Rate Their Chances- Smash Ultimate Day 329: Velvet Crowe (Tales)

UtopianPoyzin

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Wait, they need a thread to be nominated? I've... kinda been nominating Professor Hector, just because I like the idea of a retro series like ROB getting two reps for it's series. If that's the case, I suppose you can replace him with "Retro Series getting Multiple reps" concept.
Thanks for the information, I missed that bit in the OP I guess.

tbh though those are just my joke suggestions, but I might make a thread for Lizalfos at least sometime since I'd actually like seeing them ingame, even if I don't really care too much.
It's all good; the nominations will still be counted for now; however, I would make a support thread as soon as possible. It was a very easy mistake to make.






188: Melmetal
189: Edelgard
190: Dixie Kong
191: Bandana Dee
192: Rex (& Pyra?)
193: Geno
194: Rayman
195: Banjo & Kazooie
196: Steve
197: Erdrick and Slime
198: Sora
199: Sans
200: Surprise :p
201: Shantae
202: Crash Bandicoot
203: Doomguy
204: Travis Touchdown
205: Dovakhiin
206: Celica
207: Lycanroc
208: Chibi Robo
209: Lip (Panel de Pon)
210: Ray MK III (Custom Robo)
211: Saki Amamiya (Sin & Punishment)
212: Paper Mario (Mario)
213: Captain Toad and Toad (Mario)
214: Professor Layton (Professor Layton)
215: Phoenix Wright (Ace Attorney)
216: Jibanyan (Yo-Kai Watch)
218: Lloyd Irving (Tales)
219: Heihachi (Tekken)
220: Leon Scott Kennedy (Resident Evil)
221: Character Alternate Costume as DLC
222: Barbara the Bat (Daigasso)
223: The Prince (Katamari)
224: Chorus Kids and Karate Joe (Rhythm Heaven)
225: Xurkitree (Pokemon)
226: Joker (Persona 5)
227: Master Chief (HALO)
228: 2B (NieR Automata)
229: Merric (Fire Emblem)
230: Quote (Cave Story)
231: Katalina (Granblue)
232: Tails Prower (Sonic)
233: Elma (Xenoblade)
234: Concept: Echo Fighter DLC (Not one of five in fighter pass)
235: Demille (Tomato Adventure)
236: Micaiah (Fire Emblem)
I have noticed people continue to nominate characters that are already on the list, so this will be the last time I paste in the schedule for the next days of rating to save people from losing their nominations for a silly reason.





Also, here is the rule about the support threads. If you want to change your noms for some reason, the day hasn't ended, so you still have time.
9. Starting 5/3/18, a character must have a support thread to be nominated. If you want to do a dumb character like Blue Bowser, then at least make a support thread.
 
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KeyOh

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Gex Rex

Chance: 2%
Like many have said, I don't see it happening with how the Mii costume is being handled. I don't think they would add the Mii costume as a part of the season pass only to make the character actual DLC later. I don't think he outright has zero chance of happening, as anything can happen. It would just be strange to make a costume of him a bonus for buying a package of all the DLC and then give people the option to buy him separately. He's better off than Spring Man is, at least.

Want: Abstain
Haven't gotten around to playing his game yet.

Bandana Dee

Chance: 40%
One of the only first parties that seems to have gone through the final reveals without being touched. It's possible he's a spirit and we just haven't seen him yet, but the fact that he hasn't been seen when a number of other popular characters have is odd. Just looking at how the content of this game turned out, it's hard to believe his presence on the ballot resulted in absolutely nothing at all. I have some trouble seeing him be chosen as DLC, though. He's not a big name third party and he probably wouldn't serve as promotion for an upcoming first party title. His inclusion would have to be riding off his relevance in the Kirby series and his popularity.

Want: 100%
He's still my most wanted character and I'll stick with him until he makes it in. There's plenty of reasons I want to see him and I'm dying to see it finally happen. At this point I just don't want to be left waiting until Smash 6 or whatever happens after this season of DLC ends. I'm staying hopeful until the very end but Nintendo handling DLC makes me a bit unsure of him being chosen.
 
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For what it’s worth, I’ve kind of been ignoring the rule about threads being a requirement because people will just go and make a thread if they really want to. I just ignore obvious joke noms.

TheCJBrine TheCJBrine Sorry to say, I would have given you the benefit of the doubt, but you pretty much confessed to those being joke noms, so aside from Lizalfos I won’t count them.
 
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Home W-Rex-er
Chance: 0.01%
Yeah, I don't think Rex would be in, because why would Rex also have a Mii costume in the same package that he would be playable in.

