Rate Their Chances- Smash Ultimate Day 340 - Lara Croft (Tomb Raider)

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Hey so it's been unofficially revealed that Namco is also working on this game and when the game started development(August 2016).

994195612722577414 is not a valid tweet id

LinkedIn: https://jp.linkedin.com/in/tiago-sonobe-39281828
Not exactly sure how any of that has to do with Namco, considering he left Namco and is currently working at Nintendo (based on his LinkedIn, Twitter, and how his name does make an appearance in Super Mario Odyssey's credits).
But it seemingly does confirm that work on Smash 5 had begun sometime AFTER August 2016, which lines up pretty well with what a lot of people here expected it to.

Don't really think this changes anything a whole lot, but it is nice to have some confirmation, I guess.
 
Joined
Mar 30, 2018
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562
Recycled Character Art
Chance - 10%
Link has already been confirmed for a makeover, so I doubt it.
Want - 2%
Meh.

Nominations - 5x Mimikyu


Smash 4 had some terrible poses, and these ones take the cake. I can only hope these are much improved this time around.
I think the Captain Falcon one is interesting. Could be better, but it's cool to see them in more action pose types than always static.



Can we Re-Rate Rex & Pyra and ARMs/Spring Man before E3?
Well, there's still always the chance Sakurai reserved a couple flex spots for upcoming games. And then there is also the DLC angle for both.
 
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Wyoming

Connery, Sean
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Reused Artwork:

Chance: 0%
Link's Breath of the Wild inspired design should disconfirm this. This not only means that the Zelda cast will get brand new spanking renders and artwork, but other games that released around that time span such as Star Fox, Kirby, Pokemon, and Fire Emblem should get brand new art based around them. It is possible that some characters re-use the same pose, but I wouldn't bank on it. There's no reason to create new art for some but leave others in the dust.

Want: 0%
No - every Smash game needs its own flair. I like seeing the smallest of details tweaked to fit the new game's tone and vibe.

Ganon: 19.2%

Nominate Black Shadow x5
 

Wyoming

Connery, Sean
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Nomination update!

Bomberman x270
Black Shadow x262
Concept: Marth and Roy given their English VAs x260
Lycanroc x241
Mike Jones (StarTropics) x240
Qbby x235
Funky Kong x228

Over 200:

Simon Belmont x227
Agumon x225
Sans x218
Azura x214
Urban Champion x210
Dark Samus x204
Spyro x200

199-150

Concept: Decloned Dark Pit x197
KOS-MOS x190

Travis Touchdown x189
Kamek x188
Mipha x188
Music: Final Destination (Ver. 2) x185
Masked Link x182
Sylux x180
Pyra/Mythra (without Rex) x172
Gengar x162
Mimikyu x154
Lip x151
Concept: Skyrim representation x150

149-100

Parabo & Satebo x149
Snip & Clip (Snipperclips) x145
Cranky Kong x140
Concept: Octopath Traveller Character x135
Concept: Decloned Ganondorf x133
Wonder Red x131
Linkle x130
Ryu Hayabusa x130
Neku Sakuraba x128
Tom Nook x123
Excitebiker x119
Papyrus x118
Thwomp x115
Concept: Fire Emblem Heroes Summoner x115
Fawful x111
Octoling x110
Tetra x104
Tsubasa Oribe (Tokyo Mirage Sessions ♯FE) x100


99-75

Katrielle Layton x98
Lloyd Irving x95
Sakura Shinguji x93
Slippy Toad x90
Concept: Masked Dedede Final Smash x90
Concept: Ken Masters alt Costume for Ryu x86
Susie x86
2B (Nier: Automata) x84
Tingle x81
Sable Prince x79
Fjorm x75


74-50

Veronica x73
Klonoa x71
Django (Boktai) x70
Concept: Canon Bowser/DK/Diddy voice clips x70
Concept: Fire Emblem Spear User x70
Steve x70
Labo related character x68
Barbara x67
Zeraora (Pokémon) x61
Lara Croft x57
Starfy x55
Pokemon Trainer (Gen 2) x55
Arcade Bunny x52
Veteran: Roy x51
Veteran: Dr. Mario x51

49-30:

