Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[BluePikmin11]

In terms of positives going for Bomberman, he definitely has high ballot demand, game history, and having immense distinctness/gameplay potential with utilization of bombs. All of these benefit Bomberman, all except Konami. With Kojima’s harsh treatment from the company, I feel that will greatly affect Sakurai’s POV on Konami, with him avoiding negotiation with them for the long term.

Even if by chance Sakurai is willing to get past Konami, I do not think Bomberman will be the second Konami character chosen. That choice will definitely be Simon Belmont, based on Sakurai’s notable history with the Castlevania franchise. I feel Sakurai will be content on Konami representation with just Simon/Snake and nothing beyond that. As cool as Bomberman would be to have, I feel Konami/Simon alone make him becoming a fighter for Smash almost an impossibility to me.

x5 Tom Nook

 

[Deleted member]

Bomberman

Chance: 1%

There's the iffy state of Konami in the past few years, Snake's still mysteriously absent, and I'm apparently expected to believe Bomberman has a decent chance because of one game that might've came a bit too late. If Konami did get a second character, sure, it could be him. But with all he currently has going against him, it honestly baffles me how he's considered a safe bet by some. (Then again, I also have a hard time calling any potential third party newcomer a safe bet.)

Want: 55%

I don't have as much of a connection to the White Bomber as I do with Snake or Belmont, but I'd be okay with him.

Nomination: Spyro x5

 

[Ze Diglett]

Bomb R. Man
Chance: 20%
Super Bomberman R certainly bolstered his chances by a bit, for DLC at least if not the base roster, and that game initially being Switch-exclusive bodes well for Nintendo's acceptance of the franchise. He's certainly iconic enough, anyway. I'd be willing to call him the second most likely third-party newcomer (unless Geno counts), right after Rayman. I don't really see why him being a Konami property would rule him out, considering they've already had a character in Smash and Snake leaving was most likely a special case, what with the whole Kojima debacle.

Want: 50%
I haven't touched a Bomberman game in my life, but I like his design and a character who fights with bombs sounds fun and unique. Sign me up!

Black Shadow Prediction: 3.4%
Marth & Roy English Voice Prediction: 2%

Nominating Tingle x5

 

[RouffWestie]

Bomberman

Chance: 72%

Konami still has some faith in his series, indicated when Super Bomberman R was announced as a launch title for the Switch. He's almost as iconic as the current third-parties on the roster. He definitely carries a long history – and on many Nintendo consoles no less. His inclusion depends on if Sakurai wants him and if Konami would push for him.

Want: 30%

I'm not excited for him, I've already seen him work two different ways in SSF2 and SSBC. I have played many Bomberman games at least.

Nominations: Lip x5

 

[Deleted member]

Gonna make this quick.
Chance: 5%
Konami/10

Want: 55%
Never played the series, but I plan on doing so and Bomberman would fit in pretty well.

Mimikyu x5

 

[NintenRob]

Bomberman
Chance 30%
His biggest obstacle is Konami and competition from Snake and Simon. Is it possible for him to get in before or alongside these characters ?
Want 70%
He's cool

Predictions
English Marth Roy 32%
Black shadow 9%

Nominate Parabo and Satebo x5

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Bomberman:

Chance: 35% - In my opinion Bomberman is the joint likeliest 3rd party to make it into this game, along with Rayman. He's got potential for a unique fighting style (bombs), he's got a long and successful video game history, and perhaps most importantly his games actually have a significant presence in Japan, which gives him an edge over a lot of the other likely 3rd party characters. Only issue is Konami, I'm sure they'd love to have him in, but I'm less sure of Sakurai wanting to deal with them.

Want: 50% - I played a few of his games during my childhood and enjoyed them a fair bit, but I think it had more to do with the gameplay, as a character Bomberman has always just been alright. Would be a decent 3rd party addition, there are worse options, but also better ones.

 

[Cycrum]

Bomberman

Chance: 20%
Bomberman was hardly seen much in the realm of gaming for the past several years until Super Bomberman R, which was released after the project plan was likely finalized. However, he is still an iconic character in gaming, although not at the same caliber as Mega Man, Pac-Man, or Cloud. He also has the potential to be a very unique character using bombs as his primary method of combat. However, he faces competition from both Snake and Simon Belmont as a Konami rep. There is still a chance that all three could be in the same game, albeit very low.

Want: 80%
Blowing people up is fun.

