Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Wyoming]

Isaac:

Chance: 15%
The series got less representation than in Brawl with his removal as an assist trophy. He lacks relevancy which hurts his chances. However, his saving grace could be the ballot. I have no doubt he was requested a fair bit across the world.

Want: 40%
I've played the first game. I like the setting but Isaac himself wasn't the interesting part although his moves were pretty cool. I am not clamoring for him, but if he gets in I'd be ok with it.

Bandana Dee prediction: 51.4% chance, 55.7% want.

Noms: Cranky Kong x1, Concept: F-Zero Newcomer x4

 

[Deleted member]

Isaac

Chance: 7.5%

On one hand, he may or may not have had a decent following on the Ballot, though we haven't really seen any good indication for either, and fan polls only represent a small portion of the Smash community. On the other, there still hasn't been a new Golden Sun game since pre-Smash 4, and there likely won't exist one anytime soon after Dark Dawn supposedly failed and developer Camelot is currently focusing on Mario sports games.

Want: 85%

Sure.

Prediction: Dee - 47.9%

Nomination: Shulk x5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Isaac

Chance: 10%

His series is basically dead. Ballot results is the only slimmer of hope this guy has left but I don't know if it's enough.

Want: 25%
No experience with Golden Sun but I wouldn't be against him.

Predictions: BanDee 71.3%

Nominations: Hades x3 Pacman x2

 

[Ura]

Isaac

Chances: F (0%)

Isaac had two chances to make it into the roster, Brawl and Smash 3DS & Wii U. Brawl because that was when he was at the apex of his popularity alongside Golden Sun. Smash 3DS and Wii U because he faced much less competition from highly popular characters although in hindsight we underestimated the potential series that could get in. With both opportunities, he failed to get in and not only that, didn't even get to keep his AT when Saki of all characters did. If that wasn't a bad outcome for him, I don't know what it could be.

Now his franchise is dead. Camelot, once a premiere RPG company, has been reduced to making Mario Tennis and Golf games to keep the lights on since they sell a lot more. If the franchise was going to come back, it would have been on the 3DS and it didn't happen. Predictably, Camelot's first game on the Switch is well, Mario Tennis Aces. That shows they do not have the money to make a HD Golden Sun because the cost outweighs the benefits and I don't see Camelot embracing a download-only route.

People will cite popularity and fan demand as a reason to keep hoping, that maybe he did well enough to warrant a slot on that merit, but what they don't realize is that Isaac is no longer at his peak. His Japanese fan base collapsed after he didn't make it in Brawl and even his Western fan base is withering away as the years go by without a new game. In five, ten, twenty years, how many fans will still be clamoring for his inclusion? People also overestimate the influence that the Smash Ballot will have on the game. We'll get one runner-up for sure, but certainly no more than two. Since one of these are likely taken up by the Inklings, how is Isaac supposed to compete with someone like King K. Rool if we get a second slot? There's no way we're getting anymore. In fact, we'll be lucky to get even that second slot so he's shut out.

Like Ridley, he will never make it in any Smash game. It's past time to move on.

Don't you think a 0% Chance score is overdoing it? Of course I won't even try to argue that Isaac is a likely inclusion but saying that he'll "never" happen is taking it to a whole new extreme.

 

[Accursed]

Isaac chance: 5%

Want: 100%

 

[Aetheri]

Isaac

Chance: 15%
He's got the demand and a dedicated fanbase behind him, but I feel he may be very low priority compared to other characters from Nintendo's bigger franchises like K Roll and Bandanna Dee who have similar demand...

Having a new Golden Sun game would help, but we currently have no idea what Nintendo plans to do with the series going forward at this time...

Want: 10%
I've never played Golden Sun, so my interest in the character is quite low...He could be interesting with Earth powers and such but he's far down my list personally...

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Predictions:
Bandanna Dee 67.5%

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Zelda Newcomer x5

 

[Nonno Umby]

Isaac

Chance: 10%

The series is in hiatus and he was even removed from his position as an Assist Trophy. Also he is partially owned by a seprate studio, making things even harder. He isn't impossible but he is very unlikely.


Want: 40%
I have never layed a Golden Sun game so I have really no attachment to the character, but he would please his fans.

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Isaac
Chance: 10% - His time is basically up. All he has now is the fanbase behind him and the Smash Ballot results. If you ask me though, it was Smash 4 or nothing. At least he's in SSF2.
Want: 75% - I like him well enough, but not at the cost of other characters I want.

