Rate Their Chances- Smash Ultimate Day 340 - Lara Croft (Tomb Raider)

Depressed Gengar

Hana Is Best Girl
Joined
Aug 13, 2013
Messages
4,832
Location
The Johto Region
3DS FC
2922-0445-5244
Skyrim Chance: 10%
It might get something during DLC but for the base game... yeah it's getting nothing. And even then I just don't see it.

Want: 50%

Final Destination V2 Chance: 90%
Given how Sakurai kept nearly everything from Brawl, why would this get axed? It's not impossible but... why?

Want: 100%
Good song.

Lara Prediction: 15%
Bubsy Prediction: 5%

Nominations: Rex/ Pyra (rerate) X5

:094:
 

TheDukeofDorks

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Mar 9, 2018
Messages
193
Runic_SSB Runic_SSB

This is a game of prediction. I can confidently say outside of Ridley and Sora who I feel the thread underrated, or potential last minute clones like Funky or Chrom, these ratings are decently accurate. If you honestly think that Minecraft, the second best selling video game of all time that is still relevant over a decade after it launched has no chance that you are flat out mistaken. Also keep in mind you like you cherrypick your evidence. It got ported to Nintendo systems unlike the other games you mentioned. Also, Steve is the fourth lowest character in Want so far. Outside of the joke characters he is second. Finally, Steve’s day ended two days ago. Further discussion of Steve from anyone will result in their scores and nominations being ignored for the day.

Finally, I have seen how some people were upset that joke characters were chosen over actual ideas. There were two reasons for this. First is aside from Corrin I did not think any of the higher nominated ideas would be at E3. No hate on Wonder Red but he doesn’t scream e3 reveal to me. Second of all I did this because it is fun when these characters are rated alongside a real choice. The reason Blue Bowsers day was so bland was it was a double day. Finally, I did this because I wanted to. I also did not want to go through and boost ideas or concepts that I thought would be interesting to discuss again like a rerate of the gen 7 mons or K. Rool or pushing Eevee up to the top. They weren’t nommed enough I had to let it be.
I have to say I'm not terribly fond of being unable to talk about the final scores of certain predictions. I get that it causes the conversation to derail, but it can lead to some interesting conversations, especially when some of us can't make it to every single one of these days.

And some less interesting ones, but that's the sacrifice we must make in these kinds of discussions XP
 
Last edited:
Joined
Jul 29, 2014
Messages
890
Location
Duwang
Switch FC
SW 6027 0894 6117
Which has absolutely nothing to do with Nintendo.

Who have a relationship to Nintendo.
What do you mean with all this? When did Sakurai mention how a third-party character has to have a "good relationship with Nintendo" because I wouldn't say :4cloud:really fits that bill with only having minor appearances on Nintendo systems.

All he said on third parties were:

1 It's not gonna be everyone. (likely meaning he'll choose the more well known characters, Bayo being an exception by winning the ballot)

2 Both companies must want the character. (If Microsoft is okay with B&K they're likely also okay with Steve)

3 The character must carry game history. (Steve definitely has this)

Also how does Minecraft have nothing to do with Nintendo? It's on the three most current Nintendo systems and got an official Mario pack tied with it. Has to account for something, right?

Steve is a well known videogame character, appeared on Nintendo systems and his game carries game history, thus he's fair game.

Not taking this discussion further as it's getting off-topic.
Edit: TCT~Phantom TCT~Phantom I seem to have posted this before reading your post. Does my post count as off-topic?
 
Last edited:

Idon

Smash Legend
Joined
May 24, 2018
Messages
14,787
Location
Amala Network
NNID
Demi-fiend
Switch FC
King of Chaos
Dohvahkiin
Chance: 10%
He's a 3rd party character from a game that was multiplat that originally released in 2011 in a gritty low-fantasy franchise, with the only Nintendo link being a port made half a decade later. I find it unlikely despite the game's sales.
Want: 0%
I actively dislike Skyrim, and were I to stay and list off all the reasons why I would spiral away from the point. I'll just say this; he has nothing interesting as a character outside of his shout.