Predictions:
Black Shadow: 6.77%
Marth and Roy Speaking English: 27.55%

Nominations:
Steve (Minecraft) x5

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Bomberman

Chance: 5%
Want: 0%

Blah blah Konami blah blah Snake blah blah

All been said before. Never played a bomberman game so I'm not really impressed, and Link/Samus/Snake did also have the whole 'explosive moveset' covered too. Especially for that Melee event match when all the pokeballs had electrodes (can we get that match back?)

Prediction for Black Shadow: 5.43%
Prediction for English voices: 30.0%

Nom: Skyrim x5

 

[Quetzal77]

Bomberman
Chance: 25%
I don't think Snake is actually competition, and I'm not sure if Simon is, but I see him or Bomberman as the possible Konami reps. That said, I'm not even sure if a Konami rep is likely. Bomberman launched to great success on Switch so he's definitely current, he has a history of appearing on Nintendo consoles, and he's iconic.

Want: 50%
I love the old Bomberman games and he could be pretty fun! However, the third parties I actively want are few.

Black Shadow: 22.3%
Marth and Roy speak English: 55.55%

Nominations: Pyra/Mythra (without Rex) x5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Bomberman

Chance: 25%

I'm honestly not sure if Sakurai wants anything to do Konami after their poor treatment of Kojima. They're friends after all, so Sakurai might want to be loyal. I can't recall seeing anything Konami related in Smash 4.

If he doesn't actually hate the company however, then Bomberman's in a good spot. He doesn't really have to compete with Simon (I think Snake's gone for good) since third parties aren't limited to just one character anymore. Super Bomberman R definitely helps to.

Want: ABSTAIN

Predictions for Batman and Marth/Roy dub: 6.13% 8.44%

Nominations: Leon Kennedy x5

 

[Llort A. Ton]

Bomber Man

Chance- 40%
He has had a fair amount of demand since the Brawl days. I imagine he would be the next Mega Man, as in he may not be super iconic to non gamers, but he is VERY popular with the older Nintendo crowd. With Super Bomber Man R being a successful Switch launch title, odds are looking pretty good for Bomber Man, but there is always the elephant looming in Bomber Man's room, and that is Konami.

Konami content was obviously absent from Smash 4. One would say that's due to the whole Konami Kojima falling out of 2015, but many fail to remember... that was in 2015. The roster for 4 was chosen in 2012. Kojima was even advocating for Snake to return to Smash 4 in 2014, meaning him or Konami were likely not contacted by Nintendo for anything. Bomber Man also competes with Snake and Simon. Weve seen 2 characters from 1 company before, but not 3.

Now, the pieces are in place for these characters, especially Bomber Man. Fan demand, Nintendo would get goodwill for adding fan favorites, Konami would get goodwill and a nice paycheck for just signing a contract allowing their characters to be used, Nintendo and Konami have already collaborated this generation. The ball is in Sakurai's court, and even if he wanted Bomber Man he would likely consider Konami's reputation, his friend Kojima still loving Metal Gear (he is helping with the MGS movie and regularly retweets fan content) and massive demand for the veteran Snake returning. There are a lot of factors that make Bomber Man's inclusion complicated.

Want- 60%
I really liked Bomber Man on NES back in the day, and I think he would be a very fitting and fun inclusion (I may even try to main him!) but Snake is a much higher priority for me, so if Bomber Man gets in without Snake it'll be a little bittersweet.

Black Shadow- 7.32%

English VA for Marth & Roy- 3.20%

Scorpion X 4
Thwomp X 1

 

[MrElectroG64]

Bomberman

Chance: 50%
I'd say he has some of the highest chances for a third party to get in.

Want: 10%
I'm not terribly familiar with his games, and have never really gotten into them, but he fits into smash a lot more than most of the 3rd parties we have already so why not, right?


Nominations: Louie x5

 

[Sid-cada]

Bomberman

Chance - 23.5% - Not certain how to think of him. Assuming Snake is off the table, he's probably next due to Castlevania being somewhat AWOL in terms of games. Still, Snake and his sudden departure makes me think it's going to be rough, and I'm not supper convinced he's in.

Want - 75% - He's a respectable third party in my eyes, and that's more than I can say for most.


Predicitons

Black Shadow - 4.24% - Face it, we're not having a move set transplant.

Engish VAs for Math/Roy - 35.35% - I dunno.


Nominaitions

Masked Dedede Final Smash X5

 

[Deleted member]

Bomberman

Chance/Want: Abstain

Nomination: T-Rex (Fossil Fighters) x5
I know they named it "T-Rex Sue" in Frontier but whatever.

 

[Opossum]

Bomberman

Chance: 2%
I honestly think being Konami owned hampers his odds, but he's not impossible.

