Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Artix]

Geno

Chance: 80%
Geno is pretty much a lock at this point due to his popularity, a ton of support back in Brawl and the fact that he has a Mii costume in Smash 4. The only hurdle he has to face is Square Enix, it's still up to them whether they should add him in Smash or not. Other than that, he's pretty much guaranteed that he might join Smash Ultimate as a playable character.

Want: 100%
He's really my favorite character in Super Mario RPG and even though he's not one of my most wanted characters, it would definitely make me happy to see him in Smash as a playable character. In fact, I will play as him non-stop if he does get in.

Banjo & Kazooie

Chance: 10%
Even though Banjo-Kazooie had a great history with Nintendo and the fact that Phil Spencer wants him in Smash, the series has been pretty much dead for, like 10 years (not counting the re-releases) and this could hurt them in the long run. But at least they're more likely to get in Smash than Steve or Master Chief due to it's history with Nintendo before they transfer to Microsoft.

Want: 85%
I would absolutely love to have Banjo & Kazooie in Smash, even if the odds are against him. I have played Banjo-Kazooie for a very long time and I liked it so far. I pretty much would like it if they make him a unique character instead of being a Duck Hunt Echo.

Nominations:
Jin Kazama x5

 

[MasterWarlord]

Geno Chance - 10%: Yes, K. Rool indicates the game is most likely about fanservice, but there are plenty of other characters who can fulfill "fanservice" besides Geno and there are very few characters left. The statement Sakurai gave about Geno just feels far too direct to be alluding to him appearing in the current Smash game in my opinion. Two Final Fantasy songs being all we get shows how difficult Square is being with their properties.

Geno Want - 20%: I like Super Mario RPG and would like to see it represented, but I could name countless RPG characters I would prefer over Geno from the series, and even just SMRPG itself. We're just stuck on Geno because some people over a decade ago decided on him for Brawl, and he feels like the biggest bandwagon in the fandom. Heck, even just from Mario, there are other characters that would make more sense than him (albeit, they're deconfirmed). While this sounds very negative, he's still a decent character in his own right.

Banjo Chance - 60%: Banjo is a top ballot performer and doesn't have any of the objects in the way that Geno has. Microsoft is a much more agreeable company than Square. I also consider the Geno name drop from Sakurai as a negative, mind you.

Banjo Want - 100%: These guys are as Nintendo as you really get for 3rd party, their home is on Nintendo. All games outside of the original two are garbage, and they were sold off in a deal with the devil. Banjo just makes a lot of sense after K. Rool. I still prefer Banjo's games to Mario's.

 

[ShinyRegice]

Geno chances: 55%
It feels a little special giving such a high chance score to a one-off character from a third-party spin-off, but ultimately it seems that stars may align in his favor this time:
- First, King K. Rool's confirmation helps his chances, because they're similar in some ways, being characters not used since a long time in their home series (although Geno is to an even further extent than K. Rool was) while being fondly remembered by fans. He also confirms the trend that character with timeless popularity may trump the lack of what we referred during the Smash 4 days as "relevance", giving Geno the right environment to actually have a chance. Also, K. Rool got a Mii costume as Smash 4 DLC, and so did Geno, whose costume appearance was presented as a bigger deal than the rest.
- Sakurai directly commented about the character himself as an interesting character choice. Nuff said.
- Remember the toy Sakurai bought as part if his Smash Ultimate project? It's bipedal and has guns, and could as such fit Geno very well as a way to communicate his moveset (like how he uses figures to do so as revealed in interviews). Of course it could also be for someone or something else, there's no guarantee. Edit: to be fair it could also be Inkling who has a gun too, although I believe it is used in less moves than what I'd expect Geno to use, and their body is more slender than Geno who from memory I'd say fits the shape of the toy better.
- Edit: how did I forget to mention Vergeben's hint? He said he's expecting a Square Enix character and he could fit this niche without needing a new stage due to being from the Mario series, assuming the no more stages hypothesis is true.

However, Geno is still third-party and Square Enix has the final word on whether he can get in. I believe Sakurai said he couldn't include him in Smash 4, so maybe things preventing him to get in could happen again... although I think it was because Cloud was higher priority and with new opportunities to get new Smash characters it might not be as much of a problem this time.

Geno want: 38%
I'm not familiar with SMRPG and have little connection to Geno, however with his popularity and current circumstances I feel like his time may have come and I'm prepared to welcome him. At least he seems like he could have a unique moveset.

I'm going to rate BK later. Edit: here it is.

Banjo-Kazooie chances: 0.5%
Since the last time we rated them I believe they've gotten both things for and against them. First there's the fact they're among the most popular suggestions for a character from a currently unrepresented series, only rivalled by Isaac, and benefit from popularity that passes through the ages as evidenced by the hype surrounding them as a Smash fighter during the ballot's day when Phil Spencer said he'd like to see them in Smash, making a previously hopeless character seem somewhat plausible at least. On the other hand, until proof of the contrary I'll take Sakurai's words literally and not expect any new stage and the implications it has on newcomers from currently unrepresented series, while still leaving some room from error (in which case I'm gonna be confused about Sakurai's choice of words in the Direct). Vergeben's words are by no mean gospel, but considering he has been right on Smash so far, they're worth giving consideration to. He said there would be Minecraft content in this game, which begs the question of what Microsoft content there could be. While Steve comes from the most iconic and popular game overall, BK are more specifically requested for Smash and represent and certain audience (specifically the Nintendo 64 players who growed up with 3D platformers). But Minecraft is available to modern Nintendo consoles (unlike BK which only comes to the Xbox now) and while it may sound a bit far-fetched Steve has the advantage of being able to ignore the no more stages problem by having his home stage being... the stage builder, considering how it would fit for a game about terraforming. So overall I think Steve has the edge despite BK's higher popularity in the Smash speculation circle.

Banjo-Kazooie want: 63%
A bit unusually for someone who growed up with the Nintendo 64, I am not familiar with the series and I haven't played either of their N64 games (or any other in the series for that matter). That said, I see them as video game characters iconic of their genre, and considering they were once part of the Nintendo family, seeing them in would feel awesome.

