Rate Their Chances- Smash Ultimate Day 330 - Adeleine (Kirby)

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Geno definitely placed much higher than Isaac in the ballot, though. Like, why should Isaac get in over Geno is Sakurai himself likes Geno and Geno had a better ballot placement?
Who knows? Maybe they’re both in. Maybe Isaac gets priority because he’s from an unrepresented IP (maybe Geno gets priority because he’s from an existing IP). Maybe Isaac gets priority because he’s more recent, or because he’s been in three games, or because he’s been a protagonist. Why did R.O.B. get in over them? For a lot of reasons. It’s never so crystal clear.

In fandom, fanart and online presence, Midna compeltely eclipses the entire Golden Sun franchise. You can go to Pixiv, DeviantArt, wherever you want.
You’re missing your own point. You said Geno must have placed high on the ballot because he got his own costume, but there are many characters that also placed highly and didn’t get costumes, and characters that placed low and got them anyways.

I’m not going to respond anymore, though. You don’t seem to be staying within one same line of reasoning, and this has gone on a pointless tangent. My point was ‘X didn’t get in, so Y can’t either’ is flawed reasoning, so take it or leave it.
 

PeridotGX

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Quick and Nimble Kong

Chance - 60%. Relevant, and presumably did OK in the ballot. Diddy is losing his tail attacks, so she could even work as an echo

Want: abstain. Indifferent

Issac (Sorry couldn't think of a bad joke)

Chance - 5%. He looks really unlikely, his series is dead and he probably didn't do amazing on the ballot. The only way I can see him getting in is if Camelot is surprised that Issac was above average on the ballot, made another Golden Sun, and Sakurai adds him as promotion in DLC.

Want: 35%. Mostly indifferent. The reason he's rated is because he looks like his moveset could be really unique.

Nominations: Octoling x5
 

Cosmic77

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Dixie Kong

Chance - 70%
(1) Popular
(2) Relevant
(3) Arguably more important to the DK franchise than K. Rool.

And for those reasons, I think Dixie is more likely than K. Rool. The croc is just too irrelevant to his series for me to think he's any more likely than someone who's just as important and has the relevancy he lacks.

Want - 80%
She'd be a welcome addition.

Issac

Chance - 5%
It's not like his absence in Smash 4 was a good thing.


Want - 0%
I'm not saying this guy wouldn't be unique, but he's too obscure for my liking. I'd rather get someone more well-known.
 

Louie G.

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Aw man, I missed Dee? I probably would have given him around a 30%, I'm not overly confident in him but he's still got a shot, heavily tied down by Sakurai's bias toward Kirby games he himself produced (the only truly genuine Sakurai bias, imo) but with a Galacta Knight skin for MK and a Masked Dedede Final Smash... Who knows anymore? Here's hoping.

Dixie Kong
Chance: 50%
She's got a good shot! I would love to see two DK characters and I think it's a pretty valid possibility, given the demand for both K. Rool and Dixie Kong plus the fact that Dixie Kong would probably be a pretty easy character to develop off of Diddy. I don't think she should be an echo character, moreso the Luigi to Diddy's Mario, but as Sakurai has stated in the past a character like Wolf, who has a mostly unique moveset but is built off of Fox, takes 75% of the development time of a normal character. Given the limited space for newcomers I could see him adding more characters like that to make things just a little easier. Clone or not, I think Dixie has a fair chance. I'm very confident in K. Rool though, so if it's one or the other it's gotta be him, arguably the most wanted newcomer worldwide. But again, I think both are possible so I'm open to the possibility of Dixie and K. Rool joining the battle together. Keeping my prediction at a safe 50% though, just because we really don't have that much to go off of and I wouldn't say I'm as confident in Dixie as I am a good number of other potential newcomers. Oh yeah, worth mentioning that she was planned for Brawl too, always reassuring to remember that Sakurai had already thought of her long ago, but the question is whether he thinks she warrants inclusion outside of the original tag team mechanic.

Want: 80%
I do want Dixie Kong a lot, I worry about her being too cloney with the introduction of "echo characters" and her name being tossed around quite a lot. She deserves a mostly original moveset using her ponytail, and if she doesn't get that my want for her decreases substantially. Regardless I'd be pretty glad to see her anyway, she's got everything going for her and I think it's about time. I just don't want her getting in the way of a certain fat croc, you get me?

Isaac
Chance: 5%
I'll start with the positive, yeah Isaac has a surprisingly sizable and dedicated following that voted for him on the Ballot. That being said it trails far behind a number of other popular character picks and doesn't spread far beyond a few places like here. Golden Sun is dead in the water, Isaac's AT was removed from Brawl along with Ray which is super unfortunate, there's a limited pool of newcomers this time around and far more relevant series to pull from. He really doesn't have a lot going for him and the fact that he was left behind as an AT from Brawl to Smash 4, while it's the obvious point to make, really does him zero favors. I wish I could say more positive things about him but honestly his chances are next to none in my eyes.

Want: 50%
I'd be pretty happy for his fans. At this point he doesn't really excite me and I think there are more important series that should be represented first, but I suppose for a lot of people it would stand as another victory for the community and that would be a pretty nice thing.

Chorus Kids x5
 

Arcanir

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Dixie Kong
Chance: 50%
She has a very good shot. She's popular as generally she's just behind Donkey and Diddy in terms of that. She's very notable in her franchise having been the protagonist of one game in the main trio, a secondary one of another and notable in other games and media, and she just made a comeback with Tropical Freeze, which would be on the radar since it was one of the games that missed Smash 4. The only potential issue she has is that she may not be immediately as interesting compared to other characters, and her popularity is weaker among the online fanbase, but both of those issues are not ones I think would really hold her back. She hits all the marks that people look for in a newcomer and I can easily see them carry her into the roster.

