Rate Their Chances- Smash Ultimate Day 330 - Adeleine (Kirby)

Artix

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Parabo and Satebo

Chance: 0%
I have no confidence in these two making it in Smash. They're too obscure to begin with, sure they were mentioned in Mario Odyssey, but I don't think that helps them at all.

Want: 0%
I really don't know about this series overall. These two aren't even fighters, just like the last one. But, I could see them represent this series, one way or another.

Nominations:
Saber Artoria (Fate) x10
 
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Double zeroes. Way to obscure. irrelevant. Japan only. Microscopical support. Moving on...

Canon Bowser/DK/Diddy voices x10

FE Hero summoner: 1.42%
Doesn't Lyn being an Assist Trophy again kinda deconfirm this?
 

Opossum

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Double zeroes from me.

The one thing that's kind of neat is the Satelleview was pretty much Nintendo's first way to distribute free DLC, in a way. The only games I know for it though are some extra Super Mario levels and four additional maps for Fire Emblem (which, fun fact, these four maps got added to New Mystery of the Emblem as a bonus).

Literally have no clue who these characters are though lol.
 
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Parabo & Satebo

Chance: 0%
Something something Japan exclusive, something something Takamaru not in Smash 4, something something too old and obscure. Not happening ever.

Want: 0%
This feels like a bottom of the barrel reach. The only reason they are even mentioned is for some fan rule about needing a retro has-been (or in the case of these two, never was) in every game. No, just no.
 

BluePikmin11

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Nintendo novelties that did not make much of an impact to the company's history I feel will be relegated to Assist Trophies. Sukapon, the first Nintendo fighting game character, is an Assist Trophy. Color Game TV, the first Nintendo console, is an Assist Trophy. The first Nintendo character ever, Sheriff, is an Assist Trophy. I can see Parabo and Satebo following suit of this. The Satellaview was a Japan exclusive deal, and did not make much of a wave in the West nor benefitted Nintendo of Japan greatly for me to see these characters happen as the surprise for Ultimate.

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x10 Hanafuda character
 
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Kotor

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Parabo and Satebo

Chance: 0%
Want: 0%

Why are people trying to equate obscurity with "retro newcomer?" I can't even see them getting made into Assist Trophies.

Rowlet x10
 
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Parabo & Satabo

Chance - 0%

Extremely obscure, not requested whatsoever, never made much of an impact on Nintendo's history, Japan only. There's a lot holding these two back, especially considering the seemingly low newcomer count this time around.

Want - 0%

I don't know who this is, and would much rather see numerous other retros instead.

Nominations:
[Stage] Poke Floats x10
 
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Double Abstain on Parabo and Satebo's Chance and Want.

I really don't know much about the character or the series for me to rate them. Like everyone said, they're too obscure to be considered in Smash.

Nominations:
Saber (Artoria Pendragon) x10
 
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Chance: 0%
I hate the "literally who" argument as 9 times out of 10 it means "I'm writing of this character's chances because I don't know them and don't to look into them to deny they might cut into my character's chances" but here it is very apt.

Want: 100%
The obscure side of Nintendo should be in Smash just as much as the popular side. While I don't support them myself their inclusion would be 1000x times more hype for me than Ridley's just because I love Nintendo and it's lesser known series. I hope Sakurai starts using lesser characters for the roster and they would be a great sign of doing just that.
 

RandomAce

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Y’all thought Ayumi was obscure... A Japan classic that has been loved by many in Japan and even had it’s remake translated by people in the West.

Patebo and Satebo:

Chance- Abstain
Want- Abstain

I don’t know these guys at all. I’m unsure if they’re games were even translated by anyone (I looked it up, chances are they’re not) or if they’re considered classics. I’d rather get a Famicom Tantei Club Rep than them in all seriousness.
 

Sid-cada

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Parabo and Satebo

Chance - 0% - While the consoles may have sold well, a peak of 100,000 subscribers playing games means that it was more or less a flop. At least the Virtual Boy had worldwide infamy, this doesn't even have that. I think we'll see a Virtual Boy character first.

Want - 0% - Game & Watch-esque characters should at least be good and/or notable, but I don't think they are. I'd rather not have them in.


Predicitons

FE Summoner - 1.34% - Nintendo's runaway mobile sucess? Maybe...


Nominations

Nihilego X10
 

Roberk

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Guess I'll be doing this again.

Parabo and Satebo

Chance: 0% Just no. Why? Do they deserve it? Are they beloved? Can they bring interesting (not just unique) gameplay? Make some sort of retro stage and throw these things in there, I'd be surprised to see an Assist Trophy tbh.

Want: 0% I don't think this would please anyone. Of course, the Smash fanbase will love anything they are presented with, but on the initial reveal, this wouldn't please anyone. At least other characters would make someone happy, but these characters seem like a waste of time.