Want: 0%
No attachment at all, and if we're talking to Konami in the first place, I'd prefer Snake back. Not to mention Simon or Frogger.

Predicting a 43 for English Marth and Roy
ALSO TCT~Phantom , could we do two separate ratings for Marth and Roy, just so one's odds doesn't affect the other? Like, people predicting low scores because they don't think Roy will return, or something.


Nominating K. Rool x5

 

[Koopaul]

Bomberman

Chance: 5%
With 3rd Parties it's always tricky. I think ultimately Sakurai chooses 3rd Parties based on how legendary the character is. So I'm rating his chances based on how legendary Bomberman is... Not that much.

Want: 10%
I'm not a fan of 3rd parties and want to keep them at a minimum. But if they have to be there I'd rather they be from games that have a strong bond or history with Nintendo. So I'd prefer Bomberman over Cloud any day. Cloud is 0% want for me.

Predictions for English Marth and Roy
Chance: 0.5%
Want: 2%

Nominations
Barbara ×3
Slime ×2

 

[Depressed Gengar]

Bomberman Chance: 5%
Konami's Konami and thus is... messed up, for the lack of a better word.

Want: 50%

Black Shadow Prediction: 5%
English Voice Actors Prediction: 35%

Nominations: Gengar X5

 

[Ura]

Bombs Away!

Chance: 20%

I think he has a decent shot at the roster. Well known in Japan and has considerable popularity in the West. However, he runs in to the Konami problem like Smash alumni Snake and that can seriously hurt his chances.

Want: 75%

Of the remaining 3rd parties left to include Bomberman is up there for me in terms of characters I want in the game. Although I want Crash, Banjo, and Snake a lot more than I do Bomberman.

Predictions

Black Shadow
Chance: 8%
Want: 35%

English VA for Marth/Roy
Chance: 25%
Want: 25%

Nominations

Masked Link X 3
Concept: Declond Ganondorf X 2

And since I missed the past two days of the RTC, I thought I would post quick thoughts about the ones I missed.

Impa

Is a mainstay in Zelda games even though her significance in most of them are minimal. Characters in this franchise tend to be tied in to the Link/Zelda/Ganondorf trio so I doubt her chances really. She does seem to be the most popular choice for a Zelda newcomer so there's that I guess.

Reused Character Artwork

We saw in the initial reveal trailer that Link is using his BoTW attire so there's a good chance most characters will have updated artwork.

 

[Arcanir]

Bomberman

Chance: 10%
This is a bit of a tough one. Bomberman, while not necessarily being a huge franchise like SF, has always been a beloved one as its history has spanned generations and has endeared many people towards it. It also recently got a revival with Super Bomberman R, which may mean he has recency on his side as well, though this is a bit of a double-edged sword since it could've came out a little too late to affect things. However, with the elephant in the room being Konami, there's always that possibility that there may be difficulty with negotiations this time around, which may prevent his inclusion. To add to that, we also have to consider Snake, whos a beloved veteran that many would want to return and may take precedence in consideration if Sakurai can't get both, and there's also Simon Belmont who's in a similar position and whose franchise has already caught Sakurai's eye in his history in gaming.

In short, Bomberman is a character who has the merits to be playable, but due to his circumstances may get overlooked. His new game could've came too late, and there's no knowing what's going on with Konami or even if they'll go with him over Snake or Simon. There's a number of factors that can easily hurt his inclusion, and unfortunately that may prevent the character from joining the roster.

Want: 65%
I would prefer Simon, but I do like Bomberman's games so I would be happy with him.

Nomination: Concept: Monster Hunter getting a character x5

 

[Parallel_Falchion]

Bomberman
Chance: 35%
Bomberman fits the Smash mold better than other potential Konami characters, which I feel makes him more notable to Smash players and more likely to be included as a result.

Want: 60%
Though they weren't my favorite, I played the games a lot as a kid, so there's some nostalgia value for me.

Nominate Fire Emblem Switch Protagonist x5

 

[wildvine47]

Bomberman

Chance: 18% - Konami's shadow really prevents me from giving the Blu-, er, White Bomber a higher score than this. If Sakurai does reach out to Konami for a character, I feel that as a veteran, Snake would take first priority, and that's already shaky enough as is. Then it'd be down to giving Konami a second character, and for that, Bomberman has the very very imposing figure of Simon Belmont to compete with. There's a lot of things that need to go in Bomberman's favor for this to work out, and I'm not too confident in the odds of them all falling into place. He does have Super Bomberman R giving him recency points, which normally would help him out, but the game being a timed exclusive that just went multi-plat might cancel out any goodwill it earned him.