Want: 80%
I do prefer K. Rool, but I still like the character and I would like to see her become playable. In DKC2, she has a charm to her that makes her enjoyable and fun to play, and I'd love to see that be brought into Smash.

Isaac
Chance: 5%
His lack of appearances for over half a decade and the removal of his AT is definitely not good. He does have good online popularity, but compared to other characters like Ashley it does seem to be weaker, or at least it's not getting as much of an official response like what happened with her and Badge Academy. Due to that, I'm not too sure he'll be able to make the jump to playable this go around, though there is a chance if his ballot support was stronger then what's apparent.

Want: 55%
I don't mind either way, though I would like to see him for his fans.

Nomination: Monster Hunter Character x5
 

Icedragonadam

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Dixie Kong

Chance: 50%

Want: 20%

Popular character in the Domkey Kong series. She seems like one of the likely candidates as an Echo Fighter

Isaac

Chance: 4%
Want: 10%

He's dead in the water. It's too late for his inclusion and with GS more or less dead and the fact he was removed as an assist trophy does not bold well for him.

Lloyd Irving x5
 

Skyblade12

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Geno definitely placed much higher than Isaac in the ballot, though. Like, why should Isaac get in over Geno is Sakurai himself likes Geno and Geno had a better ballot placement?



In fandom, fanart and online presence, Midna compeltely eclipses the entire Golden Sun franchise. You can go to Pixiv, DeviantArt, wherever you want.


You're aware that Barbara's wig, which wasn't a full outfit, was available from the start, right?
Oh, shoot. We have someone who’s actually seen the ballot results. Quickly, sir, tell us who the top 20 ballot choices are, because the community has been wondering for years.

Otherwise, you can take your unsourced “Geno definitely did better”, and shove it.

Geno got a costume because Sakurai approached Square for Cloud, and asked specifically for a Geno costume as well. In case you missed it, we got a lot of costumes from third party companies, especially ones who got DLC in the game, because it’s easy to pick them up when they’re already negotiating.

Sakurai considered putting Geno in the game, sure. He also did the same thing for Takamaru. What about the Forbidden Seven?

Now, I’m not saying that Isaac is going to get in. I consider it just barely a likely possibility. But claiming insider knowledge of the ballot (over the dozens, if not hundreds, of fan polls done) and professing that Sakurai will clearly prioritize a particular character against past evidence is just wrong.
 
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Koopaul

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The Best Kong next to Donkey

Chance: 75%
Yeah I'm confident we'll be getting Dixie and K. Rool this time around. Dixie will probably be a clone and not an echo.

Want: 100%
She's one of the most important characters in the series.

Isaac
Chance: 4%
His chances ride on the ballot alone and considering he's got so much competition on the ballot...
Want: 20%
He'd be fun to play as for sure. But I was never into Golden Sun.
 

CometX-ing

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Dixie Kong and Isaac
Chances: 80% & 5%

Dixie easily has the best chance of any DK character. I am certain the only reason she wasn't in Smash 4 was because DKCR only starred Donkey Kong and Diddy, but with her appearance in Tropical Freeze there's no reason she wouldn't get in if DK got a new representative. She's more relevant than K.Rool, more and more popular than Cranky possibly even just as popular as K.Rool. Also her appearance in the original DKC Tropical Freeze means she isn't as late as Funky. She can either get in as an original character, or worst case as a semi clone or Echo fighter, the latter being the least likely.

Isaac on the other hand has basically nothing going for him. His trophy was removed in 4 so any notion that it's absence in Ultimate means he is possible go out the window. He's not relevant, and I doubt he's as popular as people think he is. His chances are pretty low.
Want: Abstain
I have no opinion on really any of these characters, their inclusion of lack there of really doesn't interest me all that much. A new DK rep would be nice though.
Nominations:
Primarina x5
 
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Dixie Kong:
Chance: 90%
DK fanbase are outcrying, Sakurai considered her before, she's relevant, she's the tritagonist of Donkey Kong Country even getting her own damn game and with Diddy losing his tail attacks(which is news), I feel Dixie is assured.

I also don't subscribe to the notion K. Rool is more likely because fans want him to be. Not seeing it.

Want: 100%
Maybe a little less than Captain Toad and Dee, but Dixie is a comfortable third place for me and the most likely of the most wanted at this point.

Isaac
Chance: 5%
Golden Sun is dead. It's not very memorable either and although Isaac has a metric ton of move set options, he's far from likely to make it as a newcomer.

However if Sakurai wishes to include a 'new' series through a character (that's new to Smash not in general) then Isaac has the best shot out of everyone not called Spring Man.

Want: 80%
He'd be very cool and he's my sisters number one favourite from her childhood.

Nomination: Slippy Toad x5
 

Maplejr.

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Dixie

Chance: 60%
I believe we are overdue for another DK rep, and she is the most likely one as of right now. It's possible that she would be an echo fighter of Diddy, but who knows.

Want: 50%
I definitely want a newcomer from the DK series, but would prefer K. Rool. Wouldn't be mad if she is chosen over him though.

Isaac

Chance: 5%
I feel like his chances are near impossible now. With Sakurai claiming that we won't be getting too many characters this time around, his chances are incredibly low as I doubt that he would be included over other more likely candidates.

Want: 15%
While he may be fun to play as, I never got interested in the golden sun games or his character.

