Rate Their Chances- Smash Ultimate Day 329: Velvet Crowe (Tales)

BluePikmin11

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I think some people look too much at the franchise and not at the character.

Yes, Minecraft is a big series, but could you honestly tell me that Steve would be an exciting newcomer? Just because a franchise is successful doesn't mean it deserves a character over Banjo-Kazooie, who's inclusion means much more than Steve would. He was once considered just as much of a Nintendo character as Mario and Link. Banjo would have more meaning behind his inclusion, to bring him back to his home. Banjo is a huge part of Nintendo's legacy with Rare, to pass on him would be a crime.

I've actually played Halo unlike BK so I have more personal want for Chief but it'd be madness if he came before BK. His ballot popularity and connection to Nintendo without the baggage of having to deal with guns would make for a clear choice

Also Shovel Knight is in so the whole no western third parties allowed thing is kinda moot.
I think it is ridiculous to pretend that Master Chief's inclusion would have little meaning,

I also think it is ridiculous to pretend that simply using ballot popularity and the guns issues is all it would take for Sakurai to reject Chief when there is more to choosing newcomers than just those things, when the latter argument has been willing worked around by Sakurai before with Snake and Bayonetta.

Yeah, Chief likely performed less than Banjo in the ballot, but there is also a good chance that he might look into Microsoft and seriously considering his options, leading to a thought process that would make him choose the iconic mascot of Microsoft when he gets the opportunity to work with the company, like he did with Namco Bandai to Pac-Man for Smash 4:

https://sourcegaming.info/2015/06/26/800/

Pac-Man is perhaps Namco’s most iconic character, so Pac-Man should join the fray.

It’s a pretty logical train of thought for anyone who has been playing games for many years.
Between choosing the mascot and choosing a highly demanded character from Microsoft's smaller series, Chief could be considered the better payoff for Sakurai, considering Chief is an option most of the speculation does not consider (Steve and Banjo are the main talks when it comes to Microsoft characters) that would not only surprise many, but also garner more immense mainstream attention than Banjo, when such an addition is the mascot character from one of the biggest competitors in gaming. In my opinion, with that many pros Chief has, I think that scenario of Chief has a greater chance of happening.
 

link2702

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Getting some Rex/Pyra and Decidueye flashbacks with all these > 80% Geno scores. Been a while since I've done this, but I figured I'd toss in my opinion.

Geno

Chance: 40%
I've heard all the arguments. "Sakurai is choosing popular ballot characters!" "He had a Mii costume!" "Sakurai wants him!" "Did you hear what Verge said!?" Seems like people are only accounting the evidence that supports Geno.

Yes, Sakurai has stated that he's looking at the ballot, but does that automatically make Geno the lock that people act like he is? Shovel Knight was extremely popular during the ballot, and he's been disconfirmed. Then there's also Waluigi, Krystal, Bomberman, and possibly several others in the future who could get disconfirmed as well. You can't just look at Ridley and K. Rool, ignore all the other characters who didn't make the cut, and say, "Yep. Geno's guaranteed at this point."

He had a Mii costume. You know who else had a Mii costume? Ashley and Takamaru. Both are still an AT. You know who else had a Mii costume? Lloyd and Heihachi. Neither were very popular, but having a costume automatically increases their chances, right? People will bend this topic in whatever direction they want. If Geno's in, it was an obvious hint. If he's not, then it never meant anything and it was never taken seriously by anyone to begin with.

The "Sakurai wants him" comment is probably the most frequently used point to support Geno getting in Smash. All I'll say on this is that Geno can't possibly be the only character Sakurai would like to see in Smash. If he had told us about the dozens of other characters he would've liked to have gotten in Smash, I'm sure the comment about Geno would seem way less significant as people made it out to be.

And the last topic I want to highlight is Verge. All of his claims from April were correct, but nothing after that has come true yet. Personally, I feel like Verge is gonna have to once again prove himself to me before I can trust his sources. He's not wrong yet, but I'm not nearly as bold as some of the other people on this site. Even the huge Gematsu leak had some holes in it, and I wouldn't be surprised if Verge gets a few things wrong as well.

To sum everything up, I do think now is Geno's best chance of getting in, but I also think people are jumping the gun. There's a lot of shaky ground for the character, and I can't help but be a little bothered by how much people are willing to overlook. He's likely, but definitely not 80% likely.

Want: 10%
It'd be nice for the fans to get what they want.

Other than that, I have no other reason to want Geno. I played the game, I get his appeal, but I just don't understand why he should be in Smash over so many more iconic options. He's a sore thumb among sore thumbs, and I feel like a majority of his younger supporters are just piggybacking off what the older generation wants.

If Geno doesn't get in Ultimate, then we should put him to rest and move on to a different character. At least until he gets another game, whenever that may be.
You are (conveniently) forgetting one thing with your argument against geno due to the mii costume.

his was the only character costume to get a splash screen as if he was a real character reveal. That there alone makes him different from the other character costumes you mentioned. Sakurai seems to have more interest in this character than the others, and it gives the impression that he clearly wanted geno actually playable.


You're also only really taking each piece of evidence by itself, and not as the whole. When you look at things at the whole, it's pretty clear Geno's chances are far higher than some of the other characters you mention, such as, shovel knight.
 

Cosmic77

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You are (conveniently) forgetting one thing with your argument against geno due to the mii costume.

his was the only character costume to get a splash screen as if he was a real character reveal. That there alone makes him different from the other character costumes you mentioned. Sakurai seems to have more interest in this character than the others, and it gives the impression that he clearly wanted geno actually playable.
...And? Despite not having a splash screen, Inkling and K. Rool still got in Smash before Geno, didn't they?

Normally I encourage looking at the little details, but there's little to no substance in this theory. Even if Geno gets in Smash, how are you going to argue that the splash screen actually meant something when other already confirmed characters who had Mii costumes didn't? This is nothing but strawgrasping at an insignificant thing in order to make Geno stand out.

You're also only really taking each piece of evidence by itself, and not as the whole. When you look at things at the whole, it's pretty clear Geno's chances are far higher than some of the other characters you mention, such as, shovel knight.
Says who? Three years ago, people looked at the evidence as a whole and thought Wolf was the most likely character for Smash 4 DLC. Didn't happen. Three months ago, people looked at the bigger picture and thought Takamaru would be the new retro rep. Didn't happen. Before Verge, people would've laughed at you if you said Simon was more likely than Banjo, Bomberman, and Shovel Knight.

