroc mindnight.

Mimikyu
Chance:
45%
I think that this pokémon is the one that would have more chances to appear as a fighter, is a Pokémon that not many people expect and has had great success, I could even say that it is more successful than Decidueye, if we have 3 links, why not 3 "Pikachus"?
Want: 80%
I need it in my life.
 

RandomAce

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Tbh, I’m starting to get tired of doing baseless speculation anymore (in general) so I’m only going to rate characters that I’m interested in. And I’ll wait for more information later on.

Re-rate: Pokemon “trio”:

Decidueye:
Chance: 60%

Similar score and thoughts I gave it before. Decidueye’s concept of being a Ghots Archer Owl can lend to a very unique moveset on the roster using leaf and paranormal attacks along with archery skills in a way no one else has done before. My only doubt with this character is if Decidueye was picked by Sakurai. So far, Game Freak hasn’t done anything with Decidueye, no important anime roles (or lack there of), merchandise, promotion? Nothing. The only thing Decidueye has received so far was a playable appearance in Pokken, and even then it was selected by Bandai Namco not Game Freak.

Then there’s Ivysaur, which was brought back along with Pokémon Trainer to fill that starter quota niche, that people have been dying for. Not a lot to make Decidueye less likely, but since everyone was meant to brought back from the start, I think it’s slighlty possible the devs passed on Decidueye. If Decidueye was picked as our Gen 7 Pokémon, I would presume that there would be more of a push for it, but it so far it hasn’t. And if he did made it, then TPC is just ass at advertising.

Want: 40%
Sort of a back story, but Decidueye was my first final evolution starter that I have in Pokemon. His design is cool, and it’s unique move set is interesting, but there is another Pokémon from Gen 7 I want rather than Decidueye.

Also I started to lose interest in the Pokémon. It was basically the only Pokémon people talked about when it comes to speculation, and it’s design and move set started to bore me.

Don’t get me wrong, I still love Decidueye in Pokémon and it’s one of my favorite Pokémon of all time, but there is someone else I want to be in Smash.

Mimikyu:
(Sorry Mimikyu fans but I need to vent out a little bit)

Chance: 20%

Popularity doesn’t make you likely to join the fray.

A similar score to what I gave Mimikyu last time, but Mimikyu is not one of the Gen 7 front runners for this game. The only fact I see people throwing out is that it’s popular, and that’s it. Everything else like Move sets, or unique abilities like Disguise are seen as after thoughts. Sure Mimikyu can be unique, but it’s design and nature is very unrealizable for a move set compared to Lycanroc and a Decidueye and various other Gen 7 Pokémon. Mimikyu design really lends itself as a Pokeball assist, since it’s very popular, but popularity alone doesn’t always get a character in the fight (see Chrom and Ridley in Smash 4).

Want: 10%

I really like Mimikyu itself in the Pokémon games, and even tried to get one and use it when I was playing Sun and Moon, but I would rather get another Pokémon from Gen 7 than have Mimikyu join instead.

Lycanroc:

Chance: 70%

A similar score I gave last time, I think Lycanroc is the most likely front runner Gen 7 Pokémon for Smash. There are a lot of things about this Pokémon that causes it to edge out the others. First, it’s uniqueness. Lycanroc has a lot of things about that can have it stand out among the roster, from it’s rock abilites, to it’s different forms, and move set possibilities with Dusk Lycanroc, there’s a lot of things that can make Lycanroc a unique fighter among the cast. Right now, I think’s it possible that they could also incorporate Lycanroc’s midday and Midnight forms to make it a stance fighter, similar move sets, but different playstyles. If they decide to use Dusk, then there’s the entire midday and midnight traits that it can use, with even more. There’s alot you can do with Lycanroc.