Nominations: Nia x5
 
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AquaSol

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Dixie Kong is probably getting in because King K. Rool is. I know it sounds strange, but I really do think so. I truly believe that K. Rool has a serious chance given his popularity, the Mii Costume, and Sakurai's E3 comment about fan demand. However, I highly doubt that Sakurai would add him and not Dixie Kong. It would be weird to have K. Rool without her. She is way more relevant and has a ton of fans as well. Factor in this, the general outcry for more DK content, and the fact that she can be a semi-clone (or echo at worst), and I think that she's a real contender. I don't have much to say about Isaac, but his chances don't seem all too great.

Predictions: Dixie Kong @ 80%, Isaac @ 15%
Want: Dixie Kong @ 90%. She is the last remaining Nintendo All-Star after Inkling and Ridley got in (in my opinion).
 
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Dixie Kong:

Chance: 68% she seems more likely than not any way, but it's plausible that K Rool gets in and not her, or that Sakurai just doesn't feel like adding another DK rep. She'd probably be a semi-clone of Diddy at most and an echo at worst, but that improves her chances because it means she's not hard to add.

Want: 40% I don't care about Dixie Kong and wouldn't use her, but I do think DK should get another rep.

Isaac:

Chance: 6% I mean, it's not like we never had RPG characters from games that haven't had an installment in a while before. I mean, we have them right now. But for Isaac to get in he'd either have to do really well on the ballot or somehow peak Sakurai's interest/fulfill some archetype Sakurai wants to add, which doesn't seem particularly likely

Want: 40% I mean, I never played Golden Sun but he seems cool so I wouldn't mind him

Nomination: Thwomp x5
 
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Dixie Kong

Chance: 60%
(Previous Score: 50%)


She's in a good spot. She's relevant, she's popular, she's from a series a lot of people want a new character for. At this point DK's probably going to get someone new and she has the best shot. Could help that she can easily share some things with Diddy, even if a full echo wouldn't be the most fitting (and while I doubt its impossible it really wouldn't be the best for her). The main reason I can't rank her higher is because there is other competition for DK, but I don't necessarily think it's completely impossible for two to sneak in. Maybe not likely, but not impossible. Overall, I think she's more likely to be in than not this time around.

Want: 100%

I want King K. Rool slightly more. And I do mean slightly, she's right behind him as my second most wanted Nintendo character. She's my favorite kong and a character I know I would love playing as, Donkey Kong is one of my favorite Nintendo franchises, she's earned her spot, I'd really love to have her. Really I'd be absolutely thrilled with either of the major DK characters, but yeah in my perfect world both her and K. Rool manage to make it in as non-echo characters and also end up getting revealed in the same trailer. That would be a good day.

Isaac

Chance: 10%
(No change in score)


Brawl would have been the right time for him, now I think he's missed his opportunity. His series is currently dead, the GBA games were released over 15 years ago, and the last game was still 8 years ago and also wasn't as popular. The fact that he actually lost his representation last time really says something to me. His saving grace is that he probably did fine in the ballot. Even then I feel like other characters who also likely did well have more going for them. I'm just not seeing it.

Want: 100%

Cool character, lots of potential, series that I would like to see get a bit more love. As unlikely as I think he is, he's always been a choice I like.

Rayman prediction: 34.93%
Crash Bandicoot prediction: 21.62%


Nominations: Tails x5
 

Erimir

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I know it's no longer Bandana Dee's day but I wont' ignore this.
I'm not going to get into specifics about BWD, since BWD's day is over, but you're making arguments like this "such isn't a point against BWD, but look at [vastly more popular character/series]". The fact that the other character is vastly more popular doesn't mean that that aspect doesn't matter, it means they have other considerations that are much more important than those demerits. It is, like I said, treating vastly different characters/series as if they're otherwise equal when they are not. When there are several points against a character, it's not good arguing to say that each point individually can be overcome without considering whether the characters being compared have other significant differences!

I can't say "Krystal is a side character, but so is Rosalina" and "Star Fox doesn't have amazingly impressive sales, but neither does the Yoshi series" and so neither sales nor being a side character matters. Rosalina is a side character, but her games had high sales and were critical triumphs - unlike Krystal's games in both regards. The Yoshi games don't have a huge amount more sales than Star Fox, but Yoshi is the main character in them, unlike Krystal. Being a side character AND from a lower-selling series AND from less well-received games within the series - all at the same time - is a problem. Perhaps not coincidentally, Krystal is yet again not playable.

The other thing you're doing is attacking a straw man - like when I say "this does/doesn't make a character more likely" pretending that I said "this is irrelevant" or "this means a character has NO chance" ("sales aren't everything" does not mean "sales aren't important" which is what you pretend that I said). For example, to get on topic, the point I made about trophies is relevant to Isaac, who we're talking about today.
Well guess we should actually look at the trophy list from Smash 4 to look for newcomers after all. Sorry Geno. Sorry Isaac. You guys are out.
First of all, this is a silly thing to say, because it's not as if I've been handing out 0% scores to any character that didn't have a trophy in Smash 4. I very clearly didn't make this argument. I wasn't saying that a lack of trophy means a character has no chance. But absent extenuating circumstances, yes, I view that as a point against a character. But a point against doesn't mean "no chance". That is an obvious misrepresentation being used to dismiss as unimportant the fact that certain desired characters didn't get trophies when there's a greater chance they would have if they were important/popular/etc. enough to become playable.

So for Rosalina, I was pointing out that Rosalina not being a trophy in Brawl didn't have much relevance to her chances for Smash 4 because Mario Galaxy came out too late to have any content in Brawl. Mario Galaxy was expected to be a big deal - it was a major, prestige title (one of the best reviewed video games of all time) and it sold like one. It would be silly to suggest that Galaxy received no content in Brawl (no music, no stages, no stickers, no trophies) because it wasn't important enough. It's obvious it was just about timing. So if I say that a lack of a trophy is a point against a character, Rosalina is not a good counterexample.