Opinions constantly change, and you can't get caught up in the current trend of things. What gets revealed in the upcoming Direct is probably going to cause opinions to shift once again, and I'm sure Geno will get effected, for better or worse. Following the popular opinions is only going to lead to greater disappointment if you end up being wrong. You have to step away from everyone else and look at both sides of the argument yourself.
 

Honest Slug

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I think it is ridiculous to pretend that Master Chief's inclusion would have little meaning,

I also think it is ridiculous to pretend that simply using ballot popularity and the guns issues is all it would take for Sakurai to reject Chief when there is more to choosing newcomers than just those things, when the latter argument has been willing worked around by Sakurai before with Snake and Bayonetta.

Yeah, Chief likely performed less than Banjo in the ballot, but there is also a good chance that he might look into Microsoft and seriously considering his options, leading to a thought process that would make him choose the iconic mascot of Microsoft when he gets the opportunity to work with the company, like he did with Namco Bandai to Pac-Man for Smash 4:

https://sourcegaming.info/2015/06/26/800/



Between choosing the mascot and choosing a highly demanded character from Microsoft's smaller series, Chief could be considered the better payoff for Sakurai, considering Chief is an option most of the speculation does not consider (Steve and Banjo are the main talks when it comes to Microsoft characters) that would not only surprise many, but also garner more immense mainstream attention than Banjo, when such an addition is the mascot character from one of the biggest competitors in gaming. In my opinion, with that many pros Chief has, I think that scenario of Chief has a greater chance of happening.
Chief would have meaning as being the face of shooters. However that's exactly the problem with him. Snake has guns but he isn't defined by them, so it's easier to get around that issue with Snake. Master Chief is all about shooting guns, realistic guns at that, to skirt around that wouldn't make him accurate to his character. The closest I could think of to a solution to this is to use Covenant weaponry, but would Sakurai go through with that? I think he'd go with Banjo instead because he doesn't have to worry about this question at all. It's easier to work around.

Banjo on the other hand doesn't have to deal with this hurdle and has majorly demanded for years. We know for a fact that the ballot is the primary resource to choosing newcomers, this isn't Smash 4 any more. Things like relevancy and sales are secondary to the popularity of the character itself among the Smash fanbase and I know for certain that Banjo has had a huge campaign during the Smash ballot.

I don't really think Pac-Man is comparable since he had no competition as big as Banjo.

My ideal scenario would be Banjo for the base game and Chief as DLC but there's no way Chief is getting in over Banjo at all.
 

EricTheGamerman

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...And? Despite not having a splash screen, Inkling and K. Rool still got in Smash before Geno, didn't they?

Normally I encourage looking at the little details, but there's little to no substance in this theory. Even if Geno gets in Smash, how are you going to argue that the splash screen actually meant something when other already confirmed characters who had Mii costumes didn't? This is nothing but strawgrasping at an insignificant thing in order to make Geno stand out.



Says who? Three years ago, people looked at the evidence as a whole and thought Wolf was the most likely character for Smash 4 DLC. Didn't happen. Three months ago, people looked at the bigger picture and thought Takamaru would be the new retro rep. Didn't happen. Before Verge, people would've laughed at you if you said Simon was more likely than Banjo, Bomberman, and Shovel Knight.

Opinions constantly change, and you can't get caught up in the current trend of things. What gets revealed in the upcoming Direct is probably going to cause opinions to shift once again, and I'm sure Geno will get effected, for better or worse. Following the popular opinions is only going to lead to greater disappointment if you end up being wrong. You have to step away from everyone else and look at both sides of the argument yourself.
That’s a little disingenuous to say King K Rool and Inkling got in before Geno. They were just the first revealed for this game, and if Geno gets in it would be a matter of them all getting in at the same time, AKA the base roster.

Shovel Knight is not a good comparison to Geno because, his support is so new and recent due to his appearance overall and indie games prior to his assist trophy had basically no representation in Smash (Commander Video trophy was it). They’ve both technically only had one appearance, yes, but Geno has a history of being requested. More so than other characters.

With King K Rool and Ridley in, he is the last of the almost mythical three (and even then King K Rool didn’t have AS much support). He occupied a unique place among requests due to his legacy as a highly requested character. That puts him in at least a more unique position as a request, and we’ve seen him consistently rank highly on what exit polls we’ve got. Higher than Shovel Knight generally speaking.

I think a more apt comparison would be Krystal given she originates from the Brawl cycle as well, and only made it as an assist. That said, Geno absolutely beat her out in Brawl speculation, so he’s at least got a decent chance from that as some form of representation.

Similarly speaking Banjo has never been likely. Simon has remained a popular idea for Smash, even if he hasn’t done as well on polls. Bomberman is a fair point, but Sakurai and move sets... and Takumaru is just a weird situation all around of people assuming he would be the retro rep (and who knows, through traditional smash rules he might have gotten the spot, but we’ve generally not playing by those rules anymore).

I’m just saying when Sakurai says he wants a highly requested character in, in a game that has continually mentioned the fans as a source of inspiration for the picks, and he already has the rights to the character via the Mii costume, he has a much better chance than you’re indicating. Though I agree the splash screen means nothing.
 
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Yeah, Chief likely performed less than Banjo in the ballot, but there is also a good chance that he might look into Microsoft and seriously considering his options, leading to a thought process that would make him choose the iconic mascot of Microsoft when he gets the opportunity to work with the company, like he did with Namco Bandai to Pac-Man for Smash 4:

https://sourcegaming.info/2015/06/26/800/

Between choosing the mascot and choosing a highly demanded character from Microsoft's smaller series, Chief could be considered the better payoff for Sakurai, considering Chief is an option most of the speculation does not consider (Steve and Banjo are the main talks when it comes to Microsoft characters) that would not only surprise many, but also garner more immense mainstream attention than Banjo, when such an addition is the mascot character from one of the biggest competitors in gaming. In my opinion, with that many pros Chief has, I think that scenario of Chief has a greater chance of happening.
Sakurai is not going to approach Microsoft for the primary purpose of getting Master Chief, any more than he's going to head to Sony just to pick up Kratos. Sure, it's a headline grabber - but when has Smash Bros ever, ever, wanted for exposure? Alternatively he's not going to consider Microsoft because of Banjo just to change his mind to MC along the way, because then he'd just lose the purpose of approaching Microsoft in the first place.