Second is Lycanroc’s prominence. Lycanroc is also a very prominent Pokémon ever since the Rockruff line was revealed alongside Midday and Midnight Lycanroc, all of the forms have been featured in the anime, have merchandise, have been advertised a lot, and the Dusk form is now Ash’s signature Pokémon in the anime. Lycanroc is also a fairly popular Pokémon as well, even we’ll after their reveal (well maybe except Dusk when it was first shown). There’s just a lot of things that point at Lycanroc at being our next Pokémon fighter for Smash.

Want: Midday/Midnight: 100%
Dusk: 85%

Hopefully I didn’t seem bias in my ratings, but Lycanroc is my favorite Pokémon of all time. It was actually the main reason why I decided to get into Pokemon in the first place, and I went to get all of the Lycanroc forms in Ultra Moon and made them apart of my teams. Lycanroc is the main Pokémon I’m pushing and if he/she gets in, I would be very ecstatic and make it one of my mains in Ultimate.

I do hope that Lycanroc uses it’s Midday and Midnight forms because those forms (especially Midnight) are my favorite forms of Lycanroc and I would like it even more. Although I wouldn’t be mad if Dusk gets in instead, I don’t like it as much as the other two and I would be sort of bummed out, but happy nonetheless.

Nominations:
x5 Ayumi Tachibana

And with this, I’ll sign off from speculating for a bit until the next reveal.
 
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Just gonna preface this by saying that I think the likelihood of a new Pokemon in general has taken a slight hit now that we know the series already has 9 non-echo characters. It's not too big of a deal since iirc the only time Sakurai was concerned about over-representation was with Corrin (and he still added them), and it's freaking Pokemon so you'd have to really push the envelope to make a difference.

Decidueye

Chance: 15%
Decidueye does have a striking design, but it's never really been all that popular in the Pokemon community. The fact that Ash still has a Rowlet and the lack of Decidueye merchandise makes me think that Decidueye was never intended to be popular the way Zoroark and Lucario were. And since Ultimate is clearly drawing on popularity (the #1 thing I'm going off of in my ratings), Decidueye doesn't seem nearly as likely anymore.


Want: 60%
He'd definitely be really cool and interesting with an archery based moveset, but I picked Popplio so I don't like the guy too much.


Lycanroc

Chance: 30%
Unlike Decidueye, Lycanroc has been heavily promoted all throughout Generation 7. The insane amount of Lycanroc & Rockruff merch, Ash's ace being a Lycanroc, the exclusive Z move, the 2 version exclusive forms + Dusk form all lead me to believe that this is a Pokemon who was created to be popular. And there were definitely plans for Dusk form early on since GameFreak locks mythicals for forever, the anime has to be planned out, and iirc a 3rd Lycanroc file was datamined early on in Sun and Moon's lifespan. The marketing did pan out since Lycanroc was the 5th most popular Alolan Pokemon in that one poll that keeps getting brought up. This gives Lycanroc an edge over Decidueye since Sakurai's mission in this game is about pleasing the highest amount of fans, which would be better done by adding a more popular fighter.


Want: 100%
One of my favorites from Alola alongside Alolan Ninetales and Nihilego, and the only one I used in my in-game playthrough. Plus I just love dogs.


Mimikyu

Chance: 25%
Mimikyu is insanely popular and heavily marketed, just less promoted than Lycanroc because of the anime. He is more popular, scoring a close second on that one poll, but Sun and Moon weren't out when the roster was decided so Sakurai probably went off of who GameFreak planned to promote more. Sakurai could've waited until release to see who was better received though, so there's not that big of a gap between Lycanroc and Mimikyu.


Want: 100%
I kind of lied when I didn't mention Mimikyu in Lycanroc's paragraph. This is my fourth favorite from Alola, and one I did catch for my in-game playthrough. Plus it's super good in Battle Spot so I've always had a soft spot for the little guy.
 
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Troykv

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All three of them are solid choices, and I'm sure we'll get a Gen7 Pokémon regardless of what happens... but the predictions aren't that obvious this time.