Nominating:
New item: Beast Ball x5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

One game wonder
Chance: 50%
While his chances have been higher than ever before I still wouldn't call Geno a ''lock'' by any means.
Sakurai may want him in sure, but both companies have to agree here. There's still Square, who probably has other priorities when asked for a 2nd rep. (If that leak is even guaranteed to be real) A Dragon Quest character for example. It doesn't look to me like they give two ***** about the puppet. Also it's not like Geno is our only option for someone to represent the Mario RPG games. There's a Paper elephant in the room who not only is first party and can represent an entire side series of games also has, through estimated ballot poll data, populairity that's equal if not surpasses that of Geno.

Want: 0%
A spin off side character who's been missing in action for over two decades doesn't belong in Smash imo. Would gladly take Paper Mario over him.

Banjo Kazooie
Chance: 65%
These definitely had to be appear on Sakurai's radar. With Phill being chill about it I don't see anything getting in the way for these two. Tho it might be a bit more complicated than it looks.

Want: 55%
I can recognize their legacy. They deserve to reunite with Nintendo one last time.

Punch Out newcomer x5

 

[THE TemporaryFool]

Geno.
Chance: 99%
What can I say? Most if the evidence is pointing to geno being playable at this point. The words of Vergeben, Sakurai saying he wanted him in, the mii costume, and the ballot. But Square is the factor here: are they gonna play ball?
Want: 100%
The fans want him, he would be a mario character people want, he would stand out. He would be great

Banjo & Kazooie
Chance: 50%
Despite the fan demand, I don’t see it. Third party characters aren’t usually gonna be easy to include. It requires a number of things, the company of the character wanting them in is one of them. While Phil Spencer has given this sentiment, along with Microsoft and Nintendo being on good terms, licensing might be even more of a problem because Microsoft is more than just a game developer. Maybe as dlc though
Want: 100%
I think the fans should get what they deserve after what happened to rare

 

[EarlTamm]

Geno
Chance: 85%
Really, I have little to add that has not already been said. He has the popularity, the votes, the costume(That is the only one that had a splash screen btw), Square is on board, and it's clear that Sakurai wants him. And since Square did little to limit Sakurai with Cloud and already gave Sakurai rights to Geno before with the costome, I doubt Square would say no to his inclusion.
Want: 90%
Definitely the top of the list on my wants, shared with Shantae. And with Ridley and K.Rool in, it would feel kinda wrong not to have Geno join in.
B&K
Chances: Abstain
Want: Abstain
I don't have much of an opinion or knowledge on the character.

 

[Gemini-Gene]

GENO

Chance: 90%
Geno is looking like a lock at this point, but there's also the chance that he won't be playable. We just have to wait until the full roster, DLC included, is all revealed to us.

Want: 50%
I don't have any attachment to Geno and SMRPG due to only playing the game for 15 mins so far, but I do acknowledge the appeal and fan support for him. I would certainly try him out if he makes it into Ultimate.


BANJO-KAZOOIE

Chance: 50%
At this point the Bear and Bird's fates are in Sakurai's hands. I'm positive that Sakurai has been aware of B-K's growing support so it just comes down to Sakurai wanting them in Smash as playable fighters.

Want: 100%
The duo would be an instant main for me. And pulling from the 2 N64 games they would have a lot of move set potential and charm in Ultimate. There's also a possibility that Banjo & Kazooie's fan demand and inclusion to Smash could be the jumpstart they need for Microsoft to take the IP seriously, like they should've done years ago.

 

[skylanders fan]

Geno
Chance
another fan demanded charcter with a decent fanbase. The issue would be Square Enix and how willing they are to work with Nintendo and with FF only having 2 songs I can see it may not be as easy as Sega. But since he is popular and most likely did well on the ballot Sakurai could have talked to them about it when they had to get Cloud back for Ultimate so he has a chance
50%

Want
I have never played SMRPG so all I know is that he is a popular charcter that is a doll that is demanded way more than the other partner in his game. But I am all for having him in Smash adds more of Nintendo's past and thats fine with me
70%

Banjo and Kazooie
Chance
Obliguator Phill Spencer said it was cool. Anyways Microsoft and Nintendo have been buddy buddy lately which makes people think it means that they have spoken about adding them to Smash. I think that they have and that they could be in Smash but still just because Phill Spencer says it cool there are a lot of hurtles to jump though for any 3rd party and with Microsoft a rival of Nintendo who knows how well it could play out
50%

Want
Yeah I want them. They are a big part of Nintendo history that should have been in Smash for awhile now. They would not only bring a classic back to nintendo but also show how ultimate this Smash game is with two of the biggest Video Game companies working together.
100%

nominating
Rick Coo and Kine x5

 

[Scottfrankd]

Geno

Chance: 80%
I'm tempted to raise this to 90%, but I still hold some doubt. It's obvious that Sakurai is aware of Geno's popularity in the community, given that the ballot will have been full of requests and he was added as a Mii Costume with his own splash screen. But I still don't think he's a lock-in. I think Ultimate is the most likely chance he has of getting in, so let's see if Square can get behind it. If they can put Cloud in, they can put Geno in.

Want: 50%
Any anticipation I have for Geno is purely based on the community and their passion for Geno. I've never played SMRPG and have no personal attachment to the character, and given that he has had one appearance in a game released close to the end of the SNES' life cycle, I don't personally see the appeal. I'm happy to get behind his inclusion, but there are many other characters I would rather have before I 100% wanted Geno - one of those being.....

Banjo & Kazooie

Chance: 50%
All the boxes have been ticked, (Microsoft giving the OK, good relationship between Microsoft & Nintendo with cross-play, previous history on Nintendo systems, and a very popular history at that, considered inclusion in Melee, popular choice in both Japan and Western regions), except for one - being Nintendo. Would Sakurai and Nintendo be happy to represent/advertise B&K, a Microsoft product, through it's biggest promotional platform? They have 'technically' done it with Snake and Cloud (when was the last time we had a new Metal Gear game on a Nintendo system? A home console at that?), so it's possible.

Want: 100%
Much like many other Smash/Nintendo fans, I have a lot of nostalgia for these characters. I do not see Banjo as a Microsoft character - I see him as a representation of everything I loved about the N64 era, moreso than Donkey Kong or even Mario. B-K/B-T were refined and limit-pushing 3D platformers in that era. I always considered them Nintendo characters, and was baffled when they were carted off to Microsoft and the 360 - and used for a game that is barely Banjo-Kazooie! They represent a big part of Nintendo's legacy, and that needs representing in Smash, regardless of if it's via a third party.