If, and only if, we were to get a Bethesda representative, I would prefer it to be Doomguy

Nominate: a SMT protagonist x5
 
Last edited:

Indefinite Minimum

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Jan 22, 2015
Messages
468
Dohvahkiin the Skyrim

Chance: 5%
He won't be able to fight cuz he's got an arrow in da knee xDDDDDDDD

Want: 100%
DOVAHKIIN DOVAHKIIN NAAL OK ZIN LOS VAHRIIN XDDDDDD

Nominations:
Dragonite x5
 

Sid-cada

Smash Lord
Joined
Jan 19, 2013
Messages
1,474
Skyrim Representation

Chance - 2.5% - Skyrim is a big game, but did it get through in time? I'm not certain, though I have a hunch it was too late. For sure, though, a simple trophy wouldn't be hard to get. That, and we typically don't get third party anything that isn't already represented, so that makes me skeptical.

Want - 50% - Completely nuetral. I don't have strong feelings for it.


Final Destination V2

Chance - 70% - Should be an easy port. That said, songs are kinda hit or miss. It was a main theme of a prior game, so that bosts it, but there simply may be too many.

Want - 65% - A decent track, but not one that I'm pining for. I can live without it.


Predictions

Lara Croft - 13.42% - I have no clue...

Bubsy - 0.94% - Why are we ratting him?


Nominaitons

Masked Dedede Final Smash X5
 
Joined
Dec 23, 2012
Messages
2,833
Location
France
3DS FC
1848-2225-1295
NNID
FinalSmashGamer
Switch FC
SW-1567-9471-9502
Skyrim representation

Chance: 20%
Want: abstain

Skyrim was and still is a huuuuuuuuge thing in gaming as a whole, and its release on the Switch has been quite noteworthy.
Can't say much on it tho as I've yet to play it.

Final Destination Ver. 2

Chance: 95%
Want: 100%

Damn yeah boy.


Noms:
Female announcer x5

Lara Croft prediction: 9.02%
Cranky Kong prediction: 12.74%
 

Erureido

Smash Hero
Joined
Sep 4, 2014
Messages
5,105
3DS FC
5301-1552-4121
NNID
Erureido
Switch FC
SW-4754-8756-2004
Not too familiar with Skyrim enough to give a proper rating, so I'm double abstaining from the first concept. I'm jumping straight to the second one.

Final Destination V2

Chance: 95%

Smash does tend to import most of its tracks from the previous game to the next installment, and the main themes of past games are usually among the lucky ones, so I'm guessing this one will be included too.

Want: 100%

Heck yeah I want it back! This track sounds like it came straight out of BlazBlue, and being a major fan of that video game series' music, I'd love to see this particular track come back.

------

Predictions

Lara Croft (Tombraider): 15.38%

Iconic, but Square Enix can be stingy.

Bubsy (Bubsy): 0.69%

"What can possibly go wrong?"

A lot.

------

Nominations

Corrin (Fire Emblem): x5
 
Joined
Mar 30, 2018
Messages
562
Skyrim Rep
Chance - 10%
3rd parties are always a uphill battle. It could happen, but I'm not really seeing it myself.
Want - 20%
I have no personal attachment, but I'm not against it either.

Final Destination V2
Chance - 70%
Music should be an easy copy and paste. It's possible he'd rather have new music instead of reusing the old, but there seems to be a mix of new and old anyways.
Want - 55%
While I enjoy music, I do usually look at it as the icing on the cake that can be switched out for other flavors or reused with different cake mixes. So I'm not too worried about it coming back or not, but it was good for what it is.

Nominations - 5x Monster Hunter Rep
 

FamicomDisk

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Mar 17, 2018
Messages
355
Skyrim

Chance: 5%
I don't think Skyrim representation is likely. I know this suggestion encompasses anything Skyrim - a character, a stage, a trophy, anything - but I don't see it happening. This seems like another case where a game gets a port onto a Nintendo console, and then the support starts flowing. I don't know, but to me a port doesn't really indicate much at all. A trophy could happen MAYBE, but I don't think that's likely, and I definitely don't think it'll get more than that.

Want: 0%
This is purely my opinion, of course, but I don't really want Skyrim representation, and I also think there are better third-party choices. At the same time, I'm sure other people would think that Skyrim is a much better choice than the third-party ones I think would be cool, and that's fine!

Final Destination V2

Chance: 95%
I don't see why they wouldn't! They usually bring back songs from previous games in Smash, so I can't see why that wouldn't be the case here!

Want: 80%
Don't have any particular attachment to the song, but it's catchy! I like itl, so I'd like to see it back! Final Destination will no doubt get its own new themes in the game, but this one can be kept as one of the stage's songs!