People don't ask for Banjo because they think Smash Bros. needs a Microsoft rep. They ask for him because he's the one big hole left in Smash's representation of Nintendo's long and storied video game history, one that so many people have been hoping to see patched up as far back as the N64 iteration. Master Chief is a large and noteworthy piece that simply doesn't have a place in that picture.
 
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Arcanir

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Geno
Chance: 50%
I honestly feel he's a bit of a coinflip. When it comes down to it, he has great merits that you need to be a playable character: He's very popular among the core fanbase, Sakurai acknowledged him as a character he wanted in the past, he can easily be an interesting character to play, and he got a Mii Costume, the only Square Enix character aside from Chocobo (arguably one of FF's mascots) to do so. With all of that plus Square Enix being on board for Ultimate, he definitely has his strongest chance to be in the game, but that leads to the potential problem: he's a character owned by SE, a third party, and that carries a level of complexity that can easily get him locked out if something doesn't go his way with Sakurai or the company. It all depends on what happens behind the scenes of this game, if things can be worked out, he's in, but if not, then he may very well miss the boat again.

Want: 60%
Mostly ambivalent on him, but after getting Ridley I feel it would be nice to get one of the other majorly speculated characters from the Brawl era. He also would have the 'the little engine that could' tale to him due to being a small character that broke out into one of the biggest games despite what was going against him.

Banjo-Kazooie

Chance: 20%
He definitely is in one of the best positions he's been in for years due to the ballot as I'm certain he had a huge amount of support during it, but I'm not sure it'll allow him to break into the game just yet. Despite Phil Spencer's comment, there's still a lot of negotiation that will have to go on behind the scenes and it still requires all parties to be on board with it, which we don't know aside from him. Additionally, he has freely talked about getting Banjo in Ultimate, which would be odd since not only would he arguably be under NDA at the time, Banjo should've been included in the game by this point as a Third Party that requires negotiation early on. Due to that, I'm not relying on him to be in the base game, but DLC could definitely change that, especially since Microsoft has gotten more friendly with Nintendo this past year.

Want: 75%
With that said, I have fond memories of Banjo-Tooie and I would love to see this dynamic duo defy the odds and make it into the game.

Nomination: Silvally x5
 
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Koopaul

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People are talking about Master Cheif? I'm sorry but didn't Sakurai say the one requirment to be in Smash is that they were on a Nintendo console? Now that could have changed, but so far every character, including Cloud, have appeared on a Nintendo console at some point. And until I see otherwise, I'm going to assume that will be the case.

Like I said, that rule could change. But until then I think Master Cheif is unlikely. Banjo has more going for him in the form of fan demand and having originated on Nintendo. I'd also argue that Banjo might be more popular than Master Cheif is in Japan. I don't think Halo is that popular in Japan, truth be told. All the X-Box systems do pretty poorly over there.

And of course Sakurai hold Japan's opinions on their own in high regard.
 

EricTheGamerman

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People are talking about Master Cheif? I'm sorry but didn't Sakurai say the one requirment to be in Smash is that they were on a Nintendo console? Now that could have changed, but so far every character, including Cloud, have appeared on a Nintendo console at some point. And until I see otherwise, I'm going to assume that will be the case.

Like I said, that rule could change. But until then I think Master Cheif is unlikely. Banjo has more going for him in the form of fan demand and having originated on Nintendo. I'd also argue that Banjo might be more popular than Master Cheif is in Japan. I don't think Halo is that popular in Japan, truth be told. All the X-Box systems do pretty poorly over there.

And of course Sakurai hold Japan's opinions on their own in high regard.
Cloud has messed up a lot of speculation in my mind. People are now saying that anything can happen, when at best Cloud was representing Final Fantasy as an entire series, which was and still arguably is absolutely important to Nintendo. But because of his limited Nintendo appearances in Kingdom Hearts, people went nuts about what that meant to them. Was it unexpected? Absolutely. Does Cloud mean what so many people seem to think he means to Smash? Not really.

We’ve yet to see any representation from a series that doesn’t have at least some Nintendo history. All the third party franchises hold pretty large ties to Nintendo. The exceptions are Snake (who does have history with Nintendo, MGS: The Twin Snakes was a GameCube exclusive in addition to the legacy of the NES port of the original and more importantly was requested by Kojima, and that friendship is more unique) and Bayonetta (who is practically a first party character with the fact that Nintendo is funding the series and making it exclusive to their platforms).

I’m not saying a representative outside of established tradition is impossible, but there is zero precedent for one at this point. Sakurai may often subvert expectations, but this ideology and the no fourth party ruled have arguably the most evidence for them.

And a Minecraft skin that is only in the game due to the the whole rework of Minecraft to be cross platform means absolutely nothing. That’s everything to do with Minecraft, and nothing real relating to Halo and Microsoft other than allowance of the content to the one game they allow everywhere anyway.
 

BluePikmin11

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Chief would have meaning as being the face of shooters. However that's exactly the problem with him. Snake has guns but he isn't defined by them, so it's easier to get around that issue with Snake. Master Chief is all about shooting guns, realistic guns at that, to skirt around that wouldn't make him accurate to his character. The closest I could think of to a solution to this is to use Covenant weaponry, but would Sakurai go through with that? I think he'd go with Banjo instead because he doesn't have to worry about this question at all. It's easier to work around.
Yes he would be willing to do so, as long as such a character can provide distinct personalities and abilities to be worth the difficulty. Master Chief has no problem with that. He would be willing to find compromises by choosing the weapons that least resemble realistic weaponry (Sorta like Bayonetta's guns) like the Needler, Plasma Pistol, Energy Sword, and covenant weaponry. If Sakurai was choosing between Chief and Banjo, he would not just think about a single question of implementation difficulty, and then choose the latter because its easier to implement. There is a lot that goes into crafting a Smash character than just that one question, Sakurai goes over this process in-depth from the same Pac-Man article I shared:

It’s a pretty logical train of thought for anyone who has been playing games for many years. However, simply thinking about including a character in the game and the act of actually crafting the character and making them work are two entirely different things. It’s quite difficult for me because most players only think about whether a character is in the game and fail to consider the difficulties of bringing that character to life.