That being said.....why not both?
I hope both get in and all the fans who have been waiting for them for so long get their wish.

 

[BlueMagician]

Geno

Chance: 30%
At a glance it might look like his chances are the highest they've ever been, but with Sakurai working with Konami for third party characters, I'm not confident we'll get more. Still, Geno's a weird situation, being a Mario character that Square owns, and they were able to get his looks for a Mii Fighter. Geno may not be the biggest icon in games, but he holds special significance to Smash, being both a fan favorite and a Sakurai favorite, and that's what really matters. He also represents one of the first game company crossover games in gaming, as well as a game of the golden age of JRPGS.

However, the sheer fact that SE owns him has always been the biggest obstacle. He also represents Nintendo's relation with Square... and with Square Enix announcing the (up until now Nintendo exclusive) Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles for both Switch AND PS4, I'm not sure SE has any dedication to anyone. So, he might get in, but he's not a lock.

Want: 55%
He's a cool customer from one of my favorite games, the rare sane man in a world full of goofy people, and he's got plenty of fun weapons and magic at his command, so he could be fun to play. I've never really strained myself to see him playable but I'd be happy if he was.

Banjo and Kazooie

Chance: 25%
Like I said before, I'm not confident we'll get them due to already getting a new third party. Another strange situation as they were Nintendo but now aren't, but this time they're clearly third party now. They may have gotten materials for the duo when getting K.Rool stuff, but otherwise I think they'll have to wait until DLC. Aside from that, they may have done reasonably well in the ballot but I see no hints that they're getting in the base roster.

Want: 40%
I have no personal attachment to them or their games, though I know someone who does. I mainly want to see it as a symbolic burying of the hatchet.

Nominations:
Terry Bogard x 5

 

[Lupin Red]

Geno

Chance: 65%
Geno may be popular and has a lot of support from the Ballot, but it's entirely up to Square to include Geno into Smash or not. This is why I don't rate his chances higher than 65%, because there might be a chance where he might not get in at all, so he's not entirely lock.

Want: 50%
I'm not a fan of the character, but I wouldn't mind him getting into Smash. He could have some interesting moveset from Super Mario RPG and he could be a cool character to play as.

Banjo & Kazooie

Chance: 15%
Seeing that Microsoft now has a good relationship with Nintendo and the fact that their games were once in a Nintendo console (N64 to be exact), Banjo-Kazooie might have a chance to get in Smash Ultimate. However, there is one big obstacle in their way: Relevancy. I mean, how long has it been since the last Banjo-Kazooie game was released? We haven't heard anything about Banjo-Kazooie for a very long time now, so I don't think they'll make it, at least in the base roster. DLC is the only way for them to be in Smash Bros.

Want: 40%
I have no attachment to these characters. Sure, I wanted them to be in Smash, since I've played their games before, but there are other characters that I want to get in Smash before Banjo & Kazooie.

Nominations:
Jin Kazama x5

 

[JarBear]

Geno

Chance 80%

Over the years Sakurai has said he liked the idea behind Geno and considered him in the game. Most likely Square Enix said no to home being in the precious Smash games. However, We have Cloud in Smash 4, arguably their most iconic character in the FF franchise. Which does show some warming up between SE and Nintendo. This is further indicated with the Geno costume that also had a trailer title card for it.

After the smash poll, I can guarantee Geno was a highly requested character. Since Smash Ultimate is shoe casing some more fan service, it would not be out of the possibility it could happen.

Sakurai has wanted him in the past. SE gave us Cloud and Geno costume. Ridley and K. Rool are on the roster. It can happen.

Want: 150%

Mario RPG is one of my favorite games. Geno makes a great nod towards that game which laid the way for many Mario RPG games.

Banjo: 50%

Microsoft wants him used. BK was a popular game on the 64. With this being the “Ultimate” Smash, anything is possible

Want: 80%

I would rather have Geno if it was a choice, but BK would be a great addition to the roster.

 

[Nemuresu]

Geno:
Chance-70% I do think Vergeben may be right where a "second Square Enix character" and I believe said character is Geno. I do know too, that Sakurai admitted the guy's popular and that he wanted to add him since Brawl. But the fact that he expected the Mii costume to compensate for his absence as a full character makes me hesitate the character's chances to join the party, even if every new guy is chosen through the Ballot, but then again, maybe that's won't be the case here.
Want-95% I loved Super Mario RPG. Geno's moves are perfect for the game (barring the issue of lacking a real recovery) and I'd love to see what kind of creative liberties Sakurai could take on him.

Banjo-Kazooie:
Chance-Abstain
Want-Abstain
Never played their games, can't bring myself to try and I'm so not interested in having a character from direct competition to Nintendo for a guest.

Nominations:
Season Pass/Character Pass x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Geno

Chance: 65%
Geno may be popular and has a lot of support from the Ballot, but it's entirely up to Square to include Geno into Smash or not. This is why I don't rate his chances higher than 65%, because there might be a chance where he might not get in at all, so he's not entirely lock.

Want: 50%
I'm not a fan of the character, but I wouldn't mind him getting into Smash. He could have some interesting moveset from Super Mario RPG and he could be a cool character to play as.

Banjo & Kazooie

Chance: 15%
Seeing that Microsoft now has a good relationship with Nintendo and the fact that their games were once in a Nintendo console (N64 to be exact), Banjo-Kazooie might have a chance to get in Smash Ultimate. However, there is one big obstacle in their way: Relevancy. I mean, how long has it been since the last Banjo-Kazooie game was released? We haven't heard anything about Banjo-Kazooie for a very long time now, so I don't think they'll make it, at least in the base roster. DLC is the only way for them to be in Smash Bros.

Want: 40%
I have no attachment to these characters. Sure, I wanted them to be in Smash, since I've played their games before, but there are other characters that I want to get in Smash before Banjo & Kazooie.

Nominations:
Jin Kazama x5

Yeah, because being irrelevant really hurts Banjo-Kazooie’s chances. Just like it hurt K. Rool’s, Simon’s, Chrom’s and Dark Samus’.