The Three Pokémon Chances: 30%

Now I see them as equal in possibilities to appear because of pretty much all the pros and cons they have in their own (Dedicueye unique and appealing design; Mimiyu's popularity and interesting design; and Lycanroc's advertising push and potential gimmick).

Want:

Decidueye: 60% (A very cool design)
Mimikyu: 50% (Not my cup of tea, but definitely has their appeal)
Lycanrok: 40% (A bit bland, but would surprise me)

_____________-

Predictions:

Mach Rider: 11.4%
Excitebiker: 25.6%
Sable: 9.6%

________

Nominations:

Tingle x3
Leon Kennedy x2
 
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Lycanrox (heh) and Mimikyu both get 20% chance, while Decidueye gets 15%
I just don’t see us getting a new Pokémon this time around, but Mimikyu and Lycanroc at least have publicity to back them up.

Want scores:
Mimikyu 60% I like his design
Decidueye 40% I like his design, but he screams flavor of the month to me
Lycanroc 10% His design is generic at best and hideous at worst

Nominations (are we still doing these?): Ayumi TachibanaX5
 

AlphaSSB

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Decidueye

Chance: 15% - Popular Pokemon whose concept would make for an excellent addition to Smash. I think what Decidueye has to offer, as well as that fact that he's a starter in general, may be enough for him to be selected. However, if Sakurai fails to envision a full archery-based moveset for him, I can see him easily regulated into a Pokeball Pokemon. However, with Squrtle, Ivysaur, AND Pichu back, I wouldn't be surprised if we don't get a Pokemon newcomer this time around.

Want: 100% - Due to multiple characters being confirmed and deconfirmed, Decidueye is now my 2nd most wanted newcomer. There is so much that he can do, and it'd be a shame to see him passed up on.


Lycanroc

Chance: 15% - Probably the most likely Pokemon newcomer due to his heavy promotion and prominence in the anime, even though I put his chances as equal with Decidueye. Would undoubtedly appear in his Dusk form, and would be unique for sure. Quadrupedal with geokinesis? A lot you can do with that, and I'm sure Sakurai knows it. However, I'm still not sure if Pokemon will even get a newcomer this time around, so 15% is the highest I'll go.

Want: 80% - Delzethin is quite convincing. Lycanroc isn't my first pick, but definitely my second. I'm a fan of the Midnight form myself, but Dusk, or any form, would be fine by me. Lycanroc has tons of potential in Smash, and would truly be something we've never seen before. Would be pretty hyped to see him, actually, even though I prefer Decidueye.


Mimikyu

Chance: 1% - I've no idea why Mimikyu is so highly rated in terms of chance. Mimikyu has a lot of competition to deal with, being but not limited to: Decidueye, Lycanroc, Incineroar, Tapu Koko, Golisopod, Kommo-o, Buzzwole, etc. I think Mimikyu has an incredibly high chance of being a Pokeball Pokemon, though.

Want: 0% - Mimikyu would be great as a Pokeball Pokemon, perhaps as a successor to Gulpin, but I see nothing in value when it comes to Mimikyu making it onto the roster.


Nominations: Slippy Toad x5
 

Zema

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Decidueye
Chance: 70%
He's a representative of a contemporary Pokemon generation, and Sakurai has been pretty consistent with adding a Pokemon from the latest generation to his games (Pichu in Melee, Lucario in Brawl, Greninja in 4) and I fully expect him to continue this trend. I only waver on a potential addition because of the amount of Pokemon reps already in the game, especially now that even Pichu is back. Still, Decidueye seems like the best candidate for this current gen, I suppose.

Want: 0%
I don't like contemporary Pokemon and Decidueye is no exception. Boring design.

Lycanrox - Abstain

Mimikyu
Chance: 0%
I understand his popularity, but I really don't see how he could be a fighter at all. I see him as a fine Pokeball pokemon, but definitely not anything beyond that.

Want: 0%
As I said, I have very little interest in contemporary Pokemon, and Mimikyu, while cute, doesn't really seem to be a conventional fighter.
 