How should I bring out the character’s personality? How should I make them move? Can I devise a consistent, comprehensive style for them? What techniques can I come up with to help them stand out from the other fighters? Moreover, do those techniques fit the character and their original game? And, above all, can I make the character fun to play? If I just slap together a moveset, that character wouldn’t be very enjoyable. Conversely, on a big project like this one, there isn’t a lot of time allotted for trial and error when creating characters. I decided on nearly all the types of newcomers I wanted to include at the time of the game’s conception. Pac-Man was of course also present in the game’s incipient stages.

During the initial design process, I thought long and hard about a number of things, but the most important thing was that I developed an idea of Smash in my mind and made sure not to stray too far from that concept. Should complications arise during development, I take the ideas I came up with during the initial planning stages, compare them with what is feasible at present, and endeavor to come up with the best possible solution. This doesn’t mean taking the middle road with a simple compromise; I come up with a design that fits the current situation while doing my best to preserve the original concept I had in mind. I’ve found that this is an effective means of problem solving for me—and one that might also be applicable for many other kinds of professions.
He goes as far as willingly finding the best solution for characters with certain obstacles such as realistic weaponry (Snake) and assembling various source material from their respective games to find a cohesive & working move-set (Pac-Man), while also retaining the characteristics that makes the character stand-out.

Sakurai is not going to approach Microsoft for the primary purpose of getting Master Chief, any more than he's going to head to Sony just to pick up Kratos. Sure, it's a headline grabber - but when has Smash Bros ever, ever, wanted for exposure? Alternatively he's not going to consider Microsoft because of Banjo just to change his mind to MC along the way, because then he'd just lose the purpose of approaching Microsoft in the first place.

People don't ask for Banjo because they think Smash Bros. needs a Microsoft rep. They ask for him because he's the one big hole left in Smash's representation of Nintendo's long and storied video game history, one that so many people have been hoping to see patched up as far back as the N64 iteration. Master Chief is a large and noteworthy piece that simply doesn't have a place in that picture.
I think I will take my leave this discussion and agree to disagree on the Banjo matter. It seems like you guys see the scenario of "Banjo & Kazooie getting in purely because of the ballot" as the only realistic scenario, thinking that nothing stands in the way, not considering other factors (that I mentioned in my RTC analysis) that could lead to a change in Sakurai's critical thought process and decisions, openly leading to different scenarios, especially when such scenarios deal with a new territory of negotiation, Microsoft, on the matter.
 

Kotor

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Geno
Chance: 50%
Want: 50%

Well, Sakurai seemingly wants the guy, and he was able to negotiate a Geno Mii costume. Did the arm twisting involve making Geno a reality? I don't think Square as a whole is as stingy as people think it is. The issue seems to be more with the composers for why FFVII only has two tracks. I'm kinda curious where Geno would fall in. He's the result of a collaboration between Nintendo and Square. Would he get the Mario series logo, or something unique to him like say a Star? I did play Super Mario RPG but I wasn't too crazy about Geno. Just neat if he was revealed.

Banjo & Kazooie
Chance: 30%
Want: 50%

It's so weird. I played both N64 games when they first came out yet the Bear & Bird were always not on my mind when thinking of Smash characters. Who knows where they would've been had Nintendo intervened and took IP during Microsoft's buyout of Rare. Probably a similar fate with K Rool. They just don't use them for anything. To me, it comes down to how much demand there was from the Ballot. If there were enough to votes to throw Nintendo off, I guess might've warrant a trip to Mircosoft Headquarters.


Nominations
Black Knight as a boss character x5
 

CaptainAmerica

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This thread stopped giving me updates! And today's a big one...
Burger King

Chance: 10%
Want: 10%

Still not big on third parties, but at least the Bear and Bird would fit in well enough stylistically. Unfortunately, DHD came in and stole that thunder already, and I don't want them cut.

Still, my childhood was Sonic, not these guys, so meh.
I think Banjo's looking in much better shape than we did the first time we rated them ages ago, so I'll bump their chance to 30%. Still, there's a lot of competition among Microsoft...as all of the previous discussion is showing.

I can't really see Master Chief. I think Sakurai did still mention that some Nintendo presence is expected, and Halo is one of Microsoft's incredibly few exclusives left. Not to mention that Minecraft took everything by storm. The one positive Banjo has in this circumstance is that he's still basically known for Nintendo - aka the series has been basically dead and buried since the Rare buyout. Thus, any 'compeitition' argument in the style of "Microsoft won't want to give a direct competitor rights!" is not valid for BK since it's basically "Microsoft has the rights to a bunch of forgotten characters that Nintendo wants for nostalgia's sake."

It really depends on the politics here. Does Nintendo ask for BK because they did well on the ballot (which I assume they did), and then MS says that it's fine and they weren't using them anyway? That's good for the big N, but doesn't do much for MS. Does MS instead want free advertising for their newer stuff and counter with Steve?

---

And it seems that whenever Geno's involved, there are always loads of new people for some reason. And look at these scores so far! Evidently someone from the ESRB came out and showed a video of Geno in Smash, since I know Vergeben's "some Square character is in" isn't enough to unambiguously confirm Geno...
Now the big one...
Pinocchio

Chance: 35%
Want: 0%

Sakurai likes him, and he has a rabid fanbase. Sm4sh has shown third parties are a non-issue and he got the Mii costume, so he’s definitely visible.

But ugh, no thanks. At all.

I never understood all the support for him in the first place. A (i) third party (ii) one-off character who’s (iii) spin-off only from (iv) over twenty years ago (v) with no future who’s (vi) not exactly iconic. Any one of those points is used as a hit against other characters we’ve rated so far, so why is a character with all six better?

If Geno gets in above Daisy, that is just a royal **** you to Daisy fans. And feel free to replace “Daisy” with “Waluigi” for another Mario rep, “Midna” or “Skull-Kid” as one-offs who actually bothered to get a remake, or “Doomguy” or “Dovahkiin” for third parties whose games made immense impacts.

Geno’s one of those few characters I actively don’t want because he does hit all the criteria for irrelevance. There are too many characters I want who are denied by various arguments above, so someone with that many hits against him should not be considered a Nintendo All-Star because of nothing but a vocal fanbase. Give him a trophy in the next game and leave it at that.
I’ll bump the chance up to 40%, but very begrudgingly. And I’d drop my want score if I could.

With the game seeming to be fanservicey, and with as rabid a fanbase as Geno has, it’s looking likely. Sakurai has even mentioned him by name, which he’s only done for one other character - Ridley.