Want: Abstain
Haven't played Xenoblade 2 yet. Anybody recommend it?

Koopa with a Hat (Come on, Koopa are more iconic than Goombas people)
Chance: 55%
With the fact that seems like the only Nintendo character that hasn't been shown off in the game, I feel like his chances are big.

Want: 100%
YES.

Nominations
Decidueye x5
 
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Rex
Chance- 50%
Want-20%
I have no reason to believe that Mii fighters are deconfirmations but in the case of Rex I kind hope it is. Rex was easily my least favorite character and there are other Xenoblade 2 characters I'd much rather see namely Morag, Tora or Malos.

Bandana Dee
Chance- 75%
Want- 50%
Yeah sure why not, Fire Emblem Awakening doesn't need the same number of character slots as the entire Kirby series. And let's be honest the generic argument doesn't hold up anymore in the advent of Piranha Plant. I won't lose sleep if he's not in, but I won't be mad if he's in.

Nominations- Morag and Briggid x5
 
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Troykv

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Rex:

Chance: 1%

He essencially lives now in a limbo where only think that makes me non-impossible is what kind of implications the DLCs would actually have; at least he know he was considered very late in development, and don't make the cut (the only late non-echo character that made it is Incineroar as the interview showed)... He Mii Custome should be an ultimatum; but I have a feel of uneasy trying to actually give him a 0%

Want: 50%

I like the Blades; Rex himself is quite bland xD

Bandana Waddle Dee

Chance: 50%

Overall the little guy is surronded for weird circunstances that makes him one of the only "old-ish" Firsty Party Characters that would be considered likely choices for DLC; he's quite popular; he is one of the only popular Smash Choice that didn't appear in the Smash Presentations (and that ended up making the DLC being very promotional based one of the most likely outcomes)... also people really wants someone that uses Spears in Smash.

Want: 90%

I really like the Kirby Series; I would like to see my little boi coming to Smash :3

______

Predictions... Geno right? Right.

Geno: 36.7%

Nominations:

Kracko as a boss x10
 

Smasherfan88

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I think most people don't realize Rex in the DLC pass was most likely an excuse for the reasons why there's XBC2 content in the base game, as Nia herself has a Mii costume and of course everyone has spirits.

1. Spirits don't deconfirm anyone, we have spirits of playable fighters and seeming as spirits are just official art there's probably a LOT of them, it'd be stupid to put so many potential characters off the plate just because they're spirits.

2. Mii costumes don't deconfirm characters either, as Chrom still has his Mii costume and he's still playable (and a final smash, Chrom sure is a fan rule breaker isn't he?), wouldn't be surprised honestly if all costumes from Smash 4 returned either.

3. A misconception people are having, they think the DLC was decided alongside the initial planning of the game, it wasn't. All five characters were only recently picked after the direct, a few days after if I recall. Then also not making the cut for the base roster doesn't cut your chances either, if it did I'm pretty sure we wouldn't even have DLC to begin with. So Rex is still fair game.

So for Rex (with Pyra and Mythra to work as a reverse Pokémon trainer in my opinion).

I have a want score of 100%.

Then as a realistic chance of them getting in I give them a 80% as Sakurai himself also enjoyed XBC2 a lot and I honestly do think he wants Rex in as a fighter too as many fans want him as well (plus he's quite the popular choice for a newcomer) so if he was in the selection I'm sure Sakurai picked him. Also I think forget this is Sakurai we're talking about, the man said "ZSS won't be in Smash 4... JK LOL SHES IN!" during the smash 4 reveal days.

While I don't feel the need to go in-depth for Bandana Waddle Dee... I do really think it's odd he missed out on Smash 4 and he isn't playable in the base roster, if he isn't a DLC fighter it'd just seem... wrong and weird.

So for a personal want I have Bandana Dee at a 100%.

Then for a realistic chance I think he's got a good 95% chance of getting in.
 
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Also I think forget this is Sakurai we're talking about, the man said "ZSS won't be in Smash 4... JK LOL SHES IN!" during the smash 4 reveal days.
That "fake-out" only lasted a couple seconds. This is an incredibly false equivalence.
I know you like Rex, but I suggest you don't get your hopes up. The chances of Sakurai saying "SIKE" and adding Rex as DLC at this point are incredibly slim.
 

AirMac1

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Rex
Chance:30%-Well to start, he has a Mii costume, but so does Chrom, then again, Chrom’s an echo, and the fanbase would be very angry if Rex was an echo. Also, Sakurai deconformed him, because the team didn’t have enough time. So his Mii costume is DLC. Still, he is wanted, so yeah. (Don’t question me!)

