PYP mafia! Game over!

[#HBC | Nabe]

I forgot to send my safety PMs, but it turned out not to matter. For reference, Koops and Moydow, I'm not those roles that I mentioned, and Maven was never informed.

Shooting J is a really bizarre move that suggests safety play for the Day phase, at least on first blush.

 

[Thirdkoopa]

If you all want isolated posts for seeing where our cases start for the Seph lynch (this is the same stuff I told Maven):

Vult - #333; More about his PyP phase behavior
Z25 - #314-315 #404; More about his overall behavior and choosing to lynch
Shish - #377; pointed out a BIG contradiction over the PyP phase, along with overall behavior (trying to set up lynches, lowest hanging fruit, etc)
TK (me) - #429 and #474. My Seph ISO for different reasons starts at #397 and #403. My whole case had nothing to do with the PyP phase and far more to do with how he sets up non-committal lynches
Pokechu - #289. #570 and #576 where he puts the hammer.

Pokechu was with my reasoning. Z25 and I didn't like how he was pinpointing targets. Shish and Vult called him out for his Day 0 play. Hope this helps as a refresher.

 

[Thirdkoopa]

And to no one's surprise...

Just use the search bar and put in "This thread" along w/ the user you need. Good thing I took notes!

I forgot to send my safety PMs, but it turned out not to matter. For reference, Koops and Moydow, I'm not those roles that I mentioned, and Maven was never informed.

Shooting J is a really bizarre move that suggests safety play for the Day phase, at least on first blush.

Safety PMs? Feel free to not elaborate if it's not important. Never heard of this phrase.

Going to focus on fewer words and heavier points today. We've got a lot to work with thanks to Day 1 and 0.

 

[Z25]

Why the hell would Mafia shoot an inactive?
Also, why are our PRs always the inactive ones? remember when God Robert's Cousin was the damn vig and he was barely active? And then he got lynched for it? Good times

Anyways, seems me and the others I talked to aren't the only ones who are suspicious of Maven

Vote: Maven

He's our safest option at the moment and I don't think many will disagree on this. I'll leave the reasoning to you guys, I'm kinda tired at the moment.

The only logical thought I can think of is that they figured since fire subbed so early he had a power role. As usually subs don't come in til later in these games if needed.

Of course I could be wrong, but that's what came to mind first.

Alternatively perhaps one of the mafia got in contact with J and got him to spill his ability. I doubt a jailer would give away their ability night one though.

 

[Thirdkoopa]

Alternatively perhaps one of the mafia got in contact with J and got him to spill his ability. I doubt a jailer would give away their ability night one though.

I hate using login times but...

If you look at J's profile J hasn't logged in since Monday Morning so I doubt that's on the table. In addition, he was the only person I wasn't able to contact.

The possibility I was going to discuss was him getting bus-driven with someone else, but, I can't think of a good reason to discuss that right now.

 

[Vult Redux]

I forgot to send my safety PMs, but it turned out not to matter. For reference, Koops and Moydow, I'm not those roles that I mentioned, and Maven was never informed.

what about me???

re: kill - surprised but not disappointed... i have ideas but I don't want to comment on it much x:

 

[Deleted member]

The only logical thought I can think of is that they figured since fire subbed so early he had a power role. As usually subs don't come in til later in these games if needed.

Of course I could be wrong, but that's what came to mind first.

Alternatively perhaps one of the mafia got in contact with J and got him to spill his ability. I doubt a jailer would give away their ability night one though.

But Fire got replaced by Soup, not J. And J hasn't even been online and even if he was, I doubt he would conviniently talk only to the Mafia AND reveal his role like that.

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

The only logical thought I can think of is that they figured since fire subbed so early he had a power role. As usually subs don't come in til later in these games if needed.

Soup subbed for Fire. J has been in the game since the beginning.

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

what about me???

You can hold onto the hope, if you'd like. But for those two it was explicit to see if I got shot.

I completely forgot about the bus driver being a possibility, but I very much doubt that they would drive me.

 

[Deleted member]

Bus Driver
Makes sense someone would use J as a meatshield if that was the case but who would have been originally shot then?

 

[Deleted member]

I swear, every goddamn username has already been taken by inactive accounts

 

[Z25]

I hate using login times but...

If you look at J's profile J hasn't logged in since Monday Morning so I doubt that's on the table. In addition, he was the only person I wasn't able to contact.