For Geno, the fact that he is a third-party is an extenuating circumstance for why he did not get any representation in Smash until Smash 4 DLC. It is no coincidence that when Cloud became playable, Geno simultaneously got a Mii costume - because Nintendo was already working with Square at that point. And hey, Geno ain't playable yet anyway! So how can he be proof that X doesn't stop a character from being playable? So like with Rosalina, Geno is not a good counterexample that trophy representation is irrelevant, for multiple reasons.

Neither of those extenuating circumstances apply to Isaac (or many other characters who are not under discussion today). Isaac is 2nd party, and has been around for a long time. The last Golden Sun game (Dark Dawn) came out 4 years before Smash 4. And the original two Golden Sun games came out 13 years earlier. Isaac's lack of inclusion in Smash 4 is very much a valid thing to consider and significantly hurts his chances, IMO. It suggests Sakurai does not view him as especially important. It might've helped if he had gotten a DLC Mii costume, too, but that didn't happen.

Golden Sun did get an additional music track in SSB4, but Isaac was not only dropped as an Assist Trophy, but Golden Sun got no trophies whatsoever. This does not bode well for his inclusion. He would also be less unique as a fighter than in the pre-Brawl or pre-SSB4 period, since there are now more sword-using characters, including several with projectiles and magically-enhanced attacks. The most similar being Robin, who makes extensive use of elemental magic in addition to a sword. Isaac could still be unique, of course, as a Venus adept his specialty is earth and plant-based magic, neither of which is used by any other swordfighter.

It's also worth noting that the Earthbound series is always a counterexample to show that a minor series with a cult following can get in - or even get two reps. But Sakurai seems to be a fan of Earthbound, and if he had a soft spot for Golden Sun, he probably would have at least given it a trophy or two.

But Isaac does have some decent enduring popularity, so he might've done ok on the ballot, although it seems he is significantly less popular in Japan than the US (not sure about Europe/elsewhere). But that's pretty much the only major thing he has going for him. But you know, Ridley. That might be enough.

Isaac chances: 9%
Isaac has some significant barriers - the series had declining sales across its three games, and Isaac was only the main character in the first one, and Sakurai cut Golden Sun content for Smash 4. But his enduring, albeit not massive, popularity could get him in in the name of fanservice.
Isaac want: 60%
I like the Golden Sun games, but he is a less unique idea than he was originally. There are several other characters I'd rather see. A point in his favor is that if he got in, maybe we'd see another Golden Sun sequel, which I would like.

Dixie Kong
As I've said before, I'm expecting at least one or two more echo fighters. And Dixie is an excellent candidate to be one, for multiple reasons.

1. Dixie Kong is a popular character, generally doing well in Smash polls, although significantly less so than her DKC compatriot K Rool
2. Donkey Kong is a severely underrepresented series. The games have over 70 million in sales, and just the DKC subseries has over 34 million in sales. It's by far the largest series to have less than three reps. Her and K Rool's popularity in polls shows that those sales do translate to popularity and that DK fans do feel like their series' roster is not complete.
3. She has similar proportions to Diddy Kong, and having identical weight, speed, jump, etc. works perfectly fine for her.
4. Most of Diddy's moves work perfectly fine for her. His punches and kicks pose no problem at all, and neither do Monkey Flip, Banana Peel or Peanut Popgun. Peanut Popgun would be changed to Dixie's Gumball Popgun either as a purely aesthetic change or with slightly different properties. The main moves that demand changes are that Dixie doesn't have a tail, so if Diddy's tail is still used for anything that would need to change (it seems his tail jab combo has been changed) and to make her moveset really fit, you'd want to give her a helicopter-hair up-B recovery. Optionally, her grab and heavy item carry could utilize her hair, but I'm not sure how much change that would require (whether it could be purely aesthetic or not). Final Smash might need to be different too, but we don't know what Diddy's new FS is (presumably it's changed so that it "gets to the point").

But basically, only a couple moves require changes, and so she would work quite well as an Echo Fighter much like Dark Pit, with 2 or 3 altered moves, but otherwise identical except for aesthetics. We don't know how many moves have to stay the same for an Echo Fighter, or if Sakurai will allow them to differ more than Lucina and Dark Pit did. All we know is that they should presumably be more similar than Mario/Dr Mario, Marth/Roy, etc.

Of course, Dixie also has potential as a more unique fighter, utilizing her hair more and other moves from the DKC games or spinoffs. But given how well she'd work as an Echo Fighter and the fact that K Rool could also be a unique newcomer and would NOT work as an Echo Fighter, she has a much better chance as an echo.

Dixie Kong chances: 46%
K Rool is the big problem here. I don't know if K Rool getting in as a unique character would affect her chances, but he has a lot higher demand for inclusion than she does. She is also competing against Funky, who would also be a plausible echo, and other Kongs. But K Rool and Dixie are by far the most likely DK reps. Fire Emblem shows that getting a unique newcomer (or two, with DLC :rolleyes:) and a clone is very possible. Nintendo is evidently continuing to support the series by rereleasing Tropical Freeze on Switch (a game which really didn't sell as well as it should have, given how good it was - perhaps held back by the Wii U's small user base). Given how popular she is and how perfectly she would work as a Diddy echo with only a handful of non-aesthetic changes, she has a lot going for her even if we see K Rool added.
Dixie Kong want: 85%
I'm a fan of the DKC games, and I like Dixie Kong. DKC2 was one of my favorite SNES games. While I don't want her as much as K Rool, I'd definitely be glad to see her even without him. I also appreciate increasing female representation in Smash.
 
