Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Organization XIII]

Chance: 90%
She's a costume I doubt she's gone. As long as Marth is in the game so is she.

Want: 0%
Whether she's in her own box or in the same space as Marth she's still an alt who cares if she's gone or not. This is like asking if I want wireframe Mac back, it makes no difference.

noms: Tethu X5

Prediction: No Cuts 45%

 

[ShinyRegice]

Marx
13.80% Chance
46.16% Want

Hey Hey! Marx actually did better in want than I think he would have. I honestly would love to see this rated in a couple of months to see if this is hype.

KeybladeSmasher and Icedragonadam predicted the same score. They each get 5 extra noms today.

Connery an updated noms list will be appreciated.

Today we are rating Lucina in chance and want and predicting the concept of No Cuts from Smash 4s roster.

My alerts told me I was tagged in this post but I don't see me being mentioned

Lucina chances: 60%
Being a clone and originating from the same game as another unique playable character puts her in an uncomfortable position for someone in the previous generation of Smash. She has considerable popularity from her home series, but that didn't prevent Mewtwo from missing on Brawl, so I don't see it as the end-all-be-all that will save her from the chopping block.

Lucina want: 40%
Having an easy mode Marth is nice I guess, but I in general find trying to hit with the tip as Marth more fun. And if we absolutely had to only get one of the two FE13 characters back, I'd much rather have Robin.

No cuts prediction: 28.23% in chance and a very high want score. What a fitting day after Lucina.

Nominating:
Concept: veteran character artworks recycled from Smash 3DS/Wii U x1
Playable newcomer: Mimikyu x4

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Lucina:

Chance: 60% - I think she's slightly more likely to stay than not, she's one of her series' most popular characters and has a ton of staying power, which gives her an edge that the other two true clones don't have. Of course by being one of the few true clones in the game there's still a chance she'll be offed as a result of being low priority, especially as she's one of two clones of Marth, so there's even the chance she'll have to compete with Roy, which might be a tall ask. If she's not a seperate character then there's always the chance that she'll be a costume at least, but I'm not factoring that into my chance rating.

Want: 85% - She's the only Smash 4 newcomer I ended up playing much, I've always liked Marth's moveset, but as someone with an aggressive playstyle I much prefer Lucina as I don't have to constantly think about my spacing. If they manage to declone her a bit I'd still be absolutely fine with that too, her fighting style in Awakening would very likely translate into a moveset that appeals to me anyways. I should also mention that she's my favorite character in Awakening itself, so while it's not a game that I hold near and dear like a lot of other people do, I'd still be bummed out if she was cut. With all that said I'd still be able to move on from her though, as much as I like her I'll fully admit that she wouldn't really leave a glaring void behind, it'd be a shame but nothing more.

Nominations:
Geno x5

 

[slambros]

Lucina

Chance: 50%
She's so easy to develop that I think it's a coin flip based solely on representation.

Want: 0%
While I try to make it a habit to vote 100% for all the veterans, Lucina is simply one of the veterans that I could really do without. Robin represents Awakening just fine.

Predictions for No Cuts:
43.57%

Nominations:
Elma x1
Henry Fleming x2
Lana x2

 

[YoshiandToad]

Another vet rate? I feel like these are kind of a waste of a day honestly. Maybe I should just nominate a day to rating all the veterans chances and wants...it'd be hell for the ones adding up the scores though...hmmm...

Lucina
Chance: 90%
Second most popular female character in all of Fire Emblem(after Lyn), a vet now, popular character from the mega successful Awakening title and with recent appearances in Fire Emblem Warriors and Heroes. She's only getting cut if Sakurai truly runs out of time.

Want: 30%
Awakening was my first(and probably my only- gameplay just isn't for me) Fire Emblem game, and the cast is definitely the high point.
That said Future Trunks here is one of the blander characters overall to me, and I think Awakening is perfectly well represented with just Robin. Doesn't help I find her far less fun to play than Roy whose fire and power makes him an enjoyable Marth.

As Lucina is currently I'd rather cut her and have Robin and Corrin give us our female representation for the series. If they Luigify her to the point she's more than just female Marth(even though that's kind of her point) I'd bump that up to 40% but not much more.