The possibility I was going to discuss was him getting bus-driven with someone else, but, I can't think of a good reason to discuss that right now.

Oh I didn’t think to check that.

But Fire got replaced by Soup, not J. And J hasn't even been online and even if he was, I doubt he would conviniently talk only to the Mafia AND reveal his role like that.

Soup subbed for Fire. J has been in the game since the beginning.

Oh. I keep getting all the hbc #s mixed up, my mistake.

So then that is a really random mafia role. Did they just figure it was easier to kill an inactive, as it be hard to tell what led to that and who could have?

 

[Z25]

Bus Driver
Makes sense someone would use J as a meatshield if that was the case but who would have been originally shot then?

I swear, every goddamn username has already been taken by inactive accounts

Lmao of all the usernames to exist

 

[Z25]

Bus Driver
Makes sense someone would use J as a meatshield if that was the case but who would have been originally shot then?

Actually if that’s the case, why use the bus drive skillet to change the target?

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

Driver shouldn't claim if they exist, which seems likely. The shot was probably Koops, Chu, or if not, someone who crumbed.

 

[Fandangox]

Man scum really went with the safe play of shooting the inactive and got rewarded for it, huh?

Fandangox you still lookin at Nabe?
#HBC | Nabe wheres your head at after we nearly pushed a mislynch through?

Vote: Moydow

I am still looking at Nabe. None of my re-reads had done much to change my opinion on his play.

That said I'm willing to leave it aside for now due to Seph's flip and his and Maven's interactions.

 

[Fandangox]

Also we should NOT be discussing what happened to J right now, there's literally no way it doesn't end up in rolefishing

 

[Fandangox]

Maven's #401 is when he starts townreading Seph despite having him as a scumread before.

It was my reflection on his question and understanding what he was getting at, as well as no longer focusing so much on who was pushing poisoner. Also him dropping his Z25 read when that would be the easiest to push

This was his reasoning when prompted about it.

Now I can buy the Z25 part, but I don't see why Maven stopped looked into people that were pushing poisoner all of a sudden.

Maven89 answer my #472 why did you stop looking into people that pushed poisoner?

 

[Fandangox]

Seph - Leaning scum

Seph's read list looks agreeable on paper but I get a bad feeling from it. Feels like a mix of safe and OMGUS, the lack of outliers makes me suspect it's not entirely genuine. What I mean to say is, it feels manufactured because it's well-balanced in town-null-scum reads and throws people into said categories seemingly based on their opinion of him.

Particularly perturbed by Z25 being his biggest scumread yet Seph suddenly leans dumb town after the claim.

Don't get me wrong, I agree with this final assessment but I don't see the scumread being genuine before the claim either. I am fairly solid on Z25 at this point, for the record. I could see this being Seph giving himself a back-door should Z25 get lynched to say "well I started having second thoughts on it...."

ThirdKoopa - Mixed leaning scum

I dislike Koopa's formulaic play. Being concerned with people "pushing last minute wagon switches" is valid, but I fail to see why it was necessary to point out and agree with Nabe on it being strange and seeming like Koop's just reading from a textbook at times. I also really dislike him stating that he's okay with being lynched or vigged if that's what town wants to do. As far as I'm concerned, that's tantamount to claiming Vanilla Townie as it signals to the mafia you don't have a role worth trying to stay alive to use. Potentially worse than Z25's claim because Koops seems more experienced, more level-headed, and was under less pressure when he said this.

Those points aside, his answers with regards to my concern over his Hider support are reasonable to me. I believe him when he says he didn't think it through too much at first and needed time to realize the power of the role. Being honest, I don't think a one-shot jan is THAT much worse than what we gave mafia. I also like Koopa's scumhunting efforts so far. His recent reads list looks genuine where Seph's doesn't and I appreciate his attempt to find connections like the Nabe/Seph dichotomy with Fandango.

Why did you stay on the Third wagon despite having a stronger scumread on Seph at this point?

 

[Thirdkoopa]

what about me???

re: kill - surprised but not disappointed... i have ideas but I don't want to comment on it much x:

I'm curious to see when you post next.

Also we should NOT be discussing what happened to J right now, there's literally no way it doesn't end up in rolefishing

+1 endorsement

(which was why I didn't want to originally mention it anyways)

 

[Vult Redux]

I don't want to put too many of my cards out there too quick but he's a short version of where my head is.