Still, Geno is only known from a single spinoff twenty plus years ago, so we can’t assume that there’s some massive secret fanbase of teenagers who make up a silent majority like Bayonetta had. Geno hasn’t shown up in any other spinoffs, so nobody really knows him outside of Smash speculation circles. You’d think Nintendo would just buy the rights to Geno (not like Square’s using him) and start letting him show up in Mario Karts/Parties/etc so people would get a feel for him and his personality (which is an aspect not many people talk about)

We like to say that Waluigi is in a perfect place in the game since he’s never been in a main series game, only every other spinoff where he’s a walking meme. And Geno...was never in a main series game, only a single 22 hear old spinoff where he wasn’t even the most important party member.

Not to mention that we’re hitting saturation on Mario characters (we already have one), and that third-parties need to be more strictly vetted. Bomberman gives a nice idea - stick him as an assist, and then we’re good.

But here’s the deal: I’ll support your one-off third-party from a 20-year-old cult classic if you manage to get in my one-off third-party from a 7-year-old triple A megahit that proved Nintendo can play with the big boys. If I get a playable Dovahkiin, I’m rating everyone 90+in want. But until the roster is big enough for the Dragonborn, Geno’s place is not in the roster either.
I'll keep the 40% chance and the 0% want here.

I still don't like the idea of a playable character who's this obscure. We know that he's been considered before based on the SourceGaming reports, what we don't know is why he didn't end up in the game. It may well have been that Square Enix was being overprotective of some IP that they've never even looked at again. Or it may be that Sakurai thought it would be cool, but he's just too obscure for the 'All-Star' title.

I know people hate to consider it, but it really fries me when people will extol Geno as a character on the level of Ridley or K.Rool, and then immediately discount Waluigi since he's just a meme. Waluigi does have actual fans, and has always been **** on because 'he's not in main-series, just spin-offs!'. So is Geno. And Waluigi's been in WAY more games than Geno has. And more recently. And just think - most games add the main character, not just any random side character that comes in. I'm tired of hearing that the title character of one of my favorite games is not Smash-worthy since she's 'just Link exposition fairy in one game and didn't show up again.' Midna is more important than Zelda in that game, and she does have a fanbase. Oh, and he got the Mii costume like K. Rool (who didn't get a splash screen...nor did Chrom or the Inklings). Just like other important, fan favorite characters like Ashley or Takamaru (who, might I add, were considered locks before the August and E3 directs respectively).

But fortunately, there is a place in Smash for characters who are not main-line characters like Waluigi, Midna, Ashley, and Tak. Geno would make a perfect assist trophy. He's got some potential, and now that Squeenix is playing nice, it's possible. But he's also over 20 years old, and obscure to everyone who isn't involved in Smash speculation or has played SMRPG. If it is literally the best game of all times (as is touted), why has it never received a sequel, or even a rerelease outside of VC? Why did it not even get to Europe until the VC? I think people overplay this game quite a bit. Remember when Brawl introduced Assist Trophies...?
Brawl DOJO said:
Assist Trophies allow you to enjoy even more characters who couldn't quite make it as playable fighters. You may even see some that only the most dedicated fans will recognize, so you'll have to look forward to them.
Geno does seem to hit that second part there. Just like Sukapon, he's a character with a fanbase, but is completely obscure outside of it. Plus, a Geno assist would still bring the exposure that people are wanting him to get.

It's mostly bias on my part, but I support a few third party characters who are deemed unlikely for various reasons despite being iconic in themselves to be recognizable to most anyone who's ever played video games. It therefore stings that the characters I like are being discarded, most of them for the same reasons that people use to justify Geno. However, if Sakurai is using the ballot, there's a really good chance of seeing Geno show up. And then I'm sure we'll be seeing loads of people get mad when their non-Smash-nerd friends say "Why is this puppet thing in the game? Is he from Kid Icarus?"

Prediction for Heihachi: 38.5%
Prediction for Lloyd: 19.4%

Nom: Dovahkiin x5
 
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Erimir

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Two third-party characters. Both would be easily adapted into playable characters with full movesets.

I don't think it's been confirmed that the 103 stages we've seen so far are ALL of the stages. What we saw in the Smash Direct tells us what is definitely in, but I don't think it tells us what's definitely not. Sakurai's statements are not necessarily translated perfectly, they may have been more ambiguous than the English, and either way, I don't think the statements in the Direct mean that there definitely are no other stages. The stage select screen certainly has spaces for a handful more (you might think they would have used a different arrangement otherwise). Anyway, they wouldn't have wanted to say that there were more stages or weren't, since that would lead to people concluding they know such-and-such characters are definitely in or are much more likely. If we knew there were more stages, we would conclude there are probably new franchises. People now are taking it that there can be no new franchises. They seem to want newcomers to be a surprise though, so if they reveal a new stage, I won't be surprised.

Geno

The biggest two points against Geno
-lack of relevance, Super Mario RPG is now over 20 years ago. He's certainly not becoming more relevant
-he was only in Super Mario RPG, and wasn't the biggest character in the game, or the only unique character to the game (but eh, nobody's clamoring for Mallow)
Same as ever, or worse, as the game gets older.

But Square has a character in Smash already and Geno had a Mii Costume, so it seems that negotiating with Square would be much less of an issue than before. It seems like probably Geno would not have been worth it for Nintendo to negotiate for by himself, but with Cloud already in, the additional effort is not much. We've also seen some (probable, given online polls) Smash Ballot favorites get in, like Ridley and K Rool. Geno has pretty good fan demand in Japan and the West, and is one of the most requested characters that's not already in.

Additionally, Vergeben has said that Square is getting another character, and Geno would probably be the most likely given that Cloud doesn't have a plausible Echo, and Geno is more desired than other Square Enix characters (although a second FF character or a DQ character aren't implausible).

As for the stage issue... Geno is kind of a Mario series character. Sure, they could add a SMRPG stage, but they could also make his home stage one of the existing Mario stages and call it a day. So it doesn't matter whether you think we'll get more stages, IMO.

Geno chance: 60%
I'm a bit wary of just assuming anything Vergeben says is true. But if Square Enix is getting another character, Geno is by far the most likely one to get in. It's not a lock, since there are other options, but the probable Ballot results + Mii Costume makes him the heavy favorite.
Geno want: 65%
I loved Super Mario RPG, but I was never a huge fan of Geno. But he'd be cool enough, sure.