Ray (Custom Robo) x48
Balloon Fighter x47
Returning game mode: Smash Run x46
Rick/Coo/Kine x45
Concept: Wars character x43
Gooey x42
Primarina x40
Dragonite x37
DeMille x37
Concept: Mother Newcomer x35
Callie and Marie (Splatoon) x35
Tails x35
Tora & Poppi x35
Scorpion x35
Nia and Dromarch (Xenoblade) x34
Viridi x33
Doshin the Giant x32
Veteran: Bayonetta x32
Toon Zelda x31
Slime x3
Snorlax x29
Leo (FE Fates) x28
Takumi (Fire Emblem) x28
Concept: Indie Character x28
9-Volt x28
Hector (Fire Emblem) x 26
Medusa (Kid Icarus) x 26
Ghirahim x26
Tiki x26
Sophitia (Soulcalibur) x25
Double Day: Sheriff / Diskun x25
Prince Fluff (Kirby) x25
Concept: Style Savvy Character x25
Endou Mamoru x25
Stage: New Donk City x25
Ayumi Tachibana x25
Concept: Pikmin newcomer x25
Concept: Transformation characters x25
Leon Kennedy x25
Veteran: Corrin x25

24 and less:

Mach Rider x23
Concept: Female Announcer x20
Mach Rider x23
Concept: No Mega Evolutions x12
Concept: Battlefield Stages x10
[Rerate] Rex & Pyra x10
Alex Kidd x5
[Rerate] Daisy x5
Solaire x5
Shadow x5
Lark x5
Saber x5
Orbulon x5
Zangoose x5
Kumatora x5
Louie x5
Fire Emblem Switch Protagonist x5
Joker x5
Masked Man x3
[Rerate] Squirtle x2
Stage: Metal Caverns x2

Changes:

Lycanroc moves up to 4th ahead of Mike Jones
Qbby moves up to 6th, and Funky Kong is now into the top 7. They both move ahead of Agumon, who drops out of the top 7 into 9th as Simon Belmont also overtook him.
Spyro breaks 200 noms
Mimikyu, Lip, and Skyrim representation break 150 noms
Transformation characters, Leon Kennedy, and Corrin break 25 noms
New additions: Louie, FE Switch Protag, and Joker (all x5), as well as Metal Caverns (x2)

REMINDER THAT THE ARTWORKS DAY IS THE FINAL DAY TO INFLUENCE THE TOP 7 BEFORE THE NEW SCHEDULE IS SET.

Also TCT~Phantom TCT~Phantom who tried starting last week before I was done:

Can't let you do that, Star Fox TCT Phantom
 

Arcanir

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Reused Veteran Art
Chance: 5%
I could see it happen if it's a port, but considering most signs point to it being a new game plus Link already being confirmed to have a new design, I can't see the artwork being 1:1 between games.

Want: 0%
I'd rather they don't cut corners on this.

Nomination: Lycanroc x5
 

CaptainAmerica

Smash Champion
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Recycling Art

Chance: 0%
Want: 0%

Isn't this already deconfirmed since Link is getting a new costume and seemingly (and unfortunately for me) a new dominant hand? Why are we bothering?

Making renders takes almost zero dev time, so it's easy enough even if this is just an updated port (and if it is, why are we rating any characters?). There's no reason not to.

And good thing too. I feel everyone's Brawl renders were better than the Sm4sh ones.

Ah, but there are amiibo, so people don't want to buy them all again. Nintendo is a business, so of course they want you to do just that. And many of us will like good little consumers.

That's the other thing - amiibo. In Brawl, the story went that they were all trophies, and their official art reflected a pose that would serve well as a trophy for the SSE. Come Sm4sh they give us actual physical objects, but most of the cast is posed in such a way that they need a clear plastic stick up their *** to stay on the stand (or for the first round, they got a bright yellow stick in case the clear one wasn't obnoxious enough). Even the DLC characters, which were made after amiibo were a thing, were not immune (Bayo's legs spreading farther than the stand allowed...?).

I'd prefer everyone get a new render that would work as a physical object with minimal addition of supports. For example: Mario (especially if he gets a Cappy move or two) could get a pose similar to Luigi's Brawl render; Luigi could get something like his Brawl in-game trophy; Peach could get something similar to one of her taunts; Link could get a fighting pose like in the BotW cutscene where he protects Zelda from the Yiga; Zelda could get a pose like her sealing from the last memory cutscene (bonus points if she gets her royal gown since then she could be anchored by the entire dress); etc.