 

[MacDaddyNook]

Geno

Chance: 40%
Geno's overall popularity has fluctuated over the years, but has held a rather inexplicably loyal fanbase despite having done so little. In the past. Sakurai had mentioned wanting to include him, which does help his favor a bit. However, he's also one of the most forgotten characters as well, having only appeared in a supporting role in a spin-off game 20 years ago and a tiny cameo in a game where said cameo was removed in the remake. Even when Square made other Mario games, even opting to include their own characters, he's been overlooked, and this could happen again. Factor in Square's fussiness to work with, and there are still some roadblocks that sheer demand may not overcome. It's a bit up in the air, but I wouldn't be surprised with either result.

Want: 0%
I've played Super Mario RPG and used the character in my party, and I still can't get on board for him. He's about as far from an All Star as they come, not even being the star of his own series (or even his own game) and left to collect dust for over two decades. His abilities don't exactly wow me either and I can't think of anything he can do that really makes him stand out. Plus, I feel like that Mario roster is more than covered at this point. More power to his fans, but I personally would rather see him make it in as DLC for Mario Kart/Party/Sports over Smash.

-----

Banjo (& Kazooie)

Chance: 50%
Banjo is an interesting case. Despite being owned by a competing company, he's far more associated with Nintendo than his Microsoft home. Regardless, the demand for him has been fairly strong despite appearing as impossible in the past. Fortunately, Microsoft seems to be quite ok with his inclusion and has even recently included Banjo characters as playble skins on the Switch version of Minecraft. Couple that with the recent crossplay promotion between the two companies and apparently friendly relationship on social media for said promotion, and the biggest hurdle looks to much easier to pass.

Want: 75%
Personally, Steve is my Microsoft character of choice, but I'd be delighted to get both Minecraft and classic Rare in Smash. While I didn't own the game until its XBox re-release, I did enjoy playing it at the store demos and my grandfather's place back in the day, enough to have a wave of nostalgia hit me when playing it on the XBox. He'd certainly be an entertaining character and the world is charming and whimsical. Plus, short of Goku, I can't think of any other character they could end this on that'd be on the level of Ridley and K. Rool, so it'd be great to wrap this game up with a bang.

 

[Tew]

Banjo-Kazooie:

Chance: 40%
Pros:
Microsoft and Nintendo seem to be closer than ever before. In addition the head of Xbox Phil Spencer would still allow Banjo and said there would be no problems. But the biggest plus point is his popularity. Banjo did well in pretty much every fan vote and likely was one of the top contenders in the actual Ballot. He might not be the most relevant, but I think he is one of the most likeliest third party characters.
Cons:
The biggest obstacle I see for his inclusions is the amount of other popular and possible third party characters, like Rayman, Crash, Slime (DQ), Geno, Ken, Shadow, Jeanne and so on. We already got 2 third party Newcomers and I still think third party characters should remain something special and not add 10 new ones with every game. Pokémon did something similar with their legendaries. Nearly every Gen they added more and more, including Mythicals which could be seen as kinda free DLC legendaries. The first 2 Smash games had 0 third parties, Brawl had 2 and Smash4 had 6 (5 Newcomers, 3 of them as DLC). Smash Ultimate already has 9 (2 Newcomers). I don´t think we will see that many more, maybe as DLC, but for the base game I expect Geno and at max one more.

Want: 15%
To be honest, I didn´t play the game when growing up and only played it recently and I wasn´t a big fan of it. I also don´t really like his design.
Regardless I guess he could be an interesting character to play in Smash and he does have a lot of fans.



Geno:

Chance: 65%
Pros:
As of now I think Geno is the most likeliest third party Newcomer (not counting possible Echos like Ken and Shadow). He is very popular amongst the Smash community and definitely did well in the Ballot, there are some small hints and leaks in his direction, but most important is Sakurai himself saying he wanted to include him. And with the “ultimate” fanservice Smash game on its way, I don´t know why Sakurai wouldn´t put him in this time.
Cons:
As I already mentioned there are many other third party candidates and Smash Newcomers are just unpredictable as heck.

Want: 70%
Fun game, great character, amazing design. Also would fit well with Skull Kid, the hero Puppet vs the villain Puppet ^^. And I can already imagine a fascinating moveset.



Prediction:
Heihachi: 24%
Lloyd Irving: 11%


Nominations:
Fjorm: 5x

 

[DaUsername]

Man, there's a lot of hundreds being given out for Geno.
Did I miss a leak or something?

 

[Organization XIII]

Man, there's a lot of hundreds being given out for Geno.
Did I miss a leak or something?

No people are just being unrealistic

 

[Juliusaurus]

Geno

Chance: 70%
If it wasn't for the Mii costume and Sakurai's own comments of wanting the character for Brawl, I'd say his chances would be much much much lower. But because of that, and surely because he did well on the ballot, his chances are favorable here. The problem I have, is that he goes against many of Sakurai's own reasons for including characters, seemingly...

Want: 5%
He's not important at all. K. Rool, Ridley, Inkling, Simon, they're all very important to the series' they're from, even if they aren't super relevant, they've made their mark. Geno however is a side character you meet half-way through one game from over 20 years ago, and he's not even the most important side character (I'd say Mallow's storyline is bigger, as well as his partnership being earlier on... though I wouldn't want him either). It's just... his popularity snowballed after being the closest thing to a third party character in a poll made prior to Melee. He's an illogical addition that's popular because of word of mouth, not because he actually deserves it. The only thing I'd enjoy from him being in Smash is some nostalgia to represent SMRPG, like the sound effects, visuals, and moves. It's a great game, and having something from it isn't really a bad thing. Still, I think Paper Mario has earned his wings more than Geno has if they want a Mario RPG series rep here.

Banjo-Kazooie

Chance: 50%
The buddy-buddy thing Nintendo and Microsoft has going on is pretty telling, but then again, back door deals and all that can sour, especially when you're dealing with a company as large as Microsoft, where at the drop of a dime they can back out of a deal for more money... It's risky. BUT! This would be the single most beautiful moment in all of Smash history, the reunion of Nintendo and Rare, which was the biggest partnership the company has ever had, ever, and the worst and most heartache inducing breakup I've ever experienced as a fan... But this reunion, it would just be beautiful, and I think Nintendo, Sakurai, Rare, and Microsoft all know just how meaningful it would be, and I think they all want it to happen too.