Banjo-Kazooie

BK aren't terribly relevant either BUT if they could somehow get a re-release of the games on Switch, that could be a big deal... But anyway, they are pretty popular among Japanese Smash fans and topped some polls in the US. And Microsoft's Xbox division head guy has basically said that they'd be cool with Banjo-Kazooie being in.

Vergeben claims that Minecraft will get a stage, which is not yet confirmed, but if so would mean that Microsoft content would be in the game. But Minecraft is on Switch and 3DS, and BK games are not. And getting just a Minecraft stage but no MS characters is very plausible. Either way, Vergeben hasn't said anything else that could point to BK. Neither have other credible leakers. BK would be the true triumph of the ballot, given the difficulty of including them, the fact that they're owned by a rival hardware developer rather than just a regular third-party, and there's no plans for BK releases (or re-releases) on Nintendo platforms.

They would also in theory require a new stage. Of course, according to Vergeben, we're getting a Minecraft stage anyway...

Banjo-Kazooie chance: 25%
The biggest arguments here are the strong fan demand and the supposed Minecraft stage. I think it's quite likely they at least considered including them, but the issues with their inclusion are still very large. Probably not going to happen, but with the fanservice we're getting and their Ballot popularity, they might get it done.
Banjo Kazooie want: 95%
I'd be a fan. And hell, if it led to Nintendo Switch ports of the 64 games, that would be even better, tbh. One of my most wanted that's not already in.
 
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Opossum

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Banjo Kazooie

Chance: 1%
The longest of longshots, IMO. If Sakurai is talking to Microsoft I'd bet on Minecraft instead.

Want: 1%
Not really a fan. I'd be happy for those who want him though.

Reinhardt trophy x5
 
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It's very weird to me people out there think Sakurai would approach Microsoft and not get Banjo. Let's be real if Sakurai goes to Microsoft then he will either come back with Banjo or no one. That doesn't mean Chief or Steve won't come too but like seriously there's no benefit in not trying to get Banjo and Sakurai likes to please fans.
 

ShroomEL

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Geno
Chance: 80%
Geno I feel like has a very high chance at getting into Smash brothers ultimate, and at this point, I would consider him a lock. There's a lot to support Geno, including Sakurai stating that he himself has wanted to add Geno in the past, despite his failure to make it happen. I know you've heard this a million times already, but Sakurai has said "To tell the truth, it’s because I wanted Geno to be a playable character. He has a gun for a hand, and I think he fits in really well with Smash." On top of that, Ridley, Krool and Geno are considered the trio of most wanted characters in Smash brothers, and with TWO of them being added already, It just raises the chances so much I feel. With not only a large fanbase to support him, but Sakurai's support too, along with the whole Mii costume to fighter thing, I think this is the year that Geno joins Smash bros.

Want: 100%
Geno has been my most wanted Smash bros newcomer for a long time now. While there are some other characters I really want, Geno, along with Ridley, have been the big ones for me. They both come from some of my favorite games, Metroid being my favorite franchise, and Super Mario RPG, being my first rpg game, and providing so many nostalgic memories for me, and now that Ridley fit himself into smash, I'm really hoping Geno can join with him. I may not have been around to experience the game when it was first released, but Mario Rpg still stands as one of my favorite games, and hvaing Geno join would be all the more satisfying.
 
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Dr Bones

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Geno

Chance: 60% Sakurai has stated that he wanted Geno in one of the installment ( honestly cant remember which one but I want to say Melee. Whether or not he still wants him is unknown to me. Then comes the question of whether or not SE wants to play nice and let him have another character and THEN whether or not they'll let him use a character that they cannot do anything with. He had a costume in WiiU so it's looking good but I wouldn't call him a lock by a long shot.

Want: 60% I've never actually played SMRPG so I really don't have a preference and no one has really given me a proper reason to fully support him other than "he was in a game they like. I've always thought he would end up being a top tier with an insanely high skill roof. He clearly has a lot of support so I won't be mad if he makes it in though.

Banjo & Kazooie

Chance: 60% This honestly comes down to Nintendo and is almost the opposite of my reasoning for Geno. Would Nintendo use a Microsoft only character? His history is with nintendo, but he's still a character directly owned by an active competitor who has 0% chance of having any more games on a nintendo platform. the duo are incredibly beloved and if they were owned by microsoft we would have seen them in the roster a long time ago.

Want: 90% Banjo Kazooie 1 and 2 are awesome and are a major part of my childhood. They are incredibly iconic and would be nothing but positive to the roster.
 

BluePikmin11

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It's very weird to me people out there think Sakurai would approach Microsoft and not get Banjo. Let's be real if Sakurai goes to Microsoft then he will either come back with Banjo or no one. That doesn't mean Chief or Steve won't come too but like seriously there's no benefit in not trying to get Banjo and Sakurai likes to please fans.
To me personally now, getting Banjo over Chief is like getting Agnes before the biggest Square mascot Cloud or a Dead or Alive character before the biggest Koei Tecmo mascot Ryu Hayabasa. It is natural thought process for me to think about the biggest mascot from the company first before anyone else now when it comes to third-party companies that have yet to get their own characters. On the contrary opinion, I find it very weird that people can easily point out Banjo first without naming the other big options. Somehow, Microsoft is the natural exception to the rule for whatever reason. But that is just me. :p
 
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To me personally now, getting Banjo over Chief is like getting Agnes before the biggest Square mascot Cloud or a Dead or Alive character before the biggest Koei Tecmo mascot Ryu Hayabasa. It is natural thought process for me to think about the biggest mascot from the company first before anyone else now when it comes to third-party companies that have yet to get their own characters. On the contrary opinion, I find it very weird that people can easily point out Banjo first without naming the other big options. Somehow, Microsoft is the natural exception to the rule for whatever reason. But that is just me. :p
Well I mean it might have something to do with Banjo being a beloved Nintendo character and Chief not being too popular with the Smash fanbase. Still, that's not even the point. The point is Sakurai isn't going to gloss over Banjo when it comes to negotiations and it is extremely unlikely we get any Microsoft content and Banjo not be a part of that.
 
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zeonie888

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Geno
Chance: 50%
I'd say with which characters have been announced being highly requested I feel Geno has a decent shot of getting in. He's quite popular and would give him time to show off what he could do.

Want: 75%
He's got a cool design and I'd love to see how'd he play as a fighter.