Ganon Prediction: 21.5%
Nom: something from Skyrim x5
 
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Reused Veteran Art from Smash 4
Chance: 20%
This was going to be much lower before I saw people bringing up amiibo. They're branding this as a new game, so even if it's mostly a port, I think it's unlikely they'll reuse art, but the possibility is there. I don't think BotW Link changes anything as far as we know right now, we haven't actually seen new artwork for Link yet.

Want: 5%
Smash 4 art is great, but I've seen it enough. I want new art for the next 6 years.

Nominate Fire Emblem Switch Protagonist x5
 
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Chance: 30%
They could recycle some artwork for a few characters but I think they'll go with new artwork. Also to everyone saying Link confirms they won't reuse artwork, you're wrong. It only confirms Link will get new artwork, not every character.

Want: 50%
I really don't care either way.

noms: Qbby X5
 
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DaUsername

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An increased number of "IT'S A PORT LOL" posts
Chance: 0.01%
It's not a port.
Want: 0%
:4luigi:'s icon looks dumb, and I want the port meme to die.

Ganon prediction: 27%
Noms: New Donk City x10
Veteran Character Artworks Recycled from Smash 3DS/Wii U

Chance: 100%
Want: 100%

It keeps the in-game CSPs consistent with Amiibo.

Nominations: Lip x5
Nintendo could also just make amiibo based on the hypothetical Smash 5 art so collectors would have 50+ more amiibos the collect.
 

Cycrum

Smash Apprentice
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Messages
125
Reusing Smash 4 Veteran Artworks

Chance: 0%

Doing this takes literally no time at all away from the developers as they are not the ones creating new renders, the tone of the Switch game seems to be significantly darker than 4, Nintendo could easily profit off new amiibo for the veterans, and, in the only trailer thus far, Link is shown in his BotW gear, which is already a sign that veterans will likely be visually changed, but not to the extent of Link. Besides, this game will likely have a new rendering engine, according to a former Bandai Namco employee:

Want: 0%

I would be significantly underwhelmed if we got the same artwork for the returning Smash 4 veterans that we have seen for nearly four years.

Predictions:

Ganon: 22.66%

Nominations:

Steve (Minecraft) x10 (extra 5 noms from Greninja)
 
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Reused Veteran Art

Chance: 15% - I could actually see this happening for some parts of the roster. You think they're gonna wanna do new poses and artwork for all 8 of the Koopalings? I could see them skimping out on a few and just using what they've already made. The amiibo thing has arguments both for and against it, so I don't think it can really factor in here in the end.

Want: 50% - I could care less honestly. It doesn't take a lot of time to do but also won't affect my enjoyment of the game in the slightest. If we do get new artwork and amiibos, I'm planning on only getting characters that weren't in Smash 4 anyways. So no skin off my back no matter what they do.

Predictions

Ganon: 12.22% - This one is interesting. Ganon's the only Zelda rep we don't have a double of yet, and Pig Ganon is a pretty big part of the franchise. But currently he's the Dorf's Final Smash, and unless he gets an overhaul I don't think the stars or people's hopes will align in his favor.

Nominations

Gonna take a quick break from Scorpion to help a classic hopefully make it for next week. So for today, Simon Belmont x 5.
 

Roberk

Smash Champion
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Messages
2,558
Reusing Artwork

Chance: 0%
I usually give at least 1% because "just maybe", but this is different than character predictions. Never has a Smash game majorly reused stuff like icons, poses, art, etc. They all have their own identity. Also, updated art is needed to reflect updated characters. Just look at Marth's/Ike's transitions from Brawl to 4. Ike got updated to reflect his sequel and Marth got updated to reflect his remake. Plus, BOTW. We've had the TP design for Zelda characters for two games now, and I believe that Zelda will at least get a BOTW update along with Link.

Finally, the port argument needs to die. I can see reusing assets like what Smash 4 did with Brawl, but there is no way this game is just some port/deluxe edition of Smash 4. The logo, BOTW Link, Inklings, the reveal, the tournament, the video presentation that's going to be at E3, how can people still believe this is a port? It's PR suicide to hype a game up this much and to be so secretive and to have it be the big thing of E3 just for Smash on one of Nintendo's best-selling consoles to "be a port". No way.