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MasterWarlord

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Dixie Kong Chance - 75%: People see her and K. Rool as competitors, but even now it seems like K. Rool would get in alongside her in most scenarios, even with limited roster space. The one thing you can say against her is that even adhering entirely to the relevant advertisement policy, Dixie made no sense to not be added during DLC. What possible reason was she not added? K. Rool has more going in his favor now than he did then, while Dixie hasn't changed and didn't get in when it made the most sense. Her chances are still very high, I am just explaining why I feel she is lower than K. Rool. The fact Diddy's jab has been changed is very suspicious for semi-clone/echo material as well.

Dixie Kong Want - 10%: I don't like the character and the scenario where she gets in over K. Rool obviously displeases me, but after this long I would definitely have some happiness for her fans. The reason this want score is low is because I feel Cranky is more relevant to the series as a whole, and just isn't an entity because of not having the fanbase to back him up. He is in DKC1, Returns, and 64 while Dixie isn't, has prominent roles in the Paon games where Dixie only cameos, and has the plus of being arcade DK. I wish he was more acknowledged as a candidate by the fanbase, but Dixie's long running support has silenced him. It's sad his name is brought up less than even Funky.

Isaac Chance - 5%: This series seems pretty dead and buried. His assist trophy was removed from SSB4 with nothing to compensate for it either. He has to get in entirely off the ballot, and I personally just don't see it and think there's others that are ahead of him in line with limited roster space.

Isaac Want - 50%: His fanbase is really admirable and persevering. His games look good and his moveset would be entertaining. I would take him as an earth elementalist long before Lycanroc or, god forbid, Steve. Still, I haven't played his games. Consider this the highest score possible from me for a character I have no personal affiliation with, but I would really like to see his fans be happy.

Nominate Fawful x5
 
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Lord-Zero

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Dixie Kong

Chance: 9%
- She’s still popular but could get overshadowed by an obese king.
Want: 1%
- She’s not Cranky Kong.

Isaac

Chance: 2%
- Golden Sun has been dead for quite a while and all Dark Dawn did was...killing it.
Want: 5%
- He’s not Saturos. Mercury Lighthouse Aerie stage never, I guess.

Predictions
Rayman: 12%
Crash: 21%

Nominations
Katrielle Layton (Professor Layton) x4
Neptune (Neptunia Series) x1
 

Erimir

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Oh yeah, I didn't do nominations.

I just realized that I haven't heard much about this old leak with the Smash Run and Break the Targets screenshots. Do we have reason to think it was authentic or fake?

Either way...

Nominations
Smash Run x5
 

BirthNote

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Dixie Kong
Chance: 75%
She's in a favorable spot. Tropical Freeze is widely regarded as an excellent platformer and Dixie's the go-to Kong for most players. She also debuted in the most loved Rareware DKC, then starred in her own game right after, making her literally one of Nintendo's earliest female heroines. She's got franchise history, popularity and relevancy on her side, obviously 2/3 of those K. Rool boasts more of, but his absence works well for Dixie. The way things have played out, the Kong and the Kroc would get in for separate reasons: One from the Ballot and the other from Tropical Freeze. Her chances are good, but not no-brainer level for 2 reasons: Roster Space and Echo Material. I DO NOT THINK NOR WANT DIXIE TO BE AN ECHO; I'm not even crazy about her being a clone either. Ideally I'd take fully unique but a Wolf-Level clone is GREAT as well. There's so many possibilities with a 3-armed grappling chimp with helicopter hair and bubblegum guns, and trust me, I saw a few of them LOL

Want: 100%
I didn't participate and run the Dixie thread for nothin'! She is literally my MOST wanted character and I'd be BEYOND amazed if she makes it in. My order of preference with her is this:
Fully Unique > Wolf Level Clone > Luigi Level Clone > Assist Trophy > Nothing but a Trophy > Echo Fighter

Isaac
Abstained. I have no knowledge on him whatsoever.
 
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Isaac
Chance: 10% - I do still believe there is some small hope for him. I've seen some people speculate that the reason why his AT was cut in SSB4 was because he may have been shortlisted as a potential DLC candidate. I understand that this is just a theory with no concrete evidence, but I still find it suspicious that one of the most popular AT characters was cut for no apparent reason. I also believe he likely placed very high on the ballot.
Want: 60%

Dixie
Chance: 45% - She still seems to be one of the most likely newcomers. Between her appearance in Tropical Freeze and her status as one of Brawl's forbidden seven, she has a lot going for her.
Want: 80%

Nominations: Edelgard x5
 

Kitty-chan

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Dixie Kong

Chance: 85%
Opinion hasn't changed much nya. I think she is only very slightly more likelier than before due to the possibility she could be Diddy's echo nya.

Want: 75%
Opinion hasn't changed nya. I wanya see her, but of course I want the glorious king more nya.


Isaac

Chance: 15%
Was dropped as an assist trophy and just seems to have been forgotten by Nintendo nya. Unless they nyannonce a nyu Golden Sun game, I can't see it happening mew
Opinion hasn't changed nya. I'm nyot sure how popular Isaac really was on the ballot either mew.

Want: 65%
Never played a Golden Sun game before, but I've seen enough to think he'd be nyalright to be in the roster nya.
Opinion hasn't changed nya.