Banjo-Kazooie
Chance: 40%
I feel the duo have a bigger hurdle to get over but with K.rool getting in there might be a chance for them to get in

Want: 75%
I loved both of the n64 games and they have so many moves for them to use which makes me very curious about how they would play.
 
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To me personally now, getting Banjo over Chief is like getting Agnes before the biggest Square mascot Cloud or a Dead or Alive character before the biggest Koei Tecmo mascot Ryu Hayabasa. It is natural thought process for me to think about the biggest mascot from the company first before anyone else now when it comes to third-party companies that have yet to get their own characters. On the contrary opinion, I find it very weird that people can easily point out Banjo first without naming the other big options. Somehow, Microsoft is the natural exception to the rule for whatever reason. But that is just me. :p
You should take into account that most people don’t see Banjo (or Steve, for that matter) as a Microsoft character, since he was acquired, not created by them and the games he’s known for are on Nintendo consoles.

It’s the same logic behind why so many people feel that Snake, Cloud or Crash are Sony characters despite being owned by other companies: their games are on PlayStation, while Banjo’s games are on Nintendo (not Xbox).
 
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Troykv

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Geno:

Chance: 50%

One of the weirdest cases in Smash Bros story.. usually a kind of character it would be easily overlook; but somehow ended up snowballing a gigantic popularity Sakurai you're a genius xD. And had become prominent in the Smash Bros speculation since then... It's a weird character that became very popular I mean, under normal circunstances it would be easier to justify any Fire Emblem lord other that Seliph to appear in Smash Bros than this little puppet star. What a mad world we live.

Want: 54%

Not special attachment; but still a fun potential

Banjo-Kazooie

Chance: 15%

Unlikely for base roster because of their special circunstances; but at least they had become a popular pick; and probably one of the new big three along with Geno and Isaac; Banjo is like Megaman or Simon; they're essencially Nintendo characters that belong to another company; so that definitely gives him tons of appeal to the kind of fanbase Smash Bros has.

Want: 55%

I kind of like them and their games.

Predictions:

Lloyd: 14.4%
Heihaichi Mishima: 23.5%

Nominations:

Gardevoir x5
 
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UtopianPoyzin

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Well, because I'm new here, could somebody inform me exactly when the chance/want rankings for the later-ranked fighters are going to be added to the post? I had been watching for a while, and saw that the characters already on the list had received updates based on the re-ratings, but when are the new guys going to get added to the list?
 
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Going to touch on the general "Chances" of the "Fan Favorites" of Speculation now. I think people are tending to forget some key details.

We were told not to expect many newcomers. Now we have already gained Inklings, King K Rool, Simon, Ridley, Chrom, Richter, Daisy, and Dark Samus. That's 4 unique newcomers and 4 echoes, there's surely more of course. But we were told not to expect a lot. Now we have people saying Banjo, Geno, Skull Kid, and Isaac are surely unique locks. And the last one even has people expecting an echo of. That's already 5 more, but we also have plenty of other characters in circulation like Medusa, Black Knight, Soren, Cecila, Ninten, Paper Mario, Chorus Kids, Karate Joe, Dixie, Isabelle, Lip, Gardevoir, Gen 7, Shadow, and Tails. We were told to not expect a ton, but we already seem to be diving into that as we get FURTHER in.

And let's not forget that Captain Toad, Lyn, Ashley, Meowth, Waluigi, Zero, Bomberman, and Krystal all were quite popular and demanded as well. They all didn't make it in and were some people's favorites. Not everybody's favorite will make it in, and I think there may be some taking for granted that their favorite is the next one. Be hopeful but be prepared to be disappointed as well.
 
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Triple 0

I've already mentioned my opinion on stages. And honestly I didn't think these two had much chance anyway. But if I had to choose one Namco character, it'd be Lloyd, and his design is somewhat appealing.

10% want for him


Nominate no more stages x5
 

Sari

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Lloyd Irving

Chance: 20%
He's fairly requested and had a mii costume in SSB4. That said if we were to get another Namco rep, someone from Tekken would most likely have higher priority.

Want: Abstain
He seems like he could work but I've only played a tiny bit of Tales of Symphonia so I can't really give a clear opinion.

-----

Heihachi

Chance: 85%
Very popular, was considered for SSB4, had a mii costume in said game, appeared in leaks, and of course Namco will most likely add in some Tekken representation. If he is not in the base game I'm pretty certain he will be DLC.

Want: Abstain
I know basically nothing of the Tekken series so I won't comment.

-----

Chance predictions:

Bandana Dee: 28.44%
Magalor: 4.83%

-----

Nominations:
Kyo Kusanagi x5

TCT~Phantom TCT~Phantom I apologize if you said it before, but when can we expect the top nominated characters to be locked into the schedule?
 

Strider_Bond00J

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Heihachi Mishima:

Chance: 30%
Like Inkling, Chrom and K. Rool, Heihachi received a Mii Costume last time, and we know he was considered previously but Sakurai couldn't seem to translate his abilities in Tekken to Smash for 3DS/Wii U. Hence he's a simple Mii Costume. However, Tekken is one of the best-selling fighting games and is popular worldwide, so he definitely has star-power to his name. The question is whether or not he'd be given a second chance for consideration this time around, if they wanted to retry Heihachi again. Doesn't seem likely to me that he'd be a base-roster character, but as a DLC character I could easily see Heihachi happening.

Want: 65%
Although I absolutely cannot play Tekken to win any sort of tournament, and I can only win by sheer luck and fluke outside of Akuma and Geese, I think Heihachi would be an interesting addition to Smash Bros if they decided to bring another one of Namco's mascots to Smash Bros. ...Though it'll be sad to hear his voice since Ishizuka passed away. Ishizuka was a talented seiyuu - Prof. Oak, Mr. Satan, Zabuza...

Lloyd Irving:
Chance: 20%
Like Heihachi, he also received a Mii Costume, likely because he was a popular request from the casual crowd. Curiously, I've noticed that while support for characters like K. Rool and Geno continued to grow, Lloyd's popularity seemed to just... fade away. Why? Was it because of the "WAHHE'S GOTASWORD!" complaints? Or do they feel like they were happy he was recognised? I'm not sure why most of his fanbase seemingly vanished for this game, but I imagine he might not have been as successful as other Ballot era characters to warrant his spot in the limelight as a playable fighter.