People on the Seph wagon are town. This include me (tee-hee), Z25, ThirdKoopa, Shishoe, Pokechu. I don't want to sound arrogant but if at least two of us are alive at endgame, we win.

After that, it gets fuzzy. Maven, Moydow, Fand, Nabe, Kantrip, Soup are all technically on the list but I personally think some look worse than others. Also, some of you guys didn't reach out to me (to beg me for forgiveness obviously) Night 1 which is shady AF.

I want them to commit to reads on each other before I throw out my opinions.

 

[Deleted member]

I didn't message anyone this Night because I'm lazy lol
Only talked to Z25 and Koops because they messaged me first

 

[Vult Redux]

I didn't message anyone this Night because I'm lazy lol
Only talked to Z25 and Koops because they messaged me first

I wasn't calling you out... sorry if it sounded like that. Just the six I mentioned.

I am kind of curious about your thoughts but I think it's more important for other folks to weigh in first.

 

[#HBC | ѕoup]

Shishoe

Only one I'm hesistant on, what's your take on why he's town? Don't know if Seph genuinely goes at all townies like that but you won't see me building cases about Shishoe

 

[#HBC | ѕoup]

Town
Soup
Vult
Thirdkoopa
Pokechu
Z2S
Fandangox
Nabe
shishoe
J
Kantrip
Maven
Moydow
Scum

My reads before day started. I don't think there's honestly a game where I've townread Kantrip, and really he's only down there because I didn't have a strong feeling towards him than others. In a perfect world both Moy/Maven are scum and we get to go home but I'm leaning that as unlikely, and feeling that perhaps just one of them are scum and not both. This is based on nothing but guesswork, and then when it comes to my townreads Fanny is the one who I'd prob have the least confidence in along with Nabe, but I put Fanny above because he had moments earlier on where it really seemed like he had a fire lit under his ass and I felt good about it.

 

[Deleted member]

I wasn't calling you out... sorry if it sounded like that. Just the six I mentioned.

I am kind of curious about your thoughts but I think it's more important for other folks to weigh in first.

I'm on the Maven train of thought as well though I have some other stuff to say. You want them know or do you want 'em after others have given their opinions?

 

[#HBC | ѕoup]

Shishoe, who and what did you talk about Maven that got you coming to the conclusion I did as well? I only talked to Thirdkoopa and Kantrip basically at night; Nabe ghosted me

 

[Deleted member]

Shishoe, who and what did you talk about Maven that got you coming to the conclusion I did as well? I only talked to Thirdkoopa and Kantrip basically at night; Nabe ghosted me

I didn't message anyone this Night because I'm lazy lol
Only talked to Z25 and Koops because they messaged me first

 

[#HBC | ѕoup]

Alright well answer the first part my q about how you came to Maven conclusion

 

[Kantrip]

Why did you stay on the Third wagon despite having a stronger scumread on Seph at this point?

At the time it was because I thought Koopa still deserved the pressure and Seph's wagon was big enough.

Before deadline I absolutely should have switched to ensure the Seph lynch happened over the Koopa one. I take responsibility for being on the wrong wagon. To be clear, I wasn't confident that either of them being scum and was fine with lynching either but was doubting the Koopa lynch right before deadline because I felt I was in bad compamy on it. Unfortunately I was in class and had to put my phone away before I could decide to switch, and I understand that makes me look bad considering the circumstances.

 

[Kantrip]

I only talked to 2 people, one of which reached out to me.

Why was everyone supposed to talk to you, Vult?

 

[Deleted member]

Alright well answer the first part my q about how you came to Maven conclusion

He was in the back of my mind mostly as "worth a check" but Koops and Z25 made some points that made me reconsider him as a more likely Scum.
I was mainly thinking of Nabe before but I saw it hard to see him as partners with Seph(even if not impossible) but Maven as Seph's partner makes a lot more sense after that reconsideration.

 

[#HBC | ѕoup]

He was in the back of my mind mostly as "worth a check" but Koops and Z25 made some points that made me reconsider him as a more likely Scum.
I was mainly thinking of Nabe before but I saw it hard to see him as partners with Seph(even if not impossible) but Maven as Seph's partner makes a lot more sense after that reconsideration.

Not trying to badger you with incessant questions cause I don't like it when it happens to me but can you c+p what they said if you don't wanna paraphrase it (dunno if this is allowed)

 

[Deleted member]

Not trying to badger you with incessant questions cause I don't like it when it happens to me but can you c+p what they said if you don't wanna paraphrase it (dunno if this is allowed)

I'd rather have Thirdkoopa himself handle that since they are his arguments after all.