Want:Abstrain-Never played any Xenoblade, Ok! Just kidding!

Bandana Dee
Chance:78%-He has a pretty good chance, due to Nintendo choosing the DLC characters, and Nintendo might want to advertise Kirby Star Allies. Still, Kirby does already have 3 playable characters, and a Galacta Knight alt for Meta Knight.

Want:70%-I only played Robobot (unless you count the Kirby’s Adventure masterpiece demo), so I don’t know much about him. But I like to see people happy, and he might leave the door open for Marx.

Noms:9-volt x5
 

Troykv

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I think most people don't realize Rex in the DLC pass was most likely an excuse for the reasons why there's XBC2 content in the base game, as Nia herself has a Mii costume and of course everyone has spirits.

1. Spirits don't deconfirm anyone, we have spirits of playable fighters and seeming as spirits are just official art there's probably a LOT of them, it'd be stupid to put so many potential characters off the plate just because they're spirits.

2. Mii costumes don't deconfirm characters either, as Chrom still has his Mii costume and he's still playable (and a final smash, Chrom sure is a fan rule breaker isn't he?), wouldn't be surprised honestly if all costumes from Smash 4 returned either.

3. A misconception people are having, they think the DLC was decided alongside the initial planning of the game, it wasn't. All five characters were only recently picked after the direct, a few days after if I recall. Then also not making the cut for the base roster doesn't cut your chances either, if it did I'm pretty sure we wouldn't even have DLC to begin with. So Rex is still fair game.

So for Rex (with Pyra and Mythra to work as a reverse Pokémon trainer in my opinion).

I have a want score of 100%.

Then as a realistic chance of them getting in I give them a 80% as Sakurai himself also enjoyed XBC2 a lot and I honestly do think he wants Rex in as a fighter too as many fans want him as well (plus he's quite the popular choice for a newcomer) so if he was in the selection I'm sure Sakurai picked him. Also I think forget this is Sakurai we're talking about, the man said "ZSS won't be in Smash 4... JK LOL SHES IN!" during the smash 4 reveal days.
That is pretty much the reason why I can't give Rex a 0% despite looking overall unlikely to appear xD. He's still free the only "real" threats of disconfirmation (Assist Trophies/Bosses).
 
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Rex:

Chance: 5% - The way Sakurai talked about his Mii Costume, aswell as it being a Fighter's Pass bonus, does not bode well for him at all imo. Like, why would I want a Mii Costume of a character I'm going to get anyways? Why not just keep him under wraps until his big reveal? Might just be my own interpretation, but the way they presented it in the Direct basically came off as "Sorry, we know you want him, but he's not in".

Want: 0% - Not gonna lie, I'm not a fan at all, and it might have played into my interpretation of his situation. It's best I avoid specifics on this one though, for the sanity of this thread.

Bandana Dee:

Chance: 60% - As far as first party DLC options go Bandana Dee is pretty much at the forefront atm, basically every other major Nintendo request has some sort of role in the game, I honestly struggle to think of many other first party characters they could add at this point that would generate a lot of hype. It's also extremely suspicious how we haven't seen anything of him at all, I know he had zero presence in Smash 4, but with the way this game has tried to give every major fan request some sort of role (likely thanks to the ballot) it really does raise some eyebrows. This isn't some niche character we're talking about either, he likely had a very strong showing on the ballot, especially in Japan, so that he still lives today is quite remarkable. There are also a bunch of small things, like the Waddle Dee being gone from one of Dedede's victory poses, Kirby receiving a new AT that isn't him, and the Star Allies developers practically begging for him to get into Smash, things just seem to line up really well for him.

Want: 80% - It's the same rating I've always given him, although things have changed in that we know the fate of practically everyone I wanted more than him, so at this point he's a contender for my most wanted. He's probably not quite number one, but he's the only realistic character left that I'd really like.
 
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Sari

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Geno

Chance: 20%
Nintendo provided Sakurai the possible DLC choices. As a result I doubt we will see characters like Geno who are basically unknown to those outside of the Smash community. Geno however gets a small Geno boost in chance percent due to his insane popularity in the Smash fanbase and the fact that he even got a mii costume in SSB4.