Want: 0%
I want new content, thank you very much.

Ganon Prediction: 10%

Noms: Azura x5
 

Pennate

Smash Cadet
Joined
Aug 27, 2015
Messages
56
Concept: Reused Veteran Artwork

Chance: 0%

Want: 0%

Predictions:
Ganon: 11.67%

Nominations:
Simon Belmont x4
Concept: Decloned Ganondorf x1
 

Lampy

Smash Hero
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*sigh* Re-used vet artwork...

*edit* appearently a new rendering system is being used, confirming it's a new game, so lemme change my score real quick.

Chance: 0%
Why.

Chance: 1%
Why.

Want: 0%
Why.

Gooey x5
 
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Nerd Saga Nate

Part-Time Youtuber, Full Time Nerd
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Reused Veteran Artwork
Chance: 0% -
Pretty sure it's a new game and with a different design for an established character I doubt this will happen.
Want: 0% - No thanks.

Prediction: Ganon
Chance: 8.91%
Want: 58.19%

Nominations:

Sakura Shinguji x5
 

UGXwolf

Smash Rookie
Joined
Aug 24, 2016
Messages
16
i was really confused about this when you guys started. I was like "reused art assets? OF COURSE they'll reuse some of the art assets. They'd have to be insane to try building a 100% new Smash game from the ground up in just 2 years."

Now I see that we're talking about character renders. That makes more sense with the responses we've been getting because unless it's a port/enchanced port, that'd be a strange decision on their part.

Reused character renders from Smash Wii U

Chance - 2%

I think even if it's a Splatoon 2 style "sequel" most characters will have new renders. I think the only chance of this happening is if some DLC is added of previously cut characters that they wanted to toss out quick and easy so they just gave them the same art. Even that doesn't make a lot of sense, tbh.

Want - 30%

I won't be screaming and throwing a hissy fit, if they do. I just would prefer to see new artwork.

Ganon prediction:
36.42% chance
42.53% want

Nominations:
Joker (Persona 5) x5
 

Erureido

Smash Hero
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Double abstain

------

Predictions

Ganon (The Legend of Zelda): 28.31%

No comment.

------

Nominations

Corrin (Fire Emblem): x5
 
Joined
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Messages
505
Reused Art

Chance 0%: I can't see a good reason to reuse the art.

Want 0%: Same as above.

Nominations:
Masked Link 2x
Pokemon Trainer (Gen 2) 2x
No Mega Evolutions 1x
 
Joined
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Messages
581
I can’t fathom Blue Bowser being seen as more likely than anybody.
At least Blue Bowser's still a video game character, or at least is technically one. Lucas from The Wizard is not.

Reused Art Assets

Chance:
0%
You know, I get the feeling that this is just a way of asking if Smash 5 will be a port.

The Smash reveal was terribly light on details, but one of the few things it deigned to tell us was that Link was having his appearance updated to his Breath of the Wild look. If only the Zelda cast gets new looks while anyone who hadn't had a new game since Smash 4 doesn't, it'll be awkward.

Compound with this the fact that they've never reused renders before (unless Jigglypuff counts!), and you've basically covered all the historical factors. Sure, they'll have to make new amiibos for literally everyone, but I doubt Nintendo will really see that as a negative. Smash 4 wasn't held back by amiibo production, and they know a lot better about the demand to produce an appropriate supply. It's not as if the Smash 4 amiibos will suddenly become defunct either, since amiibos are defined by the identity of their character, and not the model itself.

Want: 0%
I'd prefer it to not be a port, and if the engine's truly brand-new, then there's little point copy-pasting Smash 4 while they're at it.


Predictions:
Ganon 7%

Nominations:
Papyrus x5
 
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Reused art

Chance: 20%

Maybe they could feel a bit lazy and think the artworks don't need an update, idk.

Also I don't see the need of producing another Smash line of amiibos of 50+ characters because they strike some new poses.

Want: 20%

Don't care, what a boring topic to rate.