I'll add another 10% if we can wear the mask or the wedding dress though as costumes.

Prediction
No Cuts: 75%

Nominations:
Fire Emblem Heroes Summoner x 5

 

[jamesster445]

Lucina

Chance- 75%
Want- 50%

I won't actively root for her cut because there are people that like her. But I won't be particularly upset if she's cut. If she does comeback hopefully she gets some modifications to her moveset.

Nominations- Ryu Hayabusa x5

 

[NeonBurrito]

Another vet rate? I feel like these are kind of a waste of a day honestly.

I feel like for characters who are highly debatable in terms of chance scores and want scores (like today, for example), it's fine.

If anything though, veteran days like today should probably be double days. I see Lucas and Mewtwo coming up soon in the nominations, and I think it'd be cool if we did a double day for them. It feels like less of a waste that way, because a lot of the fun of RTC is rating newcomers, not so much veterans.

I still have no idea why we did Shulk that one day though. Like, did a single person give him anything lower than a 80% in terms of chance?

 

[Deleted member]

I still have no idea why we did Shulk that one day though. Like, did a single person give him anything lower than a 80% in terms of chance?

One person gave him 50%, actually.

As for why, when I was nominating him, I didn't see him on the "do not rate" list and thought "Why not?". And honestly, I expected a lot more "Rex or Elma might replace Shulk" arguments that day.

Again, I'm sorry for those who felt that day was wasted.

 

[Megaban]

LUCINA
Chance -33%
On one hand, she's a clone. On the other hand, she's also popular. There appears a problem. Sakurai cut ALL the clones in Melee (Pichu, Young Link) or made more "important" characters" less of the clones (Falco, Ganon, Roy in Smash 4) And the fact that Lucina is in a not a HUGE franchise with 6 reps rn and one of them is from exact same game and not a clone makes it even harder. Would be easy to just drop her or reduce to a skin. But again, making her more unique could be just as easy. And also, Dr Mario DID return despite being pretty much a clone (tho a bit less now because Mario switched up moves a bit during that time) so that shows Sakurai CAN be unpredictable here. If I were to bet tho, I'd say she'll end u a skin more likely than not.

Want -40%
I don't particularly dislike her (she's kinda fun to use) nor I'd rly be angry if she did disappear. And her disappearing would mybe let someone else from FE get in without a bit less of an uproar from the fans? (like Anna winkwink)

Nomination -Lana x5

Prediction: No Cuts -37%.

 

[Roberk]

Chance: 90%
Lucina has to be one of the most likely characters to come back. Let's go over it shall we?

• Active 1st party franchise
• Third most popular FE character, second most popular female FE character.
• From a very popular and pivotal FE game, even if you hate Awakening you gotta give it some respect.
• Could be considered the new face of the franchise.
• Easy to implement clone.
• Already forced by Nintendo and IS to be in Koei Tecmo's Warriors when she wasn't initially going to be in.

Hell, I heard that IS had the Brave Lucina art ready for Heroes before the CYL poll (then Lyn blindsided them by being the most popular FE female so they expanded the winners to the top 2 of each gender.)

Want: 50%
Really don't care if she gets in or not. I'd only not want her if Sakurai considers the amount of characters repped in Smash against adding new ones and Lucina inflated that amount. I'd love Leif to take the place as the Marth clone instead. (But that'll never happen, thanks Roy)

Prediction: No Cuts - 50%
I think that no cuts is less than 1%, but I know the Smash community loves to get their hopes up.

Noms: Marth/Roy get their English VAs x5

 

[Quetzal77]

Lucina
Chance: 80%
She's very popular and important to FE, so if it's a question of deserving to return, she definitely qualifies. There are two main issues I see that keep me from rating her higher. 1, Roy is comparable in popularity and they are both derived from Marth' s moveset in Smash, so it doesn't make that much sense to keep them both. 2, Robin already represents Awakening and the resurgence of FE and does so being totally unique. I don't think Roy or Robin are getting cut. Roy just came back because people really missed him and has a potential remake in the next few years based on comments by the Echoes director. Robin is less popular than Lucina but again, is a unique character who represents new FE much better as an avatar. Still, I lean more towards Lucina returning whether that's in the base game or as DLC with a new moveset.