-----

Lara Croft chance prediction: 11.38%

Bubsy chance prediction: 2.16%
 
Joined
Jul 27, 2014
Messages
1,626
Location
France
Skyrim representation chances: 15%
I don't know how much of a big deal Skyrim is in Japan, but if they're like many other western third-parties (famous worldwide except in Japan) then it might affect that concept's chances. Anyway, Skyrim is a very successful game and I could imagine it having the caliber of being Smash worthy based on its fame. It could be either playable Dovahkiin or just a Rayman-like thing like just a music, but I think it would be fairly surprising to see Bethesda being contacted only for some pieces of music, and I don't really imagine Bethesda contacting Sakurai (which is what I believe happened for Rayman).

Although Skyrim is an iconic game, I prefer to play it safe for third-parties and individually give them low scores, while knowing that their cumulated low scores eventually makes it very likely that at least one will actually make it in. The uncertainty is like that: third-party newcomers are likely, but who?

Skyrim representation want: 45%
I know how famous Skyrim is but I haven't played it nor am I considering playing it, although I know some players of it and I guess they'd be please to see Skyrim represented in some capacity. A few pieces of music or trophies would probably be low impact on the game overall, but I'm not sure about how I'd feel if they went as far as making Dovahkiin playable.

Abstaining for rating the piece of music. I feel like I'd need to listen to re-listen it to rate it, but I'm currently in a situation where it's not practical to watch YouTube videos.

Lara Croft prediction: 22.89%
Bubsy prediction: 0.00%

What could possibly go wrong? Precisely someone giving a chance score high enough so Bubsy's final score tells us he's somehow remotely possible and preventing me from getting the extra noms necessary to save my concept from being purged before E3.

Nominating:
Concept: Battlefield form stages x5
 

Kitty-chan

Happy Pyromaniac Neko
Joined
Aug 8, 2015
Messages
201
Location
Buried 10 feet under nya
3DS FC
1203-9800-8781
Skyrim

Chance: 10%
3rd party and is nyalso on every big console, pumping out a nyu edition every year nya.:nifty: I think it has a fair shot, but competes with other 3rd party games and I don't think Skyrim is that requested for smash nyaaaaa~

Want: 25%
I haven't played Skyrim and it's nyot particularly high on my to play list, so I'm currently indifferent to the idea of Skyrim nyapearing in smash nya. Could be fun I'm sure, but I don't nyo nya~


Final Destination V2

Chance: 85%
An easy add on (I think) and pretty decent mew. Only chance of it nyot nyappearing is if the devs just don't wanya add it in for whatever reason nya~ Maybe it competes with Final Destination V1 nya?:nifty:But then comes the question, "Why nyot both?"

Want: 75%
It's fine, nyot my favorite track, but it's fine nya. I hate cuts. Music included, so bonus points nya!

Nyominations
Eevee: x5

And holy fudge we're only one week nyaway from the smash reveals nya!
 
Last edited:
Joined
Aug 12, 2015
Messages
1,102
Location
The Other Side Of The Computer Screen
3DS FC
0731-5017-6481
NNID
GamerGuy758
Switch FC
SW 1185 9411 4529
Skyman

Chance- 15%
Bethesda has been pretty buddy-buddy with Nintendo for a few years, but is it enough? If we do get anything Bethesda, we will get something at least. Games like Tekken and Virtua Fighter got mii costumes, and Rayman got a trophy, so Skyrim can get stuff even without a character.

Want- 20%
I havent played too much TES, but I would understand the hype. I'd aks more for Doom getting stuff in Smash, if were talking Bethesda.

Final Destination 2

Chance- 99%
Going off of past Smash games, the main theme will be remixed 20 times, so another take of Final Destination song should be present.

Want- 100%
Yeah, sure, why not. More content is almost always good.

Lara- 24.52%
Bubsy-3.12%

Scorpion X 4
Thwomp X 1
 

Koopaul

Smash Lord
Joined
Oct 29, 2013
Messages
1,722
Skyrim representation of any kind

Chance: 80%
Yeah I'm pretty confident that it will get a trophy like Rayman and Commander Video did. It seems like Nintendo is in a better relationship with their 3rd parties than ever before. So I think we'll be seeing a lot of 3rd party trophies. However, the chance of a playable character would be at 0.5%.
Want: 1%
I could really care less.