 

[Thirdkoopa]

Looking through what I said to Shish first and then I'll get to my ISO notes:

I mainly started by asking how Maven and Nabe play. Once him and Pokechu assured me that the only thing was reliable was that he's a busy person, I figured "y'know, his reads list is awfully inconsistent" and pointed that out to Seph. The biggest inconsistency that probably got Shish to reconsider: He did a 180 on Seph, Nabe, Z25, and me. I didn't even notice the Z25 one until it was pointed out.

I'll gladly unpack the whole case, but, I'm first willing to see if he responds. If he wants a short version:
-Everything Day 0 was pushed as hard as I did (and don't try to bury what I did Day 0 or I will push back like I did with Seph)
-Everything Day 1 can only be described as Anti-Town play. Dude may just be busy and I understand and respect that that, but, it still gives me a lot more Seph vibes than "I have the best interest of the Town; please believe me" vibes.

Beyond that, I'm doubting Nabe+Maven scum team. One can be scum but probably not both.

 

[Thirdkoopa]

Just another thought real quick: I don't want to discredit his work on Day 0; I just don't want to overstate it too, especially since all of the reasons anyone (myself included) was reading him as pro-town earlier was because of roles. Roles are nice and all, but, when it comes to his scumhunting, it feels a lot more like Seph's than anything else.

I'm not solidified on Maven being the lynch - Like I did with Seph, I want to give him+Moydow+others the chance to speak, but, I want to hear from everyone; particularly those not on the Seph wagon.

I'm going to try to make sure no question goes unnoticed if possible.

 

[Vult Redux]

IWhy was everyone supposed to talk to you, Vult?

Cause I really fooled myself into thinking people would think I'm confirmed town and would be rushing to spill their thoughts, roles, and actions to me...

I'm not saying no one talked to me. Just didn't get as much information as I expected.

I'm curious about how Fand responds to your explanation. I see him ask a lot of questions... The way Day 1 ended with his vote on Nabe is also... unfortunate.

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

To my memory Shish got on Seph fairly early. I don't know if he went hard or went quiet on the vote, that is certainly possible, and could certainly be verified by reading.

 

[Fandangox]

At the time it was because I thought Koopa still deserved the pressure and Seph's wagon was big enough.

Before deadline I absolutely should have switched to ensure the Seph lynch happened over the Koopa one. I take responsibility for being on the wrong wagon. To be clear, I wasn't confident that either of them being scum and was fine with lynching either but was doubting the Koopa lynch right before deadline because I felt I was in bad compamy on it. Unfortunately I was in class and had to put my phone away before I could decide to switch, and I understand that makes me look bad considering the circumstances.

Why would you think Koopa deserved the pressure if at that point you had him as a mixed scum and your biggest scumread's lynch was in there in the corner.

In #492 you said you doubted both were scum, but were willing to entertain their arguments as TvT... despite the fact that you were scumreading both of them later.

Like given what you said it'd make no sense to just not switch to the seph wagon.

 

[Kantrip]

Why would you think Koopa deserved the pressure if at that point you had him as a mixed scum and your biggest scumread's lynch was in there in the corner.

In #492 you said you doubted both were scum, but were willing to entertain their arguments as TvT... despite the fact that you were scumreading both of them later.

Like given what you said it'd make no sense to just not switch to the seph wagon.

I was scumreading them both because I thought both of them had points towards them being scum. Yes I also thought (and still do) that they weren't scum together, which also means that I assumed one of my scumreads was wrong.

While Seph didn't have town points for anything in my read on him, and Koopa was mixed, there wasn't a vast difference in my opinion on the two of them. Definitely nothing I was particularly confident in, I just knew the lynch should definitely be between them.

You are right that I should have been on Seph. My reason for not switching was just to keep both as viable lynch options and get people's stances to make them pick between them. Since I created a viable alternative to the Seph lynch, I honestly believe scum was on the Koopa wagon and we benefited from giving them hope that they could save their mate. I realize this applies to me as well and I would be pressuring someone in my position as well for not switching at deadline, especially when my words implied I was having second thoughts about Koopa scum.

In hindsight, I wish I had switched to Seph but I am glad it didn't end up mattering thanks to soup and Pokechu and Vult who were all either directly or indirectly responsible for Seph being ahead of Koopa in votes.