Myself trying to maintain more level-headed and optimistic analysis of the Switch, I'm going to speculate what I think Nintendo's Year 1 aim is.
Basically, I think they're aiming for a sort of tiered approach. They've said that Day 1 is intended for their more dedicated crowd. I get the feeling that they're intending to ensure that the hardcore community doesn't eat into the casual community's potential sales by getting those purchases out of the way during the first half of the year so that Nintendo is free to judge how many units are needed during the holidays.
While their game approach is more intended to stave off droughts, it's also a bit interesting in the span of this. Zelda, Splatoon, and Mario are all likely to solely sell a system to some people to the point that they wouldn't pick one up without it, and they're spaced wide apart from each of each other. This also allows different crowds to not trample over each other and gives Nintendo more time to judge what demand there is for what game.
If the Switch starts faltering, then combined with Nintendo ordering only what they need at a time it gives them time to catch on to it earlier and figure out what needs to be done to fix it faster. If the Switch ends up becoming a runaway hit by some means, this makes it a little easier for them to keep up with it since there isn't quite as much fuel on the fire at once.
One thing to note is that they're still supporting the 3DS this year as a backup plan in case the Switch crumbles, as well as an option at another price point for those unwilling to purchase the Switch due to it's price being high by their own admission. I almost wonder if they would use the 3DS to buy time until the price for Switch parts lowers and they can sell the Switch for profit while still lowering it's price, considering the way people talk about how fast tech prices are dropping and Nintendo isn't grossly overbuying Switch parts the way they did Wii U parts.
Interestingly, despite not having quite the full brunt of their teams moved over yet, the first ten months of the Switch still have more high profile first party support than the equivalent on the Wii U and 3DS combined. I mean. . .somehow I doubt Nintendoland and Steel Diver are as much of a lure as Zelda, Mario, and Splatoon, never mind that even a Mario Kart port and more niche titles like Xenoblade and Fire Emblem Warriors have more oomph to them than offerings like that. And for those that want a multiplayer minigame collection or something more experimental, you still get 1-2-Switch and ARMS.
I think the point that we'll really start to see what the Switch has to offer for us is in 2018, possibly shown off at E3 to an extent this year although since most of the already revealed titles are post-E3 they might give most of the above games the majority of the screen time and wait until a later Direct to share more or fully show later things off. I think 2018 will be the point that A. The majority of the 3DS teams start finally putting titles onto the Switch should it not have completely flopped and B. That teams with games that are taking a bit longer or were shelved to prioritize Year 1's offerings will begin to release their output.
If Nintendo can increase their output from what they already are giving us, the Switch could be very interesting, and there's still enough teams unaccounted for that I can see that happening.
But for now, it's Nintendo's job to advertise the system in the meanwhile. They seem to be stockpiling their resources in punches, only advertising either to their own community or in extremely mainstream single instance bursts. I imagine mainstream advertising outside of these bursts probably will not start until the determined core gamer adoption phase is deemed over, as Nintendo has stated they want to spend less on advertising and more subtle attempts seem like they wouldn't be that fruitful until Nintendo actually could guarantee that they have systems to offer. I'm interested to see what kind of impact the Superbowl ad will have on the Switch's demand.