Predictions:
FE Summoner - 1.75%

Nominations:
Zero (Megaman) x10
 
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Ayumi Tachibana: 0.5% chance, 50% want

Parabo & Satebo

Chance: 0.5%

I'm of the belief that we won't actually get a pure retro fighter of any sort this time, and if we do I doubt they'll even be considered. Not really at the same level of the past surprise characters, Japan only, highly obscure, not requested, etc. Everyone else has said this well, I just try to avoid flat zeros just in case.

Want: 0%

I wouldn't mind Satellaview being represented in some way, actually. It interests me. These two in particular don't do anything for me at all though.

Nominations: Heihachi x10
 

Gerrothorax

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Parabo & Satebo
Chance: 0%

Obscure, Japanese only characters that appeared on a failed add on. While I do believe we'll still get a retro newcomer I seriously doubt these two are the front-runners for that role.
Want: 0%
Don't have any attachments to these characters and they'd more appropriate as an Assist Trophy than as playable characters.
Nominations: Brinstar Depths x10
 
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PapillonXtreme

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Parabo and Satebo

Chance: 0%
I highly doubt they would add retro fighters that are too obscure like them. There are other characters that needs priority,

Want: 0%
I don't know about the Satelleview series or the characters at all. I just don't want them in Smash, they wouldn't work at all.

Nominations:
Saber (Fate/stay night) x10
 

Arcanir

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Parabo and Satebo

Chance: 1%
They are region locked, lack any sort of notability, have little-to-no popularity among the fanbase, and don't even work as a 'surprise character' like ROB or Duck Hunt. I don't see it happening within the circumstances surrounding the game, they don't have anything that really makes them stand out from other options.

Want: 1%
There are other potential retro/surprise characters that I'd prefer to see.

Nomination: Incineroar x10
 
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Cycrum

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Parabo and Satebo

Chance: 0%
They are so obscure that the first few pages dedicated to them are ones created by fans. They have hardly been acknowledged over the years since the slightly less obscure Satellaview faded into obscurity. Also, the Satellaview, unlike Duck Hunt, the Game & Watch, or the Robotic Operating Buddy, made no impact on Nintendo's history, so Sakurai will likely pay no attention to them.

Want: Abstain
I know next to nothing about them. I'd be down for them as a "WTF" character, though.

Nominations:
All-Star Versus x10
 
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Guess I'll be doing this again.

Parabo and Satebo

Chance: 0% Just no. Why? Do they deserve it? Are they beloved? Can they bring interesting (not just unique) gameplay? Make some sort of retro stage and throw these things in there, I'd be surprised to see an Assist Trophy tbh.

Want: 0% I don't think this would please anyone. Of course, the Smash fanbase will love anything they are presented with, but on the initial reveal, this wouldn't please anyone. At least other characters would make someone happy, but these characters seem like a waste of time.

Predictions:
FE Summoner - 1.75%

Nominations:
If someone wants me to nominate a something just tag me, idk what to nom.
Oofy, can you nominate zero from Megaman?
 

Erureido

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Abstaining again. Not familiar with this character to give a proper rating.

------

Predictions

Kiran (Fire Emblem): 1.54%

Yes, Kiran is the default name for the FE Heroes summoner.

If it was just Breidablik as an item that summons other Fire Emblem characters, I think the chances of that could've been higher, but now that we were rating Kiran and Lyn is already summonable from an Assist Trophy... yeah, I'm doubtful.

------

Nominations

Phoenix Wright (Ace Attorney): x10
 

TCT~Phantom

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Ok just a reminder the rule of not just posting one liners exists. Since it’s so prevelant today I am gonna extend the deadline to edit your posts to 10:00 am edt. Fail and you don’t get noms and you will not get your score counted.


Now my ratings

0%Chance

The biggest hurdle is the fact that roster spots are tight and the idea of a historical rep might not make the cut. Furthermore, there are plenty of other strong choices that either have stronger historical ties like a hanafuda character or mini kangaroo, or are more well known.

0% want

With roster spots so limited, these guys do not interest me as much as they could. In another time where we would get like 14-15 unique newcomers i might be down, but with 4-8 more unique newcomers, I’m more apprehensive. These guys don’t dance in my head the way other fighters do. I do not find them interesting.

Nominating Ninten x5
 
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Yikes, these poor souls are about to get owned.

I’m going to abstain from chance, but I’m hovering between a 0%, a ‘technically anything is possible’ 1%, and a pity 2%.

Want: 50%
I would love Satellaview to be represented in some way, but to be honest I hadn’t considered these two before today. Should probably pop-up in their thread, see what possible movesets people have made. Wait, do they even have a thread? TCT~Phantom TCT~Phantom usually bumps threads on their day, and I’m not seeing it, so I assume it doesn’t exist.

Abstaining from predicting the Fire Emblem Summoner, but this’ll be an interesting day.