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Decidueye - Chance: 20%

The Grass type argument doesn't work as well anymore and people saying we need an archer confuse me, I really doubt he would use arrows for most of his attacks. Also he has not had a lot of promotion.

Want: 10%

He doesn't really interest me.

Lycanroc - Chance: 60%

The most likely Pokemon in my opinion, heavily promoted especially with the anime. We are yet to see an earthbender character so this could allow for a very unique moveset knowing the amount of Rock moves in Pokemon.

Want: 80%

Lycanroc sounds like an interesting and unique fighter.

Mimikyu - Chance: 5%

I don't understand the fuss about this guy and I do feel the inclusion of Pichu has lowered his chances. He seems like he would be a really awkward character in my opinion.

Want: 5%

Same as what I think of his chances.

Nominations: Rhthym Girl/Tap Trial Girl x5
 
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Decidueye

Chance: 45%
Ivysaur definitely lowers his chances. He's still got one of the higher chances out of all potential Pokemon newcomers. But there's not as pressing of a need to introduce a grass-type starter as there would have been.

Want: 100%
He's one of the coolest modern Pokemon designs by a landslide, and he'd have a unique moveset as well.

Lycanroc

Chance: 15%
The anime is promoting him and the character is sort of one of the faces of the series right now, to an extent. Then again, Zoroark was in a similar position, and his chance faded over time. This situation could end similarly.

Want: 50%
It's a wolf character. That'd be really cool!

Mimikyu

Chance: 0%
During the E3 2018 presentation, Sakurai said that he's hoping fans don't expect too many new additions. This, in my opinion, condemns the chance of a unnecessary character such as Mimikyu. Yes, he's popular. Yes, he's promoted. But I'm having a hard time believing that, in a limited newcomer pool, they'd be willing to give one of a handful of slots to Mimikyu. It'd be a joke. The developers know it'd be a joke. It would be an insult to characters like K. Rool, Geno, etc.

Want: 0%
I don't want three Pikachus. The three Links is an understandable situation because of the focus on bringing back every veteran. This would not be. It's the same reason why I'm against Paper Mario. I am of the belief that we simply do not need a three or more versions of what is essentially the same character. I want to see the developers put their creative minds to use.

:131:
 

Slyshock

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Interesting how some ratings add up to more than 100%. Are people anticipating multiple newcomers from Alola?
Overall giving a 60% chance of seeing one of these characters playable, the remaining 40% is for either another Pokémon instead or none at all.

Decidueye

Chance: 20%
Decidueye could slip in based on moveset niche, but the lack of promotion hurts. Then again, Bandai Namco is helping to develop Ultimate. They added Decidueye to Pokkén as the first, and so far only, Alolan representative. If they have any say at all as to who gets chosen, I can see them pushing for their apparent favorite above all others. I'm sure the starters were all possibilities Sakurai could've chosen from, considering the eternal glory that comes from being the first Pokémon of several million people.

Want: 65%
Probably my favorite fully-evolved Alolan starter, though that's not saying a whole lot. A bullet-laden battlefield would be fun to fight in, and few are more likely to cultivate one than Decidueye. Might have a bit of trouble at close range, but with smart use of ghost abilities it might not be so hard to escape.

Lycanroc

Chance: 30%
Nothing drastic's changed on the Lycanroc front, it's still the most likely. It's got thrice the prospective models that most of its competitors have, as well as a marketing push that's existed since before the games were released. If the powers that be had enough say in who Sakurai would choose, there's a good chance they pulled the strings for Lycanroc over anyone else. Only change is its competition being weighed more heavily.

Want: 70%
A focus on creating stage hazards sounds like fun, and something that'd be a natural fit for an earthbender. How its other moves work out would depend on form, but all of them are potentially interesting. Personally rooting for a quadruped, but Midnight would be fine too.