Want: 100%
I want nothing more than Banjo-Kazooie in Smash (yeah, I call them Banjo-Kazooie, that's the name of them teamed up together, as a single unit, we'll see how it goes, but I'm sticking with it). For the reasons I stated above, they carry so much meaning for Nintendo and Rare, and in addition to that, Banjo-Kazooie as a franchise (at least the first two games) are freakin' amazing, to this day they're still my favorite 3D platformers. They ooze charm and personality and the spirit of adventure, they're simply delightful, and they'd fit Smash Bros. perfectly. In fact, I wouldn't want any other character after them. They're the ultimate newcomer, and this is Smash Bros. Ultimate. Make it happen, Sakurai, make history. Please.

 

[RealPokeFan11]

BANJO & KAZOOIE
Chance: 85%
Want: 95%

Banjo has everything going for him right now. He did really well during the Smash ballot, Microsoft WANTS him in the game, and he's an N64 classic that needs to be represented in Smash. Also a friend of mine from high school really wants him in. "If Banjo gets in, I'm buying this game" The only thing holding him back is Steve. Though he is much more relevant and successful than Banjo, he wasn't requested much, and I could easily see the massive outrage from the Smash community if he gets in over Banjo.


GENO
Chance: 95%
Want: Abstain

Geno is probably one of the most likely characters to be revealed in the next direct, along with Isaac, Incineroar, Banjo, Skull Kid etc. Sakurai has even wanted Geno in since Brawl. Hes.'s extremely requested and popular, but the shocking truth about my want score for him... I'm indifferent!

[DRAMATIC IMPACT 3]

Disclaimer: I don't hate Geno or don't want him to get in, I just never caught on to his hype train. If he does get in, I will be happy for all of his fans and supporters who held on and waited for the day to come.

Predictions:
Heihachi: 15%
Lloyd Irving: 15%

Nominations: Xurkitree x5
Go support him on his support thread now!

 

[SuperNintendoDisney]

Geno
Chance 80%
Want 100%

Banjo
Chance 50%
Want 100%

 

[GoodGrief741]

BANJO & KAZOOIE
Chance: 85%
Want: 95%

Banjo has everything going for him right now. He placed extremely high on the ballot (only behind Isaac and King K Rool) Microsoft WANTS him in the game, and he's an N64 classic that needs to be represented in Smash. Also a friend of mine from high school really wants him in. "If Banjo gets in, I'm buying this game" The only thing holding him back is Steve. Though he is much more relevant and successful than Banjo, he wasn't requested much, and I could easily see the massive outrage from the Smash community if he gets in over Banjo.


GENO
Chance: 95%
Want: Abstain

Geno is probably one of the most likely characters to be revealed in the next direct, along with Isaac, Incineroar, Banjo, Skull Kid etc. Sakurai has even wanted Geno in since Brawl. Hes.'s extremely requested and popular, but the shocking truth about my want score for him... I'm indifferent!

[DRAMATIC IMPACT 3]

Disclaimer: I don't hate Geno or don't want him to get in, I just never caught on to his hype train. If he does get in, I will be happy for all of his fans and supporters who held on and waited for the day to come.

Predictions:
Heihachi: 15%
Lloyd Irving: 15%

Nominations: Xurkitree x5
Go support him on his support thread now!

You know the results of the ballot haven’t been released, right?

 

[TrendanBrendan]

I think Geno's got a good shot, all the Mii Costume characters do, but he in particular is the fan favorite. Sakurai likes him, the only thing in the way possibly would be Square "2 Final Fantasy Songs" Enix.

I don't think Banjo has a shot at all, at least not for base roster. Now a DLC character that Microsoft can take a percent of the revenue, that might be more likely. If anything, since he appears to be topping current fan polls and probably the Smash Ballot as well. (Although, I'd prefer for Rayman to be the next third party outside of Geno or Shadow)

 

[RealPokeFan11]

You know the results of the ballot haven’t been released, right?

Whoops. Fixed the mistake. I was referring to a chart found in Billybo10k's Rate their chances videos

 

[Irarius]

Dante - Devil May Cry
45%
he is not a coinflip rather then a good ossebility

he is iconic, he is beloved, has a futur game on the horizon, is unique, is somewhat goofy and a hype machine on his own
capcom is cool with nintendo so its not hard to get the okay for him
he is easy to make if you use either cloud or ike as a base model to make his, and borrow some animations from bayonetta ike and cloud,
he can be a mid - heavy weight, he could untelize a stance swap like shulk does to give hiom some interesting options
he could be combo based but slower then bayonetta, also a tick heavier.
he makes total sense as a crossover character since he is in all kinds of crossover game
he also is not a simple swordfighter rather then a user of many traits, has a wide variety of interesting weapons that give him alot of options
many of his moves can be made easily by taking them from other characters, like k rool has,

dante apears more or less in monster hunter world, we got a monster hunter lvl somhow and a boss form there having dante would fit
he could have a vergil echo like richter is to simon, cause both use very similiar moves and are twins



Zack Fair
70%
Cloud echo

he is in the games the previous user of the buster sword, and a friend of cloud
he fights similiar, has basicly the same model and moves but different clothes and head, could be a bit stronger but slower then cloud
makes more sense then sephiroth echo,
he had his own game was relevant to ff7 and had something to do with most events in the timeline including the ending teaser of dirge of cerberus ( possible futur game)
he is in kingdom hearts and is a nice fit

 

[RealPokeFan11]

Dante - Devil May Cry
45%
he is not a coinflip rather then a good ossebility

he is iconic, he is beloved, has a futur game on the horizon, is unique, is somewhat goofy and a hype machine on his own
capcom is cool with nintendo so its not hard to get the okay for him
he is easy to make if you use either cloud or ike as a base model to make his, and borrow some animations from bayonetta ike and cloud,
he can be a mid - heavy weight, he could untelize a stance swap like shulk does to give hiom some interesting options
he could be combo based but slower then bayonetta, also a tick heavier.
he makes total sense as a crossover character since he is in all kinds of crossover game
he also is not a simple swordfighter rather then a user of many traits, has a wide variety of interesting weapons that give him alot of options
many of his moves can be made easily by taking them from other characters, like k rool has,

dante apears more or less in monster hunter world, we got a monster hunter lvl somhow and a boss form there having dante would fit
he could have a vergil echo like richter is to simon, cause both use very similiar moves and are twins