Predictions for Lara Croft
Chance: 15%
Want: 30%

Nominations
Barbara ×3
Dr. Wright ×2
 
Last edited:
Joined
Jul 14, 2014
Messages
1,330
Abstaining on Skyrim

FDV2
Chance: 90%
Want: 90%
Uh, sure? It's a cool song and it will probably stay. I really don't know how much there is supposed to be to say about this.

Nominate Fire Emblem Switch Protagonist x5
 

Lord-Zero

Smash Lord
Joined
Aug 2, 2015
Messages
1,740
Skyrim

Chance & Want: Abstain

- I know too little of Skyrim to provide a proper rating.

Final Destination 2

Chance: 80%

- It’s most likely coming back.

Want: 50%

- I’m fine with it but I wouldn’t miss it either.

Predictions

Lara Croft: 21.5%
Bubsy: 1%

Nominations

Katrielle Layton (Professor Layton) x3
Neptune (Neptunia Series) x2
 

Icedragonadam

Smash Master
Joined
Jul 16, 2014
Messages
3,066
3DS FC
0189-8502-2597
NNID
WitchofKnowledge
Switch FC
SW-5227-6397-6112
Abstaining on both.

Lara Prediction: 18.77%
Bubsy: 0.33%

Nominate Lloyd Irving x5
 
Joined
Mar 8, 2018
Messages
505
Skyrim Rep.

Chance 5%: Don't see it happening.

Want 5%: Doesn't really have a strong connection to Nintendo.

Final Destination V2:

Chance 90%: At for some version of Final Destination.

Want 90%: I've always loved Final Destination as a stage.

Nomination:
Pokemon Trainer (Gen 2) 5x
 

Arcanir

An old friend evolved
Joined
Jul 8, 2013
Messages
5,423
Location
Getting geared up for the 20th
3DS FC
4253-4855-5860
NNID
Shoryu91
Skyrim Representation

Chance: 10%
There is no doubting that Skyrim is a highly successful and influential game. It's been ported multiple times over, it's gotten millions of units sold across its history, and it's inspired many games to pursue the open-world genre and gameplay, such as BotW. It even has some popularity in Japan unlike a number of western third parties, so it doesn't run the risk of being an unknown to its audience. With that said, I don't think Sakurai would've given it that much thought at the time as there's no reason to believe that he was made aware of future versions of the game or that Bethesda will push for representation of it, so there's also a chance it could be overlooked.

Want: 70%
Having played Skyrim recently, I'd be up for it getting something like a trophy or music.

Final Destination v2

Chance: 80%
The last game had a number of Final Destination's tracks return, so I wouldn't be surprised to see this one follow suit for the Switch version.

Want: 70%
I wouldn't mind seeing it return.

Nomination: Monster Hunter Character x5
 
Joined
Apr 10, 2015
Messages
1,722
Skyrim stuff
Chance: 40%
I could see a trophy happening since Nintendo items appeared in Skyrim

Want: 0%
I hate Western RPGs with a passion

double abstain from the music

noms Ray x5
 

TCT~Phantom

Smash Champion
Joined
Dec 10, 2013
Messages
2,280
NNID
TCT~Phantom
Skyrim Representation

18.65% Chance
36.10% Want


Seems people do recognize the possibility of some for of representation, but there is a mist of skepticism mixed with disinterest.

Final Destination V 2

83.87% Chance
81.21% Want


Pretty unobjectionable by the community. It is music.

ProfPeanut ProfPeanut gets noms for FDV2, Mr. Nintendo Mr. Nintendo gets noms for Skyrim representation. Also from the other day, Since i was late to give you all your scores, DaUsername DaUsername gets 10 noms for Pyra/Mythra, wildvine47 wildvine47 gets 10 noms for Excitebiker, and Aetheri Aetheri gets 10 noms for Steve.

Today we got two of Industry icons. In one corner we have an icon of the Playstation, the most iconic female protagonist in gaming aside from maybe Samus, and one of the most iconic video game characters of all time, Lara Croft. On the other hand we have one of the most infamous gaming characters of all time, known for games that were dumpster tier, Bubsy the Bobcat, rate them in chance and want. Also predict the scores for Cranky Kong and Brash the Bear.


Soon, I will create the seven deadly sins of Smash RTC...
 
D

Deleted member

Guest
Lara Croft

Chance: 2%

While she's arguably one of gaming's biggest icons not currently playable in Smash (in the west, anyway), I have a feeling we'd get someone else if Square were to have second character. And that's a big IF considering the limited content that accompanied Cloud in Smash 4.