Mimikyu

Chance: 10%
Pichu's return really put a damper on Mimikyu's odds. Sakurai probably decided early on to bring back every veteran, so even if Mimikyu was being pushed I'm sure there'd have been resistance. Putting effort into another lookalike would be controversial, and due to its unique properties it probably wouldn't serve well as an Echo. That's not fair to Mimikyu since it's not a true Pikaclone and could bring an interesting angle to fights, but that's the downside of derivative designs.

Want: 40%
Everything I said before applies, only this time Pichu exists. I wouldn't mind having this silly bias eradicated by a creative fighter, however.

Nominations: Nikki x5
 
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Decidueye
Chance: 70%
Want: 85%

Lycanroc
Chance: 35%
Want: 15%

Mimikyu
Chance: 25%
Want: 20%


Noms:
Female announcer x5
 

Louie G.

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So to kick it off, I think the chances of a Gen 7 Pokemon overall is about an 85%. Pokemon may already have quite a bit of rep, but adding a new Pokemon from the current generation is somewhat of a tradition. Traditions can be broken, and with the presumably limited newcomer lineup this time around it very well could be, however adding a cool new Pokemon isn't something I see Sakurai skipping out on. And, like most of you probably, I'm pretty confident it will be one of these three, so without further ado...

Decidueye
Chance: 40%
This is a lot lower than I was expecting to give, but since I'm splitting up my 85% between the three I suppose it makes sense. I still consider Decidueye to be the most likely of the pack, given his dynamic design and unique abilities coupled with his popularity being the greatest among the starters. At a certain point it was pretty clear that Decidueye was being set up as the "Greninja" of Gen 7, although I don't think that holds true very much anymore. Still seeing as that seemed to be the case shortly after Gen 7's release, around the time Sakurai would have likely been deciding on the roster for Smash Ultimate, it would make a lot of sense to see Decidueye make his debut on the roster. He's playable in Pokken as well, which could have two possible effects if any on the decision to include him; Pokken could allow Decidueye to stand out as a Pokemon with clear fighting potential, or maybe Sakurai would like to give another Pokemon a shot in Smash since Decidueye already got his elsewhere. Personally I think it helps him more than hurts him, but it's worth pointing out. But yeah, I'm pretty confident in a Gen 7 Pokemon and I think Decidueye still has the best shot, but he's the one we were expecting and we all know Sakurai likes to throw curve balls.

Want: 80%
I think Decidueye has some fantastic potential as a fighter and I think he would fit into Smash perfectly. I'm also a big fan of grass types in general and really wanted one in Smash Ultimate, and although Ivysaur fulfilled my desire I wouldn't be upset to have another. Decidueye is the "boring" pick for Gen 7, the most expected newcomer of the bunch, but sometimes I think that can be the right choice. Still I love it when Sakurai can surprise me and in the back of my mind I'm kind of hoping and thinking that's what he'll do.

Lycanroc
Chance: 30%
I've been kinda out of the loop on Pokemon for a while, so I didn't really know who Lycanroc was until a few weeks ago. I was surprised to find out how prominent he was in the anime, filling the Greninja role more than Decidueye who I was wholly expecting to do that. Importance in the anime isn't a guarantee, afaik Sakurai decided on Greninja before he knew about how heavily he would be marketed, but it's certainly worth considering. Between his Dusk and Midnight forms he also does a pretty good job of representing Sun & Moon as a whole, and bringing to the table a potentially interesting playstyle not just through his alternate forms but also by being a traditional quadruped fighter. Importance and moveset potential certainly aren't an issue, so why is his chance only 30%? I'm pretty certain that we're only getting one of these three, and they're all great picks in my eyes, so it's really just based on instinct.

Want: 70%
He'd be super cool, would be a nice and refreshing surprise. I think he could bring a lot to the table and be really unique among the cast. Not much else to say, I'd welcome him with open arms. Four legged fighter would be rad.