Want: 50%
She was high on my want list for SSB4, but I wanted her to have a unique moveset. I like her but if it were up to me she would be cut along with Corrin, at least in the base game, to make way for a new and more unique FE character. If she comes back with a new moveset, great. If she comes back with nothing changed and there are no new FE characters, I'll be disappointed.

No cuts: 66%
Nominations: Pyra/Mythra (without Rex) x3, Sora x2

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Lucina
Chance: 25% - She's super popular for some reason despite being such a bland character with a bland design.
Want: 0% - Disappointment for me in Smash 4. Unless they make her fun, count me out.

Prediction: No Cuts
Chance: 8.13%
Want: 50.71%

Nominations:
Sora x2
Sakurai Shinguji x8

 

[Tew]

Lucina Chances:
92%
I think Smash 5 won´t change too much. The Switch isn´t much stronger than the Wii U and also doesn´t have way better graphics. The gameplay in 4 felt pretty well done (no big bugs or exploits) and I doubt it will be changed, maybe a few small additions or removals (Star k.o.) but overall I don´t think the game will change as much as it did in the last years. I also think the designs of most characters as well as movesets (except for a few like Link and maybe Ganondorf, Mario...) won´t be changed too much. Because of that and that there are probably no hardware limitations, I don´t see why they couldn´t/wouldn´t bring back all characters from 4. It´s probably less work to keep Lucina as a clone than to make her an alt. Clones don´t take away too much time and no slots, they are slightly different and expand the roster. In my opinion if you cut them, you don´t gain anything and only make the roster look smaller. I don´t see why so many people hate the clones. If we remove them, we likely wouldn´t suddenly gain many more Newcomers. Though, while I like Fire Emblem, I have to agree that they have too many characters in comparison to the other franchises. As many as Pokémon and even more than TloZ seems a bit ridiculous.

Lucina Want:
51%
I don´t really care. I like playing her a bit more than Marth because I am horrible at tipping but even if she gets cut I wouldn´t be too sad.


Predict No Cuts:
42%

Nominations:
3x Weavile
2x Fjorm

 

[RouffWestie]

Lucina

Chance: 100%
Want: 0%

Nominations: Lip ×5

 

[KingofPhantoms]

Lucina Chance: 75%

On one hand, the character was added in the first place because she was originally a palette swap, but it was decided that enough gameplay differences could be applied to her to warrant making her into her own, separate character, and Sakurai actually tries to avoid making cuts whenever possible. If he's still directing the franchise as of this upcoming game, he'll almost definitely try to keep her in. On the other hand, she's a clone, an extremely similar one to her original counterpart, Marth, at that. Clones of her level are usually the characters with the lowest priority, so if development time doesn't allow for certain characters to be completed, low priority characters will probably be most of the ones who go. Lucina jsut happe

Want: 55%

No attachment to this character whatsoever. As few differences as she has with Marth's moveset, however, I sympathize with her fans, being a big fan of Toon Link myself (he's from my favorite game of all time, after all) another character who's a clone and was one of the low priority characters in Brawl, and I very much advocated for and wanted his return in Smash 4. Clones still have some negatives stigmas attached to them, with many people preferring they'd be cut or not in the games altogether. Of course, you can't be faulted for personal opinion on either side of the spectrum there (I've never personally liked the addition of Dark Pit, admittedly) but still, support for clone veterans can be tough sometimes, and many clones veterans really are at risk of being cut since, for the most part, the more unique characters are much higher priority than they are. It's a very real possibility that dedicated fans of these characters could lose them in the next Smash game as a consequence of that.

I would definitely prefer Lucina to be given more differences from Marth, her differences from him in 4 being very minimal, but there are many fans who were just happy that she was on the roster at all and were content with her being a clone. So, for all her fans, I don't want Lucina to be cut.

No Cuts Prediction: 17%

Nominations: Tetra x5

 

[Mario123311]

Lucina
Chance: 65% (sadly)
Want: 0

One of the worst clones in the series IMO. All she was, was basically female Marth. And please, do not bring the "TIPPER" excuse. She did not deserve development time on all new animations when her moveset and stats are exactly the same. At least Corrin had a unique moveset and playstyle. People will also bring up Lucina's popularity but at best, She should be demoted to an alt costume. Because that's all she was, an over-glorified alt costume.