Want: 5%
I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again: as someone who absolutely loved Super Mario RPG I just never got the appeal of Geno. He was the least interesting of Mario’s allies and I genuinely can’t remember anything about him aside from the whole forest maze sequence when you meet him. There are a ton of other Mario characters who deserve to be in Smash over him. I gave him a 5% in terms of want since it’d be nice for his fans to finally get him in Smash after so many years of requesting him. Otherwise I couldn’t care less about him

Banjo chance predictions: 32.11%

Nominations: Kat & Ana x10
 
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RandomAce

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This thread is still alive? Oof I’ll spoil in on some fun:

Rex and Pyra

Chance: 5%
For Season 1, yeah Rex’s chance are very minimal right now. With the way Sakurai placed Rex’s segment after him revealing their DLC plans and went onto explain Xenoblade 2 wasn’t available at the time to them for them to consider, Rex sadly isn’t going to show up...

Well for now at least. If anything, if there is a potential Season 2, yeah Rex is going to be at the for front.

Want: 80%
I really like Rex and Pyra, and they’re one of the few promotional “esque” that a lot of people really want as well so I’m all in.

Bandanna Waddle Dee:

Chance: 35%

I think people are going a little overboard with Bandanna Dee’s chances. Although the little guy has become pretty big in the modern era, there’s always the chance that Sakurai might not pick him over other 1st Party and 3rd Party characters for DLC.

Honestly, I don’t think Bandanna Dee is that likely to the point of being the top 1st Party contender. I mean, Elma is right up there with him and so far she seem to have a lot more concrete things backing her up as well.

Want: 50%
Bandanna Dee is really meh for me. I don’t really hate it, but I don’t like it either and I would sorta want other characters over him.
 
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Geno used Whirlwind

Chance: 15%
Had anyone asked me before Sakurai gave us a little more insight on DLC, I would've said Geno was a near lock. That player icon didn't even seem like too big an issue at first. But, like the very seasons occurring around us, everything must change. Sakurai would later tell us he wasn't the one picking the DLC, Nintendo was. Sure, Sakurai still had the final say on if it could be realized into a moveset... but Nintendo's word was the primary thing here. Suddenly, like the very stat boosts Geno gives out, his chances quickly went out. Alright, alright, that's a little harsh, I know, but I just don't know how much Nintendo as a whole cares about Geno. Sakurai was easier to gauge, he's gone on record advocating for him, and even getting a mii costume for him. Nintendo though... they don't tend to talk about him much. In a crossover with Square Enix content... twice, in Fortune Street and Mario Sports Mix, Geno failed to show up for either, even though they were Mario and Square Enix crossovers. I don't have as much faith in Nintendo choosing him as Sakurai. Then there's the player icon. Oh man, at first this seemed so innocent... but thinking about it more... I find myself asking, is it really? I've recently been pondering, why would they choose to show off this little, insignificant, player icon, in the direct, a direct that seemed hell bent (pardon the language) on deconfirming charcters from many a series? If Geno was realizable DLC, wouldn't it have been smarter to not show Geno at all, and then surprise the masses with a beautiful new render when his time came? Quite a shame really, because I honestly believed he was a lock before that direct, but maybe that was the Grinch whispering in our ears...

Want: 50%
I have some friends who want him, and after Piranha Plant, I'm ready to admit that any Mario character that's majorly requested, Waluigi, Geno, etc, is a better choice for DLC. But to be honest, I was never too keen on Geno. Sorry fans of him, but one game where he wasn't even the star (err, OK, technically he was a star in a way), just didn't bode well with me. Though again, my opinion has somewhat changed. I recognize that quite a few would be interested to see him, and... maybe if I played SMRPG, I'd be more OK with him too.
"Uh, if you never played SMRPG, shouldn't you Abstain?"
Uh... er... well... I played Mario and Luigi: Superstar Saga!
1542428319722.jpeg

That... that counts. Right? Right?
Uh, anyways, at the end of the day, I like to think I've become neutral towards him. Not the first Mario character I'd pick (that'd probably be Toad, either Captain or normal), but I've grown to see his merits nonetheless.

Banjo predictions: 21%, the man of blocks is gonna eat him alive, I'm afraid. Beware the ides of Ender Steve

Nominations: x5 to Professor Hector (unless this is a x10 day, then x10 to him)
 
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Geno Whorl:

Chance: 45% - There are other Square Enix characters that may join the roster instead of him, such as Sora, another FF character, Dragon Quest, and maybe even Gex :p, so I'm not sure. However, with Nintendo seeming to have not forgotten about him due to their tweet about SMRPG (they asked people if they were Team Mallow or Team Geno), Sakurai wanting him and recognizing that he's really popular and that he gets a lot of votes and requests, and him not being as much of an extreme "literally who" as people say (the original SNES game sold around 2.13 million, and then we have Virtual Console sales whatever they are, plus a good chunk of people who bought the SNES Classic may have played SMRPG), I think he has a good chance.

