Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[TeamFlareZakk]

Well as the other guy said then believe what you want.

I believe Medusa is in.

 

[ganondorf_22]

I believe Medusa is in.

I believe that we will win.

 

[TeamFlareZakk]

I believe that we will win.

Indeed, we will win with Medusa.

 

[EricTheGamerman]

I wonder if they’ll save certain characters for DLC in a different way than most people are thinking about them. In the past DLC cycle we saw several characters end up being based off of other fighters, so maybe the priority in the base game was to some of those that are less realizable using in game assets? Ridley, Inkling, Simon Belmont, and King K Rool all seem pretty difficult to achieve on existing characters. Possible, but they’re all going to have some pretty different properties with maybe Rool being the easiest to base off of another.

The only unique that isn’t like that is Isabelle, and she has the breakout star status to demand inclusion sooner rather than later/may have been briefly considered an Echo before deciding it was better to make her unique.

Some of the fan favorites can easily use other characters as a base. Bandannas Dee could use Kirby, Isaac could basically use any swordsman if the Psyenergy mechanics aren’t too difficult to implement. Geno for the Mii gunner, Sora and Lloyd could use sword fighter bases, maybe even Game and Watch got Paper Mario (that one is the biggest stretch though)?

The idea just seems like a good compromise between the whole strange abscense of fan demanded characters (of which a good portion of the top polling are still completely MIA, some of which are far from guaranteed priority though) and the difficulties of developing unique characters.


All of that said, I don’t agree Geno makes sense as the DLC pick. He’s a niche fan favorite. We’ve seen how much of the DLC for Smash 4 became these big fan fare cross over moments, so I’d expect some of those still as well. Geno may not have the big name DLC draw of a lot of other characters, certainly not others from Square. The base game has already sold itself to basically everyone besides the handful of fans desperately holding out for character x or y, so there isn’t a huge need to make money from the base in the same way. He’s a very special character to fans, and as primarily the fan darling, I think it does make sense to include him in the game marketed so heavily for the fans. Square isn’t going to make much money off of him no matter what happens, so I don’t think the DLC argument is all that big. It’s still basically just the rights for the character and maybe a tiny portion of those DLC sales (though admittedly I don’t know how DLC sales are dealt with from the license holders for third party owned characters).

Also, Steve is far from confirmed or even likely to be honest, and I’m not convinced Incineroar is either, though he’s the most likely Pokémon company shill at this point given the anime.

 

[AquaSol]

I hate to say it, but I honestly believe in the Box Theory. It made total sense to me once I considered Smashdown. I assume that up to four players can participate, so the roster has to be divisible by 2, 3, and 4. Pokemon Trainer counts as one character in this mode, and I assume that the Miis are as well. The echoes are also considered their own characters.

So 68 - 4 (Squirtle, Ivysaur, Mii Gunner, Mii Brawler) + 6 (Chrom, Dark Samus, Dark Pit, Lucina, Daisy, Richter) = 70. 72 is the closest number divisible by 2, 3, and 4. There's room for two more newcomers per the Box Theory - Ken and Incineroar. The only way I think this could be wrong is if the Miis are considered separate characters, or if Smashdown is available for only 2 players and 4 players. It also makes me wonder how DLC characters will influence this mode.

I really hope I'm wrong. I want Isaac, Skull Kid, Dixie Kong, Chorus Kids, and Steve (mainly to see this fanbase break), among a few others. But I'm beginning to set some low expectations.

 

[TheCJBrine]

I don't see Smashdown Theory as valid.

Not only does it not take into account playing the mode before you unlock everyone, but it ignores DLC messing it up.

 

[Aeon Lupin]

I don't see Smashdown Theory as valid.

Not only does it not take into account playing the mode before you unlock everyone, but it ignores DLC messing it up.

To be fair, Sakurai has said he and his team don't even think about DLC until they've finished the base game.

 

[TheCJBrine]

To be fair, Sakurai has said he and his team don't even think about DLC until they've finished the base game.

That's true.

I'll also note, though, that the Miis may not be in the mode; the concept in the Smashdown portion of the 8/8 direct didn't have the Miis.

 

[TeamFlareZakk]

Predictions of characters who I believe to be all in.