Mimikyu
Chance: 15%
I can see it, he's certainly an oddball pick although I see Mimikyu more as a Pokeball summon than a character. Not counting it out although it would definitely offer an interesting fighting style and Mimikyu is pretty marketable, probably the most out of these three. I don't think it would be the Pokemon that Pokemon Company recommends Sakurai use nor the Pokemon that immediately stands out to Sakurai as fitting for Smash but you never know. I wouldn't be shocked to see Mimikyu, but out of this trio it's definitely the one I expect the least. Honestly the thought that we could get three Pikachus is funny enough to actually be a possibility.

Want: 60%
Mimikyu would be pretty fun I think, I'd definitely enjoy if it was added. Ghost/Fairy typing is cool, Mimikyu's whole hidden limbs thing and whatever could be interesting. Don't have too much to say, I like the design and it could be fun.

Nominations: Chorus Kids x5
 

Delzethin

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Two things I want to touch on before I go into my full post:

1. Remember, we're probably looking at a window of Summer 2016 for when Smash Ultimate's newcomers were picked out. This would've been a few months prior to Sun and Moon's release, creating a situation kind of like Fire Emblem Awakening last time where the game isn't out yet but is nearly finished and has all the necessary information for Sakurai and the devs to account for. More importantly, since the games weren't out yet, it means popularity couldn't have been a factor in who from Gen 7 was chosen.

2. I've seen some people argue in here and elsewhere that Squirtle, Ivysaur, and Pichu coming back eliminates the chance of a new Pokémon...but when has that held true in the past? The Pokémon Trainer's first go didn't block Lucario from getting in, Bowser Jr. didn't stop Rosalina (In fact, Rosalina was higher priority!), and Roy returning through DLC sure didn't close the door for Corrin, did it? Combined with a steadily rising focus on newer rising stars as the series has gone on, and we have very good reason to think a Gen 7 newcomer is still likely. Though probably not more than one.
 
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Preface

I'm making a preface, because a lot of this applies to all three of the Pokemon.

We know for a fact that Game Freak chooses which Pokemon are included in Super Smash Bros., not Sakurai or anyone else on the Smash team. We've also seen in the past that the Pokemon included in Smash generally fall in line with either their involvement in the anime:
Or their general popularity:
  • Pikachu being the mascot of the franchise
  • Mewtwo during the late 90s / early 2000s
  • Charizard, and the other Kanto starters to a lesser extent
It is these ideas of popularity and anime involvement that tie together to become what are some of the most marketed Pokemon of each generation. So I feel like it is generally safe to assume that the other three should follow the same guidelines.

Decidueye

Chance - 3%

I'm going to be killed for saying this here.

In terms of popularity, Rowlet does great! First place! Tons of merchandise! But Rowlet isn't Decidueye.
In terms of Decidueye's popularity, he falls behind the other Alolan starters, with Primarina, Mimikyu, Lycanroc, and Incineroar all out placing it.

Well, what about in the anime? Once again, phenomenal placing by Rowlet! Look at all those episodes! But once again, Rowlet isn't Decidueye.
Decidueye appears in one episode. One. In the episode, he gets crushed by Incineroar.

There's no movies, no role as one of Ash's star Pokemon, nothing. Hell, from leaked artwork, we've seen that Ash's Litten will be evolving into an Incineroar, while Rowlet remains a Rowlet. Its claim to fame is that it is related to the most popular Pokemon of the generation. Decidueye is riding off of Rowlet's popularity, and nothing else. It would honestly make more sense for Game Freak to put in Rowlet over Decidueye.

Something also worth noting: Decidueye's inclusion in Pokken DX was not chosen by Game Freak, as Smash Pokemon are, but rather by the developers themselves.

Because of this, I don't think Decidueye would be chosen for Smash, unless Game Freak REALLY wanted to promote Pokken Tournament DX over the main series games or the anime.