Want: 50%

Don't care either way.

Bubsy

Chance: 0%

He's closer to nonexistent in Japan than Spyro is, and I nearly gave the latter a zero. And I doubt anyone unironically supports him.

Want: 0%

What could possibly go wrong? Wasted development time on a panned platforming mascot that should've stayed dead.

Nomination: Bayonetta x5
 

DNeon

Smash Ace
Joined
Feb 24, 2015
Messages
986
Location
Brisbane, Australia
NNID
D_Neon_Lamp
Lara Croft

Chance: 13%

Definitely possible but not tooo likely. She's got a history with Nintendo but since the remake has been a Microsoft 'limited exclusive'. With Square already being on board with Smash before I don't doubt they'd let her be involved but she's competing with more FF reps, a Dragon Quest rep and even Kingdom Hearts (which I guess is kinda FF).

Want: 100%

One of the strongest female characters in gaming history, though she doesn't have a hell of a unique fighting style I think she could bring some interesting platforming/recovery tools, like using her ice axes, or a grappling hook.

Bubsy

Chance: 1%

He exists...

Want: 0%

...I didn't really remember that until now

Cranky Kong Prediction: 8.34%

Brash the Bear Prediction: 0.13%

Nominations:
Master Chief x 5
 
Last edited:
Joined
Jul 14, 2014
Messages
1,330
Lara Croft
Chance: 20%
Existent, but not high. She's certainly got status, but not quite on the level of the other 3rd parties in Smash.

Want: 75%
Yeah, for sure. I'd love to see Lara get in, though preferably (and likely) with her reboot design.

Oh, right, abstain on Bubsy.

Nominate Fire Emblem Switch Protagonist x5
 
Last edited:
Joined
Mar 8, 2018
Messages
505
Lara Croft:

Chance 15%: I don't think she will be chosen. There are better choices for third party. It's not impossible but not likely.

Want 10%: I think other posters understand my view on any character that has a stronger connection to another company than Nintendo like Sony. In my mind mind even though she isn't owned buy Sony she still has much greater connection to Playstation. I felt the same way about Snake and Cloud.

Bubsy:

Chance 5%: He is a notoriously unpopular character from a series of unpopular games. His last game wasn't as bad (from what I heard) however, I don't think that would save him in order to get into Smash Bros.

Want 5%: I have no attachment to Bubsy and it would be unfair to characters that actually have the fan base support if Bubsy got in instead.

Nomination:

Pokemon Trainer (Gen 2) 5x
 
Joined
Aug 10, 2013
Messages
684
Location
(´・ω・`)
Lara Croft

Chance - 1%

She's iconic. That's about all she has going for her.

Her appearances on Nintendo consoles are very limited, doesn't have much of a name in Japan (despite her immense western popularity), Sakurai's seemingly never shown any interest, and she faces competition from other possible Square Enix characters.

In terms of Square Enix, I think it would sooner be a Dragon Quest character or Geno. Hell, even if I'm going back on my word from a few weeks ago, maybe even Sora, considering how Disney doesn't seem to be as against it as I thought they were, to the point where I don't think they would be against it at all. But that's another plate of cookies for another glass of milk.

Want - 50%

Normally when it comes to 3rd parties in Smash, I'd like them to come from a franchise with at least some ties to Nintendo platforms. However, we're talking about Lara Croft, one of the most iconic video game characters of all time, and the most iconic video game female of all time. I can make an exception.

She's not a character I'm rooting for, but she's earned her place. I don't think I would be against her inclusion.

Bubsy

Chance - 0%

Bubsy is Bubsy. The only reason we're talking about him right now is because he's a meme.

Want - 0%
Everything, Bubsy. Everything could go wrong.

Nominations:
[Concept] Battlefield Form Stages x5 (if it isn't too late to change noms)
 
Last edited:

TheDukeofDorks

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Mar 9, 2018
Messages
193
Lara Croft

Chance: 5%

Lara faces way too much competition from within Square Enix's library of characters to have much of a shot at this game. She's iconic, yes, extremely so, but she has to compete with Dragon Quest, other Final Fantasy characters, apparently even Geno!

Still more likely than Sora though :p

Want: Abstain

I played Tomb Raider for a grand whopping total of 5 minutes, I have no connections to the series.