Nominate Klonoa x5

 

[Runic_SSB]

Lucina

Chance: 15%
Aside from balance issues, The main complaints of Smash 4 have been the extremely underwhelming single player content, the clones, and the unbalanced franchise representation. Cutting Lucina fixes two of those problems and really doesn't sacrifice anything.

Want: 0%
No more Fire Emblems.

No Cuts prediction: 10%

Nominations:
Travis Touchdown x3
Funky Kong x2

 

[Arcanir]

Lucina

Chance: 80%
While it is true that she was a last-minute clone made from an alt, she is still one of the most popular characters from the FE franchise (CYL poll shows she's 3rd only to Lyn and Ike), boasting a huge amount of merchandise and promotion. She got multiple alts in Heroes, many cards in Cipher, a figure and artwork galore, and was even pushed to be kept in Warriors even though Koei had a hard time differentiating her from Chrom. Additionally, while she may be low priority being a clone, it's a double-edged sword as her ease of creation could also makes her not as susceptible to being cut since she can be created and tweaked again using Marth's assets, which can be done in a shorter amount of time even if things got strapped.

In general, she's a character that the fans love and IS knows it, which leaves her as a very strong character to keep as she's a fan favorite that many love seeing in the game. Her clone status can both help and hurt her, but her popularity and prominence may help in keeping her around.

Want: 75%
I always did like playing as Lucina, and I liked her in Awakening, so I'd be happy to see her return and be decloned.

Nominations: Lycanroc x5

 

[Kitty-chan]

Lucina

Chance: 80%
Lowest chance score I'm gonya give to a smash 4 veteran nya. If smash 5 will actually cut characters, she'd likely be front line for the guillotine nya.

Want: 90%
Maining Marth, I occasionally played her too nya. I'm for nyo cuts at all, but honestly I'd be fine if she was just made into a Marth alt or replaced by a nyu FE character entirely nya.

Nyominations
Isabelle: x5

 

[Ghirahilda]

Lucina

Chance: 90% (9 in 10)
Clones are easy to implement, I really think she will stay. Maybe she will turn into an alt costume if Sakurai decides to remove her sword differences
Want: 100%
I really like her

Nomination: Project Octopath Traveller character x5

Also please add masked Lucina with short hair

 

[Smasher 101]

Lucina

Chance: 75%

If there even are cuts this time, Lucina is definitely among the veterans in danger of leaving, and honestly she's the only Fire Emblem character I see being in real danger. Marth, Ike, and Robin have no good reason to be on the chopping block; Corrin is also completely unique and is from one of the more recent titles; and Roy is a two time veteran that a lot of people did miss and is more different than Lucina. Lucina herself was a late addition and a clone, so I think she'll probably be lower priority due to those things along with any potential Fire Emblem fatigue.
Her likely being lower priority doesn't mean I think she'll actually leave, though. She's still both very important to her game and very popular among Fire Emblem fans so I see her as likely to be reworked into a semi-clone late in development, or at the very least a last minute clone again. I could still see her possibly missing out due to time constraints, but there are a few other veterans that are a bit more at risk than she is, I'd say.

Noting that her being reduced to a Marth alt isn't being taken into account here, though personally I don't think there's a chance of that happening anyway if she didn't become one to begin with.

Want: 70%

I always want as few cuts as possible (warning in advance that my want score for tomorrow will be very, very high), but I wouldn't miss Lucina as much as most others, since she is a clone and thus we wouldn't lose as much as we would if more unique characters were scrapped, plus Awakening would still have representation. That said, I do like her as both as a character and a fighter, and I'd be very happy if she was reworked. Even as is the concept of clones doesn't bother me that much, and I feel she's important and popular enough to deserve to stick around regardless. Just don't demote her to an alt. I actually really hate that idea, I'm glad she was made a clone instead in 4.