Newcomers: Skull Kid, Geno, Isaac, Incineroar, Elma, Bandana Dee

Echos: Medusa, Ken, Dixie, Shadow, Ninten or Claus

New stages: Aether Paradise ( with Lusamine in the backround ), Underworld ( like Dragula castle many bosses appear they are Twinbellows, Hewdraw, and Pandora just like the boss faunlet in Medusa's castle ), Forest Maze ( hopefully without Bowyer because his button canceling gimmick would be annoying ), Mercury Lighthouse ( Saturos appears as a boss )

Other stages that I would love to see: K Rool's Keep ( Castle Crush ), Bowser's Keep ( as some sort of scrolling stage with the last part being the battle on the chandeliers ), Turtle Rock ( that area in the dark world near Ganon's tower with the Lynels ), A stage based off Bowser's Dark World from Super Mario 3 because skulls and fire are cool.

 

[AquaSol]

I don't see Smashdown Theory as valid.

Not only does it not take into account playing the mode before you unlock everyone, but it ignores DLC messing it up.

Good point, I didn’t even think of the unlocking part. Now I’m really interested as to how it’ll work lol

 

[TeamFlareZakk]

I don't see Smashdown Theory as valid.

Not only does it not take into account playing the mode before you unlock everyone, but it ignores DLC messing it up.

Not really.. DLC characters will just add on when you get them just as the did in Smash 4 so maybe they cant be in SmashDown.. Instead they are in the other mode called Smash RAW.

 

[TheCJBrine]

Not really.. DLC characters will just add on when you get them just as the did in Smash 4 so maybe they cant be in SmashDown.. Instead they are in the other mode called Smash RAW.

That would mean Smash Down is only playable when you unlock everyone.

 

[TeamFlareZakk]

That would mean Smash Down is only playable when you unlock everyone.

Maybe.

 

[RileyXY1]

I don't see Smashdown Theory as valid.

Not only does it not take into account playing the mode before you unlock everyone, but it ignores DLC messing it up.

Yeah. Not only that, it implies that SmashDown can only be played with four people when that is not the case.

 

[SonicMario]

If I had to guess how Smashdown will work. Is in the exceptions of the cases where the roster is a perfectly divisible number by the number of players. The game just ends once there are more players then there are characters left.

That, or a player will be eliminated (Whoever lost the most games and/or has the least points) in order to make it so it still works down until the final two characters.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Predictions of characters who I believe to be all in.

Newcomers: Skull Kid, Geno, Isaac, Incineroar, Elma, Bandana Dee

Echos: Medusa, Ken, Dixie, Shadow, Ninten or Claus

New stages: Aether Paradise ( with Lusamine in the backround ), Underworld ( like Dragula castle many bosses appear they are Twinbellows, Hewdraw, and Pandora just like the boss faunlet in Medusa's castle ), Forest Maze ( hopefully without Bowyer because his button canceling gimmick would be annoying ), Mercury Lighthouse ( Saturos appears as a boss )

Other stages that I would love to see: K Rool's Keep ( Castle Crush ), Bowser's Keep ( as some sort of scrolling stage with the last part being the battle on the chandeliers ), Turtle Rock ( that area in the dark world near Ganon's tower with the Lynels ), A stage based off Bowser's Dark World from Super Mario 3 because skulls and fire are cool.

Now you’re claiming 11 characters? What about your box theory?

 

[bilbo1993]

I am just curious if the rate their chances thread is the only one of its type on the entire smash forums.
I feel the rate their chances actual odds can be very subjective, no real measuring stick to base any wants and chance odds we throw into the mix.
What i feel may be another way to project the smash communitys predictions is to have a ranked order of say 5 to 8 fighters.
The reasons why i feel ranking fighters is better for spitting out our likely newcomers for ultimate or future additions:
1. Picking just one character like the smash ballot meant people were voting for say doctor luigi who they really wanted but has little chance of making, yet their second choice dixie has now lost a potential vote which may be the difference in sakurais decision making process.

2. You remove that war between characters ie krool v ridley, where people are choosing sides. In this way you can rank them 1 and 2 since they really were both deserving of a chance to be honest.

3. Having set weights it creates an actual measuring stick. In the rate their chances you find some pessimists and optimists obscure a lot of votes. Also it means peoples despise/love for a character can really cause an irratic result by voting high or low purposely to obscure the results.

4. Obscure characters will fall behind. Everyone has their obscure predictions but it is rare for them to be able to outrank some of the more hardcore choices among fans. Having a list also means that youll likely get at least half serious suggestions and if someone wants to throw in a shrek or goku they wont be consistent with other obscure picks and the serious picks will get the higher rankings.