Nyominations
Tingle: x5
 
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Scamper52596

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Dixie Kong

Chance: 70%
I think her chances are very solid. With how much fans want more DK content in Smash, and with presumably both King K. Rool and Dixie performing well on the Ballot I believe we're likely to see them both get added this time around. Would be a pretty big missed opportunity if they didn't get added, especially since if they need to they can make Dixie an Echo Fighter to slip her in there. I'll give Dixie a solid chance score of 70%.
I'm feeling confident in seeing more Donkey Kong representation this time around...

Want: 60%
Same as King K. Rool, I really only want them because I think it's time to see extra Donkey Kong content get added into Smash. Plus, it would make a lot of fans really happy.


Isaac

Chance: 12%
As popular a request as Isaac is, I can't help but feel that he's more likely to make a return as an Assist Trophy. The Golden Sun franchise is still pretty dormant as of now just like it was when Brawl was being made. In between Brawl and Smash 4 there was a third game announced and released, which might be an explanation as to why his Assist Trophy was cut. Maybe they were thinking about making him playable, but for whatever reason it didn't happen. Now Golden Sun is on hiatus again, so it may not be worth the time to make Isaac playable to Sakurai. He's a very popular pick among the Smash community, but a very niche character overall. Coupled with the fact that his franchise has been put on hold again, unfortunately that sounds to me like Assist Trophy status, but we'll see. I'll give the main character of Golden Sun a small score of 12%.
Could be a surprise pick, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him as an Assist...

Want: 50%
I really don't care either way. He seems like a cool character that would fit in Smash, but I haven't played any of his games and don't really have an attachment to the character due to that. I definitely wouldn't mind seeing him playable though.

Nominations
Tetra x 5
 

PsychoIncarnate

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So I found the Japanese SG top 20 chart


And what ya know, Isaac IS on it. Didn't know that.

I'm not going to change my chances though. If it's low enough I round down. I don't like doing arbitrary %'s just to say "It's technically possible"

Edit: err...Top 19 I guess. What was wrong with the 20th person? I'm curious who that was now

Edit 2: It was Pichu
 
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DaUsername

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Dixie Kong
Chance: 65%
While the King is definitely the more popular choice, Dixie still has a lot going for her, too, like appearing in her series within the past decade. :(
But seriously, both DX and the Kaptain have valid reasons for being included, and I think they both have a decent shot at making it in.
Also, Dixie probably wouldn't be an echo fighter, those seem to be reserved for characters who could easily just be alt. costumes, but they decided to change some percentages and/or angles and made them a seperate character. And Dixie doesn't really fit that category.
Want: N/A

Abstaining from Isaac.

WHOA prediction: 3%
Rayman prediction: 10%
Noms: All stages return x5
 
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Eagle

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So I found the Japanese SG top 20 chart

And what ya know, Isaac IS on it. Didn't know that.

I'm not going to change my chances though. If it's low enough I round down. I don't like doing arbitrary %'s just to say "It's technically possible"

Edit: err...Top 19 I guess. What was wrong with the 20th person? I'm curious who that was now

Edit 2: It was Pichu
Who's the dude between Ice climbers and Snake and why are they so popular?
 

Skyblade12

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So I found the Japanese SG top 20 chart


And what ya know, Isaac IS on it. Didn't know that.

I'm not going to change my chances though. If it's low enough I round down. I don't like doing arbitrary %'s just to say "It's technically possible"

Edit: err...Top 19 I guess. What was wrong with the 20th person? I'm curious who that was now

Edit 2: It was Pichu
Who's higher than him in Japan?
K. Rool
Wolf - In
Roy - In
Bandana Dee
Inkling - In
Snake - In
Magalor
Ice Climbers - In
Geno
Paper Mario
Banjo and Kazooie
Krystal - Assist Trophy
Ashley
Jinbanyin
Dixie
Arle
Cloud - In
Isaac - YAY!
Bayonetta - In

So let’s look at this.
K. Rool is the closest thing to a lock we have left.
Bandana Dee has pretty good chances.
Magalor has no chance, if we get a Kirby rep, it’s Bandana Dee.
Geno seems unlikely, TBH. The main thing he had going for him was Sakurai, and we saw how that worked out for Takamaru.
Paper Mario still feels unlikely to me because of the Marios already on the roster, though he’d be fun.
Banjo and Kazooie have licensing issues.
Ashley has a reasonable shot.
Arle and Jinbanyin have no presence in the West (and Jin is now from a dying franchise).
Dixie also has a good shot.

So, by my assessment (I’ll be happy to read your own), that puts K. Rool, Bandana Dee, Ashley, and Dixie as Isaac’s only strong competition. And I’m not sure we’ll get two unique fighters from DK.

And remember, this was one of the polls he did worst in. In several he was up at the top, and he even beat K. Rool in one. So I think it’s fair to say he’s at least this high in popularity.

Eagle Eagle That’s Magalor. A former Kirby enemy turned sort of ally (happens all the time to Kirby’s foes).
 
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PsychoIncarnate

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Who's higher than him in Japan?
K. Rool
Wolf - In
Roy - In
Bandana Dee
Inkling - In
Snake - In
Magalor
Ice Climbers - In
Geno
Paper Mario
Banjo and Kazooie
Krystal - Assist Trophy
Ashley
Jinbanyin
Dixie
Arle
Cloud - In
Isaac - YAY!
Bayonetta - In

So let’s look at this.
K. Rool is the closest thing to a lock we have left.
Bandana Dee has pretty good chances.
Magalor has no chance, if we get a Kirby rep, it’s Bandana Dee.
Geno seems unlikely, TBH. The main thing he had going for him was Sakurai, and we saw how that worked out for Takamaru.
Paper Mario still feels unlikely to me because of the Marios already on the roster, though he’d be fun.
Banjo and Kazooie have licensing issues.
Ashley has a reasonable shot.
Arle and Jinbanyin have no presence in the West (and Jin is now from a dying franchise).
Dixie also has a good shot.