No cuts prediction: 48.68%

Nominations: Banjo & Kazooie x5

Just to increase their chances of staying in the top 7 for the next schedule update. I'll nominate Isabelle next.

 

[TumblrFamous]

Lucina

Chance: 85%
I don't see her leaving. She's so easy to make if she's just another clone again. On top of that, she is SO popular in the FE series. There's no harm in keeping her.

Want: 75%
I like her, but she wouldn't be the greatest loss in the world.

No Cuts Prediction: 37.4%

Nominations: Sora x5

 

[SneakDuckens]

Lucina

Chance:70%
Want: 10%

Tails x5

 

[Morbi]

???

Lucina Chance : 100%?

Like, wtf?

Lucina Want: 100%

Um, yeah, she is definitely my favorite Fire Emblem character and perhaps favorite female video-game character; however, even if that were not the case, I would not be delusional enough to expect her removed. ****** be salty, she is definitely coming back, bro. Get over it.

 

[Lord-Zero]

Lucina

Chance: 50%

- She started out as an alt that was made into a clone due to “extra time. A “free dessert” from Sakurai. She’s still decently popular and she comes from Awakening but we already have the much more unique Robin representing that game. It’s a total coin toss now.

Want: 0%

- Nope. Go back into the development oven and try to be something that’s not “Marth for Novice Players”. FE representation is already bloated as it is and could really use some trimming. She deserves better than clone or alt treatment. Same goes for Doc and Pitoo.

Prediction

No Cuts: 41%

- The Smash 4 roster could use some trimming but that’s just me.

Nominations

Katrielle Layton (Professor Layton) x4
Black Shadow x1

 

[DaUsername]

Chance: 85%
I have 2 reasons for why I think she's likely to return:

1. Sakurai himself said that the Sm4sh clones took very little time to develop and that they didn't take the place of any potential unique character, so cutting them would be pretty unnecessary.
2. All of the Melee clones were planned to be in Brawl, with the exceptions of Pichu, who was an intentionally terrible joke character, and Young Link, who was replaced with Toon Link. And the two that didn't make it were brought back in Sm4sh.

So as long as Sakurai doesnt listen to angry kids and downgrade her to an alt costume, or time constraint shenanigans don't happen, she should be fine.
Want: 80%
While I don't really care for Lucina or her series, I don't really see any reason for her to be cut. Hopefully she isn't just a worse Marth this time, though.

No cuts prediction: 40%
Noms: Dr. Mario x5

 

[Zerp]

Chances: 90%
Popular and easy to add, and I doubt they'll trim Fire Emblem's numbers personally even though the numbers don't make sense, I mean, did ANYONE expect us to get 6 FE characters in Smash 4?

Want: 50%
I'm all for keeping veterans regardless of why they were added and how deserving they were at the time of entry, and would rather have her stay but I won't really care much to bring her back if she went away.

Predictions: No cuts 34%

Nominations: Dark Matter Blade x 5

 

[skylanders fan]

chance 95%
she is one of the big stars of FE right now and easy to make because she is a clone if I had to guess she will be back hopefully with a few changes

want 60%
vets are always ok in my book but don't really ever play her

predict no cuts at 28%

nomintaing mewtwo x5

 

[Ura]

And her name is...LU-CENA!

Do do do do!

Chance: 60%

It's a tossup if she comes back or not. On one hand she's a very popular FE/Smash character and could be decloned to distinguish herself from Marth but on the other hand she could get cut if Sakurai doesn't want to do that or feels there's too many FE characters on the roster. IDK really.

Want: 70%:

I won't be devastated if Lucina gets cut but it would be nice if she returned. She was one of my mains in the early days of Smash 4.

Prediction: No Cuts

Chance: 23%
Want: 95%

Nominations

Masked Link X 5

 

[NintenRob]

Lucina
Chance: 40%
It's hard to say so I went in the middle
Clones are easy to make, but are usually the first to cut.
When a clone does return, they usually given more to differentiate themselves from the original, this even applies to Doctor Mario. But we already have Roy
She's really popular but we already have a lot of Fire Emblem characters.

Overall, I think she'll be cut, but I think she could return as DLC, but I don't take DLC into account

Want: 65%
I like Lucina, so I would like her back. But the amobut of Fire Emblem characters does annoy me a bit.