Nominations: NintenX5
Ryu HayabusaX5
They have a thread. There's a moveset I made from ages ago I think there. I essentially just copy pasted it from the Smash Wii U speculation support thread


Here it is https://smashboards.com/threads/who-you-ask-parabo-and-satebo-the-satellaview-mascots.453676/
 
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Parabo & Satebo chances: 3%
They're obscure Japan-only retros which is now pretty much a deal breaker. I give them a bit higher than an abysmal zero-point-something in chance because they could fonction as hardware rep and we had retro hardware reps in each game since Melee, although they weren't as obscure as this duo.

Parabo & Satebo want: 0%
I just don't find this interesting. Maybe an Assist Trophy if anything.

Fire Emblem Hero summoner prediction: 5.07%

Nominating:
New item: Beast Ball x10
 
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Parabo & Satebo

Chance: 1%
I doubt Sakurai would look here. While the prominence of online gaming might pique interest into Satellaview, it's not a service that Nintendo's particularly defined by. Especially considering Nintendo's current quality of online services.

Want: 1%
Look, you can't just pick characters out of the annals of ancient magazines and then hide behind "Obscurity" as your reasoning, because that's not the reason that obscure characters get into Smash. You want to posit Satellaview as a character candidate because it predates most online services? You're arguing for a technological dead end, something that didn't have the networks or technology advanced enough to become effectual and properly affect the history of online services in video games.


Prediction
Kiran (Fire Emblem Heroes Summoner): 2.3%

Nominations
Viridi x10
 
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Double 0
Why would Lyn be an assist trophy if this was a thing. It works for Pokemon because of the sheer variety of species and what they can do. Most Fire Emblem characters are just humans with a weapon. With the occasional dragon or horse. Even if it was for a newcomer, my score would remain the same.

And Fire Emblem just doesn't warrant having it's own line of Assist trophy. Pokemon is the only one that does that.

Nominate Daroach x10 or whatever I can at the moment

Tetra prediction 14%
 
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Roberk

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Question: Is this an Assist Trophy item like Pokeball/Breidablik just with Kiran using the Breidablik to summon, or is this a full-fledged newcomer that summons/controls multiple characters?
 
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AlphaSSB

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Fire Emblem Hero Summoner

Chance: 1% - Always a chance

Want: 0% - I have no interest in adding even more Fire Emblem characters.

Nominations: Deconfirmed Character DLC x10
 

PapillonXtreme

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Fire Emblem Heroes Summoner (Kiran)

Chance: 0.0001%
If Lyn was once again an Assist Trophy, then there's no way in hell that Kiran's going to make it, even if FEH is that popular. If we were going to get someone from Heroes, I would rather have Anna or Fjorm over Kiran in Smash.

Want: 5%
At first glance, Kiran may seem unique due to the fact that he's using a gun that can summon characters from the Fire Emblem series, but that's about it. There's nothing more special about him. Like I said, Anna or Fjorm would be more interesting to see in Smash than Kiran.

Nominations:
Saber (Fate/stay night) x10
 
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BlueMagician

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Ekura / Kiran / FEH Summoner

Chance: 2%
I wouldn't be surprised to see FEH content in Ultimate but I don't think the Summoner is it. Actually, it seems like it'd be a lot of work to make a bunch of moving models just to shove it into one slot.

Want: 5%
I would rather have someone like Tiki as a new FE rep. I don't really see the Summoner as the main draw of FEH, anyway.

Nominations:
Viridi x 10

Prediction
Tetra: 19.5%
 
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Kiran

Chance: 5%
The concept is pretty out there, so it's very possible to be something Sakurai will never consider.

Want: 75%
It's one of those ideas crazy enough to work. The concept reminds me of how Yugi from Yu-Gi-Oh was handled in Jump Superstars in which the attacks are all summoned characters to strike in place of the player character fighting directly. I can get behind something like that, but there are FE characters that a) have a more realistic chance to get in and b) I have more attachment to.
 
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Are we rating this guy as an necomer or as an item? I just discovered yesterday that this is an actual character when I thought it was some sort of artifact.

As an Newcomer
Chance: 0.000001
I can't imagine FE Heroes fitting the timing. Even if it does, desiging a moveset kinda sounds like a pain to me, that is if he'd also fight by himself. If he would be the Fire Emblem version of :ultpokemontrainer:then that would basically add atleast three FE newcomers to the roster. With nobody being cut from Sm4sh and Sakurai's opinion on the amount of FE characters in Smash around the time of the project plan, Hell will probably freeze over before that would happen.

Want: 0%
I don't want anymore FE characters, let alone an FE character based around summoning even more FE characters.

As an Pokeball like item
Chance: 0%
It's straight up disconfirmed, since Lyn remains an Assist Trophy.

Want: 50%
On the plusside, this would deconfirm dozens of FE characters, the rest aside I probably wouldn't care.

Tetra: 5.29%

Canon Bowser/DK/Diddy voices x10
 
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