Bubsy

Chance: 0%

No. When your mediocrity is your only claim to fame, you are not going to make your way onto the Smash roster.

Want: 0%

I get the desire to see off the wall, joke characters in Smash, but... come on. It's Bubsy.
 
Joined
Jul 29, 2014
Messages
890
Location
Duwang
Switch FC
SW 6027 0894 6117
Lara Croft

Chance: 5%

Simply has too much competition, and might not be that well known in Japan.

Want: ABSTAIN

Bubsy

Chance: 0%
To start, Sakurai doesn't really add ''joke characters'' to the roster. :4wiifit:got in because Wii fit sold a crap-ton of copies and :4duckhunt:is an iconic retro character. Besides that, he carries no unironic game history, has almost no support and his recent 2017 game isn't on Switch and was negatively received. Also I don't even think Sakurai knows who he even is.

Want: 0%

Would literally be a waste of a slot.

Cranky kong: 15.26% (If Funky can get above a 10% so should Cranky)
Brash the Bear: 0.14%

Leon Kennedy x5
 
Joined
Feb 8, 2014
Messages
4,259
Location
Australia
Double 0 for bubsy and I shouldn't have to explain

Now for the one I've been waiting for. I'm glad we got to her before E3. Even though it seems the third party character has already been decided on.

LARA CROFT

let me start by saying that I've never actually played Tomb Raider. My connection to the series is limited to the movies. But I do want to play her games. I nominated her because of how iconic she is. After watching her most recent movie, I realized just how big an impact she would have.

But first let's move on to her cons

"Very little connection to Nintendo"
This is definitely not needed or necessary, I can understand why this would affect the want score, but for chance. We already have Cloud and Snake who both have little connection to Nintendo. She still has games on Nintendo systems so it's not like she's exclusive to other systems like Master Cheif or Kratos

"She's not popular in Japan"
This is her biggest con, but perhaps not as Big as you think. Her games still do well enough to chart Media Create week despite the state of the home console market in Japan. In fact Rise of the Tomb Raider was only beaten by Monster Hunter Stories and stayed in the top ten in the next week
https://nintendoeverything.com/media-create-sales-101716-102316/



"Guns"
Yes her most iconic weapons are her dual pistols but they're not necessary. Her recent games have basically dropped them in focus of the bow and climbing axe. And even then, it probably wouldn't take much to stylize them a bit. Bayonetta got away with it, and Snake got in without guns.

"Competition"
Third party spots are limited, she faces a lot of competition. But she has her own pros to put her above a fair few of her competition.


Now for Pros.

"She's owned by Square Enix"
Square Enix already has shown that are willing to cooperate with Smash, and while Cloud didn't get much, neither did Ryu so it was likely just a consequence of being DLC, and Bayonetta just got Special treatment for being the ballot winner and just being the last in general. Lara Croft is the most logical choice for a second Square character. She's a bigger name than all her competitions. Dragon Quest doesn't have a stand out character, Sora has too much connection to non video game content and Geno shouldnt even be a consideration


"She's one of the most iconic characters not in Smash"
If not she's THE most iconic character not in Smash. She has 3 movies to her name and was even played by Angelina Jolie and proved video game movies could be successful. She holds three Guinness World Records to her name and Tomb Raider helped pioneer the action adventure genre. She's a very iconic character from a very successful franchise. Even if her eastern appeal is a bit limited, her western impact is so great it should not be ignored

"She appeals to a wide audience"
This ties to her Iconic status. But she's loved by "casual" audience thanks to her wide media presence, she appeals to "hardcore" audience thanks to her more serious games and appearance and positive promotion or media with great promotion of equal opportunity with another strong female protagonist. This is probably less important overall and I find it difficult to explain without accidentally offending someone. But it would be great to have another female role model on the roster. And this did seem to impact the last roster.

Chance 30%
She's still third party and faces tough competition from more classic characters like Bomberman and Simon. I think she's more likely as DLC. But I definitely consider her an inevitable, maybe not in this Smash, but one day.

Want 80%
She's probably my most wanted third party nowadays, well that I consider reasonable anyway, I've pretty much given up on Banjo.