Sorry for the ramble. Just something that i had thoughts about and wanted to share to hear peoples thoughts.

 

[TeamFlareZakk]

Now you’re claiming 11 characters? What about your box theory?

Well I mentioned 11 out of the 12 characters we are getting, who did I miss? Who could that final 12th spot go to?

 

[GoodGrief741]

Well I mentioned 11 out of the 12 characters we are getting, who did I miss? Who could that final 12th spot go to?

You formerly mentioned Incineroar, Ken, Skull Kid, Elma, Bandanna Dee, Shadow, Isaac, Medusa, Black Knight, Octoling, Black Shadow, Dixie Kong, and Geno. You later added Sora. That makes 14, according to you the two missing from the box, plus another row of 12.

Now you removed Sora, Black Knight, Octoling, and Black Shadow, and added Ninten/Claus. Making 11.

How do you conciliate your two theories?

 

[zferolie]

So we got Wii fit trainer yesterday and then Dr Mario today. Have we ever gotten 2 reveals back to back?

 

[GoodGrief741]

So we got Wii fit trainer yesterday and then Dr Mario today. Have we ever gotten 2 reveals back to back?

I think we have. Can’t remember specifics though.

 

[TeamFlareZakk]

You formerly mentioned Incineroar, Ken, Skull Kid, Elma, Bandanna Dee, Shadow, Isaac, Medusa, Black Knight, Octoling, Black Shadow, Dixie Kong, and Geno. You later added Sora. That makes 14, according to you the two missing from the box, plus another row of 12.

Now you removed Sora, Black Knight, Octoling, and Black Shadow, and added Ninten/Claus. Making 11.

How do you conciliate your two theories?

First off I would nod and say each character from both of my said theories are very likely to happen, consider that particular 11 as some sort of main 11.

The one character I am very confident in is Medusa, I chose her as a character to follow because I really do want her and I figured there would be a ton of fake leaks that wouldnt mention her, there is a villains theme and Kid Icarus is one of Sakurai's games.. So far I pretty much seen but a few with Medusa, but there was a first rumor, so I usually only match characters that I saw in that first Medusa rumor.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Hopefully either today between Thursday we get a announcement for a character trailer or whatever

If the trend of the playlist theory is correct we should get a announcement today because 10 days after the playlist gets updated that’s usually when the the reveal trailer airs

 

[Door Key Pig]

First off I would nod and say each character from both of my said theories are very likely to happen, consider that particular 11 as some sort of main 11.

The one character I am very confident in is Medusa, I chose her as a character to follow because I really do want her and I figured there would be a ton of fake leaks that wouldnt mention her, there is a villains theme and Kid Icarus is one of Sakurai's games.. So far I pretty much seen but a few with Medusa, but there was a first rumor, so I usually only match characters that I saw in that first Medusa rumor.

I'd put some stock (though not really betting on it) in Medusa cause she could use Palutena's Smash 4 customs and that thing with her voice actress on Twitter.

 

[TeamFlareZakk]

I'd put some stock (though not really betting on it) in Medusa cause she could use Palutena's Smash 4 customs and that thing with her voice actress on Twitter.

I believe Sakurai would wants to represent Kid Icarus the best he can and the one thing missing that would indeed do just that is its IIconic antagonist Medusa.

Face the facts, Medusa will definitely be a echo fighter of Palutena in Super Smash Bros Ultimate and you can believe that. #MedusaForSmashUltimate #BelieveInMedusa

 

[FancySmash]

I believe Sakurai would wants to represent Kid Icarus the best he can and the one thing missing that would indeed do just that is its IIconic antagonist Medusa.

Face the facts, Medusa will definitely be a echo fighter of Palutena in Super Smash Bros Ultimate and you can believe that. #MedusaForSmashUltimate #BelieveInMedusa

Chance? Quite possible. But definitely? If I've learned anything from following Smash character predictions, it's never to assume something is sure fire. Just look at Smash 4's DLC. After seeing Roy and Lucas return after getting Mewtwo, everyone assumed Wolf would be a guaranteed. Well... that didn't turn out like we'd thought.

 

[Door Key Pig]

Like even though this is THE shot the Chorus Kids have, I'm not 100% EXPECTING them to be in, just hoping?

 

[TeamFlareZakk]

Yes I am indeed very confident Medusa will be in, and I do hope both Medusa and Isaac are added.