So, by my assessment (I’ll be happy to read your own), that puts K. Rool, Bandana Dee, Ashley, and Dixie as Isaac’s only strong competition. And I’m not sure we’ll get two unique fighters from DK.

And remember, this was one of the polls he did worst in. In several he was up at the top, and he even beat K. Rool in one. So I think it’s fair to say he’s at least this high in popularity.

Eagle Eagle That’s Magalor. A former Kirby enemy turned sort of ally (happens all the time to Kirby’s foes).
I think you guys vastly inflate his popularity. I mean, if he was really that popular his series wouldn't have failed. And he's got no other attributes going for him but his popularity
 

Eagle

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Magolor. He's from Kirby

He's like Marx but less cool.

He's the young kid's Marx
Eagle Eagle That’s Magalor. A former Kirby enemy turned sort of ally (happens all the time to Kirby’s foes).
I see. The power of friendship! I'm surprised he and Bandana Dee are so high. I knew Bandana Dee was popular, just not quite that much.
 

Skyblade12

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I think you guys vastly inflate his popularity. I mean, if he was really that popular his series wouldn't have failed. And he's got no other attributes going for him but his popularity
I put him in the order he placed in the poll.

Because this poll had him rated lower than most others, I said it was a reasonable conclusion to place him where this poll does, to help account for unavoidable data skewing inherent in polls that may have accounted for rating him higher than he may have been rated in the ballot.

So I’m saying his popularity is among the top 20.

How am I massively distorting his popularity?
 
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Isaac

Chance: 12%
As popular a request as Isaac is, I can't help but feel that he's more likely to make a return as an Assist Trophy. The Golden Sun franchise is still pretty dormant as of now just like it was when Brawl was being made. In between Brawl and Smash 4 there was a third game announced and released, which might be an explanation as to why his Assist Trophy was cut. Maybe they were thinking about making him playable, but for whatever reason it didn't happen. Now Golden Sun is on hiatus again, so it may not be worth the time to make Isaac playable to Sakurai. He's a very popular pick among the Smash community, but a very niche character overall. Coupled with the fact that his franchise has been put on hold again, unfortunately that sounds to me like Assist Trophy status, but we'll see. I'll give the main character of Golden Sun a small score of 12%.
Could be a surprise pick, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him as an Assist...
Thank you. You seem to be the only person who actually put some thought into Isaac's situation before rating him, and while it is a little sad that it didn't lead you to the conclusion that he seems likely I'm just so happy you didn't write him off like most people have done today.

I think you guys vastly inflate his popularity. I mean, if he was really that popular his series wouldn't have failed. And he's got no other attributes going for him but his popularity
That's incorrect first in 2010 RPGs weren't the big thing anymore and second DD had a lot of problems and even then it didn't do badly it just did under a million and the only game in the series to not break a million. He was very big during Smash 4 sure it's easy to say that he's not that popular now after Smash 4 left the fanbase deflated but back then his fans were at a huge peak
 
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PsychoIncarnate

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Edit: You know what, I don't even care what his chances are. He can get in, he can not. I'm not going to hate him for getting in.

But you, sir, offended me by saying Geno has no chances. And I cannot accept that insult without a fight.
 
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andimidna

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Isaac:
I’m still so confused what happened to this series’s representation. It just seems so counterproductive to not being any of it back when there’s so many obscure things represented and it seemed like people were asking for more Golden Sun representation if anything. The conspiracy theorist in me says that’s fishy, but the realist says the series is in the past. Honestly, I don’t know, and I can’t call it obvious either way, especially with his demand
Chance: 21%
Want: 70%
I wanted him more before. His magic sounds cool. His design and sword aren’t the rarest concept for a fighter these days, but his magic is cool and his fans seem cool too

Dixie Kong:
As a unique fighter, I’m seeing it less, but I’m seeing it as a clone a bit more. She was even in Brawl’s data with Diddy. Sakurai has thought about her and her connection to Diddy. The only reason I’m not sold on this echo fighter is the possibility of being a unique character carried over to DLC. It’s hard to see her not having any role at all again though, there’s just too few hard hitters left to ignore her, especially now that echoes are being marketed differently and DLC has precedence.
Chance: 58%
(18 unique, 40 clone)
One of the 5 characters I’d feel most sure about
Want: 80%
She’s been deserved a spot for awhile so it just looks weird without her

Predictions:
Rayman: 35.5%
Crash: 15%

x4 Hanafuda character
x1 Style Savvy character
 
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TCT~Phantom

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So some bad news guys, I have some computer trouble, I will try to redo calcs tomorrow since I think I fixed it but we will see.

Dixie

90% Chance

Easy echo or newcomer. Either makes sense. Imo the only franchises that can have two unique newcomers this time imo are Dk and Xenoblade.

80% Want

I want K. Rool first but I would love her. Tropical freeze is tight af.

Isaac

40% Chance

Tbh ballot saves him. Without ballot or fan service I would have him at 15%. But I feel that it is enough to save him.

100% Want

I feel for his fans. They deserve him or something at least, golden sun is fun.


Nominating smash run x 5

I’ll end the day around 10 AM EDT to give some more time for votes:
 

EricTheGamerman

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Two of my top 10 to rate today... good day for rating characters then.