Predictions for Pig Ganon: 11.86%

Nominations: Leon Kennedy x5
 
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Finally a new day for which I'm feeling inspired enough to write a well developped argumentation not copy-pasted from a previous post of mine. I'm also happy it gets rated before we got more Smash news, as it's virtually the most likely thing to be either confirmed or deconfirmed once we get them.

Reused veteran artworks chances: 40%
I'm pretty sure there are people who wonder why I even nominated this in the first place. And no it's not by sheer lack of imagination about what the new artworks could look like. I admit even myself I would not have remotely considered it if it wasn't for a few specific factors. The most important one is the amiibo. Nintendo already has a line of Smash amiibo and I'm not sure about them launching a second Smash amiibo line depicting mostly characters who already have a Smash amiibo: it might be better to reprint the old ones and put them in a new packaging that advertises Smash Switch rather than Smash Wii U. Also the artstyle of the initial Smash Switch teaser is very similar to that of Smash 4 CGI trailers, meaning no major artstyle shift from Smash Wii U to Smash Switch, making Smash 4 artworks reusable without clashing. It would be akin to something like the returning Pokémon in seventh generation games appearing exactly the same as in generation 6.

Now for the arguments against it:

It never happened before! aka Melee got new artworks, Brawl did, and so did 3DS/Wii U. Why would anyone expect this?
It is obviously unprecedented, which means my idea is a bit of a gambit. It's however okay to be prepared for unprecedented things if you think there are legitimate reasons why it could plausibly happen like I do.

Nintendo will just do another Smash amiibo line!
This is a possibility and would go against my "Nintendo will simply reprint old amiibo" hypothesis. It's debatable whether they might benefit more from the savings of not having to redesign a new line or from the collector interest that could come from veterans getting a brand new pose. Will reprinted amiibo in a different packaging sell as much as newcomer amiibo? (or veterans in a new appearance — see the "Link appears as BotW Link!" argument) Maybe yes if Nintendo finds a new audience that missed on Smash 4 and its amiibo line, maybe not if they're under-hyped compared to new ones and do not find a market audience to collectors who might be interested in having Smash characters in a brand new pose. Or maybe Nintendo will not do anything about amiibo for Smash 5 but it sounds unlikely.

Smash Switch is not going to be a port of Smash Wii U!
I'm pretty sure people might rate this concept with the idea of Smash Switch being possibly a port in mind. We have evidence against it being a port, and I myself do not expect Smash Switch to be close enough to the Wii U version to be rightfully be called a port. The fact it got its own teaser and Nintendo is still building up sunpense upon this new Smash entry alongside its development that probably started about two years ago mean it's very likely to be of enough caliber to rightfully be called an entry of a new generation of Smash. However, I believe artworks being reused is possible even Smash Switch not being considered a port.

Link appears as BotW Link!
Smash characters getting different amiibo depicting them in different costumes is not unprecedented.
:4corrin::4corrinf::4cloud::4cloud2::4bayonetta::4bayonetta2:
So if we get BotW Link as an alt for Link then we will both have the reprinted old Link amiibo and the new Smash BotW Link amiibo. There is another more legitimate reason however to believe that BotW Link might be evidence against the concept. It's BotW Link's right-handedness, while Smash Link has always been left-handed. It's possible to have an alt left-handed and another alt right-handed, but there's the fact that Smash doesn't ignore the Z-axis: there might be concerns about both Links in this case having slightly different hitboxes, which would make them incompatible as being the same characters, as alts must not have gameplay differences, forcing good old green Link to go right-handed too. If it can't be worked out, then they might do an exception for Link by ditching his old artwork and not that of other characters, but I don't like this kind of reasoning of moving the goalposts. Or BotW Link has is own character slot, but I do not except nor like this idea.

Reusd artworks want: 59%
Smash Switch reusing Smash 4 character artworks might make it feel like less of a true revolution which is fine by me. Smash 4 is great and I'm fine with the next entry feeling like an enhanced Smash experience that doesn't change as drastically as the Melee-Brawl or Brawl-Smash 4 transition, and I would like my Smash amiibo to depict the fighters the same as they appear in the new Smash. However it's ultimately not something I deeply care about; if it doesn't happen, my gambit will have failed, but that's fine.

Edit: forgot prediction and nominations, adding them before it's too late.