 

[xzx]

The question is: Will Paper Mario FINALLY join the roster this time??

 

[Dan]

The toxicity of the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame nominees is so akin that of Smash newcomers; like literally just replace Judas Priest with Geno or something, lol.

 

[AnOkayDM]

I've been thinking a lot about the final base roster lately, and I wanted to write it all down to help me process my thoughts. I guess I'll just post it all here for kicks, and we'll see how accurate I am.

The way I see it, we have between two (box theory) and six (blog theory) characters left in the base game. In addition, I currently see no reason to doubt Vergeben, as he's been accurate up until now. So I'm going to make a prediction for each possible number of characters between two and six, along with some reasoning for those choices.

Two Characters Remaining

• (60ε) Ken
• (69) Incineroar

These line up with Vergeben's statements and the box theory. In this scenario, the Square Enix character ends up as early DLC.

Three Characters Remaining

• (60ε) Ken
• (69) Incineroar
• (70) Geno

Personally, I think Geno is the likeliest Square Enix character to be on the base roster. Sakurai wants him, he's been popular for years, and I don't think there's any chance Sakurai got the rights to him just for one appearance as a Mii costume, when we know he started planning Ultimate before the DLC for Smash 4 was even finished.

Four Characters Remaining

• (38ε) Shadow
• (60ε) Ken
• (69) Incineroar
• (70) Geno

I think Shadow's AT being replaced (or at least unrevealed up until now) means something, and with the concept of echoes being introduced this game, he just seems like such an obvious and popular choice. I would be shocked if he was just gone entirely.

Five Characters Remaining

• (38ε) Shadow
• (60ε) Ken
• (69) Skull Kid
• (70) Incineroar
• (71) Geno

Despite him being my most wanted character now that we've gotten Ridley and Simon, I think I've been pretty levelheaded about Skull Kid's chances. Obviously his AT has been replaced just like Shadow's, so it's pretty clear that he has some other role in the game. The only question is, playable or boss? Honestly, I'm torn either way, but in the previous three scenarios, I would say boss. But if we have five characters remaining, I think Skull Kid is one of them. I know it may be a long shot, but I can't stop seeing that furniture in Sakurai's office being his exact color scheme, and the fact that we haven't seen Young Link's Final Smash is giving me pause as well; they may be holding off to reveal it alongside Skull Kid himself. I even think this theory is a little stronger due to the fact that they announced Greninja's FS tonight when we hadn't seen it yet and the fact that they did the same for Wolf as well when they posted about him on the blog; when Young Link was posted on the blog, they made no mention of his Final Smash, despite him never having had one before. Add to all of that the fact that Skull Kid, compared to other bosses in Smash history, really makes no sense as a boss fight.

I placed Skull Kid in the 69 slot in this scenario because the reveal timing makes too much sense. October would be a perfect time to reveal him, and if the furniture is really a tease or hint for the imp, I can't see them putting off his reveal for too much longer. If we accept that Sakurai's office was decorated for King K. Rool back at E3, then interestingly enough, the character he was teasing wasn't the next reveal, since that honor went to Simon. But King K. Rool was the next unique reveal after that. The same could hold true here: Sakurai decorates his office for Skull Kid in August, Isabelle is revealed next, and then we get Skull Kid after that.

Six Characters Remaining

• (38ε) Shadow
• (60ε) Ken
• (69) Skull Kid
• (70) Isaac
• (71) Incineroar
• (72) Geno

Isaac is the other character I feel has been teased by Sakurai, with that picture he specifically tweeted of Rathalos and the Golden Sun camera angle. I want to believe the guy knows what he's doing when it comes to these teases, and more than that, I believe that Isaac fans have waited long enough for...well, for their time in the sun. Thus far, the unique newcomer reveals have alternated between heroes and villains, with Inkling, then Ridley, then Simon, then King K. Rool, then Isabelle. I kept Skull Kid in the 69 slot and put Isaac in 70; this way, we keep this "pattern" going until the very end, with Incineroar qualifying as a villain due to his persona as a heel. It could also go Incineroar -> Isaac -> Skull Kid, but I still think Skull Kid makes the most sense to be revealed next.