Want: 35%
I can see the appeal for him, but I don't have much of a connection with the Tales of series, outside of Tales of Graces f, which didn't capture my interest for very long. It'd be nice to see him if he were playable, but I'd probably take Heihachi out of these two Namco characters today.
 

aarchak

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Lloyd Irving

Chance: 40%
He's one of the more likely 3rd parties, considering he got a mii costume in Smash 4. Though I do believe I saw an article where the creator said he wouldn't pressure Sakurai into putting Tales characters into Smash Ultimate, so take that as you will (sorry no source).


Want: 100%
Tales of Symphonia is one of my favorite JRPGs, and Lloyd would be a super nice character to see. He has moveset potential, too. How he plays in his home game would translate very well to Smash, and I would welcome him with open arms.


Heihachi Mishima

Chance: 30%
He isn't that big because I think Lloyd is more likely for the second Namco rep, but he still has his chance. He got a mii costume too, after all.


Want: 20%
Heihachi isn't someone I particularly care for, but I wouldn't hate his inclusion. He's okay in my opinion.

Nominations

FE Spear User x5
 

Artix

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Heihachi

Chance: 25%
Heihachi might have a chance to get in Smash since he has a Mii Costume in the previous game. However, I still think that Sakurai might not consider him due to the fact that his movesets are kinda hard to implement. But if Namco Bandai were to get one more rep in Ultimate, it's definitely going to be Heihachi.

Want: 5%
I like Heihachi as a character and it's really sad to see him (and his actor) died in Tekken 7. But, I would rather have someone from Tekken to represent the series instead and you already know who it is just by looking at my nominations.

Lloyd Irving

Chance: 40%
If we're getting a Tales character in Smash, Lloyd Irving and Yuri Lowell comes to mind since both characters are iconic. Lloyd has the slight edge over Yuri since he started out in a Nintendo platform whereas Yuri started out in Xbox 360 and the fact that Lloyd has a Mii costume in Smash 4. So, yeah, Lloyd might have a shot in getting into Smash than Yuri, at least in the base roster, which is highly unlikely at this point. DLC, however, they might prefer Yuri just to promote Definitive Edition on the Nintendo Switch.

Want: 85%
It would really make me happy to see Lloyd in Smash, even if he's not my most wanted character. I have played Tales of Symphonia since childhood and I've loved the game so much that I even decided to play it again.

Nominations:
Jin Kazama x5
 
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Kotor

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UtopianPoyzin

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Well, back at it again for Day 2 of my ratings. Here we go... (except this time I only have 5 minutes to write up a reasoning, so it's going to be mediocre at best...

LLOYD IRVING

The "Tales" series may be expansive, sure, and Lloyd Irving got himself a Mii Swordfighter Costume, but I don't believe that he is all that relevant, not going to lie. His design is moderately good, he hasn't been in a non-smash game since 2013, and there are other, much better characters that could represent the "Tales" Franchise. Still, the "Tales" series could SURELY use a rep as a fighter, but I don't believe that it has the highest priority for that case at the moment. I hate to be a debbie-downer about it, and I don't have all that much time to explain, but Lloyd Irving gets a score of...

Chance: 5%

Still, Lloyd looks like a pretty solid character. (I never played the Tales of Symphonia, I only played one of the other "Tales" games. Can't remember what it was though, it was only for maybe a half an hour anyway. Didn't get into it, but that doesn't stop the fact that it's popular...) Just because I would like to see the "Tales" series get a rep, and for the other loyal Lloyd fans, I have to give him a...

Want: 20%

HEIHACHI MISHIMA

Haven't actually played any Tekken games either. (I have played Pokken, though, if it matters). Tekken is also a very popular series, definitely more so than Tales in the western world. Including the main antagonist of Heihachi quite possibly represent Tekken quite well. He has been in games with Ryu before, and he made it. I personally believe Heihachi's chances of getting in are just higher than Lloyd's though. Sadly, I also think that Heihachi shouldn't be Nintendo's biggest priority to add as a fighter. There are simply much better options aside him, and if Geno was the middle of the list, Heihachi is near the bottom. Both come from Mii Fighter costumes, but Heihachi just edges Lloyd out. By how much? Well, just about...

Chance: 10%

I abstain from Want.

Noms:
[Concept]: Stage Builder/Editor Returns x5
 

CaptainAmerica

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The Iron Fist

Chance: 20%
Want: 0%

I really think that people are sleeping on Heihachi.

We can all talk about how Sakurai's 'debated certain characters before,' and Heihachi's one of them. Not to mention that he's the face of the Tekken series, which is one of the most well-known fighting game series in the world. And it's made by one of Smash's codevelopers. Not to mention that he got a Mii costume (granted the controversial young version and not the grandpa) in the last round.

I'm sure that Sakurai's problem wasn't "he has no moves!" considering he comes from a fighting game with a full kit, while characters like Villager exist at all. I think it's more a problem of being able to translate them, and he managed that already with Ryu. After him, it's easy enough to consider another fighting game charater in Smash, and I'm sure someone who can fully flesh out the dog from Duck Hunt can manage to adapt a full fighting game kit.

But I've gotta say, Tekken bores me. I know people like to talk about how Smash is boring when 16/73 Smash characters use swords...well 100% of Tekken characters use punches/kicks/etc. I prefer Soul Calibur, and if we got a Namco second, I'd want an SC character. I just know that's never gonna happen since SC has been in the toilet recently, and hopefully will be able to successfully revive next month, while Tekken is HUGE.

Tales Of Somewhere

Chance: 10%
Want: 0%

I actually think that Heihachi's more likely than Lloyd. I definitely hear about the Tekken franchise WAY more than the Tales franchise, despite both characters being recognizable. Lloyd also got a Mii costume as well.

But I am not a fan of generic anime-looking JRPGs, and after the entire FE clan, plus Shulk (and the Elma/Rex speculation), plus the Isaac speculation, Sora speculation, etc... I'm quickly hitting my fill of bishounen. Yes, new dual wielder moveset...just like people want for Elma as well, and my Dragonborn moveset also is a dual-wielder. I'm also tired of so many characters who have no recognizable headgear so Kirby has to go to the spiky-anime-hair wig store all the time (Why did his Zelda one lose the wimple! We all recognized it, and it was better than another wig!).

I also can't believe that Western games are not iconic when compared to some of the Eastern ones leading speculation, and I'm waiting for that rule to fall apart.

BDee Prediction: 49.5%
Magolor prediction: 15.3%

Nom: Dovahkiin x5
 
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