Prediction: Bandana Dee
Chance: 47.86%
Want: 67.23%

Nominations:
Sora x5

Sad that I missed a day.

 

[abrinx77]

Issac
Chances: 30%: I don't know a ton about Issac, but he always seems to be popular among the fans. Other than not having had a new game in years, he doesn't seem to have any major glaring issues that would prevent him from being in the game, thus I think he has a better chance than other popular choices like Snake or Ridley. Plus, he would represent a new franchise for Smash, something Sakurai has always seemed very fond of, so I wouldn't say he's impossible.

Want: 60%: He's a unique character that represents a new franchise for Smash Bros, so he meets my needs very well. The more we can pull from all corners of Nintendo's history, the better.

Bandanna Dee Chances: 70%
Nominations: Balloon Fighter x5

 

[nirvanafan]

Isaac

Chances: 20%
Are Nintendo the sole owner of Golden Sun or does Camelot also have rights. Franchise has been inactive and even lost the assist trophy in smash 4 (is there even a regular trophy for Golden Sun?). Unless a comeback is coming I see no reason to bring Isaac in especially if Camelot have a say since I think Nintendo may want to go with bigger 3rd party characters instead.

Want: 10%
Never played Golden Sun and do not plan to any time soon.

Nomination: Tiki X5

 

[Morbi]

Isaac

Chances: 80%
Honestly, I find him highly likely, the assist trophy shenanigans were not a coincidence. Smash Switch was being developed right around the end of Smash for Wii U's life-cylce as is and I am fairly certain he did okay on the ballot. Beyond that, he has very few heavy hitters to compete with and Sakurai stated that the play-style a character offers is how the game evolves and Isaac is the only character I ever made a complete move-set for because it was so easy. I never even played the game, either.

Want: 50%
With the inevitable Rex and Pyra, or at least some Xenoblade character, the amount of anime swordsmen will reach an all-time high. It might not bother some people, but I never really associated Nintendo with that style. He sounds fun, he genuinely does and that is why I am partial. It is just, well, the same song and dance. I wanted him over Shulk, we got Shulk who offers little outside of the Monado arts that are just multipliers. Rex is going to be as generic, but he has Pyra with him. I hope for a Chrom-esque situation; however, Sakurai was apparently into X2. Maybe that will be our saving grace and he can pick an interesting character. Or just Pyra on her own, whatever the case, Rex might be the biggest offender of the trope. If he managed to get in, Isaac, despite standing out, would just make me appreciate the game less.

 

[Lukingordex]

Isaac

Chances: 30%

Want: 70%

 

[Deleted member]

Don't you think a 0% Chance score is overdoing it? Of course I won't even try to argue that Isaac is a likely inclusion but saying that he'll "never" happen is taking it to a whole new extreme.

A 0% chance is not overdoing it. Isaac has done literally nothing to merit reconsideration. If he can't get in when his franchise was in more optimal position, why would he get in now?

 

[Organization XIII]

Chance: 40%
My chance may seem high but I think the poll is going to have a bigger impact than most do. I believe the only reason we got one poll character in Smash 4 because they planned to use the data for characters in the next Smash. They do have a precedence of using polls to determine new characters for Smash. Now if Isaac did well, which he most likely did, then he has a chance. The only thing hindering his chances is that is series is, unfortunately, dormant, which as Sakurai has stated, puts him at a disadvantage.
Want: 100%

 

[a smart guy]

Isaac:
Chance: 8% Isaac supporters are grasping at straws. They are using a lack of evidence (Isaac not being an Assist Trophy in the Wii U version) as evidence. I don't buy that conjecture. More realistically, Isaac wasn't relevant any more, so they cut his assist trophy. He only has fan support going for him.
Want 55%: I'm not against Isaac, and I think he could have a cool moveset. Plus, it would make his fans happy.

Predictions for Bandana Dee: 51%
Nominations: Chibi-Robo x5

 

[Deleted member]

Are Nintendo the sole owner of Golden Sun or does Camelot (Wiki says owned by Sega) also have rights. Franchise has been inactive and even lost the assist trophy in smash 4 (is there even a regular trophy for Golden Sun?). Unless a comeback is coming I see no reason to bring Isaac in especially if Camelot/Sega have a say since I think Nintendo may want to go with bigger 3rd party characters instead and Sega would also want a different character for their next rep (perhaps an Atlus rep).

Sega doesn't own Camelot or any rights to Golden Sun. The two haven't even worked together since 1998.