Want - 75%

Which is a total shame, honestly.
I adore Decidueye's design and what he brings to the table in terms of moveset potential. I just wish he came from a better game.
Mimikyu

Chance - 10%
Along with Lycanroc, Mimikyu is easily one of the most promoted Pokemon of this generation, getting his own little rap diddy, being one of Team Rocket's main Pokemon in the anime, being the only non-starter Gen VII Pokemon to appear in Pokken in someway, all that good stuff. Alongside that, he's super popular.

However, I think the main thing it holding it back is not only its competition against numerous other Pokemon in a similar spot, but also its claim to fame: being how it is entirely based around a Pokemon already existing in the roster. In the case that Smash 5 goes through a similar case of Smash 4 where Sakurai is presented numerous Gen VII Pokemon designs and can choose a few of them to think about, I really doubt Mimikyu would be a top pick.

It's a popular Pokemon for sure, but I think that is what a lot of it is riding on.
A lot of my thoughts haven't changed. It has popularity, but that's about it. However, I also feel like Pichu's return is also pretty detrimental to its chances, considering we'd then have three Pikachu-esqe fighters in the game, FOUR if the Alolan Raichu Pokeball Pokemon is to be counted. Granted, we have three Links already, but that's just because we've had three Links in the history of Smash. It just doesn't seem likely to me, especially because unlike the Links, Pikachu / Pichu and Mimikyu would likely play very differently.

Want - 30%
I honestly love Mimikyu, he was one of my stars on my Sun and Moon team, despite how terrible I found those games to be. He also certainly has the moveset potential for being in Smash, shadow claws, whacking a stick around, a disguise gimmick, all that good stuff.

However, the idea of giving what is essentially just a bootlegged Pikachu an entirely new moveset kind of puts a bad taste in my mouth. It'd be like if Dark Pit or Dr. Mario got fully decloned movesets. As a Smash fan, it just kind of seems like a waste of development time.
Lycanroc

Chance - 40%
Lycanroc has been one of the go to "promotion" Pokemon for Generation 7, most notably seen through his role as Ash's key Pokemon in the current Pokemon anime, which has always been an incredibly important when creating Pokemon in Smash as seen by:
  • Every Pokemon in Super Smash Brothers has their anime voice, rather than generic grunts or noises
  • Jigglypuff was chosen solely based on her role in the anime
  • Pikachu, Charizard, and Greninja have all been or still are prominent members of Ash's team
  • Mewtwo and Lucario have had movies dedicated to them, with Lucario being the only non-Legendary Pokemon along with Zoroark
Granted, being in the anime doesn't mean everything (see: Zoroark), but the timing this time around is much nicer for the idea of a Gen 7 character rather than a Gen 8 character (unlike how a Gen 6 character was chosen over a Gen 5 character in Zoroark's case), as well as the Rockruff line being used a lot more in marketing, such as starring in its own manga, amongst other things, like being Professor Kukui's main Pokemon, his appearance as one of the main rival's main Pokemon in the latest Pokemon movie, and having his own unique Z-Move.

Really, the only reason I wouldn't give him a higher score is because there are a lot of other Gen 7 Pokemon in similar spots, especially Mimikyu, along with some others like potentially Tapu Koko, Incineroar, and even the aforementioned Decidueye.

Really, I hope when E3 comes around and we do those Overrated / Underrated character discussions, I hope Decidueye is one of them. I think he is by far the most overrated character currently by a landslide. I think we really pulled a Deoxys / Zoroark sort of thing with him.
His chance went down a bit personally just because of limited newcomer space this time around. But for the most part, my thoughts remain the same.

Want - 0%
Despite the fact that I think Decidueye is extremely overrated in chance, he's wanted for a good reason. His moveset would be super cool, and same goes for a lot of other Pokemon. I can't really say the same about Lycanroc. Every idea I've seen for a moveset just doesn't jump out to me, and I'm not a fan of his Dusk or Night forms, and were he to get into Smash, he'd most likely use one of them over his default Day form.

We have one dog (and his duck buddy) in Smash right now, and currently, that's enough for me.
 
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