Want: 100% - I have yet to play SMRPG, but I plan to on an SNES Classic, as it seems like a nice, cool game. Despite not playing it yet, Geno's design and what I've read about his character already make me like him.

Predictions:

Banjo-Kazooie 50% - If Vergeben is right yet again, it's either everyone's favorite duo (sorry Icies my mains) or everyone's favorite blockhead.

Nominations:

Ninten x5
Creeper x5
 
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A friendly reminder that today you get 10 noms. And another one to follow the ‘two sentences per score’ rule.

50-25

Arle Nadja x40
Boss: Kracko x40
Grovyle x35
Concept: Gen 8 Pokemon x30
Concept: All DLC will be third-party x30
Rhythm Girl x25
Concept: Stages outside Fighter Pass x25
Nero Claudius (Fate) x25

Under 25

Concept: CGI trailers for newcomers (barring Piranha Plant) x20
Concept: All DLC will be first-party x20
Concept: More DLC x20
Kat & Ana x20
Lora (Xenoblade) x20
Concept: No fan favorite/highly requested characters x20
Impa x17
Concept: Third-party character from unrepped Company x15
Reaper (Overwatch) x15
Professor Hector x15
Mach Rider x15
Frisk x10
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x10
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei rep x10
Thrall (Warcraft) x10
Hollow Knight x10
9-Volt x10
Decidueye x5
Blacephalon x5
Andy (Advance Wars) x5
Hector (Fire Emblem) x5
Papyrus x5
Creeper x5
Lizalfos x3
Toon Zelda x3

Grovyle, Gen 8 Pokémon, Rhythm Girl, Kracko as a boss, Stages outside the Fighter Pass, All third-party DLC and Nero Claudius cross 25 noms.

Today’s newcomers are Hollow Knight with 10 noms, and Andy, Hector and Papyrus with 5 each.
 

aarchak

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Geno

Chance: 5%
I doubt they're going to go to Square Enix to get this character, considering they couldn't even get more songs from FF7. It's quite the change from what I thought of his chances for base a few months ago, where I thought he was the only highly likely pick. However, with the information we know of how the DLC is being decided, I doubt his chances. However, Geno has insane fan demand, and he seems like a good pick for meeting that demand.
Want: 30%
I care little for Geno in and of himself, but I would be very happy for his fans if he got in. He'll also bring SMRPG music, which is always a plus.

Nominations
Lora x10
 
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Sigran101

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Geno:
Chance- 50%
I think he is likely for many reasons. The Mii costume is significant, and I think Nintendo knows it's important to let the core fanbase know there's more for them coming, as the first dlc sets a precedent and they will be the main ones buying the dlc. On the other hand, he's got stiff competition. Sora and dq shouldn't be counted out.

Want: 100%
He's one of my most wanted characters. I just played Mario RPG this year and I fell in love with it.

I nominate Persona 5 Joker x 10.
 
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Geno

Now, as incredibly popular characters go, he’s probably got the best shot, given he’s appeared in basically zero capacity. Although, I am expecting there to be a Spirit for him (that icon would be bizarre if it were only that), and if his Mii Costume comes back things might get wonky.

The reason I think he has the best shot is because he’s third-party, and I’m expecting all third-parties. However, he also has the most competition, including the increasingly popular and very good promotional pick Sora, the hugely successful and popular (in Japan) Dragon Quest series (and Slime is definitely in the running if ****ing Piranha Plant was), the dark horse picks Neku (who works as advertising for a recent port and a sequel has been hinted at) and Crono (for that hardcore gamer cred, and maybe a sequel please?), and the low but non-zero possibility of a second FF rep (Terra, Cecil, Noctis, Chocobo, Sephiroth, Tifa, Zack, or my boy Zidane, most of whom work for the upcoming ports and are videogame legends in their own right).

Damn, that’s a competitive category.

Want: 100%
Jesus, there are so many huge fandom picks unfulfilled. Why the **** did they even hold a ballot? They should have just given Ultimate one or two more years of development and included all the characters and modes it feels like it’s missing.

Nominations: Mach Rider x10

I nominate Persona 5 Joker x 10.
You don’t need to clarify, I know there’s only one real Joker.
 