 

[Kouzeon]

Isaac

Chance: 10%
His time seems long overdue by now. Brawl and Smash 4 were his best chances, and barring a random revival of Golden Sun, it's pretty unlikely

Want: 65%
I always thought Isaac would be a cool newcomer, and I think he has a lot of inherent potential in his moveset.

Bandana Dee Prediction: 68.2%

Decidueye x 5

 

[nirvanafan]

Sega doesn't own Camelot or any rights to Golden Sun. The two haven't even worked together since 1998.

Thanks for clearing some of that up. I am kind of curious and idk if you or anyone else here would know, is Camelot independent?, and is Golden Sun a Camelot/parent company, Nintendo, or all of the above property? Been curious about this for a while but never found an answer.

 

[Deleted member]

Thanks for clearing some of that up. I am kind of curious and idk if you or anyone else here would know, is Camelot independent?, and is Golden Sun a Camelot/parent company, Nintendo, or all of the above property? Been curious about this for a while but never found an answer.

I believe it's independent.

 

[Mario123311]

Issac

Chance: 35%
Aside from being an assist trophy in Brawl, he hasn’t had any real other appeances in the Smash games even as a simple trophy. However he has been requested for a long time too. SINCE the Brawl days.

Want: 14%
Aside from being the usual swordsman, I’m part of the group being sick of generic JRPG-type protagonist characters in general, this is no exception. I have never played Golden Sun nor do I feel motivated or interested enough to look into it, I’ve never been into many RPGs aside from Paper Mario, Mario & Luigi and a very slight bit of Pokemon. Granted considering this is a FIRST PARTY and not a THIRD PARTY, I could care less if they add him or not either way. Fans can get what they want this time I suppose.

Nominate Klonoa x5

 

[Ura]

A 0% chance is not overdoing it. Isaac has done literally nothing to merit reconsideration. If he can't get in when his franchise was in more optimal position, why would he get in now?

In Brawl he faced stiff competition from many of the heavy hitters of Nintendo. Smash 4 is a different beast all together because Dark Dawn wasn't as big of a hit as the GBA games. Some characters just get a tough break when it comes to inclusion.

If nothing else Isaac's popularity in the Ballot would warrant him a higher score than 0% I would imagine.

 

[PK_Wonder]

TCT~Phantom thank you so much for doing this. Any way we can get the nominations list updated please? I know you're busy, no rush.


Isaac:
25% chance. He's one of the most wanted characters among the core Nintendo audience, but he is pretty obscure among your casual gamer or younger Smash player (don't mean to stereotype, there's exceptions in both camps). He's been recognized as an AT once and presumably did decent in the fan ballot based on the limited data we have, but until GS shows signs of a new entry I can't go any higher than this. Among the candidates that remain, however, he has a better resume than most.

100% want. I love GS and I love his moveset potential. Bring it on, and give us GS4 while you're at it.

Noms:
Simon Belmont x5

 

[Erimir]

A 0% chance is not overdoing it. Isaac has done literally nothing to merit reconsideration. If he can't get in when his franchise was in more optimal position, why would he get in now?

Because some of his competition has already been added to the game. And he may* have done alright on the ballot. Those are the only arguments I can think of.

*I'm skeptical that the public polls were a representative sample, he probably did a lot worse among more casual gamers and non-American voters, who weren't covered well by polls on this site/Reddit/etc.

(I rated Isaac with a very low chance, 2%, so I don't exactly give these a lot of weight. I rated him at 20% before Smash 4. His total absence from Smash 4 is the thing that crushed his chances IMO.)

 

[Erureido]

Isaac

Chance: 15%

He has a massive support base behind his back. However, he hasn't had a new game in a while, and with each passing year combined with the lack of a new game, relevancy is becoming a bigger issue than in the DLC days. His removal of his Assist Trophy status from Brawl in Smash 4 was also not a good sign.

Want: Abstain

Not familiar with Isaac enough to give a proper want score.

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Predictions

Bandana Dee (Kirby): 62.17%

He is becoming a major recurring character in the Kirby series, but Sakurai bias will probably be the main deciding factor that people will argue against his inclusion.

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Nominations

Professor Layton (Professor Layton): x5

 

[So_many_mails]

Isaac

Chance: 20%

I was originally going to put this higher, but thinking about how the series was basically scrubbed from Smash in 4, and how nothing has made him relevant since, I think a lower chance is justified. The only thing he really has going for him is the ballot, which I have no doubt he was pretty high in.