This scenario appeals to me the most, not just because it gets us the largest amount of characters, but also because it ends on a nice couple of round numbers. The final total would be 80 characters, and the unique total would be 72, with exactly 8 echoes. That doesn't make it likely, since no other Smash game has ended with a nice round number besides Smash 64, but it sure is appealing. It also gets completely demolished the moment we add DLC into the mix. I'm not gonna delve into my DLC predictions right now, but I might once the game gets closer to launch and we see what the rest of the characters look like. For now, those are my predictions.

Thanks for reading my wall!

 

[Door Key Pig]

I'd go with that but with a Rhythm Heaven rep in place of Skull Kid or at least Isaac.

 

[ShadowYoshi04]

Oh boy. I've been waiting for this.

I've changed my roster a lot, but here are my final predictions:

Unique: Geno, Bandana Dee, Banjo and Kazooie
Echoes: Shadow the Hedgehog, Ken

 

[TeamFlareZakk]

I'd go with that but with a Rhythm Heaven rep in place of Skull Kid or at least Isaac.

Would really love to see the Rhythm Heaven character be Ringside Reporter, because wrestling.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

I've been thinking a lot about the final base roster lately, and I wanted to write it all down to help me process my thoughts. I guess I'll just post it all here for kicks, and we'll see how accurate I am.

The way I see it, we have between two (box theory) and six (blog theory) characters left in the base game. In addition, I currently see no reason to doubt Vergeben, as he's been accurate up until now. So I'm going to make a prediction for each possible number of characters between two and six, along with some reasoning for those choices.

Two Characters Remaining

• (60ε) Ken
• (69) Incineroar

These line up with Vergeben's statements and the box theory. In this scenario, the Square Enix character ends up as early DLC.

Three Characters Remaining

• (60ε) Ken
• (69) Incineroar
• (70) Geno

Personally, I think Geno is the likeliest Square Enix character to be on the base roster. Sakurai wants him, he's been popular for years, and I don't think there's any chance Sakurai got the rights to him just for one appearance as a Mii costume, when we know he started planning Ultimate before the DLC for Smash 4 was even finished.

Four Characters Remaining

• (38ε) Shadow
• (60ε) Ken
• (69) Incineroar
• (70) Geno

I think Shadow's AT being replaced (or at least unrevealed up until now) means something, and with the concept of echoes being introduced this game, he just seems like such an obvious and popular choice. I would be shocked if he was just gone entirely.

Five Characters Remaining

• (38ε) Shadow
• (60ε) Ken
• (69) Skull Kid
• (70) Incineroar
• (71) Geno

Despite him being my most wanted character now that we've gotten Ridley and Simon, I think I've been pretty levelheaded about Skull Kid's chances. Obviously his AT has been replaced just like Shadow's, so it's pretty clear that he has some other role in the game. The only question is, playable or boss? Honestly, I'm torn either way, but in the previous three scenarios, I would say boss. But if we have five characters remaining, I think Skull Kid is one of them. I know it may be a long shot, but I can't stop seeing that furniture in Sakurai's office being his exact color scheme, and the fact that we haven't seen Young Link's Final Smash is giving me pause as well; they may be holding off to reveal it alongside Skull Kid himself. I even think this theory is a little stronger due to the fact that they announced Greninja's FS tonight when we hadn't seen it yet and the fact that they did the same for Wolf as well when they posted about him on the blog; when Young Link was posted on the blog, they made no mention of his Final Smash, despite him never having had one before. Add to all of that the fact that Skull Kid, compared to other bosses in Smash history, really makes no sense as a boss fight.

I placed Skull Kid in the 69 slot in this scenario because the reveal timing makes too much sense. October would be a perfect time to reveal him, and if the furniture is really a tease or hint for the imp, I can't see them putting off his reveal for too much longer. If we accept that Sakurai's office was decorated for King K. Rool back at E3, then interestingly enough, the character he was teasing wasn't the next reveal, since that honor went to Simon. But King K. Rool was the next unique reveal after that. The same could hold true here: Sakurai decorates his office for Skull Kid in August, Isabelle is revealed next, and then we get Skull Kid after that.

Six Characters Remaining

• (38ε) Shadow
• (60ε) Ken
• (69) Skull Kid
• (70) Isaac
• (71) Incineroar
• (72) Geno

Isaac is the other character I feel has been teased by Sakurai, with that picture he specifically tweeted of Rathalos and the Golden Sun camera angle. I want to believe the guy knows what he's doing when it comes to these teases, and more than that, I believe that Isaac fans have waited long enough for...well, for their time in the sun. Thus far, the unique newcomer reveals have alternated between heroes and villains, with Inkling, then Ridley, then Simon, then King K. Rool, then Isabelle. I kept Skull Kid in the 69 slot and put Isaac in 70; this way, we keep this "pattern" going until the very end, with Incineroar qualifying as a villain due to his persona as a heel. It could also go Incineroar -> Isaac -> Skull Kid, but I still think Skull Kid makes the most sense to be revealed next.