Ganon prediction: 16.65%

Nominating:
Playable newcomer: Mimikyu x3
Retruning game mode: Smash Run x2

Edit 2: Lucas from The Wizard got added to the results table with more than a flat zero in chance like come on really?
 
Last edited:
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Reused vets arts

Chance: abstain
Depends if port or not.

Want: 0%
Most of Smash 4's arts were epic, but it'd be lazy as hell.


Noms:
Music: Final Destination (Ver. 2) x5

Ganon prediction: 29.34%
 

fogbadge

Smash Hero
Joined
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Scotland
reused veteran art

chances: 0% if its a new game i cant think why they would if its a port then they probably would

want: 0% itd be pretty dull if they did
 

Cosmic77

Smash Hero
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Dec 17, 2017
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Reused veteran art

Chance: 10%
I'll acknowledge that it's possible, but I really doubt they'll want to go that route if this is a new game.

Want: 0%?
I mean, I don't care if the current art stays, but I definitely prefer getting something new.

Ganon prediction: 13.5%

Nominations: Mipha x5
 

TheFritzle

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Jul 18, 2014
Messages
104
Re-Used Veteran Art Chance:
10%

We're most likely going to get all new character renders since this is a new game, they could sell more amiibos, and I think they'er going to want to try and distinguish this as much from Sm4sh so people don't confuse it with a port. They could always use the Sm4sh renders though, as in the new Mario Tennis they are reusing old Mario renders. These are games in two different leagues but it can happen.

Re-Used Veteran Art Want:
0%

I love a lot of the renders from Sm4sh, but I would really like some new ones.

Ganon Prediction:
16.86%

Nominations:
Sylux x5
 

Kotor

Luminary Uppercut!
Joined
Mar 8, 2014
Messages
2,709
Reused Veteran Art from Smash 4

Chance: 0%
Want: 0%

They're giving us BotW Link. The Veteran art won't be a straight up 1:1 port. I feel like they'd change the renders of everybody anyway even if the game was a port.

Nominations
Marth and Roy get their English VAs x5
 

KingofPhantoms

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Reused Veteran Character Art Chance: 10%

Can only see this happening if it's a port, which in itself is already unlikely at this point. That being said, I am aware the artstyle is similar (which does make sense, since while I expect it to be a new game, I also expect it to take a lot of resources from the pre-existing Smash 4) and the Amiibo situation. Even then I don't think it's going to be considered that big of a deal by the company, and taking Link's BotW redesign into account, we can already safely say at least some characters won't be getting reused artwork from the last game.

Want: 0%

There's no reason for me to want this, unless by some small chance the art of the new game turns out to be awful, which I don't anticipate either. I'd much prefer something new.

Ganon Prediction: 36%

Nominations: Sans x5
 

zipzapsparkle

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Mar 9, 2018
Messages
185
Reused artwork?

Chance: 50%
Want: 0%

Mario games recycle artwork all the time. Smash has a lot of characters now so idk I think it’s a 50/50 chance.

x3 Tom Nook
x2 Arcade Bunny
 
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Another Dimension
Chance: 37%

I think this is being underrated. Yes every game has had new renders, but every game also had significantly different graphics from the previous game. I don't think Sma5h's graphics will change much, if at all, from Sm4sh's, unless they go back to what they were in Brawl.

Some characters (obviously :4link:) could have new renders but others might not.

Want: 70%

It depends on how different visually Sma5h is from Sm4sh.

Nominations: Urban Champion ×5
 

TCT~Phantom

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TCT~Phantom
Reused Veteran Art

10% Chance
Abstain Want

Essentially is this a port? That is the question.

Nominating Spyro X 5

DAY OVER CALCS INCOMING Wyoming Wyoming I will use the current nos schedule atm if anything changes I'll adhear, at least bomberman seems to be on top
 
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TCT~Phantom

Smash Champion
Joined
Dec 10, 2013
Messages
2,280
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TCT~Phantom
Concept: Veteran Art Reused from Smash 4

11.09% Chance
13.18% Want

Looks like this is one returning possibility people are not a fan of.

@Llort A. Ton gets five noms for the concept prediction.

Today we have the Dark Lord, Ganon. As his own character. Please rate Pig Ganon in Chance and Want. Also please predict the scores for Bomberman.
 
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