Want: 55% - I've never played a Bomberman game and I have no real attachment to the character. If we're going to get three Konami characters, which is a massive stretch, I think he'd be the obvious choice for third, but otherwise I'd much rather see Snake and Simon (re)join the fray.

Predictions

Black Shadow: 9.21% - F-Zero's still very dead, and the only reason Black Shadow's still a common request is because of the moveset inheritance idea, something that's never once happened in Smash Bros. history.

English Marth and Roy: 4.56% - Ew, no thanks. The idea of these two speaking English just feels wrong to me. Maybe as a toggle, but I figure going the extra length to get these characters English VA's after so many games without them just wouldn't be worth the time.

Nominations

Scorpion x 5

 

[VexTheHex]

Bomberman
Ahh Bomberman, compared to many 3rd parties people bring up... actually has a resume of tons of games ranging across the generations and isn't some new shiny thing dangled in front of their eyes.
Chance - 35%
Seems like the 2nd Konami rep since Snake already has his foot there in 1st. Simon could also get in before him, but Bomberman has his newest game to stay relevant.
Want - 85%
I played plenty of Bomberman growing up. Not the biggest on 3rd parties, but he is one of those childhood characters that actually make me respect his addition.

Nominations - 5x Mimikyu

 

[Erureido]

Still not feeling in a mood for a rating, so I'll double abstain again.

------

Predictions

Marth and Roy get their English VAs: 34.55%

No comment.

------

Nominations

Corrin (Fire Emblem): x5

 

[Troykv]

Bomberman:

Chance: 22%

Not as iconic as other of the Third Parties in the game, but he definitely a character we should consider for his long story with Nintendo and Gaming in General

Want: 50%

He would be nice I guess.

_________________

Predictions:

Black Shadow: 7.5%
Marth/Roy English Voice Actors: 31.3%

Nominations:

Tom Nook x3
KOS-MOS x2

 

[Wyoming]

Bomberman

Chance: 1%

There's the iffy state of Konami in the past few years, Snake's still mysteriously absent, and I'm apparently expected to believe Bomberman has a decent chance because of one game that might've came a bit too late. If Konami did get a second character, sure, it could be him. But with all he currently has going against him, it honestly baffles me how he's considered a safe bet by some. (Then again, I also have a hard time calling any potential third party newcomer a safe bet.)

Want: 55%

I don't have as much of a connection to the White Bomber as I do with Snake or Belmont, but I'd be okay with him.

Nomination: Simon Belmont, whose chances aren't any better than Bomberman's x5

Belmont is already on the schedule

 

[Deleted member]

Belmont is already on the schedule

Okay then. I'll give 5 nominations to Spyro, I guess.

 

[Icedragonadam]

Bomberman

Chance: 35%

Want: 100%

He's an iconic character with a very good history with Nintendo. However there is one glaring obstacle. Konami and everyone knows their reputation right now. If he didn't have that he'd easily be in.

Black Shadow Prediction: 8.78%
Roy & Marth Dubbed: 37.88%

Nominate Lloyd Irving x5

 

[Troykv]

ok So I just got back from college, we fell behind my bad. We gonna do an double day for tomorrow to catch up.

Ganon
20% Chance
100% Want

Nominating Spyro x 5


Day over, please rate Bomberman in Chance and want and predict Black Shadow and Concept Marth and Roy speak English.

Oh and... Why we're rating two things tomorrow?

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Oh and... Why we're rating two things tomorrow?

We kind of lost a day with me moving out of my dorm.

 

[Opossum]

The idea of these two speaking English just feels wrong to me. Maybe as a toggle, but I figure going the extra length to get these characters English VA's after so many games without them just wouldn't be worth the time.

Just saying, Marth has had more games where he was given an English VA than there are Smash games where he's playable. Code Name: S.T.E.A.M., Fire Emblem Fates, Fire Emblem Heroes, and Fire Emblem Warriors, compared to just Melee, Brawl, and Smash 4.

But honestly I doubt it'd be as hard to get Yuri Lowenthal and Ray Chase (the English voices for Marth and Roy) into Smash as you make it seem.

 

[NeonBurrito]

Bomberman

Chance - 20%

Konami is a pain in the butt to work with, as evidenced by Smash 4. However, in the case that Konami is willing to work on Smash again (which doesn't seem super unlikely, considering their involvement with the Switch), he still has to face competition from Snake returning and Simon Belmont, another requested character with a strong relationship to Nintendo.