And extra nominations!
If allowed, I'd like to grant a nomination to anyone who nominated Lara Croft and helped me rise her to the top before E3. All unclaimed noms to go to Parabo and Satebo. (or just Parabo and Satebo x10 if it makes things too difficult)

Prediction

Cranky 7%
The bear 0.05%
 
Joined
Jan 23, 2010
Messages
619
Location
Princeton, NJ
NNID
Runic_SSB
Lara Croft

Chance: 5%
Tomb Raider has little connection to Nintendo, with only 3 Game Boy exclusives (the last of which was poorly received), 3 multi-plats (the first of which was a last-minute port by a 3rd party and the last of which was a buggy mess), and nothing in the past decade. Furthermore, Sakurai has always been very strict about not having realistic guns, which greatly hampers her moveset potential. I mean, I guess she could have a gunless moveset, but I imagine Sakurai would have a much harder time envisioning her as a fighter.

Want: 10%
I don't really care about the series.

Bubsy

Chance: 0%
He's only had two Nintendo games, neither of which were exclusive. Also he's almost universally reviled.

Want: 50%
He'd be the ultimate joke character.

Cranky Kong prediction: 20%

Brash the Bear prediction: 2%

Nominations:
Viewtiful Joe x5


"Very little connection to Nintendo"
This is definitely not needed or necessary, I can understand why this would affect the want score, but for chance. We already have Cloud and Snake who both have little connection to Nintendo.
Snake is an outlier because he was added through pure nepotism, and Cloud is representing the entire FF series, which does have a strong connection with Nintendo.
 
Last edited:
Joined
Feb 8, 2014
Messages
4,259
Location
Australia
Lara Croft

Chance: 0%
Tomb Raider has nothing to do with Nintendo. Furthermore, Sakurai has always been very strict about not having realistic guns, which greatly hampers her moveset potential. I mean, I guess she could have a gunless moveset, but I imagine Sakurai would have a much harder time envisioning her as a fighter.

Want: 10%
I don't really care about the series.

Bubsy

Chance: 0%
He's only had two Nintendo games, neither of which were exclusive. Also he's almost universally reviled.

Want: 50%
He'd be the ultimate joke character.

Cranky Kong prediction: 20%

Brash the Bear prediction: 2%

Nominations:
Viewtiful Joe x5



Snake is an outlier because he was added through pure nepotism, and Cloud is representing the entire FF series, which does have a strong connection with Nintendo.
Cloud is representing Final Fantasy 7 and only Final Fantasy 7. His franchise is even listed as "Final Fantasy 7" in the trophy section.
 
Joined
Feb 8, 2014
Messages
4,259
Location
Australia
That doesn't change that within the game itself we only have content from Final Fantasy 7 and the franchise is even listed specifically as Final Fantasy 7. That tells me it's specifically Final Fantasy 7.
 

CaptainAmerica

Smash Champion
Joined
Aug 21, 2014
Messages
2,830
Location
New York
First Lady of Gaming

Chance: 10%
Want: 25%

Lara's definitely important as a character, nobody can deny that.

It'd be easy enough to consider a moveset for her. However, she might end up having a significant overlap with Samus (specifically ZSS) in how Smash would end up portraying her. Plus, see all standard arguments about third parties. I'm tired and don't really feel like reiterating them again.

I would feel about her the same as I feel about Ryu - a character who I have zero connection to but recognize their importance. Still, no great desire to see her though.

Prediction for Cranky: 9.2%
Nom: Transformations x5
 

FamicomDisk

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Mar 17, 2018
Messages
355
Lara Croft

Chance: 5%
She used to be popular, but nowadays she doesn't feel like much of an icon at all, and I don't really see much discussion about Tomb Raider or Lara anymore. She also never really caught on in Japan like she did in English-speaking countries, and that's a detriment to her chances. It's also important to remember that she's owned by Square Enix now - this means that she competes with characters like Geno, who Sakurai has said he wanted to add since Brawl, a Dragon Quest character, a series which is massive in Japan, and others. I can't see her winning in that competition - if Smash gets another Square Enix character, I think it'll be Geno.

Want: 5%
I'd prefer Geno and a Dragon Quest character to her. However, lots of people really like her games - especially the older ones - and she was once popular, so it would be sort of neat to see her. Don't want her myself, but would be cool for those who do!

Bubsy

Chance: 0%
Not only is Bubsy only infamous because of how bad his games are, but he had a grand total of four games before disappearing completely for 11 years. What an amazing series, huh? All of his games were developed outside of Japan as well, and Sakurai has said he prefers working with Japanese developers for a few reasons. And then beyond that, only one of his games - that being the very first one - has been released in Japan, and that was way back in 1994, but every third party character so far has had some popularity worldwide. There's really nothing in his favor.