Zack Fair
70%
Cloud echo

he is in the games the previous user of the buster sword, and a friend of cloud
he fights similiar, has basicly the same model and moves but different clothes and head, could be a bit stronger but slower then cloud
makes more sense then sephiroth echo,
he had his own game was relevant to ff7 and had something to do with most events in the timeline including the ending teaser of dirge of cerberus ( possible futur game)
he is in kingdom hearts and is a nice fit

Ummm... today's characters are Banjo and Geno :/

 

[TrendanBrendan]

Dante - Devil May Cry
45%
he is not a coinflip rather then a good ossebility

he is iconic, he is beloved, has a futur game on the horizon, is unique, is somewhat goofy and a hype machine on his own
capcom is cool with nintendo so its not hard to get the okay for him
he is easy to make if you use either cloud or ike as a base model to make his, and borrow some animations from bayonetta ike and cloud,
he can be a mid - heavy weight, he could untelize a stance swap like shulk does to give hiom some interesting options
he could be combo based but slower then bayonetta, also a tick heavier.
he makes total sense as a crossover character since he is in all kinds of crossover game
he also is not a simple swordfighter rather then a user of many traits, has a wide variety of interesting weapons that give him alot of options
many of his moves can be made easily by taking them from other characters, like k rool has,

dante apears more or less in monster hunter world, we got a monster hunter lvl somhow and a boss form there having dante would fit
he could have a vergil echo like richter is to simon, cause both use very similiar moves and are twins

Not the characters being discussed, but for characters like Dante or Sora (or even Banjo), putting the characters in this Switch exclusive game would almost be like advertising the competitors for Nintendo. Cloud I guess proves this "rule" wrong, but we all know Final Fantasy VII remake isn't coming out anyways.
Basically, my personal rule of thumb is that, unless the game they're going to be in is going to have a Switch port, the character isn't coming.

 

[Icedragonadam]

Geno

Chance: 50%
Want: 70%

His chances are brighter than ever. With some of the DLC Mii Costumes being confirmed as Ballot Consolation Prizes for 4. Plus Vergeben hinted at SE character. But the main problem here is that only the hardcore Smash fans here and a few other forums only know who he is. He's virtually unknown to the public and it doesn't help he only appeared in one game mainly. Plus the SE rep could also mean Lara Croft, DQ character, Brave default character etc. But he still has a shot though.

Banjo

Chance: 30%
Want: 100%

He's definitely a very popular request for a long time. The only problem is that the only evidence of his inclusion is Phil Spencer wanting him in. The partnership between Microsoft and Nintendo I believe started after the roster was finalized. He has great shot for DLC though.



Nominate Concept: More Than 5 Unique Characters x5

 

[Slender]

I think Geno's got a good shot, all the Mii Costume characters do, but he in particular is the fan favorite. Sakurai likes him, the only thing in the way possibly would be Square "2 Final Fantasy Songs" Enix.

I don't think Banjo has a shot at all, at least not for base roster. Now a DLC character that Microsoft can take a percent of the revenue, that might be more likely. If anything, since he appears to be topping current fan polls and probably the Smash Ballot as well. (Although, I'd prefer for Rayman to be the next third party outside of Geno or Shadow)

The problem with Final Fantasy's songs isn't Square in general, it's just Final Fantasy. For some reason FF's music has some iffy issues when trying to use them somewhere.

 

[TBone06]

Geno

Chance: 80%

Obviously I'm a bit biased. But if I remove my bias and look at the circumstances that have occurred, I believe there are a lot of positives:
- Sakurai actively supports the character which means I think he will do what it takes to get it done.
- Relevancy (which is what people say is the biggest reason he won't get in) seemingly isn't as important as we have K. Rool and Simon who haven't been playable for a long time as well regardless if it's been longer.
- Vergeben said a Square character is going to be in
- The Mii Costume with a splash card, He clearly acknowledges the popularity.
- Out of the remaining characters not in, he's definitely near the top in popularity. He was in the same category as K. Rool and Ridley for popularity and remains to be one of the most popular characters who is not in the game
- Square playing ball from the beginning where they only joined near the end of the DLC cycle

Also, the composer of Mario RPG is not the same composer who did the Final Fantasy series. Yoko Shimomura who composed Super Mario RPG is already working on this game, so people who are saying he's unlikely because Final Fantasy only got two songs don't exactly have it right.

Want: 100%
Most wanted character since before Brawl. Super Mario RPG was a game I played back in 1996 and still play to this day. I think he would fit the game perfectly.

Banjo and Kazooie

Chance: 50%

I wish I could put this higher, but I think it's a coin flip. I'm not sure when exactly Microsoft and Nintendo started being on good terms, but I think it may have been a bit too late. I'd think he'd be more likely for DLC, but he's still definitely possible for the base game. I will say, if Rare stayed with Nintendo, there isn't a doubt in my mind that he'd be in the game already. But he would be a fantastic last reveal.

Want: 90%

I loved Banjo Kazooie and Banjo Tooie growing up. They are likely my most wanted character after Geno. They would fit so perfectly.

 

[TheCJBrine]

Geno:

Chance: 99% - Had a Mii costume (along with its own special splash screen and gameplay footage), Sakurai wants him, and a lot of fan-demand. Unless Square says "no" for whatever reason (even though they already gave Sakurai and his team the rights, or else we wouldn't have the Mii costume), I can't see him not making it in unless Sakurai somehow forgot everything about him.

Want: 100% - I have yet to play SMRPG, but I plan to, and Geno seems to have a mysterious character and nice design.

Banjo & Kazooie:

Chance: 50% - They have a huge amount of fan demand, so I imagine they would have done very well in the ballot. Phil Spencer is okay with them, and Microsoft and Nintendo seem to be "buddies" now, at least with the crossplay and stuff, so they may make it in, but probably not base-game depending on how much pay Microsoft wants, and I'm still not entirely sure because...Microsoft. I can see them being DLC.

Want: 100% - They were my first N64 game, and one of my first games in general (if not THE first), so they'll always be a couple of my favorite characters. I'd love to see them in Smash Bros.

 

[PeridotGX]

Irrelevent Nobody

Chance: 75%. When I think of the Smash fanbase's most wanted characters, it's Ridley, K.Rool, and Geno. We already have one, the 3rd feels very likely. And as for the people saying Square's Stingy, isn't it the composer that won't give more than 2 songs?