This scenario appeals to me the most, not just because it gets us the largest amount of characters, but also because it ends on a nice couple of round numbers. The final total would be 80 characters, and the unique total would be 72, with exactly 8 echoes. That doesn't make it likely, since no other Smash game has ended with a nice round number besides Smash 64, but it sure is appealing. It also gets completely demolished the moment we add DLC into the mix. I'm not gonna delve into my DLC predictions right now, but I might once the game gets closer to launch and we see what the rest of the characters look like. For now, those are my predictions.

Thanks for reading my wall!

Yep I agree if for each of those numbers of remaining characters

I would say the four remaining one is the most likely in my opinion but I could be the 5

I think diving into dlc the 6 remaining I say all of them will make it from this

 

[letsgetsmashing]

I hate to say it, but I honestly believe in the Box Theory. It made total sense to me once I considered Smashdown. I assume that up to four players can participate, so the roster has to be divisible by 2, 3, and 4. Pokemon Trainer counts as one character in this mode, and I assume that the Miis are as well. The echoes are also considered their own characters.

So 68 - 4 (Squirtle, Ivysaur, Mii Gunner, Mii Brawler) + 6 (Chrom, Dark Samus, Dark Pit, Lucina, Daisy, Richter) = 70. 72 is the closest number divisible by 2, 3, and 4. There's room for two more newcomers per the Box Theory - Ken and Incineroar. The only way I think this could be wrong is if the Miis are considered separate characters, or if Smashdown is available for only 2 players and 4 players. It also makes me wonder how DLC characters will influence this mode.

I really hope I'm wrong. I want Isaac, Skull Kid, Dixie Kong, Chorus Kids, and Steve (mainly to see this fanbase break), among a few others. But I'm beginning to set some low expectations.

You make a good point here, but I wonder if both the character being echoed and the echo fighter would be able to be selected if you chose to stack them rather then spread them apart. I bet you would only play one because the entire character slot would just be used. That completely changes the statistics.

 

[TheCJBrine]

You make a good point here, but I wonder if both the character being echoed and the echo fighter would be able to be selected if you chose to stack them rather then spread them apart. I bet you would only play one because the entire character slot would just be used. That completely changes the statistics.

The echo fighter has an icon in the corner of the echoed character's portrait; I think selecting the icon switches the portrait between the two.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

I hate to say it, but I honestly believe in the Box Theory. It made total sense to me once I considered Smashdown. I assume that up to four players can participate, so the roster has to be divisible by 2, 3, and 4. Pokemon Trainer counts as one character in this mode, and I assume that the Miis are as well. The echoes are also considered their own characters.

So 68 - 4 (Squirtle, Ivysaur, Mii Gunner, Mii Brawler) + 6 (Chrom, Dark Samus, Dark Pit, Lucina, Daisy, Richter) = 70. 72 is the closest number divisible by 2, 3, and 4. There's room for two more newcomers per the Box Theory - Ken and Incineroar. The only way I think this could be wrong is if the Miis are considered separate characters, or if Smashdown is available for only 2 players and 4 players. It also makes me wonder how DLC characters will influence this mode.

I really hope I'm wrong. I want Isaac, Skull Kid, Dixie Kong, Chorus Kids, and Steve (mainly to see this fanbase break), among a few others. But I'm beginning to set some low expectations.

Ofcoarse it’s wrong

The moment dlc hits the number will be broken the only way to get that number again is if there’s 12 dlc characters and that number is a little big

 

[Aeon Lupin]

I've been thinking a lot about the final base roster lately, and I wanted to write it all down to help me process my thoughts. I guess I'll just post it all here for kicks, and we'll see how accurate I am.

The way I see it, we have between two (box theory) and six (blog theory) characters left in the base game. In addition, I currently see no reason to doubt Vergeben, as he's been accurate up until now. So I'm going to make a prediction for each possible number of characters between two and six, along with some reasoning for those choices.

Two Characters Remaining

• (60ε) Ken
• (69) Incineroar

These line up with Vergeben's statements and the box theory. In this scenario, the Square Enix character ends up as early DLC.