Nominate
Lara Croft x3
Parabo and Satebo x2

Prediction No Cuts 27%

 

[zipzapsparkle]

I feel like Vet days should be double days by default, just a suggestion.

Lucina

Chance 99%
Want 50%

I’m very confident, even if idc much about her, that she will stay. She’s way more prominent nowadays than all Marth, Ike, and Roy combined. It looks like she’s become Intelligent System’s new favorite. She was even mandatory for Warriors. She’s second most popular female character but still ranks higher than Marth, Robin, Corrin, and Roy. If Heroes is anything to go by she’s higher priority than the rest of the FE Smash cast.

Edit-increased my want rating Incase she gets decloned into a spear fighter.

Cranky x3
Kamek x2

 

[IceAnt573]

Chance: 70%

Lucina's popularity in her own series can only be contested by two people. She beats out the person she's a clone of, Roy, Corrin, and Robin. Keep in mind her own popularity from back in 2012-2014 led to her inclusion in Smash in the first place. The Fire Emblem Heroes poll in 2017 3 years after the release of Smash 4 is just a reaffirmation of that popularity and she's had plenty of appearances in these three years too from Monster Hunter costumes to Project X Zone 2 (I'm not even talking about specifically Fire Emblem games).

As much as I don't want her to remain one of the easiest clones to make, it's entirely possible Sakurai can just put her in back in as easy to make clone that takes no time at all.

And what exactly is stopping her from doing Roy what did and coming back as DLC with more unique moves.

Yet I do think she's one of the first characters to be considered to be cut if there are going to be cuts. Sakurai expressing concern for too many Fire Emblem characters could lean in the way I don't it to mean, but who knows.

Want: 100%

Lucina is my favorite Fire Emblem character. The character I wanted to represent Awakening the most pre-Smash 4 and I screamed in excitement when she was revealed in that July newcomer video along with Robin and Captain Falcon four years ago. I really feel for the girl that puts the world's problems on her shoulders and above her own happiness.

Plus, I was always unsatisfied that she was a Marth clone and I want to see that be righted by her having a unique moveset. Fire Emblem Warriors at least knows if her moveset is going to be a clone of anybody, it would be of Chrom's and not Marth's. I want to see her incorporate a lance and bow into her moveset IN ADDITION to her sword. Intelligent Systems played up her usage of a lance and bow after her appearance in Smash 4 (Project X Zone 2, Code Name: S.T.E.A.M., and Fire Emblem Heroes are the most notable of this).

 

[VexTheHex]

Lucina (Female Marth)
Chance - 20%
She was a low priority and late roster addition that was a glorified alternate costume from a series that Sakurai has stated may be over saturated with characters while being the the 2nd clone of Marth which did not go well for Wolf when he was even less of a clone than Fox with fewer reps from his series. She most likely is getting demoted to alternate costume like Alph or removed due to the backlash from fans and Fire Emblem starting to over step it's presence. Her Fire Emblem Popularity may keep her floating.
Want - 0%
We don't need Female Marth. When the "needed" female addition looks like a genderbend fanart creation... there is an obvious lack of any sort of impact. Ike, Roy, Robin (both), and Corrin all stand out better from each other than Female Marth can even imagine to. She is a boring design, literally any other female character in Fire Emblem would of been more interesting than Lucina.

Nominations - 5x Greninja

 

[-crump-]

Lucina
Chance: 85%
The only reason she doesn’t get a 100% is because there’s always the chance she’ll get bopped back into her alternate costume role. Honestly, do you really think she’s going anywhere? Come on now.

Besides being a veteran, Lucina is absurdly popular, inside and outside of the FE fanbase. IS pushes her into everything they possibly can. She’s recognizable, she’s an easy last-minute inclusion, and if Sakurai wanted to make her unique, he wouldn’t have any problems.

Want: 90%
Awakening was my first FE game, and while it isn’t my favorite anymore it still holds a place in my heart. Likewise, I don’t really have any strong feelings for Lucina; she’s certainly not a bad character, but I much prefer Chrom. That said, she’s a veteran, and considering that it would be monumentally stupid to give her the axe.