Want: 30%. I care nothing for him personally. But what he represents is priceless. If he gets in, the door for Spinoff characters is blown open, and I can support Fawful and Grovyle knowing it could happen.

Banana-Kazooie

Chance: 15%. People are really overestimating the Bear and Bird. Sure, they're popular and the president of Microsoft said OK, but Microsoft is a huge company. It may be too much of a hassle to get them, at least for the base game.

Want: Abstain. Indifferent

Nominations: Cross Series Echoes x5

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Geno want: 0% (8-10*)

I like his design, and he's fairly popular. However, I think a lot of his support is probably bandwagoning, and he's not that important or even well-characterized in his own game.

Banjo & Kazooie want: 8% (18-10*)

They're iconic. They're popular. They could do cool **** being a team. Duck Hunt is lame.

Nominations:

FE Spear User x5

* Indicates percentage penalty for potentially taking a slot from most wanted characters

 

[BluePikmin11]

I already addressed my perspective on Geno several times already, but I have a new perspective for Banjo & Kazooie.

As of now, people are optimistic about Banjo & Kazooie more than ever before, ever since K. Rool was revealed, who further helped the notion that the ballot would be used for selecting newcomers. It seems most consider Banjo to have a real shot, but something about the popularized idea bothers me, especially when no one else considers the other possibilities. Yeah, there is Banjo's ballot popularity that could benefit the chances of B&K to be considered, but I do not think he would be the only one seriously considered. If Sakurai had the chance to add Microsoft characters in Smash during the project plan, would he just take this chance and go with Banjo without hesitation due to ballot popularity? I do not personally think so.

There are other attractive newcomer options that Sakurai could have taken with this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, newcomers from franchises that are far bigger than Banjo himself. There is Steve from Minecraft, whose game is currently the #2 best selling video game of all time. There is also the defacto Microsoft mascot, Master Chief from Halo. Between the three options, in a Smash game where Sakurai is currently building a roster full of gigantic gaming icons like Cloud, Snake, Sonic, Pac-Man, Mega Man, I feel that Sakurai would take the opportunity to add Master Chief and/or Steve over Banjo Kazooie, both of which would have far more shock value and hype (At the least, Chief specifically on both aspects) than the bear. Even as someone that generally does not see Western third parties happening, it just does not come across as natural to me that Banjo would be chosen over Microsoft's biggest mascots.

To me, Vergeben listing rumors of Minecraft content present in Ultimate benefits Steve and Chief more than Banjo. Even though Banjo is more popular in the ballot than those two choices, the bear could end up being an Assist Trophy, in a similar fashion to how the more popular Bomberman ended up being an Assist Trophy with the bigger mascot (but less popular in the ballot) Simon getting in as the Konami newcomer instead. Perhaps Banjo may not be in the game at all, maybe Sakurai could be saving them for later, adding the big boys like Master Chief to establish a strong relationship with the competitor first before comfortably delving into the smaller stuff, in a similar speculated possibility of adding Cloud as Smash DLC, then adding Geno later down the line in Ultimate.

Banjo being Sakurai's #1 priority due to the ballot is not the only possibility we should account for when determining Banjo's chances in Smash Ultimate. Other possible scenarios should be considered and thought about critically before weighing down the final conclusion. Personally, I just cannot see Banjo happening in the base game, considering the kind of Ultimate content Sakurai has shown thus far and thinking about the other possible scenarios of Microsoft negotiation. Should a character from Microsoft be playable, I feel certain that more attractive choice Sakurai would go for is adding Master Chief in Ultimate. I feel the unusually optimistic perspective Smash fans currently have for Banjo will end up in major disappointment if they continue to think in a narrow manner, basing everyone's chances purely based on the ballot when that aspect alone has not greatly helped other third-party candidates from smaller franchises like Bomberman and Shovel Knight at all. Those are my thoughts on Banjo.

----------------

x5 Hanafuda character

 

[DaUsername]

Geno
Chance: 50%
One one hand, he's a popular character that even Sakurai himself thinks would be a good inclusion. But on the other, he's a one-off character from a Mario spinoff that's owned by Square.
Honestly, this could go either way.
Want: 100%
He's a cool character from a cool game and he seems like he would be fun to play as.If Sakurai wants him in he HAS to be good! Right?

B-K
Chance: 40%
They're very popular and the head of Xbox is okay with their inclusion in Smash. But getting a Microsoft character into Smash might not be as easy as it sounds, even though Nintendo and MS have been working together quite a lot recently.
Want: 100%
They would be a great addition to the roster and they probably would have been in already if the Rare buyout didn't happen. They seem like they'd be unique and fun to play as, too.

Heihachi prediction: 17%
Lloyd prediction: 17%
Noms: Nathan Drake x5

 

[PapillonXtreme]

Geno

Chance: 70%
Now, I'm not gonna go all bias about him, but I believe Geno might get in Smash Ultimate. There are a lot of reasons going for him, he's very popular amongst Smash fans and has a ton of support in the Ballot. Hell, even Sakurai acknowledged him by creating a Mii costume based on him back in Smash 4. Well, that's great and all, but they're still gonna have to negotiate with Square just to add Geno in Smash. He's not a lock by any means, but I do feel like he's gonna get in Smash.

Want: 30%
I like Geno and all, but there are other characters I want in Smash before him. But still, having him in the game would definitely make me scream in joy.

Banjo & Kazooie

Chance: 20%
Even though they're very popular and Phil Spencer wanting them to be included in Smash, I don't think they'll make it in the base roster. Microsoft is such a big company that it might prove difficult for Sakurai to approach them, especially since it's a Western company. But, if Microsoft really wants to have their characters to appear in Smash, Banjo & Kazooie are more likely due to their history with Nintendo, unlike Steve or Master Chief.

Want: 85%
I really like these characters ever since I've played their games and having them in Smash Ultimate would make me happy. I hope they're a unique character if they are included, because making them a Duck Hunt Echo would make me disappointed.

Nominations:
Jin Kazama x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

I already addressed my perspective on Geno several times already, but I have a new perspective for Banjo & Kazooie.