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Pinocchio of Road Repairment

Chance: 25%. Something tells me that Square Enix has their eyes on a Dragon Quest character [Slime, but Erdrick has to be discussed at least a little], even if it would be directly at the expense of Geno. This assumes that Spirits aren't disconfirmations, and that Geno's profile icon isn't a Spirit even if Spirits, hypothetically, did disconfirm characters. And then there's Sora, who is a massive, massive roadblock in that they both have the fandom, but only one of them gets to be the star of a massive franchise that crosses over two other epic titans in gaming and general history. Out of context, Geno would have a 99% Chance, since Vergeben said Square Char and we're still waiting on that guy.

Want: 70%. He's pretty cool, I like his game a lot, a lot of basic reasons. But perhaps more importantly, this is exactly the kind of thing to prove that anybody is viable. Geno's story would be that of overcoming the odds; that of a return to gaming in one of the most grand matters possible.

Banjo Prediction: 45% in a vacuum, 20% when Steve/Minecraft is taken into consideration. Bold is the number I actually mean.

Noms: Arle Nadja x 10. I'm putting all of my chips into Arle this time. [Also going to try and fail to keep her number 1, just for novelty's sake].
 
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PeridotGX

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Geno

Chance: 20%. He could happen, he's popular in the fanbase and has been mentioned by Sakurai. I jut don't know if the heavily rumored Square rep would just be a one off from an old Mario Spinoff. Doesn't seem smart ecinomically.

Want: abstain

Nominations: Grovyle x10
 

Artix

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Geno

Chance: 20%
I don't think we'll see Geno this time around, as much as I hate to admit it. With Nintendo planning the DLC, they would most likely pick someone from Square that would sell to the audience, such as Sora or a DQ character. Still, he is very popular among the Smash community and he certainly would be the forerunner of the DLC Fighters, but there's just too much competition for him, like the aforementioned Sora and a DQ character. What's worse is that DLC is not really a good place for Geno to be in for now, since it's mostly for promotional characters.

Want: 85%
I gotta admit, I really like Geno in Super Mario RPG. He's a cool character in that game and I wouldn't mind if they do somehow add him in the game. But given how DLC works, I don't think that's the case for Geno at all.

Nominations:
Nero Claudius (Fate) x10
 

Cetus

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Home W-Rex-er
Chance: 0.01%
Yeah, I don't think Rex would be in, because why would Rex also have a Mii costume in the same package that he would be playable in.

Want: Abstain
Haven't played Xenoblade 2 yet. Anybody recommend it?

Koopa with a Hat (Come on, Koopa are more iconic than Goombas people)
Chance: 55%
With the fact that seems like the only Nintendo character that hasn't been shown off in the game, I feel like his chances are big.

Want: 100%
YES.

Nominations
Decidueye x5
I'd certainly highly recommend Xenoblade 2. It does look like a typical anime RPG on the surface, but it's actually an amazingly immersive world with a cool story, fun characters, and a gripping but somewhat complicated battle system.
 
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A friendly reminder that today you get 10 noms. And another one to follow the ‘two sentences per score’ rule.

50-25

Arle Nadja x40
Boss: Kracko x40
Grovyle x35
Concept: Gen 8 Pokemon x30
Concept: All DLC will be third-party x30
Rhythm Girl x25
Concept: Stages outside Fighter Pass x25
Nero Claudius (Fate) x25

Under 25

Concept: CGI trailers for newcomers (barring Piranha Plant) x20
Concept: All DLC will be first-party x20
Concept: More DLC x20
Kat & Ana x20
Lora (Xenoblade) x20
Concept: No fan favorite/highly requested characters x20
Impa x17
Concept: Third-party character from unrepped Company x15
Reaper (Overwatch) x15
Professor Hector x15
Mach Rider x15
Frisk x10
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x10
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei rep x10
Thrall (Warcraft) x10
Hollow Knight x10
9-Volt x10
Decidueye x5
Blacephalon x5
Andy (Advance Wars) x5
Hector (Fire Emblem) x5
Papyrus x5
Creeper x5
Lizalfos x3
Toon Zelda x3

Grovyle, Gen 8 Pokémon, Rhythm Girl, Kracko as a boss, Stages outside the Fighter Pass, All third-party DLC and Nero Claudius cross 25 noms.

Today’s newcomers are Hollow Knight with 10 noms, and Andy, Hector and Papyrus with 5 each.
Predictions: Geno: 50%

Nominations: Reaper x10
GoodGrief741 GoodGrief741 you forgot my nominations from yesterday. Just thought I'd let you know.

(Geno's rating coming later this morning.)
 
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mbvswb

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Chance: 50%: Nintendo knows that he would be huge in the smash fandom. but not being in base roster killed his right to be called likely
want: 110%. I've wanted him since brawl and my favorite game series behind Smash is the Mario RPG games and hed be the best rep for it.
 