Want: 0%
Even among the picks that people say as a joke, there are better picks than Bubsy. His games are bad, and that's why people know him - that's not a reason to include a character in Smash.

-----

Cranky Kong chance prediction: 12.56%
Brash the Bear chance prediction: 3.16%


Nomination:
DeMille x5
 
Last edited:

Aetheri

W/E happens don't panic...
Joined
Jan 13, 2015
Messages
7,169
Location
Phaaze
Switch FC
SW-3397-5428-2304
Of course...I get extra nominations when I'm about to leave the game...lmao


Lara Croft

Chance: 30%
I see a lot of people aren't giving her enough credit. Consider for a second how big the Tomb Raider franchise really is. It is frikkin HUGE, especially back in the 90's. It also features probably the only character that can take the title of greatest female protagonist from Nintendo's own Samus Aran. And this was before she garnered the huge casual exposure with Angelina Jolie's role in the movies. Having a lot of recognizability is a big point in her favour since even the most casual of Smash fans will likely know who she is. Another huge point in her favour is being owned by Square Enix. The company has contributed content to Smash before thanks to Cloud's inclusion (a character with even less to do with Nintendo than Lara Croft, who's appeared in plenty of games on Nintendo consoles btw).

While the base game is a lot less likely, I feel like she'd be a prime candidate for DLC considering her overall notoriety.

The only thing that could get in her way, imo, is her moveset potential. Her most iconic weaponry is the dual pistols, realistic dual pistols I might add. I do think there can be a work around, however that could be detrimental to her character since she is very well known for these weapons. There's also the fact that as far as her abilities go she's still more or less just a very athletic human. However I do think that similarly to a lighter and faster version of Snake she could act as more of a utility character using various weapons and traps that are featured in her game. Also we have characters such as Fox, Falcon, Sheik and ZSS who got their movesets pretty much out of thin air so coming up with an appropriate moveset for Lara Croft is by no means inconceivable.

Want: 95%
IT'S LARA ****ING CROFT!! But seriously, the archaeologist is, as many people have stated, arguably the most iconic video game character who's not yet featured in Smash, and I think her reputation alone is enough for her to deserve a spot amoung Nintendo's finest. Hell, just the idea of Lara Croft and Samus appearing in the same game is pretty damn appealing to me and is just a testament to how big of a deal Smash is when it comes to gaming icons.

I also do very much enjoy her character and when I do get around to playing her games I do very much enjoy them. I did somewhat enjoy Jolie's movies even though their not my most favourite movies ever, haven't gotten around to watching the latest one yet. I heard it did well but I'd rather watch it for myself first.

----

Bubsy
Chance: 1%
Well this is a bit of a downgrade compared to the last character I just talked about.

Want: 0%
Yeah, no thanks.

----

Since I have ten nominations might as well put them to use.

Concept: Indie Character x10
 

Quetzal77

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Sep 6, 2014
Messages
300
3DS FC
1349-4940-0147
NNID
yomugo
Lara
Chance: 20%
She's iconic, she'd be unique, she's popular... but she directly competes with FF representation. She may be a second pick for Square newcomer, but unfortunately for Lara FF and DQ characters are much more likely.

Want: 50%
I feel she definitely deserves to have a go, but I have no attachment to the Tomb Raider series so I wouldn't be upset if she doesn't.

Bubsy
Chance: 0%
As far as memes go, I'd imagine Sakurai would add himself in before Bubsy.

Want: 0%
Much rather have Sakurai as a meme rep.

Cranky: 11.11%
Brash: 2.5%

Nominations: Neku x5
 
Joined
Jun 25, 2014
Messages
830
Location
Hunting Down Ever Amiibo
NNID
KyleWussler
lara croft
chance
well she is iconic and fits the bill for a icon in the genre. But the issue would be that she hasn't really been on nintendo she could be a cloud situation but even that is a long shot
15%
want
would be cool to have her in. She would also have a fun moveset but I want other 3rd parties more.
50%

bubsy
chance
he did get a recent revival but thats it. He would be a fun joke charcter but again lacks what needs to be a 3rd party pick.
2%

want
would want him just to see the reaction. I also would want him way more than Steve so if I had my choice I would take him over steve in a heartbeat
25%

Prediciting
cranky kong at 8%
brash the bear at 3%

nominating labo guy x5
 
Top