As of now, people are optimistic about Banjo & Kazooie more than ever before, ever since K. Rool was revealed, who further helped the notion that the ballot would be used for selecting newcomers. It seems most consider Banjo to have a real shot, but something about the popularized idea bothers me, especially when no one else considers the other possibilities. Yeah, there is Banjo's ballot popularity that could benefit the chances of B&K to be considered, but I do not think he would be the only one seriously considered. If Sakurai had the chance to add Microsoft characters in Smash during the project plan, would he just take this chance and go with Banjo without hesitation due to ballot popularity? I do not personally think so.

There are other attractive newcomer options that Sakurai could have taken with this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, newcomers from franchises that are far bigger than Banjo himself. There is Steve from Minecraft, whose game is currently the #2 best selling video game of all time. There is also the defacto Microsoft mascot, Master Chief from Halo. Between the three options, in a Smash game where Sakurai is currently building a roster full of gigantic gaming icons like Cloud, Snake, Sonic, Pac-Man, Mega Man, I feel that Sakurai would take the opportunity to add Master Chief and/or Steve over Banjo Kazooie, both of which would have far more shock value and hype (At the least, Chief specifically on both aspects) than the bear. Even as someone that generally does not see Western third parties happening, it just does not come across as natural to me that Banjo would be chosen over Microsoft's biggest mascots.

To me, Vergeben listing rumors of Minecraft content present in Ultimate benefits Steve and Chief more than Banjo. Even though Banjo is more popular in the ballot than those two choices, the bear could end up being an Assist Trophy, in a similar fashion to how the more popular Bomberman ended up being an Assist Trophy with the bigger mascot (but less popular in the ballot) Simon getting in as the Konami newcomer instead. Perhaps Banjo may not be in the game at all, maybe Sakurai could be saving them for later, adding the big boys like Master Chief to establish a strong relationship with the competitor first before comfortably delving into the smaller stuff, in a similar speculated possibility of adding Cloud as Smash DLC, then adding Geno later down the line in Ultimate.

Banjo being Sakurai's #1 priority due to the ballot is not the only possibility we should account for when determining Banjo's chances in Smash Ultimate. Other possible scenarios should be considered and thought about critically before weighing down the final conclusion. Personally, I just cannot see Banjo happening in the base game, considering the kind of Ultimate content Sakurai has shown thus far and thinking about the other possible scenarios of Microsoft negotiation. Should a character from Microsoft be playable, I feel certain that more attractive choice Sakurai would go for is adding Master Chief in Ultimate. I feel the unusually optimistic perspective Smash fans currently have for Banjo will end up in major disappointment if they continue to think in a narrow manner, basing everyone's chances purely based on the ballot when that aspect alone has not greatly helped other third-party candidates from smaller franchises like Bomberman and Shovel Knight at all. Those are my thoughts on Banjo.

----------------

x5 Hanafuda character

I really don’t think Master Chief would stand a chance, given Japan’s general hate of shooters. Likewise, Steve being selected goes against the fanservice focus of this game. Banjo really has all of the pros of the other characters but none of their big cons.

 

[Sid-cada]

Geno

Chance - 40% - Still somewhat skeptical of his chances. Now he is more likely than ever, but I think it comes down to if Square is willing to go through with it, and how much Sakurai/Nintendo is willing to give in return. Otherwise, he has the popularity to push through most of what he had as obstacles, so that's all that's left. I don't know, but I'd rather err on the side of caution when it comes to this.

Want - 20% - I don't find him interesting as a fighter. I'd also rather have any deal bring someone from Square Enix who's a bit more popular and well known among the general populace.


Banjo Kazooie

Chance - 35% - It mostly comes down to Microsoft. Honestly, much of what I said about Geno could be echoed by Banjo. The only real difference between them is that Banjo is seemingly not quite as popular as Geno was. That makes me doubt them even more.

Want - 50% - While I have no connection to them, I can understand the want at least. While they might make me fans via their move set, as of now I am neutral.


Predictions

Heihachi - 7.34% - Tekken's big mascot, but will that be enough?

Lloyd Irving - 12.24% - Possibly?


Nominations

Reimu Hakurei X5

 

[BluePikmin11]

I really don’t think Master Chief would stand a chance, given Japan’s general hate of shooters. Likewise, Steve being selected goes against the fanservice focus of this game. Banjo really has all of the pros of the other characters but none of their big cons.

Ehh.. I do not think Chief being from a shooter would matter that much to Sakurai, especially when that is easily made up by his iconic status in the gaming community. For Steve, I do not think he would be going against a "fan-service focus" since there is a good possibility that he could have been notably voted by casual fans. I think the reasons you gave for Chief specifically would matter the least in the grand scheme of things. There is more to selecting newcomers than just adding one for one reason only, weighing down all the pros, cons, and difficulty of implementing a newcomer. Chief being a huge icon of Western gaming, his franchise being immensely impactful for the FPS genre, and his moveset potential would more than make up for the cons, of which could make Chief a very attracting inclusion to Sakurai as a surprise third-party addition.

 

[StormC]

Ehh.. I do not think Chief being from a shooter would matter that much to Sakurai, especially when that is easily made up by his iconic status in the gaming community. For Steve, I do not think he would be going against a "fan-service focus" since there is a good possibility that he could have been notably voted by casual fans. I think the reasons you gave for Chief specifically would matter the least in the grand scheme of things. There is more to selecting newcomers than just adding one for one reason only, weighing down all the pros, cons, and difficulty of implementing a newcomer. Chief being a huge icon of Western gaming, his franchise being immensely impactful for the FPS genre, and his moveset potential would more than make up for the cons, of which could make Chief a very attracting inclusion to Sakurai as a surprise third-party addition.

Sakurai isn't including the protagonist of a western third party FPS with next to 0 traction in Japanese fandom or culture at large.

I know you're banking on a "surprise" character for this game, but Chief ain't it. This scenario of "he would ignore the ballot and go for Chief" is making me think a lot of "he would ignore K. Rool and go for Dixie," or the hypothetical that he would add Ryu or Monster Hunter to base Smash 4 over Mega Man.

If Sakurai is going to Microsoft to get a character, I fully believe it's Banjo. You might think this is narrowminded but intentionally avoiding the popular and logical choice is also not really seeing the forest for the trees. The "Bomberman got AT'd but Simon got added" comparison doesn't really make sense because we have data suggesting Bomberman and Simon performed similarly on the ballot together. We don't have that for Banjo and Chief.