Want: 30%

I've never played Golden Sun, but seeing how much others support him kind of makes me want him too, almost like an underdog.

Bandana Dee Prediciton: 40%

Noms:
Professor Layton x5

 

[Deleted member]

In Brawl he faced stiff competition from many of the heavy hitters of Nintendo. Smash 4 is a different beast all together because Dark Dawn wasn't as big of a hit as the GBA games. Some characters just get a tough break when it comes to inclusion.

If nothing else Isaac's popularity in the Ballot would warrant him a higher score than 0% I would imagine.

Because some of his competition has already been added to the game. And he may* have done alright on the ballot. Those are the only arguments I can think of.

*I'm skeptical that the public polls were a representative sample, he probably did a lot worse among more casual gamers and non-American voters, who weren't covered well by polls on this site/Reddit/etc.

(I rated Isaac with a very low chance, 2%, so I don't exactly give these a lot of weight. I rated him at 20% before Smash 4. His total absence from Smash 4 is the thing that crushed his chances IMO.)

The problem with the competition argument is that you could say the exact same thing about his absence from Brawl, that Isaac having less competition may get him in. It didn't despite there being more opportunities for new franchises to get in. When Isaac doesn't get in again, are people still going to bring this up again?

Also, like Erimir said, Isaac (and for that matter, anyone not named Ridley) may somehow be less popular than what we give them credit for and thus, may have underperformed compared to our expectations in the Ballot. Also even if he did well in the ballot and even if fan polls reflect Isaac's actual popularity, it still doesn't address that there's not going to be as many ballot runner-ups as we think. I don't see how he could squeeze through with all he has going against him.

 

[12cheeper]

Isaac

Chance:20%
Honestly his best chance to get in has long passed.
Dark Dawn sold poorly,he was removed from smash 4 entirely,and Golden Sun is all but completely dead.
His only hope is if he did well on the ballot.

Want:70%
I'm not too big on golden sun but he's pretty damn unique and would translate pretty well into smash.

Nomination:Tiki x5

 

[Starcutter]

Isaac

Chance: 15%
By far not the lowest, since I'm pretty sure he has decent popularity. It's just that's all he has.

Want: 65%
I loved Golden Sun but I don't care about him anymore.

Bandanna [Waddle] Dee Prediction: 56%

Nominate
Snip & Clip (Snipperclips) x5

 

[YoshiandToad]

Isaac

Chance: 10%
Oh dear Isaac, where did it go so wrong? Golden Sun's dead and buried with no glimmer of hope for a sequel right now, Robin sort of is doing your swords and magic thing a lot of fans wanted you for in the last game and worst of all you were removed from the previous game despite being one of the most beloved Assist Trophy ideas.

He has the ballot going for him, and a cult following however...I just wonder if it'll be enough?

Want: 80%
Well I hope so because I'm actually very down for another magic swordsman character. Robin's great and one of my favourite Sm4sh newcomers but with so many unique abilities Isaac has to pull from it'd be very easy to warrant two completely different magic swordsmen.

The only thing that stops Isaac being higher in want is I'm not a big RPG fan and thus haven't really experienced him first hand. My sister absolutely flipping adores Golden Sun however, and I know his inclusion would make her day.

Bandana Dee prediction: 73.2%

Nominations:
Concept: Zelda Newcomer X 5

 

[Icedragonadam]

Isaac

Chance: 13%

He already had a few chances, but I don't think he's all that really requested now a days, not too mention being cut as an assist trophy in 4.

Want: ABSTAINED

Prediction

Bandana Dee: 36.62%


Nominate Lloyd Irving x5

 

[jamesster445]

Isaac

Chance- 25%
Golden Sun is kind of a dead series at this point and Isaac even got demoted from his AT status.
Want- 50%
I never played the games myself so I have no personal attachments. But I've learned what the character is capable of so I'm curious.

Nominations- Prince Fluff x5

 

[Geno Boost]

Isaac

chance 25%
The golden sun series has sold a million and It really hurts me to give him 25% he is my 2nd most wanted character in smash and I would probably going to give him a lower percent but then I remembered since his game got released on Wiiu VC I decided to give a little bit higher percent

Why the only golden sun content in smash 4 is music right now? Why didn't Isaac get at least a Mii costume? I hope someday Sakurai would answer these questions

Want 99%
Golden sun is amazing and Isaac have a very interesting playstyle and I love him and SSF2 showed us how amazing he can be

Nominations:
Geno x5

 

[Troykv]

Isaac

Chance: 15%

Right now, the only thing going for him its his fanbase; isn't imposible, but doesn't look like someone with priority unless something weird happens.