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I did not forget them, you didn’t give enough reasoning for Rex.
Isn't the rule at least 2 sentences? My reasoning contained 3 sentences, and I just marked them in my original post.
STEGOSAURUS
Chance: 1%
Want: 50%

(1) His Mii costume basically deconfirms him. (2) There's always that slight chance of him being in the 2nd fighters pass, but it's very unlikely. (3) Also, I've never been too interested in him being by himself without Pyra.

Predictions: Geno: 50%

Nominations: Reaper x10
 
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BlueMagician

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Blue Snufkin (I'm not sure why I thought that) Geno

Chance: 10%
Is it possible that Nintendo presented Sakurai with the chance to put in Geno? I think yes, as the possibility that Nintendo is concerned with fan request may exist. Still, if he wasn't a long time notable fan request he'd have lower chances. I also can't help but feel that he has quite a lot of competition. At least he has a feasible move options.

Want: 80%
He's a rare type of personality in the Mario universe who is guiding and sagely yet also completely capable of dealing out damage. But I guess I just want to see him get a real second chance, after all. Also, Geno Boost please.

BK Predict%: 10%

Noms: 10x to Concept: Assist Trophy becomes Fighter
 

SupriceSupplies

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Geno
Chance: 5%
All Geno’s got going for him is one of Verge’s thus far unfulfilled prediction (and he’s not the only one with this) and popularity within the hardcore smash community, and that Sakurai wants him in. Meanwhile, one BIG factor he’s got going against him is that Nintendo’s proposing characters this time around. And I think they’re going to look at the bigger picture with either Tomb Raider protagonist Lara Croft, Dragon Quest icon Slime or Erdrick, or recent remake’s protagonist Neku Sakuraba. Geno’s already in the game as a player icon (which I’m betting means he’s also a spirit), so I suppose the licensing is already (partially) done in that regard. Thing is, I just don’t think they’d reveal such a big name in the smash community as a player icon just to reveal him later as playable. Still, that 5% is there for a reason, so I’m not throwing it out of the window just yet.

Want: 0%
Not against him, but I have absolutely no desire to see him at all. His concept doesn’t interest me, even after watching some footage of his gameplay in SMRPG, and there are Square Enix characters I’d prefer to see (Slime, Neku) as well as Mario RPG characters (Paper Mario, Fawful, Mario&Luigi combo) as well as other Mario characters in general that I’d prefer over him. (King Boo, Captain Toad.)
 
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Stage 1: Denial
Chance: 0.1%
Sorry people but the fact that Nintendo chose who Sakurai was able to pick from basically killed his chances. It invalidates Sakurai wanting the puppet which was the biggest thing he had going for him. While I don't doubt the possibility of Nintendo looking at fan requests, I still don't see the stars alining for Geno. He's one of those characters who's well known with the hardcore Smash fandom but is a complete literally who to the casual audience. And this fact hurts him even more with the DLC being paid. He likely would sell poorly, atleast compared to the other DLC characters. There are no implications Nintendo would go for him and I don't think one tweet says otherwise. They'd also have to get Square on board on top of that and the possibility of Geno being picked as the second Square rep, if we get one, just keeps getting less likely to me. He has no future. Furthermore, he's already been spotted as an Spirit/Icon, which likely aren't gonna be fighters imo. Also, :ultpiranha: kinda fills the need for a Mario newcomer as the cherry on top. I don't see us getting two Mario characters as DLC. If we do, I'd see goddamn Waluigi being likelier at this point.


Want: 0%
This wouldn't be a character I'd want to spend money on. There are still so many characters I think deserve it more. I believe if Geno more than likely doesn't make it in again it would be time to let him retire from Smash speculation and put him to rest. It's obvious this game was his best shot at getting in and likely always will be and since there will be a long period between Ultimate and the next Smash game, Geno will just become more irrelevant and obscure to the casual audience.


Banjo: 18.96% (holdup, we skippin Rayman?)

CGI DLC trailers x10
Hollow Knight x5 (didn't use my extra 5 from yesterday)
 
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It's Geno.

Chance: 35%
I'll readily admit that Geno's chances for DLC aren't as good as they were for base roster. Things were lining up perfectly for him back then, and to tell you the truth, I'm still kind of baffled we've only seen him as an outdated render slapped on an Online token. But we all forgot to consider one key thing when we were speculating for base roster: Square Enix loves DLC. The only Smash content we've seen from those guys so far has been as DLC, and that content has stayed the exact same going into Ultimate's base game. (We haven't seen the Geno or Chocobo Mii Costumes yet, to my knowledge, but considering the Chrom'stume is still there, I'm willing to assume they'll all be returning.) Clearly, Square is the type of company who won't lift a muscle for anyone else unless they're paid to do it, particularly in DLC royalties. Really, the Square character (Squaracter?) was always gonna be DLC all along no matter who they are; we just failed to realize this.