(BECAUSE SWORDS BEAT AXES, GET IT!?!?)
______
Noms: Henry Fleming x5

 

[BandanaWaddleDee]

Lucina
Chance: 60%
Unfortunately, she's probably coming back, whether a full character again or a Marth alt
Want: 0%
Get this boring character out of here.

No Cuts Prediction: 25.75%

Nominations
Endou Mamoru x3
Decloned Dark Pit x2

 

[Rockaphin]

Lucina:

Chance: 75%

Want: 60%

On one hand, I don't like seeing cuts. Also, I like Lucina enough in Fire Emblem and play her over Marth. However, she should've just been an alt costume. Personally, I don't think the small changes they made really warrant a separate character. Then again, I don't make the game.

Nominations:
Ken Masters Alt Costume for Ryu x3
Snorlax x 2

 

[Munomario777]

Lucina

Chance: 60%. Smash 5 is probably built on Smash 4 to an extent, so I see pretty few cuts happening. At the same time, Lucina is a clone, and they have always been low priority when it comes to veterans.

Want: 100%. I say this because there is literally no reason why I would want Lucina to not be in the next game. Being a clone, after all, she would hardly take time away from developing other characters! (Let alone the fact that she's already been in Smash 4.) I also think her moveset is nice to have in the game, since she's a kind of "basic swordfighter," excellent for learning fundamentals like spacing and whatnot. That's an important role to fill! Her character (taunts, voice, and whatnot) are also pretty cool imo.



Predictions

No Cuts: 25.5%. On the one hand, it's likely that Smash 5 is built on Smash 4's engine and such. Conversely, things like clones, third-parties, DLC, clone DLC, and third-party DLC (but, sadly, no third-party clone DLC) make this quite a chaotic and unpredictable field.



Nominations: Blue Bowser x5 (we broke 200 noms for our blue overlord, let's keep going!!)

 

[MasterWarlord]

Lucina

Chance - 25%: There's so many characters to bring back that some cuts will inevitably happen. Roy is far more popular than her, she didn't catch on nearly as much despite being another advertisement Marth clone. Her time has passed now. Still, the fact she's so casual to add doesn't mean her chance is 0.

Want - 0%: Having both her and Roy is nothing short of absolutely disgusting. Roy is at least requested. Lucina is just Marth without his clever playstyle gimmick, making the moveset far worse and more uninteresting. Fire Emblem has better characters and better women, this one was picked specifically to be a clone of Marth. Getting rid of her is the most direct way to get rid of the Fire Emblem bloating criticism.

Predicts no cuts 18%

Nominate Blue Bowser x5

 

[wildvine47]

Lucina

Chance: 78% - Her and Dark Pit are the two vets most in danger of being cut, I'd say. Even then, I think she's likely to stick around, at the very least as a costume for Marth. She's certainly got the popularity, and it's not like it'd take a lot of time to re-add her considering Marth is definitely not going anywhere. Roy offering about as much popularity with a bit more originality makes him a bit of a thorn in her side, but if they could coexist in Smash 4, they can coexist on the Switch too.

Want: 100% - No cuts. I'd be ok with her being "demoted" to a Marth costume though, especially if Sakurai really feels like he has to add a new FE character.

Predictions

No Cuts: 44.55% - If there was ever a chance for it to happen, it'd be this game. Expecting pessimism considering the series history, but with this game likely having started it's development as a port, a few, myself included, think this might be the first time we see this happen in the series' history.

Nominations

Impa x 5

 

[Deleted member]

Lucina

Chance: 95%
So we're talking about a veteran that takes minimal resources to produce, is immensely popular among her franchise's playerbase, is actively pushed to appear in crossovers by Intelligent Systems because of said popularity, and actually has a really interesting and tangible gameplay difference from the original, yet people think there's a sizable chance she gets cut? I don't get this board. Smash is always going to have clones and Lucina is probably the most obvious choice for a "high priority clone" (even though that's an oxymoron).

Want: 100%
One of my favorite FE characters. She also happens to be better than any other potential clone out there + there's a small chance her specials get decloned or changed entirely.

No cuts prediction: 55.43%

Nominating Isabelle x5