Want: 55%

The extra 5% is because I liked the results that SSF2 gives us about creating a moveset for him



Bandana Dee prediction (And then... our first newcomer idea that actually looks likely): 56.7%

Nominations: Micaiah (Fire Emblem) x5

 

[Gunla]

Issac
Chance - 5%
It's likely not happening; Golden Sun is kind of in limbo and Issac missed the welfare Smash Bros. voucher in Wii U/3DS.

Want - 50%
Neutral. I don't really care for him but I see how he could be interesting.

Bandana Dee Prediction: 65%
(In all reality he's not as safe as a lock as Spring Man, but he's particularly likely).

Nominations: Celica x5

 

[andimidna]

Isaac:

Chance: 20%
For reference, this is a higher score from me.
I still found it really suspicious that his content was cut. Since when was relevance necessary for an AT? I almost want to say that he was planned late in development, scrapped for time constraints, left for DLC, then a bunch of major 3rd party deals, current promotion, and easy semi clones/ veterans took priority, when the idea of a new installment came to fruition. Are his current merits amazing? Not really, but people seemed way more hopeful around the Smash 4 era, which I think would be the time he was decided, if at all. Why cut a whole series from Nintendo'a history. ATs are the perfect place for characters that aren't relevant/ the best for to be characters. I think this scenario is p much his only chance, and I really don't know how to put a number to it, but I tried.

Want: 60%
This is what's fallen a lot for me between games. Still haven't played his games, and Smash 4 really set a new precedent for the uniqueness of newcomers. I know he has unique magic, but I have yet to hear of a gimmick/mechanic. I know "gimmick" generally has negative connotations, but I like them

Dee Prediction: 60%

x4 Midna
X1 Veronica

 

[AlphaSSB]

Damn, wish I had known about this thread sooner.

Isaac

Chance: 10% - Was an Assist Trophy in Brawl that didn't even return in Smash 4. Only thing he has going for him is his position in the ballot, and if Sakurai deems him worthy.

Want: 50% - Wouldn't mind if he joined the fray, but wouldn't be hurt if he didn't.

Nominations: Krystal x5

 

[KingBroly]

Isaac:

Chance: 10%
I'd have this higher if his AT wasn't cut from Wii U/3DS and if Golden Sun Dark Dawn on DS wasn't horrible, killing the series forever IMO.

Want: 5%
A very small part of me wants him to be playable, but I feel like the time has passed for him to make it.

 

[PeridotGX]

Chances: 5%. Maybe the ballot helped, but that's one small help against the hurricane of obstacles.

Wants: 30%. I really don't care much about him.

Nominations: Kamek x3, Marx x2.

 

[Shyy_Guy595]

Issac

Chance: 25%

While most peoole will claim his series is dead, that hasn't stopped some other characters. However, his most recent game was a flop and there may be more complaints of yet another sword-user in the game. His AT was removed and he lost what representation he did have and didn't make it as a DLC character despite his decent fanbase. He's still got a priority issue as well, if we're being honest here. All in all, I only made him so high because of his popularity and the fact dead series don't discount characters from being included.

Want: 50%

Personally, I'm inpartial to lots of characters and Issac is no exception. Would be neat if we got him for his fans, but otherwise, I wouldn't care.

Prediction for Bandana Waddle Dee: 85%

 

[Johnknight1]

Isaac:

Chance: 5%

Not many newcomers IMO have a shot (made a "for laughs and giggles" list of Nintendo-owned characters that could be newcomers left, and he placed 13th), but at least he has that. Not a lot else going on for him now, other than he's bordering on being considered "retro" now.

That gives him a "fresh" angle he lacked in Brawl (too late) and Smash 4 (series too dead), but that's not the main reason he's got a shot. The main reason he's got a shot is the list of potential Nintendo-owned newcomers that are interesting and have a realistic hope are slim. We're at the bottom of like the 5th barrel now, and he's lucky enough to have some nostalgia on his side.

Speaking of which, that is proof that I am old. Things that came out when I was in middle school are considered "super old and outdated" now, from the iPod to Golden Sun.

Want: 75%

I love Golden Sun despite it ultimately being slightly above par and not exactly aging super well. It's a super fun series and I love Isaac's moveset potential. I love the moves him and Felix do in the series, and I would desperately love to see them implemented into the Smash Bros. series into a form of Isaac in Smash.

Prediction for Banana Waddle Dee: 30%