Now, people have been calling Nintendo's involvement with DLC the death knell to Geno's chances (or those of any fan favorite, for that matter, as if Nintendo's the most tone-deaf company in the industry, even though their track record for DLC has actually been pretty solid recently) since we first learned of it, but in my opinion, that couldn't be further from the truth. True, Sakurbias is a big thing Geno had going for him that's now basically out of the picture, and vile corporate interests are now more likely to come into play (looking at you, Steve), but this news actually hurts Geno's competition a lot more than it hurts Geno himself. Think about it; if you're Nintendo, and you want a Square Enix character to join your flagship crossover series as DLC, would your first choice be a Dragon Quest character who would be scarcely recognized outside of Japan and would come with his/her own web of legal complications, including dealing with an exceedingly ****** composer who's obscenely overprotective of his own work to the point of giving MIDIs to the West instead of original tracks? I'd wager no. Would you jump for Sora, an admittedly iconic protagonist from a well-known series with a new title coming out... on every platform but your own, whose DLC royalties would also have to be split between two money-hungry companies instead of just one, on top of additional licensing fees? Closer, but I'd still say no. How about Geno, a character who is notoriously highly requested even among casual fans, has Nintendo roots, and would be by far the cheapest and easiest to license, especially considering he's already in the game as a Mii Costume/Online icon/Spirit? Now we're getting somewhere.

Yes, I did just try to prove that Geno is the most economically sound Square Enix character for Nintendo to choose, and I'll inevitably be laughed out of the room by a sizable portion of the fanbase for saying it, but when I look at his competition, that's just how I see things. I'm not writing off Sora or *insert Dragon Quest character here* as impossibilities, but I firmly believe that if Nintendo gets their way, they'll go for pretty much anyone but those two, especially the former. And they most certainly have not forgotten about Geno as much as people think they have; this year's tweet recognizing Super Mario RPG's 22nd anniversary is proof of this. Sure, companies can say anything to please the masses, but the fact that they directly namedropped Geno (and Mallow), a character they don't even own who hasn't seen any action in decades, is at the very least an indication that they know people still care about him.

Really, the whole situation regarding Geno is suspicious. If Sakurai really knew Geno just wasn't gonna happen, why wouldn't he at least give us an Assist Trophy as a sort of "I tried" statement, so we can at least have our guy in the game in some physical form if the powers that be really just won't let him be playable for some reason? It sure as hell beats just putting him in as a Spirit and calling it a day; for a character who's been consistently one of the most requested for over 10 years, a .jpeg is not a consolation prize. (And neither is a generic avatar wearing that character's clothes, for that matter.) I'm not gonna act a fool and say Geno's definitely coming, but either way, something stinks.

Want: 100%
Yep, it's this spiel again. Super Mario RPG was my first proper RPG (probably; my memories from back then are fuzzy), and for me, personally, the Geno for Smash movement has been less a vote for an "obscure party member from an RPG released 22 years ago" - *gag* - to be in a Smash Bros. game (though I certainly wouldn't still be here if I didn't love the idea) and more a plea to get that great game that introduced me and so many others to a genre we've come to adore the recognition it officially deserves. And if Geno doesn't get in as DLC, then frankly, nothing short of a full-scale revival of SMRPG as a series will be able to save him and I'm ready to accept that unfortunate reality should it come to pass.
Of course, ideally, Geno gets in, all the fans get their wish, and all the haters move on with their lives, as per usual. Seriously, how are people willing to complain about Geno being too niche when we literally had a Piranha Plant waved in front of our faces just a few weeks back?
 
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Geno
Chance: 1%
Never say never, but Geno's not happening. His only chance was Sakurai finally caving to the fan requests, but Nintendo picked the DLC candidates and there's just no way they'd go with a character who is over 20 years old, has only cameo'd since, and they don't even own. He may be surprisingly popular in core Smash fandom, but it's highly unlikely that kind of demand is actually very strong in Nintendo's eyes.

Want: 20%
I haven't played SMRPG so I have no attachment to the character, and I would overall be a little miffed to see a 3rd party side character from a 22-year-old game (with no relevant appearances since) get into Smash. But regardless, he does have a lot of fans requesting him for whatever reason, so I wouldn't really be mad about it.
 
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