Dixie Kong

Chance: 85%

Donkey Kong desperately needs new fighters, and Dixie Kong basically completes the trio of classic Kongs. She certainly is next in line when it comes to popularity, and her resurgence in Tropical Freeze can only help. I also imagine they can use assets from Diddy Kong if they really need to given she's very similar in terms of body type, so maybe she wouldn't require as much work as a traditional newcomer. She could be a great proper semi-clone of 95%if she can't earn a more unique role in the game. I don't want to see her as an Echo, but it's worth considering the possibility of it happening I suppose. I'd find that a little lame given she could have much more to work with but we'll see. The biggest negative against her being King K. Rool and his massive popularity perhaps overshadowing her and Sakurai deciding against putting two new DK characters in.

Want: 95%

Again, one of my top 10 wanted characters and the DKC trilogy is nothing but pure nostalgia and happiness for me. I'd ideally see her and King K. Rool both make it into this new Smash and I'd be content with DK representation forever going forward. I think she has a ton of potential as a unique character, and even as a semi-clone ala Wolf and Lucas. I love her character. That said, my want percentage would fall to about 70% in the event of her becoming an Echo fighter. I'd still be happy for her to be in... but she would deserve better.

Isaac

Chance: 70%

So Isaac remains in a bit of a weird place with chances I think. He is one of the bigger fan requests with a large crowd and good numbers in polls, but unlike a lot of other stuff in Smash that pulls on the obscure, Golden Sun is pretty much MIA since they removed his assist trophy. That always struck me as strange in the first place as to why he was removed (and gave more than a little false hope to me about his potential inclusion in 4.) Even if Sakurai is adding some of the bigger fan requests, I don't know how many fan "slots" are available so to speak. As much as some people are passionate about his inclusion, I also don't see him come up as often as some other big requests. I think now is the time for him to get in and I'm basing this high of a percentage on his loyal fans continuing to support him.

Want: 100%

He's one of my top five newcomers, I love Golden Sun, loved his assist trophy in Brawl, and think he has epic potential for a move set. Golden Sun finally getting proper acknowledgement in Smash would be a dream come true, and I've been convinced of his potential move set for some time. I'd love to see him make it in, and I'm far more hopeful than the 70% chance really implies.

Nominations? Not sure how these work exactly, but I'm putting them towards Geno and Ashley for future ratings if I correctly understand them?
 

B00M

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Isaac
Chance: 65%
Want: 100%
Could be wishful thinking as he's been my most-wanted character since Sonic was confirmed, but I think he's got a fairly good shot. Based on the limited polling info we have, he seems to have placed reasonably high on the ballot in all regions and has been a heavily requested character since before Brawl. He still consistently shows up on most-wanted lists around the net, and in this forum his support thread has the most replies behind only K. Rool, Krystal, and Bandana Dee for whatever that's worth. His AT being absent from the last game still seems really suspicious too - I just can't come up with any logical reason for its removal besides Isaac being considered for an upgrade to playable that didn't pan out. It'd be a shame if Golden Sun got passed over again because I literally can't think of any series with more moveset potential for its characters. Between artifact weapons that unleash spirits for critical hits, psynergy (elemental magic), djinni (tiny elemental creatures with special abilities), and powerful summons, the possibilities are endless. Plus scarves are cool!

Dixie
Chance: 70%
Want: 10%
Seems likely, but at the same time I could see them not wanting to add two Donkey Kong characters with limited new roster spots and I'm thinking K. Rool has the higher chance between the pair. The possibility of being a Diddy clone or echo push her up a decent bit in my mind. Nothing against her - I'd just personally prefer to see some more new franchises represented first.
 
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Dixie Kong chances: 35%
What I wrote last time we rated her:
Her place in modern DK seems likely to have been cemented with Tropical Freeze, which is good for her chances. I think she will be considered, but I could see her getting lower priority than other characters from other series.
I don't think her chances really have changed since last time. There have been mentions of her being an echo of Diddy, but I doubt it. While Diddy's new jab could fit her, I don't think there's a practical workaround for the up special which really doesn't fit her, not even reusing some animations would make sense for a different up B. There's also the fact it would deprive her of her hair attacks and the way I see it echo fighters are characters who wouldn't otherwise have a realistic chance of joining Smash and I don't see Dixie as such.

Dixie Kong want: 66%
What I wrote last time:
I personally would rather have K. Rool but I can't deny she's still make for a great addition.
Same as last time, she's not my personal preference but I see her as a deserving character I appreciate. I just don't want to see her as an echo of Diddy.

Isaac chances: 13%
What I wrote last time:
I'm not confident about Isaac, evidence seems to suggest that Golden Sun is not a priority for playable representation, with only an unlockable Assist Trophy and one remixed music in Brawl in spite of relative success during the Melee-to-Brawl era, and nothing but that returning said remixed music plus one ripped DS one in Smash 4. The lack of evidence pointing towards a foreseeable future combined with the series' apparent previous low priority when it comes to Smash consideration makes me doubtful. I think he scored decently in the ballot, so he might be considered at least, I'm just not confident that he'll be prioritized enough to actually make it.
I don't think his situation has changed, so I leave him the same score and my old comments still apply.

Isaac want: 61%
What I wrote last time:
I remember I bandwagoned him during about the last month of the Smash 3DS pre-release era with arguments like "moveset potential" and "we need a GBA rep". I found the idea so cool I even bought a cartridge of Golden Sun for the GBA. It was an enjoyable experience with pretty good gameplay, so he'd be a neat addition, but the fact I feel I was just a bandwagoner to support a character for Smash for reasons which I don't value too much as a big deal anymore plus the story not being too memorable (although I suppose I mostly have to blame the dialogue box format which I didn't really like) prevent me to go higher in want.
Pretty much the same as last time.

Rayman prediction: 30.88%
Crash prediction: 25.60%

Nominating:
Returning game mode: Smash Run x5
 
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