However, due to Super Bomberman R being a launch title for the Switch, being console exclusive for about a year, and also the Bomberman franchise not being somewhat of a stagnant spot (Castlevania, despite its Netflix series and its appearence on the NES / SNES mini) or currently being beaten to death (Metal Gear Solid), it wouldn't surprise me if Bomberman had a leg up on his Konami competition.

Want - 75%

He fits all the third party criteria for me. He's iconic, has an extremely long history with Nintendo, comes from a company with a long history with Nintendo, would fit in very well in Smash, all that good stuff.

I'd rather have Simon Belmont just a smidgen more for a Konami character, but Bomberman is probably one of the very few options for a third party character I'd actually be excited for. Konami is pretty much the last big company with any strong ties to Nintendo that isn't currently represented, unless I'm forgetting something.

Nominations:
Lloyd Irving x5

predict Black Shadow and Concept Marth and Roy speak English.

Heck yeah, double day. I was worried we'd be spending a whole day talking about voice actors.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Bomb Guy
Chance: 45%
Probably the most likely third party at this point. Super Bomberman R apparently sold pretty well and it being a launch title and initially exclusive speaks to corporate synergy. If Konami does sneak a rep in, it’ll be this guy, as he’s pretty much the only franchise they’re still pushing for and treating with respect.

Want: 100%
Absolute legend.

Black Shadow predictions: 8%
Abstain from the other

Nominations
Prince SableX5

 

[zipzapsparkle]

Bomberman

Chance 25%
Want 50%

Normally I’d rate him a little higher but it’s konami so i’ll dip a little lower. He is iconic and has been a frequent request so I think his chances are so-so.

x3 Tom Nook
x2 Arcade Bunny

 

[Troykv]

BTW, I'm rating the Marth/Roy voice as this possibility:

Marth and/or Roy English Voice Acting

Mostly to take in account the possibility of Roy don't appearing in Smash Switch.

 

[ShinyRegice]

No colors or long explanation today since I'm on mobile and just want to make sure I get something is posted before the end of the day. Might edit later if I have the time though. Edit: added colors.

Bomberman chances: 28%
I'm not confident on any third-party character in particular but he seems to be one of the most likely. As I said in a previous rating the cumulated low chances of individual third-parties make it unlikely to get none at all.

Bomberman want: 50%
One of the few characters for which I am completely indifferent one way or the other.

Marth/Roy English VA prediction: 22.90%
Edit: oh double day? So adding Black Shadow prediction: 7.56%

Nominating:
Playable newcomer: Mimikyu x3
Returning game mode: Smash Run x2

 

[Deleted member]

Bomberman

Chance: 20%
He had an okay revival on the Switch and some noticeable ties with Nintendo, but Konami.

Want: 50%
I haven't played to one of his games, and I can't honestly see how he'd fight besides dropping bombs behind him, but he'd fit like a glove in the Smash cast and thus I give him a pass.


Noms:
Music: Final Destination (Ver. 2) x5

Black Shadow prediction: 15.23%

Concept Marth and Roy speak English prediction: 48.57%

 

[TheFritzle]

Bomberman Chance:
35%
Bomberman R definitely boosted his chances up a lot. His long gaming history will also serve to his benefit. Bomberman is one of the last remaining realizable 3rd parties that have a lot of history with Nintendo. I don't think there is any problem is the character, but there might be some with Konami. After Snake getting cut, I'm hesitant to think Komani will get a new rep. But, if they really want a new Konami rep, just give them some money, and they'll happily hand over any of their beloved characters for a little bit of money.

Bomberman Want:
50%
I'd personally like to see Belmont or even Snake get in instead, but I'm not against his inclusion.

Black Shadow Prediction:
7.14%

Marth/Roy speaking English Prediction:
27.85%

Nominations:
Sylux x5

 

[Cycrum]

Belmont is already on the schedule

Schedule for the next week​

Bomberman 5/11
Black Shadow 5/12
Concept: Marth and Roy given their English VAs 5/13
Lycanroc 5/14
Mike Jones (StarTropics)5/15
Qbby 5/16
Funky Kong 5/17

He isn't on the schedule for this week, but he's basically guaranteed for next week.

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Bomberman
Chance: 15% - Of all Konami characters that aren't Snake, I think he has the highest chance (along with Simon Belmont). That said, even with Super Bomberman R, I doubt Konami will get a character this time.
Want: 30% - I'm sorry, but I just don't see the appeal. Other characters have bombs already, and there's only so much you can do with them.

Prediction: Black Shadow
Chance: 9.17%
Want: 31.07%

Prediction: English VA for Marth/Roy
Chance: 2.94%
Want: 72.49%

Nominations:
Sakura Shinguji x5