Three Characters Remaining

• (60ε) Ken
• (69) Incineroar
• (70) Geno

Personally, I think Geno is the likeliest Square Enix character to be on the base roster. Sakurai wants him, he's been popular for years, and I don't think there's any chance Sakurai got the rights to him just for one appearance as a Mii costume, when we know he started planning Ultimate before the DLC for Smash 4 was even finished.

Four Characters Remaining

• (38ε) Shadow
• (60ε) Ken
• (69) Incineroar
• (70) Geno

I think Shadow's AT being replaced (or at least unrevealed up until now) means something, and with the concept of echoes being introduced this game, he just seems like such an obvious and popular choice. I would be shocked if he was just gone entirely.

Five Characters Remaining

• (38ε) Shadow
• (60ε) Ken
• (69) Skull Kid
• (70) Incineroar
• (71) Geno

Despite him being my most wanted character now that we've gotten Ridley and Simon, I think I've been pretty levelheaded about Skull Kid's chances. Obviously his AT has been replaced just like Shadow's, so it's pretty clear that he has some other role in the game. The only question is, playable or boss? Honestly, I'm torn either way, but in the previous three scenarios, I would say boss. But if we have five characters remaining, I think Skull Kid is one of them. I know it may be a long shot, but I can't stop seeing that furniture in Sakurai's office being his exact color scheme, and the fact that we haven't seen Young Link's Final Smash is giving me pause as well; they may be holding off to reveal it alongside Skull Kid himself. I even think this theory is a little stronger due to the fact that they announced Greninja's FS tonight when we hadn't seen it yet and the fact that they did the same for Wolf as well when they posted about him on the blog; when Young Link was posted on the blog, they made no mention of his Final Smash, despite him never having had one before. Add to all of that the fact that Skull Kid, compared to other bosses in Smash history, really makes no sense as a boss fight.

I placed Skull Kid in the 69 slot in this scenario because the reveal timing makes too much sense. October would be a perfect time to reveal him, and if the furniture is really a tease or hint for the imp, I can't see them putting off his reveal for too much longer. If we accept that Sakurai's office was decorated for King K. Rool back at E3, then interestingly enough, the character he was teasing wasn't the next reveal, since that honor went to Simon. But King K. Rool was the next unique reveal after that. The same could hold true here: Sakurai decorates his office for Skull Kid in August, Isabelle is revealed next, and then we get Skull Kid after that.

Six Characters Remaining

• (38ε) Shadow
• (60ε) Ken
• (69) Skull Kid
• (70) Isaac
• (71) Incineroar
• (72) Geno

Isaac is the other character I feel has been teased by Sakurai, with that picture he specifically tweeted of Rathalos and the Golden Sun camera angle. I want to believe the guy knows what he's doing when it comes to these teases, and more than that, I believe that Isaac fans have waited long enough for...well, for their time in the sun. Thus far, the unique newcomer reveals have alternated between heroes and villains, with Inkling, then Ridley, then Simon, then King K. Rool, then Isabelle. I kept Skull Kid in the 69 slot and put Isaac in 70; this way, we keep this "pattern" going until the very end, with Incineroar qualifying as a villain due to his persona as a heel. It could also go Incineroar -> Isaac -> Skull Kid, but I still think Skull Kid makes the most sense to be revealed next.

This scenario appeals to me the most, not just because it gets us the largest amount of characters, but also because it ends on a nice couple of round numbers. The final total would be 80 characters, and the unique total would be 72, with exactly 8 echoes. That doesn't make it likely, since no other Smash game has ended with a nice round number besides Smash 64, but it sure is appealing. It also gets completely demolished the moment we add DLC into the mix. I'm not gonna delve into my DLC predictions right now, but I might once the game gets closer to launch and we see what the rest of the characters look like. For now, those are my predictions.

Thanks for reading my wall!

I honestly think Skull Kid and Isaac are more likely than Geno. With Geno, it's not just Sakurai who has to sign off on his inclusion, it's Square as well, and they don't have much incentive to include him over a rep from one of their franchises.

 

[AnOkayDM]

I honestly think Skull Kid and Isaac are more likely than Geno. With Geno, it's not just Sakurai who has to sign off on his inclusion, it's Square as well, and they don't have much incentive to include him over a rep from one of their franchises.

They already signed off on his inclusion in the last game. You really think they won't do it again for this one?